date

Honda
Yamaha
Kawasaki TVS
1/30/2014
336797
173502
8188
862
2/28/2014
423950
214532
12226
478
3/30/2014
463070
226897
10127
375
4/30/2014
445420
242330
16241
780
5/30/2014
452353
237586
15762
813
6/30/2014
471585
235120
15759
1087
7/30/2014
327364
172377
12709
1119
8/30/2014
388073
182829
16733
1420
9/30/2014
459309
209767
16131
559
10/30/2014 452508
190618
14514
817
11/30/2014 425409
130200
11263
849
12/30/2014 375814
158044
10745
416
1/30/2015
339850
140243
10782
519
2/28/2015
376973
150840
16968
300
3/30/2015
376571
145609
14736
244
4/30/2015
371001
139978
5089
103
5/30/2015
304900
150745
6330
300
6/30/2015
361767
191965
8636
249
7/30/2015
278754
124875
7706
269
8/30/2015
430953
169277
11518
186
9/30/2015
425458
158101
10251
242
10/30/2015 453944
131463
10105
128
11/30/2015 394726
135472
7804
80
12/30/2015 338991
170062
5083
127
1/30/2016
287776
112124
10681
95
2/29/2016
362688
139235
11081
159
3/30/2016
440171
108416
9482
187
4/30/2016
348626
120158
7190
229
5/30/2016
339128
112145
6909
215
6/30/2016
380019
127224
7708
147
7/30/2016
203659
91015
6584
95
8/30/2016
388847
123972
8085
187
9/30/2016
423256
119717
8036
183

Tracking
Report
Dates
Jan-2014
Feb-2014
Mar-2014
Apr-2014
May-2014
Jun-2014
Jul-2014
Aug-2014
Sep-2014
Oct-2014
Nov-2014
Dec-2014
Jan-2015
Feb-2015
Mar-2015
Apr-2015
May-2015
Jun-2015
Jul-2015
Aug-2015
Sep-2015
Oct-2015
Nov-2015
Dec-2015
Jan-2016
Feb-2016
Mar-2016
Apr-2016
May-2016
Jun-2016
Jul-2016
Aug-2016
Sep-2016
Oct-2016
Nov-2016
Dec-2016
Jan-2017
Feb-2017
Mar-2017

Actual

Forecast
336,797.00
423,950.00
463,070.00
445,420.00
452,353.00
471,585.00
327,364.00
388,073.00
459,309.00
452,508.00
425,409.00
375,814.00
339,850.00
376,973.00
376,571.00
371,001.00
304,900.00
361,767.00
278,754.00
430,953.00
425,458.00
453,944.00
394,726.00
338,991.00
287,776.00
362,688.00
440,171.00
348,626.00
339,128.00
380,019.00
203,659.00
388,847.00
423,256.00

Fitted Values466,653.40
358,616.11
433,109.51
433,395.27
458,473.50
444,284.19
375,661.03
396,224.99
451,304.68
414,740.90
346,562.55
383,644.21
365,831.10
423,944.34
407,980.49
347,249.27
354,601.03
402,999.04
345,441.06
407,483.42
388,287.56
372,366.34
362,563.17
368,823.25
363,012.94
383,191.21
348,275.38
340,320.19
333,075.45
352,706.83
320,412.67
350,911.84
347,563.07
347,563.07
359,157.93
319,338.77
327,736.04
346,706.48
367,813.71
327,783.46

Honda

500,000.00
450,000.00
400,000.00
350,000.00
300,000.00
250,000.00
200,000.00
150,000.00
100,000.00
50,000.00
0.00
Jan-2014

Apr-2014

Jul-2014

Oct-2014

Jan-2015

Apr-2015

Actual

Jul-2015

Forecast

Multiple Regression -- Result Formula

Honda = 213,158.17 + ( (Yamaha) * 0.754264 ) + ( (Kawasaki) * 6.51 ) + ( (TVS) * -44.93 )
Forecast -- Multiple Regression Selected
Date
Oct-2016
Nov-2016
Dec-2016
Jan-2017
Feb-2017
Mar-2017
Total
Avg
Max
Min
Summary Comments

Monthly
359,157.93
319,338.77
327,736.04
346,706.48
367,813.71
327,783.46
2,048,536.39
341,422.73
367,813.71
319,338.77

Forecast
Quarterly

1,006,232.73

Annual

1,006,232.73

1,042,303.66
1,024,268.19
1,042,303.66
1,006,232.73

1,006,232.73
1,006,232.73
1,006,232.73

Oct-2015

Jan-2016

Fitted Values

Apr-2016

Jul-2016

Oct-2016

Jan-2017

The forecast has an average error of

The data has a standard deviation of
The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by

10.88%
61,945.30
40.89%

Audit Trail - Summary Analysis

Audit Trail - Historical Versus Fitted Analysis
Series:Honda
Dates
Jan-2014
Feb-2014
Mar-2014
Apr-2014
May-2014
Jun-2014
Jul-2014
Aug-2014
Sep-2014
Oct-2014
Nov-2014
Dec-2014
Jan-2015
Feb-2015
Mar-2015
Apr-2015
May-2015
Jun-2015
Jul-2015
Aug-2015
Sep-2015
Oct-2015
Nov-2015
Dec-2015
Jan-2016
Feb-2016
Mar-2016
Apr-2016
May-2016
Jun-2016
Jul-2016
Aug-2016
Sep-2016
Avg

Original Data
336,797.00
423,950.00
463,070.00
445,420.00
452,353.00
471,585.00
327,364.00
388,073.00
459,309.00
452,508.00
425,409.00
375,814.00
339,850.00
376,973.00
376,571.00
371,001.00
304,900.00
361,767.00
278,754.00
430,953.00
425,458.00
453,944.00
394,726.00
338,991.00
287,776.00
362,688.00
440,171.00
348,626.00
339,128.00
380,019.00
203,659.00
388,847.00
423,256.00
383,324.55

Fitted Data
358,616.11
433,109.51
433,395.27
466,653.40
458,473.50
444,284.19
375,661.03
396,224.99
451,304.68
414,740.90
346,562.55
383,644.21
365,831.10
423,944.34
407,980.49
347,249.27
354,601.03
402,999.04
345,441.06
407,483.42
388,287.56
372,366.34
362,563.17
368,823.25
363,012.94
383,191.21
348,275.38
340,320.19
333,075.45
352,706.83
320,412.67
350,911.84
347,563.07
383,324.55

Error
-21,819.11
-9,159.51
29,674.73
-21,233.40
-6,120.50
27,300.81
-48,297.03
-8,151.99
8,004.32
37,767.10
78,846.45
-7,830.21
-25,981.10
-46,971.34
-31,409.49
23,751.73
-49,701.03
-41,232.04
-66,687.06
23,469.58
37,170.44
81,577.66
32,162.83
-29,832.25
-75,236.94
-20,503.21
91,895.62
8,305.81
6,052.55
27,312.17
-116,753.67
37,935.16
75,692.93
0.00

Series % Change
25.88%
9.23%
-3.81%
1.56%
4.25%
-30.58%
18.54%
18.36%
-1.48%
-5.99%
-11.66%
-9.57%
10.92%
-0.11%
-1.48%
-17.82%
18.65%
-22.95%
54.60%
-1.28%
6.70%
-13.05%
-14.12%
-15.11%
26.03%
21.36%
-20.80%
-2.72%
12.06%
-46.41%
90.93%
8.85%
3.41%

Forecast % Change
20.77%
0.07%
7.67%
-1.75%
-3.09%
-15.45%
5.47%
13.90%
-8.10%
-16.44%
10.70%
-4.64%
15.89%
-3.77%
-14.89%
2.12%
13.65%
-14.28%
17.96%
-4.71%
-4.10%
-2.63%
1.73%
-1.58%
5.56%
-9.11%
-2.28%
-2.13%
5.89%
-9.16%
9.52%
-0.95%
0.37%

Cumulative Error
-21,819.11
-15,489.31
-434.63
-5,634.32
-5,731.56
-226.16
-7,093.43
-7,225.75
-5,533.52
-1,203.46
6,073.81
4,915.14
2,538.50
-997.91
-3,025.35
-1,351.78
-4,195.86
-6,253.42
-9,434.14
-7,788.95
-5,648.03
-1,683.23
-211.66
-1,445.85
-4,397.49
-5,016.94
-1,427.59
-1,079.97
-834.02
104.19
-3,665.42
-2,365.40
0.00
-3,563.11

Max
Min
StDev
Var
Median

471,585.00
203,659.00
61,945.30
3,837,219,692.44
380,019.00

466,653.40
320,412.67
39,611.68
1,569,085,514.84
372,366.34

91,895.62
-116,753.67
47,624.93
2,268,134,177.60
-6,120.50

90.93%
-46.41%
25.05%
6.28%
-0.69%

20.77%
-16.44%
9.87%
0.98%
-1.66%

6,073.81
-21,819.11
5,263.77
27,707,309.98
-2,365.40

Audit Trail -- ANOVA Table (Multiple Regression Selected)

Source of variation
Regression
Error
Total

SS
50,210,736,474.87
72,580,293,683.31
122,791,030,158.18

df
3
29
32

MS
16,736,912,158.29
2,502,768,747.70

SEE

Standard error
39,756.01
0.29
3.49
34.68

T-test

50,027.68

Audit Trail -- Coefficient Table (Multiple Regression Selected)

Series Description
Honda
Yamaha
Kawasaki
TVS

Included in model
Dependent
Yes
Yes
Yes

Coefficient
213,158.17
0.75
6.51
-44.93

P-value
5.36
2.62
1.87
-1.30

Elasticity
0.00
0.01
0.07
0.21

Audit Trail -- Correlation Coefficient Table

Series Description
Honda
Yamaha
Kawasaki
TVS

Included in model
Dependent
Yes
Yes
Yes

Honda

Yamaha
1.00
0.58
0.51
0.28

Kawasaki
0.58
1.00
0.61
0.59

TVS
0.51
0.61
1.00
0.64

0.28
0.59
0.64
1.00

Audit Trail - Statistics

Accuracy Measures
MAPE
R-Square
Method Statistics
Method Selected

Value
10.88%
40.89%
Value
Multiple Regression

ForecastX Configuration Parameters

Item
Data range selected
Time scale for data
Periods to forecast
Seasonal Length

Value
[TUGAS BF BOSS.xlsx]SOAL DAN JAWABAN A'!$A$8:$E$41
Monthly
6.00

Forecast Statistics
Mean
Standard Deviation

0.31
0.18
-0.05

Replace Outliers Activated

Replace Outliers Standard Deviations
Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique
Replace Missing Values
Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit)
Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit)
Remove Leading Zeroes
Remove Trailing Zeroes
Use Holdback Evaluation
Holdback Evaluation Period
Apply Tracking Signal
Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage)
Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage)
Forecast Method Selected
Report Details
Run Date: 11/1/2016 11:27:48 AM
Author: Daniel
Note:

No

No

No
No
No
No

Multiple Regression

16

Oct-2016

Jan-2017

Cumulative MAPE
6.48%
3.78%
3.23%
2.72%
2.23%
2.02%
2.03%
1.81%
1.63%
1.55%
1.56%
1.45%
1.38%
1.35%
1.29%
1.24%
1.22%
1.19%
1.19%
1.15%
1.11%
1.10%
1.07%
1.04%
1.04%
1.01%
1.00%
0.96%
0.93%
0.91%
0.94%
0.92%
0.91%
1.62%

6.48%
0.91%
1.11%
0.01%
1.22%

Overall F-test
6.69

Value
383,324.55
61,945.30