A Risk-Based Model For Determining Allowable Admixed Chloride Limits in Concrete

International RILEM Conference on Materials, Systems and Structures in Civil Engineering
Conference segment on service life of cement-based materials and structures

22-24 August 2016, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark
A RISK-BASED MODEL FOR DETERMINING ALLOWABLE

ADMIXED CHLORIDE LIMITS IN CONCRETE
Mahmoud Shakouri, (1) David Trejo, (1) and Paolo Gardoni (2)
(1) Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, 97331, USA
(2) University of Illinois at Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
Abstract
Chlorides can be detrimental to the corrosion of steel in concrete. As a result, many
organizations limit the amount of admixed chlorides that can be included in new concrete for
reinforced concrete structures. However, because chlorides are ubiquitous in most constituent
materials used to make concrete, eliminating all chlorides from the constituent materials would
make most concrete systems uneconomical. In addition, there is little consensus within the
concrete community on how much chloride can be allowed in new concrete - a wide variety of
limits are currently specified. This paper identifies variables that influence the service life of
conventionally reinforced concrete systems exposed to chloride environments. It also proposes
a general outline for a risk-based framework that can be used to specify allowable chloride
limits in concrete. The allowable admixed chloride limit in the proposed framework is based
on structure type and importance, constituent materials, exposure conditions, and risk level
desired by the owner.
1.
Introduction
Corrosion is a leading factor in the degradation of reinforced concrete structures in the United
States. According to a study conducted by National Association of Corrosion Engineers
(NACE), the annual direct cost of metallic corrosion in the United States exceeds $276 billion
which represents 3.1% of the U.S. gross domestic product [1]. Moreover, the Federal Highway
Administration estimates that repairing and maintaining concrete bridges in the United States
costs $20.5 billion annually [2].
Chloride induced corrosion is known to be the major cause of corrosion of reinforcing steel and
deterioration of concrete structures exposed to marine environments, de-icing or anti-icing salts.
The transport of chlorides in concrete is a complex phenomena that often depends on a
combination of transport mechanisms, i.e., advection, convection, diffusion, migration, and
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permeation. However, it is commonly assumed that chloride ingress into concrete mimics
diffusion and, therefore Ficks second law, as follows, is commonly used to evaluate the rate of
chloride ingress:
dc d dc
D
dt dx dx
(1)
where c is the percent chloride concentration (% mass) at time t, D is the chloride diffusion
coefficient (length2/time), and x is the depth below the exposed surface (length.)
Equation 2 gives the most common solution to the one-dimensional Ficks second law,
commonly referred to as the error function, and is based on the assumptions of a constant
diffusion coefficient and a constant surface chloride concentration.
x
C x, t Cs Cs Ci erf
4D t
a
(2)
Here, C(x,t) (% mass) is the chloride concentration measured at depth x and exposure time t
(second), Cs (% mass) is the chloride concentration at the interface between the exposure
environment and concrete, Ci (% mass) is the initial chloride concentration of the concrete
mixture prior to exposure to chlorides, Da (length2/time) is the apparent chloride diffusion
coefficient, and is the error function. Here Da is an apparent diffusion coefficient because
it accounts for all transport mechanisms and chloride binding.
The time to corrosion initiation can be determined deterministically by substituting C(x,t) with
the critical chloride threshold, CT, in Eq 2 and solving for t as shown in Eq 3. CT is the chloride
concentration that results in active corrosion at the steel reinforcement
1
ti
1.2614 108 Da
inverf
CT Cs

Ci Cs
(3)
Here ti is the time to corrosion initiation, inverf is the inverse error function, and the factor in
the denominator converts time units from seconds to years.
To reduce the likelihood of developing corrosion, several organizations in the U.S., such as
American Concrete Institute (ACI) and many State Highway Agencies (SHAs), have published
documents with values of the maximum amount of allowable admixed chlorides (CA) that can
be included in a new reinforced concrete structures so that Ci CA [3]. However, allowable
admixed chlorides limits vary from one document to another resulting in confusion for the users
of such documents. While some documents base chloride limits on percent by weight of
portland cement only, other documents used percent by weight of cement purportedly, or
percent by weight of cementitious materials. An example of this wide variation of the allowable
admixed chloride limits is provided next. In this paper CA is expressed as percent by weight of
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portland cement. Table 1 provides a sample mixture and typical values of the concrete
properties that can be used to determine the time to corrosion.
Table 1. Mixture proportions and parameters to determine time to corrosion
Mixture Proportions
Parameter
Cement
Water
Fine aggregate
Coarse
aggregate
Time to Corrosion Parameters

Kg/m3
(lb/yd3)
420 (708)
206 (347)
683 (1151)
Parameter
Value
x
Da
CT
62 mm (2.4 in.)
210 m2/sec (3.110-9 in.2/sec)
1.2 (% by wt of cement)
981 (1654)
Cs
Ci
-12
Figure 1 shows the variability in the allowable admixed chloride limits specified by ACI and
the SHAs for the concrete mixture provided in Table 1. ACI has 12 documents with four
different chloride limit values for reinforced concrete ranging from 0.06 to 0.3 percent by
weight of cement. Specified limits published by the SHAs vary even more significantly. In
some cases these limits differ by several orders of magnitude from each other (e.g., 0.05 kg/m3
(0.08 lb/yd3) in Georgia vs. 0.63 kg/m3 (1.06 lb/yd3) in Delaware).
Figure 1. Specified allowable admixed chloride limits by SHAs and ACI for reinforced
concrete
Using the values in Table 1, a sensitivity plot for the time to corrosion is created and shown in
Figure 2. The abscissa in this figure represents the percent changes in the variables in Eq 3 and
the ordinate shows the percent changes in the time to corrosion. For example, if Ci is reduced
by 60 percent (i.e. from 0.3 to 0.12 percent by weight of cement) the time to corrosion increases
by approximately 22 percent (from 41 years in the baseline to 50 years). Similarly, a 40 percent
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increase in the Cs (i.e. from 2.6 to 3.64 percent by weight of cement) results in a 40 percent
reduction in the time to corrosion. Note that the slope of the lines for each variable in Figure 2
determines how sensitive the time to corrosion is to that variable. A steeper curve for a variable
indicates that the time to corrosion is more sensitive to that variable. Figure 2 shows that Ci can
significantly affect the time to corrosion. Increasing admixed chlorides (Ci) can reduce the time
to corrosion and vice versa. This is important as the limits on admixed chlorides vary widely.
Figure 2. Sensitivity plot for time to corrosion

Lack of consensus on the allowable admixed chloride limits has created a great deal of
confusion among designers and contractors [4]. The question that arises here is: What should
be the limit on the allowable admixed chloride? This is an important question because chloride
limits that are too low will make the construction of concrete structures uneconomical and high
chloride limits result in shorter lifespans, possibly making the economics of the structure
unfeasible. The objective of this paper is to fill this gap by developing a risk-based framework
that allows owners to systematically select an appropriate allowable admixed chloride limit
based on structure type and importance, exposure conditions, and risk preference of the owner.
2. Methodology for Selecting CA

The proposed risk-based framework is shown in Figure 3. This framework will allow decision
makers to set allowable admixed chloride limits (CA) based on the structure type and its
importance, exposure conditions, constituent materials, and the owners risk preference. The
framework presented in this paper is based on Monte Carlo simulation. In this approach, a large
dataset for time to corrosion is produced by using random input values from the Da, CT, Cs
distributions and deterministic values for CA. Using a deterministic CA allows for comparing
the influence of allowable admixed chloride on the time to corrosion in a controlled manner.
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Note that it is assumed that initial chloride concentraction Ci is equal to allowable admixed
chloride limit CA. In the first step of this process, an engineer determines the concrete mixture
proportions. The constituent materials of a concrete mixture can affect Da, CT, and Cs [5, 6]. To
account for this variability, many researchers use probabilistic methods to determine the time
to corrosion [7-12]. In the probabilistic methods, a distribution is used for the variable under
study. These distributions are either assumed [13, 14] or determined by fitting distributions to
laboratory or field data using the goodness of fit test [15, 16].
Figure 3. The proposed risk-based framework algorithm to determine allowable admixed

chloride
Table 2 presents some of the distributions used by different authors reported in the literature.
Note that incorrect selection of a distribution can result in an inaccurate estimate of the time to
corrosion. That being said, the objective of this paper is to only demonstrate how the proposed
framework can be used to specify allowable admixed chloride limits. Thus, determining the
true distributions for the input parameters is left for future work.
The dashed box in Figure 3 represents an iterative process to obtain a distribution for the time
to corrosion by using random values from the Da, CT, x, and Cs distributions, and a deterministic
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value for CA. For each value of CA, 10,000 iterations are performed and the output distribution
for the time to corrosion is used to generate curves for reliability analysis. Then if CA is less
than the 50th percentile of CT, an incremental value (e.g., = 0.1 ) is added to CA and the whole
process is repeated again. The 50th percentile for CT is an arbitrary value. Note that admixed
chloride values that are close to critical chloride threshold will result in shorter service life. The
KaplanMeier method [17], a non-parametric survival analysis technique is used to estimate
the survival and hazard functions for the time to corrosion.
Table 2. Published distributions to determine time to corrosion, (mean, SD)
Reference Da (m2/sec) 10-12
x (mm)
CT (varies)
Cs (varies)
U(0.6-0.17)
LN(2.95, 1.47)
(kg/m3)
(kg/m3)
LN(1.35, 0.135)
LN(4.56, 1.82)
[15]
LN(1.61, 0.475)
N(36.6, 16.5)
(kg/m3)
(kg/m3)
N(0.07, 0.007)
N(0.63, 0.10)
[16]
N(1.29, 0.28)
N(60, 5.0)
(% wt conc.)
(% wt conc.)
N(0.5, 0. 1)
N(15, 3)
[18]
LN(6, 1.2)
N(60, 15)
(% wt cem.)
(kg/m3)
N(1.2, 0.24)
N(13.1, 1.35)
[19]
LN(3.87, 2)
N(161, 37)
(kg/m3)
(kg/m3)
N(0.5, 0.1)
[20]
LN(30, 0.6)
N(40, 10)
NA
(% wt cem.)
N(0.05,0.01)
N(1,0.3)
[21]
N(8.87, 0.222)
N(60, 5)
(% wt conc.)
(% wt conc.)
* LN= Lognormal distribution; N= Normal distribution; U= Uniform distribution
[12]
LN (0.0159,0.0119)
N(40, 20)
Table 3 presents the distributions of the parameters used in this study. For consistency, the
mean parameters are assumed to be the same values given in Table 1.
In the context of concrete structures exposed to chlorides, the survival function denotes the
probability that a concrete structure given a specified admixed chloride limit survives up to
time t; that is
S t | CA 1 P t ti | C A 1 F t | C A
(4)
where S is the survival function for time t and F t | CA is the cumulative density function that
is also known as failure function given the selected value of CA. Here survive means no
occurrence of corrosion in any parts of the structure.
To create a hazard function, also known as a failure rate function, the ratio of the probability
density function to the survival function is determined. This ratio is interpreted as the
instantaneous failure rate at any point in time. The cumulative hazard function is generally used
for reliability analysis and is the integral of the hazard function up to the time t; that is
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H t | CA
t
f t | CA
f t | CA
ln 1 F t | C A
0 1 F t | C
S t | CA
A
(5)
Where H is the cumulative hazard function and f(t) is probability mass function.
Table 3. Modeling parameters for the probabilistic time to corrosion initiation
CT
Cs
CA
Da (m2/sec) 10-12 x (mm)
(%wt cem.) (%wt cem.) (% wt cem.)
N(2, 0.5)
N(62, 8) N(1.2,0.1)
N(2.6,0.22) Deterministic range 0-0.9
The simplicity of interpreting survival and hazard plots is the main reason for the wide
application of such plots in reliability analysis. These plots can help decision makers compare
the effect of different admixed chloride limits on the time to corrosion and select the limit that
suits their purpose based on their risk preference.
3. Results
Figure 4 summarizes the result of the Monte Carlo simulation (n=10,000) for the time to
corrosion by using the probability distributions shown in Table 3. The Anderson-Darling
goodness of fit was conducted on the simulated data to determine the distributions of the time
to corrosion for different admixed chloride limits. Results show that the variability in the time
to corrosion can be modeled using a positively skewed distribution that follows a threeparameter lognormal distribution with the location parameter , scale parameter , and shape
parameter as shown in Figure 4. Overall, the magnitude and spread of the time to corrosion
reduces as the admixed chloride limit increases. This finding corroborates with the sensitivity
plot shown in Figure 1.
Figure 4. Histogram of time to corrosion for different CA limits
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The Kaplan-Meier survival curves for different admixed chloride limits are shown in Figure 5a.
The abscissa of the graph represents the survival duration, i.e., time to corrosion, and the
ordinate shows the cumulative probability of surviving up to a specified time. For example, if
no chloride is included in the concrete mixture proportions (i.e., CA =0.0%), the probability of
surviving 20 years is 100%. For the concrete containing 0.6% admixed chloride by weight of
cement, the probability of surviving the same time is slightly less than 80%. The curves with
lower survival durations have steeper slopes and vice versa.
Figure 5. Reliability analysis for the time to corrosion, (a) survival plot; (b) hazard plot
Figure 5b shows the cumulative hazard plot for the time to corrosion. The abscissa represents
the time and the ordinate represents the cumulative probability of failure, i.e., corrosion. For
example, for the concrete containing no admixed chloride, the probability of failure for the first
20 years is equal to zero, i.e., no hazard. Over time, as the concrete is exposed to chlorides, the
probability of failure increases resulting in an increase in the cumulative hazard. Comparing
the hazard plots of different admixed chloride concentrations reveals that the inclusion for more
chlorides in a concrete mixture results in significantly higher hazard in the early years. As with
the survival plot, the slopes of the curves are steeper for the concrete with more admixed
chloride. The slopes of the curves eventually become parallel, demonstrating the corrosion of
all concrete types at later ages.
Using the concrete mixture proportions in Table 1 and the allowable admixed chloride limits
specified by the SHAs shown in Figure 1 reveals that, for example, in the State of Nevada
(CA=0.022 lb/yd3708 lb/yd3100=0.003% by weight of cement) the 50-50 chance of corrosion
results in the service life of approximately 56 years. In Delaware, that has a less stringent
allowable admixed chloride limit (CA=1.06 lb/yd3708 lb/yd3100=0.14% by weight of
cement), the service life for the same probability is approximately 48 years. Assuming that the
specified allowable admixed chloride is followed, this means that, depending on the type of
specification, the service life of a concrete in two States, can be reduced by 8 years or 14%.
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4. Discussion and Conclusion

Lack of a standardized and a systematic approach to setting allowable admixed chloride limits
is a major obstacle to specifying a reasonable allowable admixed chloride limit for concrete.
In fact, the wide variations of the limits currently published indicate that specifiers do not
understand the influence of admixed chlorides on the time to corrosion. This paper proposed a
framework to allow decision makers to set allowable admixed chloride limits based on their
risk preference. The present study is based on the premise that structure type and its importance,
exposure conditions, constituent materials, and an owners risk preference are the important
factors that should be taken into account when specifying allowable admixed chloride limits.
Structures that are designed to last for a long time, have high importance, and are located in
chloride laden environments should abide by more stringent chloride limits as opposed to
structures that are designed to last only for a short period of time, have lower importance and
are not exposed to chlorides.
In the proposed framework, the time to corrosion of a concrete mixture is determined by using
probabilistic methods. In this regard, with respect to the type of constituent materials and
exposure conditions, a probability distribution is selected for Da, CT, x, and Cs. Then, time to
corrosion is determined for a set of deterministic values of CA using the Monte Carlo approach.
The outputs of this framework are a survival and a hazard plot. Decision makers can compare
survival and hazard curves of different admixed chloride limits and based on their risk
preference select the most appropriate admixed chloride limit. The selection criteria fall into
the managerial domain. Several factors can be influential at this stage. The first and most
important factor is cost. Obviously, using the lowest admixed chloride limit will result in the
longest service life of the structure but as a trade-off, the cost of removing all chlorides or using
materials with no chlorides can make the project economically unfeasible. Financial valuation
for different chloride limits by considering the initial and service costs can paint a clearer
picture for the decision makers. Other influential factors are, but not limited to availability of
resources, time constraints, and quality.
According to the framework presented here, there is no universal allowable admixed chloride
limit. Admixed chloride limits are project specific and can vary significantly from one project
to another. This research is the first step in developing a systematic approach to specifying
admixed chloride limits. The results of this paper should be of value to those who need to make
critical decisions on setting limits for allowable admixed chlorides in concrete. To improve this
framework, future research should focus on 1) determining the true distributions for the input
parameters, and 2) developing a method for financial valuation of allowable admixed chloride
limits.
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A Risk-Based Model For Determining Allowable Admixed Chloride Limits in Concrete

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International RILEM Conference on Materials, Systems and Structures in Civil Engineering

Conference segment on service life of cement-based materials and structures