Decline-curve Analysis

By

HENRY EMMETT GROSS,

MEMBER A.I.M.E.

(San Antonio Meeting, October, 1938)

ABSTRACTt

Two types of decline curves are considered and their applications are
discussed. The first is the well-known semilogarithmic decline. curve
having the rate of production plotted on the logarithmic scale and the
time on the horizontal scale. The other curve is the percentage of oil
in the fluid versus cumulative production, and it is plotted on Cartesian
coordinate paper. These curves are illustrated by carefully and adequately labeled graphs. Where conditions permit application of both
types of curves for rationally determining the reserves of a well, both
should be applied and the most conservative reserve should be chosen.
Formulas are given for determining the economic limits. For a semilogarithmic decline curve the formula is:

A=BXCXDXEXFMB=CXD~EXF
A = total monthly operating cost (average of past year),
B = economic limit in barrels of oil per day,
C = days in an average month = 3004,
D = market price of crude per barrel,
E = I-royalty,
F = 1-gross production tax,
G = water production in barrels per day at the economic limit,
H =per cent oil in fluid at economic limit.
The economic limit for a per cent oil in the fluid curve is:
H = B

+ G X 100

The semilogarithmic decline curve is treated first. Straight-line extrapolations on semilogarithmic paper follow the compound interest compound discount law, hence the ensuing formulas derived from this law
may be used in computing reserves for such extrapolations:
8 =

(I--,-!~y

=--:...[

[_a-----.:.(---:;1;,---::-Y,---=,)
n]

)--=-=.]

[ 1 - (1

! y)]

* Associate Professor of Petroleum Engineering, Agricultural and Mechanical

College of Texas, College Station, Texas.
t Paper publishad in Oil and Gas Journal (Sept. 15, 1938) 37, No. 18,55.
101

102

ABSTRACTS

a - 1
y

s= - s =

l-a
log (all) ]
1 - log-l [

l-a
1 - (all) 1/,.

,,---,.----;=-=--:-

and the number of months of future life may be found by:

log a - log 1
log (all)
n = log (s + a - l) - log s = '""""lo-g~(l::-'---7+-<'y'")
in which:
a = bbl~ per month at present,
1 = bbl. per month at economic limit,

y = per cent decline per month expressed as a decimal,

n = number of months future life,

s = future production or reserves.

These formulas were developed to speed up the determination of
reserves and they also may be used to check detailed graphical analysis.
Actual problems are worked to show how the formulas are used. Emphasis should be placed on precaution. Where logarithms are required,
no less than six-place tables must be used precisely. If it is necessary
to determine the reserves of numerous wells by semilogarithmic analysis,
a special chart may be drawn with india ink on cellophane to speed the
work. The method is shown in the paper. The manner of working
semilogarithmic problems by calculus is shown, but since it is too cumbersome, the simpler algebraic methods are advised.
The second type of decline curve treated is the percentage of oil in
the fluid versus cumulative production. This method can be used on
single wells only, and obviously a well must be making water for the
method to apply. It worked very well on the Paleozoic wells of the
Mid-Continent, and particularly on the Siliceous Lime in Kansas.
"Setups" are given for the profitability analysis of individual wells.