Navigating the change

@
The International Potato Center (CIP)
CSI 2010
Lieven Claessens
Roberto Quiroz, Reinhard Simon, Rubi Raymundo,
Adolfo Posadas, Percy Zorogastua
The three top stories (not all new…):
 Crop modeling in the context of climate change
• Development of potato model GeoSolanum
• Sweet potato crop model
• Pest and disease modeling
• Improving rainfall data in mountains
• Crop modelers united!
 High resolution remote sensing
• Stress detection with low cost airborne platforms
 Environmental vulnerability assessments

• Erosion mapping in the Nile Basin

• Landslide prediction in Uganda: communicating research results
Crop modeling in the context of climate change:
• Potato model ‘GeoSolanum’:
- Currently temperature and solar radiation based
- Water and nutrient limited simulation under development
- Limited amount of potato varieties parameterized (mainly Latin American,
none for Africa,….)
Crop modeling in the context of climate change:
• Potato & climate:

Temperature Requirements:
mean daily temperatures 18 to 20°C
night temperature below 15°C
(required for tuber initiation)
temperatures below 10°C and above
30°C inhibit tuber growth A. Effect of temperature on the metabolic reaction rate B. Effect of soil temperature on the emergency rate of
potato plants
Reaction Rate Optimal t°
%

Water Requirements:

Emergency Rate
500 to 700 mm for a 120 to 150 d
growing season Temperature ( °C )
Temperature ( °C )

C. Effect of temperature on photosynthesis and D. Relationship between total dry matter and intercepted
respiration in potato solar energy under different environmental conditions

Respiration/photosynthesis rates
(gCO2 cm -2 hoja min -1

Cummulative DM (gcm-2)
Cold weather + water
B = 2.0
Total Warm weather + water
photosynthesis B = 1.2
Net hesis
ynt
h o tos Warm weather w/o water
p B = 0.8
Respiration

Air temperature ( °C ) Intercepted solar radiation

Crop modeling in the context of climate change:
• Potato model ‘GeoSolanum’:
- Potential potato production:
Crop modeling in the context of climate change:
• Potato model GeoSolanum:
- Potential number of growing seasons in CIP target countries:
Crop modeling in the context of climate change:
• Potato model GeoSolanum:
- Productivity changes with frost tolerant potato variety:
Crop modeling in the context of climate change:
• Potato modeling with FAO EcoCrop (optimal T and R range):
- Suitability changes with heat tolerant potato (25° to 28°) in East Africa:

2050 climate
2050climate
Current climate
Heat tolerant
Crop modeling in the context of climate change:
• Sweet Potato crop model

- Ready for 4 Latin American varieties

- Destructive trials for 4 African varieties ongoing in Kiboko, Kenya
Crop modeling in the context of climate change:
• Pest and disease modeling

- For important potato pests with climate dependent life cycles/spreading:

Late Blight, Bacterial Wilt, Tuber Moth, Yellow Vein Virus,…

- Nothing for sweet potato yet…

- Challenge: link pest model results (severity, number of sprays,..) to crop

growth simulation (yield effects)….
Crop modeling in the context of climate change:
• Pest and disease modeling
- Climate scenarios for potato tuber moth:

B
Crop modeling in the context of climate change:
• Pest and disease modeling
- Risk mapping for potato yellow vein virus:
Crop modeling in the context of climate change:
Improving Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall estimates in mountains
with Inverse Discrete Wavelet Transform methodology

Quiroz et al., in press, Environmental Modeling and Software

Crop modeling in the context of climate change:
• Crop modelers united!

- Collaboration through IFPRI on crop atlasses (spatial allocation model): overlay crop
modeling results with areas where the crop is actually grown!

- Collaboration through IFPRI on parameterizing DSSAT (for IMPACT model) with

relevant potato and sweet potato cultivars (Global Futures & CCAFS, post-docs @
several cgiar centers).
High resolution Remote Sensing
• Stress detection:
- Low cost air-borne platforms for high resolution RS
- Spectral signatures of disease symptoms
- Early warning applications (e.g. drought)
 Drought detection

NDVI
0-0.1
0.1-0.2
0.2-0.3
0.3-0.4
0.4-0.5
0.5-0.6
Fresh yield (t/ha)
<16
>24

Normal irrigation

Deficit irrigation Terminal drought

Stress detection: potato yellow vein virus (distinct spectral signature)
Environmental Vulnerability Assessments:
- Modeling scenarios of agricultural intensification and climate change
 Soil erosion in the Nile Basin (with ILRI): hotspots of vulnerability
Environmental Vulnerability Assessments:
- Modeling scenarios of agricultural intensification and climate change
 Landslide hazard mapping in Uganda:
1st of March 2010
1st of March 2010

?
Navigating the change…:
 Crop modeling in the context of climate change
• Ongoing collaborations, with funding (Global Futures, CCAFS)!
 High resolution remote sensing
• Not limited to (sweet)potato: MP5?
 Environmental vulnerability assessments

• Other centers doing this (e.g. IWMI flooding, CIAT-TSBF soil fertility,
ICRISAT drought mapping, ILRI water productivity, …)? More?

• MP5?
THANK YOU