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FINANCIAL BACKING
GLOBAL INTEREST
SHIPPING OUT
SELLING OUT
READY TO BUILD
RETAIL VALUE
Video
The Ecosystem
Virtual Reality / Augmented Reality
Processors
3D Audio
TI
Wolfson
Realtek
Headmounted devices
Memory
(DRAM/SSD)
TI
Qualcomm
STMicro
Realtek
Himax
MediaTek
Intel
Applications
Graphics
Nvidia
AMD
Qualcomm
Augmented Reality
Virtual Reality
Microsoft HoloLens
Google Glass
Magic Leap
Atheer
Osterhout Design
Group
Jaunt
NextVR
VRSE
Oculus Story Studio
GoPro
IG Port
Games
Sony
Ubisoft
CCP Games
Oculus Story Studio
Tammeka Games
Pixel Titans
Capcom
Engineering
Facebook Oculus
Samsung Gear VR
Google Cardboard
HTC Vive
Sony PSVR
Vuzix iWear
VR Union Claire
Autodesk
Dassault Systmes
IrisVR
Visidraft
MakeVR
Healthcare
Micron
Samsung
SK Hynix
Toshiba
Psious
zSpace
Conquer Mobile
3D Systems
Social
Altspace VR
High Fidelity
Podrift
Commerce
Sixense {shopping}
Matterport {real estate}
Display
Cameras
360Heros
GoPro Odyssey
Nokia OZO
Jaunt NEO
Matterport Pro 3D
3D Lenses
Components
Haptics
Alps
AAC
Nidec
Samsung
JDI
Himax
Crystal
Wearality
Zeiss
Canon
Nikon
Largan
Hon Hai
Pegatron
Flex
Jabil
HTC
Motion Sensors
Leap Motion
InvenSense
TI
STMicro
Honeywell
The Ecosystem
Virtual Reality / Augmented Reality
SOFTWARE
$35bn
HARDWARE
$45bn
LIVE EVENTS
$4.1bn
Estimated users: 95mn
Markets disrupted: live ticket sales
VIDEO ENTERTAINMENT
$3.2bn
Estimated users: 79mn
Markets disrupted: online streaming
RETAIL
$1.6bn
Estimated users: 32mn
Markets disrupted: e-commerce
REAL ESTATE
$2.6bn
Estimated users: 0.3mn
Markets disrupted: commissions
EDUCATION
$0.7bn
Estimated users: 15mn
Markets disrupted: K-12 and higher-ed software
HEALTHCARE
$5.1bn
Estimated users: 3.4mn
Markets disrupted: patient monitoring
MILITARY
$1.4bn
Estimated users: 0.7mn
Markets disrupted: defense training and simulation
ENGINEERING
$4.7bn
Estimated users: 3.2mn
Markets disrupted: CAD/CAM software
Americas: Technology
800,000
500,000
400,000
Accelerated
uptake
300,000
Tablet shipments
from 2010-2016E
200,000
Base case
100,000
Delayed
uptake
250
Tablet PC
$63bn
200
Accelerated uptake
Tablet shipments
TV
$99bn
Notebook PC
$111bn
150
Base Case
$45bn
100
Game Console
$14bn
Desktop PC
$62bn
Delayed Uptake
$15bn
50
2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Base case
Delayed uptake
Smartphone shipments
Accelerated
Uptake
$110bn
300
Smartphone shipments
from 2004-2012
600,000
700,000
0
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
ASP ($)
$600
$700
$200bn
$800
$900
Military, $1.4bn
$180bn
Engineering,
$4.7bn
$160bn
$72bn
$140bn
Videogames,
$11.6bn
$120bn
$100bn
Healthcare, $5.1bn
$80bn
$60bn
$35bn
$110bn
$40bn
$8bn
$45bn
$20bn
Education, $0.7bn
$15bn
$0bn
Accelerated uptake
Base case
Hardware
Delayed uptake
Retail, $1.6bn
Software
Video
entertainment,
$3.2bn
$90.0
$3,500
$80.0
$3,000
$70.0
$2,500
Revenue ($bns)
$60.0
$50.0
$2,000
Desktop ASP
Notebook ASP
$40.0
Tablet PC ASP
$1,500
Smartphone ASP
$30.0
LCD-TV ASP
$1,000
$20.0
$10.0
$500
$0.0
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
2021E
2022E
2023E
2024E
2025E
1999
2004
2009
2014
1,500,000
100%
500,000
90%
450,000
80%
400,000
70%
60%
50%
1,000,000
40%
30%
500,000
350,000
100%
90%
80%
70%
300,000
60%
250,000
50%
200,000
40%
150,000
30%
100,000
20%
50,000
10%
20%
10%
0%
0%
2010
Smartphones
Feature phones
Tablets
2011
2012
Notebooks
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
% tablet penetration
2,000,000
% smartphone penetration
2,500,000
Americas: Technology
Exhibit 11: VR/AR HMD market has the potential of reach over $100bn annually by 2025
350
Accelerated
Uptake
$110bn
300
250
Tablet PC
$63bn
200
TV
$99bn
Notebook PC
$111bn
150
Base Case
$45bn
100
Game Console
$14bn
50
Desktop PC
$62bn
Delayed Uptake
$15bn
0
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
ASP ($)
$600
$700
$800
$900
The following chart lays out our base case, accelerated uptake case, and delayed uptake
case for VR/AR shipments and overlays the adoption curve for smartphones (starting in
2004) and tablets (starting in 2010).
Exhibit 12: Our VR/AR shipment assumptions vs. the smartphone and tablet ramps
800,000
700,000
Smartphone shipments
from 2004-2012
600,000
500,000
400,000
Accelerated
uptake
300,000
200,000
Base case
Tablet shipments
from 2010-2016E
100,000
Delayed uptake
0
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
2021E
2022E
Base case
Accelerated uptake
Tablet shipments
Smartphone shipments
2023E
2024E
2025E
Delayed uptake
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Gartner for tablet shipment data
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