Conducting flood loss assessments (WMO)

During flood emergencies, the assessment of the extent of flooding, flood

losses and the needs of the effected communities is essential for flood relief
coordination.
Depending upon
1) The severity of the flood and
2) The level of preparedness of the affected area
The assessments have to be carried out under extraordinary conditions
involving varying degree of, chaos, time pressures and contingencies.
Collection of data and derivation of depth damage curves for specific areas
before the flood is of prime importance. Local stakeholders including
volunteer organizations, the private sector, farmers, residents, and other
local institutions need be closely involved to provide the basis for flood loss
assessments and the inputs from these stakeholders facilitate the design for
flood loss assessment;
Immediate estimates are drawn under chaotic circumstances and mounting
public pressure
These estimates provide the basis for reconstruction plans and for decisions
on flood management reform policies. Assessing potential flood losses is
important for the policy makers and the planners to balance between
development needs of particular area and the flood risk the society can
accept.
Flood losses is a vital element in analyzing net benefits society can derive
from using flood plains
Benefits are derived from using flood plains, for example the increased yield
from agriculture ,available space for development and availability of
transport links etc .Losses that are suffered from the flood damages as well
as the socio economic and environmental losses incurred due to flooding.
Benefits minus the losses will gives us the net benefits derivable from flood
plains.

Flood Loss assessments

Flood loss assessments are carried out for variety of purposes and different
purposes determine the outcome.

Fig Types of flood loss assessment at various phases

As illustrated in the Figure , depending on the context in which the
assessment is carried out, several purposes and uses of floor loss
assessments are distinguished .
The first stage of flood loss assessment is the rapid assessment for
emergency relief coordination during the flood. The second stage is the initial
assessment of damages in the first few weeks after the flood waters have
receded to inform and guide the recovery process. The third stage is the
comprehensive assessment of flood losses 3 to 6 months after the flood to
inform the policy reform processes as well as the reconstruction efforts
within the national and subnational planning. The fourth stage, is to use the
flood loss data for flood risk assessment and proposal of flood defenses and
mitigation measures. This stage is not trigged by the flood event and is
based on potential losses derived from synthetic stage damage relationships
or by empirical data from past flood events.

Flash Flood features

Flash floods are rapid onset floods that occur 6-12 hours or less after the
associated rainfall. Flash flood occurs mostly in mountainous or hilly regions
with steep terrains gradients and high surface run off. It can also be trigged
by the failure of a hydraulic structure such as dams ,levees etc
Due to the short lead time for advance preparation , protection ,warning and
evacuations, the losses of human life are substantial . The force of rapidly
flowing water poses serious threat to the structural stability of buildings and
infrastructure. It is difficult to predict the phenomenon and has short warning
lead time. In terms of damages, this means there is less time for preparatory
action , therefore the potential flood losses are closer to actual flood losses.
Types of Flood losses
Flood damages is related to the physical damage of a public or private assest
such as infrastructure, houses, vehicals etc. resultant of contact with flood
water. Whereas Flood losses has a much broader meaning and it depicts the
secondary or tertiary losses as well as intangible losses such as losses to
human life and others.
Most Commonly there are two main distinctions
1. Direct Losses Losses resulting from direct contact with flood water to
buildings and infrastructure.
2. Indirect Losses- Losses resulting from the event but not from its direct
impact for example disruption of transport, business losses that cannot
be made up , loss of family income etc
In both the loss category there two sub categories
1. Tangible losses- Loss od things that have monetary value for example
buildings, livestock, infrastructure etc
2.
Intangible losses- Loss of things that cannot be bought or sold for
example lives and injuries , heritage items etc
One of the basic decisions to take in flood loss assessment relates to
which loss categories to include and how to assess each one of them .

Flood loss assessment processes and methods

1. Rapid assessment during flood
During this phase the emphasis is to take necessary actions to avoid
loss of life and for minimizing the misery and suffering of the affected
population and to avoid secondary disasters.
A flood assessment at this phase is the basis for many decisions that
have to be taken by the different administrations i.e the local or
regional emergency response forces that have to be in position to
contain the situation. Assessment at this phase has very limited time
and has to be made with locally available resources.
The essential informations that can be collected at this phase are
a) People killed and injured , the population affected by the flood event
b) The assets that are flooded
c) People and assets at risk of being flooded further
d) Status of lifelines (accessibility of doors,hospitals,electricity
grid,water and food supply)
e) Current and expected water levels at various locations as well as
the weather conditions
The focus of this phase is the emergency response rather than the loss
estimation.
A meaningful flood damage assessment is difficult to produce at this stage as
the flood waters have not receded and therefore the entire extent of damage
cannot be assessed.

2) Early Recovery Assessment

This assessment is carried out after one to three weeks after the flood
event. The purpose of this phase will be to help guide the recovery and
reconstruction process. The focus of this assessment will be mainly on
tangiable and direct losses . Intangiable losses need more time for
assessment and the indirect losses may not be fully apparent yet. For
example the indirect losses concerning to trade and industry may not
be apparent at this stage.
The
UN
Economic
commission
for
Latin
America
and
Carribean(UNECLAC), has provided a standard and internationally

accepted methdolody for the assessment at this phase. The

methodology is based on
i)
Physical assets that will have to be repaired ,restored or replaced
or discounted in the future and
ii)
Flows that will not be produced until the asset is repaired or
rebuilt.
The UNECLAC futher conducts the assessment on sectoral basis
shown in the figure below

as

At this stage it is advisable to base assessment on actual costs and damages

i.e how much it would cost to replace he assets and income lost according to
their original specification and location (replacement cost).
3) In depth assessment 3 to 6 months after the flood.
In depth assessment of the full economic impact of the flood event can
be reliably conducted some 3-6 months after the event occurs. Most
losses including the indirect and intangiable losses can be asses with
sufficient reliability after 6 months. At this stage a flood loss
assessment should guide reconstruction plans as well as the future
flood management policy adjustments.
Figure:

Economics principles, issues and research priorities in hazard loss

estimation (ADAM ROSE)

Stocks vs flows
Fundamental distinctions made in economics is between stocks and flow.
Stocks refers to a quantity at a single point in time whereas flows refer to
services or outputs of stocks for time. Property damage represents a decline
in stock value and usually lead to a decrease in service flows. Business
interruption losses are a flow measure but it comes only in part from
companys own property damage.
Flow measures are superior to stock measures in many ways. Direct business
interruption losses can happen even in the absence of property damage for
example a factory maybe unaffected by an earthquake event but may be
forced to shut down due to the interruption of electricity due to induced
damages to power stations, substations, transmission lines or distribution
lines. If a machine has a useful life span of 10 years and is out of service for
3 weeks due to the hazard event, the repair cost and the value of lost
production are not equal. The latter one is the preferable measure. Flow
measures are more superior as they are more consistent with indices of
individual wellbeing such as business profits and consumer satisfaction or
aggregate measures such as gross national product. Flow measures are also
directly linked to indirect effects.
Double counting
In addition to the overlaps of stocks and flows, care should be taken to avoid
double counting in hazard loss estimation. Double counting can be avoided
by not attributing losses to more than one entity in case of private goods as
in the case of avoiding counting retails sale as a loss to both the storeowner
and its customers.
Direct and indirect effects

The characterization that direct losses pertain to property damage and

indirect loss pertains to business interruptions is not helpful as both have
direct and indirect components. Total business interruptions are the bottom
line, distinguishing components ensure everything is counted and provides
more precise information for decision making. The extent of business
interruption sets of a chain reaction as the business, customers and markets
are effected.
Many analyst are hesistant to measure indirect losses for various reasons
such as they cannot be readily verified as direct losses.

Non- Market Effects

The major area of attention to non market ascepts of natural hazards to date
has been on one part of the built environment public infrastructure such as
highways/bridges and utility lifeilines (electricity,gas and water). The various
flow impacts of natural hazards on the public sector built environment have
been termed infrastructure user costs . In the case of a highways washed
away by flood, there is no direct production loss measure. The direct losses
would be the lost revenue of business that are requires to shut down
because their employees could not get to work.

Time and recovery

Flow measures include time dimensions and hence are superior to the stock
measures. Stock measures pertain to the value of an asset at a single point
in time. Therefore typically damage is measured invariant to how long the
asset is out of service. Giving attention to flow measures, make us realize
that loss estimation is not just a definitive amount but is highly variable
depending on the length of the economic disruption. This is synonymous
with recovery plus reconstruction periods.
The broader objective should be to reduce the joint cost of impacts and
recovery/reconstruction.

ECONOMICS OF NATURAL DIASTER(Stephane hallegatte)

After a major disaster event, the media, insurance companies and

international institutes publish numerous assessments of the cost of the
disaster. Various assessments follow different methodologies and
approaches and they often reach quite different results. The purpose of the
assessment has to be defined clearly as different purposes correspond to
different perimeters of analysis and different definitions of what a cost is. The
value of what has been damaged or destroyed by a disaster is not a suffient
indicator of disaster seriousness, therefore estimating indirect cost are
crucial.

What is a disaster?
A natural disaster can be defined as a natural event that causes a
perturbation to the functioning of the economic system with a significant
negative impact on assets , production factors , output, employment or
consumption.
Example
of
such
events
are
earthquake,floods,storms,hurricanns etc

Several authors discuss about the distinction between direct and indirect
losses.
Direct losses are the immediate consequences of the disaster physical
phenomena . They are often classified as direct market losses and direct non
market losses. Market losses are losses to goods and services that are traded
in mares and for which a price can be easily observed. Direct market losses
from most diasters are losses of assets i.e damages to build environment and
manufactured goods . These losses can be estimated as the repairing or
replacement cost of the destroyed or damaged assets. Since building and
manufactured good can be bought on existing market, their prices are
known.Direct market losses can this be estimated using observed prices and
inventories of physical losses that can be observed.
Non-market direct losses include all damages that cannot be repaired or
replaced through purchases on a market. For them, there is no easily
observed price that can be used to estimate losses. For example, the health
impacts, loss of lives, natural assets damages and ecosystem losses, and
damage to historical and cultural assets. Sometimes, a price for a nonmarket impact can be built using indirect methods but these rarely
consensual. Eg the statical value of human life.

Indirect losses are losses that are not provoked by the disaster itself, but by
its consequences. Different hazard communities have different approaches
for defining indirect costs. For capital destroying hazard, indirect losses are
often called as output losses i.e. the reduction in economic production
provoked by the disaster. Output losses include the cost of business
interruption caused by disruptions of water or electricity supplies and longer
term consequences of infrastructure and capital damages. Costs are indirect
if they are spanning on a larger period of time, a larger spatial scale or on a
different economic sector than the disaster itself. Indirect losses can be
market or nonmarket losses.
The importance of indirect losses are better understood while considering a
case a disaster scenario with different reconstruction paces. A scenario in
which the reconstruction is inefficient and takes years will have much larger
welfare impacts(for the same amount of direct losses) than the same
scenario with few months reconstruction period.

Definition and assessment purpose

Sometimes indirect losses can have negative cost components which are the
gains from reconstruction procedure . these gains can be realized in the
affected region eg construction sector. Different economic agents are
interested in different types of cost. Insurers are mainly interested in
consequences that can be insured. This encompasses mainly the cost of
damages to insurable assets. Eg: damaged houses or factories and short
term business interruption caused by the disaster. Eg: impossibility to
produce until electricity is restored. Affected households are also concerned
about their income as well as their assets. Their incomes can be reduced due
to business interrruptions or by the loss of jobs and about their ability to
consume goods and services.

Local authories, government and international institutions will be interested

in a larger aspect . Their interest will be to manage the recovery and

reconstruction period and to scale the necessary amount of international

aid,they need the information on aggregated impact on economic
production, on unemployment and jobs, on impact of inequality and poverty ,
on local business market shares, on commercial balance , on collective taxes
etc . They also need to assess whether the investment in prevention
measures are desirable, they need the broadest possible assessment of the
total disaster cost of population i.e an estimate of welfare losses.

Estimating the value of lost housing service should be done using higher
coast instead of pre disaster one. Which can lead to a significant increase in
the assessed disaster cost. It is difficult to predict the change in prices
caused by a disaster, making loss assessments more complicated.
The welfare impact of a lost production cannot be estimated as the product
of lost produced quantity and pre disaster prices. Providing an unbiased
estimate requires an assessment of disaster impact on prices and taking into
account rationing. Some cases, after a disaster there is post disaster price
inflation (demand surge) which can have positive consequences.This inflation
helps attract skilled works where they are most needed and creates an
incentive for all workers to work longer hours, therefore compensating for
damaged assets and accelerating reconstruction.

Length of the reconstruction phase

Time is an important factor to be considered in flood loss estimates. There is
a large difference in losing house for one day and losing house for one year.
In the former , the total loss is the reconstruction value i.e. the direct loss
and in the later the total cost is he reconstruction value i.e the direct cost
plus the value of one year of housing services i.e. the output loss. The longer
the reconstruction period, the larger the total cost.

The reconstruction phase and the economic recovery pace will ultimately
determine the final cost of the natural diasters. The pace of the

reconstruction phase is linked to financial constraints and technical

constraints. In spite of an increase in demand after disaster in the
construction sector, there are strong constraints on reconstructions. Many
households cannot find workers to carry out the reconstruction work.

Output gains and losses from non affected capital

Water, electricity, gas and transportation are the most crucial sector and
their production interruption can have immediate consequences in the entire
economic system. In past cases, studies have shown that indirect
consequences of utility services had larger consequences than direct assess
losses, both on households and businesses.

The stimulus effect of diasters

Diasters lead to a reduction of production capacity,but it also increases the
demand for reconstruction sector and goods. The reconstruction acts as a
stimulus in theory. As any stimulus , its consequences depend on the pre
exisiting econmic condictions or the phases of business cycles. If the
cocnomy is og high growth, in which all resources are fully used, the net
effect of the stimulus on the economy will be negative throufg diverted
resources,production capacity scarity and accelerated inflation. If the prediaster economy is depressed, the stimulus can yield benefits to the
economy by mobilizing idle capcities.

The productivity effect

When a disaster occurs, it can foster a more rapid turnover of capital which
could yield positive out comes through more rapid embodiment of new
technologies. This effect is referred to as productivity effect.The destroyed
capital can be replaced using most recent technologies, which have higher
productivities. For example: a household, the reconstruction of the houses
with better insulation technologies and better heating systems, allowing for
energy conservation and savings. In a company, it maybe replacement of an
old production machine with a new improved technology.
Therefore capital losses can be compensated by higher productivity of
economy after the event aftermath with associated welfare benefits that
could compensate for the disaster consequences. This process can increase

the pace of technological change and accelerate economic growth and could
therefore represent a positive consequences of the disasters.
Poverty traps
It is sometimes crucial to take into account the possibility of natural diasters
increasing poverty.
Poverty traps at micro level i.e (household levels) could even lead to macro
level poverty traps , in which the entire region could be stuck. Poor regions
have limited capacity to rebuild itself after diasters, if they are regularly
affected by diasters.

Assessment methodologies
Data collection of past events
The first line of assessment consist of data collection on past events. This
approach considers a single event in a single location.
The ECLAC methodology (UN ECLAC, 2003) assesses direct indirect and seco
ndary effects of single events by a collection of data and information
of various types (physical, monetary, and expert judgment) in each
sector. Indirect costs are thus estimated through collection of
information from economic agents, governments and experts, taking in
consideration particular aspects such as transport disturbances cost,
loss of opportunities etc. Of course, the aggregation of data from very
different sources should be done
with care to avoid gaps and double counting.

Loss Estimation model assessment

A.Rose(2004) ,Hallegatte et al(2010) summaries various hazard loss
estimation methodologies undertaken . Loss estimation is used both to
evaluate losses after they have taken place and to predict potential losses.
Primary data technique is suited for the former and simulation techniques
are suited for the latter. There are three comprehensive analytical

approaches that examines the validation of economic loss estimation, Input

Output models, Computable general equilibrium models and Econometric
models.
The former two approaches models are typically constructed by applying
various data reduction or down scaling techniques to secondary data
because of the prohibitive expense of constructing them from primary data.
Econometric models are based on statistics and do not investigate a single
event. They focus on a series of events and investigate the mean indirect
cost of these events like average impact on long term economic growth.

JRC Recording Diaster losses

JRC Scienticfic and policy reports on recording Disaster losses present the
loss estimate databases and their comparisons. Trends in loss data allows
one to measure progress in path towards resilience. No measure better than
loss over time can provide objective understanding of the path towards
resilience. It is often said that what is not measured cannot be managed.
International loss database EM-DAT have the credit to have initiated the
process to maintain long term trends of essential statistics i.e. following the
trends of human losses. Many databases are avaible and maintained by
insurance companies and UN and national bodies.
Loss accounting is now in demand at all levels from national to European to
international. Due to diversity of purposes and data collection procedure,
available databases cannot be combined

Disaster loss databases systematically account for human, physical and

economic losses. Human losses typically include causalities, injured and
displaced persons as results of the disaster. The direct physical damage to
building and civil works are quantified by engineers and typically translate by
economist into monetary loss.
Most loss assessment in post disaster events consider direct economic losses
that relate to physical damage assessment. A physical Damage assessment
is used by governments and donors to address emergency and
reconstruction needs and to settle insurance claims.

Loss data are generated through systematic loss accounting based on predefined methodologies. Each loss databases relies on a given procedure. A

widely used methodology to address international catastrophes is a Damage

and Loss Assessment (DALA) developed by the UN Economic Commission for
Latin America (ECLAC) in 1970s. It provides a standardized tool for monetary
evaluation of disaster damage (in physical assests,capital stocks and
material goods) and losses (inflow of goods and services,income,costs) that
rise due to temporary absence of the destroyed asset. Another well-known
methodology is developed by Emegency Events database (EM-DAT). It has a
scientific approach that focus more on human loss indicators. They have very
strict data entry procedures. A disaster event is only recorded if atleast two
sources are reporting it in terms of the no. of people killed or affected.

A third aspect of accounting losses is highlighted by practices adopted by

insurance companies e.g. Munich Re and Swiss Re . They provide detailed
economic losses both insured and uninsured attributable to the event. The
entry criteria are adjusted to address disasters causing business
interruptions and physical damage in the first place. Therefore they can be a
valuable source for estimates of indirect losses.

Theoretical Models of loss databases

The Loss databases are established to track the expenditures ensuring from
disasters and to plan disaster reduction strategies that may decrease the
human, physical and economic losses in the future.
Local authorities benefit from detailed assessment for managing disaster risk
while national authorities and global institutions needs aggregate statistics
for optimizing disaster risk policies. In the absence of an agreed standards,
each institution defines its own methodology and data structure and
resulting loss data is incompatible and cannot be compared or aggregated.
JRC Report presents a conceptual model that has three application areas that
require information on losses. The loss data are used for loss accounting, for
forensic analysis of disasters and for disaster risk modelling.
1. Disaster Loss Accounting
Loss accounting is the principal motivation for recording the impact of
hazard and aims in documenting the trends. It allows spatial
comparison. The information will have to be available at different
levels. Decision makers at local level ,at subnational level, national
level for fund allocation for addressing disaster reduction and for

mitigation and at the international level for international financial and

humanitarian aid.

2. Disaster forensics
Disaster forensics analyses the unfolding of a disaster and identifies its
causes. From the lessons learned, experts and decision makers may
guide the reconstruction process and they quantify risk and implement
risk reduction and mitigation measure for areas with similar
characteristics and risk.In Europe , most large diasters are followed by
detailed evaluation and in particular for using the solidarity fund , a
structured assessment is required. Recent earthquake and flood events
in Europe has triggered forensic studies. The emphasis in disaster
forensics is to divide and assess direct and indirect losses per sector as
well as breakdown by who bears the loss.

3. Diaster Risk Modelling

Risk modelling aims to improve risk assessments and forecast
methods. Loss data are used to infer vulnerabilities and to identify
sections for disaster risk reduction and mitigation measures.

Figure: Conceptual model of application areas for loss data (JRC 2013)
The three areas differ in scale (precision) and scope (coverage)
requirements. Disasters come in different sizes. The public and policy
makers are mostly informed of mass disasters as the international
media covers it. The comprehensiveness of a disaster loss database
will depend on the cut off threshold for entering events. The recording
on losses can occur at very detailed level or more generally at coarser
geographical units. Five geographical levels are considered such as
asset, municipality, regional, national and global level. The
geographical level is useful to identify the geographical extent of the
disaster.
The measurement of damages performed at building level is typically
down for insurance claims. Information may be aggregated to
municipality level and regional or national level. Its precision is still at
asset level and the information is simply aggregated. Loss
measurements maybe also carried out at coarser spatial scales. For
example estimates at municipality level, regional or national level. The
link between scale and scope is very important. The information can be
collected at asset levels and be very precise. The data can then be

aggregated at next geographical level (i.e. municipality) and further in

at regional and national level. The ideal database has national scope
and local scope. In reality, loss data are seldom collected at the level of
assets e.g. damage level and reconstruction cost. Most of the time the
data are estimated based on rapid surveys by professionals that
provide estimates at municipality levels.
Disaster Loss databases
There is a distinction in approach, purpose, scale and scope between
global databases such as EM-DAT, NatCatSERVICE, Sigma CatNet and
national databases e.g. DesInventar. International loss databases are
established by different groups and often have different purpose of
reporting. They are typically multi hazard global datasets. Some are
focusing on humanitarian reporting while others focus on economic
loss reporting.
The main Databases are
EM-DAT (CRED): a global database at national resolution with
public access.
NatCatSERVICE (Munich RE): a global database at national
resolution with no public access
Sigma CatNet Service(Swiss RE): a global database at national
resolution with no public access
DesInventar:a national based accounting system
EM-DAT is the first public available worldwide database on disasters. Its
widely cited in policy documents and research analyses as in Global
Assessment Report (GAR) 2011.It is maintained by CRED (Center of Research
on the Epidemiology of disasters at Louvain University in Belgium with the
initial support of US Aid and the world Health Organization. The databases
entry criteria incudes 10 or more people are reported killed, 100 or more
people are reported affected, declaration of state of emergency or call for
international assistance. Its strength are in its comprehensiveness and
consistency over the years and its weaknesses are the lack of spatial
reference, the relatively high threshold and data collection approach based
on desk research.
Munich RE and Swiss RE are the two largest insurers in the world. They
maintain loss database to offer comprehensive information,tools and
services in risk management and rearch t its branche offices and clients. The

main interest lies in theacurate number of material loss. NatCatService and

Sigma CatNet Service provie access of data to clients only.
EM DAT data together with NatCat Services and Sigma CatNet are often used
to discuss losses trends. The three contain overall same information such as
economic losses,fatalities ,numbers injured and affected,damage to
infrastructure and buildings. The focus of EM-DAT is primarily on
humanitarian aspects whereas the two reinsures concentrate more on
accurately reflectingthe matrial losses/ Since the three databases are
different and conceived and developed for different puposes,and clients, the
data cannot be compared. All three databases do not have a standardized
definitions.
DesInventar is a free open source software web based disaster information
management system. It is setup in 1994 by the network of social studies in
the prevention of diasters in latin America ( LA RED) and is maintained and
updated by corporation observatorio sismologico del sur occidente (OSSO). It
also has a methodology of recording and collecting loss data of future
events. It enables the inventory of high resolution level where information
corresponds to municipality or similar correspondent local territorial unit
collected with the usage of record cards. Data fields recorded covers human
loss , physical damages and economic loss. It also includes events tha may
have has any effect on life ,properties or infrastructure with no limit in size.

How to deal properly with a natural catastrophe database-analysis

of flood losses
W.kron et al(2012)

In order to include a disaster in a database and render different occurrences

comparable, its details have to be condensed into set of descriptive terms
and figures, which could be called meta-data. There comprise fatalities,
number of people injured, homeless and affected, material damage to
buildings and infrastructure, monetary losses and key concepts describing
certain features. These figures constitutes what we call natural catastrophe
loss data or in short nat cat loss data. With the huge amount of data on nat
cat losses, its vital to ensure that the data has the best possible quality.
The operators of three global loss databases cover the entire range of
natural hazards. They differeniate between six hazard families, each
consisting of various events types.
Geophysical and geological events (earthquake, volcanic eruption,
tsunami, subsidence due to geological eruption etc.)
Meteorological events(tropical cyclone,snow storm ,tornado)
Hydrological events (general flood, flash flood, storm surge, glacial-lake
outburst flood,
avalanche, landslide caused by rainfall)
Climatological events (heatwave, drought, wildfire, cold wave etc.)
Biological Events ( e.g. locust infestation, plague of vermin, epidemic
plant diseases)
Extra-terrestrial events (asteroid impact, solar storm)
Data regarding the events
Diaster databases are now expected to provide data in greater quantities
and more granular form. A full NatCatSERVICE entry has entry record of 200
attributes. The curical paramets for statictal analyses are 1) fatalies 2)
overall losses 3)insured losses.

Sources of information
The sources of information are grouped into six cateogories
Insurance industry
Science and research
UN,EU
administrations,governmental
oragnisations
Meterological ,geological etc services
News agencies
Other sources

and

non

governmental

For quality assurance purposes, every report is validated, evaluated, cross

checked with other sources and made to indicate its credibility.
NatCatSERVICE uses 200 sources identified as reliable for particular regions
and or types of event. Despite first class sources, the analysis process can be
fraught with problems. Typical challenges include erroneous reports, using
currency conversion factors, double counting of casualties and in consistent
use of terms.
The Task of categorizing natural hazard events is not a simple one.
The task of categorizing the natural hazard event is complicated when multiperil events occur. A convective storm can be accompanied by gusts, hail,
torrential rain that causes flash floods. An earthquake can trigger a tsunami
or landslides or may cause fire etc. Most natural events manifest in itself in
more than just one way. It can have primary, secondary and even tertiary
effects.
Disaster events are entered into the database according to triggering natural
hazard (primary hazard) event or main cause of loss. Hence a tsunami
triggered by an earthquake is listed in the database as geophysical
event/earthquake/tsunami. This permits analyses on multi thematic levels.
In such cases classification is clear and easy. In the case of flash floods that
is created by severe convective storm also featuring hail, wind gust etc. is
classified as meteorological event / flood / flash flood.
When loss numbers are attributed to various components of a multiple peril
event, the problem becomes more acute. It is rarely possible to split the
overall loss into flood losses and wind storm losses. Recording such items in
the database can result in different discrepancies.
In the case of Multi-peril events, one overall figure of combined loss is given.
Since NatCAtSERVICE database was primarily for insurance purposes, the
combined events tend to to produce much larger insured losses than flood.
All losses from convective storms, tropical storms and winter storm are
classified as storm unless the wind storm losses are negligible compare to
other losses. Except for an exception, if a vast majority of the losses from a
convective event are attributable to water, the event is classified as flood.
Storm losses are not categorized under flood statistics but under storm
statistics (meteorological events).The proportions accounted for by storm,
flood and other losses are seldom known in the case of complex events.
Therefore it is difficult to obtain reliably accurate overall loss figures. A
person handling these data for mathematical and statistical procedures have
to be aware of the peculiarities in the database.

It is important to clearly define what constitutes a loss event in temporal and

spatial terms. It is easy to distinguish loss events in the case of earthquake
and windstorms. The earthquakes time of occurrence and epicenter is
precisely known and losses occur instantaneously can be directly related to
the natural event. In the case of floods, the attribution is often much more
difficult as their occurrence and intensity also depend on weather conditions
prior to the event. Extreme rainfall may not trigger a basin wide flood if it
encountered a dried up catchment. However it may set the stage for
subsequent disaster, given even moderate intense precipitation, if the region
is saturated and has no retention capacity. Flood losses will occur
everywhere including locations where the first event has already caused
losses. From hydrogeological point of view, both events are seen from the
same context. The insurance industry has to address the issue of selecting it
has one loss event or two. In the case of two events, the primary insurer has
to bear the retention twice and in the case of one event, the aggregate loss
will exceed limit. This shows that even if all the loss figures are correct, we
cannot produce a completely objective statistical analysis. There is always
partly subjective aspects involved. This suggest the need to openly state
how the data are processed, explaining the background to the decisions that
re taken and point out the problems involved and specify the assumptions
made. This will help the statistical analyses be to more transparent and can
be seen in their proper context.

Reporting Errors
Reporting errors mostly occur unintentionally. The errors may arise from
number of sources, the most prominent faulty translations and conversion of
currencies and units. Usage of descriptive words may also lead to wrong
conclusions. The term victims is used by some means deaths by others
means those affected. Similarly affected can mean people actually effected
by the damage and are suffering or it can also mean people living in the area
where the event took place.

Estimation of losses in database

In NatCatSERVICE database, the financial loss is the most important
parameter. It is subdivided into incurred losses and overall losses. The
figures for the insured losses are relatively more reliable because they reflect
the claims actually paid by the insurance companies.

Munich Re(2001) defines the three classes of losses in the following way
Direct Losses are immediately visible and countable (loss of homes,
household property, schools, vehicles, machinery, livestock etc.)They are
usually calculated on the basis of replacement and repair costs. Problems
arise when it comes to estimating the value of historical quarters and
cultural heritage that have been destroyed. Another aspect is that damaged
structures e.g. dykes are upgraded while being repaired or replaced to
higher safety, and hence the value level. While actual loss quantities should
refer to damaged items, the figures in fact usually refer to costs.

Indirect Losses include among others, higher transport costs due to

infrastructure damage, loss of jobs and loss of rental income. Two types of
incurred direct loss are business interruptions,

Consequential losses (secondary costs) apply to the economic impact of a

natural disaster, for instance in the form of reduced tax revenues, lower
economic output, reduced GDP or a weaker currency.

How overall losses are estimated in the database

The amounts entered as overall losses in the NatCatSERVICE database
include only direct losses. The indirect and consequential loss are not taken
into account. About third of the entries made in NAtCatSERVICE are based on
official sources such as governments and statistical and financial authorities.
If there is no official information available, the overall losses are estimated
on the basis of insurance claims and other available loss indicators.
The estimation of total losses on the basis of insured losses is usually
reasonably efficient. The percentage of the insured are known for the
different perils and countries is normally known, the overall losses can be
extrapolated from the insured losses. The greater the insurance penetration,
the more accurate the extrapolation results .
If no know insured loss figures are avaiable, the overall loss is estimated on
the basis of other parameters. These include the type of natural disaster and
its duration, the region affected (urban or rural),population density, level of
prosperity, properties damages, infrastructure, utility and other supplies ,
number of injured, homeless and fatalities. All available data are plotted in a

matrix and weighed. The events are then assigned to a catastrophe category.
Comparable disaster in the region for which detailed and well reference
overall loss data are available are additionally filtered with the aid of
approximation process. The events are clustered and realistic values
obtained for individual units (e.g. average value of a residential building)

Downton, Pielke(2004) evaluate the accuracy of historical flood estimates

from two federal agencies.The comparison of early damage estimates with
actual expenditures in a California flood disaster reveals large erros in some
estimates for indivuial counties, but no statistically significant tendency to
underestimate or overestimate. The comparisons revealed that damage
estimates for small events often are extremely inaccurate. And estimates
aggregated over large areas or long time periods appear to be reasonably
reliable.
The reliability of the loss estimates can be studied by evaluation of their
accuracy and completeness. Assessment of accuracy requires comparison of
estimate with actual costs, which often are not know until long after a flood
event.
In the aftermath of a natural disaster, damage information are assembled in
stages according to guidelines established by FEMA(Federal Emergency
Management Agency) in USA.

1. Intial Damage Estimate (IDE) recorded shortly after the disaster has
occurred, the local officials provide estimates of physical damage
based on early reports and descriptions, without necessarily visiting
the damage sites. At this time, some area may be in accessible and
there is little accurate information
2. Preliminary Damage Assessment (PDA)- Several days later, a team
including local,state, and FEMA officals visits the dmage sites. They do
a windshield estimate, perhaps viewing the sites from a car window
or walking around. The PDA is more accurae than IDE because by this
time local officals have a better idea of the damage level and state or
FEMA officals can eliminate ineligible estimates. The PDA estimates are
used t decide wheather federal assiatance is needed. If so, they are
submitted to FEMA as a part of giverners request for a presidential
disaster declaration
3. Damage Survey Report(DSR)-Once the president has issured a disaster
declartio, applicants submit request for public assiatnce with detailes

worksheets estimating the cost of repairs. The DSR is donw to obligate

deferral and state disaster assistance funds.
4. Actual Cost- When all projects are complected , te DSR are closed and
final cost is totaled. For lrge diasters closure might not occure until 4-5
years after the disaster event.

Contribution of insurance to cost assessment of flood damage to residential

buildings
There are several approaches economic damage assessment. Globally t,
these can be differeniatated into ex-ante assessments and ex-post
assessments. Ex-ante assessments i.e prior-event aim to evaluate potential
economic losses for scenarios having probable hazard characteristics. Expost assessments are carried out in the aftermath of the disaster for
emergency management or the coordination of early recovery issues or later,
for feeback on experience concering damage processes and costs
(APFM,2007).Ex ante data assessments models are generally calibrated with
damage data from ex-post assessments.
Ex-ante damage assessments purposes , a standard approach calls on
damage functions, also refereed to as stage-damage curves or fragility
curves. These functions definie the causal relationship between the intensity
of hazard and parameters and a level of damage or loss for each class of
assers. They can be expressed in terms of absolute values of estimated costs
or in relative damage i.e. percent of loss of the assets initial value ,provided
this value is know.
For flood damage,modelling , the most common hazard parameter used is water depth
but some studies have investigated other parameters such as flood duration, flow
velocity and non physical(i.e. chemical or biological)parameters.

Another source of information on damage is the data gathered by insurance

companies for damage compensation purposes. However insurers data are
mostly inaccessible due to confidentiality issues. This explains why fewer
studies are conducted to develop damage functions from insurance data.
Insurance data by definition addresses only tangible and mainly direct
damages as intangible and most of the indirect damages are not insure.

Estimation of urban structural flood damages: the case study of

Palermo
(Oliveri,Santoro(2000)

Estimation of flood damage is a fundamental step in the economic analysis of a flood

control project. The frequency damage functions derived from the hydrologic, hydraulic
and damage relationships are one of the fundamental pieces of information upon which
expenditure decisions are based.

Flood damage evaluation

When a single flood is studied, the flood damage estimation in a fixed area
should be carried out using information and data regarding historical flood
damages in areas with similar social and economics characteristics. Such
information are collected over the years but maybe rarely available. In such
cases, a different approach is taken, based on theoretical considerations, the
creation of relationships between the food damage and the occurrence
frequency of the event from which the damage originates. The flood damage
is affected by climate, economic characteristics and land use of the flooded
area: Frequency damage curves can be derived combining hydrological and
hydraulic relationships with physical and socio economic information. The
area under the damaged frequency curve is referred to as the expected
annual damage, and globally takes into account the frequency of all possible
flood events and the consequent damage.(Johnson .1985)
A frequency damage relationship can be established under the simplifying
hypothesis that the damage return period is the same for the event from
which the damage arises: the flood damage may be evaluated under the
assumption that, for given social and economic conditions, damage function
of water depth.
Flood damage is actually affected not only by water depth but also by
different factors such as the duration of flooding, the velocity of the flood
waters and their sediment load, the availability of a warning system and the
local increase if costs due to the occurrence of the flood event. These
parameters are mostly not taken into consideration

In this paper, Damage is calculated as a percentage, depending on the water

depth of the total value of property .Damage estimations should be
developed for the characteristics buildings and furnishing practices of each
study area.
An overview of the methodology followed by E.Oliberi,M.Santoro for the
estimation of flood damage is as follows

As Urban flood prone area ,whose surface is A is considered. It is assumed

that measurement or estimates are avaiable for the maximum water depth
that occurred duing a flood event of given occurrence frequency, so the
protion Aij of A which is inundated with water depth falling within the range
[hi,hj] is known. Let X be the total value of the properties within A , the
property value per unit area x-X/A can be evaluated. If the percent damage
pij which pccured due to the water depths falling within the range [hi.hj] is
known and the total flood damage D is expressed as D=x Aij Pij (1)
By relating damage estimated by equation (1) , to the retuen period of the
flood event which has generated the water depth distribution ,an empirical
relationship can be obtained between damage and its occurrence probability.
The Flow chart in the figure synthesises the adopted methodology which
requires different kinds of information and data:

Hydrological-Hydraulic data such as the rainfall or runoff data, the percentage of

impervious area and their hydrologic-hydraulic of impervious area and other hydrologichydraulic characteristics of the catchment. These are needed in order to evaluate the total
extent of flooded surface and to identify the spatial distribution of inundation depths that

the partial surfaces Aij can be evaluated.

Physical data, represented by the morphological and topographic data , the land use , the
building types existing in the zone and the extent of each type in terms of percentage of
the overall area, number of storeys , the finishing touch, availability of basement level,
the maintenance of the structure and the house content data collection. The physical
characteristics of the analyzed area are needed in the hydrologic-hydraulic procedures for

flooded are delimitation as well as in the economic analyses.

Economic data, that is the social and economic conditions of the analyzed area, the
economics conditions of the analyzed area, the economic aspect which is deemed more
suitable for the resolution of the estimation query. Economic investigation must be
oriented to estimate well found unit value if x of a property and to identify sufficiently
reliable depth percent damage (pij) relationships.

Figure

Flowchart explaining the development of empirical frequency-damage

relationship by means of detailed local studies( E.Oliveri,M.Santoro2000 )

Economic Analyses
A large number of intrinsic and extrinsic elements influence the estimated
value of an estate: the structure size, the quality of the construction
materials, the finishing touch, the structure age, its monumental or artistic
signals, the use of special construction technique , healthiness and
appearance of the zone where the structure lies, the value of an estate
depends on the so called externalities such as the land resources and its
locational advantages, the efficiency of public services ( i.e. availability of
public transport facilities),the distance from commercial, recreational or
health facilities, the surrounding landscape. In estimating the flood damages,
one is interested in the lost values. Damage estimates are only affected by
some on the mentioned factors. Damage can be defined as the amount of
property value lost because of a flood event. So estimation of a structures
value is therefore an essential step in the percent damage methodology.
Total value of properties
When estimating the value of an estate, several economic aspects can be
considered: the market value, the replacement value and the
complementary value. (Michieli,1993). Estimates vary with time and also
according to the reason by which the estimation is made, that is the
economics aspect which is deemed more suitable for the resolution of the
estimation query.
Replacement value of a structure is considered as the appropriate economic
aspect because if only takes into account those components of total
structure value that actually influence the damage. The replacement value
can be defined as the total cost for replacing the structure with another one
like utility having the same size and use as the existing one.
Replacement Value can be estimated by two traditional approaches,
1) Direct or synthetic methodology based on statistical analyses of
historical prices is usually employed to obtain rough estimates.
2) Analytical methodology adopted consists of computing the cost of each
component category of a structure on the basis of unit cost. Summing
the costs of various components categories leads to the total
construction cost.
The percent-Damage approach defines the flood damage as a percentage of
the total value of the damaged property, depending on the water depth.
When flooding occurs, and a structure is inundated, not all its value is lost,
because water damages only some components categories of a building. In
most cases the flood damage assessments is carried out using generalized
depth-percent damage relationships, obtained for very large areas. Damage

estimation should be developed for the characteristic building and furnishing

practices of each study area. The analysis presented in the present paper
deals with very small water shed, carrying out detailed local studies.
The accuracy of the methodology is limited by the various simplifying
hypotheses under which it has been developed, by the hydrologic-hydraulic
model approximation by the precision of the economic estimations.
Nevertheless it can be considered as a quick and reliable toll for general or
detailed local studies in small and strongly urbanized basins having
hydrologic ad socio-economic features similar to the analyzed zone.
The damage has been supposed to begin when the water reaches a depth of
0.25 m, depth increments by steps of 0.25 m have been considered. For each
water depth, all component categories damageable by water (internal and
external plaster, the fixtures, the paving titles, the floors and part of the
electric appliances) have been considered, computing the overall
replacement costs. This cost has been increased to include the expenses for
dismantling the damaged components before the restoration of the new
ones, together with the content restoration expenses. For each water depth,
the percentages have been calculated dividing the overall replacement cost
by the estimated total replacement value V of the building (structure plus
contents).

Flood Depth-Damage Functions for Built Environment

A.Pistrika et.al

The direct flood damage estimation to building structures is commonly accomplished by

applying the method of depth-damage functions . Empirical relationship are

developed between recorded flood depth and the estimated damage to

buildings after a flood event. The techniques for estabilishing depth-damage
functions in urban areas are not standardized (Appelbaum 1985) . The
uncertainites involved when applying a site specific depth-damage function
to another region is till under research.
Actions of recording the maximum flood depths
and identifying affected components of building structures took place in the
field immediately after the flood event by groups of specialized engineers.
The aim of the field survey was the estimate the actual level of damage per
flood affected building and based on these estimates compensate the flood
victims ( ex post damage estimation ) within the study area.
A general approach in damage estimation

The estimation od direct flood damage to buildings involves two related

steps (Postrika and Jonkman ,2009)

First step is the analysis of the structural damafe caused by the flood
effects. This is determined by the flood actions (or loads) and the
building resisteance (kelman and spencer 2004)
Economic estimation of the physical damage percentage, insight in
both the pre diaster market value and the replacement cost of each
building is required.

The estimation of direct damage to buildings is often accomplished by

applying the method of depth-damage functions that related flood
characteristics directly to the economics value of the damage without
investigating the physical mechanisms that cause the structural damage.
The flood characteristics used are in most cases the results of food
simulations using the probability distribution of annual peal discharges
together with the stage discharge curves.
Depth- Damage functions can be based on actual damage data from
historical floods. By definition, depth-damage functions include the water
depth as the main determinant of direct damage. However, many more
factors such as flow velocity,duration of loading, sediment load,
contamination , the existence of a flood warning system and the
effectiveness of emergency response during a flood event. May influence
the severity and the extent of flood damage to buildings. Flood damage
models rarely include all these factors.
Types of Depth-Damage Functions
According to the kind of information used in developing depth-developing
functions,two main types of such functions can be distinguished:

Empirical Functions which use damage data collected after the flood
events
Synthetic functions, which employ theoretical damage data collected
via inventories or interviews and are based on hypothetical analyses
and expert judgements.

Actual damage information is more accurate than the subjective what if

damage analysis and hence actual damage data better reflect variability
within one category of building use (Merz. et al. 2004)
Detailed Damage surveys in the field after a flood event are uncommon since
they require much effort and time per unit of area to carry them out.
Moreover, the transferability of functions in time and space is in question due

to difference in flood experience, warning time and building type, and

contents subject to flood damage. On the contrary, the transferability and
comparability of the damage estimates is string advantage of synthetic
functions (Smith 1994)
The depth-damage functions are discerned between Relative and absolute
ones.
Relative functions- use ratios of the absolute monetary amounts of damage
to the value of assets i.ie they express the flood damage as a percentage of
the total replacement value of a flood affected property.
Absolute damage functions employ the absolute monetary amounts of
damage per element at risk and this, their period of validity is short
Given that damage data scarcity is almost always the case with flood
damage estimation studies, relative damage functions are naturally the first
choice in such studies.
Transferability of depth-damage functions to sites that those where these
have been developed, it is preferable to use other site specific functions as
reference functions after careful examination of similarities and difference in
their determining factors (i.ie., construction material of buildings,
characteristics of data and the elements at risk, methods for constructing
functions , etc.) (A.Pistrika et.al. 2014)

Tools to find the repair cost of a residential individual building

after Flooding
N.Walliman et. Al (2013)