WorkedExamplesforChapter17

ExampleforSection17.4
Aqueueingsystemhastwoserverswhoseservicetimesareindependentrandom
variableswithanexponentialdistributionwithameanof15minutes.CustomerX
arriveswhenbothserversareidle.Fiveminuteslater,customerYarrivesandcustomer
Xstillisbeingserved.Another10minuteslater,customerZarrivesandbothcustomer
XandYarestillbeingserved.Noothercustomerarrivedduringthis15minute
interval.
(a)WhatistheprobabilitythatcustomerXwillcompleteservicebeforecustomer
Y?
ByProperty2oftheexponentialdistribution(thelackofmemoryproperty)givenin
Sec.17.4,whencustomerYarrives,theremainingtimeuntilcustomerXcompletes
servicehasthesamedistributionastheservicetimeforcustomerY,sotheyareequally
likelytofinishfirst.Thus,theprobabilitythatcustomerXwillcompleteservicebefore
customerYis0.5.
(b)WhatistheprobabilitythatcustomerZwillcompleteservicebeforecustomer
X?
CustomerZcannotbeginserviceuntileithercustomerXorcustomerYcompletes
service.GiventhatcustomerYcompletesservicefirst(whichhasprobability0.5from
part(a)),thenthereasoningofpart(a)impliesthattheprobabilitythatcustomerZ
completesservicebeforecustomerXis0.5.Therefore,theunconditionalprobability
thatcustomerZwillcompleteservicebeforecustomerXis0.5(0.5)=0.25.
(c)WhatistheprobabilitythatcustomerZwillcompleteservicebeforecustomer
Y?
Bythesamereasoningasinpart(b),theprobabilitythatcustomerZwillcomplete
servicebeforecustomerYis0.5(0.5)=0.25.
(d)Determinethecumulativedistributionfunctionofthewaitingtimeinthe
systemforcustomerX.Alsodeterminethemeanandstandarddeviation.
WearegiventhatcustomerXhasnotcompletedserviceafter15minutes.ByProperty
2,theremainingtimeuntilserviceiscompletedstillhasanexponentialdistribution
withamean(andstandarddeviation)of15minutes.Therefore,inunitsofminutes,the
CDFofthewaitingtimeinthesystemforcustomerXis

 0,
fort 15
P{Tt}=
t 15/15
, fort 15 .
1 e
Sincetheremainingtimeafter15minuteshasameanandstandarddeviationof15
minutes,themeanofthetotaltimeis15+15=30minutes.Thefirst15minutesarea
fixedconstant,sothestandarddeviationofthetotaltimecontinuestobethestandard
deviationoftheremainingtime,namely,15minutes.
(e)Repeatpart(d)forcustomerY.
Thereasoningisthesameasforpart(d),exceptnowthegiventimewithoutcompleting
serviceis10minutesinsteadof15minutes.
Therefore,
0,
fort 10
P{Tt}=
1 e t 10 /15 , fort 10 .
Themeanis10+15=25minutesandthestandarddeviationis15minutes.
(f)Determinetheexpectedvalueandstandarddeviationofthewaitingtimeinthe
systemforcustomerZ.
ThewaitingtimeinthesystemforcustomerZis

W = W q+T,
whereWqisthewaitingtimeinthequeueandTistheservicetime.Thewaitingtimein
thequeueisthetimeuntileithercustomerXorcustomerYcompletesserviceafter
customerZarrives.ByProperties2and3inSec.17.4,thistimeuntileithercustomerX
orcustomerYcompletesserviceaftercustomerZarriveshasanexponential
distributionwithamean(andstandarddeviation)of

E Wq = 1 1 =7.5minutes.
15 15
Consequently,sinceE(T)=15minutesandVar(T)=(15)2,

E( W ) =E Wq +E(T)=7.5+15=22.5minutes,
Var( W ) =Var( Wq +T)=(7.5)2+(15)2=281.25,

sothestandarddeviationof W is 281.25 =16.77minutes.

(g)Determinetheprobabilityofexactly2morecustomersarrivingduringthenext
15minuteinterval.
ByProperty4inSec.17.4,wecansimplyusethePoissondistributionwithameanof
E{X(t)}=t=

1
(15)=1
15

tofindtheprobabilityof2arrivals,
P{X(t)=2}=

t 2 e t = 12 e 1 = 1 0.1839.
2!

2e

ExampleforSection17.5
Considerasingleserverqueueingsystemwheresomepotentialcustomersbalk(refuse
toenterthesystem)andsomecustomerswhoenterthesystemlatergetimpatientand
renege(leavewithoutbeingserved).PotentialcustomersarriveaccordingtoaPoisson
processwithameanrateof4perhour.Anarrivingpotentialcustomerwhofindsn
customersalreadytherewillbalkwiththefollowingprobabilities:
0,

0.5,
P{balk|nalreadythere}=
0.75,

ifn = 0,
ifn = 1,
ifn = 2,
ifn = 3.

Servicetimeshaveanexponentialdistributionwithameanof1hour.
Acustomeralreadyinserviceneverreneges,butthecustomersinthequeue
mayrenege.Inparticular,theremainingtimethatthecustomeratthefrontofthequeue
iswillingtowaitinthequeuebeforereneginghasanexponentialdistributionwitha
meanof1hour.Foracustomerinthesecondpositioninthequeue,thetimethatsheor
heiswillingtowaitinthispositionbeforereneginghasanexponentialdistribution
withameanof1/2hour.
(a)Constructtheratediagramforthisqueueingsystem.
Theratediagramisshownnext.

(b)Obtainthesteadystatedistributionofthenumberofcustomersinthesystem.
UsingthegeneralsolutionforthesteadystatedistributiongiveninSec.17.5,weuse
thefollowingequationstoobtainthisdistributionforthissystem:
0
4
P0 P0 4 P0 ,
P1
1
1
1 0
2(4)
P0
P 4P0
P2
2 1
2(1) 0
2 1 0
1(2)(4)
8
P0
P0 P0
P3
3 2 1
(5 / 2)(2)(1)
5
8
5

P0 P1 P2 P3 (1 4 4 ) P0 1.
Hence,thesteadystateprobabilitydistributionis
P0=5/53,P1=20/53,P2=20/53,P3=8/53.
(c)Findtheexpectedfractionofarrivingpotentialcustomerswhoarelostdueto
balking.
Usingtheprobabilitiesofbalking,wehave
1
3
33
Fractionoflostcustomers= P1+ P2+1P3= .
2
4
53
(d)FindLqandL.
L=1P1+2P2+3P3=

Lq=1P2+2P3=

84
=1.585customers.
53

36
=0.679customer.
53

Example1forSection17.6
JerryJansen,MaterialsHandlingManagerattheCasperEdisonCorporationsnew
factory,needstomakeapurchasingdecision.Heneedstochoosebetweentwotypesof
materialshandlingequipment,asmalltractortrailertrainandaheavydutyforklift
truck,fortransportingheavygoodsbetweencertainproducingcentersinthefactory.
CallsforthematerialshandlingunittomovealoadoccuraccordingtoaPoisson
processatameanrateof4perhour.Thetotaltimerequiredtomovealoadhasan
exponentialdistribution,wheretheexpectedtimewouldbe12minutesforthetractor
trailertrainand9minutesfortheforklifttruck.Thetotalequivalentuniformhourly
cost(capitalrecoverycostplusoperatingcost)wouldbe$50forthetractortrailertrain
and$150fortheforklifttruck.Theestimatedcostofidlegoods(waitingtobemoved
orintransit)becauseofincreasedinprocessinventoryis$20perloadperhour.
Jerryalsohasestablishedcertaincriteriathathewouldlikethematerials
handlingunittosatisfyinordertokeepproductionflowingonscheduleasmuchas
possible.Hewouldliketoaveragenomorethanhalfanhourforcompletingthemove
ofaloadafterreceivingthecallrequestingthemove.Healsowouldlikethetimefor
completingthemovetobenomorethan1hour80percentofthetime.Finally,he
wouldliketohavenomorethanthreeloadswaitingtostarttheirmoveatleast80
percentofthetime.
(a)Obtainthevariousmeasuresofperformanceifthetractortrailertrainwereto
bechosen.Evaluatehowwellthesemeasuresmeettheabovecriteria.
Ifthetractortrailertrainweretobechosen,then
meanarrivalrate,=4,
meanservicerate,=60/12=5.
WeusetheExceltemplatefortheM/M/smodelwiths=1toobtaintheexpected
waitingtime,
W=1hr0.5hr.
Thepercentageoftimeforcompletingthemovewithinonehouris
Pr(W1)=1Pr(W>1)=10.3678=0.632280%.
Thepercentageoftimethatnomorethanthreeloadsarewaitingtostarttheirmove
(plusonecurrentlybeingmoved)is

P0+P1+P2+P3+P4=0.2+0.16+0.128+0.1024+0.08192=0.672380%.
Therefore,thetractortrailertraindoesnotmeetanyofthecriteria.

(b)Repeatpart(a)iftheforklifttruckweretobechosen.
Iftheforklifttruckweretobechosen,then
meanarrivalrate,=4,
meanservicerate,=60/9=6.67.
WeusetheExceltemplatefortheM/M/smodelwiths=1toobtain
theexpectedwaitingtime,
W=0.37hr0.5hr.

Thepercentageoftimeforcompletingthemovewithinonehouris
Pr(W1)=1Pr(W>1)=10.069=0.93180%.
Thepercentageoftimethatnomorethanthreeloadsarewaitingtostarttheirmove
(plusonecurrentlybeingmoved)is
P0+P1+P2+P3+P4=0.400+0.240+0.144+0.086+0.052=0.92280%.
Therefore,theforklifttruckmeetsallthecriteria.

(c)Comparethetwoalternativesintermsoftheirexpectedtotalcostperhour
(includingthecostofidlegoods).
Forthetractortrailertrain,wecalculate
expectedtotalcostperhour=$20L+$50=$20(4)+$50=$130.
Fortheforklifttruck,weobtain
expectedtotalcostperhour=$20L+$150=$20(1.5)+$150=$180.
(d)WhichalternativedoyouthinkJerryshouldchoose?
Thisisajudgmentdecision,dependingonwhetheryouthinkitismoreimportantto
meetthecriteria(whichfavorstheforklifttruck)ortominimizewhathasbeen
quantifiedastheexpectedtotalcostperhour(whichdoesnotincludetheextracostof
productionfacilitieshavingtowaitforanexcessivenumberofloadsneedingtobe
moved).

Example2forSection17.6

Gregismakingplanstoopenanewfastfoodrestaurantsoon.Heisestimatingthat
customerswillarriverandomly(aPoissonprocess)atameanrateof150perhour
duringthebusiesttimesoftheday.Heisplanningtohavethreeemployeesdirectly
servingthecustomers.Henowneedstomakeadecisionabouthowtoorganizethese
employees.
Option1istohavethreecashregisterswithoneemployeeateachtotakethe
ordersandgetthefoodanddrinks.Inthiscase,itisestimatedthattheaveragetimeto
serveeachcustomerwouldbe1minute,andthedistributionofservicetimesis
assumedtobeexponential.
Option2istohaveonecashregisterwiththethreeemployeesworkingtogether
toserveeachcustomer.Onewouldtaketheorder,asecondwouldgetthefood,andthe
thirdwouldgetthedrinks.Gregestimatesthatthiswouldreducetheaveragetimeto
serveeachcustomerdownto20seconds,withthesameassumptionofexponential
servicetimes.
Gregwantstochoosetheoptionthatwouldprovidethebestservicetohis
customers.However,sinceOption1hasthreecashregisters,bothoptionswouldserve
thecustomersatameanrateof3perminutewheneverybodyisbusyserving
customers,soitisnotclearwhichoptionisbetter.
(a)UsethemainmeasuresofperformanceL,Lq,W,Wqtocomparethetwo
options.
Themeanarrivalrateis=150.
ForOption1,themeanservicerateforeachserveris=60/1=60/hrands=3.
ForOption2,themeanservicerateis=60mins/20secs=180/hrands=1.
WeusetheExceltemplatefortheM/M/smodeltocalculateL,Lq,W,Wqfor
eachofthetwooptions.Thesemeasuresaregiveninthefiguresbelow.
Option1:

Option2:

(bExplainwhythesecomparisonsmakesenseintuitively.
WandLaresmallerforOption2becauseitisamoreefficientsystem.Thisistrue
becausewhenthereareonly1or2customersinthesystem,Option2isoperatingat
fullefficiency,whileOption1willhaveidleservers.WqandLqarelargerforOption2
becausetherearefewerpeopleinservice(only1register)and,therefore,morepeople
inthequeue.

(c)WhichmeasuredoyouthinkwouldbemostimportanttoGregscustomers?
Why?Whichoptionisbetterwithrespecttothismeasure?
Wshouldbethemostimportantmeasuretocustomersbecausetheyshouldbemost
concernedwiththetotaltimespentinthequeueingsystem,sincethisisthetotaltime
thatcustomersmustwaitintherestaurantbeforereceivingtheirfood.Giventhis,
Option2isbetter.

Example3forSection17.6
ThereservationofficeforCentralAirlineshastwoagentsansweringincomingphone
callsforflightreservations.Inaddition,onecallercanbeputonholduntiloneofthe
agentsisavailabletotakethecall.Ifallthreephonelines(bothagentlinesandthehold
line)arebusy,apotentialcustomergetsabusysignal,inwhichcasethecallmaygoto
anotherairline.Thecallsandattemptedcallsoccurrandomly(i.e.,accordingtoa
Poissonprocess)atameanrateof15perhour.Thelengthofatelephoneconversation
hasanexponentialdistributionwithameanof4minutes.

(a)Constructtheratediagramforthisqueueingsystem.
Sincethisqueueingsystemhastwoservers(theagents)andthemaximumnumberof
customers(theincomingcalls)allowedinthesystemis3,theapplicablemodelisthe
finitequeuevariationoftheM/M/smodelwith
K=3,=15,and=60/4=15.
Theratediagramisshownbelow:

(b)Findthesteadystateprobabilitythat
(i)Acallerwillgettotalktoanagentimmediately,
(ii)Thecallerwillbeputonhold,and
(iii)Thecallerwillgetabusysignal.
WeusetheExceltemplateforthefinitequeuevariationoftheM/M/smodelto
calculatethesteadystateprobabilitiesandobtain
P0=0.36364,P1=0.36364,P2=0.18182,P3=0.09091.
Hence,
(i)thesteadystateprobabilitythatacallerwillgettotalktoanagentimmediately
=P0+P1=0.727.
(ii)thesteadystateprobabilitythatacallerwillbeputonhold=P2=0.182.
(iii)thesteadystateprobabilitythatacallerwillgetabusysignal=P3=0.091.

ExampleforSection17.7
Anairlinemaintenancebasewantstomakeachangeinitsoverhauloperation.The
presentsituationisthatonlyoneairplanecanberepairedatatime,andtheexpected
repairtimeis36hours,whereastheexpectedtimebetweenarrivalsis45hours.This
situationhasledtofrequentandprolongeddelaysinrepairingincomingplanes,even
throughthebaseoperatescontinuously.Theaveragecostofanidleplanetotheairline
is$3,000perhour.Itisestimatedthateachplanegoesintothemaintenanceshop5times
peryear.ItisbelievedthattheinputprocessforthebaseisessentiallyPoissonandthat
theprobabilitydistributionofrepairtimesisErlang,withshapeparameterk=2.
AlternativeAistoprovideaduplicatemaintenanceshop,sothattwoplanescan
berepairedsimultaneously.Thecost,amortizedover5years,is$400,000peryearfor
eachoftheairlinesairplanes.
AlternativeBistoreplacethepresentmaintenanceequipmentbythemost
efficient(andexpensive)equipmentavailable,therebyreducingtheexpectedrepair
timeto18hours.Thecost,amortizedover5years,is$550,000peryearforeach
airplane.
Whichalternativeshouldtheairlinechoose?

ForAlternativeA,thesystemhasPoissoninputwith
=1/45,Erlangservicewithk=2,=1/36,ands=2.
ForAlternativeB,thesystemhasPoissoninputwith
=1/45,Erlangservicewithk=2,=1/18,ands=1.
Planesarriveattherateofoneevery45hoursor,equivalently,
8760/45195arrivalsperyear.
Sinceeachplanegoestothemaintenanceshopfivetimesayear,thereare
approximately195/5=39planes.
Therefore,theexpectedservicecostperhouris
E[SC]=$400,000(39)/8760=$1780.82perhour, forAlternativeA,
E[SC]=$550,000(39)/8760=$2448.63perhour, forAlternativeB.

Wenowneedtoevaluatetheexpectedwaitingcostperhour,whichrequires
firstdeterminingL.ForAlternativeA,
1
2
45 L=0.91
1
2 5
36

(estimatedfromFig.17.10).

ForAlternativeB,usingtheformulafortheM/Ek/1model(basedonthePollaczek
Khintchineformula)giveninSec.17.7,
2

1
1

2
3

45
1 k

45 3 .


L=
1
5
2k ( ) 4 1 1 1

18 18 45 18
Theresultingcalculationoftheexpectedtotalcostperhourforthetwo
alternativesisshowninthefollowingtable.
Alternative
A
B

E[SC]
$1780.82
$2448.63

E[WC]=$3000L
$2730
$1800

E[TC]
$4510.82
$4248.83

TheconclusionisthattheairlineshouldchooseAlternativeBsinceithasa
significantlysmallerexpectedtotalcostperhourE(TC).

ExampleforSection17.8
TheBeckerCompanyfactoryhasbeenexperiencinglongdelaysinjobsgoingthrough
theturretlathedepartmentbecauseofinadequatecapacity.Theheadofthisdepartment
contendsthatfivemachinesarerequired,asopposedtothethreemachinesnowin
place.However,becauseofpressurefrommanagementtoholddowncapital
expenditures,onlyoneadditionalmachinewillbeauthorizedunlessthereissolid
evidencethatasecondoneisnecessary.
Thisshopdoesthreekindsofjobs,namely,governmentjobs,commercialjobs,
andstandardproducts.Wheneveraturretlatheoperatorfinishesajob,hestartsa
governmentjobifoneiswaiting;ifnot,hestartsacommercialjobisanyarewaiting;if
not,hestartsonastandardproductifanyarewaiting.Jobsofthesametypearetaken
onafirstcomefirstservedbasis.
Althoughmuchovertimeworkisrequiredcurrently,managementwantsthe
turretlathedepartmenttooperateonan8hour5dayperweekbasis.Theprobability
distributionofthetimerequiredbyaturretlatheoperatorforajobappearstobe
approximatelyexponential,withameanof10hours.Jobscomeintotheshoprandomly
(aPoissonprocess)atameanrateof6perweekforgovernmentjobs,4perweekfor
commercialjobs,and2perweekforstandardproducts.(Thesefiguresareexpectedto
remainthesamefortheindefinitefuture.)
Managementfeelsthattheaveragewaitingtimebeforeworkbeginsintheturret
lathedepartmentshouldnotexceed0.25(working)dayforgovernmentjobs,0.5day
forcommercialjobs,and2daysforstandardproducts.
(a)Determinehowmanyadditionalturretlathesneedtobeobtainedtosatisfy
thesemanagementguidelines.
Usingweeksastheunitoftime,thissystemisanonpreemptivequeueingsystemwith
=4,1=6,2=4,and3=2,
whereclass1isgovernmentjobs,class2iscommercialjobs,andclass3isstandard
jobs.Theproblemistodeterminewhethers=4ors=5wouldbebest.
Fors=4:A=31.41,
B0=1,
B1=5/8,
B2=3/8,
B3=1/4.

Thus,usingtheequationforWkgiveninSec.17.8,wehave
W1=0.30094,W2=0.38585,andW3=0.58962.
Usingunitsofweeks,managementhassetthefollowingguidelinesforthe
averagewaitingtimebeforeworkbegins:
Nomorethan0.05weekforgovernmentjobs.
Nomorethan0.1weekforcommercialjobs.
Nomorethan0.4weekforstandardjobs.
Theserefertowaitingtimesinthequeue,whereastheWkcalculatedaboveare
expectedwaitingtimesinthesystem,soweneedtosubtracttheexpectedservicetime
(0.25week)toobtaintheexpectedwaitingtimeinthequeue,asshownbelow.
Governmentjobs:
Commercialjobs:
Standardjobs:

1
=0.05094>0.05week.

1
W2 =0.13585>0.1week.

1
W3 =0.33962<0.4week.

W1

Therefore,governmentjobsbarelyfailthemanagementguidelinesandcommercialjobs
failtheseguidelinesbyasubstantialamount.
Fors=5:A=52.35,
B0=1,
B1=7/10,
B2=1/2,
B3=2/5.
Thus,wehave
W1=0.27729,W2=0.30458,andW3=0.34552.
Tocheckwhetherthissatisfiesthemanagementguidelines,thecorrespondingexpected
waitingtimesinthequeuearecalculatedbelow.
Governmentjobs:
Commercialjobs:
Standardjobs:

1
=0.02729<0.05week.

1
W2 =0.05458<0.1week.

1
W3 =0.09552<0.4week.

W1

Therefore,thesewaitingtimeswouldbewellwithinthemanagementguidelineswith5
turretlathes.
(b)Itisworthabout$750,$450,and$150toavoidadelayof1additional
(working)dayinagovernment,commercial,andstandardjob,respectively.The
incrementalcapitalizedcostofprovidingeachturretlathe(includingtheoperator
andsoon)isestimatedtobe$250perworkingday.Determinethenumberof
additionalturretlathesthatshouldbeobtainedtominimizetheexpectedtotal
cost.
Convertingtounitsofweeks(with5workingdaysperweek),itisworthabout$3,750,
$2,250,and$750toavoidadelayof1additionalweekinagovernment,commercial,
andstandardjob,respectively.Foreachjobtype,thisamountthenneedstobe
multipliedbykWktoobtaintheexpectedwaitingcostperweekE(WC).Theexpected
servicecostperweekE(SC)isthenumberofturretlathestimes5($250).
PerformingthesecalculationsandthenaddingE(SC)andthetotalE(WC)over
allthreejobtypesgivestheexpectedtotalcostperweekE(TC),asshowninthe
followingtable.
s
4
5

E[WC]
Government Commercial Standard
6771.15
3472.65
884.43
6239.02
2741.22
518.28

Total
11128.23
94985.2

E[SC]
5000
6250

E[TC]
16128.23
15748.52

Therefore,twoadditionalturretlathesshouldbeobtained(bringingthetotalto5)to
minimizetheexpectedtotalcostperweek.