DJ ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK -

Majors
Thu Jun 17 19:38:00 EDT 2010
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Following are expected trading ranges and outlooks for nine major
currency pairs today:
Immediate Range Larger Range
USD/JPY 90.49-91.49 90.00-91.82
EUR/USD 1.2337-1.2412 1.2241-1.2452
AUD/USD 0.8604-0.8714 0.8580-0.8837
NZD/USD 0.6988-0.7061 0.6943-0.7129
GBP/USD 1.4771-1.4838 1.4643-1.4855
USD/CHF 1.1091-1.1246 1.0920-1.1339
USD/CAD 1.0220-1.0337 1.0105-1.0360
EUR/JPY 111.62-113.19 110.87-113.38
EUR/GBP 0.8336-0.8382 0.8283-0.8419
(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows, information on the placement of option
strikes, and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)

USD/JPY - to consolidate amid broad-based USD weakness (ICE spot dollar index last 85.69 vs
Wednesday's 86.083 settlement) after soft U.S. data: May CPI dropped 0.2% for second straight
monthly decline, June Philadelphia Fed regional business index slumps to 8 from 21.4 in May
(vs 21 expected), surprise 12,000 increase in latest U.S. weekly claims for jobless benefits
(against forecast for 6,000 fall), less-than-expected 0.4% rise in May U.S. Conference Board's
index of leading economic indicators (vs +0.6% forecast). USD/JPY also undermined by Japan
exporter sales, lower U.S. Treasury yields. But USD/JPY downside limited by USD demand for
import settlements; JPY-funded carry trades amid improved risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eases
3.36% to 25.05), U.S. stock gains overnight (DJIA up 0.24%) as weak U.S. data bolstered
expectations that Fed will keep rates near zero for longer; euro-zone worries eased after
successful Spanish, French government debt auctions. Data focus: 2350 GMT May BOJ
monetary policy meeting minutes. USD/JPY daily chart mixed as stochastics bearish, but MACD
still in bullish mode. Resistance at 91.49 (hourly chart); breach would expose upside to 91.82
(Wednesday's high), then 92.11 (Monday's high), 92.32 (55-day moving average) and 92.89-
92.96 band (June 4 high-May 18 high). Support at 90.49 (yesterday's low); breach would expose
downside to psychological 90.00, then 89.79 (May 26 low), 89.24 (May 25 low) and 88.98 (May
20 reaction low).

EUR/USD - to consolidate with bullish bias. Underpinned by weak USD sentiment, EUR
demand for long-EUR carry trades on better risk appetite, easing fears about Europe's recent
credit crisis after Spanish and French government bond auctions attracted good demand; EUR
demand on rising EUR/GBP cross. But EUR/USD gains tempered by position adjustments
before weekend. Data focus: 0600 GMT German May PPI, 1000 GMT ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo
speaks. EUR/USD daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish, although latter at
overbought, suggesting sideways or higher EUR/USD trading near-term. Resistance at 1.2412
(yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.2452 (May 28 high), then 1.2672 (May 21
reaction high) and 1.2759 (55-day moving average). Support at 1.2337 (hourly chart); breach
would expose downside to 1.2241 (yesterday's low), then 1.2163 (Tuesday's low), 1.2043 (June
11 low) and 1.1954 (June 10 low).

AUD/USD - to consolidate with positive bias. Underpinned by weak USD sentiment, AUD
demand for long-AUD carry trades on increased risk appetite. But AUD/USD gains tempered by
softer commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 0.85 yesterday at 263.3), lingering
concerns China may tighten policy, position adjustments before weekend. AUD/USD daily chart
positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought, suggesting
sideways or higher AUD/USD trading near-term. Resistance at 0.8714 (previous base set May
6); breach would expose upside to 0.8837 (55-day moving average), then 0.8917 (100-day
moving average), 0.8981 (200-day moving average) and psychological 90.00. Support at 0.8604
(hourly chart), then at 0.8580 (yesterday's low, matching Wednesday's low); breach would
expose downside to 0.8503 (Tuesday's low), then 0.8422 (June 11 low), 0.8358 (previous cap set
June 9) and 0.8193 (June 9 low).

NZD/USD - to consolidate with bullish bias. Underpinned by weak USD sentiment, NZD
demand for long-NZD carry trades on higher risk appetite. But NZD/USD gains tempered by
softer commodity prices, lingering concerns about further Chinese monetary tightening, position
adjustments before weekend. NZD/USD daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics
bullish, although latter at overbought, suggesting sideways or higher NZD/USD trading near-
term. Resistance at 0.7061 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.7129 (200-day
average), then 0.7199 (May 12 high) and 0.7295 (May 10 reaction high). Support at 0.6988
(hourly chart), then at 0.6943 (yesterday's low); breach would target 0.6926 (Wednesday's low),
then 0.6883 (Tuesday's low), 0.6799 (June 11 low) and 0.6691 (June 10 low).

GBP/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed higher. Underpinned by broadly weaker USD
undertone, improved market risk sentiment, strong UK May retail sales (rose 0.6% on month vs
+0.3% expected). But GBP/USD gains tempered by GBP sales on rising EUR/GBP cross,
positions adjustment before weekend. Data focus: 0830 GMT UK May CML mortgage lending
figures, May public sector finances, June BOE trends in lending report. GBP/USD daily chart
positive-biased as MACD bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought, suggesting sideways
or higher GBP/USD trading near-term. Resistance at 1.4838 (yesterday's high), then at 1.4855
(Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.4900 (55-day moving average), then
1.4916 (May 13 high), 1.5044-1.5053 band (May 12 high-May 10 high) and 1.5088 (100-day
moving average). Support at 1.4771 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 1.4643
(yesterday's low), then 1.4502 (June 11 low), 1.4393 (June 9 low) and 1.4344 (June 8 reaction
low).

USD/CHF - to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Pair pressured after SNB kept its interest
rate targets unchanged as widely anticipated, but raised growth and inflation forecasts,
suggesting it will refrain from selling CHF on supercharged scale seen recently. "It's a
significantly weaker statement on the intervention policy than what we had expected," said
Ulrich Leuchtmann, chief currencies analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. USD/CHF also
undermined by broadly weak USD undertone; but downside limited by short-CHF carry trades
on positive risk sentiment. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish, although
latter at oversold, suggesting sideways or lower USD/CHF trading near-term. Support at 1.1091
(yesterday's low, near 50% Fibonacci correction of 1.0431-1.1730 April 1-June 1 advance);
breach would expose downside 1.0920 (May 10 reaction low, matching 100-day moving average
and near 61.8% correction), 1.0898 (previous cap set Feb. 19) and 1.0740 (May 3 reaction low).
Resistance at 1.1246 (previous base set Wednesday); breach would expose upside to 1.1329-
1.1339 band (yesterday's high-Wednesday's high), then 1.1481-1.1488 band (Tuesday's high-
Monday's high), 1.1546-1.1555 band (June 11 high-June 9 high) and 1.1641 (June 8 high).

USD/CAD - to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Undermined by positive investor risk
sentiment, weak global USD; but losses tempered by softer commodity & oil prices (Nymex
crude settled down 88 cents yesterday at $76.79/bbl). Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada April
international securities transactions, April job insurance claims, May composite leading
indicators. USD/CAD daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays
suppressed at oversold, suggesting sideways or lower USD/CAD trading near-term. Support at
1.0220 (yesterday's low, matching Wednesday & Monday's lows); breach would expose
downside to 1.0105 (May 13 reaction low), then 1.0098 (May 3 low) and 1.0010 (April 29
reaction low). Resistance at 1.0337 (yesterday's high); breach would target 1.0360 (Tuesday's
high), then 1.0390 (June 11 high), 1.0451 (June 10 high) and 1.0517 (June 9 high).

EUR/JPY - to trade with risks skewed higher. Cross supported by carry trades amid healthier
investor risk appetite, moderating euro-zone debt worries; but gains tempered by position
adjustments before weekend. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics in bullish
mode. Resistance at 113.19 (yesterday's high), then at 113.31-113.38 band (Wednesday's high-
June 4 high); breach would expose upside to 114.16 (June 3 reaction high), then 114.40 (May 21
high), 115.49 (May 18 high) and 117.00 (May 14 high). Support at 111.62 (yesterday's low);
breach would expose downside to 110.87 (Tuesday's low), then 110.26 (June 11 low), 108.94-
108.84 band (June 10 low-June 9 low) and 108.32 (June 8 low).

EUR/GBP - to trade higher. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish; 5-day
moving average staged bullish crossover against 15-day; bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse
signal hit at 0.8363 yesterday. Resistance at 0.8382 (yesterday's high, roughly matching June 2
high); breach would expose upside to 0.8419 (previous base set May 27), then 0.8547 (May 28
high) and 0.8558 (55-day moving average). Support at 0.8336 (yesterday's low); breach would
expose downside to 0.8283 (Wednesday's low), then 0.8259 (Tuesday's low), 0.8206 (19-month
low set June 11) and 0.8195 (previous cap set Oct. 24, 2008).

Disclaimer
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not
consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a
specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the
information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow
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