Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
1 4.8
2 4.1
3 6
4 6.5
5 5.8
6 5.2
7 6.8
8 7.4
9 6
10 5.6
11 7.5
12 7.8
13 6.3
14 5.9
15 8
16 8.4 8.4 8.40
17 #NAME? #NAME?
18 #NAME? #NAME?
19 #NAME? #NAME?
20 #NAME? #NAME?
21 #NAME? #NAME?
22 #NAME? #NAME?
23 #NAME? #NAME?
24 #NAME? #NAME?
25 #NAME? #NAME?
26 #NAME? #NAME?
27 #NAME? #NAME?
28 #NAME? #NAME?
29 #NAME? #NAME?
30 #NAME? #NAME?
Upper Confidence Bound Statistic Value
Alpha 0.50
Beta 0.00
Gamma 0.00
MASE 0.22
SMAPE 0.03
MAE 0.20
RMSE 0.27
5
8.40
4 #NAME?
3 #NAME?
2
#NAME?
#NAME?
1
#NAME?
0 #NAME?
1#NAME?
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
3 11 7.5 2
4 12 7.8 1
Year 4 1 13 6.3 0
0 2 4
2 14 5.9
3 15 8
4 16 8.4
Sales
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Classical Multiplicative Model: Yt = It * Tt * St
1 2 3
(Baseline)
4 5 6a 6a
Centered
Moving Seasonality Seasonal Seasonal
Average Contributions16 Components Components
CMA(4) Yt/CMA(4) 14 St St - Adjusted
12
5.48 10
5.74
8
5.98
6.19 6
6.33
4
6.40
Quarter
3
6.54
6.68 Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
6.76
6.84
6.94 Sales CMA(4)
7.08
1 2 3
1.095890411
0.9707112971 0.8404040404 1.0750988142
0.9177820268 0.8389513109 1.1090573013
0.9081081081 0.8339222615
0.9322004773 0.8377592042 1.0933488422
0.0016534166 0.0016534166 0.0016534166
0.9305470607 0.8361057877 1.0916954256
7 8 9 10
Sales CMA(4)
4
1.1328976035
1.15625
1.1407678245
Quarter Ct
1 #DIV/0!
2 #DIV/0!
3 #DIV/0!
4
Classical Multiplicative Model: Yt = It * Tt * St
1 2 3
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9595786157
R Square 0.9207911196
Adjusted R Square 0.9151333425
Standard Error 0.2126712474
Observations 16
ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 1 7.360933 7.3609325797 162.7478587703
Residual 14 0.633207 0.0452290595
Total 15 7.994139
CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value
Intercept 5.0996100949 0.111526 45.7258562762 1.209866355E-016
Time, t 0.1471387159 0.011534 12.7572669005 4.247717297E-009
Yt = It * Tt * St
(Baseline)
4 5 6a 6a
Centered
Moving Seasonality Seasonal Seasonal
Average Contributions Index Components
CMA(4) Yt/CMA(4) St St - Adjusted
0.93 0.93
0.84 0.84
5.48 1.10 1.09 1.09
5.74 1.13 1.14 1.14
5.98 0.97 0.93 0.93
6.19 0.84 0.84 0.84
6.33 1.08 1.09 1.09
6.40 1.16 1.14 1.14
6.54 0.92 0.93 0.93
6.68 0.84 0.84 0.84
6.76 1.11 1.09 1.09
6.84 1.14 1.14 1.14
6.94 0.91 0.93 0.93
7.08 0.83 0.84 0.84
1.09 1.09
1.14 1.14
0.93 0.93
0.84 0.84
1.09 1.09
1.14 1.14
Significance F
4.248E-009
Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
4.86041117 5.3388090238 4.860411166 5.3388090238
0.12240135 0.1718760802 0.1224013515 0.1718760802
1 2 3
1.095890411
0.9707112971 0.8404040404 1.0750988142
0.9177820268 0.8389513109 1.1090573013
0.9081081081 0.8339222615
0.9322004773 0.8377592042 1.0933488422
0.0016534166 0.0016534166 0.0016534166
0.9305470607 0.8361057877 1.0916954256
7 8 9 10
4
1.1328976035
1.15625
1.1407678245
Quarter Ct Quarter St
1 1.01 1 0.93 0.93
2 1.01 2 0.84 0.84
3 1.01 3 1.09 1.09
4 1.01 4 1.14 1.14
Time Series Plot of Car Sales
9
3
Quarter 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3
Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Sales CMA(4)
Sales Tt*St*Ct
Car Sales
1 2 3 4 1 2 3
Year 3 Year 4
MA(4)
orecast
3
*St*Ct
Classical Multiplicative Model: Yt = It * Tt * St
Yt
Time, t Year Quarter Sales MA(4)
1 Year 1 1 4.8
2 2 4.1
3 3 6 5.35
4 4 6.5 5.6
5 Year 2 1 5.8 5.875
6 2 5.2 6.075
7 3 6.8 6.3
8 4 7.4 6.35
9 Year 3 1 6 6.45
10 2 5.6 6.625
11 3 7.5 6.725
12 4 7.8 6.8
13 Year 4 1 6.3 6.875
14 2 5.9 7
15 3 8 7.15
16 4 8.4
17 Year 5 1
18 2
19 3
20 4
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9595786157
R Square 0.9207911196
Adjusted R Square 0.9151333425
Standard Error 0.2126712474
Observations 16
ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 1 7.3609325797 7.3609325797
Residual 14 0.6332068323 0.0452290595
Total 15 7.994139412
F Significance F
162.7479 4.247717296668E-009
2
Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year
Quarter St
1 0.93 0.93
2 0.84 0.84
3 1.09 1.09
4 1.14 1.14
Car Sales
3
r3 Year 4
Deseasonalised
Sales Demand Forecast
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Airports
Maritime/Seaports
Healthcare / Epidermic Outbreak
Logistics / Supply Chains / Procurement
Retails
Inflation
Employement / Unemployement
Real Estate
Sports
Immigration
Stock marget margins
Goal
We want to be able to provide reliable sales forecast, say for year 5
doing this?
the data over a relatively long period of time, either upwards or downwards
e caused by special events may just represent random noise in the series.
nwards
where Yt is the actual value of the data in the time series at time t
Tt is the trend component at time at time t
Ct is the cyclic component at time at time t
St is the cyclic component at time at time t
Rt is the random component at time at time t
Y t = T t + Ct + S t + R t
Other forms exist. The specification most commonly used is the multiplicative form:
Y t = T t * C t * S t * Rt
Thus, the changes in the actual values of Y t are determined by four factors.
Our task is to decompose the time series of Y into its four components.
ime Series
athematical expression:
series at time t
ultiplicative form:
Seasonality / Seasonal Fluctuations:
The process of decomposing the time series data into its components, starts with identif
This allows for computing the trend.
easonal fluctuations
Remember:
y column 4 We are using the multiplicative time series model: Yt
Yt / St
data for visualization and appreciate the seasonal effects
d component
ariable and time (t) as independent variable
e Regression Analysis Again, Remember:
ving the trend components We are using the multiplicative time series m
torical data
series model: Yt = St * It * Ct * Tt
Average Error 0
MAD 10.33333
Absolute Percentge
Month Sales Forecast Error Error Error APE
1 20 23 -3 3 -0.15 0.15
2 30 27 3 3 0.1 0.1
3 40 43 -3 3 -0.075 0.075
4 50 47 3 3 0.06 0.06
Absolute Percentge
Month Sales Forecast Error Error Error APE
1 200 210 -10 10 -0.05 0.05
2 300 290 10 10 0.03333333 0.033333
3 400 390 10 10 0.025 0.025
4 500 510 -10 10 -0.02 0.02
SSE = Sum of Squared Forecast Error SSE
43
Series 1
Squared
Month Sales Forecast Error Error
1 20 23 -3 9
2 30 27 3 9
3 40 43 -3 9
4 50 46 4 16
SSE
400
Series 2
Squared
Month Sales Forecast Error Error
1 200 210 -10 100
2 300 290 10 100
3 400 390 10 100
4 500 510 -10 100
Month Sales Forecast 1 (Actual/Forecast)-1
1 10 8 0.25
2 20 25 -0.2
3 15 10 0.5
4 25 30 -0.1666666667
5 35 30 0.1666666667
We are 95% sure that our bias lies in these confidence intervals
0 not in 95%
Confidence
Interval: Bias is
significant
as Forecast 1 29.48%
as Forecast 2 8.05%
onfidence intervals
0 in 95%
Confidence
Interval: Bias is
not significant
TRENDLINE
Year Percentage Sales
2012 88
Percenta
2013 83 90
2014 80 88
2015 75 86 f(x) = - 4x + 8135.5999999994
84 R = 0.9925558313
2016 72
82
80
78
2017 67.6 76
74
72
70
2012 2012.5 2013 2013.5 20
Percentage Sales
= - 4x + 8135.5999999994
0.9925558313
Percentage Revenue
100
90
80
70
f(x) = - 0.8504901961x + 1773.5490196078
60 R = 0.0734667106
50
40
30
20
10
0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
40
30
20
10
0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Here in this example, our line can only explan about 7.35% of the variations in our data
About 93% remain unxplained
n our data
TRENDLINE PERFORMANCE
1 Standard Error of a Trendline / Regression
2 Outliers
Standard Error of the regression: 68% of your data points should lie w
95% of your data points should lie w
Any point outside 2 std error of trend
2007 90 28.2424
0
2008 70 9.3056 1990 1995
2009 72 12.3688
2010 50 -8.568
2011 44 -13.5048
2012 98 41.5584
2013 29 -26.3784
2014 61 6.6848
2015 40 -13.252
2016 5 -47.1888
Percentage Sales
90
88
86 f(x) = - 0.4x + 875.6
84
R = 0.9925558313
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Percentage Revenue