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October 2016
INTRODUCTION
to access a deep
web of
information
Enabling small
businesses to
reach a wider
customer base
Applications for
mobile internet
Improving labour
market matching
A source of
education via
distance learning
A social
connector of
people
INTRODUCTION
RESEARCH BACKGROUND
Over the past six months Oxford Economics has been engaged in an extensive
research project to quantify the economic benefits of mobile internet technology. A
multi-stage modelling programme has enabled us to estimate:
1. The historic contribution of mobile internet to GDP and jobs from 2010-2015;
2. The projected forecast contribution of mobile internet to GDP and jobs from
2015-2020; and
3. How this activity has and will continue to boost government revenues and
thus could support investments in social infrastructure.
The geographic focus of our analysis was ASEAN but here we drill down on our
results for Indonesia.
INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION
120
Australasia
100
N.America
W.Europe
80
60
E.Europe
N.E.Asia
World
S.E.Asia
40
Mobile internet
penetration in SEA
remains slightly
below the global
average.
However, the gap has
narrowed significantly
since 2012, a trend
we expect to continue
going forward.
20
Sub-Saharan Africa
S.Asia
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
INTRODUCTION
Indonesia
20
15
10
5
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
12,000
300
10,000
250
8,000
200
6,000
10,900
150
260
4,000
100
2,000
50
0
GDP (Left-hand axis)
Manufacturing
Distribution
Construction
Agriculture
Public Services
Information and Communications
Transport
Business Services
Equivalent to 4.6%
of recorded GDP
growth during this
period.
Financial Services
Mobile Internet
10.9
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
*The contribution of mobile internet refers to how it is estimated to have boosted the
economys supply side capacity whereas sectoral figures show their demand-side
contribution to GDP growth.
Thailand
Overall boost to
output worth 1.3%
of 2015 GDP.
Malaysia
Singapore
SE Asia
Vietnam
Philippines
Indonesia
1.3%
Myanmar
Cambodia
Brunei
Lao PDR
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
10
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Indonesia
20
South East Asia
10
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Subscription rate in
Indonesia forecast to
rise to around 90%
by 2020.
Baseline forecast
sees Indonesia
gradually move
above regional
average.
2020
11
30.1
Transport
Information and Communications
Business Services
Financial Services
Extraction
Hotels & Accommodation
Other Services
Utilities
0
Source: Oxford Economics
20
40
60
80
*The contribution of mobile internet refers to how it is estimated to have boosted the
economys supply side capacity whereas sectoral figures show their demand-side
contribution to GDP growth.
100
$30.1 billion
equivalent to 5.2% of
forecast growth up to
2020.
12
Forecast contribution
to employment
growth*, 2015-2020Public Services
Trade
Construction
Manufacturing
498
Extraction
Utilities
Agriculture
0
Source: Oxford Economics
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
*The contribution of mobile internet refers to how it is estimated to have boosted the
economys supply side capacity whereas sectoral figures show their demand-side
contribution to employment growth.
Contribution stands
alongside major
industries such as
financial and business
services and transport
and communications.
13
We expect growth in
mobile internet to
translate into
substantial gains
going forward.
2.4%
SE Asia
Myanmar
Vietnam
Cambodia
Philippines
Baseline forecast of a
boost worth 2.4% of
GDP, the best in the
ASEAN region.
Lao PDR
Malaysia
Thailand
Brunei
Singapore
0%
Source: Oxford Economics
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
14
15
Baseline forecast
Upside scenario
40,000
Jobs, '000s
700
35,000
6,400
30,000
600
110
500
25,000
400
20,000
300
15,000
30,100
500
200
10,000
100
5,000
0
0
GDP (Left-hand axis)
16
17
OCTOBER 2016
All data shown in tables and charts is Oxford Economics own data, and is
copyright Oxford Economics Ltd, except where otherwise stated and cited in
footnotes.
The modeling and results presented here are based on information provided by
third parties, upon which Oxford Economics has relied in producing its report and
forecasts in good faith. Any subsequent revision or update of those data will affect
the assessments and projections shown.
To discuss the report further please contact:
Henry Worthington: hworthington@oxfordeconomics.com
Oxford Economics
Broadwall House, 21 Broadwall, London, SE1 9PL, UK
Tel: +44 207 803 1425
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