NCICD Executive Summary

Version June, 2015

NCICD Executive Summary

1. Introduction
The purpose of this Executive Summary is to provide additional explanation and background to program
components, preconditions and important interfaces.
Rationale
The northern coastal area of the National Capital is prone to flooding. Floods from local rainfall and
rivers were always a threat; and since 2007, also floods from the sea occurred. The main reasons for this
situation are accelerated land subsidence, increased river runoff from upstream and heavy local rainfall
that cannot be accommodated in the existing drainage system. Badly needed additional water retention
in the coastal area is confronted with lack of space.
To remedy the above emergency situation, in 2012, JCDS 1 proposed an offshore dike system (Outer Sea
Wall) and water retention basin. This offshore protection and retention system would largely replace
the urban protection and retention measures, thus saving precious urban space. The NCICD 2 Master Plan
(Dec. 2014) elaborated the JCDS strategy into an integrated coastal development plan. A large land
reclamation plan was initiated in JCDS and developed in NCICD as an important financing instrument for
the large scale flood measures. This reclamation (The Great Garuda) is also a solution for the expanding
metropolis of Jakarta and provides a new transportation link between Tangerang and Bekasi. Both JCDS
and NCICD also propose other valuable measures like providing piped water supply and acceleration of
water sanitation. In parallel to NCICD, upstream measures are considered to control the increased
upstream river runoff towards the city. The NCICD team developed a provisional delivery and funding
strategy with substantial private sector involvement and without stretching the public financing system
too far.
NCICD is confronted with a critical timeline determined by the land subsidence pattern and pace;
between 10-15 years from now, North Jakarta has sunk so low below sea level that the current
protection and water retention system will have huge difficulties in safely discharging storm and river
water.
The NCICD Master Plan was developed with Northern Jakarta as the focus area, while taking into account
the broader context of Greater Jakarta and upstream conditions.
Program Objectives
1. To ensure sustainable and long term flood protection from the sea and associated river and
canal systems in North Jakarta
2. To restore ecological and hydrological balance in the coastal zone
3. To revitalize the urban coastal zone and improve the living environment of its communities
4. To provide economic development opportunities and improved connectivity offshore
1
2

JCDS: Jakarta Coastal Defense Strategy (finalized 2011), Ministry of Public Works,
NCICD: National Capital Integrated Coastal Development, Coordinating Ministry of Economic Development,

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5. To strengthen capacities for integrated program development and management

NCICD Main components (stages)
1. Stage A: strengthening the existing sea & river dikes (2014-2017)
2. Stage B: constructing the outer sea wall in the western part of Jakarta Bay (2018-2025)
3. Stage C: constructing the outer sea wall in the eastern part of Jakarta Bay (after 2025)

Three stages of NCICD

Since land subsidence is likely to continue for some time to come, NCICD stage A was started to
strengthen the current sea defence to maintain safety in north Jakarta for the short term.
Further detailing of the master plan regarding Stages B and C will be done over the next 2 years before
final implementation decisions have to be made in 2017, taking land subsidence developments, results
from surveys and updated business cases into consideration. It is essential to design NCICD in a flexible
way to allow accommodation of future developments.
The NCICD program components and most relevant sub components are represented in the diagram
below, including synchronization with preconditions (for stage B and C), upstream-downstream flood
control and mitigation measures, DKI 17 islands development etc.

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2. NCICD stage A
It is widely agreed by all stakeholders that implementation of Stage A is urgently needed to prevent
imminent flooding of Jakarta by the sea. All activities in stage A are therefore no-regret measures and
deserve the highest priority.
Completion is targeted by the end of 2017 while the (weakest) dike sections with the highest risk of
failure should be scheduled for early completion in 2016.
Realization of Stage A will be under management and supervision of Min. PUPR and DKI Jakarta. BBWS
CC and Dinas Tata Air of DKI Jakarta act as the implementing agencies on behalf of the National and
Regional Government.
Min. PUPR is responsible for design clearance in order to optimize and guarantee that the quality and
requirements for flood safety are met. DKI Jakarta is responsible for integration of urban/spatial needs
and needs of coastal communities (good access to sea) into the design.
The public dike segments with length 15,614 m (9,333 m DKI and 6,281 m West Java) will be funded from
the National and Regional budget based on a multi-year (2015-2017) budget. The private dike segments
with length 59,205 m will be realized by the 18 private owners in close coordination with DKI and Min.
PUPR, based on the approved NCICD design criteria and conceptual designs.

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Stage A dike alignment (part of central section)

3. NCICD stages B & C

NCICD stages B and C are considered equally urgent, but have a longer time frame as compared to stage
A. The decision making on preferred final design, funding & financing, and procurement for stage B and
C towards the end of 2017 needs to be well prepared. Decision making will have to take into account the
most recent projections on land subsidence (and implementation of subsidence mitigating measures),
results from surveys and the updated business cases. The Inter/Ministerial meeting held on December 9,
2014 concluded that a design, research and study program shall be prepared and executed to validate
The Master Plan for NCICD stages B & C and elaborate towards a basic (reference) design and alternative
options for the Implementation decision making.
Stage B & C Outer seawall and offshore basin

The timeframe of NCICD stages B and C is determined by the land subsidence pattern and pace. Based on
the assumption of a continuous average land subsidence of 7.5 cm annually, the western outer sea wall
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(stage B) should be closed between 2025 and 2030. Since construction of the OSW takes minimum 7-8
years , construction should start in 2018 and the final investment decision (go/no-go) has to be taken
towards the end of 2017.
The current master Plan requires coordinated design and plan elaboration of stages B&C, including
detailed funding, financing, investment and procurement plans. The program design shall provide for
maximum private sector investments and cross subsidization between viable and non-viable program
components. Alternative options and delivery models shall be elaborated in case the preferred design
and plan involves too many risks or undesirable side effects.
This process needs to be synchronized on the one hand with the Upstream-Downstream program and on
the other hand with the realization of the preconditions: water quality improvement and land
subsidence mitigation.
The process requires proactive and consistent communication and stakeholder consultation.
After endorsement of the basic design, the spatial plan shall be legally anchored in Perpres 54/2008 (by
Min. ATR) and in the Provincial RTRW of DKI Jakarta, Jawa Barat and Banten.

4. Pre-conditions
Water quality improvement and land subsidence mitigation are the most critical preconditions to be
realized in parallel to NCICD. At the same time these are classified as no regret measures and mega
projects by itself that shall be pursued in any scenario. Polluted water is not only an environmental
threat to the large offshore reservoir, but also for the many on-land rivers, canals and reservoirs.
Acceleration Plans for water quality improvement (by PD PAL Jaya) and piped water supply (PAM Jaya)
are in place but implementation and financing arrangements need to be substantially strengthened.
NCICD shall facilitate the respective implementation arrangements and will support acceleration by
providing supportive information on the positive (environmental) impact of these measures.
Recently an international roundtable meeting was held in Jakarta on land subsidence. Based on
international evidence, it was concluded that deep groundwater extraction is the main cause of
subsidence. There are an estimated 3,000 deep ground water wells in Jakarta, totally extracting more
than 50 million m3 of deep ground water per year. This includes governmental offices, both central and
regional government. A taskforce will be established to stop the groundwater extractions from the DKI
public buildings first. Meanwhile water supply to the city and water distribution within the city has to be
expanded with at least 1 million house connections.

5. Relation with Upstream-Downstream measures

The combined goal of NCICD and the Upstream-Downstream program is to get flooding in the National
Capital from rivers (upstream), from canals, and from the sea under control.
The Ministerial coordination meeting of December 9, 2014 concluded that NCICD shall be synchronized
with existing and additional upstream-downstream measures. A program of no regret upstreamdownstream measures is currently ongoing and is synchronized with NCICD. Severe downstream land
subsidence and increasing upstream river discharges (from 480 to 720 m3/s or more) urge us to

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formulate additional measures for water diversion and water retention to prevent the Capital from
flooding by heavy rainfall (local) or peak discharge from upstream rivers. The additional measures will be
planned and programmed under coordination of Min. PUPR in parallel to and in coordination with
NCICD.
NCICD stage A focuses on increasing flood risk from the sea caused by land subsidence, whereas the
Upstream-Downstream program deals with rising flood risk from increased river discharge. DKI and Min.
PUPR will be in charge to synchronize measures in the downstream area between NCICD stage A and
North Jakarta Polder development, pumping schemes and emergency dredging program. The two
programs will be programmed with interfaces and shall be synchronized periodically, but the
implementation will be done separately to avoid delay of decision making Fully merging these two
programs would make the project probably too big to manage.

Jakarta Polders in combination with NCICD stage A

6. The DKI 17 islands

The 17 islands program of DKI is formally not part of NCICD, however the areas are overlapping and the
two programs have important synergies. The 17 islands concessions do not have the purpose to protect
Jakarta from flooding by the sea.
NCICD will be closely coordinated with the DKI 17 islands development. Related to spatial planning,
NCICD and the 17 islands development shall be integrated whereas implementation of the two programs
comes under separate management.

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17 islands and the indicative transportation network (draft January 2015)

A percentage of the 17 islands developers profit will be applied as cross funding for public infrastructure
in North Jakarta (social housing, pumping stations and water retention ponds). The 17 islands will benefit
directly from water quality improvement in Jakarta Bay, justifying also cross funding towards water
quality improvement. A media strategy shall be prepared to better inform the public and stakeholders
about the differences of NCICD stage A, B and C and the 17 islands development.

7. NCICD Institutional setup

Given the complexity of the intended integrated
development, the Ministerial Coordination Meeting
of Dec. 9, 2014 concluded that a special Body shall
be established for the preparation of NCICD
implementation. It was also concluded that APBN/D
budget shall be prepared to cover the operational
costs and activities of the special Body.
In the NCICD Delivery strategy of December 2014,
the Authority was designed as a Development
Authority (Badan Pembangunan) consisting of a
Ministerial
level
Steering
Committee,
an
Implementing Body/Board (Badan Pelaksana) and a Development Company (State owned enterprise).
Given the extra time needed (2-3 years) for Design & Planning it is not yet possible to establish the
Development Company right now. The Development Authority will be established, initially with
taskforces managed by the Badan Pelaksana and assigned to deliver the required output of the Design &
Planning Phase. A growth model for the development of the Authority as an evolving organization will be
adopted.

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Outputs Design & Planning phase (stage B)

The Program organization will be formalized by Perpres. Given the long term horizon of the program a
higher and stronger legal basis needs to be prepared at a later stage. The Perpres defines the roles and
responsibilities of the program organization, mandate, human and budgetary resources, leadership and
key staff profiles.
Support for the next phase of NCICD from the Governments of The Netherlands and Korea is under
preparation.

8. Specific topics raised by stakeholders

Environmental Impact
Several environmental impacts were identified in the various meetings with stakeholders. Impacts often
mentioned are:

The loss of coastal habitats and transition to fresh water

Loss of mangroves
The poor water quality in the large reservoir after closing the sea wall

These impacts have been evaluated in a Strategic Environmental Assessment report In brief, the
outcome is that the NCICD project does have an environmental impact (as with any large project), but
that this is not on an unacceptable level. Considerations are, for instance, that the quality of the habitat
in the Bay of Jakarta is already so poor (due to the huge pollution load) that the loss is limited. Also
containing urban and industrial pollution in the large reservoir (after completion of the Outer Sea Wall),
would benefit the water quality in the Java Sea. The remaining mangroves are also of poor quality and
replanting them in cleaner habitats close to the project area is considered to be an acceptable mitigation
measure.
The water quality in the new fresh water reservoir will indeed be poor if no mitigating sanitation
measures will be taken. But this also holds for the existing rivers, canals and (existing and future)
onshore reservoirs. In any scenario, water quality needs to be improved to benefit the environment and
health of the residents.

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Social Impact
All of the three stages will have impacts on the coastal communities: upgrading the sea wall and river
embankments in Stage A for instance, will have to include relocation of residents living next to the sea
wall. Close coordination between civil engineering designing and urban planning is essential.
The creation of the Outer Sea Wall will close off fishing communities from direct access to the sea. This is
mitigated by the relocation of communities to the wing tips of the Great Garuda and construction of two
locks to maintain access to the current ports.
Economic Impact
The Oceanic fishing port of Nizam Zachman and and the Sunda Kelapa port will keep access to the sea via
the construction of two locks. Also relocation of fishing ports and communities to the Great Garuda is
part of NCICD. In the next phase, relocation of power plants, and relocation of cables and pipelines will
be worked out.
Legal requirements
There is a whole list of legislation that NCICD needs to comply with. A list of required permits, licenses
and permissions (with potential relevant project compliance issues) will be drafted to ensure that no
legal procedure is missed or will cause delay during implementation. This list is the input for meetings
with permitting authorities.
National Knowledge base
The national knowledge base relevant for NCICD is weak and fragmented. Institutions could hardly been
involved so far and that creates resentment. Under the knowledge management component adequate
representation and involvement/bundling of Indonesian research institutions is required. That goes for
sector institutions like PUSAIR and Litbang KKP, but also for BPPT and Menristek who may coordinate
inputs from academic institutions (ITB, Gaja Mada, IPB etc.)

9. Conclusions & recommendations

NCICD is required in conjunction with the proposed upstream/downstream measures to resolve the
flood problem of Jakarta. NCICD is also conceived as an integrated development with multiple objectives
in land reclamation, environmental restoration, urban revitalization, improved connectivity and
industrial area development.
Stage A is required as a matter of emergency when flood safety is concerned. Stage B and somewhat
later Stage C will also be required but can still be detailed further related to the effectiveness of the on
land interventions. In the most optimistic scenario with regards to stopping land subsidence, the outer
sea wall may not need to be closed. In the most pessimistic scenario Northern Jakarta has no other
option than smart evacuation. A realistic scenario is based on a gradual slowdown of the land subsidence
which will require an outer sea wall that can be closed at any time needed. Detailing the design over the
next few years should accommodate this flexibility.
The overall road map up to 2020 and beyond is shown below. The investment decision for stage B&C is
planned end of 2017 to enable start of investment and construction program of stage B in 2018.

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Road Map NCICD implementation in relation with key pre-conditions

10.

Next steps

Large, complex projects such as NCICD with substantial risks and huge budgets can only be managed by
dedicated organisations staffed by the best experts available in the world. One of the important aspects
in NCICD is preparing contracts with international investors. These investors are well equipped with the
best available financial and legal advisors. To create a level playing field, the Government of Indonesia
should be able to counteract this with an equally competent organisation and staff.
The creation of a Special Body is a first step towards this competent, dedicated organisation. This Body
will organise the technical, financial, legal and institutional elaboration of the NCICD Master Plan.
At the end of 2017 this should lead to an elaborated proposal for a final go/no-go or Final Investment
Decision (FID).

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