Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
LiveWebcastHostedBy:
JeffreyGundlach
ChiefExecutiveOfficer
DoubleLine Capital
January10,2017
2016YearInReview:MSCIACWI+8.48%
Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyasofJanuary3,2017
BRL=Brazil,BOJ=BankofJapan,ECB=EuropeanCentralBank,DOJ=DepartmentofU.S.Justice,DB=Deutche Bank,RMB=ChineseRenminbi.
MSCIACWIIndexisMorganStanleyCapitalInternationalcaptureslargeandmidcaprepresentationacross23DevelopedMarkets (DM)and23EmergingMarkets(EM).Youcannotinvest
directlyinanindex.
11017JustMarkets2
Equity2016PerformanceTotalReturnUSD
Asof12/31/16
DevelopedMarketsEquityPerformance
(2016TotalReturnUSD)
30%
24.7%
25%
21.3%
20%
15%
16.5%
12.0%
11.6%
9.0%
10%
5.2%
4.8%
5%
1.0%
4.2%
2.5%
1.0%
0%
0.6%
5%
1.2%
6.6%
10%
10.3%
15%
EmergingMarketsEquityPerformance
(2016TotalReturnUSD)
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
69.1%
59.5%
24.8%
26.9%
18.1%
19.4%
17.4%
11.4%
1.6%
10.1%
29.9%
20.6%
3.0%
1.4%
4.0%
5.2%
2.8%
7.8%
16.5%
Source:Bloomberg;DoubleLine
Pleaseseeappendixforindexdefinitions.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
11017JustMarkets3
2016ChangeinGlobal10yBondYields
Asof12/31/16
2016ChangeinGlobal10yBondYields(BPS)
116
100
69 65
17 33
22
20
20 5
0
100
12 21 13
72
200
30 42 40
39
64
118
53
12
77
87
125
300
400
500
511
600
Source:Bloomberg;DoubleLine
Bps=basispoints
11017JustMarkets4
GlobalEconomy
11017JustMarkets5
U.S.DollarIndexSpot(DXY)
December31,2007throughJanuary9,2017
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapitalLP
DXY=DXYistheUSDollarIndex(USDX)indicatesthegeneralvalueoftheUSdollar.AverageexchangeratesbetweentheUSdollarandsixmajorworldcurrencies.Aninvestmentcannotbe
madedirectlyinanindex.
11017JustMarkets6
U.S.DollarIndexSpot (DXY)LongTerm
January31,1967throughJanuary9,2017
Source:BloombergFinancialServices
DXY=DXYistheUSDollarIndex(USDX)indicatesthegeneralvalueoftheUSdollar.AverageexchangeratesbetweentheUSdollarandsixmajorworldcurrencies.Aninvestmentcannotbe
11017JustMarkets7
madedirectlyinanindex.
U.S.10yearInflationSwapandU.S.Dollar(DXY)
December15,2006toJanuary9,2017
Source:BloombergFinancialServices
DXY=DXYistheUSDollarIndex(USDX)indicatesthegeneralvalueoftheUSdollar.AverageexchangeratesbetweentheUSdollarandsixmajorworldcurrencies.Aninvestment
cannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.
11017JustMarkets8
PerformanceofWorldStockMarketsSincethe
GlobalFinancialCrisisMarch9,2009toDecember30,2016
Source:AdvisorPerspectives.
Pleaseseeappendixforindexdefinitions.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
11017JustMarkets9
BigPictureU.S.
11017JustMarkets10
ChildrenEarningMorethanTheirParents
Note:bydecadeofbirth
Source:http://www.equalityofopportunity.org/ TheEqualityofOpportunityProject(outofStanfordandHarvard)
11017JustMarkets11
U.S.TotalDebt
Source:NewYorkFed,Equifax
HE=HomeEquityRevolvingloans
11017JustMarkets12
U.S.HouseholdDebtServiceRatio
January1,1980toJune30,2016
Source:CalculatedRisk,http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/10/fedq2householddebtserviceratio.html
DSR=DebtServiceRatio
11017JustMarkets13
U.S.PublicDebt
January1,1900Projectedthrough2040
Source:TheHeritageFoundation
11017JustMarkets14
U.S.PublicDebt
January1,1791Projectedthrough2040
GNP=GrossNationallProductisabroadmeasureofanationstotaleconomicactivity.GDPI=GrossDomesticProductisthebroadestmeasureofanationstotaleconomicactivity.
11017JustMarkets15
U.S.GovernmentSpendingvs.Revenue
January1,1965Projectedthrough2025
Source:TheHeritageFoundation
GDP=GrossDomesticProductisthebroadestmeasureofanationstotaleconomicactivity.
11017JustMarkets16
U.S.FederalBudget
January1,1962Projectedthrough2020
Source:TheHeritageFoundation
11017JustMarkets17
Presidents&Recessions
January1960throughNovember30,2016
Source:MorganCreek
11017JustMarkets18
U.S.ConferenceBoardLeadingEconomicIndicator
January3,1987toJanuary3,2017
Source:Bloomberg,DoubleLine
11017JustMarkets19
CEOConfidence
December16,2002toDecember16,2016
Source:Bloomberg,DoubleLine
11017JustMarkets20
ConsumerConfidence
December1,1986toJanuary3,2017
Source:Bloomberg,DoubleLine
11017JustMarkets21
U.S.UnemploymentRatevs.12moSimpleMoving
Average January1,1948toDecember31,2016
2.5
10
Recessions
Spread(RHS)
U3
2016
2014
2013
2011
2009
2008
2006
2004
2003
2001
1999
1998
1996
1994
1993
1991
1989
1988
1986
1984
1983
1981
1979
1978
1976
1974
1973
2
1971
2
1969
1.5
1968
1966
1964
1963
0.5
1961
1959
1958
1956
0.5
1954
1953
1951
1949
1.5
1948
U3less12momov.avg.spread
11
U3Rate%
U3UnemploymentRateand12monthMovingAvg.(withSpread)
12monthmov.avg.
Source:Bloomberg;DoubleLine
U3istheofficialunemploymentratepertheILOdefinitionoccurswhenpeoplearewithoutjobsandtheyhaveactivelylooked forworkwithinthepastfourweeks. RHS=righthandside.
11017JustMarkets22
AtlantaFedGDPNow
January5,2012toJanuary3,2017
Source:Bloomberg;DoubleLine
GDP=GrossDomesticProductmeasurestheamountofgoodsandservicesproducedwithinagivencountry.
11017JustMarkets23
ISMManufacturingandServicesPMI
Source:Bloomberg
ISMManufacturingPMI=PurchasingManagersindexisanindicatoroftheeconomichealthofthemanufacturingsector.SA=SeasonallyAdjusted
11017JustMarkets24
Inflation
11017JustMarkets25
CommodityPrices
January9,1997toJanuary9,2017
Source:Bloomberg
BCOMIndex=BloombergCommodityIndexiscalculatedonanexcessreturnbasisandreflectscommodityfuturespricemovements withmonthlyrebalancing.You
cannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
11017JustMarkets26
GoldDecember31,2007toJanuary9,2017
$1183.76
Source:Bloomberg
XAU Curncy =GoldspotpricequotedinUSdollarsperTroyounce.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
11017JustMarkets27
10YearU.S.Breakevenvs.Copper
10YearUSBreakeven
December31,2015 December30,2016
2.0%
10YearUSBreakeven(LHS)
6100
CopperSpotPrice(RHS)
5600
1.8%
5100
1.6%
4600
1.4%
1.2%
1.0%
Source:Bloomberg,DoubleLine
LHS=Lefthandside,RHS=Righthandside
4100
CopperSpotPrice
December31,2015 December30,2016
2.2%
3600
11017JustMarkets28
InflationBreakevenat2%
September1,2014toDecember31,2016
AsofJanuary3,2017
Source:Bloomberg
11017JustMarkets29
DifferentMeasuresofCoreInflation
4.0
MeasuresofCoreCPIYoY
3.5
3.0
2.5
Recession
2.0
CoreCPI
CorePCE
ClevelandFedMedianCPI
1.5
AtlantaFedStickyCoreCPI
1.0
0.5
Source:Bloomberg
CPI=ConsumerPriceIndexisameasurethatexaminestheweightedaverageofpricesofabasketofconsumergoodsandservices, suchastransportation,foodand
medicalcare.PCE=PersonalConsumptionExpendituresistheprimarymeasureofconsumerspendingongoodsandservicesintheU.S.Economy.YoY=yearover
year.
11017JustMarkets30
U.S.PriceStats CPIYoY
January1,2009 December31,2016
TheannualrateofinflationrecordedbyPriceStats punchedthroughthe2%mark
forthefirsttimeintwoyearson23rdDecemberandisacceleratingrapidly.
StateStreet
Source:StateStreet
Source:Bloomberg
CPI=ConsumerPriceIndexisameasurethatexaminestheweightedaverageofpricesofabasketofconsumergoodsandservices, suchastransportation,foodand
medicalcare.YoY=yearoveryear.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
11017JustMarkets31
U.S.WageGrowthOverall
YearoverYearChangeofMedianWageGrowth(%)
March1997 November2016
6.0
Overall
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Source:AtlantaFed,DoubleLine
11017JustMarkets32
U.S.,Eurozone,UKandJapanCPIYoY
October14,2006toJanuary3,2017
Source:Bloomberg
CPI=ConsumerPriceIndexisameasurethatexaminestheweightedaverageofpricesofabasketofconsumergoodsandservices, suchastransportation,foodand
medicalcare.YoY=yearoveryear.
11017JustMarkets33
10YearBundvs.GermanCPI
January31,2000toJanuary5,2017
Source:Bloomberg
CPImeasurespricespaidbyconsumersforamarketbasketofconsumergoodsandservices.Theyearlygrowthratesrepresenttheinflationrate.GRCP20YYIndexis
GermanyCPI,LW743065CorpisaGermanCorporatebond.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
11017JustMarkets34
TheFed
11017JustMarkets35
Fed2017DotPlot
Source:BiancoResearch
11017JustMarkets36
Evolutionof2017DotPlot
Source:Stifel
11017JustMarkets37
ChangeinEffectiveFedFundsDuringPreviousHiking
Cycles
ChangeinEffectiveFedFundsduringPreviousHikingCycles
(*20142016HikingcycleproxiedfromWuXiaShadowRate)
5
4
3
PCTChange
2
1
19941995
19992000
20042006
20142016
2
3
4
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40
MonthsAroundFedTightening
Source:Bloomberg,DoubleLine
11017JustMarkets38
InterestRates
11017JustMarkets39
FedFundsTargetwithLIBORCurve
Source:Bloomberg
ICELIBOR=LondonInterbankOfferedrateadministeredbyICEBenchmarkAdministrationFixingforU.S.Dollar.Thefixingisconductedeachdateat11am.Itsanaveragederivedfromthequotations
providedbythebanksdeterminedbytheICEBenchmarkAdministration.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
11017JustMarkets40
U.S.Breakevens January6,2013toJanuary9,2017
Source:DoubleLine,Bloomberg
USGGBEBreakevens =Arethebreakevenfortheyearsindicated.Theyarecalculatedbysubtractingtherealyieldoftheinflationlinkedmaturitycurveformtheyieldoftheclosestnominal
Treasurymaturity.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
11017JustMarkets41
SharesOutstandingofTIPSETF(Ticker:TIP)
January5,2012toJanuary3,2017
Source:Bloomberg
TIPSETF=iSharesTIPSBondETFisanexchangetradedfundincorporatedintheUSA.TheETFwilltracktheBloombergBarclaysCapitalUSTreasuryInflationNotesIndex.You
cannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
11017JustMarkets42
U.S.2YearTreasury
January9,2011throughJanuary9,2017
(Inbasispoints)
1.19
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapitalLP
GT02=US2YearTreasuryBond.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
11017JustMarkets43
U.S.5YearTreasury
(Inbasispoints)
January9,2011throughJanuary9,2017
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapitalLP
GT5=US5YearTreasuryBond.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
1.88
11017JustMarkets44
U.S.Treasuries:LeverageFund5yearU.S.Treasury
Shorts(CFTC) June30,2006toJanuary3,2017
Source:Bloomberg
CFTC=CommitmentsofTradersReport.
11017JustMarkets45
U.S.10YearTreasury
(Inbasispoints)
January9,2011throughJanuary9,2017
2.38
1.39
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapitalLP
GT10=US10YearTreasuryBond.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
11017JustMarkets46
U.S.Rates:U.S.Treasury10yYieldForecast
August4,2011toJanuary3,2017
Source:Bloomberg
Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
11017JustMarkets47
Copper/GoldRatioand10YearU.S.TreasuryYield
January11,2012toJanuary9,2017
Source:Bloomberg
USGG10YrIndex=10yearU.S.treasuryindex.HG1COMBComdty =the1st genericfuturescontract.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
11017JustMarkets48
CouplingbetweenU.S.DollarandU.S.Treasury10year
Yields January4,2015toJanuary3,2017
Source:Bloomberg,DoubleLine
DXY=TheU.S.dollarIndexaveragestheexchangeratesbetweentheUSDandmajorworldcurrencies.USGG10YristhegenericU.S. 10yearTreasury.Youcannotinvest
directlyinanindex.
11017JustMarkets49
10yU.S.Treasury BundSpread
Asof12/30/16
10yUSTBundSpread
2.50
USTBundSpread
+/StDev
2.00
Avg.
+/2StDev
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
3/31/2016
3/31/2015
3/31/2014
3/31/2013
3/31/2012
3/31/2011
3/31/2010
3/31/2009
3/31/2008
3/31/2007
3/31/2006
3/31/2005
3/31/2004
3/31/2003
3/31/2002
3/31/2001
3/31/2000
3/31/1999
3/31/1998
3/31/1997
3/31/1996
3/31/1995
3/31/1994
3/31/1993
3/31/1992
3/31/1991
3/31/1990
1.50
3/31/1989
1.00
Source:Bloomberg,DoubleLine
Standarddeviation=Ameasureofthedispersionofasetofdatafromitsmean.Themorespreadapartthedata,thehigherthedeviation.
11017JustMarkets50
TaperTantrum: Nowandthen
January3,2011toJanuary3,2017
Source:Bloomberg,DoubleLine
USGG10YristhegenericU.S.10yearTreasury.
11017JustMarkets51
U.S.30YearTreasury
(Inbasispoints)
January9,2011throughJanuary9,2017
2.97
2.22
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapitalLP
GT30=US30YearTreasuryBond.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
2.09
11017JustMarkets52
30yU.S.TreasuryTotalReturnbyYear
Asof12/31/16
150
30yUSTTotalReturnbyYear
(Since1988)
2008
140
2011
CumulativePerformance
130
2014
1995
120
110
2010
2012
2016
100
2015
90
2013
80
70
0
7
14
21
28
35
42
49
56
63
70
77
84
91
98
105
112
119
126
133
140
147
154
161
168
175
182
189
196
203
210
217
224
231
238
245
252
259
2009
TradingDays
Source:BankofAmericaMerrillLynch;DoubleLine
11017JustMarkets53
JunkBonds
January11,2011toJanuary11,2017
Source:DoubleLine,Bloomberg
JNK=SPDRBarclaysHighYieldBondETFinanexchangetradedincorporatedintheU.S.ItseeksinvestmentresultsthatcorrespondtothepriceandyieldoftheBarclaysHighYieldVery
LiquidBondIndex.Theaboveisonlypresentedasaproxyanddoesnotconstituteanofferorsolicitationtosellsharesorsecurities.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
11017JustMarkets54
S&P500versusHighYieldETF
1.2
GrowthofaDollar
December31,2015 December30,2016
1.1
S&P500
iSharesiBoxxHighYieldETF
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
Source:Bloomberg,DoubleLine
S&P500isStandard&Poors500Indexisacapitalizationweightedindexof500U.S.stocks.iSharesiBoxx HighYieldETFisanexchangetradedfundthatseekstotracktheinvestment
resultsofanindexcomposedofU.S.dollardenominatedhighyieldcorporatebonds.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
11017JustMarkets55
U.S.HighYieldDefaultRates
HY=HighYield,RHS=Righthandside
11017JustMarkets56
U.S.CrudeOilInventoriesbyYear
AsofDecember30,2016
USCrudeOilInventoriesbyYear
550,000
500,000
2005
2006
450,000
2007
2008
2009
400,000
2010
2011
2012
350,000
2013
2014
2015
300,000
2016
250,000
1
11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Weeks
11017JustMarkets57
TrumpEffect
11017JustMarkets58
StockMarket(S&P500)BySectorPerformance
July8,2016toDecember31,20176
Relative Returnssince7/8/16
125.00
120.00
115.00
Utilities
Healthcare
110.00
ConsumerStaples
Technology
105.00
FinancialServices
Energy
100.00
Industrials
95.00
90.00
85.00
7/8/2016
8/8/2016
9/8/2016
10/8/2016
11/8/2016
12/8/2016
Source:RobertShiller,DoubleLine,http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
Mean=Istheaverageofthenumbersoracentralvalue.Median=Denotesorrelatedtoavaluelyingatthemidpointofafrequencydistributionofobservedvalues..Pleasesee
11017JustMarkets59
indexdefinitionsforS&P500.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
StockMarketReturnsPostElection
Source:RobertShiller,DoubleLine,http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
Mean=Istheaverageofthenumbersoracentralvalue.Median=Denotesorrelatedtoavaluelyingatthemidpointofafrequencydistributionofobservedvalues..Pleasesee
11017JustMarkets60
indexdefinitionsforS&P500.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
TopFiveTradingPartners
August31,1978toAugust31,2016
Pleaseseeappendixforindexdefinitions.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
11017JustMarkets61
TrumpTaxPlan
Source:FinancialSamurai
http://www.financialsamurai.com/waystocounteractdonaldtrumpsmiddleclasstaxhike/
11017JustMarkets62
ChinaTopFiveTradingPartners
August31,1978toAugust31,2016
Source:Bloomberg;DoubleLine
11017JustMarkets63
MexicoExportsTradingPartners
August31,1978toAugust31,2016
Source:Bloomberg;DoubleLine
11017JustMarkets64
Trump First100DayPlan
ToMakeAmericaGreatAgain
ThreeMainAreasofFocus:
1)
CleaningUpWashington
ImposetermlimitsonCongress
2)
ProtectingAmericanWorkers
3)
RestoringLaw&Order
Source:NPR,November9,2016HereisWhatDonaldTrumpWantstodoinHisFirst100Days
11017JustMarkets65
Trump FirstDayInOfficePlan
ToCleanupWashington
Immediatelypursuethefollowingsixmeasurestocleanup
corruptionandspecialinterestcollusioninWashingtonDC:
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
Proposeconstitutionalamendmenttoimposetermlimitsonallmembersof
Congress
FederalEmployeehiringfreeze(exceptmilitary,publicsafetyandpublichealth)
Arequirementthatforeverynewfederalregulation,twoexistingregulationsmust
beeliminated
A5yearbanonWhitehouseorCongressionalofficialsbecominglobbyistsafter
leavinggovernmentservice
LifetimebanonWhitehouseofficialslobbyingonbehalfofforeigngovernments
AcompletebanonforeignlobbyistsraisingmoneyforAmericanelections
Source:NPR,November9,2016HereisWhatDonaldTrumpWantstodoinHisFirst100Days
11017JustMarkets66
Trump FirstDayInOfficePlan
ToProtectAmericanWorkers
Immediatelypursuethefollowingsevenactionstoprotect
AmericanWorkers:
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
AnnouncemyintentiontorenegotiateNAFTAorwithdrawfromthedealunder
Article2205
AnnounceourwithdrawalfromtheTransPacificPartnership
DirectSecretaryoftheTreasurytolabelChinaacurrencymanipulator
DirectSecretaryofCommercetoidentifyforeigntradingabusesthatunfairly
impactAmericanworkers anduseeverytooltoendtheabusesimmediately
Liftrestrictionsontheproductionof$50trillionworthofjobproducingAmerican
energyreserves includingshale,oil,naturalgasandcleancoal
LiftObamaClintonroadblocksandallowvitalenergyinfrastructureprojects,like
KeystonePipelinetomoveforward
CancelpaymentstoU.N.climatechangeprogramsandusethemoneytofix
Americaswaterandenvironmentalinfrastructure
Source:NPR,November9,2016HereisWhatDonaldTrumpWantstodoinHisFirst100Days
11017JustMarkets67
Trump FirstDayInOfficePlan
ToRestoreLaw&Order
Immediatelypursuethefollowingfiveactionstorestoresecurity
andtheconstitutionalruleoflaw:
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
Canceleveryunconstitutionalexecutiveaction,memorandumandorderissuedby
PresidentObama
BegintheprocessofreplacingJusticeScalia
CancelallfederalfundingtoSanctuarycities
Beginremoving morethan2millioncriminalillegalimmigrantsandcancelvisasto
foreigncountriesthatwonttakethemback
Suspendimmigrationfromterrorproneregionswherevettingcannotsafelyoccur
Source:NPR,November9,2016HereisWhatDonaldTrumpWantstodoinHisFirst100Days
11017JustMarkets68
Trump First100DayPlan
ToMakeAmericaGreatAgain
WorkingwithCongress:
Introduce10piecesoflegislationthat:
1) RepealObamacare
2) Fundconstructionforawall(withprovisionthatMexicoreimbursetheU.S)
3) Encourageinfrastructureinvestment
4) Rebuildmilitarybases
5) Promoteschoolchoice
Source:NPR,November9,2016HereisWhatDonaldTrumpWantstodoinHisFirst100Days
11017JustMarkets69
Trump WorkingwithCongressPlan
BroaderLegislativeMeasures
1)
MiddleClassTaxRelief&SimplificationAct
Aneconomicplandesignedtogrowtheeconomy4%peryearandcreateatleast25millionnewjobsthroughmassivetax
reductionandsimplification,incombinationwithtradereform,regulatoryrelief,andliftingtherestrictionsonAmerican
energy.Thelargesttaxreductionsareforthemiddleclass.Amiddleclassfamilywith2childrenwillgeta35%taxcut.The
currentnumberofbracketswillbereducedfrom7to3,andtaxformswilllikewisebegreatlysimplified.Thebusinessrate
willbeloweredfrom35to15percent, andthetrillionsofdollarsofAmericancorporatemoneyoverseascannowbe
broughtbackata10percentrate.
2)
EndOffshoringAct
Establishestariffstodiscouragecompaniesfromlayingoffworkerstorelocateoverseas
3)
AmericanEnergy&InfrastructureAct
Leveragepublicprivatepartnershipswithtaxincentivestospur$1trillionininfrastructureinvestmentover
10years
4)
SchoolofChoice
EndsCommonCore.Bringssupervisionbacktolocalcommunities.Expandsvocationalandtechnical
training.Makescollegeaffordable.
5) Repeal&ReplaceObamacareAct
Replaecs withHealthSavingsAccounts,managesMedicaidfunds,cutsredtapeattheFDA
Source:NPR,November9,2016HereisWhatDonaldTrumpWantstodoinHisFirst100Days
11017JustMarkets70
Trump WorkingwithCongressPlan
BroaderLegislativeMeasures
6)
AffordableChildcare&EldercareAct
Deductionsforchildcareandeldercarefromtaxes,incentivizesemployerstoprovideonsidechildcare,createsDependent
caresavingsaccountsforyoungandelderlydependents
7)
EndIllegalImmigrationAct
WallconstructionwithprovisionforMexicanreimbursement,establishes2yearmandatoryminimumfederalprisonfor
illegallyreenteringtheU.S.afterdeportation,5yearmandatoryminimumforreenteringwithfelonyconvictions,multiple
misdemeanorsortwoormotepriordeportations,reformsvisarulestoenhancepenaltiesforoverstayingandensuresjobs
areofferedtoAmericansfirst.
8)
RestoringCommunitySafety
Reducessurgingcrime,drugsandviolencebycreatingaTaskForceOnViolentCrimeandincreasingfunding
forprogramsthattrainandassistlocalpolice;increasesresourcesforfederallawenforcementagenciesand
federalprosecutorstodismantlecriminalgangsandputviolentoffendersbehindbars.
9)
RestoringNationalSecurityAct
Rebuildsourmilitarybyeliminatingthedefensesequesterandexpandingmilitaryinvestment;provides
VeteranswiththeabilitytoreceivepublicVAtreatmentorattendtheprivatedoctoroftheirchoice;
protectsourvitalinfrastructurefromcyberattack;establishesnewscreeningproceduresforimmigrationto
ensurethosewhoareadmittedtoourcountrysupportourpeopleandourvalues
10) CleanupCorruptioninWashingtonAct
EnactsnewethicsreformstoDraintheSwampandreducethecorruptinginfluenceofspecialinterestson
ourpolitics.
Source:NPR,November9,2016HereisWhatDonaldTrumpWantstodoinHisFirst100Days
11017JustMarkets71
Stocks
11017JustMarkets72
StockMarket12MonthEPSvs.PriceChange
Source:FactSet
EPS=EarningsperShare.PleaseseindexdefinitionsforS&P500.Pleaseseeappendixforindexdefinition.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
11017JustMarkets73
CorporateProfitsvs.EmployeeCompensation
Source:RobertShiller,DoubleLine,http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
GDP=GrossDomesticProductmeasurestheamountofgoodsandservicesproducedwithinagivencountry.PleaseseindexdefinitionsforS&P500.Youcannotinvestdirectly
inanindex.
11017JustMarkets74
ShillerPERatio
January1,1880throughDecember31,2016
50
45
2000
CAPE10PriceEarnings Ratio
PriceEarningsRatio(CAPE,P/E10)
January1881 December2016
40
35
1929
30
25
28.26
1901
1966
20
15
10
5
0
1880
1981
1921
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
Source:RobertShiller,DoubleLine,http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
CAPE=CyclicallyAdjustedPriceEarnings.CAPE10basedonS&P500.Pleaseseeappendixforindexdefinitions.PE=priceearnings.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
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S&P500ConsensusEstimates
January1,1880throughDecember31,2016
Source:NedDavisResearch
PE=PriceEarnings.PleaseseeappendixforS&P500definition.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
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S&P500Performancevs.MarginDebt
December31,1995throughJanuary9,2017
NYSE=NewYorkStockExchange,S&P500Indexisthecapitalizationweightedindexoftheofthe500largecompanieshavingcommonstockontheNYSE.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
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CycleAdjustedCAPEPE
January1,1998toDecember31,2016
Source:Minack Advisors;BureauofLabor&Statistics(BLS),NationalBureauofEconomicResearch(NBER)
DM=DevelopedMarkets,Pleaseseeappendixforindexdefinitions.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
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MSCIEM(10yrs)
January11,2007toJanuary6,2017
Source:Bloomberg
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MSCIEMIndexisafreefloatweightedequityindexthatcaptureslargeandmidcaprepresentationacrossEmergingMarkets(EM)countries.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
SPX/MSCIEM(5yrs)
January5,2012toJanuary5,2017
Source:Bloomberg
S&P500isStandard&Poors500Indexisacapitalizationweightedindexof500U.S.stocks.MSCIEMIndexisafreefloatweightedequityindexthatcaptureslargeandmidcap
representationacrossEmergingMarkets(EM)countries.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
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SPX/Nikkei(3years) December28,2014toJanuary3,2017
Source:Bloomberg
S&P500isStandard&Poors500Indexisacapitalizationweightedindexof500U.S.stocks.Nikkei(NKY)Indexisapriceweightedaverageof225topratedJapanesecompanieslistedinthe
FirstSectionoftheTokyoStockExchange.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
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S&P500/MSCIEurope(3years) January4,2014toJanuary3,2017
Source:Bloomberg
S&P500isStandard&Poors500Indexisacapitalizationweightedindexof500U.S.stocks.MSCIEurope(MXEU)Indexisafreefloatweightedequityindexdesignedtomeasuretheequity
marketperformanceofthedevelopedmarketsinEurope.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
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S&P500vs.EMBDecember31,2015toDecember31,2016
1.2
S&P500
iSharesJPMorganUSDEMBondETF
GrowthofaDollar
December31,2015 December30,2016
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
Source:Bloomberg,DoubleLine
S&P500isStandard&Poors500Indexisacapitalizationweightedindexof500U.S.stocks.iSharesJPMorganUSDEMBondETFisahedgedUCITSexchangetradedfund.Youcannotinvest
directlyinanindex.
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IndexDescriptions
BarclaysCapitalUSAggregateIndex TheBarclaysCapitalUSAggregateIndexrepresentssecuritiesthatareSECregistered,taxable,anddollardenominated.TheindexcoverstheUSinvestmentgrade
fixedratebondmarket,withindexcomponentsforgovernmentandcorporatesecurities,mortgagepassthroughsecurities,andassetbackedsecurities.Thesemajorsectorsaresubdividedintomore
specificindicesthatarecalculatedandreportedonaregularbasis.
BarclaysCapitalUSTreasuryIndex ThisindexistheUSTreasurycomponentoftheUSGovernmentindex.PublicobligationsoftheUSTreasurywitharemainingmaturityofoneyearormore.
BarclaysCapitalUSTreasury10YearIndex Thisindexisthe10yearcomponentoftheUSGovernmentindex.
BarclaysCapitalCapitalUSTreasury30YearIndex Thisindexisthe30yearcomponentoftheUSGovernmentindex.
BarclaysCapitalUSHighYieldIndex TheBarclaysCapitalUSHighYieldIndexcoverstheuniverseoffixedrate,noninvestmentgradedebt.Eurobondsanddebtissuer fromcountriesdesignatedas
emergingmarkets(e.g.Argentina,Brazil,Venezuela,etc.)areexcluded,butCanadianandglobalbonds(SECregistered)ofissuersinnonEMGcountriesareincluded.Originalissuezereos,stepupcoupon
structures,144Asandpayinkind(PIK,asofOctober1,2009)arealsoincluded.
BofAMerrillLynchUSGovernmentIndex(GOAO) TheMerrillLynchUSGovernmentIndextrackstheperformanceofUSgovernment(i.e.securitiesintheTreasuryandAgencyindices.)
BofAMerrillLynchUS15+YearTreasuryIndexLongTreasuries(G802) ThisindexisasubsetoftheBofAMerrillLynchUSTreasuryIndexincludingallsecuritieswitharemainingtermoffinalmaturity
greaterthan15years..
BofAMerrillLynchUSCorporateIndex(COAO)InvestmentGrade TheMerrillLynchCorporateIndextrackstheperformanceofUSdollardenominatedinvestmentgradecorporatedebtpubliclyissued
intheUSdomesticmarket.Qualifyingsecuritiesmusthaveaninvestmentgraderating(basedonanaverageofMoodys,S&PandFitch)andaninvestmentgraderatedcountryofrisk(basedonan
averageofMoodys,S&PandFitchforeigncurrencylongtermsovereigndebtratings).Securitiesmusthaveatleastoneyearremainingtermtofinalmaturity,afixedcouponscheduleandaminimum
amountoutstandingof$250MM.
BofAMerrillLynchUSAllConvertiblesIndex(VOSO) TheMerrillLynchAllConvertibleIndexisaruledrivenindex.whichincludesallbondsandpreferredstocksofU.S.registered companies,whichhave
$50millionormoreinaggregatemarketvalueandareconvertiblesinU.S.dollardenominatedcommonstocks,ADRsorcashequivalents.Pleasenoteaninvestorcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
CRBCommodityIndex(CRY) Anunweightedgeometricaverageofsomeimportantcommodities.Itaveragespricesacross17commoditiesandacrosstime.Theindextracksenergy,grains,industrials,
livestock,preciousmetals,andagriculturals.
S&P500(SPX) S&P500isafreefloatcapitalizationweightedindexpublishedsince1957ofthepricesof500largecapcommonstocksactively tradedintheUnitedStates.
StandardDeviation Sigma=standarddeviation.Itshowshowmuchvariationthereisfromtheaverage(mean,orexpected/budgetedvalue).Alow standarddeviationindicatedthatthedatapoint
tendtobeveryclosetothemean,whereashighstandarddeviationindicatedthatthedateisspreadoutoveralargerangeofvalues.
DowJones UBSDJCommodityIndex TheDowJonesUBS CommodityindexiscomposedofcommoditiestradedonU.S.exchanges,withtheexceptionofaluminum,nickelandzinc,whichtradeon
theLondonMetalExchange(LME).
Copper=CopperSpotPrice(HGI)Copperistheworldsthirdmostusedmetalbehindironandaluminumprimarilyusedinhighlycyclicalindustriesincludingconstructionandindustrialmachinery
manufacturing.SpotpricequotedinUSD/lb.
Gold=GoldSpotPrice(Golds)TheGoldSpotpriceisquotedasUSDollarperTroyOunce.
CrudeOil=Crudeoilvariesgreatlyinappearancedependingonitscomposition.WestTexasintermediate(WTI)=Texaslightsweetcrudeisusedasabenchmarkinoilpricing.Itslightbecauseofthe
lowdensityandsweetbecauseoflowsulfur.Brentcrude=Isamajortradingclassificationofsweetlightcrude.BrentistheoilmakeralsoknownasBrentBlend.
VolatilityIndex(VIX)TheVIXshowsthemarket'sexpectationof30dayvolatility.Itisconstructedusingtheimpliedvolatilitiesofawiderangeof S&P500indexoptions. Thisvolatilityismeanttobe
forwardlookingandiscalculatedfrombothcallsandputs. TheVIXisawidelyusedmeasureofmarketriskandisoftenreferredtoas the"investorfeargauge.
BofA MerrillLynchU.S.CommercialMortgageBackedSecuritiesIndex(CMA0) TheBofA MerrillLynchUSFixedRateCMBSIndextrackstheperformanceofUSdollardenominatedinvestmentgrade
fixedratecommercialmortgagebackedsecuritiespubliclyissuedintheUSdomesticmarket.Qualifyingsecuritiesmusthaveaninvestmentgraderating(basedonanaverageofMoodys,S&PandFitch),a
fixedcouponschedule,atleastoneyearremainingtermtofinalmaturityandatleastonemonthtothelastexpectedcashflow.
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IndexDescriptions
BofA MerrillLynchUSDollarEmergingMarketsSovereignPlusIndex(IGOV) ThisindextrackstheperformanceofUSdollardenominatedemergingmarketandcrossoversovereigndebtpublicly
issuedintheeurobond orUSdomesticmarket.QualifyingcountriesmusthaveaBB1orlowerforeigncurrencylongtermsovereigndebtrating(basedon anaverageofMoodys,S&P,andFitch).
BofA MerrillLynchU.S.HighYieldCashPayIndex(J0A0)BelowInvestmentGrade TheMerrillLynchHighYieldIndextrackstheperformanceofUSdollardenominatedbelowinvestmentgrade
corporatedebt,currentlyinacouponpayingperiod,thatispubliclyissuedintheUSdomesticmarket.Qualifyingsecurities musthaveabelowinvestmentgraderating(basedonanaverageofMoodys,
S&PandFirthforeigncurrencylongtermsovereigndebtratings).Musthaveoneyearremainingtofinalmaturityandaminimumoutstandingamountof$100MM.
BofA MerrillLynchInternationalGovernmentIndex(NOGO) TheMerrillLynchInternationalIndextrackstheperformanceofAustralia,Canadian,French,German,Japan,Dutch,SwissandUK
investmentgradesovereigndebtpubliclyissuedanddenominatedintheissuersowndomesticmarketandcurrency.Qualifyingsecuritiesmusthaveatleastoneyearremainingtermtofinalmaturity,a
fixedcouponscheduleandaminimumamountoutstanding.
BofAMerrillLynchMortgageBackedSecuritiesIndex(MOA0) ThisindextrackstheperformanceofUSdollardenominatedfixedrateandhybridresidentialmortgagepassthroughsecuritiespublicly
issuedbyUSagenciesintheUSdomesticmarket.30year,20year,15yearandinterestonlyfixedratemortgagepoolsareincludedintheIndexprovidedtheyhaveatleastoneyearremainingtermto
finalmaturityandaminimumamountoutstandingofatleast$5billionpergenericcouponand$250MMperproductionyearwithineachgenericcoupon.
BofAMerrillLynchU.S.MunicipalSecuritiesIndex(UOA0) ThisindextrackstheperformanceofUSdollardenominatedinvestmentgradetaxexemptdebtpubliclyissuedbyUSstatesandterritories,
andtheirpoliticalsubdivisions,intheUSdomesticmarket.Qualifyingsecuritiesmusthaveatleastoneyearremainingterm to finalmaturity,afixedcouponscheduleandaninvestmentgraderating
(basedonMoodys,S&PandFitch).Minimumsizevarybasedontheinitialtermtofinalmaturityattimeofissuance.
BarclaysCapitalGlobalEmergingMarketsIndex TheBarclaysCapitalGlobalEmergingMarketsIndexrepresentstheunionoftheUSDdenominatedUSEmergingMarketsindexandthe predominately
EURdenominatedPanEuroEmergingMarketsIndex,coveringemergingmarketsinthefollowingregions:Americas,Europe,MiddleEast,Africa,andAsia.Aswithotherfixedincomebenchmarks
providedbyBarclaysCapital,theindexisrulesbased,whichallowsforanunbiasedviewofthemarketplaceandeasyreplicability.
JPMorganInvestmentGradeCorporateIndex JPMorganInvestmentGradeCorporateIndexincludesperformanceofUSdollardenominatedinvestmentgradecorporatedebtpubliclyissuedintheUS
domesticmarket.Qualifyingsecuritiesmusthaveaninvestmentgraderating(basedonanaverageofMoodys,S&PandFitch)andaninvestmentgraderatedcountryofrisk(basedonanaverageof
Moodys,S&PandFitchforeigncurrencylongtermsovereigndebtratings).Securitiesmusthaveatleastoneyearremainingterm tofinalmaturity,afixedcouponscheduleandaminimumamount
outstandingof$250MM.
DrawDown Thepeaktotroughdeclineduringaspecificrecordperiodofaninvestment,fundorcommodity.Adrawdownisusuallyquotedasthepercentagebetweenthepeakandthetrough.
NAV Amutualfund'spricepershareorexchangetradedfund's(ETF)persharevalue.Inbothcases,thepersharedollaramountof thefundiscalculatedbydividingthetotalvalueofallthesecurities
initsportfolio,lessanyliabilities,bythenumberoffundsharesoutstanding.
CMO Atypeofmortgagebackedsecuritythatcreatesseparatepoolsofpassthroughratesfordifferentclassesofbondholderswith varyingmaturities,calledtranches.Therepaymentsfromthepool
ofpassthroughsecuritiesareusedtoretirethebondsintheorderspecifiedbythebonds'prospectus
TIPS TreasuryInflationProtection.Atreasurysecuritythatisindexedtoinflationinordertoprotectinvestorsfromthenegativeeffectsofinflation.TIPSareconsideredanextremelylowrisk
investmentsincetheyarebackedbytheU.S.governmentandsincetheirparvalueriseswithinflation,asmeasuredbytheConsumerPriceIndex,whiletheirinterestrateremainsfixed.
CPI ConsumerPriceIndex.Ameasurethatexaminestheweightedaverageofpricesofabasketofconsumergoodsandservices,such as transportation,foodandmedicalcare.
CashFlow Cashflowmeasuresthecashgeneratingcapabilityofacompanybyaddingnoncashcharges(e.g.depreciation)andinterestexpensetopretaxincome.
ratedIndex(JOA3) .AcomponentoftheBofA/MerrillLynchHighYieldCashPayIndexconcentratingonCCCratedHighYieldcreditonly.
MSCIWorldIndex(MXWO) Isafreefloatweightedequityindexincludingdevelopedworldmarkets,anddoesnotincludeemergingmarkets.
MSCIACWIIndex(MXWD) Isafreefloatweightedequityindexincludingdevelopedworldmarketsandemergingmarkets.
MSCIAsiaIndex(MXAP) IsafreefloatequityindexandincludesAsiaPacificcountries.
MSCIEmergingMarketsIndex(MXEF) IsafreefloatweightedequityindexthatcaptureslargeandmidcaprepresentationacrossEmergingMarkets(EM)countries.
MSCILatAm Index(MXLA) IsafreefloatweightedequityindexincludingLatinAmericancountries.
MSCIUSIndex(MXUS) IsafreefloatweightedequityindexincludingU.S.stocks.
MSCIWorldIndexExUSIndex(MXWOU) IsafreefloatweightedequityindexincludingdevelopedworldmarketsexcludingtheU.S.,anddoesnotincludeemergingmarkets.
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IndexDescriptions
BofA/MerrillLynchCreditIndexAAAratedIndex(COA1) .AcomponentoftheBofA/MerrillLynchCreditIndexconcentratingonthehighestratedAAAinvestmentgradecredits.
BofAMerrillLynchUSTreasuryIndex(G0Q0)TheMerrillLynchUSTreasuryIndextrackstheperformanceofUSdollardenominatedsovereigndebtpubliclyissuedbytheUSgovernmentinitsdomestic
market.Qualifyingsecuritiesmusthaveatleastoneyearremainingtermtofinalmaturity,afixedcouponscheduleandaminimumamountoutstandingof$1billion.
BofA/MerrillLynch13YearTreasuryIndex(G1O2) isasubsetoftheBofA MerrillLunchUSTreasuryIndexincludingallsecuritieswitharemainingtermtofinalmaturitylessthan3years.TheBofA
MerrillLynchUSTreasuryIndextrackstheperformanceofUSdollardenominatedsovereigndebtpubliclyissuedbytheUSgovernmentinitsdomesticmarket.
BofA MerrillLynchUS1015YearTreasuryIndexLongTreasury(G7O2)TheMerrillLynchUS1015TreasuryIndextrackstheperformanceofUSdollardenominated1015yearsovereigndebtpublicly
issuedbytheUSgovernmentinitsdomesticmarket.ItisasubsetoftheBofAMerrillLynchU.S.TreasuryIndex(GOQO).
BofA MerrillLynchCurrent10yearUSTIndex Thisindexisthe10yearcomponentoftheUSGovernmentindex.
BofAMerrillLynchCurrent30yearUSTIndex Thisindexisthe30yearcomponentoftheUSGovernmentindex.
JPMorganCorporateEMBIBroadDiversifiedIndex(JBCDCOMP) Thisindextrackstheperformanceofinvestmentgradecorporatedebtpublicallyissuedacrossarangeofemergingmarketcountries.
ShanghaiIndex TheShanghaiStockExchangeCompositeisacapitalizationweightedindextrackingdailypriceperformanceofallAandBshareslistedontheShanghaiStockExchange.Thisindexwas
developedDecember19,1990withabasevalueof100.
S&P/CaseShillerCompositeHomePriceIndex TheCaseShillerHomePriceIndices,onecomprisedofpricechangeswithinall20metropolitanmarkets,andanothercomprisedof pricechangeswithin
thefollowingsubsetof10metropolitanmarkets:Boston,Chicago,Denver,LasVegas,LosAngeles,Miami,NewYork,SanDiego, SanFranciscoandWashingtonDC.Inadditiontothose10markets,the20
HomePriceindexreflectspricechangesforAtlanta,Charlotte,Dallas,Detroit,Minneapolis,Phoenix,Portland,SeattleandTampa.
NASDAQ Acomputerizedsystemthatfacilitatestradingandprovidespricequotationsonmorethan5,000ofthemoreactivelytradedover thecounterstocks.Createdin1971,theNasdaqwasthe
world'sfirstelectronicstockmarket.
Transports TheIndustrialsSectorincludescompanieswhosebusinessesaredominatedbyoneofthefollowingactivities:Themanufactureand distributionofcapitalgoods,includingaerospace&
defense,construction,engineering&buildingproducts,electricalequipmentandindustrialmachinery
Utilities Apublicutilityisabusinessthatfurnishesaneverydaynecessitytothepublicatlarge.Publicutilitiesprovidewater,electricity,naturalgas,telephoneservice,andotheressentials.Utilitiesmay
bepubliclyorprivatelyowned,butmostareoperatedasprivatebusinesses.
BasisPoint Abasispointisaunitthatisequalto1/100th of1%,andisusedtodenotethechangeinafinancialinstrument.
Duration Durationisacommonlyusedmeasureofthepotentialvolatilityofthepriceofadebtsecurity,ortheaggregatemarketvalue ofaportfolioofdebtsecurities,priortomaturity.Securitieswitha
longerdurationgenerallyhavemorevolatilepricesthansecuritiesofcomparablequalitywithashorterduration.
BofA/MerrillLynchInflationLinkedIndex(G0Q1) TheBofA MerrillLynchUSInflationLinkedTreasuryIndextrackstheperformanceofUSdollardenominatedinflationlinkedsovereigndebtpublicly
issuedbytheUSgovernmentinitsdomesticmarket.
CitigroupTIPS(SBUSILSI) . Itmeasuresthereturnsoftheinflationlinkedbondswithfixedratecouponpaymentsthatarelinkedtoaninflationindex.The priceofeachissueintheUSLSIisadjustedby
usinganindexratio.Theindexratioisdeterminedbydividingthecurrentinflationindexlevelbytheinflationindexlevelatthetimeofissueofthesecurity.Theinflationindexispublishedonamonthly
basis,andtheintramonthindexratioiscalculatedusinglinear
interpolation.
BarclaysCapitalCMBSIndex trackstheperformanceofUSdollardenominatedsecuritizedcommercialmortgagebackedsecurities.
Russell2000 measurestheperformanceofthesmallcapsegmentoftheUSequityuniverse.Russell2000isasubsetoftheRussell3000indexrepresentingapproximately10%ofthetotalmarket
capitalizationofthatindex.
S&PGSCI isacompositeindexofcommoditysectorreturnrepresentinganunleveraged,longonlyinvestmentincommodityfuturesthatisbroadlydiversifiedacrossthespectrumofcommodities.
BarclaysEuropeanAggregateIndextracksfixedrate,investmentgradesecuritiesissuedinthefollowingEuropeancurrencies:euro,Britishpounds,Norwegiankrone,Danishkrone,Swedishkrona,Czech
koruna,Hungarianforint,PolishzlotyandSwissfranc.
S&PLSTALevLoanIndex(BankLoans) CreatedbytheLeveragedCommentary&Data(LCD)teamatS&PCapitalIQ,thereviewprovides an overviewandoutlookoftheleveragedloanmarketaswellas
anexpansivereviewoftheS&PLeveragedLoanIndexandsubindexes. Thereviewconsistsofindexgeneralcharacteristics,results,riskreturnprofile,default/distressstatistics, andrepaymentanalysis.It
isnotpossibletoinvestdirectlyinanindex.
Citigroup3MonthTBill(SBMMTB3) 3MonthUSTBillinUSdollars.
MoodysU.S.SpeculativeGradeDefaultRate:Aspeculativegradedefaultoccursifadefaultingissuerheldanspeculativegraderating(Ba1orlower)atthestartoflatest 12monthperiod.Therateis
establishedbydividingthenumberofSpecgradedefaultsbythenumberofSpecgradeissuersatthebeginningofthesampleperiod.
MoodysDistressedRate:PercentageofHighYieldIssuerswhosedebtistradingatdistressedlevels.Distressedissuersaredefinedashavingdebt withOASorCDSof1000bpsormore.
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IndexDescriptions
S&PGSCIAgriculture isacompositeindexofagriculturecommodityfuturesunleveraged,longonlyinvestment.
BarclaysCapitalU.S.30YearTIPSIndex .BarclaysCapital30yearTIPSontherunindexquotedinUSDollarstradedintraday
CitigroupEconomicSurpriseIndex .TheCitigroupEconomicSurpriseIndicesareobjectiveandquantitativemeasuresofeconomicnews.Theyaredefinedasweightedhistoricalstandarddeviationsof
datasurprises(actualreleasesvsBloombergsurveymedian).ApositivereadingoftheEconomicSurpriseIndexsuggeststhateconomicreleaseshaveonbalancebeatingconsensus.Theindicesare
calculateddailyinarollingthreemonthwindow.TheweightsofeconomicindicatorsarederivedfromrelativehighfrequencyspotFXimpactsof1standarddeviationdatasurprises.Theindicesalso
employatimedecayfunctiontoreplicatethelimitedmemoryofmarkets.
DAX ThisindexistheGermanStockIndexisatotalreturnindexof30selectedGermanbluechipstockstradedontheFrankfurtStockExchange.
CAC40 ThisindexthemostwidelyusedindicatoroftheParismarket,reflectstheperformanceofthe40largestequitieslistedinFrance,measuredbyfreefloatmarketcapitalizationandliquidity.
FTSE100 Isacapitalizationweightedindexofthe100mosthighlycapitalizedcompaniestradedontheLondonStockExchange.
MexicoIPCMexico TheMexicanIPCindexisacapitalizationweightedindexoftheleadingstockstradedontheMexicanStockExchange.
HangSeng TheHangSengChinaEnterprisesIndexisafreefloatcapitalizationweightedindexcomprisedofHshareslistedontheHongKong StockExchangeandincludedintheHangSengMainland
CompositeIndex.
KOSPI ThisindexisacapitalizedweightedindexofallcommonsharesontheKoreanStockExchanges.
Nikkei225 TheNikkei225Stockaverageisapriceweightedaverageof225topratedJapanesecompanieslistedintheFirstSectionofthe TokyoStockExchange.
AustraliaAORD S&P/ASXAllOrdinariesrepresents500largestcompaniesintheAustralianequitiesmarket.IndexconstitutesaredrawnfromeligiblecompanieslistedontheAustralianStockExchange.
BrazilBovespaIndex(IBOV)BrazilTheBovespaIndexisagrossreturnindexweightedbytradedvolumeandiscomprisedofthemostliquidstockstradedontheSao PauloStockExchange.The
BovespaIndexhasbeendivided10timesbyafactorof10sinceJanuary1,1985.
ShanghaiIndex(SHCOMP)TheShanghaiStockExchangeCompositeIndexisacapitalizationweightedindex.TheindextracksthedailyperformanceofallAsharesandBshareslistedontheShanghai
StockExchange.TheindexwasdevelopedonDecember19,1990withabasevalueof100.
BSEIndiaSensitiveIndex(Sensex)IndiaTheSensexisacapweightedindex.Theselectionoftheindexmembershasbeenmadeonthebasisofliquidity,depthandfloatingstockadjustmentdepthand
industryrepresentation.
DowJonesIndustrialAverageDowJones isapriceweightedaverageof30bluechipstocksthataregenerallytheleadersintheirindustry.
Eurostoxx BasedontheEUROSTOXX50IndexoptionstradedonEUREX,measuringimpliedvolatilityonoptionswitharolling30dayexpiry.
SwissMarketIndexSwitzerland(SMI) isanindexofthelargestandmostliquidstockstradedontheGeneva,ZurichandBaselStockExchanges.
FTSEMIBIndexItaly Isanindexconsistingofthe40mostliquidandcapitalizedstockslistedontheBorsa Italiana.
Indice Bursatil Espanol (IBEX)IndexSpain TheofficialindexoftheSpanishContinuousMarket.Theindexiscomprisedofthe35mostliquidstockstradedontheContinuousmarket.Itiscalculated,
supervisedandpublishedbytheSociedad deBolsas.
Standard&Poor's/TorontoStockExchangeCompositeIndex Canada AcapitalizationweightedindexdesignedtomeasuremarketactivityofstockslistedontheTorontoStockExchange.
BuenosAiresStockExchangeMerval IndexArgentina TheArgintina Merval Indexisabasketweightedindex,isthemarketvalueofastockportfolio,selectedaccordingtoparticipationintheBuenos
AiresStockExchange.
SantiagoStockExchangeIPSAIndexChile TheISPAIndexisaTotalReturnIndexandiscomposedofthe40stockswiththehighestaverageannualtradingvolumeinthe SantiagoStockExchange.
TaiwanStockExchangeWeightedIndexTaiwan TWSEIndexisacapitalizationweightedindexofalllistedcommonsharesontheTaiwanStockExchange.
FTSEBursaMalaysiaKLCIIndexMalaysia MalaysiaKLCIIndexcomprisesofthelargest30companiesbyfullmarketcapitalizationonBursaMalaysia'sMainBoard.
ThailandStockExchangeIndexThailand ThailandStockExchangeNetForeignStocksInvestment(THB)usingtheU.S.dollar.
IndonesiaJakartaStockExchangeIndexIndonesia IndexisupdateddirectlyfromJakartausingtheU.S.dollar.
ThePhilippineStockExchangePSEi IndexPhilippines isacapitalizationweightedindexcomposedofstocksrepresentativeoftheIndustrial,Properties,Services,HoldingFirms,FinancialandMining&
OilSectorsofthePSE.
PolandWarsawStockExchangeIndex"Poland"isthetotalbookvalue(nominalsharepricexsharesoutstanding)ofallcompaniestradingontheWarsawStockExchange.
PragueStockExchangeIndex"Czech"ismarketcapweightedcontaining13securities.
CSFBRussiaStockMarketIndexRussia USDDailyCapWeightedisacapitalizationweighted,basedon30stocks&denominatedinUSdollars
BudapestStockExchangeBudapestStockIndexHungaryisacapitalizationweightedindexadjustedforfreefloattrackingdailypriceonlyperformanceoflarge,activelytradedsharesontheBudapest
StockExchange.
Borsa Istanbul100IndexTurkeyisacapitalizationweightedindexcomposedofNationalMarketcompaniesexceptinvestmenttrustsselectedonthebasisofpredeterminedcriteriadirectedforthe
companiestobeincludedintheindex.
FTSE/JSEAfricaTop40TradeableIndex"SouthAfrica"isacapitalizationweightedindex.Companiesincludedarethe40largestcompaniesbymarketcapitulationincludedintheFTSE/JSEAllSharesIndex.
TheStraitsTimesIndex(STI)"Singapore"ismaintainedbyFTSEisthemostgloballyrecognizedbenchmarkindexandmarketbarometerofSingaporecoversthe30largestandmostliquidcompanies
listedontheSingaporeexchange.
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Disclaimer
ImportantInformationRegardingThisReport
Thisreportwaspreparedasaprivatecommunicationtoclientsandwasnotintendedforpubliccirculation.Clientsmayauthorizedistributiontotheirconsultants
orotheragents.
Issueselectionprocessesandtoolsillustratedthroughoutthispresentationaresamplesandmaybemodifiedperiodically.Suchchartsarenottheonlytoolsused
bytheinvestmentteams,areextremelysophisticated,maynotalwaysproducetheintendedresultsandarenotintendedforusebynonprofessionals.
DoubleLinehasnoobligationtoproviderevisedassessmentsintheeventofchangedcircumstances.Whilewehavegatheredthisinformationfromsources
believedtobereliable,DoubleLinecannotguaranteetheaccuracyoftheinformationprovided.Securitiesdiscussedarenotrecommendationsandarepresented
asexamplesofissueselectionorportfoliomanagementprocesses.Theyhavebeenpickedforcomparisonorillustrationpurposesonly.Nosecuritypresented
withiniseitherofferedforsaleorpurchase.DoubleLinereservestherighttochangeitsinvestmentperspectiveandoutlook withoutnoticeasmarketconditions
dictateorasadditionalinformationbecomesavailable.ThismaterialmayincludestatementsthatconstituteforwardlookingstatementsundertheU.S.
securitieslaws.Forwardlookingstatementsinclude,amongotherthings,projections,estimates,andinformationaboutpossibleorfutureresultsrelatedtoa
clientsaccount,ormarketorregulatorydevelopments.
ImportantInformationRegardingRiskFactors
Investmentstrategiesmaynotachievethedesiredresultsduetoimplementationlag,othertimingfactors,portfoliomanagementdecisionmaking,economicor
marketconditionsorotherunanticipatedfactors.Theviewsandforecastsexpressedinthismaterialareasofthedateindicated,aresubjecttochangewithout
notice,maynotcometopassanddonotrepresentarecommendationorofferofanyparticularsecurity,strategy,orinvestment. Allinvestmentsinvolverisks.
PleaserequestacopyofDoubleLines FormADVPart2AtoreviewthematerialrisksinvolvedinDoubleLines strategies.Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeof
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DoubleLineseekstomaximizeinvestmentresultsconsistentwithourinterpretationofclientguidelinesandinvestmentmandate.WhileDoubleLineseeksto
maximizereturnsforourclientsconsistentwithguidelines,DoubleLinecannotguaranteethatDoubleLinewilloutperformaclient'sspecifiedbenchmark.
Additionally,thenatureofportfoliodiversificationimpliesthatcertainholdingsandsectorsinaclient'sportfoliomayberisinginpricewhileothersarefalling;or,
thatsomeissuesandsectorsareoutperformingwhileothersareunderperforming.Suchoutorunderperformancecanbetheresultofmanyfactors,suchasbut
notlimitedtoduration/interestrateexposure,yieldcurveexposure,bondsectorexposure,ornewsorrumorsspecifictoasinglename.
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Disclaimer
DoubleLineisanactivemanagerandwilladjustthecompositionofclientsportfoliosconsistentwithourinvestmentteamsjudgmentconcerningmarket
conditionsandanyparticularsecurity.TheconstructionofDoubleLineportfoliosmaydiffersubstantiallyfromtheconstruction ofanyofavarietyofbondmarket
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longperiods,DoubleLinesperformanceisproperlyassessedoverafullmultiyearmarketcycle.
ImportantInformationRegardingClientResponsibilities
Clientsarerequestedtocarefullyreviewallportfolioholdingsandstrategies,includingbycomparingthecustodialstatementtoanystatementsreceivedfrom
DoubleLine.ClientsshouldpromptlyinformDoubleLineofanypotentialorperceivedpolicyorguidelineinconsistencies.Inparticular,DoubleLineunderstands
thatguidelineenablinglanguageissubjecttointerpretationandDoubleLinestronglyencouragesclientstoexpressanycontrastinginterpretationassoonas
practical.ClientsarealsorequestedtonotifyDoubleLineofanyupdatestoClientsorganization,suchas(butnotlimitedto) addingaffiliates(includingbroker
dealeraffiliates),issuingadditionalsecurities,namechanges,mergersorotheralterationstoClientslegalstructure.
ISPDRBarclaysHighYieldBondETF(JNK)InvestmentObjective&Summary
TheinvestmentobjectiveoftheSPDRBarclaysHighYieldBondETFseekstoprovideinvestmentresultsthat,beforefeesandexpenses,correspondsgenerallytothe
priceandyieldperformanceoftheBarclaysHighYieldVeryLiquidIndex.TheETFinvestsinU.S.highyieldbonds.
TheBarclaysHighYieldVeryLiquidIndexisdesignedtomeasuretheperformanceofpubliclyissuedU.S.dollardenominatedhigh yieldcorporatebondswithabove
averageliquidity.Highyieldsecuritiesaregenerallyratedbelowinvestmentgradeandarecommonlyreferredtoas"junkbonds."TheIndexincludespubliclyissued
U.S.dollardenominated,noninvestmentgrade,fixedrate,taxablecorporatebondsthathavearemainingmaturityofatleastoneyear,regardlessofoptionality,are
ratedhighyield(Ba1/BB+/BB+orbelow)usingthemiddleratingofMoody'sInvestorsService,Inc.,FitchInc.,orStandard&Poor's,Inc.Respectively,andhave$500
millionormoreofoutstandingfacevalue.
ImportantRiskInformation Ingeneral,ETFscanbeexpectedtomoveupordowninvaluewiththevalueoftheapplicableindex.AlthoughETFsharesmaybe
boughtandsoldontheexchangethroughanybrokerageaccount,ETFsharesarenotindividuallyredeemablefromtheFund.InvestorsmayacquireETFsandtender
themforredemptionthroughtheFundinCreationUnitAggregationsonly.Pleaseseetheprospectusformoredetails.
Bondfundscontaininterestraterisk(asinterestratesrisebondpricesusuallyfall);theriskofissuerdefault;issuercreditrisk;liquidityrisk;andinflationrisk.
Investinginhighyieldfixedincomesecurities,otherwiseknownas"junkbonds"isconsideredspeculativeandinvolvesgreaterriskoflossofprincipalandinterest
thaninvestingininvestmentgradefixedincomesecurities.Theselowerqualitydebtsecuritiesinvolvegreaterriskofdefaultorpricechangeduetopotentialchanges
inthecreditqualityoftheissuer.
TheFundinvestsbysamplingtheIndex,holdingarangeofsecuritiesthat,intheaggregate,approximatesthefullIndexintermsofkeyriskfactorsandother
characteristicswhichmaycausethefundtoexperiencetrackingerrorsrelativetoperformanceoftheIndex.
Distributor:StateStreetGlobalMarkets,LLC,memberFINRA,SIPC,awhollyownedsubsidiaryofStateStreetCorporation.ReferencestoStateStreetmayinclude
StateStreetCorporationanditsaffiliates.CertainStateStreetaffiliatesprovideservicesandreceivefeesfromtheSPDRETFs.
Beforeinvesting,considerthefunds'investmentobjectives,risks,chargesandexpenses.Toobtainaprospectusorsummaryprospectuswhichcontainsthisand
otherinformation,call18667872257ortalktoyourfinancialadvisor.Readitcarefullybeforeinvesting.
JNKisdistributedbyStateStreetGlobalMarkets,LLC
DoubleLine GroupisnotaregisteredinvestmentadviserwiththeSecuritiesExchangeCommission(SEC).
DoubleLineisaregisteredtrademarkofDoubleLineCapitalLP.
2017DoubleLineCapital
11017JustMarkets89