Too much of public discourse on farmer suicides could bring on unseemly haggling

over the numbers.

By a four-three majority, a seven-member Bench has ruled that it is a general pr
ohibition on the use of religion or any other communal or sectarian value in the
electoral arena.
And as the Chief Statistician emphasised, these projections were based solely o
n data from the first seven months through October and do not factor in the impa
ct from the
withdrawal of high-value banknotes and the consequent cash crunch.
Activists and the media rightly question loopholes in the National Crime Records
Bureau data,
pointing out that several State governments often report no farm suicides, cont
rary to local media reportage.
The minority favoured limiting the ambit of the sub-section to cover only candid
ates who sought votes on such grounds, or the rivals they wanted the voters not
to back on similar grounds.
A closer look at the sectoral GVA projections throws into relief the areas of co
ncern: Mining and quarrying is estimated to shrink 1.8 per cent this
year after expanding 7.4 per cent a year earlier, while electricity, gas, water
supply and other utility services
collectively an indicator of broader economic
activity
is
slowing to 6.5 per cent from 6.6 per cent.
However, there is also much needless suspicion and conspiracy-theorising;
the NCRB s data are from police station-level First Information Reports, and FIRs
are often contested documents, not conclusive proof.
That secularism is the bedrock of our democracy is undisputed. That the electora
l process ought not to permit appeals to the electorate on these narrow grounds
is equally beyond doubt.
More worryingly, the seven-month numbers establish that two key engines of the
economy, manufacturing and services, are losing momentum faster than was antici
pated,
and this could spell trouble for the coming quarters.
Attacking the NCRB for the numbers rising or falling is illogical;
media reports about the NCRB changing definitions or manipulating the data this
year are demonstrably false.
Against this backdrop, it is only logical that the Supreme Court should decide t
hat it is a corrupt practice for candidates to use any caste or communal parameter
s to
canvass for votes or to discredit a rival, regardless of whether the candidates
themselves belong to such religious, communal or linguistic groups.
This is especially so when seen in the backdrop of demonetisation and what the R
eserve Bank of India referred to as the short-run disruptions in economic activit
y in
cash-intensive sectors such as retail trade, hotels & restaurants and transport
ation, and in the unorganised sector and aggregate demand compression associated
with adverse wealth effects .
For the government s part, it could start by accepting that these numbers are the
bare minimum,
unlike Chhattisgarh s Agriculture Minister who responded by insisting that no far
mer had killed himself and the NCRB must be wrong.
Advance GDP estimates and gross value added (GVA) for the current fiscal year fr
om the Central Statistics Office clearly reveal the extent of the slowdown.
Moreover, while the NCRB lists several reasons, including marital and family pr
oblems and illness, as the causes of farm suicides,
this should not be taken as the gospel truth;
initial police reports often have little to do with the complex factors that dr
ive someone to take his or her life.
While GDP growth is now pegged at 7.1 per cent, compared with a 7.6 per cent pac
e in 2015-16, GVA is forecast to expand at 7 per cent this year,

easing from the 7.2 per cent posted 12 months earlier.

The government would do better to study more scientifically what is driving far
mers to take their own lives at the rate of over one every hour.