20161223175636

Industry update
Power
Staying Power
Friday, December 23, 2016
Power
Table of Contents
Opportunities can still be found ....................................................................................... 1
Seeking opportunities when not many are available .................................................... 2
Overseas opportunities ...................................................................................................... 3
Thailand: Need to reduce risk of power shortage in the South ................................... 5
Committed projects to grow total capacity by 19% ....................................................... 6
Interest rate uptrend already factored in ....................................................................... 7
Valuations and recommendations ................................................................................... 7
Company report
BCPG PLC (BCPG) ........................................................................................................... 8
Banpu Power PLC (BPP) ................................................................................................ 10
Ck Power PLC (CKP) ....................................................................................................... 12
Energy Absolute PLC (EA) ............................................................................................. 14
Electricity Generating PLC (EGCO) ............................................................................... 16
Glow Energy PLC (GLOW) ............................................................................................. 18
Global Power Synergy PLC (GPSC) ............................................................................... 20
Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding PLC (RATCH) .......................................... 22
INDUSTRY UPDATE
Power
Opportunities can still be found

Solaya Na Songkhla
Fundamental Investment
Analyst on Securities
(66-2) 949-1006
solaya.na_songkhla@scb.co.th
Of the eight power companies under our coverage, we like those with
1) an edge to get new projects (overseas and the south) since few PPAs are
scheduled to come up, 2) several committed projects to COD soon, plus 3) a
lack of recognition by the market of their committed projects. These give us
EGCO, GPSC and BCPG as our top power picks.
Searching for opportunities. Since the countrys power reserve margin has reached 30%
(from the normal level of 15%) and bids for Power Purchasing Agreements (PPAs) for most
capacity plans from now through 2025 are complete, it does not appear that many new PPAs
will be opened for bids in 2017, as was seen in 2016. This has led us to search out some less
direct opportunities for these companies and these include: 1) overseas opportunities
(especially EGCO, BCPG, BPP, CKP and GPSC) and 2) a substitute for the cancelled Krabi coalfired plant in the south (we like EGCO).
Committed projects to grow total capacity by 19%. Despite the scarcity of new PPAs,
several power producers have a number of committed projects with CODs scheduled over
next three years. Combining the power capacity of all eight power producers under our
coverage suggests total capacity will grow 19% over next three years to 21.3 GWe from 18.1
GWe now. Based on new committed capacity, EGCO leads the list with 844 MWe, followed by
GPSC with 547 MWe. GLOW has the smallest additional capacity of only 3MWe. In terms of
percentage, companies with a relatively smaller portfolio (capacity below 1GWe) tend to have
very large percentage growths; these include EA, BCPG and CKP, which will add 134-139% to
capacity. Of these, we like BCPG most, with relatively cheaper 2017F EV/EBITDA of 9x.
Uptrend interest rate to impact some companies, already factored in. Our banking
analyst projects an uptrend in interest rates in Thailand. EGCO, GLOW and BPP should be able
to shrug this off, at least for existing projects, as rates are fixed on 100% of their consolidated
LT debt. BCPG is expected to have low impact as well, as 39% of its debt is in Japan, where
rates are not expected to go up for several years. GPSC does face some impact since 100% of
its debt carries a floating rate; the remaining companies have a mixture of fixed and floating
rate. To cover all the bases, we have assumed a 25 bps rise during 2017-18F in calculations.
Valuations and recommendations. We derive target prices using sum-of-the-parts. Each
project or project group is valued based on the DCF method until PPA expiry or 25 years for
renewable power plants (based on equipment life) without terminal value. We use Ke = 7.7%,
derived from risk free rate = 3.5%, ERP = 6.5%, beta = 0.64 based on the 10-year historical
average of peers. Using this method, we assign a value of Bt243 for EGCO, Bt42 for GPSC, Bt85
for GLOW, Bt53 for RATCH, Bt25 for BPP, Bt3.4 for CKP, Bt25 for EA and Bt17 for BCPG. Of
these, we rate Buy on EGCO, GPSC and BCPG who match our criteria: 1) advantages in future
opportunities, 2) sizeable committed projects to COD soon and 3) material upside to our TPs.
As for EA and CKP, though we like them in terms of numerous committed projects, this is
already in the price and we rate them Sell; the remainder are Neutral.
Valuation summary
BCPG
BPP
CKP
EA
EGCO
GLOW
GPSC
RATCH
Average
Rating Price Target ETR

(Bt/Sh) (Bt/Sh) (%)
Buy
13.70
17.0
29.1
Neutral 24.10
25.0
7.2
Sell
3.56
3.4
(3.9)
Sell
28.25
25.0 (11.1)
Buy
194.00 243.0 28.6
Neutral 76.75
85.0
18.6
Buy
35.75
42.0
20.6
Neutral 50.00
53.0
10.5
15A
4.9
15.1
70.9
39.2
15.9
11.9
27.4
16.0
25.2
P/E (x)
16F
18.6
17.2
56.3
31.4
12.4
13.1
20.6
12.8
22.8
17F
13.0
13.6
50.5
21.8
10.5
12.8
17.0
11.6
18.9
EPS growth (%)

P/BV (x)
ROE (%)
Div. Yield (%)
15A 16F 17F 15A 16F 17F 15A 16F 17F 15A 16F 17F
12 (74) 43 2.6 1.9 1.8
48 16 14 n.a. 5.0 5.1
(54) (12) 26 2.9 2.2 2.0
17 19 16 n.a. 3.5 4.4
(42)
26 11 1.5 1.5 1.4
2
3
3 0.6 0.6 0.6
67
25 44 12.4 9.2 6.6
37 34 35 0.4 0.4 0.5
(23)
28 18 1.3 1.2 1.2
9 10 11 3.2 3.4 3.4
4 (9)
2 2.3 2.3 2.3
20 18 18 7.5 7.8 7.8
(8)
33 21 1.5 1.4 1.4
6
7
8 2.7 3.1 3.1
(12)
25 11 1.2 1.2 1.1
7
9 10 4.5 4.5 4.5
(7)
5 22 3.2 2.6 2.2
18 15 14 3.1 3.5 3.7
EV/EBITDA (x)
15A 16F 17F
5.8 10.7 10.4
12.3 35.0 31.6
14.0 14.7 13.1
30.6 24.0 18.1
24.5 18.9 15.8
8.1 8.3 8.3
18.1 15.0 12.9
11.3 12.1 12.3
15.6 17.3 15.3
Source: SCBS Investment Research

Tel. (662) 949-1000
Fax: (662) 949-1030
www.scbs.com
The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein reflect
our judgment at this date and are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only. It is not to be construed as an offer, or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy
any securities. We accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. We or our associates may have an interest in the companies mentioned therein.
Power
Seeking opportunities when not many are available

Few PPAs coming up Based on the Power Development Plan (PDP 2015), all capacity
plans from now until 2025 already have PPAs. The recent net additions of ~3GW capacity to
the grid (based on plant CODs minus the retired Khanom 2-3) against growth of only 1.8% in
electricity consumption (as reported in the most recent National Energy Policy Committee
meeting) raises Thailand reserve margin to 30%. The Energy Minister said recently that the
ministry targets reducing this reserve margin to a comfortable level of 15% by 2020. Part of
this involves negotiation with Gulf Energy Development Co. Ltd. to delay the CODs of the four
PPAs it won with a total capacity of 5GW. It has not reported any progress with these
negotiations and thus if there is any PDP revision in 2017, we do not expect to see many new
PPAs opened for bidding.
Figure 1: New and retired power capacity based on PDP 2015
MW
7,000
EGAT
IPP
SPP
VSPP
New capacity
Import
Total of 7.7 GW new capacity from

imported hydropower
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
(500)
(1,000)
(1,500)
(2,000)
(2,500)
(3,000)
Retired capacity
(3,500)
(4,000)
2036
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
MW
2015
(4,500)
Source: PDP 2015, EPPO
but some opportunities can still be found

Even so, some opportunities may be found - mainly overseas, especially hydropower in Laos.
For Thailand, the urgent issue seems to be the recent halt of Krabi coal-fired plant which will
require a substitute plant to keep the southern region free from risk of a power shortage.
Power
Overseas opportunities
EGCO, BCPG, BPP and CKP growing overseas. There are opportunities in other countries
and several companies already have strong presences outside Thailand: EGCO has 23% and
12% of capacity (MWe) in Philippines and Laos respectively and these markets will provide
even more growth, with new projects to COD in 2019. BCPGs near-term growth will be
mainly from Japan, where 58% of its total capacity is. BPP is growing via Laos, China and
Japan (which altogether contribute 69% of total capacity). CPK has 79% of its capacity in Laos.
RATCH also has 16% of capacity in Laos but its business in Australia (which contributes 8% of
total capacity) is still in the red. Note that this is based on both existing and committed
projects.
Figure 2: Capacity breakdown into local and overseas
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
CKP
BPP
BCPG
EGCO
Local
RATCH
GPSC
Overseas
GLOW
EA
Source: Company reports and SCBS Investment Research
Several of these companies also have strength lying in their parent companies which will give
them an edge when they venture outside Thailand: BCPG is in the Bangchak Petroleum Plc
(BCP) grouping, BPP under Banpu Power Plc (BANPU), GPSC under PTT Plc (PTT), and CKP
under Ch. Karnchang Plc (CK).
Laos market in the spotlight. As hydropower is considered a clean fuel source, we see
several factors showing a favorable climate for hydropower plants in Laos, with government
support.
Based on the PDP 2015 plan, 700MW per annum in new capacity from hydropower plants in
neighboring countries is planned to COD during 2026-2036 for a total capacity of 7.7 GW.
Further evidence is provided by the September signing of an MoU between Thailand and Laos
to raise electricity purchases to 9GW from 7GW. According to Laos PDRs Department of
Energy Business, there are currently nine power plant projects in Laos with MoUs to sell
electricity to Thailand. Five are currently operating with total capacity of 3,578 MW, three are
under construction with total capacity of 1,843MW and the last (Nam Theun 1) is in the MoU
stage. Together, these contribute 5,946MW. This implies room for additional capacity of
3,054MW to meet the new level in the new MoU. Listed companies already involved in
investing in these power plants are all conventional power producers under coverage: EGCO,
GPSC, CKP, RATCH, GLOW and BPP.
Although it is still 10 years until the additional capacity from hydropower will be imported to
Thailand (in 2026 based on PDP 2015), hydropower plants require 8-10 years to develop and
construct. This may mean new PPAs in 2017.
Power
Figure 3: Power plants in Laos that send power to Thailand

Status
Operation
Under
construction
MOU Stage
Project
Type
Contracted Capacity
(MW)
Theun-Hinboun HPP
Hydro
434
EDL (Laos) 60%

Nordic Group (Norway) 20%
GSM (Thailand) 20%
Houy Ho HPP
Hydro
126
EDL (Laos) 20%

GLOW 67.25%
Nam Theun 2 HPP
Hydro
948
LHSE (Laos) 25%

EDF (France) 40%
EGCO (Thailand) 35%
Nam Ngum 2 HPP
Hydro
597
CKP 56%
RATCH 33%
Hongsa 1-3
Lignite
3 x 491
BPP 40%
RATCH 40%
Nam Ngiep 1 (2019)
Hydro
269
LHSE 25%
Kansai Electric (Japan) 45%
EGAT Inter 30%
Xe Pian Xe Namnoy (2019)
Hydro
354
LLHSE 24%
SK Engineering & Construction (Korea) 26%
Korea Western Power Co.,Ltd. 25%
RATCH 25%
Owner
Xayaburi HPP (2019)
Hydro
1220
EDL (Laos) 20%

CKP 30%
EGCO 12.5%
GPSC 25%
Nam Theun 1 HPP
Hydro
525
n/a
Total
5946
Source: Laos PDRs Department of Energy Business and CKP
Figure 4: Planned power plants in the mainstream Mekong River

Project
1. Pak Beng
2. Luang Prabang
3. Xayaburi HPP
4. Pak Lay
5. Sanakham
6. Pak Chom
7. Ban Khoum
8. Lat Sua
9. Don Sahong
10. Stung Treng
11 Sambor
Total
Capacity (MW)
Construction
Planned
Source: Laos PDRs Department of Energy Business
1,285
912
1,410
1,320
570
1,079
2,000
800
360
980
460
9,891
Country
Laos
Laos
Laos
Laos
Laos
Lao-Thai borders
Lao-Thai borders
Laos
Champasak, Laos
Cambodia
Cambodia
Power

Figure 5: Map of planned power plants in the mainstream Mekong River
Source: Laos PDRs Department of Energy Business
Several companies have been growing portfolios overseas as well, including the Philippines
(EGCO, with a record of nice earnings and series of new PPAs to expand portfolio), Australia
(RATCH and EGCO: competitive market with lackluster earnings generation), China (BPP) and
Japan (GPSC, BPP and BCPG: mainly solar projects).
Thailand: Need to reduce risk of power shortage in the South

After reconsidering complaints from environmental groups, the government recently halted
plans to build the 800MW Krabi coal-fired power plant (with scheduled COD in 2019). Without
these capacity additions to the Southern region, power stability in this region could come to
a critical level with risk of power shortage in 2020. This is based on: 1) demand estimates by
EGAT assuming a 4-5% annual growth of power consumption in the southern region (the
historical growth rate for the region), 2) reserve capacity as a contingency plan based on the
security standard, 3) available capacity from existing power plants and PPAs.
Figure 6: Projection of power demand and capacity in the southern region
Khanom 4
930 MW
Jun 2019 (COD)
Thepha 1
1,000 MW
Jan 2021
Krabi
800 MW
Dec 2019
Source: EGAT
Power

The halt of the Krabi coal-fired power plant brings a shortfall to the capacity outlined in the
PDP 2015. This raises the possibility of PDP revision in 2017 to add new power plants in the
southern region to reduce the risk of a power shortage if there is no new capacity by 2020.
EGCO has proposed the space next to its Khanom 4 plant on which to build a gas-fired power
plant to substitute for the Krabi coal-fired power plant. As this would be a brownfield
investment (expansion of an existing project), construction would take just 2-3 years (vs 4-5
years for greenfield), meaning it would come on line in time to reduce the risk of a power
shortage in the south in 2020. We left this as upside risk to our calculation for EGCO.
Committed projects to grow total capacity by 19%

Despite the scarcity of new PPAs, several power producers have a number of committed
projects with scheduled CODs over next three years. Based on new committed capacity, EGCO
has the largest at 869 MWe, followed by GPSC with 547 MWe; GLOW has the smallest at only
3MWe.
Combining the power capacity of all eight power producers under our coverage suggests
total capacity will grow 19% over next three years to 21.3 GWe from 18.1 GWe now. If we look
at each company, companies with a relatively smaller portfolio (capacity below 1GWe) tend
to have very large percentage growths (from lower bases). These are EA, BCPG and CKP,
which will add 134-139% to capacity based on committed projects. For larger producers (with
total power capacity above 2GW), GPSC and EGCO still have sizable portfolio growths of 40%
and 22% respectively based on their committed projects. On the flip side, RATCH and GLOW
have no more than 4% scheduled to be added to capacity in the same period.
Figure 7: Power capacity from operating assets
and committed projects (MWe)
Figure 8: % capacity breakdown into operating assets

and committed projects
8,000
100%
7,000
Operating assets
Commited projects
6,000
5,000
4,000
80%
60%
40%
3,000
20%
2,000
1,000
0%
0
RATCH EGCO GLOW
BPP
GPSC
CKP
EA
EA
BCPG
BCPG
CKP
GPSC
Operating assets
BPP
EGCO RATCH GLOW
Commited projects
Figure 9: New capacity from committed projects

(MWe)
Figure 10: New capacity from committed projects in

terms of % additions
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
EGCO
GPSC
BPP
CKP
EA
RATCH BCPG GLOW
EA
BCPG
CKP
GPSC
BPP
EGCO RATCH GLOW
Power
Interest rate uptrend already factored in

According to our banking analyst, a steepening bond yield and reflation will eventually bring
interest rate back to an uptrend, with an interest rate hike of 50 bps on fixed deposit rates
and 25 bps on lending rates expected in 2018.
EGCO, GLOW and BPP shielded from any impact on current projects as rate is fixed on 100% of
their consolidated LT debt. BCPG, EA, CKP and RATCH are exposed to a greater impact with a
lower portion of fixed-rate LT debts at 32% for BCPG, 30% for EA, 15% for CKP and 12% for
RATCH. GPSC is facing the greatest impact since 100% of its LT debt is floating-rate. All have
said this is being monitored and financial instruments will be used as needed when the
environment changes. To be conservative, we have already assumed an average interest rate
increase of 12 bps in 2017 and 25 bps in 2018 in our estimates.
Figure 11: Portions of fixed and float interest rate for LT debts
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
EGCO
GLOW
BPP
BCPG
Fixed
EA
CKP
Float
RATCH
GPSC
Valuations and recommendations

SOTP method. We value power stocks based on sum-of-the-parts. Each asset is valued by
the discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on the projected free cash until PPA expiry or 25
years for renewable power plants (based on equipment life) without terminal value. We use
Ke = 7.7%, derived from risk free rate = 3.5%, ERP = 6.5%, beta = 0.64 based on the 10-year
historical average of peers. This gives us a value of Bt243 for EGCO, Bt42 for GPSC, Bt85 for
GLOW, Bt53 for RATCH, Bt25 for BPP, Bt3.4 for CKP, Bt25 for EA and Bt17 for BCPG.
Buy EGCO, BCPG and GPSC. Our top sector picks are EGCO, BCPG and GPSC, which have
several PPAs scheduled to COD during 2017-2019 and the market has yet to factor these in.
Furthermore, all three have advantages to grow overseas based on their own portfolios plus
support from parent companies for BCPG and GPSC.
Neutral view on GLOW, RATCH, BPP. We rate Neutral on GLOW and RATCH, as they have
little capacity coming on board from new projects but do provide attractive dividend yields
and have investment flexibility backed by a strong financial status. We also rate BPP as
Neutral because of the limited price upside to our valuation despite the sizeable capacity
being added from committed projects.
Like but expensive, Sell EA and CKP. We actually like EA and CKP: They are looking at 134139% addition to capacity via projects under construction, EA has LT potential growth from
new investment in lithium-ion technology and CKP has the largest portfolio in hydropower
plants in Laos, which could give it an advantage if new capacity becomes available there.
However, the market seems to have already factored these points in as well as any upside
risks and on this basis we rate them Sell.
INITIATE COVERAGE
BCPG PLC
BUY
58% of portfolio to COD over next two years
Stock Data
BCPG has a portfolio of solar plants with attractive incentive schemes

both in Thailand and Japan. Of total capacity, 58% is scheduled to COD
over the next two years, boosting its 2016-18F earnings CAGR to 40%. It
has overseas growth advantages under Bangchak, it has 24% price
upside to our 2017F TP of Bt17 and will give generous dividend yield of
5.1% on 2017. We thus initiate BCPG as a Buy.
Last close (Dec 22) (Bt)

12-m target price (Bt)
Upside (Downside) to TP (%)
Mkt cap (Btbn)
Mkt cap (US$mn)
13.70
17.00
24.09
27.26
757
Bloomberg code
Reuters code
Risk rating
Mkt cap (%) SET
Sector % SET
Shares issued (mn)
Par value (Bt)
12-m high / low (Bt)
Avg. daily 6m (US$mn)
Foreign limit / actual (%)
Free float (%)
Dividend policy (%)
BCPG TB
BCPG.BK
L
0.18
18.30
1,990
5.00
15.9 / 10.6
37.26
49 / 1
29.6
40
Price (Bt)
20
15
10
5
Dec-16
Nov-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
BCPG Stock Price

BCPG Rel. to SET (rebased)
Source: SET. SCBS Investment Research
Absolute
Relative to SET
1M
(3.5)
(4.0)
40% CAGR earnings growth in 2016-2018F. Within BCPGs portfolio, 58% of capacity
is scheduled to COD by 2018F. All are in Japan except the Solar Cooperative project in
Thailand. These will give outstanding 40% CAGR during 2016-2018F. Apart from these,
BCPG has two more solar projects with total capacity of 34.4 MW in Japan waiting for
grid connection; we leave this as upside and have not yet put it into our projection.
Targets portfolio expansion to 1GW by 2020. With 325MW contracted and 418MW
installed capacity now in hand, management has a goal of more than doubling the
installed capacity of its renewable power portfolio to 1GW by 2020 and to this end is
exploring opportunities in ASEAN and North Asia with targeted equity in the midteens. As part of Bangchak group, BCPG has advantages in credibility overseas.
Price Performance
Share performance
Full portfolio of PPAs with attractive incentive scheme. BCPG has a number of
solar farm projects in both Thailand and Japan with total contract capacity of 325 MW
(including both operating assets and committed projects), 36% in Thailand and 64% in
Japan. All carry attractive incentive schemes: in Thailand, all have the adder scheme at
Bt8/unit for 10 years (except the latest Solar Cooperative PPA, with a fixed Feed-inTariff of Bt5.66/unit for 25 years). Those in Japan are all under a FiT scheme of 32-40
JPY/unit for 20 years.
3M
n.a.
n.a.
Limited interest rate risk. Though interest rate is poised to trend up, BCPG will have
little impact as 39% of its debt is in Japan, which is not expected to raise rates for
several years, and 32% carries a fixed rate. To be conservative, we have put a 25 bps rise
in interest rate over 2017-2018F into our model.
SOTP value at Bt17/share. We value BCPG based on the sum-of-the-parts. Each

project is valued by the discounted cash flow (DCF) method based on the projected free
cash flow until PPA expiry or 25 years based on equipment life without terminal value.
We use Ke = 7.7%, derived from risk free rate = 3.5%, ERP = 6.5%, beta = 0.64 based on
12M 10-year historical average of peers. We value BCPG at Bt17/sh (rounded, consisting of
n.a. Bt6.54/sh for operating assets and Bt10.25/sh for committed projects).
n.a.
Solaya Na Songkhla
(66-2) 949-1006
Buy: Bt1.5 interim DPS. With a full load of assets with an attractive incentive
scheme, outstanding CAGR earnings growth over 2016-18F with CODs of several
projects over next two years, its overseas opportunities and generous dividend yield of
5.1% on 2017 operations plus 24% price upside to our TP, we initiate with Buy. BCPG will
pay an interim DPS of Bt0.15, XD Dec 26, implying 1.1% yield at current share price.
Forecasts and valuation
Year to 31 Dec
Revenue
EBITDA
Core profit
Reported profit
Core EPS
DPS
P/E, core
EPS growth, core
P/BV, core
ROE
Dividend yield
EV/EBITDA
Tel. (662) 686-2000

Fax: (662) 263-3272
www.scbs.com
Unit
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Bt)
(Bt)
(x)
(%)
(x)
(%)
(%)
(x)
2014
2,692
2,568
1,861
1,861
2.51
n.a.
5.45
83.41
2.11
40.93
n.a.
6.40
2015
3,024
2,841
2,085
2,084
2.82
n.a.
4.86
12.08
2.58
47.76
n.a.
5.82
2016F
3,147
2,414
1,467
1,600
0.74
0.69
18.58
(73.84)
1.91
16.10
5.04
10.74
2017F
4,125
3,329
2,104
2,104
1.06
0.70
12.96
43.42
1.81
14.35
5.11
10.37
2018F
5,949
4,327
2,557
2,557
1.29
0.90
10.66
21.55
1.68
16.38
6.57
8.98
The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein
reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only. It is not to be construed as an offer, or solicitation of an offer to sell
or buy any securities. We accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. We or our associates may have an interest in the companies mentioned therein.
BCPG PLC
Main Assumptions
3Q16
785
210
575
130
14
82
377
(0)
0
0
377
(12)
365
612
0.19
0.18
PE band chart
Price (Bt)
PE Band BCPG
30
25
20
20.0x
16.4x
15
12.8x
10
9.2x
5.6x
2.0x
Dec-16
Dec-16
Dec-16
Dec-16
Nov-16
Nov-16
Nov-16
12 Month cumulative chg in foreign ownership versus

cumulative chg in SET index
Cumulative Change in SET index
Cumulative Change in Foreign Ownership
Cumulative SET (LHS)
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
-6.0%
1.8%
1.6%
1.4%
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
-0.2%
Dec-16
Dec-16
Dec-16
Dec-16
Nov-16
Nov-16
Nov-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Oct-16
Oct-16
Oct-16
Oct-16
Cumulative BCPG (RHS)
Sep-16
NA
2Q16
759
187
573
206
18
92
293
(4)
0
0
296
163
459
531
0.21
0.33
2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

141
149
245
325
Nov-16
12-Month Cumulative directors trade
2014
131
Contracted capacity (MW)
Nov-16
2018F
63.1
50.1
72.7
44.5
43.0
16.4
9.6
0.72
11.2
2.6
70.0
2017F
72.6
57.6
80.7
51.8
51.0
14.3
9.0
0.48
11.3
2.0
66.2
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
n.a.
3,260 10,928
n.a. 14,102 14,688
n.a. 17,362 25,617
n.a.
7,414
8,898
n.a.
1,302
1,973
n.a.
7,966
9,402
n.a. 9,268 11,375
n.a.
7,000
9,950
n.a. 8,094 14,242
n.a.
5.78
7.16
3Q15
4Q15
n.a.
1,431
n.a. 10,240
n.a. 11,671
n.a.
6,939
n.a.
802
n.a.
6,939
n.a. 7,741
n.a.
3,700
n.a. 3,930
n.a.
5.31
Nov-16
2016F
74.9
56.4
76.7
46.9
50.8
16.1
8.5
(0.09)
6.9
3.0
85.8
Balance Sheet (Btmn)

FY December 31
Total current assets
Total fixed assets
Total assets
Total loans
Total current liabilities
Total long-term liabilities
Total liabilities
Paid-up capital
Total equity
BVPS (Bt)
Oct-16
2015
79.2
77.7
93.9
69.3
68.9
47.8
17.4
1.63
10.7
4.0
n.a.
2018F
2,557
1,292
3,507
(6,439)
2,307
(625)
1Q16
783
182
600
115
8
81
413
8
0
0
405
(18)
387
627
n.a.
n.a.
Nov-16
2014
79.4
78.4
95.4
69.3
69.1
40.9
16.8
1.31
9.4
3.7
n.a.
2016F 2017F
1,467
2,104
589
898
2,057
2,880
(2,864) (10,118)
9,513
(771)
8,707 (8,009)
Profit and Loss Statement (Btmn)

FY December 31
3Q15
4Q15
Total revenue
731
766
Cost of goods sold
155
167
Gross profit
575
599
SG&A
6
25
Other income
2
3
Interest expense
51
113
Pre-tax profit
521
464
Corporate tax
0
11
Equity a/c profits
0
0
Minority interests
0
0
Core profit
521
453
Extra-ordinary items
0
(2)
Net Profit
521
452
EBITDA
693
698
Core EPS (Bt)
0.42
0.61
Net EPS (Bt)
0.42
0.61
Oct-16
2018F
5,949
2,196
3,753
773
55
385
2,650
93
0
0
2,557
0
2,557
4,327
1.29
1.29
0.90
Sep-16
Gross margin(%)
Operating margin(%)
EBITDA margin(%)
EBIT margin(%)
Net profit margin(%)
ROE (%)
ROA (%)
Net D/E (x)
Interest coverage (x)
Debt service coverage (x)
Payout Ratio (%)
2017F
4,125
1,129
2,997
619
53
295
2,136
32
0
0
2,104
0
2,104
3,329
1.06
1.06
0.70
2014
2015 2016F 2017F 2018F
1,577
1,431 10,275
2,435
2,241
10,678 10,240 12,515 21,735 26,882
12,254 11,671 22,790 24,170 29,122
7,316
7,385
8,339
8,941 12,641
548
802
1,550
1,499
1,787
6,904
6,939
6,941
7,641 11,141
7,451 7,741 8,491 9,140 12,929
3,700
3,700
9,950
9,950
9,950
4,803 3,930 14,299 15,029 16,194
6.49
5.31
7.19
7.55
8.14
Cash Flow Statement (Btmn)

FY December 31
2014
2015
Core Profit
1,861
2,085
Depreciation and amortization
430
478
Operating cash flow
2,471
2,879
Investing cash flow
(3,577) (5,794)
Financing cash flow
1,776
5,204
Net cash flow
670
2,289
Key Financial Ratios
2016F
3,147
790
2,357
582
50
351
1,474
7
0
0
1,467
133
1,600
2,414
0.74
0.80
0.69
Oct-16

FY December 31
Total fixed assets
Total assets
Total loans
Total liabilities
Paid-up capital
Total equity
BVPS (Bt)
2015
3,024
630
2,394
45
14
266
2,097
11
0
0
2,085
(2)
2,084
2,841
2.82
2.82
n.a.
Oct-16

FY December 31
2014
Total revenue
2,692
Cost of goods sold
556
Gross profit
2,136
SG&A
27
Other income
28
Interest expense
272
Pre-tax profit
1,865
Corporate tax
5
Equity a/c profits
0
Minority interests
0
Core profit
1,861
0
Net Profit
1,861
EBITDA
2,568
Core EPS (Bt)
2.51
Net EPS (Bt)
2.51
DPS (Bt)
n.a.
Oct-16
Financial statement
Source: SET, SCBS Investment Research
INITIATE COVERAGE
Banpu Power PLC

Growing via regional assets
NEUTRAL
Stock Data

Mkt cap (Btbn)
Mkt cap (US$mn)
24.10
25.00
3.73
73.40
2,038
Bloomberg code
Reuters code
Risk rating
Mkt cap (%) SET
Sector % SET
Shares issued (mn)
Par value (Bt)
Free float (%)
Dividend policy (%)
BPP TB
BPP.BK
L
0.50
18.30
3,046
10.00
29.3 / 24
31.62
40 / 5
21.2
50
Price Performance
Price (Bt)
30
25
20
15
Dec-16
Dec-16
Dec-16
Nov-16
Nov-16
Nov-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
10
BPP Stock Price

BPP Rel. to SET (rebased)
Share performance
Absolute
Relative to SET
1M
(6.4)
(6.9)
3M
n.a.
n.a.
With a well-diversified portfolio of high-quality power generation

assets and several CODs of power plants in China and Japan lined up,
adding 463 MWe or +26% over the next two years, Banpu Power (BPP)
is looking at outstanding growth of 21% CAGR through 2016-2018F.
However, current share price seems to already factor this in and it is
trading at 2017F EV/EBITDA of 32x. We thus rate it as Neutral with a
target price of Bt25/sh based on SOTP method.
Diversified asset portfolio is its strength. With nearly 20 years in the business,
Banpu Power Plc (BPP) is Banpu Plcs flagship for power generation. BPP has a
diversified power asset portfolio with operations in Thailand, Laos, China and Japan
and long-term relationships with strong partners in each, and all have the power to
supply growth now and in the future. Its footprint in a number of markets gives it the
advantage of a variety of growth drivers. Combining its operating assets and
committed projects, BPP will have total electricity generating capacity of 2.3 equity GW
in 2020; this is broken down by country to Thailand 32%, Laos 33%, China 32% and
Japan 2%. It is not resting on its laurels and has a goal of expanding its asset portfolio
to 4.3GW by 2025. Management plans to diversify its portfolio to include hydro, wind,
solar and biomass power production to raise renewable capacity contribution to 20%
by 2025 from 8% now (based on committed projects.)
Total capacity to grow by 26% in 2 years, CAGR 2016-18F earnings of 21%. The
scheduled CODs of Shanzi Lu Guang coal-fired plant in China (with gross/equity
capacity of 1,320/396 MW) in 2017 and several solar projects in Japan are expected to
add 26% to BPPs electricity generating capacity over 2017-2018F to reach 2.24 GW in
2018F. This will grow further to 2.28 GW in 2020F after the scheduled CODs of Luannan
unit 2 and Zouping unit 4 in China. The series of plant CODs plus a full year of operation
at Hongsa Power plant from 2017 will give BPP outstanding earnings CAGR 2016-2018F
of 21% by our calculations.
SOTP valuation of Bt25/sh. We value BPP using sum-of-the-parts. Each project is

valued using the discounted cash flow (DCF) method based on projected free cash flow
until PPA expiry without terminal value. We use Ke = 7.7%, derived from risk free rate =
3.5%, ERP = 6.5%, beta = 0.64 based on the 10-year historical average of peers and a
12M country risk premium for China. This gives a target price of Bt25/sh.
n.a.
n.a.
Neutral. Although we like BPPs portfolio mix that places it in several countries and its
outstanding earnings growth from committed project overseas, the market has
already incorporated this into the share price, which is currently trading at 2017F
EV/EBITDA of 32x and offers limited upside to our valuation. We are thus Neutral.
Solaya Na Songkhla
(66-2) 949-1006
Tel. (662) 686-2000

Fax: (662) 263-3272
www.scbs.com
Year to 31 Dec
Revenue
EBITDA
Core profit
Reported profit
Core EPS
DPS
P/E, core
EPS growth, core
P/BV, core
ROE
Dividend yield
EV/EBITDA
Unit
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Bt)
(Bt)
(x)
(%)
(x)
(%)
(%)
(x)
2014
5,200
1,829
2,100
2,092
3.49
n.a.
6.91
19.97
1.05
15.61
n.a.
7.43
2015
5,653
2,351
2,075
2,075
1.60
n.a.
15.06
(54.12)
2.88
16.87
n.a.
12.32
2016F
5,509
2,079
4,284
4,284
1.40
0.84
17.16
(12.19)
2.20
19.37
3.50
34.96
2017F
6,238
2,302
5,412
5,412
1.77
1.06
13.58
26.32
2.03
15.55
4.42
31.58
2018F
6,567
2,646
6,278
6,278
2.06
1.24
11.71
16.01
1.87
16.64
5.13
26.93
Banpu Power PLC
Financial statement

FY December 31
Total revenue
Cost of goods sold
Gross profit
SG&A
Other income
Interest expense
Pre-tax profit
Corporate tax
Equity a/c profits
Minority interests
Core profit
Net Profit
EBITDA
Core EPS (Bt)
Net EPS (Bt)
DPS (Bt)

FY December 31
Total fixed assets
Total assets
Total loans
Total liabilities
Paid-up capital
Total equity
BVPS (Bt)
2014
5,200
3,687
1,513
856
0
26
1,257
410
2,158
(905)
2,100
(8)
2,092
1,829
3.49
3.47
n.a.
2015
5,653
3,586
2,067
826
0
221
1,584
555
1,895
(849)
2,075
(1)
2,075
2,351
1.60
1.60
n.a.
2016F
5,509
3,615
1,895
953
0
413
1,206
362
3,577
(136)
4,284
0
4,284
2,079
1.40
1.40
0.84
2017F
6,238
4,137
2,101
998
0
23
1,763
529
4,337
(160)
5,412
0
5,412
2,302
1.77
1.77
1.06
2018F
6,567
4,137
2,430
1,051
0
22
2,077
623
4,996
(172)
6,278
0
6,278
2,646
2.06
2.06
1.24
2014
5,965
14,902
20,867
851
6,768
333
7,101
6,022
13,766
4.52
2015
6,333
22,867
29,200
663
17,476
255
17,730
12,972
10,845
3.56
2016F
4,737
31,798
36,534
343
2,177
215
2,391
30,497
33,382
10.96
2017F
5,187
34,564
39,752
433
2,433
175
2,608
30,497
36,223
11.89
2018F
6,766
35,956
42,722
293
2,241
135
2,375
30,497
39,254
12.89
2014
2,100
546
818
795
(1,507)
105
2015
2,075
546
2,351
(6,037)
4,063
378
2016F
4,284
461
4,346
(7,539)
3,187
(6)
2017F
5,412
515
5,666
(3,282)
(2,321)
63
2018F
6,278
547
6,469
(1,939)
(3,215)
1,314
2014
29.1
12.6
35.2
24.2
40.2
38.0
10.0
(0.07)
48.8
2.9
115.1
2015
36.6
21.9
41.6
28.0
36.7
19.1
7.1
(0.21)
8.2
2.7
116.1
2016F
34.4
17.1
37.7
21.9
77.8
12.8
11.7
(0.02)
3.9
2.3
60.0
2017F
33.7
17.7
36.9
28.3
86.7
14.9
13.6
(0.02)
76.7
9.9
60.0
2018F
37.0
21.0
40.3
31.6
95.6
16.0
14.7
(0.06)
96.3
7.3
60.0

FY December 31
Core Profit
Operating cash flow
Investing cash flow
Financing cash flow
Net cash flow

Gross margin(%)
Operating margin(%)
EBITDA margin(%)
EBIT margin(%)
ROE (%)
ROA (%)
Net D/E (x)
Payout Ratio (%)

FY December 31
Total revenue
Cost of goods sold
Gross profit
SG&A
Other income
Interest expense
Pre-tax profit
Corporate tax
Equity a/c profits
Minority interests
Core profit
Net Profit
EBITDA
Core EPS (Bt)
Net EPS (Bt)

FY December 31
Total fixed assets
Total assets
Total loans
Total liabilities
Paid-up capital
Total equity
BVPS (Bt)
3Q15
1,171
794
377
200
133
49
260
81
172
(149)
203
(107)
96
473
0.07
0.03
4Q15
1,754
1,036
719
271
119
150
417
199
797
(43)
973
103
1,076
681
0.32
0.35
1Q16
1,737
876
860
197
173
123
713
228
732
(39)
1,179
42
1,220
919
0.39
0.40
2Q16
1,078
732
345
220
186
115
196
0
1,101
(38)
1,258
77
1,335
390
0.41
0.44
3Q16
1,045
732
313
269
155
130
70
63
512
(21)
497
(8)
489
314
0.16
0.16
3Q15
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
4Q15
6,333
22,867
29,200
663
17,476
255
17,730
12,972
11,470
3.77
1Q16
6,350
29,733
36,083
365
12,582
248
12,830
23,972
23,253
7.63
2Q16
7,360
31,309
38,669
344
13,978
237
14,215
23,972
24,455
8.03
3Q16
5,869
33,509
39,377
275
15,883
254
16,137
23,972
23,240
7.63
Main Assumptions
2014
717
Power capacity (Mwe)
2015
1,465
2016F
1,778
2017F
2,180
PE band chart
Price (Bt)
PE Band BPP
40
35
25.0x
30
21.6x
25
18.2x
20
14.8x
11.4x
15
8.0x
Dec-16
Dec-16
Dec-16
Dec-16

3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
0.5%
Cumulative BPP (RHS)
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
Dec-16
Dec-16
Dec-16
Nov-16
Nov-16
Nov-16
Nov-16
Nov-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
-2.5%
Oct-16
NA
Dec-16
Nov-16
Nov-16
Nov-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
10
2018F
2,241
11
INITIATE COVERAGE
CK Power PLC
SELL
The largest hydropower portfolio, but expensive
Stock Data
Among peers, CKP has the largest hydropower capacity from Laos and
we see it as having an advantage if Laos opens up new opportunities.
Another positive is its doubling in capacity in two years from projects
now under construction. At the same time, we view these as already in
share price and it is trading above our SOTP of Bt3.4. We thus Sell.

Mkt cap (Btbn)
Mkt cap (US$mn)
3.56
3.40
(4.49)
26.24
728
Bloomberg code
Reuters code
Risk rating
Mkt cap (%) SET
Sector % SET
Shares issued (mn)
Par value (Bt)
Free float (%)
Dividend policy (%)
CKP TB
CKP.BK
L
0.18
18.30
7,370
1.00
3.8 / 1.9
5.24
49 / 2
24.9
40
Sep-16
CKP Stock Price

CKP Rel. to SET (rebased)
1M
1.7
1.2
3M
2.3
1.5
Dec-16
Jun-16
Mar-16
Sep-15
Dec-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Stock Price (Bt)

4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Absolute
Relative to SET
Largest in the sector with capacity from hydropower in Laos. Among all listed
power companies, CKP has the most hydropower capacity from plants in Laos with
total capacity of 646 equity MW from Nam Ngum-2 plant (operating) with total/equity
capacity of 615/258 MW and XPCL (under construction). These two assets contribute
91% of its capacity. This together with parent company CKs strong presence in Laos
gives CKP an advantage when new hydropower plant opportunities in Laos open.
Risk from interest rate uptrend. Our bank analyst projects a move to an uptrend for
interest rate and this could have some impact on CKP as the rate on 85% of its LT debt
is floating. To incorporate this risk, we have already assumed a 25 bps rise in interest
rate by 2018F.
Price Performance
Share performance
Projects under construction to more than double capacity in two years. CKP
currently has five operating power plants in Thailand and Laos with total power
capacity of 347 equity MW which will more than double to 810 MWe after the CODs of
two projects: the Bangpa-in Cogeneration Power Project Phase 2 (BIC 2) with
total/equity capacity of 120/78 MW in 2017 and the Xayaburi Hydroelectric Power
Project (XPCL) with total/equity capacity of 1,285/386 MW in 2019.
SOTP valuation at Bt3.4 per share. We value CKP at Bt3.4 based on the sum-of-theparts. Each project is valued by the discounted cash flow (DCF) method based on the
projected free cash flow until PPA expiry or 25 years for renewable power plants (based
on equipment life) without terminal value. We use Ke = 7.7%, derived from risk free
rate = 3.5%, ERP = 6.5%, beta = 0.64 based on the 10-year historical average of peers.
Like but looks expensive, Sell. We like CKPs portfolio, which offers high growth in
terms of percentage over the next three years and potentially more opportunities in
Laos considering its solid presence there. However, the stock looks expensive trading
at 2017F PER of 51x, with the market already pricing in the expectation of new projects
12M in the future. Therefore, we Sell and prefer EGCO and GPSC which are cheaper in terms
81.6 of PE and EV/EBITDA and have future opportunities in Laos and other areas as well.
53.9
Solaya Na Songkhla
(66-2) 949-1006
Year to 31 Dec
Revenue
EBITDA
Core profit
Reported profit
Core EPS
DPS
P/E, core
EPS growth, core
P/BV, core
ROE
Dividend yield
EV/EBITDA
Unit
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Bt)
(Bt)
(x)
(%)
(x)
(%)
(%)
(x)
Tel. (662) 686-2000

Fax: (662) 263-3272
www.scbs.com
2014
6,999
3,389
477
472
0.09
0.02
41.09
120.42
1.63
4.03
0.56
11.67
2015
6,757
3,167
370
412
0.05
0.02
70.91
(42.06)
1.48
2.48
0.63
13.99
2016F
6,871
3,539
466
466
0.06
0.02
56.26
26.04
1.45
2.60
0.63
14.67
2017F
8,333
3,933
519
519
0.07
0.02
50.55
11.31
1.43
2.85
0.63
13.07
2018F
9,758
4,245
630
630
0.09
0.02
41.64
21.38
1.39
3.38
0.63
12.11
CK Power PLC
3Q16
1,808
1,041
767
95
8
292
388
2
(4)
215
168
(45)
122
1,017
0.02
0.02
2017F
422.6
2018F
422.6
PE band chart
Price (Bt)
PE Band CKP
7
6
70.0x
60.0x
50.0x
40.0x
3
2
30.0x
20.0x
Jul-17
Jan-17

25.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Cumulative CKP (RHS)
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Dec-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
-5.0%
Mar-16
NA
2Q16
1,543
1,053
489
94
12
257
151
7
(5)
75
65
(3)
62
741
0.01
0.01
Nov-16
2016F
346.6
Oct-16
2018F
32.7
27.7
43.5
13.3
6.5
3.4
1.0
1.33
2.9
1.7
26.1
1Q16
1,549
1,058
491
95
10
266
140
0
(3)
35
103
(55)
47
737
0.01
0.01
Sep-16
2017F
34.8
29.8
47.2
12.6
6.2
2.8
0.8
1.37
2.6
1.6
31.7
2015
344.8
Jul-16
2016F
37.4
31.7
51.5
13.6
6.8
2.6
0.8
1.42
2.7
1.2
35.2
2014
343.6
Total capacity (Mwe)
Jan-16
2015
31.7
26.6
46.9
10.9
6.1
2.5
0.7
1.02
2.9
1.1
39.9
Main Assumptions
Aug-16
2018F
630
1,486
1,764
(918)
(1,889)
(1,043)
Jul-16
2017F
519
1,396
1,994
(788)
(1,751)
(545)
4Q15
1,945
1,256
689
91
19
266
351
0
(4)
173
174
(2)
172
932
0.02
0.02
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4,718
5,196
4,641
8,666
9,489
49,388 49,371 49,274 50,670 51,354
54,106 54,567 53,915 59,336 60,844
21,850 20,139 21,193 26,601 27,600
2,318
2,416
2,369
2,660
3,085
20,297 20,338 19,650 24,832 26,901
22,615 22,754 22,019 27,492 29,985
7,370
7,370
7,370
7,370
7,370
17,506 17,754 17,740 17,609 17,822
2.38
2.41
2.41
2.39
2.42
Jul-15
2016F
466
1,307
1,476
(8,424)
8,537
1,588

FY December 31
Total fixed assets
Total assets
Total loans
Total liabilities
Paid-up capital
Total equity
BVPS (Bt)
Jan-15
2014
34.1
29.2
48.4
12.2
6.7
4.0
1.0
1.66
2.8
1.1
23.3
2015
370
1,321
4,060
(6,984)
3,234
310

FY December 31
3Q15
Total revenue
1,499
Cost of goods sold
1,121
Gross profit
378
SG&A
77
Other income
9
Interest expense
277
Pre-tax profit
32
Corporate tax
0
Equity a/c profits
(4)
Minority interests
15
Core profit
13
23
Net Profit
36
EBITDA
648
Core EPS (Bt)
0.00
Net EPS (Bt)
0.00
Jul-14
2018F
9,758
6,568
3,190
488
56
1,463
1,295
0
59
(724)
630
0
630
4,245
0.09
0.09
0.02
Feb-16
Gross margin(%)
Operating margin(%)
EBITDA margin(%)
EBIT margin(%)
ROE (%)
ROA (%)
Net D/E (x)
Payout Ratio (%)
2017F
8,333
5,435
2,898
417
55
1,488
1,048
0
57
(586)
519
0
519
3,933
0.07
0.07
0.02
2014
2015 2016F 2017F 2018F
4,163
5,196
6,937
6,811
5,986
45,165 49,371 56,460 55,823 55,226
49,327 54,567 63,398 62,634 61,212
22,564 21,904 31,130 30,130 29,130
2,221
2,416
1,473
1,935
1,765
21,003 20,338 30,333 29,339 28,345
23,224 22,754 31,806 31,274 30,110
5,500
7,370
7,370
7,370
7,370
12,048 17,754 18,056 18,411 18,877
2.19
2.41
2.45
2.50
2.56

FY December 31
2014
Core Profit
477
1,318
Operating cash flow
3,254
Investing cash flow
(230)
Financing cash flow
(2,985)
Net cash flow
39
2016F
6,871
4,302
2,569
392
54
1,298
934
0
55
(522)
466
0
466
3,539
0.06
0.06
0.02
Jan-16

FY December 31
Total fixed assets
Total assets
Total loans
Total liabilities
Paid-up capital
Total equity
BVPS (Bt)
2015
6,757
4,618
2,139
345
52
1,110
736
0
9
(374)
370
42
412
3,167
0.05
0.06
0.02
Jan-14

FY December 31
2014
Total revenue
6,999
Cost of goods sold
4,611
Gross profit
2,388
SG&A
344
Other income
28
Interest expense
1,219
Pre-tax profit
852
Corporate tax
0
Equity a/c profits
35
Minority interests
(410)
Core profit
477
(5)
Net Profit
472
EBITDA
3,389
Core EPS (Bt)
0.09
Net EPS (Bt)
0.09
DPS (Bt)
0.02
Jul-13
Financial statement
13
INITIATE COVERAGE
Energy Absolute PLC

SELL
All committed projects are already priced in
Stock Data
Although we like EA for its 139% capacity expansion via its wind farm
projects under the adder scheme over the next two years and
outstanding earnings growths of 25% in 2016F and 44% in 2017F, we see
all the projects ready to COD as already priced in and the current share
price is above our SOTP valuation of Bt25. We rate it Sell with a target
price of Bt25/share.

Mkt cap (Btbn)
Mkt cap (US$mn)
Bloomberg code
Reuters code
Risk rating
Mkt cap (%) SET
Sector % SET
Shares issued (mn)
Par value (Bt)
Free float (%)
Dividend policy (%)
28.25
25.00
(11.50)
105.37
2,925
EA TB
EA.BK
L
0.71
18.30
3,730
0.10
30.8 / 19.8
7.03
49 / 33
34.6
30
Dec-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Mar-16
Dec-15
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Price (Bt)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
EA Stock Price
EA Rel. to SET (rebased)
Absolute
Relative to SET
1M
0.9
0.4
High criteria results in no recent new PPAs. According to the company, target
equity IRR for new projects is no less than 20%. Thailands new renewable PPAs are
under a Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) scheme and this is not attractive enough to warrant
investment. This has kept EA out of new PPAs for some time.
No material earnings contribution from battery business in ST. EA just acquired
a 35.2% holding in Amita Technologies (AMITA), a listed company in Taiwan. This
company develops and manufactures Iithium-ion polymer batteries. Although this
business provides nice growth potential in the long term, there is no material earnings
contribution in the short term.
Price Performance
Share performance
Capacity to grow by 139% in two years. EA currently has four solar power projects
with total contracted capacity of 278 MW under the adder scheme at Bt6.5-8/unit. It
has two wind farm projects, also under the adder scheme at Bt3.5/unit, under
construction and these are scheduled to COD at end of this year and in 2018 with total
capacity of 386 MW. These will boost EAs portfolio capacity by 139% to a total of
664MW in 2018. Note that all plants are located in Thailand. These will give EA
outstanding earnings growths of 44% in 2017F and 51% in 2018F.
3M
9.7
8.9
Moving to SET shortly. With a Bt105bn market cap and 34.56% free float, EA qualifies
for a move to trade on the main board after trading on mai for three years. It has
submitted an application for the move and its waiting for approval and the effective
date for the move. This could create more trading liquidity.
SOTP value at Bt25/share. We value EA share based on the sum-of-the-parts. Each

project is valued by the discounted cash flow (DCF) method based on the projected free
cash flow until PPA expiry or 25 years for renewable power plants (based on equipment
life) without terminal value. We use Ke = 7.7%, derived from risk free rate = 3.5%, ERP =
12M 6.5%, beta = 0.64 based on 10-year historical average of peers. We value EA at Bt25/sh
23.4 (consisting of Bt10/sh for operating assets and Bt15/sh for the wind farms that are
4.5 under construction).
Solaya Na Songkhla
(66-2) 949-1006
Currently looks expensive, initiate as Sell. Although we like EAs large portfolio
expansion over next two years and its recent investment in Amita Technology Inc,
which brings LT growth potential, current share price already factors in all this and it is
trading at 2017F PE of 22x. On this basis we rate it as Sell and prefer BCPG for the
renewable power producers with high capacity growth over next two years and GPSC
with regards to the indirect investment in battery technology.
Year to 31 Dec
Revenue
EBITDA
Core profit
Reported profit
Core EPS
DPS
P/E, core
EPS growth, core
P/BV, core
ROE
Dividend yield
EV/EBITDA

Tel. (662) 686-2000
Fax: (662) 263-3272
www.scbs.com
Unit
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Bt)
(Bt)
(x)
(%)
(x)
(%)
(%)
(x)
2014
7,583
2,361
1,608
1,608
0.43
0.02
65.51
500.34
17.88
31.38
0.07
49.16
2015
9,197
4,081
2,687
2,687
0.72
0.10
39.22
67.05
12.39
37.32
0.35
30.55
2016F
11,040
5,532
3,361
3,361
0.90
0.12
31.35
25.08
9.17
33.61
0.42
23.97
2017F
13,456
7,443
4,825
4,825
1.29
0.15
21.84
43.56
6.64
35.26
0.53
18.14
2018F
16,453
10,143
7,269
7,269
1.95
0.20
14.50
50.66
4.67
37.81
0.71
12.86
Energy Absolute PLC
Financial statement

FY December 31
Total revenue
Cost of goods sold
Gross profit
SG&A
Other income
Interest expense
Pre-tax profit
Corporate tax
Equity a/c profits
Minority interests
Core profit
Net Profit
EBITDA
Core EPS (Bt)
Net EPS (Bt)
DPS (Bt)
alance Sheet (Btmn)

FY December 31
Total fixed assets
Total assets
Total loans
Total liabilities
Paid-up capital
Total equity
BVPS (Bt)
2014
7,583
5,346
2,237
297
18
328
1,630
20
0
(1)
1,608
0
1,608
2,361
0.43
0.43
0.02
2015
9,197
5,461
3,736
389
15
646
2,716
28
0
(1)
2,687
0
2,687
4,081
0.72
0.72
0.10
2016F
11,040
6,129
4,911
469
15
1,064
3,392
31
0
(1)
3,361
0
3,361
5,532
0.90
0.90
0.12
2017F
13,456
6,839
6,617
565
15
1,197
4,870
44
0
(2)
4,825
0
4,825
7,443
1.29
1.29
0.15
2018F
16,453
7,200
9,253
691
16
1,240
7,338
66
0
(3)
7,269
0
7,269
10,143
1.95
1.95
0.20
2014
2,270
17,057
19,327
11,988
2,621
10,808
13,429
373
5,893
1.58
2015
4,581
28,476
33,057
22,214
4,964
19,583
24,547
373
8,505
2.28
2016F
3,923
39,244
43,167
28,868
5,230
26,440
31,670
373
11,493
3.08
2017F
3,807
46,095
49,902
30,718
5,734
28,296
34,031
373
15,870
4.25
2018F
7,476
48,693
56,170
29,568
7,438
26,153
33,591
373
22,579
6.05

FY December 31
Core Profit
Operating cash flow
Investing cash flow
Financing cash flow
Net cash flow

FY December 31
Total revenue
Cost of goods sold
Gross profit
SG&A
Other income
Interest expense
Pre-tax profit
Corporate tax
Equity a/c profits
Minority interests
Core profit
Net Profit
EBITDA
Core EPS (Bt)
Net EPS (Bt)
3Q15
2,276
1,317
959
82
4
184
697
26
0
0
671
45
715
1,079
0.18
0.29

FY December 31
Total fixed assets
Total assets
Total loans
Total liabilities
Paid-up capital
Total equity
BVPS (Bt)
3Q15
4,889
20,535
25,424
16,530
3,035
14,529
17,564
373
7,885
2.11
4Q15
2,415
1,479
936
69
(5)
166
696
0
0
0
696
(46)
651
1,044
0.19
0.28
4Q15
4,581
28,476
33,057
22,214
4,964
19,583
24,547
373
8,505
2.28
1Q16
2,436
1,452
984
112
21
174
719
8
0
0
711
(0)
711
1,071
0.19
0.29
1Q16
4,368
29,468
33,836
23,058
4,849
19,767
24,615
373
9,206
2.47
2Q16
3,133
1,716
1,417
167
12
263
999
6
0
0
993
(0)
992
1,537
0.27
0.41
2Q16
4,753
31,738
36,491
25,319
3,893
22,657
26,550
373
9,835
2.64
3Q16
2,545
1,378
1,167
104
5
298
770
2
0
0
768
50
718
1,419
0.21
0.38
3Q16
6,721
33,886
40,607
28,558
2,538
27,510
30,048
373
10,553
2.83
Main Assumptions
2014
2015
2016F 2017F 2018F
1,608
2,687
3,361 4,825
7,269
404
718
1,076 1,376
1,566
2,107
3,456
4,303 6,209
9,361
(7,933) (11,307) (11,837) (8,220) (4,158)
5,521
9,495
6,279 1,401 (1,712)
(304)
1,644 (1,255)
(611) 3,491
2014
29.5
25.6
31.1
21.5
21.2
31.4
10.4
1.82
7.2
2.0
4.6
2016F
44.5
40.2
50.1
30.7
30.4
33.6
8.8
2.37
5.2
1.4
13.3
2017F
49.2
45.0
55.3
36.2
35.9
35.3
10.4
1.87
6.2
1.9
11.6
2018F
56.2
52.0
61.7
44.6
44.2
37.8
13.7
1.11
8.2
2.6
10.3
2015
188
2016F
404
2017F
404
2018F
664
PBV band chart

Price (Bt)
90
PBV Band EA
20.0x
80
16.4x
70
60
12.8x
50
9.2x
40
30
5.6x
20
10
2.0x
0
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Gross margin(%)
Operating margin(%)
EBITDA margin(%)
EBIT margin(%)
ROE (%)
ROA (%)
Net D/E (x)
Payout Ratio (%)
2015
40.6
36.4
44.4
29.5
29.2
37.3
10.3
2.27
6.3
2.2
13.9
2014
98
Power Capacity (Mwe)

27
26
25.0%
25
20.0%
10.0%
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
May-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Avg. Price
-5.0%
Jan-16
Cumulative Net Buy(+)/Sell(-)
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
0.0%
Feb-16
5.0%
20
Jan-16
21
-20,000
Dec-15
22
Nov-15
-15,000
Source: SEC
20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
15.0%
Apr-16
23
Mar-16
-10,000

Cumulative EA (RHS)
Feb-16
24
Bt/Share
-5,000
Oct-15
'000 Shares
Jun-16
15
INITIATE COVERAGE
Electricity Generating PLC

BUY
Show time!
Stock Data
Despite the few new PPAs on offer based on PDP 2015, EGCO is awash
with opportunities to grow its portfolio in several countries including
Thailand. It also has 869 MWe capacity under construction that will be
added to its portfolio over the next three years. We rate Buy with an
SOTP TP of Bt243.

Mkt cap (Btbn)
Mkt cap (US$mn)
Bloomberg code
Reuters code
Risk rating
Mkt cap (%) SET
Sector % SET
Shares issued (mn)
Par value (Bt)
Free float (%)
Dividend policy (%)
194.00
243.00
25.26
102.13
2,835
EGCO TB
EGCO.BK
L
0.69
18.30
526
10.00
206 / 149.5
3.17
45 / 34
38.3
40
Price Performance
Price (Bt)
250
200
150
100
50
Sep-16
Dec-16
Jun-16
Mar-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
EGCO Stock Price

EGCO Rel. to SET (rebased)
Share performance
Absolute
Relative to SET
1M
(0.3)
(0.8)
3M
(1.3)
(2.0)
Negotiation process/ feasibility studies in several countries. EGCO has a strong

presence in several countries, notably the Philippines and Laos, with three new power
plants to COD in 2019 (MPPCL unit 3, SBPL and its 12.5%-holding in Xayaburi), which will
bring capacity contribution from the Philippines and Laos to 23% and 12% respectively.
Management says EGCO is concentrating on several opportunities overseas: Pak Beng
(gross capacity of~912 MW) and Nam Theun 1 (gross capacity of 650 MW) hydropower
plants in Laos, Quang Tri (a coal-fired power plant in Vietnam with gross capacity of
1.2 GW) and Chevrons auctions of its geothermal power plants in Indonesia.
Brownfield advantage to support power stability in the South. As the recent
halt of the Krabi coal-fired power plant has raised the risk of a power shortage in the
southern region from 2020, we see a good chance there will be a revision in the Power
Development Plan (PDP) to add substitute capacity in the south. EGCO has proposed
the available land next to Khanom-4 plant to build a new gas-fired plant. As this would
be a brownfield expansion utilizing some existing facilities, construction would take
only 2-3 years (vs 4-5 years for a greenfield project) making it in time to support the
power stability in the south by 2020. We left this advantage as an upside risk.
Adding 869 MWe capacity (+22%) over the next three years. After the recent COD
of the Chaiyaphum Wind Farm (with gross/equity capacity of 80/72 MW) last week,
EGCOs operating asset portfolio has expanded to total capacity of 4 GWe, the sectors
second largest, behind RATCH. There are still several projects under construction
scheduled to COD during 2017-19F, adding 869 MWe (or +22%) capacity to EGCOs
portfolio: three cogeneration power plants with total of 322 MWe capacity, two coalfired power plants in the Philippines with total capacity of 387 MWe and 160 MWe
capacity from Xayaburi hydropower plant in Laos.
Limited impact from interest rate uptrend. Our bank analyst projects the return to
an uptrend in interest rates but EGCO will be affected little if at all as 100% of its
12M consolidated LT debt carry fixed interest rates.
27.6
8.1
Solaya Na Songkhla
(66-2) 949-1006
Rate Buy with TP of Bt243. Giving the number of committed projects to COD soon
and opportunities to grow both overseas and in Thailand, we rate it a Buy with a 2017
TP of Bt243/sh based on the sum-of-the-parts. Each project is valued by the
discounted cash flow (DCF) method based on projected free cash flow until PPA expiry
or 25 years for renewable power plants (based on equipment life) without terminal
value. We use Ke = 7.7%, derived from risk free rate = 3.5%, ERP = 6.5%, beta = 0.64
based on the 10-year historical average of peers.
Year to 31 Dec
Revenue
EBITDA
Core profit
Reported profit
Core EPS
DPS
P/E, core
EPS growth, core
P/BV, core
ROE
Dividend yield
EV/EBITDA
Tel. (662) 686-2000

Fax: (662) 263-3272
www.scbs.com
Unit
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Bt)
(Bt)
(x)
(%)
(x)
(%)
(%)
(x)
2014
16,897
7,917
8,357
7,667
15.87
6.25
12.22
18.41
1.39
11.72
3.22
21.33
2015
15,914
7,357
6,432
4,319
12.22
6.25
15.88
(23.03)
1.32
8.55
3.22
24.54
2016F
22,240
9,570
8,205
8,205
15.58
6.50
12.45
27.55
1.24
10.29
3.35
18.93
2017F
27,334
11,717
9,719
9,719
18.46
6.50
10.51
18.45
1.15
11.39
3.35
15.83
2018F
31,527
13,306
10,368
10,368
19.69
6.50
9.85
6.68
1.07
11.28
3.35
14.02
Electricity Generating PLC
Financial statement
2016F
22,240
14,612
7,628
3,069
1,798
3,583
2,775
694
6,194
(70)
8,205
0
8,205
9,570
15.58
15.58
6.50
2017F
27,334
17,822
9,512
3,553
1,834
3,082
4,711
1,178
6,271
(86)
9,719
0
9,719
11,717
18.46
18.46
6.50
2018F
31,527
20,555
10,971
3,941
1,871
3,123
5,778
1,445
6,132
(98)
10,368
0
10,368
13,306
19.69
19.69
6.50
2014
2015
2016F
2017F
2018F
17,137
19,403
16,361
13,280
14,747
143,550 160,409 168,351 180,903 187,977
160,687 179,812 184,712 194,183 202,724
75,368
89,328
86,314
88,573
87,833
18,734
15,919
17,480
18,238
20,422
67,735
86,144
84,638
87,139
86,648
86,468 102,062 102,118 105,378 107,071
5,265
5,265
5,265
5,265
5,265
73,264
77,242
82,156
88,453
95,399
139.16
146.72
156.05
168.01
181.21

FY December 31
Total fixed assets
Total assets
Total loans
Total liabilities
Paid-up capital
Total equity
BVPS (Bt)
4Q15
4,081
2,433
1,648
1,132
478
405
589
116
189
(173)
489
929
1,418
1,592
0.93
2.69
1Q16
4,124
2,734
1,389
704
406
861
230
91
1,810
(19)
1,930
659
2,590
1,650
3.67
4.92
2Q16
4,456
2,591
1,865
852
587
793
808
309
1,686
(27)
2,159
(111)
2,048
2,201
4.10
3.89
3Q16
7,427
5,053
2,374
556
434
992
1,261
260
1,602
(11)
2,592
253
2,845
2,851
4.92
5.40
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
23,153
19,403
23,391
22,447
19,824
152,635 160,409 163,577 168,230 174,410
175,788 179,812 186,968 190,677 194,234
86,156
89,328
93,412
16,487
99,189
79,626
86,144
88,197
95,814
97,351
19,273
15,918
18,874
14,751
16,379
98,899 102,062 107,071 110,565 113,730
5,265
5,265
5,265
5,265
5,265
76,066 77,242 79,378 79,590 79,953
144.48 146.72 150.78 151.18 151.87
Price (Bt)
400
2018F
664
2.0x
350
300
1.7x
250
1.4x
200
1.1
150
0.8x
100
0.5x
50
Jul-17
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
12 Month cumulative chg in foreign ownership versus cumulative

chg in SET index
25.0%
3.5%
Cumulative EGCO (RHS)
3.0%
20.0%
2.5%
15.0%
2.0%
1.5%
10.0%
1.0%
5.0%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.5%
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
-1.0%
Feb-16
-5.0%
Jan-16
NA
2017F
404
PBV Band EGCO
Sep-16
2016F
404
PBV band chart
Jan-15
2018F
34.8
22.3
42.2
18.3
32.9
11.3
5.2
0.89
4.3
1.0
33.0
Aug-16
2017F
34.8
21.8
42.9
17.2
35.6
11.4
5.1
0.94
3.8
0.9
35.2
Jul-13
2016F
34.3
20.5
43.0
12.5
36.9
10.3
4.5
0.96
2.7
0.7
41.7
2015
188
Jan-14
2015
37.6
19.6
46.2
13.8
27.1
8.5
3.8
1.02
2.5
0.4
76.2
2014
98
Power Capacity (Mwe)
Jul-16
2018F
10,368
4,405
13,616
(11,274)
(4,260)
(1,918)
Jul-12
2017F
9,719
3,924
15,421
(16,278)
(1,248)
(2,105)
Jan-13
2016F
8,205
3,213
14,578
(11,846)
(6,375)
(3,643)
Jul-11
2014
39.5
22.1
46.9
21.4
45.4
11.7
5.7
0.91
3.8
0.9
42.9
2015
6,432
2,259
6,647
(7,303)
2,547
1,892
Jan-10
Gross margin(%)
Operating margin(%)
EBITDA margin(%)
EBIT margin(%)
ROE (%)
ROA (%)
Net D/E (x)
Payout Ratio (%)
3Q15
4,205
2,497
1,709
701
522
172
1,359
371
1,625
(42)
2,571
(2,738)
(168)
2,097
4.88
(0.32)
Main Assumptions
FY December 31
2014
Core Profit
8,357
2,214
Operating cash flow
7,516
Investing cash flow
(28,302)
Financing cash flow
20,661
Net cash flow
(125)
FY December 31
Total revenue
Cost of goods sold
Gross profit
SG&A
Other income
Interest expense
Pre-tax profit
Corporate tax
Equity a/c profits
Minority interests
Core profit
Net Profit
EBITDA
Core EPS (Bt)
Net EPS (Bt)
Jan-12
Jul-10
FY December 31
Total fixed assets
Total assets
Total loans
Total liabilities
Paid-up capital
Total equity
BVPS (Bt)
2015
15,914
9,934
5,980
2,859
1,977
2,897
2,201
750
5,038
(56)
6,432
(2,113)
4,319
7,357
12.22
8.20
6.25
Jan-11
2014
16,897
10,227
6,670
2,944
1,976
2,093
3,610
751
5,594
(95)
8,357
(690)
7,667
7,917
15.87
14.56
6.25
Mar-16
FY December 31
Total revenue
Cost of goods sold
Gross profit
SG&A
Other income
Interest expense
Pre-tax profit
Corporate tax
Equity a/c profits
Minority interests
Core profit
Net Profit
EBITDA
Core EPS (Bt)
Net EPS (Bt)
DPS (Bt)
17
INITIATE COVERAGE
Glow Energy PLC

NEUTRAL
No new committed capacity but high div yield
Stock Data
GLOW has almost no capacity addition scheduled from new committed

projects and only 3 MWe from a new small waste-to-energy project.
However, the stock is still worth a Neutral rating given its generous
dividend yield of 7.8% based on 2016F operations and its strong business
with industrial customers that could still bring some opportunities in
the future. We value GLOW at Bt85/sh using sum-of-the-parts.

Mkt cap (Btbn)
Mkt cap (US$mn)
Bloomberg code
Reuters code
Risk rating
Mkt cap (%) SET
Sector % SET
Shares issued (mn)
Par value (Bt)
Free float (%)
Dividend policy (%)
76.75
85.00
10.75
112.27
3,117
GLOW TB
GLOW.BK
L
0.76
18.30
1,463
10.00
97.5 / 70.8
2.90
100 / 38
25.1
50
Price Performance
Dec-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Mar-16
Dec-15
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Price (Bt)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
GLOW Stock Price

GLOW Rel. to SET (rebased)
Tiny new committed capacity. GLOWs portfolio currently has 14 operating assets
with total power capacity of 2,890 equity MW and stream capacity of 956 tons per
hour (tph). Unlike peers, who have several projects under construction lined up for
future COD, GLOW currently has only one committed project: a waste-to-energy
project with total 9MW and equity capacity of 3MW to be constructed in 2018-2019.
Though it is in the ENGIE group, a global energy player with electricity, natural gas and
energy service businesses in 70 countries all over the world, GLOWs portfolio is only in
Thailand. We do not see clear opportunities for overseas expansion yet.
SPP replacement scheme allows GLOW to serve its strong IC base. For small
power producers (SPPs) with PPAs expiring from 2017, the National Energy Policy
Council (NEPC) is opening an SPP extension/replacement schemes as follows: PPAs
expiring in 2017-2018 can extend operations for three years or can opt to build a
replacement SPP, which is the same scheme offered to PPAs expiring from 2019.
However, the capacity sold to EGAT will be limited to 60MW for an extension and 30
MW for a replacement down from up to 90MW based on current PPAs. GLOWs
seven PPAs (five plants) fall under these schemes. Despite less capacity sold to EGAT,
GLOW will still do well from its strong industrial customer (IC) base, which accounts for
around half of its 1,680MW power capacity plus all the steam capacity of 956 tph in its
cogeneration portfolio. Although these will simply be capacity replacements, it is an
upside risk to our calculation as we value only existing projects until PPA expiration.
Minimal impact from the uptrend interest rate. GLOW will be least affected by
our bank analysts expectation of an uptrend in interest rate as rate is fixed on all of its
LT loans.
Neutral with TP of Bt85. We value GLOW based on sum-of-the-parts. Each project is

1M
3M
12M valued by discounted cash flow (DCF) based on the projected free cash flow to equity
Absolute
(2.2)
(5.5)
2.3 (FCFE) until PPA expiry or 25 years for renewable power plants (based on equipment
Relative to SET
(2.7)
(6.2) (13.3) life) without terminal value. We use Ke = 7.7%, derived from risk free rate = 3.5%, ERP =
6.5%, beta = 0.64 based on 10-year historical average of peers. This gives a value of
Bt85/sh. With limits upside potential and no sizable committed project in the lineup
but attractive dividend yield of 7.8% based on 2016 operations plus upside risk from its
SPP replacement opportunities (not included in our calculation), we rate it as Neutral.
Share performance
Solaya Na Songkhla
(66-2) 949-1006
Year to 31 Dec
Revenue
EBITDA
Core profit
Reported profit
Core EPS
DPS
P/E, core
EPS growth, core
P/BV, core
ROE
Dividend yield
EV/EBITDA
Tel. (662) 686-2000

Fax: (662) 263-3272
www.scbs.com
Unit
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Bt)
(Bt)
(x)
(%)
(x)
(%)
(%)
(x)
2014
72,991
19,343
9,201
9,139
6.20
3.31
12.37
(11.79)
2.51
21.42
4.31
8.35
2015
64,225
19,226
9,558
8,355
6.45
5.75
11.91
3.88
2.34
20.36
7.49
8.10
2016F
54,144
18,066
8,707
8,707
5.87
6.00
13.07
(8.91)
2.34
17.90
7.82
8.30
2017F
57,314
18,194
8,918
8,918
6.01
6.00
12.76
2.43
2.34
18.30
7.82
8.30
2018F
58,849
18,391
9,003
9,003
6.07
6.00
12.64
0.96
2.33
18.45
7.82
7.97
Glow Energy PLC
Financial statement

FY December 31
Total revenue
Cost of goods sold
Gross profit
SG&A
Other income
Interest expense
Pre-tax profit
Corporate tax
Equity a/c profits
Minority interests
Core profit
Net Profit
EBITDA
Core EPS (Bt)
Net EPS (Bt)
DPS (Bt)

FY December 31
Total fixed assets
Total assets
Total loans
Total liabilities
Paid-up capital
Total equity
BVPS (Bt)
2014
72,991
57,256
15,735
779
333
3,386
11,903
1,005
(0)
(1,697)
9,201
(62)
9,139
19,343
6.20
6.16
3.31
2015
64,225
49,371
14,854
784
1,144
3,244
11,971
1,093
(0)
(1,319)
9,558
(1,202)
8,355
19,226
6.45
5.63
5.75
2016F
54,144
40,238
13,906
801
865
2,914
11,056
995
0
(1,354)
8,707
0
8,707
18,066
5.87
5.87
6.00
2017F
57,314
43,118
14,196
848
882
2,810
11,421
1,028
0
(1,475)
8,918
0
8,918
18,194
6.01
6.01
6.00
2018F
58,849
44,451
14,398
871
900
2,808
11,620
1,046
0
(1,570)
9,003
0
9,003
18,391
6.07
6.07
6.00
2014
2015
2016F
2017F
2018F
25,196
24,625
20,538
21,630
20,597
95,126
92,544
86,944
83,793
80,610
120,322 117,169 107,482 105,423 101,207
53,501
51,325
42,432
41,849
38,329
20,216
16,822
17,256
15,456
14,221
47,536
44,388
35,443
36,637
35,120
67,752 61,210 52,698 52,093 49,341
14,829
14,829
14,829
14,829
14,829
45,330 48,538 48,718 48,738 48,845
30.57
32.73
32.85
32.87
32.94
Gross margin(%)
Operating margin(%)
EBITDA margin(%)
EBIT margin(%)
ROE (%)
ROA (%)
Net D/E (x)
Payout Ratio (%)
FY December 31
Total revenue
Cost of goods sold
Gross profit
SG&A
Other income
Interest expense
Pre-tax profit
Corporate tax
Equity a/c profits
Minority interests
Core profit
Net Profit
EBITDA
Core EPS (Bt)
Net EPS (Bt)
3Q15
17,584
13,260
4,323
173
23
738
3,435
248
(0)
194
3,381
(1,399)
1,983
5,155
2.28
1.34

FY December 31
Total fixed assets
Total assets
Total loans
Total liabilities
Paid-up capital
Total equity
BVPS (Bt)
4Q15
14,611
11,058
3,553
276
1,068
947
3,399
193
(0)
173
3,379
(951)
2,427
5,330
2.28
1.64
1Q16
13,812
9,921
3,891
161
39
652
3,117
279
(0)
408
3,245
(498)
2,747
4,748
2.19
1.85
3Q15
4Q15
25,087 24,625
93,146 92,544
118,233 117,169
53,185 51,325
15,193 16,822
48,613 44,388
63,806 61,210
14,829 14,829
46,666 48,538
31.47
32.73
2Q16
13,833
9,610
4,224
180
65
632
3,476
248
(0)
510
3,738
(977)
2,761
5,135
2.52
1.86
3Q16
12,904
9,511
3,394
175
62
644
2,638
241
(1)
267
2,662
(437)
2,225
4,299
1.80
1.50
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
24,324 22,361 23,610
91,530 90,553 89,490
115,854 112,914 113,100
47,651 49,174 48,962
13,761 15,039 15,000
43,054 42,618 42,511
56,815 57,657 57,511
14,829 14,829 14,829
51,277 47,655 47,731
34.58
32.14
32.19
Main Assumptions
FY December 31
2014
Core Profit
9,201
4,054
Operating cash flow
15,612
Investing cash flow
(1,820)
Financing cash flow
(14,298)
Net cash flow
(506)
2015
9,558
4,012
18,383
(2,599)
(11,466)
4,318
2016F
8,707
4,097
18,625
(2,876)
(18,774)
(3,024)
2017F
8,918
3,963
9,863
(712)
(10,956)
(1,805)
2018F
9,003
3,963
15,782
(742)
(13,988)
1,053
2015
23.1
21.9
29.9
18.6
13.0
20.4
8.0
0.86
5.9
1.5
102.0
2016F
25.7
24.2
33.4
20.4
16.1
17.9
7.8
0.74
6.2
1.5
102.2
2017F
24.8
23.3
31.7
19.9
15.6
18.3
8.4
0.76
6.5
1.6
99.8
2018F
24.5
23.0
31.3
19.7
15.3
18.5
8.7
0.67
6.6
1.9
98.8
2014
21.6
20.5
26.5
16.3
12.5
21.4
7.5
1.05
5.7
1.5
53.6
2014
2,871
Power capacity
2015
2,890
2016F
2,890
2017F
2,890
2018F
2,608
PE band chart
PE Band GLOW
Price (Bt)
160
140
22.0x
120
18.8x
100
15.6x
80
12.4x
60
9.2x
40
6.0x
20
Jul-17
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-13

Cumulative GLOW (RHS)
25.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
-2.5%
-3.0%
-3.5%
-4.0%
-4.5%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
-5.0%
Jan-16
NA
Jan-14
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10

Jul-16
Jan-11
Jan-10
19
INITIATE COVERAGE
Global Power Synergy PLC

Seven plants lined up to COD - plus, plus, plus
BUY
Stock Data

Mkt cap (Btbn)
Mkt cap (US$mn)
35.75
42.00
17.48
53.56
1,487
Bloomberg code
Reuters code
Risk rating
Mkt cap (%) SET
Sector % SET
Shares issued (mn)
Par value (Bt)
Free float (%)
Dividend policy (%)
GPSC TB
GPSC.BK
L
0.36
18.30
1,498
10.00
40.3 / 21.6
4.23
49 / 2
24.9
30
Price Performance
Dec-16
Oct-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Jan-16
Mar-16
Nov-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
May-15
Price (Bt)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
GPSC Stock Price

GPSC Rel. to SET (rebased)
Share performance
Absolute
Relative to SET
1M
1.4
0.9
3M
(1.4)
(2.1)
We initiate GPSC as a Buy, supported by its seven committed projects

scheduled to COD in 2017-2019F and chances to grow portfolio further
via 1) riding with the PTT group, 2) investment flexibility provided by a
strong financial status with only 0.19x net debt to equity ratio as of
2016F, 3) a chance to get into areas of future growth, i.e. hydropower
in Laos and 4) investment in the lithium-ion business, which has LT
growth potential. We value GPSC at Bt42 based on SOTP.
Several advantages to grow portfolio. Though the government has few new PPA
bids planned, GPSC has several unique advantages by which it can grow its portfolio.
Firstly, as a utilities flagship for the PTT group, GPSC is able to tag along with the PTT
groups growth both at home and abroad. Secondly, its strong financial status with
only 0.19x net debt to equity (as of 2016F) gives it financial flexibility in M&A
opportunities. Thirdly, with 19% of capacity to be contributed from hydropower plants
in Laos (based on operating assets and those under construction), GPSC has a chance
to grab future opportunities in this segment which is being supported by the Thai
government. Finally, GPSC has 15% in 24M Technologies, a lithium-ion battery
technology company in the US which is working on developing high-volume
manufacturing production lines. This opens the door to an excellent LT growth
opportunity given the expectation that energy storage solutions will play an important
role in energy management in all areas in the future.
Seven CODs in 2017-19F expand portfolio by 40%. Adding to total electricity
generating capacity of 1.4 GWe (or 1.7 GWe equivalent MW including steam capacity)
in 2016, GPSC has seven projects scheduled to COD during 2017-19F that will add 546
MWe: four projects in 2017, two in 2018, including the largest, Xayaburi with 321 MWe
equity capacity. These will raise total capacity by 40% to 1.9 GW in 2018. Management
has confirms the target of 2.9 GWe capacity by 2020 which implies serious effort to
add new projects with no less than ~900 MWe capacity over the next four years. We
left this as upside risk to our valuation. These underwrite our estimate of 26% CAGR
earnings growth over the 2016-2018F period.
Uptrend interest rate is factored. Our banking analyst projects an uptrend in

interest rate, which will have some negative impact on GPSC since all of its
12M consolidated debt carries floating rates. Our model already factors in this risk,
64.0
assuming a 25 bps rise in an interest rate over next two years.
39.0
Solaya Na Songkhla
(66-2) 949-1006
Buy with TP of Bt42. We value GPSC using sum-of-the-parts. Each project is valued
by the discounted cash flow (DCF) method based on the projected free cash flow until
PPA expiry or 25 years for renewable power plants (based on equipment life) without
terminal value. We use Ke = 7.7%, derived from risk free rate = 3.5%, ERP = 6.5%, beta =
0.64 based on 10-year historical average of peers. This gives a target price of Bt42/sh.
Year to 31 Dec
Revenue
EBITDA
Core profit
Reported profit
Core EPS
DPS
P/E, core
EPS growth, core
P/BV, core
ROE
Dividend yield
EV/EBITDA
Unit
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Bt)
(Bt)
(x)
(%)
(x)
(%)
(%)
(x)
Tel. (662) 686-2000

Fax: (662) 263-3272
www.scbs.com
2014
23,654
2,858
1,588
1,581
1.41
0.00
25.29
25.94
1.59
6.45
0.00
17.34
2015
22,444
3,163
1,952
1,906
1.30
0.95
27.45
(7.84)
1.49
6.37
2.66
18.14
2016F
20,357
4,041
2,599
2,599
1.73
1.10
20.61
33.19
1.44
7.10
3.08
15.00
2017F
24,370
4,718
3,143
3,143
2.10
1.10
17.04
20.93
1.38
8.29
3.08
12.95
2018F
30,476
5,828
4,149
4,149
2.77
1.10
12.91
32.00
1.30
10.39
3.08
10.27
Global Power Synergy PLC
Financial statement

FY December 31
Total revenue
Cost of goods sold
Gross profit
SG&A
Other income
Interest expense
Pre-tax profit
Corporate tax
Equity a/c profits
Minority interests
Core profit
Net Profit
EBITDA
Core EPS (Bt)
Net EPS (Bt)
DPS (Bt)

FY December 31
Total fixed assets
Total assets
Total loans
Total liabilities
Paid-up capital
Total equity
BVPS (Bt)
2014
23,654
21,571
2,083
410
236
470
1,345
27
268
3
1,588
(8)
1,581
2,858
1.41
1.41
0.00
2015
22,444
20,177
2,267
670
577
394
1,686
90
339
17
1,952
(46)
1,906
3,163
1.30
1.27
0.95
2016F
20,357
17,358
2,999
733
585
431
2,327
105
354
23
2,599
0
2,599
4,041
1.73
1.73
1.10
2017F
24,370
20,796
3,574
804
593
433
2,837
128
406
28
3,143
0
3,143
4,718
2.10
2.10
1.10
2018F
30,476
25,700
4,775
1,006
601
398
3,879
175
406
39
4,149
0
4,149
5,828
2.77
2.77
1.10
2014
8,146
34,786
42,932
12,792
5,203
11,711
16,914
11,237
25,285
22.50
2015
16,316
39,550
55,867
14,989
4,569
14,171
18,740
14,983
36,005
24.03
2016F
13,243
44,042
57,285
15,394
4,624
14,335
18,959
14,983
37,181
24.82
2017F
12,057
46,167
58,223
13,735
5,711
12,663
18,374
14,983
38,676
25.81
2018F
12,644
46,929
59,573
12,038
6,231
10,953
17,184
14,983
41,177
27.48
2014
1,588
1,043
4,603
(7,030)
3,421
994
2015
1,952
1,082
2,632
(14,109)
2,865
(8,613)
2016F
2,599
1,283
4,358
1,089
(995)
4,453
2017F
3,143
1,448
5,183
(4,015)
(3,279)
(2,111)
2018F
4,149
1,550
5,612
(2,740)
(3,306)
(434)
2014
8.8
7.1
12.1
5.7
6.7
6.5
3.7
0.37
6.1
1.0
0.0
2015
10.1
7.1
14.1
7.5
8.5
6.4
4.0
0.11
8.0
1.6
74.7
2016F
14.7
11.1
19.9
11.4
12.8
7.1
4.6
0.19
9.4
2.0
63.4
2017F
14.7
11.4
19.4
11.6
12.9
8.3
5.4
0.19
10.9
2.1
52.4
2018F
15.7
12.4
19.1
12.7
13.6
10.4
7.0
0.15
14.6
2.5
39.7

FY December 31
Core Profit
Operating cash flow
Investing cash flow
Financing cash flow
Net cash flow

Gross margin(%)
Operating margin(%)
EBITDA margin(%)
EBIT margin(%)
ROE (%)
ROA (%)
Net D/E (x)
Payout Ratio (%)

FY December 31
Total revenue
Cost of goods sold
Gross profit
SG&A
Other income
Interest expense
Pre-tax profit
Corporate tax
Equity a/c profits
Minority interests
Core profit
Net Profit
EBITDA
Core EPS (Bt)
Net EPS (Bt)

FY December 31
Total fixed assets
Total assets
Total loans
Total liabilities
Paid-up capital
Total equity
BVPS (Bt)
3Q15
4,329
4,193
136
153
370
92
535
27
62
(11)
566
0
566
895
0.38
0.38
4Q15
4,802
4,351
451
188
100
99
239
10
114
18
381
(46)
335
628
0.25
0.22
1Q16
5,484
4,601
883
171
259
105
846
26
86
43
871
0
871
1,262
0.58
0.58
2Q16
5,553
4,609
944
204
77
104
686
70
89
49
687
0
687
1,103
0.46
0.46
3Q16
5,176
4,440
736
190
325
98
773
22
60
35
724
0
724
1,187
0.48
0.48
3Q15
31,651
65,480
97,131
21,071
17,093
20,598
37,690
14,500
59,171
39.49
4Q15
16,316
39,550
55,867
13,394
4,569
14,171
18,740
14,983
36,005
24.03
1Q16
19,366
72,749
92,115
20,342
9,516
20,567
30,083
14,500
61,835
41.27
2Q16
23,615
71,737
95,353
20,751
13,420
20,860
34,280
14,500
60,897
40.64
3Q16
31,799
36,065
67,864
5,970
16,614
20,207
36,821
14,500
16,032
10.70
2017F
1,530
2018F
1,601
Main Assumptions
2014
1,315
Power capacity (Mwe)
2015
1,338
2016F
1,381
PE band chart
Price (Bt)
PE Band GPSC
60
24.0x
21.2x
50
40
18.4x
15.6x
30
12.8x
10.0x
20
10
Feb-17
Nov-16
Aug-16
May-16
Feb-16
Nov-15

34
15
32
25.0%
30
20.0%
2.0%
15.0%
1.5%
10.0%
1.0%
10
28
26
24
Bt/share
20
2.5%
Cumulative GPSC (RHS)
Source: SEC
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
May-16
Avg. Price
Jan-16
Cumulative Net Buy (+)/Sell (-)
Mar-16
Feb-16
-0.5%
Jan-16
-5.0%
Dec-15
0.0%
Nov-15
0.5%
0.0%
Oct-15
5.0%
20
Sep-15
22
-10
Aug-15
-5
Jul-15
'000 share
Aug-15
May-15
21
INITIATE COVERAGE
Ratchaburi Electricity Holding PLC

New projects cannot make up for expiring ones yet
NEUTRAL
Stock Data

Mkt cap (Btbn)
Mkt cap (US$mn)
50.00
53.00
6.00
72.50
2,013
Bloomberg code
Reuters code
Risk rating
Mkt cap (%) SET
Sector % SET
Shares issued (mn)
Par value (Bt)
Free float (%)
Dividend policy (%)
RATCH TB
RATCH.BK
L
0.49
18.30
1,450
10.00
54.8 / 46.8
2.29
25 / 12
35.4
40
Price Performance
Dec-16
Sep-16
Jun-16
Mar-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Price (Bt)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
RATCH Stock Price

RATCH Rel. to SET (rebased)
Share performance
Absolute
Relative to SET
1M
0.0
(0.5)
3M
(2.0)
(2.7)
12M
6.4
(9.9)
Solaya Na Songkhla
(66-2) 949-1006
Despite having the largest portfolio with current power capacity of 6.4
GWe, only 4% additional capacity is committed to be added over the
next few years, not enough to fully offset the 13% capacity expiration
by 2020. However, we still like its generous dividend yield of 4.5% and
strong financial status with gearing ratio of only 0.13x which offers
financial flexibility when opportunities come up. Therefore, we rate it
as Neutral with SOTP TP of Bt53/shr.
The largest portfolio but 13% expiring by 2020. RATCH has the largest portfolio
with power capacity of 6,442 MWe (based on current operating assets) of all private
companies. Its portfolio consists of operating assets in Thailand (76%), Australia (8%)
and Laos (16%). However, two PPAs with total capacity of 887 MWe (or 13% of its
portfolio) will expire by 2020: Townville plant in Australia with 187 MWe expires in 2019
and Tri Energy Power in Thailand with 700MWe expires in 2020. Not only that, its
portfolio in Australia is still running at a loss with no clear turnaround yet.
Only new 282 MWe (or +4%) committed to COD in 2018-2019... Three committed
projects (Mouth Merald wind farm in Australia, Berkprai Cogeneration plant in Thailand
and and Xe Pian-Xe Namnay in Laos) with total capacity of 282 MWe are scheduled to
COD in 2018-2019 and raise RATCHs total capacity to 6,724 MWe. However, these do
not fully offset the PPAs expiring in 2019-2020. We do not include its 10% holding in
the new 2,360MW nuclear power plant in China with COD scheduled in 2021 in our
calculations, preferring to wait until we see more progress.
But investment opportunities from its strong financial status. RATCH is very
solidly grounded financially with only 0.13x net debt to equity as of 2016F. This gives it
the ability to grab any investment opportunities that come up. This is seen in its
commitment to inject 10% capital in a nuclear power plant in China (estimated project
capex is Bt200bn and with a 75:25 D/E ratio, we estimate RATCH will inject Bt5bn) and
its involvement in BSR JV. This JV, made up of BTS, STEC and RATCH, was announced as
the most competitive bidder for the Pink (Khae Rai-Min Buri) and Yellow (Lad PraoSam Rong) rapid transit lines though there are still many steps to go through before
this is signed and sealed. Additionally, its footprint in Laos could open more doors in
this promising area.
Rate Neutral with a Bt53 TP. We value RATCH based on sum-of-the-parts. Each
project is valued by discounted cash flow (DCF) based on projected free cash flow until
PPA expiry or 25 years for renewable power plants (based on equipment life) without
terminal value. We use Ke = 7.7%, derived from risk free rate = 3.5%, ERP = 6.5%, beta =
0.64 based on 10-year historical average of peers. This gives a target price of Bt53/sh
(consisting of Bt51.3/sh from operating assets and Bt2.4/sh for projects under
construction and deducting Bt0.9/sh for net debt). With the generous dividend yield of
4.52% and financial strength to support future investments helping make up for the
few committed projects, we rate it Neutral.
Year to 31 Dec
Revenue
EBITDA
Core profit
Reported profit
Core EPS
DPS
P/E, core
EPS growth, core
P/BV, core
ROE
Dividend yield
EV/EBITDA
Unit
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
(Bt)
(Bt)
(x)
(%)
(x)
(%)
(%)
(x)

Tel. (662) 686-2000
Fax: (662) 263-3272
www.scbs.com
2014
55,258
7,773
5,134
6,279
3.54
2.27
14.12
(0.59)
1.19
8.62
4.54
10.22
2015
57,435
7,197
4,522
3,188
3.12
2.27
16.03
(11.92)
1.20
7.48
4.54
11.30
2016F
51,675
6,640
5,643
5,643
3.89
2.27
12.85
24.80
1.16
9.20
4.54
12.11
2017F
53,033
6,338
6,246
6,246
4.31
2.27
11.61
10.69
1.11
9.76
4.54
12.27
2018F
61,402
6,512
6,576
6,576
4.54
2.27
11.02
5.28
1.05
9.80
4.54
11.42
Financial statement

FY December 31
Total revenue
Cost of goods sold
Gross profit
SG&A
Other income
Interest expense
Pre-tax profit
Corporate tax
Equity a/c profits
Minority interests
Core profit
Net Profit
EBITDA
Core EPS (Bt)
Net EPS (Bt)
DPS (Bt)

FY December 31
Total fixed assets
Total assets
Total loans
Total liabilities
Paid-up capital
Total equity
BVPS (Bt)
2014
55,258
47,914
7,344
2,207
1,361
1,518
4,979
1,269
1,285
139
5,134
1,145
6,279
7,773
3.54
4.33
2.27
2015
57,435
50,617
6,818
1,567
775
1,386
4,640
1,408
1,116
173
4,522
(1,334)
3,188
7,197
3.12
2.20
2.27
2016F
51,675
45,451
6,224
1,550
791
1,340
4,126
1,238
2,602
154
5,643
0
5,643
6,640
3.89
3.89
2.27
2017F
53,033
47,102
5,931
1,591
807
1,330
3,817
1,145
3,433
142
6,246
0
6,246
6,338
4.31
4.31
2.27
2018F
61,402
55,085
6,316
1,842
823
1,290
4,008
1,202
3,622
149
6,576
0
6,576
6,512
4.54
4.54
2.27
2014
31,408
64,827
96,235
21,199
16,050
18,986
35,036
14,500
60,782
41.92
2015
25,983
66,622
92,605
20,382
11,658
20,527
32,185
14,500
60,190
41.51
2016F
27,416
68,235
95,650
20,082
12,133
20,592
32,725
14,500
62,541
43.13
2017F
2018F
31,604
33,335
67,634
67,381
99,238 100,717
20,082
18,782
12,556
10,531
20,659
20,729
33,216 31,260
14,500
14,500
65,496 68,781
45.17
47.44
2014
5,134
1,275
9,971
(2,420)
(4,366)
3,185
2015
4,522
1,170
9,830
(6,248)
(6,741)
(3,159)
2016F
5,643
1,175
9,750
(5,841)
(3,438)
471
2017F
6,246
1,191
9,246
(3,492)
(3,149)
2,605
2018F
6,576
1,215
10,150
(3,719)
(4,442)
1,990
2014
13.3
9.3
14.1
9.0
11.4
8.6
5.4
0.11
5.1
0.5
52.4
2015
11.9
9.1
12.5
8.1
5.6
7.5
4.8
0.15
5.2
1.0
103.3
2016F
12.0
9.0
12.8
8.0
10.9
9.2
6.0
0.13
5.0
1.5
58.3
2017F
11.2
8.2
12.0
7.2
11.8
9.8
6.4
0.08
4.8
1.5
52.7
2018F
10.3
7.3
10.6
6.5
10.7
9.8
6.6
0.03
5.0
1.6
50.1

FY December 31
Core Profit
Operating cash flow
Investing cash flow
Financing cash flow
Net cash flow

Gross margin(%)
Operating margin(%)
EBITDA margin(%)
EBIT margin(%)
ROE (%)
ROA (%)
Net D/E (x)
Payout Ratio (%)

FY December 31
Total revenue
Cost of goods sold
Gross profit
SG&A
Other income
Interest expense
Pre-tax profit
Corporate tax
Equity a/c profits
Minority interests
Core profit
Net Profit
EBITDA
Core EPS (Bt)
Net EPS (Bt)

FY December 31
Total fixed assets
Total assets
Total loans
Total liabilities
Paid-up capital
Total equity
BVPS (Bt)
3Q15
14,861
12,858
2,003
374
102
340
1,390
362
136
(136)
1,028
(878)
149
2,023
0.71
0.10
4Q15
12,744
11,988
756
414
288
348
282
150
419
173
724
(88)
636
924
0.50
0.44
1Q16
13,313
11,560
1,752
371
125
327
1,180
309
358
(24)
1,205
54
1,259
1,801
0.83
0.87
2Q16
12,563
10,852
1,712
341
161
353
1,180
218
878
(47)
1,793
(668)
1,125
1,828
1.24
0.78
3Q16
11,161
9,907
1,254
360
189
362
721
181
534
(23)
1,051
(210)
842
1,237
0.72
0.58
3Q15
13,651
83,480
97,131
21,071
17,093
20,598
37,690
14,500
59,171
40.81
4Q15
25,983
66,622
92,605
19,182
11,658
20,527
32,185
14,500
60,190
41.51
1Q16
19,366
72,749
92,115
20,342
9,516
20,567
30,083
14,500
61,835
42.65
2Q16
23,615
71,737
95,353
20,751
13,420
20,860
34,280
14,500
60,897
42.00
3Q16
22,866
69,061
91,927
21,380
11,079
20,756
31,835
14,500
59,941
41.34
Main Assumptions
2014
5,286
Total capacity (Mwe)
2015
6,089
2016F
6,144
2017F
6,117
2018F
6,117
PE band chart
Price (Bt)
PE Band RATCH
120
100
20.0x
80
17.2x
14.4x
11.6x
60
40
8.8x
6.0x
20
Jul-17
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-13

Cumulative RATCH (RHS)
25.0%
1.0%
0.5%
20.0%
0.0%
15.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
10.0%
-1.5%
5.0%
-2.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
-3.0%
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
-3.5%
Feb-16
-5.0%
Jan-16
NA
Jan-14
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10

Jul-16
Jan-11
Jan-10
23
Disclaimer
SCB SECURITIES COMPANY LIMITED (SCBS) ACTS AS MARKET MAKER AND ISSUER OF DERIVATIVE WARRANTS on the ordinary shares AAV, ADVANC, ANAN, AOT, BA, BANPU, BBL, BCP,
BDMS, BEAUTY, BEC, BEM, BH, BJCHI, BLA, BLAND, BTS, CBG, CENTEL, CK, CPALL, CPF, CPN, DTAC, EARTH, EPG, ERW, GL, GLOW, GPSC, HMPRO, ICHI, INTUCH, ITD, IVL, KBANK, KCE, KKP,
KTB, KTC, LH, LHBANK, LPN, MAJOR, MTLS, PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, QH, ROBINS, SAMART, SAWAD, SCC, STEC, STPI, SVI, TASCO, TCAP, THAI, THCOM, TISCO, TOP, TPIPL, TRUE, TTA, TU, UNIQ,
WORK.
Before making an investment decision over a derivative warrant, an investor should carefully read the prospectus for the details of the said derivative warrants. Any opinion, news, research,
analyse, price, statement, forecast, projection and/or other information contained in this document (the Information) is provided as general purpose information only, and shall not be construed
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liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special or consequential loss or damage, resulting from the use of, or reliance on, the Information, including without limitation, damages for loss of profits.
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CG Rating 2016 Companies with CG Rating
AMATA, AOT, BAFS, BAY, BCP, BIGC, BTS, BWG, CK, CPF, CPN, CSL, DELTA, DEMCO, DRT, DTAC, DTC, EASTW, EGCO, GFPT, GPSC, GRAMMY, HANA, HMPRO, INTUCH, IRPC, IVL, KBANK, KCE,
KKP, KTB, KTC, LHBANK, LPN, MBK, MCOT, MINT, MONO, NKI, NYT, OTO, PHOL, PPS, PS, PSL, PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, QH, QTC, RATCH, SAMART, SAMTEL, SAT, SC, SCB, SCC, SCCC, SE-ED, SIM,
SITHAI, SNC, SPALI, SSSC, STEC, SVI, TCAP, THCOM, TISCO, TKT, TMB, TNDT, TOP, TSC, TTCL, TU, UV, VGI, WACOAL, WAVE
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SAMCO, SCG, SEAFCO, SFP, SIAM, SINGER, SIS, SMK, SMPC, SMT, SNP, SPI, SPPT, SPRC, SR, SSF, SST, STA, SUSCO, SUTHA, SWC, SYMC, SYNEX, SYNTEC, TAE, TAKUNI, TASCO, TBSP, TCC, TF,
TFI, TGCI, THAI, THANA, THANI, THIP, THRE, THREL, TICON, TIPCO, TK, TKS, TMC, TMI, TMILL, TMT, TNITY, TNL, TOG, TPC, TPCORP, TRC, TRU, TRUE, TSE, TSR, TSTE, TSTH, TTA, TTW,
TVD, TVO, TWPC, UAC, UP, UPF, VIH, VNT, WINNER, YUASA, ZMICO
AEC, AEONTS, AF, AIRA, AIT, AJ, AKR, AMARIN, AMATAV, AMC, APURE, AQUA, ARROW, AS, BA, BEAUTY, BEC, BH, BIG, BJC, BJCHI, BKD, BR, BROCK, BRR, BTNC, CBG, CGD, CHARAN, CITY,
CMR, COLOR, COM7, CPL, CSC, CSP, CSR, CSS, CTW, DCON, DIMET, DNA, EARTH, EASON, ECL, EFORL, EPCO, EPG, ESSO, FE, FER, FOCUS, FSMART, FSS, FVC, GEL, GIFT, GLAND, GOLD, GSTEL,
GYT, HPT, HTC, HTECH, IFS, IHL, ILINK, INSURE, IRCP, IT, ITD, J, JMART, JMT, JUBILE, JWD, KASET, KBS, KCAR, KGI, KKC, KOOL, KWC, KYE, LALIN, LPH, MAJOR, MAKRO, MATCH, MATI, MCHAI, MDX, MFEC, MJD, MK, MODERN, MPG, NC, NCL, NDR, NEP, NOK, NUSA, PATO, PCA, PDG, PF, PICO, PIMO, PL, PLAT, PLE, PMTA, PPM, PRIN, PSTC, QLT, RCI, RCL, RICH, RML, RPC, SANKO,
SAPPE, SAWAD, SCI, SCN, SCP, SEAOIL, SENA, SIRI, SKR, SLP, SMG, SMIT, SORKON, SPA, SPC, SPCG, SPVI, SSC, STANLY, STPI, SUC, TACC, TCCC, TCMC, TEAM, TFD, TFG, TIC, TIW, TKN,
TLUXE, TMD, TNP, TOPP, TPA, TPAC, TPCH, TPIPL, TPOLY, TRITN, TRT, TTI, TVI, TWP, U, UBIS, UMI, UPOIC, UT, UWC, VIBHA, VPO, VTE, WICE, WIIK, WIN, XO
Corporate Governance Report
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange
Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able
to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not base on inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that date. SCB Securities Company
Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
SMG was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on June 2, 2016
Anti-corruption Progress Indicator 2015
Certified ( )
ADVANC, AKP, AMANAH, ASP, AYUD, BAFS, BANPU, BAY, BBL, BCP, BKI, BLA, BTS, BWG, CENTEL, CFRESH, CIMBT, CNS, CPI, CPN, CSL, DCC, DEMCO, DIMET, DRT, DTAC, DTC, EASTW, ECL,
EGCO, ERW, FE, FSS, GBX, GCAP, GLOW, HANA, HTC, ICC, IFEC, INTUCH, IRPC, IVL, KBANK, KCE, KGI, KKP, KTB, KTC, LANNA, LHBANK, LHK, MBK, MBKET, MFC, MINT, MONO, MOONG, MSC,
MTI, NKI, NSI, OCEAN, PB, PE, PG, PHOL, PM, PPP, PPS, PR, PS, PSL, PT, PTG, PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, Q-CON, QLT, RATCH, S & J, SABINA, SAT, SCB, SCC, SCG, SINGER, SIS, SMPC, SNC, SNP, SPC,
SPI, SSF, SSI, SSSC, SVI, TCAP, TCMC, TF, TGCI, THANI, THCOM, THRE, THREL, TIPCO, TISCO, TMB, TMD, TNITY, TNL, TOG, TOP, TPC, TPCORP, TSC, TSTH, TTCL, TVI, WACOAL
Declared ()
2S, A, ABC, ABICO, ACAP, AEC, AF, AGE, AH, AI, AIE, AIRA, ALUCON, AMARIN, AMATA, ANAN, AOT, AP, APCO, APCS, APURE, AQUA, AS, ASIA, ASIAN, ASIMAR, ASK, BCH, BEAUTY, BFIT, BH,
BIGC, BJCHI, BKD, BLAND, BROCK, BROOK, BRR, BSBM, BTNC, CEN, CGH, CHARAN, CHO, CHOTI, CHOW, CI, CM, COL, CPALL, CPF, CPL, CSC, CSR, CSS, DELTA, DNA, EA, ECF, EE, EFORL, EPCO,
ESTAR, EVER, FC, FER, FNS, FPI, FSMART, FVC, GC, GEL, GFPT, GIFT, GLOBAL, GPSC, GREEN, GUNKUL, HMPRO, HOTPOT, ICHI, IEC, IFS, ILINK, INET, INOX, INSURE, IRC, J, JAS, JMART, JMT,
JTS, JUBILE, JUTHA, K, KASET, KBS, KC, KCAR, KSL, KTECH, KYE, L&E, LALIN, LPN, LRH, LTX, LVT, M, MAKRO, MALEE, MBAX, MC, MCOT, MEGA, MFEC, MIDA, MILL, MJD, MK, ML, MPG, MTLS,
NBC, NCH, NCL, NDR, NINE, NMG, NNCL, NPP, NTV, NUSA, OCC, OGC, PACE, PAF, PCA, PCSGH, PDG, PDI, PIMO, PK, PLANB, PLAT, PRANDA, PREB, PRG, PRINC, PSTC, PYLON, QH, RML, ROBINS,
ROCK, ROH, ROJNA, RP, RWI, SAMCO, SANKO, SAUCE, SC, SCCC, SCN, SEAOIL, SE-ED, SENA, SGP, SITHAI, SKR, SMIT, SMK, SORKON, SPACK, SPALI, SPCG, SPPT, SPRC, SR, SRICHA, STA,
STANLY, SUPER, SUSCO, SYMC, SYNEX, SYNTEC, TAE, TAKUNI, TASCO, TBSP, TEAM, TFG, TFI, THAI, TIC, TICON, TIP, TKT, TLUXE, TMC, TMI, TMILL, TMT, TPA, TPP, TRT, TRU, TRUE, TSE, TSI,
TSTE, TTW, TU, TVD, TVO, TVT, TWPC, U, UBIS, UKEM, UNIQ, UOBKH, UREKA, UWC, VGI, VIBHA, VNG, VNT, WAVE, WHA, WICE, WIIK, WIN, XO, ZMICO
N/A
AAV, ACC, ADAM, AEONTS, AFC, AHC, AIT, AJ, AJD, AKR, ALLA, ALT, AMATAV, AMC, APX, AQ, ARIP, ARROW, ASEFA, ASN, ATP30, AUCT, BA, BAT-3K, BCPG, BDMS, BEC, BEM, BGT, BIG, BIZ, BJC,
BLISS, BM, BOL, BPP, BR, BRC, BSM, BTC, BTW, BUI, CBG, CCET, CCN, CCP, CGD, CHEWA, CHG, CHUO, CIG, CITY, CK, CKP, CMO, CMR, CNT, COLOR, COM7, COMAN, CPH, CPR, CRANE, CSP,
CTW, CWT, DAII, DCON, DCORP, DRACO, DSGT, DTCI, EARTH, EASON, EIC, EKH, EMC, EPG, ESSO, F&D, FANCY, FMT, FN, FOCUS, FORTH, GENCO, GJS, GL, GLAND, GOLD, GRAMMY, GRAND,
GSTEL, GTB, GYT, HARN, HFT, HPT, HREIT, HTECH, HYDRO, IHL, IRCP, IT, ITD, ITEL, JCT, JSP, JWD, KAMART, KCM, KDH, KIAT, KKC, KOOL, KTIS, KWC, KWG, LDC, LEE, LH, LIT, LOXLEY, LPH,
LST, MACO, MAJOR, MANRIN, MATCH, MATI, MAX, M-CHAI, MCS, MDX, METCO, MODERN, MPIC, NC, NEP, NETBAY, NEW, NEWS, NFC, NOBLE, NOK, NPK, NWR, NYT, OHTL, OISHI, ORI, OTO,
PAE, PAP, PATO, PERM, PF, PICO, PJW, PL, PLE, PMTA, POLAR, POMPUI, POST, PPM, PRAKIT, PRECHA, PRIN, PRO, PTL, QTC, RAM, RCI, RCL, RICH, RICHY, RJH, RPC, RS, S, S11, SAFARI, SALEE,
SAM, SAMART, SAMTEL, SAPPE, SAWAD, SAWANG, SCI, SCP, SEAFCO, SELIC, SF, SFP, SGF, SHANG, SIAM, SIM, SIMAT, SIRI, SLP, SMART, SMM, SMT, SOLAR, SPA, SPG, SPORT, SPVI, SQ, SSC,
SST, STAR, STEC, STHAI, STPI, SUC, SUTHA, SVH, SVOA, SWC, T, TACC, TAPAC, TC, TCB, TCC, TCCC, TCJ, TCOAT, TFD, TGPRO, TH, THANA, THE, THIP, THL, TIW, TK, TKN, TKS, TM, TMW,
TNDT, TNH, TNP, TNR, TNPC, TOPP, TPAC, TPBI, TPCH, TPIPL, TPOLY, TPROP, TR, TRC, TRITN, TRUBB, TSF, TSR, TTA, TTI, TTL, TTTM, TUCC, TWP, TWZ, TYCN, UAC, UEC, UMI, UMS, UP, UPA,
UPF, UPOIC, UT, UTP, UV, UVAN, VARO, VI, VIH, VPO, VTE, WG, WINNER, WORK, WORLD, WP, WR, YCI, YNP, YUASA
Explanations
Companies participating in Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programmed (Thai CAC) under Thai Institute of Directors (as of October 28, 2016) are categorized
into: companies that have declared their intention to join CAC, and companies certified by CAC.
24

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Industry update

Friday, December 23, 2016

Friday, December 23, 2016

Opportunities can still be found

Rating Price Target ETR

EPS growth (%)

Source: SCBS Investment Research

Friday, December 23, 2016

Seeking opportunities when not many are available

Total of 7.7 GW new capacity from

Source: PDP 2015, EPPO

but some opportunities can still be found

Friday, December 23, 2016

Source: Company reports and SCBS Investment Research

Friday, December 23, 2016

Figure 3: Power plants in Laos that send power to Thailand

EDL (Laos) 60%

EDL (Laos) 20%

Nam Theun 2 HPP

LHSE (Laos) 25%

Nam Ngum 2 HPP

Nam Ngiep 1 (2019)

Xe Pian Xe Namnoy (2019)

Xayaburi HPP (2019)

EDL (Laos) 20%

Nam Theun 1 HPP

Source: Laos PDRs Department of Energy Business and CKP

Figure 4: Planned power plants in the mainstream Mekong River

Source: Laos PDRs Department of Energy Business

Friday, December 23, 2016

Source: Laos PDRs Department of Energy Business

Thailand: Need to reduce risk of power shortage in the South

Friday, December 23, 2016

Committed projects to grow total capacity by 19%

Figure 8: % capacity breakdown into operating assets

EGCO RATCH GLOW

Source: Company reports and SCBS Investment Research

Source: Company reports and SCBS Investment Research

Figure 9: New capacity from committed projects

Figure 10: New capacity from committed projects in

RATCH BCPG GLOW

Source: Company reports and SCBS Investment Research

EGCO RATCH GLOW

Source: Company reports and SCBS Investment Research

Friday, December 23, 2016

Interest rate uptrend already factored in

Source: Company reports and SCBS Investment Research

Valuations and recommendations

58% of portfolio to COD over next two years

BCPG has a portfolio of solar plants with attractive incentive schemes

Last close (Dec 22) (Bt)

BCPG Stock Price

Source: SET. SCBS Investment Research

Source: SET. SCBS Investment Research

SOTP value at Bt17/share. We value BCPG based on the sum-of-the-parts. Each

Source: SCBS Investment Research

Tel. (662) 686-2000

Friday, December 23, 2016

12 Month cumulative chg in foreign ownership versus

Cumulative Change in Foreign Ownership

Cumulative SET (LHS)

Cumulative BCPG (RHS)

2015 2016F 2017F 2018F