Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Mercado
con Inventario
Curso 2003 - 04
Equilibrio
Equilibrio en
en el
el mercado
mercado de
de productos
productos agrcolas
agrcolas
Ptomate
Otomate
P1
P3
Pe
P2
P0
Dtomate
QQ
0 2Qe Q1
Qtomate
Ajuste Convergente
3
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
Equilibrio
Equilibrio en
enel
elmercado
mercadode
de productos
productosagrcolas
agrcolas
Ptomate
Otomate
P3
P1
Pe
P0
P2
Dtomate
Q2 Q0 Qe
Q1 Q3
Qtomate
Ajuste Explosivo
Curso 2003 - 04
Sin embargo, las cosas no son tan simples como las explica el
modelo: los agricultores se pueden adelantar y producir ms en
los aos precedidos por aos malos y producir menos en los aos
precedidos por aos buenos.
Es evidente que si son muchos los que advierten este fenmeno,
convendr producir ms en los aos precedidos por aos buenos.
El concepto de equilibrio dinmico (con retardos) explicado por el
modelo de la telaraa, demuestra, con mayor o menos exactitud, lo
que ocurre en el mercado de gran parte de los productos agrcolas.
De hecho, los estudios empricos sobre la oferta de productos
agrcolas incluyen el concepto de precio esperado por el agricultor
para su cosecha.
El caso de la telaraa no es un anlisis esttico de mercado como
hemos analizado normalmente: responde a un anlisis dinmico
que nos permite explicar una cierta regularidad en los cambios de
precios agrcolas.
Hiptesis
La oferta en cada periodo (O t) depende, no del precio que se tiene
en el mercado durante el mismo periodo, sino del precio que se
tena en el periodo anterior Pt-1.
Formulacin matemtica
Qdt = Qst
Qdt = a bPt
Qst = -c + dPt-1
(a, b > 0)
(c, d > 0)
5
Curso 2003 - 04
Curso 2003 - 04
Formulacin matemtica
Qdt = Qst
Qdt = a - bPt
Qst = -c + dPt
Pt+1 = Pt - (Qst Qdt)
(a, b > 0)
(c, d > 0)
( > 0)
Curso 2003 - 04
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1er Mtodo
RSolve P t +1 -
1 - s d +b
FullSimplify
a +c - 1 P t
1-
s a +c , P t , t
s t
a +c - b +d C 1
b +d
a +c - 1 - b +d s t a +c - b +d C 1
b +d
Collect
a +c
b +d
b +d
P t
b +d
s t -
a - c +b C 1
b +d
+d C
, 1 - b +d s
2 Mtodo
Solucin general de la homognea. Ecuacin caracterstica.
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Solve r -
1 - s d +b
r 1- b s
ds
GH t_ = C 1 - b s - d s
C 1- b s
0, r
ds
Solucin particular
P t_ = A
A
P t +1 A- A 1 -
1 - s d +b
b +d
P t
SolveAlways P t +1 a A b- c + A d ,
c +a
A=
b +d
a +c
b +d
1 - s d +b
P t
== s a +c , t
8
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
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GC t = GH t +P t
a +c
+C 1 - b s - d s
b +d
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P t +1 -
RSolve
1 - s b +d
P 0 po , P t , t
P t
s a +c ,
P t
FullSimplify
a + c - a + c - 2 d po
2d
1- 2 d s
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2) b = -d
RSolve
P t +1 -
1 - s b +d
P 0 po , P t , t
P t po + a + c t s
s a +c ,
P t
FullSimplify
3) b d
RSolve
P t +1 -
1 - s b +d
P 0 po , P t , t
P t po + a + c t s
P t
s a +c ,
FullSimplify
(a, b > 0)
(c, d > 0)
P*t = Pt-1
Pt+1 Pt(1-b) + dPt-1 = (a+c)
9
Curso 2003 - 04
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Resolucin
RSolve P t +1 - P t
1 - s b + s d P t - 1 s a +c , P t , t
FullSimplify
P t
If t
1,
4 b +d
1- b s
1
2
-
1 +b s
4 + 2- t
2ds
1 +b s
4ds
+ -
2 + 2- t
1- b s
4ds
-
4ds
1+ b s
2ds
+ -
1 +b s
4ds
+ -
1 +b s
1
2
4ds
+ -
1 +b s
+ -
1+ b s
4ds
+ -
1 +b s
4ds
1 +b s
C 1
+2 C
4ds
+ -
1+b s
1 +b s
1+ b s
1 +b s
2+t
1+t
4ds +
1 +b s
1 +b s
1+t
4ds
+2 d s +
+ -
1+t
1 +b s
C 2
,0
bs C 2
+ -
+ -
1 +b s
1 +b s
+ -
1- bs
4ds
1- bs +
+2 d s +
+ -
+ -
1 +b s
4ds
4ds
+ -
4ds
+2 d s +
1- bs
1- b s
4ds
+ -
2ds
C 2
4 + 2- 1- t 1 - b s
1- bs
1- b s
4ds
-
+ -
as
1 +b s
cs
+C
C 2
+b s
- Goodwin
10
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
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Resolucin
RSolve P t +1 - P t
1- s b + s dP t- 1
1+ k - s d k P t - 2
s a +c , P t , t
P t
If
a s +c s
-
C 1
1 + t 0, Root
1 ^
Root
Root
bs C 2
ds C 3
1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #1
3+ 2 +t
,0
dks C 3
b + d +d
b + d Root
dk
2
+ 2 d s Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #1 d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 1 + 2 d k s Root
2
2
3
- 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #1 - d k s #1 + d k s #1 &, 1 - 3 d k s
2
Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #12 - d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 1
2
2
3
- 1 + t 0, Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #1 - d k s #1 + d k s #1 &,
-
If
+C
1 +b s
2 ^ - - 3+ 2 + t
, 0 b +d +
d Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #12 - d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 2
2
Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #12 - d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 2
dk
dk
11
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
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Root
b + d Root
1+
b s + 2 d s Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #1 - d k s #1 + d k s #1 &, 3
2 d k s Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #12 - d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 3 2
3 d k s Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #12 - d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 3
If
1 + t 0, Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #1 - b s #1 + d s #1 + d k s #1
d s #13 - 2 d k s #13 + d k s #14 &, 1 ^ - - 3 + 2 + t
,0
2
2
2
2
- b Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #1 - b s #1 + d s #1 + d k s #1 d s #13 - 2 d k s #13 + d k s #14 &, 1 d Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #12 - b s #12 + d s #12 + d k s #12 d s #13 - 2 d k s #13 + d k s #14 &, 1 ^2 d k Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #12 - b s #12 + d s #12 + d k s #12 d s #13 - 2 d k s #13 + d k s #14 &, 1 ^2 +
d k Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #12 - b s #12 + d s #12 + d k s #12 d s #13 - 2 d k s #13 + d k s #14 &, 1 ^3
-
12
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
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13
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
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b + d Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #1 - b s #1 + d s #1 +
d k s #12 - d s #13 - 2 d k s #13 + d k s #14 &, 2
1 - Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #12 - b s #12 + d s #12 + d k s #12 d s #13 - 2 d k s #13 + d k s #14 &, 2 +
2
2
2
2
s b Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #1 - b s #1 + d s #1 + d k s #1 d s #13 - 2 d k s #13 + d k s #14 &, 2 +
d Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #12 - b s #12 + d s #12 + d k s #12 d s #13 - 2 d k s #13 + d k s #14 &, 2 ^2 +
d k Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #12 - b s #12 + d s #12 + d k s #12 d s #13 - 2 d k s #13 + d k s #14 &, 2 ^2 d k Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #12 - b s #12 + d s #12 + d k s #12 d s #13 - 2 d k s #13 + d k s #14 &, 2 ^3 +
2
2
2
2
- 1 + Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #1 - b s #1 + d s #1 + d k s #1 d s #13 - 2 d k s #13 + d k s #14 &, 2
2
2
2
- 1 + s b + 2 d Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #1 - b s #1 + d s #1 +
d k s #12 - d s #13 - 2 d k s #13 + d k s #14 &, 2 +
2 d k Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #12 - b s #12 + d s #12 +
d k s #12 - d s #13 - 2 d k s #13 + d k s #14 &, 2 3 d k Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #12 - b s #12 + d s #12 +
d k s #12 - d s #13 - 2 d k s #13 + d k s #14 &, 2 ^2
If - 1 + t 0, Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #12 - b s #12 + d s #12 +
d k s #12 - d s #13 - 2 d k s #13 + d k s #14 &,
3 ^ - - 3+ 2 + t
,0
2
2
2
2
- b Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #1 - b s #1 + d s #1 + d k s #1 d s #13 - 2 d k s #13 + d k s #14 &, 3 d Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #12 - b s #12 + d s #12 + d k s #12 d s #13 - 2 d k s #13 + d k s #14 &, 3 ^2 d k Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #12 - b s #12 + d s #12 +
14
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
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15
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
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16
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
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d s C 3 +d k s C 3
- If t 0, Root
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2 + 2+ t
,0
b + d + d Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #12 - d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 1
-
d k Root
b + d Root
1 +b s
If t 0, Root
2 + 2+ t
,0
b + d + d Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #12 - d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 2
-
d k Root
1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #1
2
- 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #1 -
b + d Root
- 1 + b s + 2 d s Root
d k s #1
+ d k s #1 &, 2
2
d k s #1 + d k s #13 &, 2
1 + #1 -
17
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
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#1 &, 3 ^
2 + 2+ t
,0
b + d + d Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #12 - d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 3
-
d k Root
b + d Root
1+
b s + 2 d s Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #1 - d k s #1 + d k s #1 &, 3
2 d k s Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #12 - d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 3 2
3 d k s Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #12 - d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 3
2
18
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
19
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
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20
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
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21
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
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22
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
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23
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
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Root
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b + d Root
1+
b s + 2 d s Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #1 - d k s #1 + d k s #1 &, 1
2 d k s Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #12 - d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 1 2
3 d k s Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #12 - d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 1
If 1 + t 0, Root
1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #1
d k s #1
+d k s
d k Root
#1 &, 2 ^
2
- 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #1 -
d k s #1
+ d k s #1 &, 2
b + d Root
d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 2 - 1 +
b s + 2 d s Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #12 - d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 2 +
2 d k s Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #12 - d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 2 2
3 d k s Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #12 - d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 2
2
2
3
If 1 + t 0, Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #1 - d k s #1 + d k s #1 &, 3 ^
-
1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #1
1 + 2+ t
,0
b + d + d Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #12 - d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 2
-
1 + 2+t
,0
b + d + d Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #12 - d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 3
-
d k Root
1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #1
d k s #1
+d k s
#1 &, 3
24
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
IHL@
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b + d Root
1 +b s
2 d s Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #1 - d k s #1 + d k s #1 &, 3 +
2 d k s Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #12 - d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 3 2
3 d k s Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #12 - d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 3
25
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
D
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26
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
27
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
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28
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- 2+t
b + d + d Root
1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #1
d k s #1
+d k s
#1 &, 1
d k Root
b + d Root
1 +b s
+2 d s
,0
Root
If 2 + t 0,
Root
- 2+t
b + d + d Root
d k Root
1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #1
2
1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #1
2
- 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #1 -
d k s #1
+d k s
#1 &, 2
d k s #1
,0
+ d k s #1 &, 2
2
d k s #1 + d k s #13 &, 2
b + d Root
- 1 + b s +2 d s
Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #12 - d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 2 + 2 d k s
Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #12 - d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 2 - 3 d k s
2
Root - 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #12 - d k s #12 + d k s #13 &, 2
- If 2 + t 0,
Root
b + d + d Root
d k Root
b + d Root
1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #1
d k s #1
+d k s
- 2+t
,0
#1 &, 3
1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #12 -
29
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
D
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D
M
M
H@ @ D
H
H
L
L
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1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #1 - d k s #1 + d k s #1 &, 3
2
2
3
- 1 + #1 - b s #1 - d s #1 - d k s #1 + d k s #1 &, 3
-
If 2 + t 0, Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #1 - b s #1 + d s #1 + d k s #1
d s #13 - 2 d k s #13 + d k s #14 &, 1 ^ - 2 + t , 0
2
2
2
2
- b Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #1 - b s #1 + d s #1 + d k s #1 d s #13 - 2 d k s #13 + d k s #14 &, 1 d Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #12 - b s #12 + d s #12 + d k s #12 d s #13 - 2 d k s #13 + d k s #14 &, 1 ^2 d k Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #12 - b s #12 + d s #12 + d k s #12 d s #13 - 2 d k s #13 + d k s #14 &, 1 ^2 +
d k Root 1 - 2 #1 + b s #1 + #12 - b s #12 + d s #12 + d k s #12 d s #13 - 2 d k s #13 + d k s #14 &, 1 ^3
30
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
D
L
L
L
L
H@ @ D
H
H
L
L
D
H@
D
@
31
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
D
@
D
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D
L
L
H
HL@ D
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D
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Curso 2003 - 04
32
H@
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HH @
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D
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D
L
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D
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D
D
D
D @
33
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
D @
D
L
H@
D
L
HH @
D
@
D
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@
H
L
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D
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L
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D
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D>
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Resolucin
RSolve b +d P t - c +a , P t , t
P t
FullSimplify
a +c
b +d
- Cobweb
34
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
Resolucin
RSolve b P t
hP t 1
g , P t , t
FullSimplify
P t
If
1 t
t 1,
b1
t c g b h1 t C
1
b h
h1 t c g h C
,0
CONVERGENCIA
El modelo de Mercado con Inventario se trata de una E.D.F. de
primer orden con coeficientes constantes, por tanto, para analizar
la convergencia de ste procederemos de la siguiente forma:
Sabemos que:
Yt+1 aYt = Qt (t 0, a 0)
Sabemos que la solucin general es:
Yt, GC = Yt,GH + Yt,PC = Cat + Yt,PC
La E.D.F. es estable lim
(t )
Yt,GH = 0, C |a|<1.
35
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
@
@
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L@
DHL@
DD
D
L>
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D HHLLHHL@
>
D
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L
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HL
RSolve P t +1 -
1 - s d +b
P t
s a +c , P t , t
FullSimplify
P t
Collect
a +c
b +d
a +c - 1 -
b +d
s t
a +c - b +d C 1
b +d
a +c - 1 - b +d s t a +c - b +d C 1
b +d
1-
b +d
s t -
a - c +b C 1
b +d
+d C
, 1 - b +d s
36
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04
BIBLIOGRAFA
Matemticas para economistas. Edward T. Dowling. Ed. Mc Graw
Hill.
Anlisis discreto en Economa y Empresa. Ed.AC. Concepcin
Gonzlez y Javier A. Barrios.
Mtodos Fundamentales de Economa Matemtica.
Alpha Chiang. Ed. Mc Graw Hill.
37
Regina Diguez Pereda
Curso 2003 - 04