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Risk management has traditionally been occupied in eliminated downside exposures. This
paper puts forward the idea of total risk management as the ability to respond to market
factors beyond management control so as to stabilise corporate earnings. This in turn will
lead to enhanced trust by investors and stakeholders and result in enhanced performance.
The paper reports on an empirical study that examines the performance relationship of
total risk management and finds a positive relationship, especially among firms investing in
innovation and those operating in knowledge-intensive industries.
Ó 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Introduction
Risk management is considered an increasingly important executive concern but there is limited
empirical evidence regarding the implied performance effects as the associated practices continue
to evolve. While risk management techniques often focus on the elimination of downside expo-
sures, we conceive of total risk management as a general ability to respond to exogenous market
factors beyond managerial control so as to damp the variability of corporate earnings. One argu-
ment in favour of this risk management outcome is that stable earnings reduce the likelihood of
financial distress and make favourably-priced capital accessible for good business propositions.
Another rationale suggests that stakeholder relationships are jeopardised if corporate survival is un-
certain, so a lack of risk management will impose incremental costs on counter-party transactions.
A more recent contribution adopts a resource-based view to suggest that effective risk management
provides incentives for essential stakeholders to invest in assets and competencies that are specific to
the firm, which holds the key to develop responsive business opportunities and gain sustainable
competitive advantage. We analyse the latter reasoning in an empirical study examining the
0024-6301/$ - see front matter Ó 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.lrp.2008.01.002
performance relationship of total risk management and explore compliance with the underlying
rationale among firms exemplar to observed outcomes. The study of a large cross-sectional sample
provides general support for the firm-specific investment rationale. We find a positive relationship
between total risk management and corporate performance and observe higher performance
relationships among firms investing in innovation and firms operating in knowledge-intensive
industries where firm-specific investments are particularly important. Incidentally, we fail to find
evidence in support of the two alternative explanations for positive risk management effects.
A string of spectacular corporate failures and dramatic terrorism events over the past decade have
increased the focus on risk management practices to deal with corporate exposures while arguing
for the performance-enhancing effects of these approaches.1 Despite this surge in interest, few em-
pirical studies have attempted to analyse whether the alleged advantages materialise. These attempts
are partially hampered by the complexity of the risk management concept, which incorporates
different practices to reduce downside losses as well as enhancing upside gains in a holistic and in-
tegrative manner. Some firms seem consistently to outperform in changing business environments
but can this be ascribed to effective risk management capabilities? In the high-velocity computer
products industries, commonly used to study strategic responsiveness under turbulent market
conditions, names such as Cisco, Dell and Microsoft often appear as organisations that are success-
ful at managing their market risks and stabilising earnings. However, is the seeming competitive
advantage of such firms associated with effective risk management outcomes, and if so, what can
explain these performance relationships? In this study we address these strategic issues.
Risk management is often perceived as the specific practices imposed to reduce the potential
adverse effects of risk phenomena caused by price volatilities, accidents, political events, supply
chain disruptions, economic developments, etc. These exposures may all have a substantial negative
impact on corporate earnings but represent a wide spectrum of risks that often are dealt with by
different specialists in the organisation. A more holistic perspective is concerned with the corporate
handling of these market risks as well as the business opportunities they may induce. Hence, we
define total risk management as the ability to respond effectively to all exogenous market factors
beyond managerial control so the variability of corporate earnings is damped. This ability includes
practices to reduce downside exposures, such as financial hedging, insurance contracting and man-
agement controls, as well as approaches to enhance upside gains through innovation, responsive
decision-making, redeployment of resources etc.
The risk management focus is reflected in increasing corporate use of derivatives to hedge various
market risks, engagement in insurance covers and adoption of formal enterprise risk management
approaches. However, given the historical motivation for risk management and the emergence of
regulatory requirements, there has been a tendency to emphasise downside risk. In fact, responsive-
ness also relates to an ability to exploit new opportunities that emerge from changing conditions. In
other words, total risk management goes beyond a conventional risk perspective and incorporates
response capabilities that allow the corporation to identify and exploit opportunities as market con-
ditions change and thereby impose a more favourable risk profile.2 Where risk management often is
conceived as procedures that identify and manage downside risk events, other responsive processes
are equally important, such as the development of new business opportunities and the execution of
them to counter and take advantage of evolving competitive scenarios.
General demand
ERM Economic Price relations
Structural flexibilities
Foreign exchange Portfolio diversification
risks: Interest rates Financial derivatives
Commodity prices Leading/lagging of payments
RM
Natural catastrophes Insurance contracts
Hazards: Man-made disasters
Terrorism events
Risk-transfer and financing
Risk mitigation efforts
Casualties Preparedness/exercises
The emergence of strategic risks can be ascribed as imperfections in resource and output markets
where organisations have different abilities to mobilise and deploy resources in ways that generate
valuable products and services. Accordingly, total risk management can be facilitated by corporate
development investments that convert potentially valuable resources into new responsive actions
that exploit changing market conditions. This reasoning goes straight to the heart of the
resource-based view. According to the resource-based view of the firm, sustainable competitive
advantage beholds to organisations where managers are able to recognise and deploy unique re-
sources and thereby create excess returns for the firm because the resources hold future promise
in the market.12 Hence, the uniqueness of valuable resources relates to the firm’s ability to identify,
develop and nurture resource endowments with promising future market potentials that nobody
else is able to recognise, and doing so on an ongoing basis. This ability to identify valuable resources
may depend on the exchange of ideas among internal members of the firm as well as with contacts
outside the firm. As resources and competencies are developed further to shape the eventual
business opportunities, the relationships between employees, managers, suppliers, partners and cus-
tomers will play an important role. In these interactions, the counterparts engage human efforts and
intellectual capacity towards the particular business concepts promoted by the firm. The counter-
parting organisations may structure their activities to meet the needs of the corporation and make
supportive infrastructure investments. In short, they commit resources in firm-specific investments
that are geared specifically towards the unique corporate engagement where the firm’s value-
creating capacity will depend on such commitments.
In the development of business opportunities, the choice of investments made in new operational
processes, product features, service elements, supportive technologies, etc., becomes important as
the means to explore future return possibilities for the firm. Accordingly, the corporation must in-
vest in ongoing search for new resource advantages supported by creative interaction with various
stakeholders to retain competitive advantage. These investments in innovation are the backbone for
the creation of new business opportunities that can provide strategic flexibility in turbulent market
environments. Hence, a conscious innovation strategy, where investment in research and develop-
ment of new products and services is used to search for market opportunities and refine competen-
cies, can be an important precondition for effective risk management. By uncovering the potential
for future business opportunities, the range of alternative actions available to the corporation will
increase and the extended strategic action space should improve the ability to exploit new market
conditions and respond effectively in a changing competitive landscape. Hence, risk management
capabilities supported by development investment may allow the corporation to react to exposures
(possible distributions of performance outcomes in an individual firm with and without effective
risk management capabilities)
Frequency
Enhance upside gains through
f(p)
development of responsive
business opportunities
_ _
P1 P2 Performance (p)
Figure 1. Total risk management (limit downside risk and exploit upside potential)
Hypothesis 1. Firms that demonstrate total risk management are associated with higher perfor-
mance outcomes
Hypothesis 2. Total risk management has a higher positive association with performance outcomes
among firms investing in innovation
Hypothesis 3. Total risk management has a higher positive association with performance outcomes
among firms operating in knowledge-intensive businesses
Hypothesis 4. Total risk management has a higher positive association with performance outcomes
among firms with higher levels of intellectual capital.
Methodology
The empirical study is based on a sample of large US-based firms operating across four-digit SIC-
code industries including Fortune 500 companies, Stern-Stewart Performance Top 1,000 companies
and the 1,000 largest companies in Compustat based on market capitalisation. These sources
produced a final sample of 1,386 companies with financial information available from Compustat.
Corporate performance
Performance was measured by return on assets (ROA), calculated as net income as a percentage of
average assets for the period, and return on investment (ROI), calculated as net income as a percent-
age of invested capital including paid-in capital, retained earnings and long-term debt. These
performance measures constitute dependent variables in our analyses as is common in other
organisational studies, which increases comparability of results.
Organisational size
Firm size represents prior performance and may reflect availability of organisational slack that
could affect risk management capabilities and corporate performance outcomes. Hence, firm
Industry effects
It is well known that different competitive environments may lead to systematic differences in
corporate performance levels across industries.19 Therefore, we conducted analyses of performance
levels across various industrial sectors to identify the influence of industry effects. On this basis, we
eventually included dummy variables representing industrial environments showing significant
influences on corporate performance levels. These variables reflect the business sectors of primary
industries [SIC: 100-1731], manufacturing [SIC: 2000-3990], transportation services [SIC: 4011-
4731], telecommunication [SIC: 4812-4899] and retail companies [SIC: 5200-5990]. The regression
coefficients of these dummies capture the relative differences in performance levels across distinct
industrial environments.20
Innovation
As is common practice, innovation was measured by R&D intensity determined as all costs incurred
by the firm to develop new products and services divided by total sales.22
Market-book ratio
The market to book ratio reflects the relationship between the market value of the firm as a going
concern and the asset value of the assets that support the underlying business activities. The rela-
tionship between market value and asset value is often conceived as a fundamental indicator of the
extent to which human-based intellectual capital drives value creation in the organisation. The ratio
was calculated as the market value of outstanding stock divided by the book value of the firm’s
reported equity position.
Financial leverage
Financial leverage affects the business risk of the firm and is considered a general risk management
tool that may affect risk management effectiveness and performance and, therefore, this variable
was included as a control variable in the regression analyses.24 Financial leverage was measured
as long-term debt divided by total equity at year-end. In this study, we consider the variable as
an industry contingency because financial leverage may be affected by specific conditions in the
business environment. Hence, the measure was standardised within industries identified by two-
digit SIC codes to capture firm divergence to industry peers.
In line with practice in comparable studies, the measures of corporate performance, total risk
management, innovation and financial leverage were averaged over the five years from 1996 to
2000 to eliminate spurious year-on-year effects over the period of study.25
The hypotheses were tested in multiple regression analyses. The regressions used the economic
performance measures, i.e., five-year average ROA and five-year average ROI, as dependent variables
and measures of risk management and the interaction terms between risk management, innovation,
knowledge-intensive industry dummies and the market to book ratio as independent variables.
The regressions were tested for possible outlier effects and multicollinearity. Datasets causing
prediction errors in excess of three times the standard deviation were excluded from the sample
in a sequential manner to observe changes in regression coefficients. While the exclusion of datasets
had no material effect on the analytical results, the outliers were not included in the results reported
here, which are based on a sample size of 1,369 companies. No multicollinearity problems were
registered and VIF factors did not exceed 3.4, which is well below the level indicating potential
multicollinearity problems.26
Results
Statistics and correlation coefficients on the complete dataset are reported in Table 1. The total
strategic risk management measures are significantly positively correlated with the corporate
Mean S.D. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
performance measures, organisational size and financial leverage but negatively correlated with the
market to book ratio. We also note that innovation, knowledge products and the market to book
ratio as proxies of firm-specific investment conditions are positively correlated. As appears, the risk
management measures and financial leverage have been standardised within the two-digit SIC-code
classification whereas all the other variables included in the study are based on their absolute values
(Table 2).
The results of the hierarchical multiple regression analyses are reported in Tables 3 and 4. The
regression coefficients of strategic risk management on both performance measures are significant
and positive (Model II) and thus provide support for Hypothesis 1. Hence, firms that demonstrate
effective risk management outcomes are found to be associated with higher corporate performance.
The regression coefficients of the interaction term between innovation and risk management on
both performance measures are significant and positive (Model III), which supports Hypothesis
2. That is, total risk management has a higher positive association with corporate performance
among firms that emphasise investment in innovation. The regression coefficients on the interac-
tion terms between the knowledge-intensive industry dummies and risk management on both per-
formance measures are significant and positive (Model IV), i.e., Hypothesis 3 is supported. Hence,
total risk management has a higher positive association with corporate performance among firms
that operate in knowledge-intensive manufacturing industries and knowledge-based service sectors.
Finally, the regression coefficients on the interaction term between the market to book ratio and
risk management on both performance measures are significant and positive (Model V) and
thus provide support for Hypothesis 4. Therefore, total risk management has a higher positive as-
sociation with performance outcomes among firms with high market valuations compared with the
value of their productive assets, which indicates that total risk management has particular perfor-
mance effects in organisations that rely on human-based intellectual capital.
Discussion
There has been a shortage of empirical studies assessing the implied performance effects of effective
risk management capabilities. Part of the explanation for this shortfall relates to the difficulty of
developing appropriate and consistent measures of risk management. Conventional risk manage-
ment perspectives have been skewed towards approaches seeking to eliminate downside exposures
even though it is recognised that risky environments also represent upside potential to responsive
organisations.27 Efforts are being devoted to consider the role and importance of flexible structures,
responsiveness and strategic renewal supported by an evolving conceptual framework around the
Performance ROA
Model I II III IV V
+
p < 0.10; *p < 0.05; **p < 0.01.
concept of dynamic capabilities often supported by individual case studies.28 Other recent quanti-
tative studies have demonstrated that specific use of derivatives is associated with lower sensitivity
to changes in market prices while studies adopting general risk measures, such as corporate cash
flow volatility, find a positive association to market returns, etc.29
Here we introduce a more holistic risk management measure indicating the firm’s ability to cope
with economic, operational and strategic exposures and damp effects of exogenous market influ-
ences to stabilise the earnings development. We argue that effective risk management constitutes
more than hedging market exposures through financial derivatives, covering for hazards by engag-
ing in insurance contracts and reducing operational disruptions through internal controls. Total
risk management also comprises development activities that allow the firm to respond effectively
to strategic risks, including competitor moves, technology shifts, political events, etc., many of
which are hard to quantify and even foresee. For this reason, there is a need to make an extended
definition of total risk management and devise reasonable measures of this construct that can be
used for empirical studies of the implied performance relationships.30 We adopt this approach
to analyse the overarching question whether effective risk management outcomes have positive
performance relationships and assess the plausibility of the firm-specific investment rationale
embedded in the handling of strategic exposures through development of business opportunities
that gain upside potential.
Hence, the reported results are consistent with the proposition that effective risk management
capabilities reflected in the ability to damp the impact of exogenous risk factors and reduce
variability in corporate earnings have significant positive performance effects. We also wanted to
investigate the proposition that these risk management effects are associated with an ability to
facilitate investment in firm-specific relationships among essential stakeholders. Many stakeholder
Performance ROI
Model I II III IV V
+
p < 0.10; *p < 0.05; **p < 0.01.
groups are unable to diversify the firm-specific exposures they incur by engaging in closer interac-
tions with the firm, e.g., managers, employees, customers, suppliers, alliance partners, etc. Hence,
effective risk management leads to positive performance outcomes because it reduces the vulnera-
bility of essential stakeholders as they engage in unique value-creating transactional relationships
with the firm. These relationships constitute the foundation for the organisation’s value-creating
capacity and the ability to sustain competitive advantage associated with the firm-specific invest-
ments made by key stakeholders and thereby gain an upside advantage from business opportunities
in a changing market environment.
The results from this study corroborate this theoretical rationale as the interaction between risk
management and innovation that builds on the commitment of firm-specific resources and speci-
alised knowledge is associated with higher performance outcomes. Accordingly, we find the perfor-
mance relationship of total risk management to be considerably higher in knowledge-intensive
industries characterised by emphasis on research and development and high market to book valu-
ations. Hence, firms operating in high-technology and advanced specialty areas, such as computer
products, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, diagnostic instruments, aircraft engines, etc., have sig-
nificantly higher benefits from effective risk management capabilities compared with other firms.
Firms operating in knowledge-based services in businesses such as auditing, consulting, engineer-
ing, computer programming, prepackaged software, etc. show similar risk management benefits.
Whereas the results from the regression analyses are consistent with the firm-specific investment
rationale and provide support for all the associated hypotheses, it is also interesting to consider the
extent to which the two alternative explanations for performance effects seem to be at play. The first
explanation suggests that a smoother earnings development as a result of effective risk management
capabilities reduces the potential bankruptcy risk and, therefore, will lead to lower financing costs
Corporate evidence
The large cross-sectional database analysed in this study provides a basis for identifying firms that
constitute positive and negative examplars of the observed risk management phenomena during the
period of study. However, given the turbulence of contemporary business environments, corpora-
tions can also change in their ability to manage different exogenous risk factors over time. There-
fore, while this study is based on data for the five-year period 1996e2000, things may have altered
since then as a consequence of changing market conditions, mergers and acquisitions, corporate
restructuring activities and other managerial interventions.
For example, the markets for information technology products were booming in the late 1990s
but were affected adversely by the bursting of the IT bubble in 2000/2001. Cisco Systems and Dell
Computer figure as good risk management performers in the computer products industries during
1996e2000 (Figure 2). However, Cisco was hit by the collapsing demand for internet-related
10
Return on Assets
Hewlett-Packard
-5
Emulex Silicon-Graphics
-10
-15
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Risk Management
equipment and posted a substantial one-time restructuring charge that affected the reported net
income for 2001. Cisco has subsequently adapted to the changing conditions and returned to pre-
vious earnings trajectories. Throughout this adaptation process, Cisco has maintained a ‘‘passionate
focus on the needs of . key stakeholders e customers, partners, employees, and shareholders’’.31
At the same time, Cisco has relied on its ‘‘ability to continuously innovate and lead the market in
terms of products and systems offerings’’ as an essential way of responding to the new market
conditions.
Dell Computer has maintained the momentum over the subsequent five-year period 2001e2005.
Being a champion of the direct business model, Dell is often considered the epitome of a stakeholder
manager. A basic idea of the direct model is that close customer contacts make the organisation
understand the changing customer needs. This stakeholder perspective is expressed in the compa-
ny’s policy statements: ‘‘We believe in creating loyal customers by providing a superior experience
at a greater value’’ and ‘‘we believe our continued success lies in teamwork and the opportunity
each team member has’’.32 In contrast, the relatively poor risk management performers in the sam-
ple displayed a lack of ability to apprehend changing customer needs and as a consequence suffered
from declining sales and erratic earnings.
Microsoft emerges as another risk management champion in the industry for prepackaged soft-
ware products during the period of study (Figure 3). Microsoft expresses a similar stakeholder focus
as it claims that: ‘‘Providing value to customers means not only building great products, but also
listening carefully to customers, responding quickly.’’ This focus extends to internal stakeholders
with a view to using the unique and firm-specific skills of its employees. Contrast these proactive
stakeholder perspectives with some of the poor risk management performers that remained highly
product-focused, unable to use their stakeholder relationships and adapt to the market changes.
The pharmaceutical products industry is another innovation-driven and knowledge-intensive in-
dustry where success is synonymous with development investments and uncertain long-term return
prospects. In this business environment Abbott Laboratories, Johnson & Johnson and Pfizer figure
among the high-risk management performers over the period (Figure 4). These firms have market
activities in pharmaceutical products, instruments and services and seem to share some common
characteristics in their emphasis on stakeholders. That is, they all express a strong commitment
to develop their essential stakeholder relations and associated firm-specific knowledge. In the words
of Abbott Laboratories: ‘‘We have a responsibility to advance our business objectives, engage our
stakeholders . and exercise our influence to make a productive contribution to society.’’ An ex-
amination of Johnson & Johnson’s credo reflects a similar stakeholder concern as it states that:
‘‘customers’ orders must be serviced promptly and accurately . our suppliers and distributors
15
Return on Assets
10
Computer Associates
Siebel Systems
5
-5 Micromuse
-10
Manugistics
-15
Inktomi
-20
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Risk Management
must have an opportunity to make a fair profit and . we are responsible to our employees’’. At
Pfizer we observe a similar emphasis on fundamental stakeholder relationships: ‘‘We want to
become the world’s most valued company to patients, customers, colleagues, investors, business
partners, and the communities where we work and live’’.
While these well-known company names illustrate effective risk management performers over the
period 1996e2000, other firms have shown waning risk management effectiveness. Hewlett Packard
(HP) ranks among the high performers during 1996e2000 but has fallen somewhat off this track in
subsequent years as it embarked on the megamerger with Compaq in 2001. This merger created
conflicts among HP’s key shareholder groups and after its implementation imposed a monstrous
one-time restructuring charge on 2002’s earnings. While the company officially has heeded its
original emphasis on customer loyalty and market leadership, the proposed cost synergies from
the merger caused management to divide the organisation into ‘‘customer-facing’’ and ‘‘product
generation’’ entities. Hence, the need to realise promised cost savings in the wake of the merger
seemed to dilute the previous corporate emphasis on customer-driven innovation. Similarly,
Pfizer’s acquisition of Pharmacia to create the world’s largest pharmaceutical company caused
Pfizer
10
Return on Assets
5
ICN Pharmacia
0
-5
-10
ICOS
-15
VERTEX
-20
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Risk Management
Conclusions
Based on a large cross-sectional sample, the study demonstrates that the ability of integrative risk
management capabilities to reduce earnings variability in the face of diverse economic, operational
and strategic risks is associated with superior economic performance. The positive performance
relationships of such a holistic approach to risk management are more pronounced among firms
operating in knowledge-intensive industries and companies emphasising investment in research
and development. Hence, the evidence is consistent with the proposition that effective risk manage-
ment encourages valuable firm-specific investment by essential stakeholders and allows the firm to
exploit opportunities as well as guard against downside exposures.
Acknowledgements
An earlier version of this paper benefited from comments offered by participants at the Copenhagen
Conference on Strategic Management and by Richard Bettis and Charles Baden-Fuller in particular.
I am indebted to the very constructive feedback provided by the anonymous reviewers and an
engaged review process that have contributed to a greatly improved manuscript.
References
1. Numerous sources have emerged in recent years that promote the benefits of risk management practices.
See, for example A. Berry and J. Phillips, Enterprise risk management: pulling it together, Risk
Management 45(9), 53e58 (1998); C. Clarke and S. Varma, Strategic risk management: the new
Biography
Torben Juul Andersen is a Professor at the Copenhagen Business School associated with the Center for Strategic
Management & Globalization. His research interests include corporate strategy development, effective strategy-
making processes and strategic risk management issues. He is author of several books on multinational risk
management and his research has appeared in publications including Strategic Management Journal, Journal of
Management Studies, Journal of Business Research and Journal of International Management. ta.smg@cbs.dk