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GlobalwarmingWikipedia

Globalwarming
FromWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia

Globalwarmingandclimatechangearetermsfortheobservedcenturyscaleriseintheaveragetemperatureof
theEarth'sclimatesystemanditsrelatedeffects.[2][3]Multiplelinesofscientificevidenceshowthattheclimate
systemiswarming.[4][5][6]Althoughtheincreaseofnearsurfaceatmospherictemperatureisthemeasureofglobal
warmingoftenreportedinthepopularpress,mostoftheadditionalenergystoredintheclimatesystemsince1970
hasgoneintotheoceans.Theresthasmeltediceandwarmedthecontinentsandatmosphere.[7][a]Manyofthe
observedchangessincethe1950sareunprecedentedovertenstothousandsofyears.[8]
Scientificunderstandingofglobalwarmingisincreasing.TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)
reportedin2014thatscientistsweremorethan95%certainthatglobalwarmingismostlybeingcausedbyhuman
(anthropogenic)activities,mainlyincreasingconcentrationsofgreenhousegasessuchasmethaneandcarbon
dioxide(CO2).[9][10][11]Humanactivitieshaveledtocarbondioxideconcentrationsabovelevelsnotseenin
hundredsofthousandsofyears.Currently,abouthalfofthecarbondioxidereleasedfromtheburningoffossil
fuelsremainsintheatmosphere.Therestisabsorbedbyvegetationandtheoceans.[12]Climatemodelprojections
summarizedinthereportindicatedthatduringthe21stcenturytheglobalsurfacetemperatureislikelytorisea
further0.3to1.7C(0.5to3.1F)fortheirlowestemissionsscenarioand2.6to4.8C(4.7to8.6F)forthe
highestemissionsscenario.[13]Thesefindingshavebeenrecognizedbythenationalscienceacademiesofthemajor
industrializednations[14][b]andarenotdisputedbyanyscientificbodyofnationalorinternationalstanding.[16]
Futureclimatechangeandassociatedimpactswilldifferfromregiontoregionaroundtheglobe.[17][18]Anticipated
effectsincludewarmingglobaltemperature,risingsealevels,changingprecipitation,andexpansionofdesertsin
thesubtropics.[19]WarmingisexpectedtobegreateroverlandthanovertheoceansandgreatestintheArctic,with
thecontinuingretreatofglaciers,permafrostandseaice.Otherlikelychangesincludemorefrequentextreme
weathereventsincludingheatwaves,droughts,heavyrainfallwithfloodsandheavysnowfall[20]ocean
acidificationandspeciesextinctionsduetoshiftingtemperatureregimes.Effectssignificanttohumansincludethe
threattofoodsecurityfromdecreasingcropyieldsandtheabandonmentofpopulatedareasduetorisingsea
levels.[21][22]Becausetheclimatesystemhasalarge"inertia"andgreenhousegaseswillstayintheatmospherefor
alongtime,manyoftheseeffectswillnotonlyexistfordecadesorcenturies,butwillpersistfortensofthousands
ofyears.[23]
Possiblesocietalresponsestoglobalwarmingincludemitigationbyemissionsreduction,adaptationtoitseffects,
buildingsystemsresilienttoitseffects,andpossiblefutureclimateengineering.Mostcountriesarepartiestothe
UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC),[24]whoseultimateobjectiveistoprevent
dangerousanthropogenicclimatechange.[25]PartiestotheUNFCCChaveagreedthatdeepcutsinemissionsare
required[26]andthatglobalwarmingshouldbelimitedtowellbelow2.0C(3.6F)relativetopreindustrial
levels,[c]witheffortsmadetolimitwarmingto1.5C(2.7F).[28]
Publicreactionstoglobalwarmingandconcernaboutitseffectsarealsoincreasing.Aglobal2015PewResearch
Centerreportshowedamedianof54%considerit"averyseriousproblem".Therearesignificantregional
differences,withAmericansandChinese(whoseeconomiesareresponsibleforthegreatestannualCO2emissions)
amongtheleastconcerned.[29]
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GlobalwarmingWikipedia

Contents
1 Observedtemperaturechanges
1.1 Trends
1.2 Warmestyears
2 Initialcausesoftemperaturechanges(externalforcings)
2.1 Greenhousegases
2.2 Aerosolsandsoot
2.3 Solaractivity
2.4 VariationsinEarth'sorbit
3 Feedback
4 Climatemodels
5 Observedandexpectedenvironmentaleffects
5.1 Extremeweather
5.2 Sealevelrise
5.3 Ecologicalsystems
Globalmeansurfacetemperaturechangefrom1880to
5.4 Longtermeffects
2015,relativetothe19511980mean.Theblackline
5.5 Largescaleandabruptimpacts
istheglobalannualmeanandtheredlineisthefive
6 Observedandexpectedeffectsonsocialsystems
yearlowesssmooth.Theblueuncertaintybarsshowa
6.1 Habitatinundation
95%confidencelimit.Source:NASAGISS(http://dat
6.2 Economy
a.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/).
6.3 Infrastructure
7 Possibleresponsestoglobalwarming
7.1 Mitigation
7.2 Adaptation
7.3 Climateengineering
8 Discourseaboutglobalwarming
8.1 Politicaldiscussion
8.2 Scientificdiscussion
8.3 Discussionbythepublicandinpopularmedia
8.3.1 Surveysofpublicopinion
9 Etymology
10 Seealso
11 Notes
12 Citations
Worldmapshowingsurfacetemperaturetrends(Cper
13 References
decade)between1950and2014.Source:NASA
14 Furtherreading
GISS. [1]
15 Externallinks

Observedtemperaturechanges
Theglobalaverage(landandocean)surfacetemperature
showsawarmingof0.85[0.65to1.06]Cintheperiod
1880to2012,basedonmultipleindependentlyproduced
datasets.[33]Earth'saveragesurfacetemperatureroseby
0.74 0.18Covertheperiod19062005.Therateof
warmingalmostdoubledforthelasthalfofthatperiod
(0.13 0.03Cperdecade,versus
0.07 0.02Cperdecade).[34]

Fossilfuelrelatedcarbondioxide(CO2)emissions
comparedtofiveoftheIPCC's"SRES"emissions

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