ARE ONTARIOS

LIBERALS
DESTINED FOR
FAILURE?
HOW WE DID
IN 2016

YOU COULD BE
THE NEXT NDP
LEADER

WHAT TO
EXPECT FROM
PRESIDENT
DONALD TRUMP

2016 was less active than 2015 with a stable majority Liberal government in Ottawa and largely predictable
Provincial elections in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Despite the sudden and untimely demise of The
Strategists Podcast, our friend Zain Velji has returned to ask Quito Maggi about the coming year, last year
and how polling changed (if at all) in 2016.
We had some very surprising
elections this year around the
world, most notably Brexit and
the US Presidential election. I
know Mainstreet has focused on
Canada so far but how do you
think polling held up overall in
2016?
After
what
was
a
largely
successful year for the industry in
Canada in 2015, we saw a return to
some of the same catastrophic
failures around the world including
Grexit,
Brexit,
the
FARC
referendum in Colombia and, of
course, the US election. The red
ags have been going up for years
and it appears few eorts are
being made to correct the
mistakes we have seen in the past.
Here at home, we saw consistent
polling in Saskatchewan and
Manitoba and limited but accurate
polling in the Saskatchewan
Municipal election.
Overall what dominated the
industry was the US election and
although
some
polling
did
accurately reect the national
outcome, few, if any, pointed
accurately to a Donald Trump
Presidency, even if they accurately
predicted the popular vote. The
proliferation
of
aggregators
continues to muddy the waters
further as most predicted a
80-95% chance of a Clinton
Presidency.
The
aggregators
dominate the media presence, but
their processes and models are
not subject to the same kind of
scrutiny and standards as true
polling, leading to public and
media
confusion
when
the

outcome is unexpected.

research industry here at home.

This is a continuation of what we

saw in Canada in 2015, where
some media invested in and
partnered
with
aggregators
instead of polling rms. While the
aggregators can provide valuable
insights on seat projections using
national and regional polling
numbers, the data comes from
pollsters. This may lead to fewer
polls in the long run as the market
for publicly released polling
continues
to
decrease
and
privately
commissioned
work
increases.

You wrote a lot of commentary on

the US Presidential election and
pointed to the polling failures in
the Primaries as a possible hint
that Trump might win the election.
What led you to believe that
Donald Trump might win and
what do you think it means to the
future of polling?

I started following the US

Presidential election during the
Primaries and immediately noticed
the style of politics employed by
Donald Trump, what I call school
yard politics. His exaggerated
The industry continued some mannerisms, his bully tactics,
challenges that began in 2015, name calling of the other
what I referred to then as self candidates which continued in to
inicted wounds. The formation the general election. In our
of CAPOR in 2015 was short lived research, we have identied three
and we have now learned of its distinct types of voters which we
possible merger with MRIA in early call head, heart and gut
2017. New publication standards at voters.
MRIA introduced in the spring of
2016 have now been revised to Head voters make informed and
support a level playing eld and rational decisions about their
we hope a stable set of standards voting preference, heart voters
will allow the industry to thrive. We make emotional decisions on
are thankful the MRIA chose to voting and gut voters make
irrational
and
listen and integrate some of our sometimes
uninformed decisions about their
feedback on polling standards.
vote. While Trumps opponents had
The US election did bring some the lions share of head voters, he
valuable lessons about standards dominated the heart and gut
and regulation for the industry voters whos motivations are more
that should have a positive eect dicult to predict. Based on that, I
in Canada. While CRTC is had said that Trump won the rst
contemplating
changes
that debate versus Hillary Clinton,
would be more in line with the US because he appealed at a level
rules set by the FCC, the polling that was understood by 70% of the
while
Clintons
failures that resulted should raise a electorate,
red ag on the eects of over approach only served to reinforce
regulation in the Public Opinion what head voters already knew.

Mainstreet did conduct some test

polling during the 2015 cycle,
including the Primaries and weve
learned a great deal about
dierences
and
similarities
between Canada and the US this
past year. With such a large market
and a vast number of players, it did
not make sense for Mainstreet to
go it alone so we began exploring
some possible collaborations. I
cant yet announce who our
collaborators are but it is a
prominent polling organization
and we are all very excited to get
started early in the New Year.

I later pointed to the polling error

in the Primaries versus results. In
the 15 battleground States, Trump
over performed and Clinton under
performed
signicantly.
This
included states like Pennsylvania
where Trump over performed the
Primary polling by almost 10%, and
Ohio where he over performed by
8%.
These
few
critical
battleground States made the
dierence in the end, and
delivered the electoral college win
that Trump needed.
In the month ahead, Mainstreet will
be announcing a major expansion
in to the United States market. We
will be collaborating with an
established polling organization
and begin polling extensively
during the 2017 calendar year and
be in full operation for the 2018
mid term elections.
Was there anything that surprised
you in 2016?
The by-election in Ottawa-Vanier
where we expected a close

contest which was instead a

blowout win by the Wynne
Liberals. We have been tracking
the decline of the Ontario Liberals
and the rise of Patrick Browns PCs
all year and with the current
climate and approval numbers for
the Wynne Liberals, this result was
unexpected.
Our earlier province wide polls did
show a resilient strength in the
Liberal brand across the Province.
It is too early to say what will
happen in a 2018 general election,
but if numbers continue in the
direction they are headed, we
could see a massive change in the
Legislature. The Liberal machine
and the far more experienced
Wynne Liberals may still have a
few surprises up their sleeves and
it is denitely too early to write
them o entirely.
What's next, you mentioned
earlier that you are planning to
expand in to the US next year, that
sounds exciting, can you tell us
more?

This past year we also invested in

the development of focus group
and dial testing technology and
will be sharing results of our
results in a number of areas.
Primarily, we have focused on the
Conservative leadership race but
weve also conducted dial testing
and focus groups in BC about the
coming election and energy policy,
the PC Leadership in Alberta and
Ontario politics leading up to 2018.
Moreover we continue to invest
heavily
in
research
and
development and there are new
technologies we will be bringing
online in 2017 that we think will
have a signicant impact on the
industry. Already we are seeing the
benets of our R&D investment
with the success of our Chimera
IVR program that integrates voice
capture, advanced rotations and
dialpad technology.
Chimera IVR has been a runaway
success and surpassed every
expectation. Were hopeful some
of our newest innovations will be
received just as warmly by the
Canadian market and in the
coming days, the US market.
As always we remain focused on
accuracy and continue to do our
part to increase public condence
in polling. That means we must
continue to get things right - no
excuses.
- Ottawa, December 12, 2016.

NORTH AMERICA
US ELECTION

The years most prominent polling

asco, pollsters in the American
election consistently underestimated
Donald Trumps level of support. While
natonal polls were largely awed, state
polls were worse most notorious were
predictions in Pennsylvania and
Michigan. Pre-election Ipsos polls in
these two states gave Hillary Clinton
seven and four point leads, respectively.
Trumps wins in these two states (as
well as Wisconsin) were the most
surprising, yet polls also showed
Clinton with leads in Florida, North
Carolina and the second district of
Maine all of which Trump carried en
route to the White House.

SOUTH AMERICA
FARC REFERENDUM

EUROPE
BREXIT

In the lead-up to Columbians casting

their ballots in an October 2nd
referendum on whether to accept or
reject a peace deal the government had
negotiated with the FARC rebel group,
polls showed it would be safely
approved by the public. Every poll
published during the campaign, most of
which came out throughout the month
of September, gave the yes side at
least a 15-point lead. One of the nal
polls, an Ipsos survey released near the
end of September, put the yes camp a
staggering 32 points ahead. Yet the
people proved the polls spectacularly
wrong, with 50.22% of Colombias
voters rejecting the accord.

At rst it appeared as if this years

worst polling performance would be
the United Kingdoms referendum on
European Union membership known
as Brexit. Polls consistently showed
healthy leads for the Remain campaign,
with nal averages giving it a lead over
the Leave side beyond the margin of
error. The nal telephone poll
(conducted by Ipsos poll on the eve of
the vote) showed Remain ahead by
three points; most online surveys gave
Remain an even bigger lead. Yet the
results of the June 22nd referendum
were the near opposite of the polls,
with Britons voting 52-48 to leave
European Union.

POLLING FAILURES

A VERY SPECIAL THANK-YOU

Introducing Mainstreets Live & O the Record Brieng series - a very special thank-you for
our most loyal clients.
Lately weve been doing a lot of work you havent heard
about. In preparation for the rollout of our new proprietary
focus group software weve been travelling the country to
nd out what Canadians really think about some of the
most important topics aecting Canadas economy and
political climate.
Now were ready to share our ndings with you. Each Live
and O the Record Brieng is an exclusive conference call
with our top sta to discuss the results of nationwide
focus groups and polls. Each call is focused on a dierent
political battleeld.
Nationally, well be discussing new information that we will
not be releasing to the public. This includes the results of
new national polling, and the ndings from two focus
groups held simultaneously with the Conservative
Leadership Debates. Well be taking a close look at the
best strategy and paths forward for the leadership
candidates and will be sharing the results of our riding
simulations, membership projections and poll of
Conservative Donors.
Each call will use secure technology to restrict access.
Every participant will be provided a call-in code that can
only be used once - if two people try to use it at the same
time, the second individual will be unable to log-on.
Following every call we will oer a private 20 minute Q&A
session with sta so that your questions are answered on a
one-on-one basis.
We are pleased to oer all national* clients free admission
to our National Brieng Call, and a reduced rate to all
other Mainstreet clients. A small number of tickets to these
events will be made available to non-clients with strict
terms and conditions.
Well be e-mailing you soon with more information. We
hope youll join us for a very special session that allows us
to say thank-you.

Quito Maggi
President & CEO, Mainstreet Research

LIVE &
OFF THE
RECORD
January 16
National
January 23
British Columbia
January 26
Alberta
January 31
Ontario
February 2
Toronto

Mainstreet denes National Clients as those who have spent over $100,000 at Mainstreet Research in 2016.

SPOTLIGHT

Our National Call is all about the Conservative Leadership Race

Dial Test
Results from two dial test
groups conducted
simultaneously with the
Saskatoon and Moncton
Leadership Debates.

Donor Survey
Results from a national
poll of Conservative
Donors (screened for
membership of course).
The best real read of how
the existing membership
base plans to vote.
Multiple ballots explored.

Riding Simulations
Analysis of which ridings
will inuence the
Leadership race the most
- where it makes sense to
concentrate and where it
doesnt. Primer on how
the leadership race will
operate.

Ticketing
Mainstreet is pleased to
oer all National* clients
free entry to our National
Brieng Call on the
Conservative Leadership
Race. Non-National
Clients are eligible for a
discounted rate.
Non-Client rate:
$5,000 CAD + HST
FOR MORE INFORMATION & ORDER FORM: BRIEFING@MAINSTREETRESEARCH.CA

CALGARY GREENWAY

WHITBY

Most Accurate Pollster of the Calgary

Greenway by election.

Most Accurate Pollster of the

Whitby by election.

SASKATCHEWAN

MANITOBA

Most Active Pollster of Saskatchewans

general election, top results within MoE.

Most Active Pollster of Manitobas general

election, top results within MoE.

Will 2018 nally be the year that Ontarians

opt for new party to run Queens Park?

ONTARIO
Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario
Liberals are doomed. They are widely
unpopular and lagging in opinion
polls. They have no chance of winning
the next election.
If that sounds familiar, thats because
its been said before in the lead up
to the last election, the one before
that (when the party was led by
Dalton McGuinty), and the one before
that as well. Will 2018 nally be the
year that Ontarians opt for new party
to run Queens Park? Eighteen
months before the next election,
Kathleen Wynnes Liberals face
obvious pitfalls yet still hold some
surprising advantages.
Wynnes Liberal government which
will be a decade and a half old by
2018 seems to be the embodiment
of the term long in the tooth. The
Ontario Liberals are the
second-longest serving provincial
government in Canada. Only the BC
Liberals have been in power longer
(by two years). Wynne herself has
been Premier for longer than all but
two of Canadas First Ministers. That
may be a bigger factor than Hydro
Rates, the Hydro One privatization
and scandals combined in
determining her chances of
re-election.
Yet those shouldnt be discounted
either. The issue of hydro continues to
bedevil the Liberals; anger is
mounting in the province over the
seemingly endless increases in energy
prices. Whether Wynne and her
government fully deserve the blame
for all this is a matter of debate; yet
there is little doubt that moves such
as the Cap and Trade Plan and partial
privatization of Hydro One are seen as
driving up their hydro rates and draw
the ire of the public. Nasty labour
disputes with the provinces doctors
and teachers continue while Ontarios
large debt burden keeps increasing.
Various scandals also dog the
government. The ongoing saga over
the Sudbury by-election has persisted
for almost two years now. Though it
appeared to be fading, the laying of
charges against Liberal campaign
director (and Wynnes former Deputy
Chief of Sta) Patricia Sorbara
returned the issue to the front pages
last October. Her trial will occur
before the election. The partys
fundraising practices were subject to
much scrutiny through 2016,
prompting shifting responses that
nally culminated in major changes to

Ontarios political fundraising laws.

The trial of two former Dalton
McGuinty aides is also slated to occur
in 2017, bringing more headlines that
Wynne and company could denitely
live without.
The last issue to consider is the old
balance theory, which supposes that
when a government of one party is in
power federally, the chances of the
same party winning or holding power
in Ontario is greatly diminished.
Indeed, its only happened three times
in the past century.
Yet Wynne and her party do have
some advantages. Viewed in the full
context of history, its possible that
the Wynne Liberals really havent
been in charge all that long. Ontario
has seen long-serving governments
before the Liberals governed for 34
years from 1971 to 1905 under ve
dierent premiers, while the PC Big
Blue Machine ran the province for
over four decades under John
Robarts, Bill Davis and several others
from 1943 to 1985. Indeed, its
possible to view Ontario politics as
having competing eras of stability and
volatility.
Wynne has repeatedly signaled a
willingness to tackle big issues, and
shell have several achievements to
tout on the campaign trail. The rollout
of the governments signature
initiative a massive infrastructure
investment has largely gone well.
Shovels are in the ground, while the
earlier projects of the McGuinty years
are nally bearing fruit; including the
407 extension and Spadina subway
expansion (the TTCs largest in 50
years). The governments free tuition
plan, unveiled in the 2016 budget, has
proved popular. Other moves like beer
and wine in grocery stores and an
aggressive (and internationally
praised) campaign to tackle sexual
violence on university campuses are
also seen favourably.
Furthermore, the Liberals are no
strangers to scandal. From e-health
the gas plants, the party has been hit
by all manner of controversies each of
their successful re-election
campaigns. Seemingly each time the
party has been able to focus attention
elsewhere. The hyperbole of the
opposition, media and even police has
sometimes overstated these
controversies; indeed the OPP
recently apologized to Energy
Minister Glenn Thibeault for

exaggerating his supposed role in the

Sudbury aair.
Wynne herself cannot be counted out
either. Since losing a 1999 nomination
to Michael Byrant, the future Premier
has beat the odds at every possible
opportunity. She was twice an
underdog in Don Valley West (besting
rst a cabinet minister and then PC
leader John Tory), came from behind
to win the Liberal leadership in 2013
and pulled o a wholly surprising win
(with a majority, no less) in the
election the following year. One of
Canadas most skilled politicians, she
undoubtedly has tricks up her sleeve.
The same can be said of her partys
electoral machine, far superior to
those of her rivals.
Yet the biggest reason to believe that
the Liberals may triumph again is the
abysmal record of their opponents.
Whether it was 100,000 job cuts in
2014, chain gangs and
anti-immigration ideas in 2011 or
public funding for religious schools in
2007, PC leaders have time and again
snatched defeat from the jaws of
victory. Consistently falling victim to
unforced errors during campaigns, the
PCs have allowed their own struggles
to distract from elections that should
be about the governing party.
Though Patrick Brown has attempted
to professionalize his party and move
it to the centre, his success in this
regard remains to be seen. The
persistence of social issues be it
through this summers (quickly
rescinded) promise to roll back
changes to the sex-ed curriculum or a
leaked tape of comments from MPP
Rick Nicholls remains a problem for
the PCs. There are lingering internal
divisions over Browns leadership in
the party and caucus, including by
some of its most prominent (and
popular) members. Its too early to
say if these will get worse or be xed
ahead of the next campaign.
With a year and a half remaining until
Ontarians go to the polls, there is still
much to be written. The playing eld
that confronts the parties in the
spring of 2018 may yet look very
dierent. It is easy to see why
Kathleen Wynne might be doomed,
with plenty of weak spots in her
policy and politics - but her
opposition is far from perfect. The
one thing we know is Ontarians are in
for a long, wild ride between now and
election day. - QM

RIDINGS TO WATCH
The next election may come down to a few key battlegrounds. Heres a breakdown of where we
expect the ercest battles.

Riding

Parties

Beaches
-East York
(Toronto)

Liberals
vs
NDP

After winning by just 431 votes over incumbent

Michael Prue, Liberal Arthur Potts will face a
dicult re-election. This is a seat the NDP need
to take back if their fortunes are going to
improve.

Andrea Horwaths Toronto

campaign. Last election she
bled Toronto seats in a play
for the 905.

BarrieSpringwaterOro-Medonte

PCs
vs
Liberals

Patrick Brown could run here - or he could run in

the neigbouring Barrie-Innisl seat. Either way, if
Barrie MPP Anne Hogarth runs again it will be
here where the federal Tories won by only 86
votes.

Patrick Brown could opt for

the easier race and choose
Barrie-Innisl to avoid ghting
an incumbent MPP.

Markham
Unionville

Liberals
vs
PCs

One of the only GTA seats to be won by the

Conservatives federally, look for the Liberals and
PCs to target both Markham-Unionville and
Markham Thornhill.

Minister Michael Chan hasnt

announced if he will seek
re-election - or where.

Oshawa

NDP
vs
PCs

After targeting Oshawa for years the NDP nally

scored a victory in 2014. The PCs will want this
seat back and Andrea Horwath faces a dicult
balancing act to keep this seat and win back
former 416 strongholds.

Jennifer French. The race may

come down to the incumbent
MPPs personal popularity in
the riding.

Kanata
-Carleton

PCs
vs
PCs

PC MPP Jack Maclaren is in hot water after a

number of serious missteps. Now he faces two
challengers for the PC nomination including a
retired police ocer.

If Maclaren wins the

nomination it may give the
Liberals the opening they
need to recruit a star
candidate.

Mississauga
Erin Mills

Liberals
vs
PCs

A new riding made up mostly from Mississauga

Erindale, Harinder Takhar is not expected to run
again making this an open seat. If Kathleen
Wynne can keep seats like this it bodes well for
re-election.

Mississaugas large Sikh

population. Patrick Brown has
been targeting Sikh votes with
a new policy on Turbans and
motorcycles.

His very election and

re-election were major
accomplishments but
Jagmeet Singh now
faces a dicult
choice: stay at
Queens Park or run
for the leadership of
the Federal NDP.

In play because...

Wildcard

Some people might

forget but Jagmeet
Singh rst ran to be a
federal member of
parliament. He lost
that election but
came close - and rode
the momentum from
his near victory to win
the only NDP seat in
the 905 in 2011.

recruitment and an
eective surrogate
recognized for his
work on auto
insurance.

within and outside

the Sikh community
would pay dividends
in a delegated
convention.

Now he must decide

if he wants to throw
his turban in the race
for the Federal NDP
leadership.

His re-election
campaign saw him
become a strong
regional player for his
party: active in
candidate

Well liked, well

spoken and with
good political
instincts, Singh would
be a front-runner. His
ability to orgnaize

If Singh were to
remain at Queens
Park he would likely
run for the provincial
leadership if Andrea
Horwath doesnt win
the next provincial
campaign. So for
Jagmeet here is the
choice: does he want
to try for Premier or
PM?

Ontario Horserace

43%
27%
25%
6%

11/07/16

Wynne

Brown

Horwath

15% Approve

51% Approve

59% Approve

67% Disapprove

30% Disapprove

30% Disapprove

18% Not Sure

19% Not Sure

11% Not Sure

THE NDP
For New Democrats nationwide, the
past year was to put it mildly one
theyd prefer to forget. Federally, the
NDP trails badly in the polls and is
currently leaderless. Provincially, the
Manitoba NDP was ousted from power
in
this
springs election;
their
compatriots next door gained only a
single seat in their third consecutive
loss to the Saskatchewan Party both
are also leaderless. Ideologically, New
Democrats from coast to coast are
locked in a protracted struggle over
the Leap Manifesto and the partys
future direction, threatening to rip the
whole movement apart.

2016 deciminated
NDP Leaders: Tom
Mulcair in
Edmonton,
Cam Broten in
Saskatoon, and
Greg Sellinger in
Manitoba. What
comes next?
Dr. Joseph Angolano

Thus far, the

race to lead
the NDP has
been marked
by its
incredible
lack of
interest.

Given their third place status in the

House of Commons and disappointing
showing in last years election (despite
their 44 seats representing the partys
second best ever result), the NDPs
rank and le made the historic
decision to oust Thomas Mulcair at last
Aprils convention, where he posted a
meager 48% support in the leadership
review.
This
repudiation
was
completely without precedent
Mulcair is the rst chief of any national
party to lose a leadership review
outright. In comparison, the 66.9% that
Joe Clark received in the 1983 PC
leadership review which famously
caused him to resign the leadership
seems to like a landslide.
Yet an even more important story that
emerged
from
the
Edmonton
Convention may have been the debate
over the Leap Manifesto, one of the
most controversial documents in
recent political history. Spearheaded
by activists Naomi Klein and Avi Lewis
(son of NDP luminary Stephen Lewis),
the manifesto calls for the wholesale
transformation of the Canadian
economy, abandonment of fossil fuels
and end to international trade
agreements. Supported by much of
the grassroots, the manifesto was
strongly opposed in the convention by
the government of Rachel Notley
now the only NDP premier in Canada.
What will happen with the Leap
Manifesto remains to be seen; a
resolution at the convention referred it
to riding associations for debate. Yet
its impact is already becoming clear.
The
manifesto
represents
the
widening philosophical fault lines
within the NDP itself pro or
anti-market, fossil fuels, pipelines and

free trade.
How these struggles will play out in
the
partys
leadership
race
is
something to watch for in the coming
year that is, if any candidates actually
decide to take the plunge. Thus far, the
race to lead the NDP has been marked
by its incredible lack of interest.
Erstwhile candidates such as Brian
Topp (who nished second to Mulcair
in 2012), Nathan Cullen (who nished
third), and Paul Dewar (who nished
fth) have all declined to run. Other
prospective
contenders
including
Montreal MP Alexandre Boulerice,
former Halifax MP Meghan Leslie as
well as the aforementioned Klein and
Lewis have all demurred.
While the race has no declared
candidates a full eight months after
Mulcairs ousting, there has been a
modicum of interest within caucus.
Both Charlie Angus and Peter Julian
resigned their critics posts in late 2016
to consider leadership bids both
MPs are expected to declare their
candidacies early in 2017. Others
touted as potential candidates include
MPs Niki Ashton, Romeo Saganash,
Daniel Blaikie and Guy Caron. Outside
of caucus, potential candidates include
City Councilor Mike Layton, Jagmeet
Singh (Deputy Leader of the Ontario
NDP and media darling) and labour
leaders such as Sid Ryan and Hassan
Yussuf.
What will 2017 bring for the NDP?
Midway
between
last
Aprils
convention
and
the
October
leadership date, the leadership race is
still devoid of candidates; a telling sign.
When the race does get some players,
expect arguments about Leap to take
centre stage debates that will be
nothing short of explosive. Who is
right? Rachel Notley holds the one
orange bastion in the country right
now and cannot be ignored; yet
environmentalists and anti-free trade
advocates who are supporting the
Leap Manifesto have always been a
key part of the NDP base. This debate
could lead to ssures within the party
which risk becoming permanent.
NDP supporters will be hoping that
2017 will be better than 2016, but with
no federal leadership candidates and
potential civil war over the Leap
Manifesto, it could get much worse.

Peggy Nash

Megan Leslie

Brian Topp

Rachel Notley

SASKATCHEWAN
EVERYONE SAID
BRAD WALL
WOULD WIN
- AND HE DID.
Brad Walls greatest
challenge was never going
to be an election
campaign.
Saskatchewans election,
which you may have heard
happened this year,
delivered another
Saskatchewan Party
majority government.
Cam Broten, opposition
leader and leader of the
NDP, lost his seat.
He never really had a
chance but he certainly
didnt help matters by
running a wishy-washy
campaign and being
relentlessly negative at the
Leaders debate.
The Sask Party gunned for
the NDP from day one,
releasing opposition
research that cost the NDP
candidates, saw their
campaign manager red,
and that starved the NDP
of any opportunity to build
momentum.
The Sask Party did their
homework - the NDP did
not.
Meanwhile Brad Wall
travelled the province
extolling a simple,
emotional message about
perseverence and
changing provincial
fortunes. Saskatchewan he said, was no longer a

Election Results vs Final Poll

Saskatchewan Party
Saskatchewan:
62%
Saskatoon:
55%
Regina:
49%
NDP
Saskatchewan:
30%
Saskatoon:
38%
Regina:
43%

Saskatchewan Party
Saskatchewan:
60% (2%)
Saskatoon:
54% (1%)
Regina:
49% (-)
NDP
Saskatchewan:
31% (1%)
Saskatoon:
35% (3%)
Regina:
44% (1%)

Liberals Liberals
Saskatchewan:
4%
Saskatoon:
4%
Regina:
5%

Saskatchewan:
4% (-)
Saskatoon:
5% (1%)
Regina:
3% (2%)

Right on the numbers

You can see from the chart above we were pretty bang on with our nal
Saskatchewan election poll. Some numbers we got exactly right while on
others we were only o by one or two percent.

province where parents gifted new

graduates with luggage so they
could leave.
Brad Wall is not running for
Conservative Party leader - he has
said so numerous times now and we
believe him.

the real hits are yet to come. The

good news for the NDP is that it
may create an opening for the next
election but they are leaderless and
listless.

Instead, he will stay home and battle

a decit that, while modest, will
require a large re-organization of
provincial nances.

Brad Wall will want to leave a

balanced budget behind. How far he
is willing to go to get there will be
what to watch for in the coming
years. Its possible he wont run in
the next election and that this will
be his swan song.

Walls budget for 2016 takes some

modest steps towards balance but

What he does now is what hell be

remembered for. Well be watching.

Election Results vs Final Poll

Progressive Conservatives
Manitoba:
53%
Winnipeg:
43%
Rest of Manitoba:
66%
NDP
Manitoba:
26%
Winnipeg:
31%
Rest of Manitoba:
18%

Progressive Conservatives
Manitoba:
55% (2%)
Winnipeg:
47% (4%)
Rest of Manitoba:
68% (2)
NDP
Manitoba:
26% (-)
Winnipeg:
30% (1%)
Rest of Manitoba:
18% (-)

Liberals Liberals
Manitoba:
14%
Winnipeg:
17%
Rest of Manitoba:
10%

Manitoba:
11% (3%)
Winnipeg:
12% (5%)
Rest of Manitoba:
10% (-)

MANITOBA
Manitobas provincial election was
a slow moving train wreck for the
NDP. Its not like they couldnt see
this coming.

The race became about who

might replace him: would it be
Brian Pallister and the PCs or
Rana Bokhari and the Liberals?

After several NDP cabinet

ministers called for NDP Premier
Greg Selinger to resign, the NDP
held a leadership race. Only
problem was Greg Selinger
couldnt take a hint. He ran for the
leadership and barely clung
scoring just under 51%.

Whatever missteps the PC

campaign made were quickly
overshadowed by the sheer
incompetence of the Liberal
campaign.

What kind of victory is that?

Instead of a new leader and a
chance to hold onto government,
the NDP chose the leader they
knew with rock bottom approval
ratings.

There were some absurd

campaign promises; including the
time Bokhari promised to build a
multi million-dollar grocery store.
But what doomed the Liberal
campaign more than anything
else was Bokharis
communications skills, and her

lack thereof.
Several times during the campaign
she seemed dazed and confused,
talked in circles and appeared
generally unprepared. Behind the
scenes we heard she refused to
listen to advice - it was her way or
the highway. Well, it showed.
Instead of a Liberal breakthrough
in Manitoba we saw a massive PC
majority government. The NDP
meanwhile were thrown to the
opposition benches and Bokhari
failed to win her seat.
What happens next? Manitobas
NDP need a new leader - and so
do the Liberals. For once the
Manitoba Green party are ahead of
the curve, holding onto their
popular leader James Beddome.
For the Pallister Tories right now it
wont get any better. They are still
seeing honeymoon polling
numbers and their opposition is
divided and fractured. It wont last.
The next budget will test the
publics goodwill while the
economic climate means Premier
Pallister will need to make tough
decisions whether he wants to or
not.
Its easy to forget about Winnipeg
and Manitoba sometimes but in
many ways it is one of the most
interesting places to study.
The city and province are at a
cross roads. Growing rapidly more than any other province in
the country, Manitoba faces
unique challenges to address
reconciliation with indigenous
people.
Our own national polling found
Winnipeg to be considered the
most dangerous city, Macleans
recently called it the most racist.
The kind of city Winnipeg will be,
the kind of province Manitoba will
be is being shaped this very
moment. There will be ups and
downs but we would be foolish to
forget about Canadas heart - DV

PRESIDENT
TRUMP

What To Expect From

a Donald Trump
Presidency
For most of our shared history,
Canada and the United States have
been the best of friends. With a few
exceptions, the political, economic
and social ties between our two
countries have led to an
exceedingly close relationship for
the past century and a half. If
Canada had a Facebook account, its
relationship status would be
married to the US. Yet with the
election of Donald Trump, Canada
may now have to update that to its
complicated.

To the average Canadian, Trump is

not t or qualied to be President.
Canadians overwhelmingly approve
of President Obama, and would have
voted strongly for Hillary Clinton if
theyd been able to. Trumps approval
numbers in Canada, measured
throughout 2016, are worse than
those of any current Canadian
politician.
American politics, particularly on the
right end of the spectrum, are not
easy to understand. Prior to being
named the GOPs Vice-Presidential
candidate in July, 2000, Dick Cheney
was asked about the qualications of
then-nominee George W. Bush. His
answer has stuck with me for years as
a valuable insight into Republican
politics. Ronald Reagan was one of
the greatest Presidents this country
has ever had, said Cheney and he
only knew two things, that taxes are
bad and that he loves his country.
Well George W. knows even less than
that.
By this logic, so artfully employed by
the former Vice President, Americas
next President should be the greatest
of all time. The simplicity of Donald
Trump may be his greatest asset, as
terrifying as that might sound to
some (or most) of you. A more
thoughtful or sophisticated leader
could easily get bogged down with
facts and details, but that will not be
a challenge for the incoming
President.
The 45th President has made his
promise, now a mandate, crystal clear:
make America great again. What isnt
clear to most people is exactly how
he will do that (or even what it really
means.) Firstly, lets look at what
Donald Trump has said for some
hints.
First and foremost is making America
safe. That starts with building a wall
on the US-Mexico border, a ban on
Muslim immigrants extreme vetting
of all others.
Trumps proposed cabinet is now full
of former military leaders, signalling a
more aggressive foreign policy
particularly with regard to armed
intervention abroad. Hes said he will
boost military spending, increase
veteran support services and stand
up for law and order. He has
repeatedly promised to bring the
United States closer to Russia and
Israel while reassessing longstanding
American commitments to
international organizations like NATO.
He has also promised to take the US

out of the Iran Nuclear Deal and Paris

Climate Change Agreement.
Second is the economy, where Trump
has pledged to lower taxes for
businesses and individuals and bring
back jobs. Hes said hell kill the
proposed Trans Pacic Partnership
trade deal, renegotiate existing
agreements like NAFTA, and close
the trade gap with countries like
China and Mexico. Hes promised to
revive manufacturing and other
similar industries hurt by these deals,
revive the dying coal industry and
approve the Keystone XL pipeline
immediately.
Following these two are social issues
that Trump touched on during the
campaign. Hes said he will appoint
conservative justices to the Supreme
Court, even providing a list of
potential candidates following the
death of Antonin Scalia early in 2016.
Trump has vowed that his picks
would overturn Roe vs Wade but not
touch other things specically, he
has said that LQBTQ rights will be
protected. The only other social
policy he addressed is maternity
leave, where hes promised a
nationwide six-week leave for new
mothers.
What else might he do? Speculation
runs rampant, but for now I suspect
that we can take this President at
face value until he is convinced
otherwise - by his advisors or the
talking heads on cable news.
On immigration, it remains to be seen
whether a Muslim ban and
registry that featured so
prominently in his campaign will
happen once Trump takes oce.
More likely are restrictions on
immigration from certain countries,
which have been employed by
administrations of both parties in the
past. Given the progress already
made on their implementation, it will
be very dicult for Trump to
abandon the Iran Deal and Paris
Agreement. Its telling that former
General James Mattis, Trumps pick to
lead the Pentagon who was red
Obama administration for his hawkish
stance on Iran, supports keeping the
deal in place.
Destroying ISIS will be an even
greater challenge. How do you ght
an organization that has no clear
command and control structure? The
great irony is that all the technologies
that drove the rise of Trump himself
the internet, social media and
smartphones are where ISIS thrives.

An increased military presence in the

Middle East, with more strikes against
the ISIS in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere
would be attractive to Trump. Yet
lone wolf attacks will continue, as
there is no way to destroy this
enemy in traditional ways without
addressing the underlying
socio-economic disparity across the
globe. As America becomes great
again, the factors that are driving ISIS
may get worse.
The vexing issues Trump will face
ghting ISIS reveal what will likely be
his biggest challenge: foreign policy.
As President-elect, has already
caused several incidents ahead of
his inauguration, notably breaking the
One China policy, which has existed
for nearly four decades of
administrations of both parties.
Diplomacy is certainly not Trumps
strong suit. Its possible that his
approach will be good for America in
the long run; the President-elect is
direct and does not mince words.
Foreign leaders will not need to read
between the lines when it comes to
Donald Trump what he says in some
cases may be terrifying, but at least
he is clear. This is particularly true for
China and Mexico, the most
prominent targets of his campaign
rhetoric. Yet despite this clarity, he
often contradicts himself many
things hes said at one moment are at
odds with things hes said before or
after.
On the economy, we know that his tax
plan will benet the wealthiest
Americans and businesses. The GOP
controlled Congress will likely pass
sweeping tax cuts early in 2017,
allowing Trump (as well as House
Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate
Majority Leader Mitch McConnell) to
claim and early victory. Trump says he
doesnt believe in a minimum wage,
so perhaps he will be able to
encourage economic growth and
bring back jobs by competing with
the developing countries where most
manufacturing has shifted to over in
recent years.
That brings us back to Canada.
Unfortunately, (or fortunately,
depending on how you look at it), we
are not on Trumps agenda today. Yet
as is often the case with the
President-elect, that could change
drastically and suddenly at any time.
His promises surrounding NAFTA,
Keystone XL and several other things
will undoubtedly aect politics here
at home. As with most things Trump,
the best answer is to stay tuned.
- QM

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada