GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN

MINISTRY OF TEXTILE INDUSTRY

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BRIEF REASONS FOR COTTON CROP FAILURE 2016

Agriculture plays a vital role in economy of Pakistan the share in the GDP
remains above 24 %. Recent decline in agriculture crops adversely affected the national
growth and shaken the balance of payments very badly. Bumper crops of wheat, cotton
maize rice etc. not only improves the GDP but also mends the rural socio economic
status as well. For example only cotton pickers over Rs. 55 billion as picking charges,
Rs 20 billion as cotton sowing charges, 20-30 billion for intercultural in cotton fields,
apart from this over 15 million tons of fire wood and 7 million tones of animal feed. In
short, cotton is not grown for providing raw material to our textile industry but it has long
lasting impact in rural economy. Above all, all this creates millions of direct and indirect
jobs in the rural economy. With little variations, it applies to other crops as well. So it is
imperative to look into holistically the entire value chain not wheat just for staple food,
cotton as textile fiber etc.
2.
The Cotton Production during the last six years (2009-10 to 2014-15) remained
between 12.91 million bales to 13.98 million bales with yields hovering between 700
kg/ha to 800 kg/ha as given below:Year

Area
(million ha)

Production
(million bales)

Growth
(%)

Yield
(kg / ha)

Growth (%)

2015-16

2.98

10.07

-27.80

574.5

-28.36

2014-15

2.961

13.983

8.68

802

3.62

2013-14

2.806

12.769

-2.05

773

0.52

2012-13

2.879

13.031

-4.33

769

-5.98

2011-12

2.835

13.595

15.70

815

12.41

2010-11

2.689

11.460

-12.69

725

11.04

2009-10

3.106

12.914

695

4.14

Reasons of Decline
3.
During the cotton crop year (2015-16), the cotton production declined drastically
to 10.78 million bales. Higher rainfall was recorded in the Punjab province (370 to 500

mm) in the cotton belt which affected plant growth and development, restricted pesticide
spray and weed management. The Whitefly infestation remained higher during the
months of July-September (2015-16) which is critical fruiting period of cotton. The
population builds up unexpectedly at later stage of the crop and severe boll damage
was observed during the months of August-October. The farmers could not control the
infestation by Pink bollworm due to non vigilance about the extent of pest infestation
and non availability of adequate pesticides. Moreover, the phutti prices remained
between Rs.1800 to 2300 per 40 kg in the month of August-September, due to which
the farmers lost their interest in crop management because they did not foresee any
profit from the cotton produce. The main reasons for decline in cotton production during
2015-16 are as under:i)

Cotton was sown on an area of 2.98 million hectares in the crop season
2015-16 which was almost equal to the tone of last year. However, the
target of 3.2 million hectors could not be achieved during 2015-16. The
low production is mainly attributed to lowering cotton area and
establishment of sugar industry in the cotton zones, which not only
restricted the expansion in cotton area but also resulted in reduction in
some of the best cotton areas.

ii)

The sowing was delayed by almost one month due to prolonged cold spell
and intermittent rains also resulted in late harvesting of the wheat
especially in Punjab.

iii)

Consecutive rains and increased temperature during the months of May &
June, 2015 paved the way for white fly attack on the crop. The
consecutive rains also diminished the impact of pesticides.

iv)

Lower phutti prices during early cotton season limited the crop
management as cotton growers lost the interest in cotton cultivation.
Moreover fall of prices in international market has negative impact.

v)

Impact of fertilizers also remained diluted due to excessive rains as

draining out the standing water from the crop is not carried out by the
farmers.

vi)

Elevated attack of pink bollworm played havoc to the cotton crop.

vii)

Utilization of first generation single gene Boll guard-I which has lost its
efficacy against Pink bollworm, reduced the cotton production.

viii)

Prices of seed cotton during the last three years have remained at a low
level and growers also did not see any increase in the cotton crop season
2015-16.

ix)

Application of pesticides remained at low level due to increase in input

cost.

x)

Non availability of certified cotton seed with desirable germination and

purity also reduced the cotton production.

3.

4.

xi)

Ineffective extension services, high input cost and non-assurance of

commodity prices are some other reasons of low productivity in the
country.

xii)

Federal Government did not intervene in the cotton market through

Trading Corporation of Pakistan as third buyer when prices of seed cotton
had gone down even from the cost of production per acre.

Future Strategy for enhancement of cotton production:

i.

Necessary legislation may be made to ban the expansion of sugar mills in

the cotton belts in the country.

ii.

Daily prices of cotton may be disseminated to the farmers.

iii.

Minimum support price of cotton may be fixed and announced by the

Government every year well before the start of the cotton season.

iv.

Duty/tax structure be rationalized on inputs i.e. fertilizers, pesticides and

seeds.

v.

To reduce rising cost of production direct support on electricity and

fertilizers may be provided to the farmers.

vi.

Cotton production can be increased by introducing the new varieties of

cotton seed, provision of cheap tube well water, fertilizers and pesticides
to the cotton growers on subsidized rates. Duties on import of fertilizers
and pesticides may be reduced.

vii.

Provision of legal framework i.e. enactment of Plant Breeders Right Act

may be made to enable to work the multinational companies for provision
of Bt varieties of cotton in the country.

World Picture- Feb 2016

(Source: United States Department of Agriculture)

Global 2015/16 cotton production is expected to fall 15 percent from the previous year to
101.4 million bales, as all major production areas except Australia saw declines and the four
largest India, China, the United States, and Pakistanfell sharply. World 2015/16 area
harvested is estimated at 30.9 million hectares, down 9 percent from last year, and the world
average yield is at 713 kg/hectare, down 6 percent.
Chinas 2015/16 crop is estimated at 23.8 million bales, a 21-percent drop from last season.
Production in the eastern areas plummeted by about 40 percent, as farmers adjusted to the
dramatically lower level of government support.
Central Asia, Turkey, Mexico, and Greece likewise showed significant production declines. Area
fell in all four regions due to less attractive cotton prices. Lower yields also contributed to their
diminished crops. Brazil, the largest producer in the Southern Hemisphere, is forecast to
produce 6.7 million bales in 2015/16, down 4 percent from the previous year due to high input
and financing costs. In contrast, Australia is expected to produce 2.4 million bales in 2015/16, a
slight increase from the previous year due to improved reservoir levels and timely rainfall.

World Production, Consumption, and Prices

2011/12 through 2016/17 projections

2014-15

2015-16

India

38.28

36.18

China

38.12

30.41

USA

20.90

16.59

Pakistan

13.56

9.47

Brazil

9.12

5.06

Uzbekistan

5.21

5.06

153.71

132.12

world

World cotton consumption is expected to decrease by 0.6 percent in 2015/16 to 109.6 million
bales, despite declining global cotton prices that are expected to reach their lowest since
2008/09. At the retail level, cotton consumption is constrained by macroeconomic uncertainties
and sharply lower prices for polyester. Chinas consumption is forecast to decline 3 percent,
while consumption in countries outside of China is expected to rise slightly. Among the worlds
largest spinners, Vietnam and Bangladesh will continue to grow, while India, Turkey, and the
United States consume at the 2014/15 level, and consumption for Pakistan and Brazil falls
sharply.
World trade is expected to decline slightly to 35 million bales. Higher import demand by
Pakistan, due to a significantly smaller crop, and Vietnam and Bangladesh, due to strong
growth in spinning, will only partially offset the drop in imports by China. The large decline in
U.S. exports is mostly offset by a sharp increase in Indias exports that is driven mainly by
higher import demand in Pakistan and Bangladesh.

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Role of PCCC for enhancement of cotton production is given below:

PCCC is a body corporate established under Pakistan Cotton Cess Act 1923.
PCCC has two main research institutes at Multan and Sakrand and six research
sub stations at Sahiwal, Bahawalpur,Sibi, Lasbela, DIKhan, Mir Pur Khan and
Ghotki. Additionally Directorate of Economic and Marketing Rearch at Multan and
Pakistan Institute of Cotton Research and Theology at Karachi also doing
research on various aspects of cotton.

PCCC has conducted National Coordinated Varietal Trials and tested over 52
advance lines of PCCC and other public and private research organization at 18
locations of four provinces of Pakistan.

Thirteen elite cotton varieties developed and approved from the relevant forums
for general cultivation in the country during last five years.

PCCC has collected over 5400 exotic and local cotton germplasm with divers
characteristics and genetics for future use in breeding program of PCCC and
sharing with other public and private research program.

To address the emerging new cotton pest issues like Dusky Cotton Bug, Mealy
Bug and Red Cotton Bug, a series of research experiments were conducted to
devise a sustainable and environment friendly integrated management program
and farmers were trained accordingly by visiting farms and publication of leaflets
etc.
Over 40 farmers trainings programs were organized by various research stations
and institutes in their area for the promotion of new production technologies and
quality picking practices in the last five years.

Coordinated with provincial agriculture department for the masters trainings to

disseminate the cotton production technologies.

Publish research articles, brochures, pamphlets for farmers and furnish cotton
and textile related data to relevant stakeholders and farmers.

Coordinates with international agencies like ICAC, ICA and other research and
development organizations and representing Pakistan on different forums.
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