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deciding to exit the EU. As economists predicted, the Leave vote is causing
economic turmoil. As the result came in, the value of the British pound fell
by 10 percent to $1.35, its lowest level against the dollar since 1985. Stock
markets around the world fell in Friday trading. The vote spooked financial
markets because the British economy has become deeply intertwined with
the European continent. Negotiating Britains withdrawal could be a messy,
complex process, and the new post-withdrawal rules might make it harder to
do business between the UK and the EU threatening Londons status as
the financial capital of Europe. Brexit could also create big headaches for
people moving between Britain and the continent. EU rules guarantee that
EU citizens of one country can live and work in any other EU country. There
are about 3 million non-British EU nationals living in the UK and about 1.2
million Brits living in other EU countries. At a minimum, Brexit will mean
more paperwork and hassles and some people could even lose their right
to live in the UK and thus be deported. But it will take years for the
implications to become clear. David Cameron announced his resignation on
Friday morning, so his successor will have to lead negotiations with the EU
over the terms of the post-exit relationship. The leading candidate is Boris
Johnson, a more conservative and Euroskeptical figure than Cameron. EU
rules specify that these parties will have a two-year window in which to
negotiate new agreements to replace existing EU rules. Those rules cover
trade, migration, agriculture, the environment, and more. So negotiations
could drag on for years. And uncertainty about the outcome will loom over
the British economy. The UK government has estimated that exit could cause
the British economy to be between 3.8 and 7.5 percent smaller by 2030
depending on how well negotiations go. Other reports have found smaller but
still significant impacts.
developments this regard, also to initiate focused bilateral discussion with the
UK to find alternative way outs and avoid unforeseen /
unanticipated/anecdotical economic menace. DCCI also urged the
government to form a national committee comprising representatives of trade
bodies, trade experts, international trade law practitioners, economists,
researchers, and representatives from concerned ministries and agencies to
observe and report the findings to the government on post-Brexit global
economic order. (Info compiled from The Sun,The Dhaka Tribune,The Daily
Star)
policy makers and think tanks of Bangladesh will get sufficient time at their
disposal to prepare rules of origins and other relevant formalities to maintain
the UK market.
Our export target for FY 2015-16 is US$ 33.50 billion. If everything goes on
right, Bangladesh will surely achieve the target comfortably. We are
certainly aware that without retaining the existing market and exploring the
new ones, the target of achieving US $ 60 billion by 2021 will turn out to be
a misnomer.
Considering all the issues, we should prepare ourselves to overcome all the
challenges ahead arising out of UK's exit from EU.
Exit of the United Kingdom form the European Union (EU) might have
impact on Bangladeshs economic growth, the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce
and Industry (DCCI) said in a statement on Saturday.
The business body in the statement said the decision of Brexit from EU
apparently emits deep global uncertainty, hurting the attractiveness and
growth prospect of the EU as well as heightening global trade, business and
investment volatility, UNB reports.
Apparently, the decision is going to emerge as a new geo-political and geoeconomic epoch throughout the globe, it said.
The EU is the largest export market and the UK is the second largest
Bangladesh-bound foreign investor and export destination for Bangladesh,
worth $3.4 billion, the statement noted.
The jolt from the Brexit may affect Bangladesh, undermining the export
growth potential under GSP facility and remittance earning and spill
catastrophic impact on the bilateral trade and investment relationship above
all growing development cooperation for Bangladesh, it added.
DCCI urged the government to immediately take into account the possible
consequences and take precautionary measures to deal with the
developments this regard, also to initiate focused bilateral discussion with the
UK to find alternative way outs and avoid unforeseen economic menace.
As Britain chose to leave the EU, economists and exporters said it would be
a major challenge for Bangladesh to retain duty-free trade privilege of its
goods to the UK.
Because of Brexit, the whole EU as well as the UK would face an economic
crisis. As a result, people would buy less and the exporting countries would
feel the pinch, said Faruque Hassan, vice president of Bangladesh Garment
Manufacturers and Exporters Association.
He said once the UK leaves the EU, it would no longer depend on the EU for
crucial decisions. In such a case, the trade privilege may be reduced, as there
would be no partner to oppose the decisions.
The UK is not only an export destination. Many international companies are
headquartered there. This country is very important to us. The UK matters
greatly in the future plan for expansion of our export basket in terms of value
and volume, added Hassan.
Among western economies, the UK is the second biggest source of
remittance for Bangladesh after the US. Migrant workers living in the UK
send $1 billion in remittance every year, contributing greatly to Bangladesh's
remittance income of more than $15 billion.
Because of the plunge in the pound, migrant workers and non-resident
Bangladeshis may postpone sending money back home until the currency
revives, said Zahid.
The plunge may hit Bangladeshi exporters, as purchase of goods or services
by the UK from other countries will be more expensive.
Yesterday, the pound fell dramatically as the referendum outcome emerged.
At one stage, it hit $1.3236, a fall of more than 10 percent and a low not seen
since 1985.
Zahid said Brexit could be contagious and provoke other EU countries to
leave the bloc. And if that happened, Europe would be weakened further.
Brexit could spur a tariff war among countries as they may seek to raise
customs and other duties to protect their domestic industries. If all countries
impose import tariffs, the global trade would squeeze. If the global trade
squeezes, it will affect our economy, he said.
Ahsan H Mansur, executive director of the Policy Research Institute of
Bangladesh, said that as a way forward, the Bangladesh government should
start lobbying with the British government to retain the duty benefit
Bangladesh enjoys from the EU.
He said Bangladesh's export to the UK would continue to grow because of
the big number of non-resident Bangladeshis. But we have to ensure dutyfree market access.
His comments were backed by Zahid of the World Bank.
Exporters said if the UK continues to give Bangladesh duty-free benefit even
after its exit from the EU, Bangladesh wouldn't face any challenge in terms
of export.
Being a least developed country, Bangladesh has been enjoying the zero-duty
benefit since 1971 under Everything But Arms scheme of the EU, a trade
bloc of 28 European nations.
The EU is the largest export trade bloc for Bangladesh.
Bangladesh was able to reach its current position of the second largest
apparel exporter worldwide due to EU's generous trade benefits since 1971.
Bangladesh now enjoys a 12.5 percent duty benefit, which means
Bangladeshi exporters don't have to pay any duty on export to this trade bloc.
But if the UK discontinues the benefit, Bangladesh will lose its
competitiveness to other competitors, said Ahsan.
The UK is a good destination not only for apparel, but also for fresh
vegetables and agro-products because of the significant number of
Bangladeshis residing in the UK.
Export of jackfruits and mangoes has risen recently. Other items high in
demand are carrot, tomato, potato, eggplant, spinach, cauliflower, papaya,
pumpkin, bottle gourd, cabbage, coriander leaf, okra, cucumber, bitter gourd,
bean, jute leaf, drumstick, radish, fish and meat. Local companies also export
agro-processed food to the UK.
Bangladesh exports fruits and vegetables worth more than Tk 400 crore to
the UK a year. Nearly 40 percent of the country's total export of vegetables,
fruits and allied products a year is destined for the UK.
Garment shipments to the EU increased by 4.11 percent year-on-year to
$15.37 billion last fiscal year, according to the EPB.
At present, the 28-nation economic union accounts for 60.28 percent of the
country's garment exports a year.
In Europe, Germany was the prime destination, as in previous years,
accounting for $4.33 billion of the $15.37 billion export receipts.
The UK came in next, importing garment items worth $2.9 billion from
Bangladesh.
According to a note by London-based research firm Capital Economics,
Brexit would cause at most a GDP drop of 0.2 percent across Asia.
The finding is based on a worst-case scenario estimate by London-based
think tank National Institute of Economic and Social Research, which said
Brexit would reduce British imports by 25 percent worldwide within two
years.
Exports to the UK presently account for only 0.7 percent of Asian countries'
GDP, said Capital Economics.
According to experts, it will take the UK at least two years -- if not more -- to
sort out the historic exit from the 28-country bloc.
British exit from the European Union could have a negative impact on
developing countries across the globe. Brexit is one of the biggest risks to
lower and middle income nations since the UKs economic grounding has a
direct impact on stability around the world. The gap between global
commodity imports and commodity exports, which have grown by 6% and
0% this year respectively, could get much worse as Britain leaves the EU.
And uncertainty in global capital markets is bad for the world economy. On
the other hand, the stability of the British economy is really important for the
stability of the global economy and also uncertainty in global capital markets
have very negative effects even on the poorest countries. It is time that
Bangladesh makes serious homework on ramifications of the Brexit and does
the needful.
DCCI also fears that Brexit will adversely upset and affect the global
financial and capital market depreciating Pound Sterling against major
dominating currencies. Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling fall by 10% against
the dollar and euro plunged by 3% which cant guarantee immunity to
Bangladesh.
Potential thwart of purchasing power slump of EU zone customers and
devaluation shock of pound and euro will adversely hit incremental export
business and earning of Bangladesh especially flagship of RMG sector given
that EU accounts for 55 percent and UK accounts for 12% of global RMG
export of Bangladesh and other potential exportable products in the pipeline.
The plunge will also downsize remittance flow and FDI inflow in
Bangladesh. In addition, $50 Billion RMG export target earning backed
export led economic graduation may dwindle.
In the wake of the newly emerged context, DCCI requests the government to
immediately take into account the possible consequences and precautionary
measures to deal with the changing development initiating focused bilateral
discussion with foreign office of UK and UKTI to find alternative way-outs
and avoid unforeseen economic menace.
DCCI also solicits government to form a national committee comprising of
trade bodies, trade expert, international trade law practitioner, economist,
researcher, and representative from concerned ministries and agencies to
observe and report findings to the government on post BREXIT global
economic order.