S TAY CHNG KHON

KIN THC CHNG KHON C BN................................................ 4

Tng quan v Th trng Chng khon ................................................................. 4
Gii thiu v tri phiu v c phiu ........................................................................ 6
Cc c tnh ca tri phiu chuyn i ................................................................ 12
Pht hnh CK ln u ra cng chng (IPO). ....................................................... 15
Cc h s hot ng .............................................................................................. 18
Chuyn nhng c phn v th trng chng khon......................................... 19
Bo gi chng khon: Cch bo gi v hiu lc ca gi ................................... 22
Cc ch s chng khon "ni" g? ......................................................................... 23
Bn co bch .......................................................................................................... 25
Qu u t v Cty qun l qu trong vic chuyn i cc tng Cty NN .......... 30
Cn phn bit r khi nim c phiu thng....................................................... 38
Nghip v tch, gp c phiu ................................................................................ 39
Cm c chng khon ............................................................................................. 41
Mt s iu cn bit v lu k chng khon ....................................................... 42
Cc cng c phi sinh ............................................................................................ 44
KIN THC CHNG KHON NNG CAO .........................................49
Tham gia vo h thng giao dch chng khon................................................... 49
nh gi c phiu .................................................................................................... 59
Phn tch - d bo gi c phiu ............................................................................ 63
Phn tch thng tin ti chnh .................................................................................. 65
Cc h s ti chnh ................................................................................................. 70
Qun tr ri ro trong u t chng khon ............................................................. 72
Tm hiu ch s P/E................................................................................................. 75
nh gi t l ROE ................................................................................................. 76
Phn tch ch s Yield u t chng khon .................................................... 77
Ch s NAV (Net Asset value) l g? ..................................................................... 78
Xc nh gi tr c phiu bng chit khu dng c tc ....................................... 79
Khi no nn bn ra c phiu?................................................................................ 83
Phng php tnh ch s gi c phiu .................................................................. 86
Phng php bnh qun nhn gin n .............................................................. 88
Gi tham chiu ca c phiu trong nhng ngy c bit ................................... 91
La chn c phiu theo nguyn tc CAN SLIM .................................................. 97
Xy dng h thng thng tin CTNY v CTCK................................................ 100
Tm hiu kinh nghim QT v pht hnh tng vn v chi tr c tc bng CP . 102
S dng biu d bo gi c phiu ........................................................... 112
Thng tin v ngnh KD ca Cng ty ................................................................... 113
Phn tch k thut: H tr v khng c, ng xu th .................................... 114
Tip cn th trng OTC ...................................................................................... 119
Mua bn trn th trng OTC .............................................................................. 125
Phng thc to gi th trng OTC - nhng yu cu i vi nh to gi 127
Xy dng danh mc u t chng khon ......................................................... 128
Xc nh gi tr c phiu bng chit khu dng c tc ..................................... 138
Tiu chun mitcel trong nh gi v phn tch .................................................. 142
KINH NGHIM CHI CHNG KHON..............................................145
Cm nang cho nh u t mi vo ngh........................................................... 145
Nn quan tm n g trc khi u t? ............................................................. 146
Nhng nhn vt khng th thiu trn th trng chng khon........................ 151
Cn trng khi giao dch vi cc Cng ty chng khon ..................................... 153
Mua chng khon mt cch khn ngoan ........................................................... 156
nh hng ti sn trong u t chng khon ................................................. 157
u t bt hp php, bit trnh!.................................................................... 158
C nn chuyn i mc tiu u t tm kim li nhun khc?................... 160
Gi c bin ng nguyn nhn t u ? ......................................................... 163
Lut chi ca cc nh to gi trn th trng chng khon ........................... 164
Thi im nn bn ra c phiu i vi cc nh u t? .................................. 166
Gim thiu thua l trong u t chng khon ................................................... 167
Comex v bi hc t vic thng tin thiu trung thc......................................... 169
B quyt la chn chng khon cho danh mc u t ca bn. ..................... 171
Cc phng php phn tch gip bn u t c hiu qu! .............................. 172
Ba li thng gp khi u t ............................................................................... 174
Kinh nghim u t t mt cy i th .............................................................. 175
khng thua l khi i ch chng khon ....................................................... 177
u t th no l hp l? .................................................................................... 180
Nh u t nghip d cn phi quan tm iu g? ........................................... 184
Kinh doanh chng khon trn mng - c v mt ......................................... 193
Tri phiu cng ty, phc tp nhng hiu qu! ................................................... 197
ng qun tip cn thng tin trong u t chng khon................................. 200
KIN THC CHNG KHON C BN

Tng quan v Th trng Chng khon

Th trng chng khon trong iu kin ca nn kinh t hin i, c quan nim l ni

din ra cc hot ng giao dch mua bn chng khon trung v di hn. Vic mua bn ny
c tin hnh th trng s cp khi ngi mua mua c chng khon ln u t
nhng ngi pht hnh, v nhng th trng th cp khi c s mua i bn li cc chng
khon c pht hnh th trng s cp.

Nh vy, xt v mt hnh thc, th trng chng khon ch l ni din ra cc hot ng

trao i, mua bn, chuyn nhng cc loi chng khon, qua thay i ch th nm gi
chng khon. Th trng chng khon c nhng chc nng c bn sau:

1. Chc nng c bn ca th trng chng khon

- Huy ng vn u t cho nn kinh t

- Cung cp mi trng u t cho cng chng
- To tnh thanh khon cho cc chng khon
- nh gi hot ng ca doanh nghip
- To mi trng gip Chnh ph thc hin cc chnh sch v m

2. Cc ch th tham gia th trng chng khon

Cc t chc v c nhn tham gia th trng chng khon c th c chia thnh cc nhm
sau: nh pht hnh, nh u t v cc t chc c lin quan n chng khon.

a) Nh pht hnh

Nh pht hnh l cc t chc thc hin huy ng vn thng qua th trng chng khon.
Nh pht hnh l ngi cung cp cc chng khon - hng ho ca th trng chng
khon.

- Chnh ph v chnh quyn a phng l nh pht hnh cc tri phiu Chnh ph v

tri phiu a phng.
- Cng ty l nh pht hnh cc c phiu v tri phiu cng ty.
- Cc t chc ti chnh l nh pht hnh cc cng c ti chnh nh cc tri phiu,
chng ch th hng... phc v cho hot ng ca h.

b) Nh u t

Nh u t l nhng ngi thc s mua v bn chng khon trn th trng chng khon.
Nh u t c th c chia thnh 2 loi: nh u t c nhn v nh u t c t chc.
- Cc nh u t c nhn
- Cc nh u t c t chc

c) Cc t chc kinh doanh trn th trng chng khon

- Cng ty chng khon

- Qu u t chng khon
- Cc trung gian ti chnh

d) Cc t chc c lin quan n th trng chng khon

- C quan qun l Nh nc
- S giao dch chng khon
- Hip hi cc nh kinh doanh chng khon
- T chc lu k v thanh ton b tr chng khon
- Cng ty dch v my tnh chng khon
- Cc t chc ti tr chng khon
- Cng ty nh gi h s tn nhim...

3. Cc nguyn tc hot ng c bn ca th trng chng khon

Th trng chng khon hot ng theo cc nguyn tc c bn sau:

- Nguyn tc cng khai

- Nguyn tc trung gian
- Nguyn tc u gi

4. Cu trc v phn loi c bn ca th trng chng khon

Th trng chng khon l ni din ra cc giao dch, mua bn nhng sn phm ti chnh
(c phiu, tri phiu, cc khon vay ngn hng... c k hn trn 1 nm). Sau y l mt s
cch phn loi TTCK c bn:

a) Cn c vo s lun chuyn cc ngun vn

Th trng chng khon c chia thnh th trng s cp v th trng th cp.

Th trng s cp: l th trng mua bn cc chng khon mi pht hnh. Trn th

trng ny, vn t nh u t s c chuyn sang nh pht hnh thng qua vic nh u
t mua cc chng khon mi pht hnh.

Th trng th cp: l ni giao dch cc chng khon c pht hnh trn th

trng s cp, m bo tnh thanh khon cho cc chng khon pht hnh.

b) Cn c vo phng thc hot ng ca th trng

Th trng chng khon c phn thnh th trng tp trung (S giao dch chng
khon) v phi tp trung (th trng OTC).

c) Cn c vo hng ho trn th trng

Th trng chng khon cng c th c phn thnh cc th trng: th trng c phiu,

th trng tri phiu, th trng cc cng c chng khon phi sinh.

Th trng c phiu: th trng c phiu l th trng giao dch v mua bn cc loi

c phiu, bao gm c phiu thng, c phiu u i.

Th trng tri phiu: th trng tri phiu l th trng giao dch v mua bn cc
tri phiu c pht hnh, cc tri phiu ny bao gm cc tri phiu cng ty, tri phiu
th v tri phiu chnh ph.

Th trng cc cng c chng khon phi sinh

Th trng cc chng khon phi sinh l th trng pht hnh v mua i bn li cc chng
t ti chnh khc nh: quyn mua c phiu, chng quyn, hp ng quyn chn...

Gii thiu v tri phiu v c phiu

A. Tri phiu

1. Khi nim:

Tri phiu l mt loi chng khon quy nh ngha v ca ngi pht hnh (ngi vay
tin) phi tr cho ngi nm gi chng khon (ngi cho vay) mt khon tin xc nh,
thng l trong nhng khong thi gian c th, v phi hon tr khon cho vay ban u
khi n o hn.

2. c im:

a. Mt tri phiu thng thng c ba c trng chnh:

+ Mnh gi.
+ Li sut nh k (coupon)
+ Thi hn.

b. Tri phiu th hin quan h ch n con n gia ngi pht hnh v ngi u t .
Pht hnh tri phiu l i vay vn. Mua tri phiu l cho ngi pht hnh vay vn v nh
vy, tri ch l ch n ca ngi pht hnh. L ch n, ngi nm gi tri phiu (tri
ch) c quyn i cc khon thanh ton theo cam kt v khi lng v thi hn, song
khng c quyn tham gia vo nhng vn ca bn pht hnh.

c. Li sut ca cc tri phiu rt khc nhau, c quy nh bi cc yu t:

+ Cung cu vn trn th trng tn dng. Lng cung cu vn li tu thuc vo chu k
kinh t, ng thi chnh sch ca ngn hng trung ng, mc thm ht ngn sch ca
chnh ph v phng thc ti tr thm ht .
+ Mc ri ro ca mi nh pht hnh v ca tng t pht hnh. Cu trc ri ro ca li
sut s quy nh li sut ca mi tri phiu. Ri ro cng ln, li sut cng cao.
+ Thi gian o hn ca tri phiu. Nu cc tri phiu c mc ri ro nh nhau, nhn
chung thi gian o hn cng di th li sut cng cao.

3. Phn loi tri phiu.

3.1. Cn c vo vic c ghi danh hay khng:

- Tri phiu v danh: l tri phiu khng mang tn tri ch, c trn chng ch cng nh
trn s sch ca ngi pht hnh. Nhng phiu tr li nh theo t chng ch, v khi n
hn tr li, ngi gi tri phiu ch vic x ra v mang ti ngn hng nhn li. Khi tri
phiu o hn, ngi nm gi n mang chng ch ti ngn hng nhn li khon cho
vay.
- Tri phiu ghi danh: l loi tri phiu c ghi tn v a ch ca tri ch, trn chng ch
v trn s ca ngi pht hnh. Hnh thc ghi danh c th ch thc hin cho phn vn
gc, cng c th l ghi danh ton b, c gc ln li. Dng ghi danh ton b m ang ngy
cng ph bin l hnh thc ghi s. Tri phiu ghi s hon ton khng c dng vt cht,
quyn s hu c xc nhn bng vic lu gi tn v a ch ca ch s hu trn my
tnh.

3.2. Cn c vo i tng pht hnh tri phiu:

- Tri phiu chnh ph: l nhng tri phiu do chnh ph pht hnh nhm mc ch b p
thm ht ngn sch, ti tr cho cc cng trnh cng ch, hoc lm cng c iu tit tin
t.Tri phiu chnh ph l loi chng khon khng c ri ro thanh ton v cng l loi tri
phiu c tnh thanh khon cao. Do c im , li sut ca tri phiu chnh ph c
xem l li sut chun lm cn c n nh li sut ca cc cng c n khc c cng k
hn.

- Tri phiu cng trnh: l loi tri phiu c pht hnh huy ng vn cho nhng mc
ch c th, thng l xy dung nhng cng trnh c s h tng hay cng trnh phc li
cng cng. Tri phiu ny c th do chnh ph trung ng hoc chnh quyn a phng
pht hnh.

- Tri phiu cng ty: l cc tri phiu do cc cng ty pht hnh vay vn di hn.
Tri phiu cng ty c c im chung sau: Tri ch c tr li nh k v tr gc khi
o hn, song khng c tham d vo cc quyt nh ca cng ty. Nhng cng c loi
tri phiu khng c tr li nh k, ngi mua c mua di mnh gi v khi o hn
c nhn li mnh gi. Khi cng ty gii th hoc thanh l, tri phiu c u tin thanh
ton trc cc c phiu. C nhng iu kin c th km theo, hoc nhiu hnh thc m
bo cho khon vay.

Tri phiu cng ty bao gm nhng loi sau:

+ Tri phiu c m bo: l tri phiu c m bo bng nhng ti sn th chp c th,
thng l bt ng sn v cc thit b. Ngi nm gi tri phiu ny c bo v mt
mc cao trong trng hp cng ty ph sn, v h c quyn i n i vi mt ti sn
c th.

+ Tri phiu khng bo m: Tri phiu tn chp khng c m bo bng ti sn m

c m bo bng tn chp ca cng ty. Nu cng ty b ph sn, nhng tri ch ca tri
phiu ny c gii quyt quyn li sau cc tri ch c bo m, nhng trc c ng.
Cc tri phiu tn chp c th chuyn i cho php tri ch c quyn chuyn tri phiu
thnh c phiu thng ca cng ty pht hnh. Tu theo quy nh, vic chuyn i c th
c tin hnh vo bt c thi im no, hoc ch vo nhng thi im c th xc nh.

Ngoi nhng c im trn, mi t tri phiu c pht hnh c th c gn km theo

nhng c tnh ring khc na nhm p ng nhu cu c th ca mt bn no . C th
l:

+ Tri phiu c th mua li cho php ngi pht hnh mua li chng khon trc khi o
hn khi thy cn thit. c tnh ny c li cho ngi pht hnh song li bt li cho ngi
u t, nn loi tri phiu ny c th c li sut cao hn so vi nhng tri phiu khc c
cng thi hn.

+ Tri phiu c th bn li: cho php ngi nm gi tri phiu c quyn bn li tri
phiu cho bn pht hnh trc khi tri phiu o hn. Quyn ch ng trong trng hp
ny thuc v nh u t, do li sut ca tri phiu ny c th thp hn so vi nhng
tri phiu khc c cng thi hn.

+ Tri phiu c th chuyn i cho php ngi nm gi n c th chuyn i tri phiu

thnh c phiu thng, tc l thay i t cch t ngi ch n tr thnh ngi ch s
hu ca cng ty.

B. C phiu

I. Khi nim

Khi mt cng ty gi vn, s vn cn gi c chia thnh nhiu phn nh bng nhau

gi l c phn. Ngi mua c phn gi l c ng. C ng c cp mt giy chng
nhn s hu c phn gi l c phiu v ch c cng ty c phn mi pht hnh c phiu.
Nh vy, c phiu chnh l mt chng th chng minh quyn s hu ca mt c ng i
vi mt cng ty c phn v c ng l ngi c c phn th hin bng c phiu.

Thng thng hin nay cc cng ty c phn thng pht hnh 02 dng c phiu: C phiu
thng v c phiu u i.

Cc c ng s hu c phiu thng thng c quyn hn v trch nhim i vi cng ty

nh: c chia c tc theo kt qu kinh doanh; c quyn bu c, ng c vo b my
qun tr v kim sot cng ty; V phi chu trch nhim v s thua l hoc ph sn tng
ng vi phn vn gp ca mnh.

Cc c ng s hu c phiu u i cng l hnh thc u t vn c phn nh c phiu

thng thng nhng quyn hn v trch nhim hn ch nh: li tc c nh; khng c
quyn bu c, ng c..v.v.

II. Tc dng ca vic pht hnh C phiu:

i vi Cng ty pht hnh:

Vic pht hnh c phiu s gip cho Cng ty c th huy ng vn khi thnh lp hoc
m rng kinh doanh. Ngun vn huy ng ny khng cu thnh mt khon n m cng ty
phi c trch nhim hon tr cng nh p lc v kh nng cn i thanh khon ca cng
ty s gim rt nhiu, trong khi s dng cc phng thc khc nh pht hnh tri phiu
cng ty, vay n t cc t chc tn dng ...th hon ton ngc li. Tuy nhin, mi phng
thc huy ng u c nhng u nhc im ring v nh qun l cng ty phi cn nhc,
la chn ty tng thi im v da trn nhng c th cng nh chin lc kinh doanh
ca cng ty quyt nh phng thc p dng thch hp.

i vi nh u t c phiu:

Cc nh u t trn th trng sn sng mua C phiu c cng ty pht hnh. Giy

chng nhn s hu c phn c pht hnh di dng chng th c gi v c xc nh
thng qua vic chuyn dch, mua bn chng trn th trng chng khon gia cc ch th
u t v c php lut bo v. Mt khc, ngi mua c phiu ngh rng ng vn h
u t c cc nh qun l cng ty s dng c hiu qu, to ra nhiu li nhun hoc
nh gi hot ng cng nh tim nng pht trin, sinh li ca cng ty d nh u t l
cao, v ng nhin h s c hng mt phn t nhng thnh qu thng qua vic
thanh ton c tc cho cc c ng, ng thi gi tr c phn s hu cng s gia tng trn
c s thc ti v trin vng pht trin ca cng ty mnh chn. Thng thng, kh nng
sinh li, thu hi vn u t c phiu t l thun vi gi c giao dch c phiu trn th
trng.

* C phiu ph thng

Khi ni n hng ha trn th trng chng khon, ngi ta thng ngh ngay n c
Phiu ph thng (common stock). Thc t ti nhiu nc trn th gii, th trng chng
khon (the securities market) rt quen thuc i vi mi ngi dn. V d, M, trung
bnh c 4 ngi trn 25 tui th c mt ngi s hu (own) c phiu ph thng, hoc trc
tip, hoc gin tip thng qua cc qu tng h (mutual funds) .

Vy bn cht ca c phiu ph thng l g?

Mt c phiu ph thng i din cho quyn s hu mt phn cng ty (represent a
proportional ownership interest in a corporaton). Nu mt cng ty c 100 c phiu ang
lu hnh (outstanding stock) v bn s hu mt trong s th c ngha l bn s hu
1/100 cng ty. Nu cng ty c 1.000.000 c phiu ang lu hnh v bn nm gi 1.000 c
phiu th bn s hu 1.000/1.000.000 hay 1/1.000 cng ty. Thng thng, mt cng ty c
th thay i s lng c phiu ang lu hnh bng cch bn cc c phiu b sung (selling
additional shares) hay mua li v hu b mt phn cc c phiu pht hnh trc
(buying back and cancelling some of the shares previously issued). Trong c hai trng
hp trn, t l s hu ca cc c ng c trong cng ty u thay i.

V d, mt cng ty pht hnh 100 c phiu ra cng chng (issue 100 shares to the public)
v bn mua mt trong s ny. Nh vy, bn s hu 1/100 cng ty. Sau , cng ty pht
hnh thm 100 c phiu na th t l s hu ca bn gim xung cn 1/200. Ni cch
khc, t l s hu ca bn trong cng ty b pha long (diluted) do vic pht hnh c
phiu mi (the issuance of new shares).

Mt v d khc, gi s mt cng ty c 1.000.000 c phiu ang lu hnh v bn mua mt

c phiu ca cng ty. Sau , cng ty mua li v hu b 250.000 c phiu. Vy, t l s
hu ca bn trong cng ty t 1/1.000.000 tng ln 1/750.000.

Lu l cn phn bit r c phiu ang lu hnh, c phiu c php pht hnh

(authorized stock) v c phiu ngn qu (treasury stock).
S lng c phiu c php php hnh, nh tn ca n ch ra, l s lng c phiu
ti a m cng ty c th pht hnh. Quy nh ny t ra nhm trnh tnh trng pha long
qu mc (excessive dilution) t l s hu trong cng ty ca cc c ng hin hu (current
shareholders) . Trong thc tin, c nhiu cng ty khng pht hnh ht s lng c phiu
m n c php .

C phiu ang lu hnh l nhng c phiu m cng ty bn cho cc nh u t v cha

mua li hu b hay cm gi. S lng c phiu ang lu hnh c s dng tnh
ton t l s hu, t l n trn vn (debt-to-equity ratio).
V nhiu l do khc nhau, mt cng ty c th mua li c phiu ca chnh mnh v nm gi
nh cc nh u t bnh thng khc. Cc c phiu ny c gi l c phiu ngn qy v
khng c tnh vo c phiu ang lu hnh.

Ti sao c nhiu ngi u t vo c phiu? Khi mua c phiu, cc nh u t cng

hng ti nhng mc tiu ging nh nhng ngi b tin ra mua hoc khi s doanh
nghip:

1. H tm kim c tc (dividends), c ngha l h hy vng doanh nghip s to ra li

nhun (generate profits) c th phn phi (distribute) cho cc ch s hu;

2. H tm kim li vn (capital gains), c ngha l h hy vng doanh nghip s tng

trng v gi tr (grow in value) v do , h c th bn phn s hu ca mnh vi mc
gi cao hn mc gi m h mua;
3. H tm kim nhng li ch v thu (tax benefits) m lut thu (tax code) dnh cho cc
ch s hu doanh nghip.

i vi cc nh u t khc nhau th tm quan trng ca mi yu t trn cng khc nhau

bi v h khng c cng mt mc ch u t (investment objective). V d, nhng ngi
v hu vn phi sng da ch yu vo thu nhp t cc khon u t s cao vai tr ca
c tc trong khi mt s ngi khc li ch hn n kh nng thu li vn.

* C phiu i chng

Mt trong nhng yu t rt quan trng m nh u t nn cn nhc trc khi quyt nh

u t l tnh i chng ca c phiu (CP). Vy CP i chng l g v nh hng ca CP
i chng i i vi vic u t nh th no?

CP i chng l g?

C th hiu CP i chng l CP c s lng cng chng tham gia u t ng o v

chim mt t l nm gi cao trong tng s CP ph thng ca t chc pht hnh.

Tnh i chng ca CP mt cng ty cng cao khi vn c phn cng ln, t l vn c phn
pht hnh ra bn ngoi cao v c nhiu nh u t bn ngoi tham gia nm gi CP ca
cng ty. Khi son tho Ngh nh 48/N-CP/1998 v chng khon v th trng chng
khon (TTCK), cc nh lm lut rt ch ti kha cnh ny.
Hai trong by iu kin mt cng ty c th pht hnh chng khon ra cng chng l:

Mc vn iu l ti phiu l 10 t ng Vit Nam

Ti thiu 20% vn c phn ca t chc pht hnh phi c bn cho trn 100 ngi u
t ngoi t chc pht hnh. Trng hp vn c phn ca t chc pht hnh t 100 t
ng tr ln th t l ti thiu ny l 15% vn c phn ca t chc pht hnh.
Trn thc t, tnh i chng ca CP cn ph thuc vo mt s yu t sau:

T l c phn ph thng c quyn chuyn nhng t do trn tng s vn c phn: iu

ny lm cho CP c tnh thanh khon cao.
Mc hn ch v thi gian chuyn nhng ca CP (i vi nh u t nc ngoi cng
nh nh u t trong nc).

T l lu k CP: CP nim yt mun mua bn phi c lu k li Trung tm giao dch.

T l lu k thp tc l s lng CP c th tin hnh giao dch c s khng cao.
T l nm gi ti a ca mt t chc, c nhn: Khi iu l cng ty cho php mt t chc
hay c nhn nm gi mt t l cao trong tng s CP th ch cn vi c ng ln tham gia
l khng cn CP bn cho cc c ng nh khc. Thm vo , CP ny d b thn tnh
bi mt t chc hay c nhn nhm phc v cho li ch ring ca h.
Lnh vc hot ng: CP ca cng ty hot ng trong cc lnh vc c bit m nh u t
t c kin thc hay hiu bit v lnh vc ny th s khng thu ht c nhiu nh u t
bng CP ca cng ty hot ng trong cc lnh vc c nhiu ngi bit n.
Tnh hnh hot ng: Mt cng ty hot ng tt, bn vng s c kh nng thu ht nhiu
cng chng u t vo cng ty.

Mc cng khai thng tin: Nh u t s cm thy yn tm hn khi quyt nh u t

vo mt loi chng khon m h c kh nng tm kim c thng tin cn thit v chng
khon ny mt cch d dng v nhanh chng.
ln ca TTCK: Khi quy m ca th trng cn nh, c t hng ho... s kh thu ht
c nhiu cng chng u t v nh u t kh m mua c CP lc cn mua v bn CP
vo thi im thch hp...

C phiu i chng c u im g?

Gi CP dao ng st hn vi gi tr ni ti ca chng: Gi CP dao ng ty thuc vo s

phn on ca s ng m tm l s ng thng chnh xc hn tm l thiu s.
Hn ch c hin tng u c, lng on th trng: Do s lng CP nhiu nn gi vn
ho th trng (gi tr th trng ca cng ty) ln, nh u c kh m c tin lm
khuynh o gi CP.

Hot ng ca cng ty s minh bch hn: Hot ng ca cng ty, cc ng tnh ca cc

nh qun l s c mt lng hng hu cc c ng mt ti nn c th hn ch c
tiu cc xy ra.

C tnh thanh khon cao: Do c s lng CP nhiu v c nhiu nh u t tham gia nn

ti mt thi im no s c nhiu ngi bn v nhiu ngi mua...
Ni chung, tnh i chng ca CP c quyt nh bi rt nhiu yu t. Nng cao tnh i
chng ca CP l mt trong nhng cch doanh nghip qung b v bo v CP ca mnh.

Cc c tnh ca tri phiu chuyn i

Tri phiu c tnh chuyn i (sau y gi tt l tri phiu chuyn i) l tri phiu c th
chuyn thnh c phiu thng vo mt thi im c xc nh trc trong tng lai.
Loi tri phiu ny c c im l c tr mt mc li sut c nh nn c v ging nh
tri phiu nhng mt khc li c th chuyn i thnh loi c phiu thng ca cng ty v
y cng chnh l im hp dn ca tri phiu c tnh chuyn i.

Khi th trng ang pht trin, nh u t thng quan tm nhiu n c phiu (CP) nn
th trng tri phiu (TP) b sa st. tng tnh hp dn vi ngi u t, cc cng ty
pht hnh TP c th thm vo c tnh chuyn i, v cng ty s tr li sut thp hn cho
nh u t s hu loi TP chuyn i ny.

Ngc li, khi th trng TP pht trin, TP c tnh chuyn i s pht huy tc dng nh
mt phng tin tng vn c phn da trn c s tr hon tr n v khi TP chuyn i
bin thnh CP, vn huy ng ca cng ty s thay i t n sang vn.
i vi cng ty pht hnh, TP chuyn i c cc yu t hp dn sau:

1. TP chuyn i c mc li sut thp hn TP khng c tnh chuyn i.

2. Cng ty c th loi tr chi ph tr li c nh khi thc hin chuyn i, v vy s gim

c n.

3. Pht hnh TP chuyn i th cng ty s trnh c tnh trng tng s lng CP mt

cch nhanh chng
trn th trng (iu ny dn ti vic lm cho gi CP thng b st gim).

4. Bng vic pht hnh TP chuyn i thay cho pht hnh CP thng, cng ty s trnh
khi tnh trng lm cho cc khon thu nhp trn mi c phn trc y b gim st.

Bn cnh nhng thun li, TP chuyn i cng gy ra mt s bt li c th c i vi

cng ty v cc c ng ca cng ty:

1. Khi TP c chuyn i, vn ch s hu b "pha long" do tng s CP lu hnh nn

mi c phn by gi i din cho mt t l thp hn ca quyn s hu trong cng ty.

2. Do cc c ng thng tham gia vo vic qun l cng ty nn khi chuyn i c th

gy ra mt s thay i trong vic kim sot cng ty.

3. S gim n cng ty thng qua chuyn i cng c ngha l mt i s cn bng ca cn

cn n vn.

4. Kt qu chuyn i s lm gim chi ph tr li, tc l lm tng thu nhp chu thu ca

cng ty. Do cng ty phi tr thu nhiu hn khi chuyn i.

i vi nh u t khi nm gi TP chuyn i, nh u t s c c li th l s u t
an ton ca th trng, thu nhp c nh v s tng gi tr tim n ca th trng vn. C
th, TP chuyn i hp dn nh u t mt s c im:

1. TP chuyn i cng ging TP thng, tc l cng c thanh ton tin li vi mt li

sut c nh v s c mua li vi gi bng mnh gi vo lc o hn. Theo nguyn tc
th thu nhp t li sut TP thng cao hn v chc chn hn thu nhp t c tc trn CP
thng.

2. Ngi nm gi TP chuyn i c quyn u tin hn cc c ng nm gi CP thng

khi cng ty ph sn v b thanh l.

3. Gi th trng ca TP chuyn i s c chiu hng n nh hn gi CP thng trong

thi k th trng sa st. Gi tr ca TP chuyn i trn th trng s c h tr bi cc
li sut hin hnh ca nhng TP cnh tranh khc.
4. V TP chuyn i c th c chuyn thnh CP thng nn gi tr th trng ca chng
s c chiu hng tng nu gi CP tng.

5. Khi TP chuyn i c chuyn i sang CP thng th khng c coi l mt s mua

bn nn s khng phi chu thu trong giao dch chuyn i.

Nhng nh ph bnh th cho rng TP chuyn i khng a ra c cc mc li sut

tng ng vi s thiu bo ton vn (nhng TP khng c tnh chuyn i a ra cc mc
li sut cao hn) v c xu hng ko gi CP thng xung bi v nh hng ca s "pha
long" c th xy ra.

Khi TP c tnh chuyn i c pht hnh mi th bao gi gi chuyn i cng lun cao
hn gi th trng hin hnh ca CP thng, iu ny s gip hn ch vic nh u t
chuyn i TP ngay lp tc. Nhng yu t nh hng n t l chuyn i hoc gi
chuyn i ban u l:

1. Gi CP ti thi im TP c pht hnh.

2. Thu nhp d tnh ca t chc pht hnh v nh hng ca n trn gi CP.

3. Xu hng th trng (TP chuyn i s tr nn a chung i vi cc nh u t trong

mt th trng CP ang ln).

4. Thi gian chuyn i (thi gian cng di, t l chuyn i ban u cng t thch hp).
V TP chuyn i c th lm "pha long" vn nn cc c ng s c quyn u tin mua
TP chuyn i c pht hnh mi vi gi u tin thp hn gi tr th trng ca TP .
Khi TP chuyn i mi c pht hnh, cc c ng hin hu s nhn c giy chng
nhn quyn u tin mua TP ny. Ngi nm gi quyn c th bn li quyn ny nu h
khng s dng chng mua TP chuyn i.

Tuy nhin nh u t cn lu mt iu l, nu cng ty phi ngng hot ng bi nhng

tnh hung nh st nhp, hp nht hay gii th th nhng ngi nm gi TP chuyn i s
b mt c quyn chuyn i ny.

Cc TP u c gi tr u t d cho chng c tnh chuyn i hay khng. Gi tr u t

ca TP khng c tnh chuyn i c cn c vo t l % li sut ca chng khi so snh
vi nhng mc li sut ca cc u t khc c cng mc ri ro tng t. Gi tr u t
c tnh ca mt TP c tnh chuyn i chnh l gi th trng m ti gi , TP s c
bn nu TP khng chuyn i thnh CP thng.

Khi nh u t mua TP c tnh chuyn i th phi lun xem xt hai gi tr u t ca TP

ny, l thu nhp ca TP v vic chuyn i TP thnh CP. Gi tr chuyn i ca TP l
tng gi tr th trng ca CP thng m TP c th chuyn i c. i khi cc cng ty
t ra nhng iu kin khuyn khch s chuyn i ca TP, mc d iu ny c bit
n nh l s chuyn i p buc nhng thc t cc nh u t khng th b p buc
chuyn i. Tuy nhin, nh pht hnh lun thay i cc tnh hung khuyn khch s
chuyn i hn. Mt trong nhng phng cch l thc hin mua li TP.
Cng ty c th mua li TP ti mc gi v ngy mua c xc nh trc (gi nh rng
TP chuyn i cng c kh nng mua li ging nh c tnh chuyn i) v khi cc iu
kin th trng khin cho cc tri ch nhn thy s chuyn i TP c th c li nhun hn
l bn chng li cho cng ty pht hnh ti gi mua li ca cng ty th lc h s thc
hin vic chuyn i thnh CP thng.

V d, mt TP chuyn i c mnh gi 1.000 USD c th c chuyn thnh CP thng

ti gi 25 USD (t l chuyn i l 40 i 1) v TP ny c mua li mc gi 1.050
USD. CP thng trn th trng hin ang c giao dch mc gi 30 USD, bng vic
chuyn i mt TP m nh u t c th tr thnh ch s hu 40 CP thng vi tng gi
tr l 1.200 USD. Nh vy, tri ch chuyn i chng thnh 40 CP thng ri bn chng
c 1.200 USD hn l bn li TP chuyn i ny mc gi 1.050 USD.
V nguyn tc, nh pht hnh khng c p buc bt c tri ch no chuyn i m h
ch c quyn to ra cc iu kin s chp nhn chuyn i s tr thnh s la chn
ti u cho tri ch. Nu cng ty pht hnh c quy nh iu khon mua li ton b TP
chuyn i pht hnh th cng ty s n nh trc gi v ngy mua li. Khi ngy gi mua
li n gn, gi CP thng s c giao dch ngy cng gn hn vi gi mua li ca TP
chuyn i ri cui cng gi ca CP thng s c giao dch ti gi th trng thp
hn cht t so vi gi gi mua li nhm trnh tnh trng tri ch chuyn i thnh CP
thng.

Pht hnh CK ln u ra cng chng (IPO).

Khi nim pht hnh ln u ra cng chng (IPO) ch c hiu i vi vic pht hnh c
phiu. Do vy sau y, chng ta s ch yu cp n vic pht hnh c phiu ln u ra
cng chng.

1. iu kin pht hnh chng khon ln u ra cng chng:

Mi nc c nhng qui nh ring cho vic pht hnh chng khon ln u ra cng
chng. Tuy nhin, pht hnh chng khon ra cng chng thng thng t chc pht
hnh phi m bo nm iu kin c bn sau:

- V qui m vn: t chc pht hnh phi p ng c yu cu v vn iu l ti thiu

ban u, v sau khi pht hnh phi t c mt t l phn trm nht
nh v vn c phn do cng chng nm gi v s lng cng chng tham gia.

- V tnh lin tc ca hot ng sn xut kinh doanh: cng ty c thnh lp v hot ng

trong vng mt thi gian nht nh (thng khong t 3 n 5 nm).

- V i ng qun l cng ty: cng ty phi c i ng qun l tt, c nng lc v trnh

qun l cc hot ng sn xut, kinh doanh ca cng ty.
- V hiu qu sn xut kinh doanh: cng ty phi lm n c li vi mc li nhun khng
thp hn mc qui nh v trong mt s nm lin tc nht nh (thng t 2-3 nm).

- V tnh kh thi ca d n: cng ty phi c d n kh thi trong vic s dng ngun vn

huy ng c.
Tuy nhin, cc nc ang pht trin thng cho php mt s trng hp ngoi l, tc l
c nhng doanh nghip s c min gim mt s iu kin nu trn, v d: doanh nghip
hot ng trong lnh vc cng ch, h tng c s c th c min gim iu kin v hiu
qu sn xut kinh doanh.

Vit Nam, theo qui nh ca Ngh nh 48/1998/-N-CP v chng khon v th trng

chng khon v Thng t 01/1998/TT-UBCK hng dn Ngh nh 48/1998/-N-CP, t
chc pht hnh pht hnh c phiu ln u ra cng chng phi p ng c cc iu
kin sau:

- Mc vn iu l ti thiu l 10 t ng Vit Nam;

- Hot ng kinh doanh c li trong 2 nm lin tc gn nht;

- Thnh vin Hi ng qun tr v Gim c (Tng gim c) c kinh nghim qun l

kinh doanh.

- C phng n kh thi v vic s dng vn thu c t t pht hnh c phiu.

- Ti thiu 20% vn c phn ca t chc pht hnh phi c bn cho trn 100 ngi u
t ngoi t chc pht hnh; trng hp vn c phn ca t chc pht hnh t 100 t ng
tr ln th t l ti thiu ny l 15% vn c phn ca t chc pht hnh.

- C ng sng lp phi nm gi t nht 20% vn c phn ca t chc pht hnh v phi

nm gi mc ny ti thiu 3 nm k t ngy kt thc t pht hnh.

- Trng hp c phiu pht hnh c tng gi tr theo mnh gi vt 10 t ng th phi c

t chc bo lnh pht hnh.

2. Nhng im thun li v bt li khi pht hnh chng khon ra cng chng.

a. Nhng im thun li

- Pht hnh chng khon ra cng chng s to ra hnh nh p v s ni ting ca cng

ty, nh vy cng ty s d dng hn v tn t chi ph hn trong vic huy ng vn qua pht
hnh tri phiu, c phiu nhng ln sau. Thm vo , khch hng v nh cung ng ca
cng ty thng cng s tr thnh c ng ca cng ty v do vy cng ty s rt c li
trong vic mua nguyn liu v tiu th sn phm.

- Pht hnh chng khon ra cng chng s lm tng gi tr ti sn rng, gip cng ty c
c ngun vn ln v c th vay vn ca ngn hng vi li sut u i hn cng nh
cc iu khon v ti sn cm c s t phin h hn. V d nh cc c phiu ca cc cng
ty i chng d dng c chp nhn l ti sn cm c cho cc khon vay ngn hng.
Ngoi ra, vic pht hnh chng khon ra cng chng cng gip cng ty tr thnh mt ng
c vin hp dn hn i vi cc cng ty nc ngoi vi t cch lm i tc lin doanh.

- Pht hnh chng khon ra cng chng gip cng ty c th thu ht v duy tr i ng
nhn vin gii bi v khi cho bn chng khon ra cng chng, cng ty bao gi cng
dnh mt t l chng khon nht nh bn cho nhn vin ca mnh. Vi quyn mua c
phiu, nhn vin ca cng ty s tr thnh c ng, v c hng li trn vn thay v thu
nhp thng thng. iu ny lm cho nhn vin ca cng ty lm vic c hiu qu hn
v coi s thnh bi ca cng ty thc s l thnh bi ca mnh.

- Pht hnh chng khon ra cng chng, cng ty c c hi tt xy dng mt h thng

qun l chuyn nghip cng nh xy dng c mt chin lc pht trin r rng. Cng
ty cng d dng hn trong vic tm ngi thay th, nh m to ra c tnh lin tc
trong qun l. Bn cnh , s hin din ca cc u vin qun tr khng trc tip tham gia
iu hnh cng ty cng gip tng cng kim tra v cn i trong qun l v iu hnh
cng ty.

- Pht hnh chng khon ra cng chng lm tng cht lng v chnh xc ca cc bo
co ca cng ty bi v cc bo co ca cng ty phi c lp theo cc tiu chun chung
do c quan qun l qui nh. Chnh iu ny lm cho vic nh gi v so snh kt qu
hot ng ca cng ty c thc hin d dng v chnh xc hn.

b. Nhng im bt li

- Pht hnh c phiu ra cng chng lm phn tn quyn s hu v c th lm mt quyn

kim sot cng ty ca cc c ng sng lp do hot ng thn tn cng ty. Bn cnh ,
c cu v quyn s hu ca cng ty lun lun b bin ng do chu nh hng ca cc
giao dch c phiu hng ngy.

- Chi ph pht hnh chng khon ra cng chng cao, thng chim t 8-10% khon vn
huy ng, bao gm cc chi ph bo lnh pht hnh, ph t vn php lut, chi ph in n, ph
kim ton, chi ph nim yt Ngoi ra, hng nm cng ty cng phI chu thm cc khon
chi ph ph nh chi ph kim ton cc bo co ti chnh , chi ph cho vic chun b ti liu
np cho c quan qun l nh nc v chng khon v chi ph cng b thng tin nh k.

- Cng ty pht hnh chng khon ra cng chng phi tun th mt ch cng b thng
tin rng ri, nghim ngt v chu s gim st cht ch hn so vi cc cng ty khc. Hn
na, vic cng b cc thng tin v doanh thu, li nhun, v tr cnh tranh, phng thc
hot ng, cc hp ng nguyn liu, cng nh nguy c b r r thng tin mt ra ngoi c
th a cng ty vo v tr cnh tranh bt li.

- i ng cn b qun l cng ty phi chu trch nhim ln hn trc cng chng. Ngoi
ra, do qui nh ca php lut, vic chuyn nhng vn c phn ca h thng b hn
ch.20.700 .
Cc h s hot ng

Cc h s hot ng xc nh tc m mt cng ty c th to ra c tin mt nu c

nhu cu pht sinh. R rng l mt cng ty c kh nng chuyn i hng d tr v cc
khon phi thu thnh tin mt nhanh hn s c tc huy ng tin mt nhanh hn. Cc
h s sau y v vic tnh ton c thit lp da trn gi nh rng mt nm c 360
ngy.

a. H s thu hi n trung bnh:

Vic tm ra k thu hi n bn hng trung bnh ca mt cng ty s cho bn bit cng ty

phi mt bao lu chuyn cc khon phi thu thnh tin mt. Lu rng doanh s bn
thu tin ngay c loi khi tng doanh thu.

K thu hi n trung bnh = Cc khon phi thu / (Doanh s bn chu hng nm /360
ngy).

Cng nh cc h s khc, k thu hi n trung bnh phi c xem xt trong mi lin h

vi cc thng tin khc. Nu chnh sch ca cng ty l bn chu cho khch hng trong
vng 38 ngy th thi hn 45.8 ngy cho thy l cng ty gp kh khn trong vic thu hi
n ng hn v cn xem xt li chnh sch bn chu ca mnh. Ngc li, nu chnh sch
thng thng ca cng ty l n nh thi hn thu hi n l 55 ngy, th thi hn trung
bnh 45.8 ngy cho thy chnh sch thu hi n ca cng ty l c hiu qu.

Cn ch l h s thu hi n trung bnh ch l mt s trung bnh v c th dn n s

hiu nhm. V d, xem xt cng ty A v b, c cng gi tr cc khon phi thu nhng c
thi biu thu hi n khc nhau.

b. H s thanh ton trung bnh

i lp vi cc khon phi thu l cc khon phi tr. tm ra thi hn thanh ton trung
bnh i vi cc khon phi thu, ta chia cc khon phi tr cho tin mua hng chu mi
nm

Thi hn thanh ton trung bnh = Cc khon phi tr / (Tin mua chu hng nm/360
ngy).

c. H s hng lu kho

H s hng lu kho biu th s lng hng bn trn s hng cn lu kho, h s ny cho

thy kh nng dng vn vo cc hng ho lun chuyn cao, trnh c lu kho bi cc
mt hng km tnh lu hot.
H s hng lu kho = Gi tr hng bn tnh theo gi mua / Gi tr hng lu kho trung
bnh.

d. H s n

Phn nh tnh trng n hin thi ca cng ty, c tc ng n ngun vn hot ng v

lung thu nhp thng qua chi tr vn vay v li sut khi o hn. Tnh trng n ca cng
ty c th hin qua cc h s: h s n; h s thu nhp tr li nh k; h s trang tri
chung.

H s n hay t l n trn ti sn cho bit phn trm tng ti sn c ti tr bng n. H

s n cng thp th hiu ng n by ti chnh cng t v ngc li h s n cng cao th
hiu ng n by ti chnh cng cao.

H s n = Tng s n/Tng ti sn

e. H s n trn vn c phn

H s n c phn nh thng qua h s n trn vn c phn (D/E) v h s n di hn

trn tng ti sn (LD/TA). H s n trn vn c phn biu th tng quan gia n di hn
v vn c phn. Mc cao thp ca h s ny ph thuc vo tng lnh vc kinh t khc
nhau.

H s n di hn trn tng ti sn (LD/TA) so snh tng quan n vi tng ti sn ca

mt cng ty, v c th cho bit nhng thng tin hu ch v mc ti tr cho ti sn bng
n di hn ca mt cng ty, h s ny c th dng nh gi hiu ng n by ti chnh
ca mt cng ty.

H s n trn vn c phn (D/E)= (N di hn + Gi tr ti sn i thu)/ Vn c phn.

f. H s thu nhp tr li nh k.

H s thu nhp tr li nh k. Vic tm xem mt cng ty c th thc hin tr li n mc

no cng rt quan trng, v ngi ta s dng h s thu nhp tr li nh k. H s
ny nh gi kh nng s dng thu nhp hot ng (thu nhp trc thu v li- EBIT)
tr li ca mt cng ty, h s ny cho bit cng ty c kh nng p ng c cc ngha v
tr n li n mc no, thng thng h s thu nhp tr li nh k cng cao th kh nng
thanh ton li ca cng ty cho cc ch n cng ln.

H s thu nhp tr li nh k= EBIT/ Chi ph tr li hng nm..

Chuyn nhng c phn v th trng chng khon

Thnh lp cng ty c phn, mua bn c phiu l cng c hu hiu thc hin x hi ha
u t. Nh nc to c ch thun li cho vic chuyn nhng c phiu; trong ch
trng bo v li ch cho ngi mua.
Cng ty c phn - x hi ha u t

X hi ha u t l vic Nh nc to ra thi c thun li mi ngi, mi t chc c

th thc hin c tng u t ca mnh, lm cho h tr thnh ch nhn tht s ca
nn kinh t. X hi ha u t nhm khai thc tim nng sng to ca ton x hi, tim
nng cht xm ca ton x hi c huy ng trong nn kinh t, lm cho kho tng cht
xm ca x hi ngy cng phong ph.

X hi ha u t to nn c hi huy ng vn phong ph, a dng, to ra c hi s dng

ngun lc x hi mt cch linh hot v hiu qu. X hi ha u t tht s l thc hin
dn ch ha nn kinh t, ngi lao ng c c hi tr thnh ngi ch tht s, c c hi
gim st cc hot ng qun l, cho php tm ra ngi qun l tt nht, hiu qu nht, to
ra ng lc mi cho s pht trin ca ton x hi.

Cng ty c phn l cng c hu hiu thc hin x hi ha u t, mi c nhn, t chc,

khng tr mt ai u c c c hi nh nhau thc hin tng u t vi th tc ht
sc n gin l mua c phn ca cng ty c phn, khi h l c ng v c kh nng
th hin ch ca mnh thng qua i hi ng c ng.

Chuyn nhng c phn

vic mua c phn c d dng, thun li, lut php quy nh cc c ng c

quyn t do chuyn nhng c phn cho ngi khc (tr mt s trng hp v iu kin
php lut quy nh nhm bo v li ch ngi mua). Quy nh c ng t do chuyn
nhng c phn to nn th trng vn, th trng chng khon. Lung vn u t x
hi s c lun chuyn trn th trng, iu to ra c hi cho cc nh u t thay i,
iu chnh mc tiu u t ht sc d dng, to cho nhng ai c tng u t vo mt
lnh vc no , c iu kin thc hin tng u t ca mnh thng qua vic mua c
phn n mc ln c th iu hnh c cng ty.

Nu nh gi tr doanh nghip c xc nh chnh xc, hp l, th vic mt s ngi no

c th tr gi rt cao c phn ca cng ty no c quyn s hu v iu hnh
cng ty c phn l vic ht sc bnh thng. Vic thay i cc c ng trong cng ty c
phn cng l iu bnh thng, l du hiu pht trin cng ty. Vic chuyn nhng c
phn mt cch thun li chnh l to iu kin cho cng ty c phn thu ht c nng lc
u t ca x hi: tin vn v tri thc.

T thc t nu trn cho thy, Nh nc cn to c ch bn, mua c phn ht sc thun li

cho ngi dn thc hin.

Vic chuyn nhng c phn gia cc c ng c th c tin hnh bng hnh thc trc
tip v gin tip.
Chuyn nhng trc tip

Cc c ng c th chuyn nhng c phn cho nhau, cho ngi khc ngoi cng ty
thng qua vic trao i trc tip, y ngi mua c iu kin trc tip xc nh, nh
gi cht lng hng ha, v trc tip tr gi cho ngi bn. Hnh vi chuyn nhng ny
do hai bn mua bn t tha thun theo quy nh giao dch dn s.

bo v li ch cho ngi mua c phn l ngi khng tham gia thnh lp cng ty c
phn, khng bit c thc trng cng ty khi mi thnh lp, lut doanh nghip quy
nh iu kin hn ch i vi ngi bn l nhng c ng sng lp cng ty. Khon 1
iu 58 Lut doanh nghip quy nh: Trong thi hn ba nm u, k t ngy cng ty
c cp giy chng nhn ng k kinh doanh, cc c ng sng lp phi cng nhau nm
gi t nht 20% s c phn ph thng c quyn cho bn. C phn ph thng ca cc
c ng sng lp c th chuyn nhng cho ngi khng phi l c ng nu c s
chp thun ca i hi ng c ng. C ng d nh chuyn nhng c phn khng c
quyn biu quyt v vic chuyn nhng cc c phn . Sau thi hn ba nm cc quy
nh ny ht hiu lc.

Quy nh cc c ng sng lp phi cng nhau nm gi t nht 20% s c phn ph thng

c quyn cho bn l quy nh bt buc c tnh cng nhc rng buc ngha v vt cht
ca cc c ng sng lp i vi ngi mua, trnh tnh trng tuyn truyn la o thu
ht ngi mua.

Quy nh chuyn nhng c phn cho ngi ngoi cng ty l quy nh mm mang tnh
tha thun gia cc c ng trong cng ty. Vic tha thun ny c th c quy nh
trong iu l cng ty hoc trong ngh quyt hp i hi ng c ng. Nh vy cc c
ng sng lp c th quy nh mt s ngi phi gi 20% s c phn hoc quy nh
mi ngi phi gi 20% c phn. Do vy khi nh gi s vi phm v vic chuyn nhng
c phn trong ba nm u ca cng ty c phn cn xem xt ba iu kin sau:

C ng sng lp l ai? Tng s c phn cc c ng sng lp s hu trong sut thi gian

ba nm u c di 20% hay khng? Vic chuyn nhng c ng iu l khng?

Nu cc cng ty c phn c thnh lp trc khi Lut doanh nghip c hiu lc th phi
cn c vo iu l cng ty v lut cng ty, vic vn dng Lut doanh nghip khng c
p t hi t m ch l mt s gii thch.

Lut cng ty khng nh ngha sng lp vin th khng th p t khi nim sng lp vin
trong Lut doanh nghip suy lun xc nh li ca cng ty hay li ca cc c ng.
Khi ch cn c vo iu l xc nh vic chuyn nhng c phn c ph hp vi
iu l hay khng.

Vic chuyn nhng gin tip

Cc cng ty c phn c bn c phn trn th trng chng khon phi tun th cc iu

kin nghim ngt v tnh minh bch ti chnh, v kh nng sinh li, phi c y ban
chng khon thm nh v phi tun th cc quy tc kim ton theo php lut v chng
khon.

Nhng quy nh cht ch ny nhm mc ch bo v li ch cho ngi mua, v khi cc

cng ty nim yt bn c phn trn th trng th ngi mua khng c iu kin trc tip
kim tra, nh gi cht lng hng ha. S can thip ca Nh nc trong vic thm nh
cc cng ty c phn ng k bn c phn l mt chng thc tin cy ngi mua tr gi
mua hng. Ngi mua thc hin vic mua c phn ch qua cc thng tin c Nh
nc kim nh, ngi mua khng nhn thy hng ha c th, nu cc thng tin ny b sai
lch th c rt nhiu ri ro i vi ngi mua. iu ny cho thy php lut v chng
khon cn phi ht sc c th, phi c thc hin y bo v li ch cng ng
ngi mua.

Bo gi chng khon: Cch bo gi v hiu lc ca gi

Mt bo gi in hnh c th din t theo cc cch nh: "thu vo l8.000 - bn ra l8.200",

hoc "mua l8.000 - bn ra 18.200", hoc gn hn " l 8.000 - l 8.200). y ta thy khon
lch gi l 200 - ta c th gi l lch hai gi theo cch ca Vit Nam. Gi nh ta c bn
nh to gi ang bo gi cho Cng ty Thin Nam, nh minh ho di:

Nh to gi Thu vo Bn ra Quy m mua bn

Cty CK BVSC 20.800 21.200 1.000 x 1.000
Cty CK BSC 20.700 21.100 2.000 x 2.000
Cty CK ACBS 20.700 21.300 2.000 x 3.000
Cty CK TDMS 20.600 21.400 200 x 4.000

Nu c mt lnh mua 800 c phn ca Thin Nam, nh kinh doanh CK s mua ca Cng
ty CK BSC, v c gi bn ra thp nht, c th l 21.100. V lng mua t (ch c
800 c phn) trong khi quy m cho bn l 2.000 c phn, nn sau khi giao dch BSC vn
cn li l.200 c phn c th s c bn theo gi nu nh c l 21.100 .

Nu gi nh Cng ty CK kia nhn c tng lng t mua theo lnh khng phi l 800
m ln n 4.000 c phn, ta xem nh kinh doanh trn th trng OTC ny s hnh x th
no? Trc tin h s lin h mua ca BSC trc s lng 2.000 vi gi 21.100 . Sau
khi m gn lng cho bn ca BSC v cn n 2.000 c phiu cn mua h xoay sang
Cng ty CK BVSC mua 1.000 c phn vi gi 21.200 . Nh vy gi th trng c
phiu ca Thin Nam tng ln mt gi, t 21.100 ln 2l.200. Nhng vn cha xong,
nh kinh doanh phi cy n Cng ty CK ACBS mua cho thm 1.000 c phn na,
gi by gi l 2l.300 , giao dch cui cng ny y gi th trng ln thm mt gi
na, ln 21.300 . Ta thy, kt thc giao dch ny CK c th nhanh chng vt ln hai gi.

Vi yu cu mua 4.000 CP, m cng ty BSC c (hoc d) bn cho nh kinh doanh

cng lc vi gi 21.100 , th h s chng g ca thm hai nh to gi khc, v gi th
trng s chng tng. Trng hp ngc li, gi nh nu c mt lnh bn 4.000 CK
trong th trng OTC, th theo bi cnh ang c minh ho, nh kinh doanh s thc hin
bn theo th t: trc tin 1.000 c phn cho Cng ty CK BVSC, v ti y c gi thu vo
cao nht: 20.800 . K h s bn ra cho cc cng ty ACBS v BSC 3.000 c phn cn
li vi g 20.700 . Kt qu mua bn nh vy y gi thu vo (bid) ca th trng t
20.800 xung mt gi.

Cc ch s chng khon "ni" g?

u t chng khon khng ch cn c kin thc v ti chnh, m iu quan trng l cn

nhy bn v c kh nng phn tch tng hp. i vi cc chuyn gia lo luyn trn th
trng chng khon, ri ro v thua l trong u t c phiu l iu khng th chp nhn
c. V hn ch ri ro n mc thp nht, mt trong s cc cng thc thnh cng ca
nhng nh u t chuyn nghip m bn nn p dng l thng xuyn kim tra v phn
tch ch s gi c phiu trn th trng.

Lc sinh thi, nh bc hc ni ting bc nht th k XX Albert Enstein, cha ca thuyt

tng i, c nhn danh hiu Ngi c b c c o v thng minh nht hnh
tinh. Nhng cho n cui i, Albert Enstein vn khng ht ngc nhin v s k diu
ca cc li sut v nhng tnh ton rc ri trn th trng chng khon. Ch s gi c
phiu s l mt trong nhng s phc tp n kh hiu i vi nhng ngi mun tm hiu
v cc thng tin u t chng khon

Ch s gi c phiu l thng tin rt quan trong i vi hot ng ca th trng, i vi

nh u t v nh gi kinh t bi n th hin tnh hnh hot ng ca th trng chng
khon. Tt c cc th trng chng khon u xy dng h thng ch s gi c phiu cho
ring mnh.

Ch s gi c phiu l thng tin th hin gi chng khon bnh qun hin ti so vi gi

bnh qun thi k gc chn. Gi bnh qun thi k gc thng c ly l 100 hoc
1.000. V d, khi thng bo v th trng chng khon cp n ch s gi chng khon
Hn Quc KOSPI ngy 9/1/2003 l 440.78 im, tc l ng ni v ch s gi c phiu
ca ngy ny so vi gc chn l ngy 4/1/1980 vi gi gc l 100. So snh gi tr ch
s gia hai thi im khc nhau, ta c mc bin i gi gia hai thi im . Nu tr
gi ch s KOSPI ngy 10/1/2003 l 445.28, c ngha l th trng Hn Quc c du
hiu phc hi vi ch s KOSPI tng 5.5 im trong ngy. Nu em con s ny so snh
vi gi ng ca hm trc v nhn vi 100, ta s c s bin i theo % (5.5/440.78) x
100 = 1.25%).

Ch s gi c phiu c tnh cho tng c phiu v c nim yt trn bo ch: c th l

ch s cho tt c c phiu trn th trng ca mt quc gia, nh ch s gi Hangseng ca
Hng Kng, ch s gi c phiu tng hp ca Hn Quc (KOSPI); c th l ch s cho
tng ngnh, nhm ngnh, nh ch s gi c phiu ngnh cng nghip ca M (DJIA)
hoc cho trng quc t nh ch s Hangseng Chu (HSAI), ch s Dow Joness quc t
(DJWSI)
Mt s yu t sau cng thng c thng k, tng hp i vi ch s gi v thng bo
rng ri: ch s gi ngy no , ngy so vi ngy trc , so vi u nm; ch s gi
cao nht, thp nht trong nm, s c phiu c ch s tng trong k v gim trong k v
phn tch bin ng theo ngnh Mt s ch s gi chng khon thng c thng bo
trn cc phng tin thng tin i chng.

Cc ch s ca th trng chng khon Nht Bn

Ch s NIKKEI 225: l ch s tng hp c phiu vi quyn s gi c ca 225 c phiu

thuc s giao dch chng khon Tokyo v 250 c phiu thuc s giao dch Osaka do Thi
bo kinh t Nht tnh ton v cng b. Ch s ny cn c gi l ch s NIKKEI Dow v
phng php tnh ca n nh phng php tnh cc ch s DowJones.

Ch s TOPIX: ch s ny tnh cho tt c chng khon quan trng nim yt ti th trng

chng khon Tokyo. Thi im gc l 4/1/1968 vi gi tr gc l 100.

Cc ch s ca th trng chng khon Anh

Ch s FT-30: l ch s gi 30 c phiu cng nghip hng u ca th trng chng khon

London. Ch s ny c cng b mi gi k t 10 gi sng n 3 gi chiu v ti thi
im ng ca s giao dch chng khon London. Thi gian gc l nm 1935 vi tr gi
gc l 100.

Ch s FT-100: l ch s gi ca 100 c phiu hng u ti S giao dch chng khon

London. Ngy gc l 3/1/1984 vi tr gi gc l 1.000.

Cc ch s ca th trng chng khon M

Ch s Dow Jones ni chung c hiu l ch s gi chng khon bnh qun ca th

trng chng khon New York, mt th trng ln nht th gii hin nay, l ch s gi
chung ca 65 chng khon i din, thuc nhm hng u (Blue chip) trong cc chng
khon c nim yt ti S giao dch chng khon New York. Ch s Dow Jones bao
hm 3 ch s thuc 3 nhm ngnh: cng nghip DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average),
vn ti DJTA (Dow Jones Transportation Average) v dch v DJUA (Dow Jones
Utilities Average).

Ch s DJIA: l ch s lu i nht M do ng Charles H.Dow, cng vi cng ty mang

tn ng, thu thp gi ng ca ca chng khon tnh ra v cng b trn Wall Street
Journal t nm 1896. Ban u, cng ty ch tnh gi bnh qun ca 12 c phiu. Ngy tnh
u tin l ngy 26/5/1896 vi mc gi bnh qun ngy ny l 40.94 USD. Nm 1916,
ng m rng ra 20 c phiu v nm 1928 tng ln 30 c phiu. S lng ny c gi
vng cho n ngy nay. Nhm Top 30 ny thng xuyn c s thay i. Khi cng ty no
sa st n khng tiu chun c th c xp vo Top 30 ca cc c phiu Blue
Chip, cng ty lp tc s b thay th bng mt cng ty khc ang trn tng trng.
Cng ty duy nht lun c mt trong Top 30 k t bui s khai ca th trng chng khon
l General Electric.
Ch s DJTA: c cng b ln u tin vo ngy 26/10/1896. Cho n 2/1/1970, ch s
ny vn mang tn ch s cng nghip ng st, v trong khong thi gian ny, ngnh
ng st pht trin rt mnh v ng st chnh l phng tin vn ti ch yu. Ch s
DJTA bao gm 20 c phiu ca 20 cng ty vn ti, i din cho ngnh ng st, ng
thu v hng khng, c nim yt ti S giao dch chng khon New York. T nm
1970 n nay, ch s ny tr thnh mt b phn ca ch s DowJones. Mc d st nhp
vi Dow Jones v khng c mt trn th trng chng khon, nhng mt s cc cng ty
thuc ngnh ng st M vn tnh ton nh k ch s DJTA cho ring mnh nhm nh
gi thc trng hot ng trong ni b ngnh.

Ch s DJUA: l ch s ngnh dch v cng cng, c cng b trn Wall Street Journal
t thng 1 nm 1929. Ch s ny c tnh t gi ng ca chng khon ca 15 cng ty
ln nht trong ngnh kh t v in.

Tuy ch c 65 c phiu nhng khi lng giao dch ca chng chim n hn 3/4 khi
lng ca th trng chng khon New York, v th, ch s Dow Jones thng phn nh
ng xu th bin ng gi ca th trng chng khon M.

Ch s gi chng khon ni chung, ch s Dow Jones ni ring, c coi l nhit k o

tnh trng sc kho ca nn kinh t, x hi. Thng thng, nn kinh t tng trng th ch
s ny tng v ngc li. Tuy nhin, gi chng khon ni ring, hay gi ca th trng
ni chung, u l kt qu c tng hp t hng lot yu t nh: cc yu t kinh t v m,
cc yu t ca mi trng u t... nht l yu t tm l ca ngi u t. Nhiu khi, cc
du hiu tng trng ca nn kinh t mi ch thp thong xa, mc lc quan ca nh u
t c th rt cao v h ua nhau i mua chng khon, y gi ln cao. Ngc li, c
th tnh hnh cha n ni ti t, nhng mi ngi hong ht bn ra t lm gi chng
khon gim mnh. V d, cch y cha y 2 thng, sau khi c tin cn bo Katrina e
do hot ng cng nghip khai thc du ti Vnh Mheco, ch s Down Jones gim
gn 76 im. Nguyn nhn l cc nh u t bn ra mt s lng c phiu kh ln v
lo ngi cc c phiu cng nghip s mt gi sau khi cn bo i qua. Nhng trn thc t,
khng c c phiu cng nghip no st gim c, bi v cc cng ty ch ng i ph
kp thi vi cn bo.

Qu tht, kinh doanh chng khon khng phi l vic n gin v th trng chng khon
khng phi l ch cho nhng tay m, bi v ri ro c th p n bt c lc no m ngay
c nhng ngi d c kinh nghim n u cng kh trnh khi. hn ch ri ro n
mc thp nht, mt trong nhng li khuyn ca cc nh u t lo luyn l bn nn lun
theo di st sao cc ch s gi c phiu trong ngy.

Bn co bch

1. Bn co bch l g?
Khi pht hnh chng khon ra cng chng, cng ty pht hnh phi cng b cho ngi
mua chng khon nhng thng tin v bn thn cng ty, nu r nhng cam kt ca cng ty
v nhng quyn li c bn ca ngi mua chng khon... trn c s ngi u t c
th ra quyt nh u t hay khng. Ti liu phc v cho mc ch gi l Bn co bch
hay Bn cng b thng tin.

Bn co bch chnh l mt li mi hay cho bn cng chng u t ng k hoc mua

chng khon ca cng ty pht hnh. Bn co bch bao gm mi thng tin lin quan n
t pht hnh. Do , thng tin a ra trong Bn co bch s gn vi cc iu khon thc
hin li mi hay cho bn.

Thng thng, mt cng ty mun pht hnh chng khon phi lp Bn co bch U
ban Chng khon Nh nc xem xt, gi l Bn co bch s b. Bn co bch s b khi
c U ban Chng khon Nh nc chp thun s c coi l Bn co bch chnh
thc. Khi thc hin cho bn chng khon, ngoi Bn co bch chnh thc, cng ty pht
hnh thng cung cp Bn co bch tm tt. Ni dung Bn co bch tm tt l tm gn
li nhng ni dung chnh ca Bn co bch chnh thc nhng vn phi m bo tun th
theo cc quy nh ca U ban Chng khon Nh nc.

2. Ti sao cn phi c Bn co bch

Bn co bch l mt ti liu rt quan trng.Vi t cch l mt nh u t, Bn co bch l

phng tin gip bn nh gi mc sinh li v trin vng ca cng ty trc khi bn
quyt nh c u t vo cng ty hay khng. Mt quyt nh thiu thng tin c th lm
bn phi tr gi t.

Bi vy, bn nn c Bn co bch mt cch k lng v tm hiu r nhng may ri thc

s ca cng ty trc khi ra quyt nh u t. Bn nn nh gi cn thn nhng yu t c
bn ca cng ty ng k nim yt thng qua nghin cu cc thng tin trong Bn co bch.
Mc d nhng t cho bn ln u ra cng chng thng l c hi u t tt v chng
thng mang li li nhun ban u cao, do c phiu tng gi, nhng ri ro vn tn ti.

3. Bn co bch thng gm 8 mc chnh sau:

Trang ba;
Tm tt Bn co bch;
Cc nhn t ri ro;
Cc khi nim;
Chng khon pht hnh;
Cc i tc lin quan ti t pht hnh;
Tnh hnh v c im ca t chc pht hnh;
Ph lc.

4. Cch s dng bn co bch

Bn nn bt u phn tch mt cng ty pht hnh bng Bn co bch ca cng ty. Trong
qu trnh thc hin bn nn t t ra cho mnh mt s cu hi quan trng. V d, vic
kinh doanh ca cng ty c tin trin hay khng?, doanh s bn hng tng c ngha l
li nhun cng tng v dn ti gi c phiu tng. Nhng cc con s cha phi ni ln tt
c. Do vy, bn nn nghin cu k Bn co bch tm ra nhng du hiu tng trng
ca cng ty.

Bn cng nn tm hiu v Ban gim c ca cng ty pht hnh, cc sn phm ca cng ty

v t t ra cu hi liu cc sn phn ny c tip tc bn c na khng?

5. Nhng thng tin cn xem

Trang ba (mt trc v mt sau);

Thi gian cho bn;
Cc khi nim;
Tnh hnh v c im ca t chc pht hnh;
Bng mc lc;
Tm tt Bn co bch;
Tm tt v vn c phn, thng k s liu pht hnh / cho bn, s n v phng n s
dng tin thu c t t pht hnh;
Chng khon pht hnh;
Thng tin v ngnh kinh doanh;
Thng tin ti chnh;
Thng tin v c ng, Hi ng qun tr v Ban gim c;
Cc i tc lin quan ti t pht hnh;
Cc nhn t ri ro lin quan n ngnh kinh doanh v trin vng ca cng ty;
Ph lc;
Th tc np h s v chp thun.

6. Thng tin chnh ca trang ba

Cc chng khon s c bn;

S lng chng khon s c bn;
Gi bn cc chng khon;
T chc lin quan n t pht hnh.

7. Tm tt bn co bch

Phn ny gip bn tm hiu khi qut nhng thng tin tm tt v cng ty.

Gii thiu chung v cng ty pht hnh, cc hot ng kinh doanh, ngi h tr pht hnh,
cc c ng ln v Ban gim c ca cng ty;

Tm tt v thng tin ti chnh ca cng ty pht hnh, k c trin vng ca cng ty;
Tm tt v cc yu t ri ro lin quan hoc nh hng ti hot ng kinh doanh v ti
chnh ca cng ty pht hnh;
Tm tt v vn c phn, thng k pht hnh hoc cho bn, s n, s tin thu c t t
pht hnh v mc ch s dng s tin ny.
Ngoi ra bn nn i chiu vi cc phn tng ng khc trong Bn co bch c c
cc thng tin chi tit m bn cn quan tm.

Thng tin v ngnh kinh doanh - cng ty ang c nhng hot ng kinh doanh g?

Thng tin a ra thng bao gm:

Tnh hnh (cc) ngnh kinh doanh chnh m cng ty pht hnh tham gia;
Trin vng ca (cc) ngnh lin quan c nh hng ti hot ng ngnh kinh doanh chnh
ca cng ty pht hnh;
Loi sn phm, dch v kinh doanh chnh ca cng ty;
Khch hng v nh cung cp ca cng ty pht hnh;
Cng ngh, phng thc sn xut v knh phn phi s dng;
Cc nhn t thng mi nh h thng bn l, i l, h thng phn phi, nhn hiu sn
phm, giy php kinh doanh, bng sng ch v kh nng nghin cu v pht trin.
i vi cc cng ty ng k nim yt c hng chnh sch u i th phn thng tin v
ngnh kinh doanh ny trong Bn co bch cng cn phi cng b chi tit cc vn v
cng ngh ca nhng cng ty ny.

8. Thng tin ti chnh cng chng u t tham gia c lm li nhun gim?

Thng tin ti chnh l mt phn quan trng trong Bn co bch v thng c chia thnh
2 phn:

Thng tin ti chnh trong qu kh;

Thng tin ti chnh trong tng lai.

a) Phn thng tin ti chnh trong qu kh

Thng bao gm tm tt cc bn bo co ti chnh c kim ton, v bng cn i k

ton (trn c s tng hp) theo mu, c trch ra t Bo co ca kim ton trong phn
ph lc ca Bn co bch. Mt s ngnh kinh doanh cn yu cu cung cp c thng tin v
lung thu nhp. Vic cng b thng tin ti chnh trong qu kh thng c tnh t 2
nm ti chnh trc. Thng tin phi i km vi phn gii thch v phn tch hot ng ti
chnh trong qu kh. Nu c bt c mt sai st no trong cc thng tin ti chnh c
cng b m U ban Chng khon pht hin c th t chc kim ton cng nh t chc
bo lnh pht hnh phi chu trch nhim lin i trc php lut cng vi t chc pht
hnh.

b) Phn thng tin ti chnh tng lai

Gm cc d tnh v:

Doanh thu;
Li nhun trc thu trc v sau khi tnh li cho c ng thiu s ngoi cng ty;
Li nhun sau thu;
Tng c tc v c tc rng.
T d tnh v li nhun v gi cho bn c phiu ca cng ty pht hnh, bn c th tnh ra
cc mc gi th trng ca mt c phiu tnh theo thu nhp trn mi c phiu trong nm
ca cng ty pht hnh (c k hiu l P /E). H s ny cho thy khi no th gi c phiu
ph hp vi thu nhp. Tc l cc cng ty c nhiu c hi tng trng thng c P /E cao
hn cc cng ty c t c hi tng trung. Tuy nhin, cng cn lu trng hp P /E cao
c th l do mc thu nhp (E) thp. Cn c vo h s P /E, cng vi s phn tch v mt
cht lng ca cng ty pht hnh, bn c th nh gi t pht hnh, cho bn c phiu
ca cng ty so vi cc mc c phiu c nim yt ca cc cng ty trong cng ngnh.

9. C ng, Hi ng qun tr v Ban gim c nhng ai l ngi iu hnh t pht

hnh

Bn nn c danh sch cc c ng, Hi ng qun tr v Ban gim c. Mc d cc d

liu a ra khng phi l con du m bo v cht lng k nng qun l ca h, nhng
bn vn c th bit c trnh chuyn mn v kinh nghim qun l ca nhng con
ngi ny.

Bn cn ch cc quyn li ca cc c ng ln, Hi ng qun tr v i ng lnh o

ch cht trong cc ngnh tng t hoc cc ngnh cnh tranh nu chng c nu trong
Bn co bch. Bn cng nn ch cc giao dch trong qu kh hoc trong tng lai vi
cc cng ty lin quan. Bn co bch s cung cp y cc nhm thnh vin sau:

C ng ln v cc nh sng lp ca cng ty pht hnh, k c tn v c phn ca cc c

nhn ng ng sau cng ty;
Hi ng qun tr bao gm c phn m h i din, chi tit v trnh , kinh nghim v
phn trch nhim ca mi gim c, v h c phi l cc gim c iu hnh hay khng;
i ng cn b qun l di cp u vin Hi ng qun tr, chi tit v trnh , kinh
nghim v phn trch nhim ca h;
T l s hu c phiu, tri phiu ca tng thnh vin ni trn.
10. Cc yu t ri ro

Cc ri ro chung bao gm:

Vic tng, gim gi chng khon ph thuc vo cc iu kin ca th trng chng khon
ni chung, ca tnh trng kinh t t nc v th gii;
Nhng thay i trong chnh sch ca Chnh ph;
Nhng ri ro v ngoi hi;
Nhng thay i v t l li sut;
Nhng ri ro c th xy ra ca cng ty bao gm:
S ph thuc vo nhng cn b ch cht;
S ph thuc vo mt s t cc khch hng, nh cung cp hoc cc d n trong ni b
cng ty;
Nhng thay i v gi nguyn liu th;
S hp nht gi cc i th cnh tranh hoc cc cng ty mi tham gia vo ngnh;
Tranh chp c th bt u pht sinh hoc b mang ra to.
Trong phn ny bn cn tm hiu xem Hi ng qun tr ca cng ty nh gii quyt hoc
lm gim nh hng ca cc nhn t ri ro xc nh nh th no.

Qu u t v Cty qun l qu trong vic chuyn i cc tng Cty NN

thc hin vic u t - kinh doanh chng khon trn th trng ti chnh, i hi cng
chng v cc nh u t khng ch c kin thc v chng khon v th trng chng
khon (TTCK) m cn phi thng xuyn quan tm, theo di, bm st thc trng, phn
tch xu hng pht trin ca th trng vn. lm c iu ny i hi cc nh u t
phi tin hnh kho st thc tin, thu thp thng tin, ti liu tin hnh phn tch tng
chng khon c th, lp v qun l danh mc u t nhm hn ch ri ro, nng cao
hiu qu vn u t.

Vi lnh vc nghip v, chuyn mn c bit ny, ch nhng chuyn gia v cc nh u

t chuyn nghip mi c th thc hin c. V vy, mu thun gia nhu cu u t vi
kh nng hn ch v tri thc, thng tin v cng ngh c gii quyt bi qu trnh hp
tc v phn cng lao ng x hi trong hot ng u t - kinh doanh chng khon. T
nhu cu thc tin dn n s hnh thnh tng bc nhng mi quan h kinh t tt yu
trn c s ca s phn cng v phi hp nhng quan h v s hu vn, qun tr v iu
hnh vic s dng vn u t mt cch c t chc... Cng vi n, nhng ngi ch s
hu vn u t thnh lp nhng t chc ti chnh di m hnh nh: qu u t, cng
ty u t, cng ty qun l qu u t...

Qu u t (QT) v cng ty qun l qu u t (CtyQLQ) ra i xut pht t nhu cu

ni ti ca th trng ti chnh v khi TTCK pht trin mc nht nh. Thc tin
chng minh rng, mc d TTCK xut hin t gia th k XV nhng cc QT,
CtyQLQ mi ch bt u xut hin vo cui th k XIX v pht trin mnh m t gia
th k XX n nay.

QT v CtyQLQ thng c hnh thnh mt cch tun t, t n gin n phc tp,

quy m t nh n ln v m hnh t chc - qun l ngy cng hon thin, phm vi hot
ng t quc gia n quc t. Lch s pht trin ca cc QT, CtyQLQ cho thy, m
hnh khi im l cc QT tp th, cha phi l php nhn, sau l thi k pht trin
ca cc QT di dng cng ty theo m hnh ng ri mi xut hin v pht trin di
m hnh m.

T thc tin, s pht trin khng ngng ca cc QT v CtyQLQ trn th trng ti

chnh l mt trong nhng kt qu trc tip ca s pht trin ca phn cng lao ng x
hi trong lnh vc ti chnh.

Cc QT v CtyQLQ u t c nhng nhim v ch yu nh sau:

Huy ng vn u t;
Qun l v thc hin qu trnh u t trn c s cc ngun vn huy ng c;
Lu k, bo qun ti sn v t chc gim st cc hot ng u t;
thc hin nhng nhim v ny, QT v CtyQLQ u t phi gii quyt tt nhng mi
quan h trn TTCK, th trng tin t. Trong , c nhng mi quan h vi cc ngn
hng, cng ty ti chnh vi t cch l t chc bo lnh pht hnh, lu k, bo qun ti
sn, gim st hot ng ca cc CtyQLQ u t hoc thc hin cc hp ng y thc huy
ng vn, qun l danh mc u t cho cc QT.

Nhng ni dung c bn ca hot ng u t:

Hot ng u t l nhim v quan trng nht, gi vai tr quyt nh n s thnh cng

hay tht bi i vi mi QT, CtyQLQ u t. V vy, tin hnh u t, cc QT,
CtyQLQ u t phi t chc thc hin nghim tc quy trnh hot ng u t (theo S
a)

nghin cu u t, cc QT v CtyQLQ u t s dng cng c phn tch c bn,

nhm tp trung gii quyt nhng vn v m nh: phn tch s tc ng ca li sut, t
gi, chnh sch kinh t - x hi, cc quan h kinh t quc t tc ng ti hot ng u
t - kinh doanh chng khon; pht hin, d on khuynh hng pht trin v nhng bin
ng c th sy ra i vi ton b nn kinh t - c bit l i vi th trng ti chnh v
trin vng pht trin ca tng ngnh, tng lnh vc c th. ng thi, tnh ton kh
nng sinh li, trin vng tng trng, phn tch ri ro i vi tng loi chng khon c
th; QT, CtyQLQ u t s dng cng c phn tch k thut thc hin iu ny.

Mc tiu u t c xc nh v thit lp trn c s nhng kt qu nghin cu th trng

v phn tch li nhun, ri ro theo quy trnh nh s 3. ng thi, phi xut pht t kh
nng ti chnh, kh nng tham gia ca cc nh u t, nhng c im v mc tiu thnh
lp qu... Trn c s , phi xc nh mc tiu u t l thu nhp, li vn hay kt hp c
hai mc tiu ny bo tn v pht trin qu mt cch hiu qu nht.

Mc tiu u t c thc hin thng qua cc chin lc u t. Ngha l, chin lc u

t phi c thnh lp trn c s mc tiu u t. Cn c vo mc tiu u t ch ng
xy dng chin lc u t xc nh c cu ti sn (phn b ti sn) v la chn chng
khon theo hng nng ng hoc theo c cu n nh. T hnh thnh chin lc u
t mang tnh ch ng hay th ng hoc s dng chin lc hn hp c hai thuc tnh
ny hnh thnh danh mc u t.

Chin lc u t mang tnh ch ng: p dng chin lc ny, danh mc u t thng

tp trung vo cc cng c ti chnh mang tnh mo him, mc ri ro cao nh i vi
vic u t - kinh doanh c phiu, cc cng c ti chnh phi sinh v lin quan nhiu n
yu t to lp th trng.

Vi vic p dng chin lc ny, cc nh hoch nh k vng vo s tng trng v gi

tr tng lai hoc vo s pht trin t bin la chn ngnh, lnh vc v cc chng
khon c th. iu ny i hi phi s dng thun thc c hai loi cng c phn tch nu
trn c th pht huy tnh ch ng, khng ngng chuyn ha c cu ti sn v i mi
chng khon.

Ngc li, chin lc u t mang tnh th ng thng dn tri ti sn v a dng ha

chng khon trong danh mc u t; nhm b p gia li nhun v ri ro c c thu
nhp n nh, hn ch ri ro n mc c th chp nhn c i vi tng chng khon c
th. Vi vic p dng chin lc ny, cc nh hoch nh thng phn b ti sn ch yu
vo cc cng c ti chnh c thu nhp tng i n nh nh tri phiu Chnh ph, hoc
thit lp danh mc u t theo kt cu ch s. V bn cht, y ch l s sao chp li mt
cch th ng mc li nhun ca ton th trng v khng k vng vo loi hnh chng
khon v lnh vc kinh t c th no, cn kt qu hot ng u t th b l thuc vo din
bin khch quan ca th trng.

Trong nhng iu kin c bit, chin lc ny pht huy c hiu qu u t rt cao. V

d, trong thi k Trung tm Giao dch Chng khon (TTGDCK) mi trin khai hot ng
Vit Nam, mc d cc nh u t thc hin chin lc u t mt cch th ng
theo ch s c phiu vi danh mc u t rt n iu v ch tp trung vo c phiu.
Nhng, do gi c c phiu lin tc tng ln trong khong thi gian kh di nn vic p
dng chin lc u t th ng l hp l, n gin v hiu qu nht.

Cc QT v CtyQLQ cng c th p dng chin lc u t mang tnh hn hp trn c

s phi hp c hai chin lc nu trn. V d, pht huy tnh ch ng trong vic phn b
ti sn, thng xuyn thay i c cu chng khon trong danh mc u t nhng trong
vic la chn chng khon th nm gi cc danh mc u t theo ch s i vi tng loi
chng khon c th. Tnh cht hn hp ca chin lc u t cng c th c thc hin
theo hng th ng trng tm. thc hin chin lc ny, trng tm ca danh mc u
t l nhng chng khon c la chn theo ch s. B phn cn li ca danh mc u t
c thc hin theo phng thc ch ng.

nng cao hiu qu vn u t; vic qun tr, iu hnh QT, CtyQLQ u t phi
lun lun hng vo cc ch tiu kinh t c bn nh: tng thu nhp, t l thu nhp, tng
chi ph, t l chi ph v cht lng hot ng ca b my qun tr iu hnh. ng thi,
cc QT, CtyQLQ u t khng ch khai thc v s l tt cc thng tin th trng, m
cn phi cung cp thng tin mt cch chnh xc, kp thi, y v tnh hnh ti chnh v
hot ng QT, CtyQLQ u t. Hi ng qun tr phi cung cp cho cc NT cc bo
co v tnh hnh hot ng u t, tnh hnh ti chnh. Nu QT theo m hnh hp ng
th phi cung cp cho nh u t cc ti liu bo co nh k ca CtyQLQ u t, bo co
ca ngi th y v cc bo co ti chnh (bao gm: bo co v ti sn v cng n, thu
nhp v chi ph, s thay i gi tr ti sn rng).

Danh mc u t th hin mt cch tng th mc tiu, chin lc u t, vic phn b ti

sn v la chn chng khon khng ch i vi cc loi hnh chng khon, ngnh, lnh
vc m QT, CtyQLQ u t quan tm; m cn th hin c mc tiu, phm vi hot ng
ca chng trn th trng ti chnh th gii. Danh mc u t ca cc QT, CtyQLQ
cc nc trn th gii trong nhng nm qua khng ch tp trung vic phn b ti sn
v la chn nhng chng khon cc th trng vn pht trin m cn tranh th nhng
c hi u t vo nhng TTCK ang phc hi nhng quc gia thc hin vic chuyn
i m hnh kinh t (c bit l i vi TTCK ca mt s nc ng u, Nga v Trung
Quc).

Ti Vit Nam, cc nh u t nc ngoi (TNN) cng bt u quan tm, tin hnh

u t, thnh lp CtyQLQ Vit Nam tn dng nhng c hi u t xut hin trn
TTCK v trong qu trnh c phn ha (CPH) doanh nghip nh nc (DNNN). Nm
2003, ln u tin Vit Nam, CtyQLQ u t c thnh lp, l Cng ty Lin
doanh QLQ u t chng khon Vit Nam- VietFund Management (VFM). y l mt
lin doanh gia Cng ty Dragon Capital Management v Ngn hng Thng mi
(NHTM) C phn Si Gn Thng Tn.

QT v CtyQLQ u t i vi vic chuyn i cc Tng cng ty (TCty) nh nc sang

m hnh tp on kinh t

Vic i mi cc TCty nh nc thnh cc tp on kinh t thch ng vi nhng iu

kin ca nn kinh t th trng trong bi cnh cnh tranh gay gt, trc ngng ca ca
vic Vit Nam ra nhp WTO v ca qu trnh hi nhp, ton cu ha nn kinh t th gii
tr thnh mt trong nhng nhim v trong tm ca ci cch khu vc kinh t nh nc
Vit Nam trong giai on hin nay.

Thc tin th gii cho thy, tng cng s ch ng v vn v pht trin lnh vc u
t ti chnh, ngoi nhng cng ty con l ngn hng, cng ty ti chnh (CtyTC), cc tp
on kinh t phi ngn hng cn c CtyQLQ u t v hng lot cc QT chng khon.
CtyQLQ u t (cn c gi l CtyQLQ) v cc QT v ang to tin cho s pht
trin hng mnh ca hu ht cc tp on kinh t (c bit l i vi cc cng ty xuyn
quc gia - Trannationanl Corporations). V vy, vic thnh lp cc QT v CtyQLQ u
t s tr thnh vn tt yu thc y s hnh thnh v pht trin cc tp on kinh t
Vit Nam - c bit l i vi vic chuyn i v pht trin cc TCty nh nc theo m
hnh tp on kinh t.

Cho n nay tt c cc TCty nh nc u cha thnh lp QT v CtyQLQ. Mc d

c mt vi TCty nh nc thnh lp CtyTC, nhng vi m hnh v phng thc hot
ng nh hin nay, cc CtyTC cc TCty nh nc khng th y mnh lnh vc hot
ng u t - kinh doanh chng khon. iu ny v ang din ra i vi nhng CtyTC
ca cc TCty nh nc c quy m ln nht.

V d: Theo m hnh t chc hin nay, TCty Bu chnh Vin thng Vit Nam (VNPT) c
117 n v thnh vin, bao gm: cc n v hch ton ph thuc, cc n v hch ton
c lp, cc n v s nghip v cc cng ty c vn gp chi phi ca VNPT. Trong , 70
n v thnh vin ca VNPT hot ng theo ch hch ton ph thuc gm 61 Bu
in tnh, thnh ph v 9 Cng ty chuyn ngnh. Nhng doanh nghip ny chim trn
90% tng vn u t pht trin hng nm ca VNPT v to ra gn 85% doanh thu ca
VNPT.
Cc n v thnh vin ca VNPT c lin quan mt thit vi nhau v li ch kinh t, ti
chnh, cng ngh, cung ng, tiu th, dch v, thng tin, o to, nghin cu, tip th
trong lnh vc bu chnh - vin thng v cc lnh vc lin quan n vic pht trin ngnh
Bu chnh - Vin thng. Nm 2003 tng doanh thu ca VNPT t 24.997 t ng. Trong
, doanh thu t dch v bu chnh - vin thng chim 91,3%, np ngn sch nh nc
4.145 t ng; ngun vn ch s hu ca VNPT ln ti 29.608 t ng. c c
nhng thnh tu ny, ngay t khi thc hin Quy hoch pht trin bu chnh vin thng
giai on 1996-2000 VNPT vn dng sng to v trit ch trng a dng ha cc
ngun vn: thu ht vn u t nc ngoi thng qua hnh thc hp ng hp tc kinh
doanh (BCC); lin doanh gp vn vi cc i tc nc ngoi, khai thc ngun vn h tr
pht trin (ODA) v cc ngun vn tn dng t cc NHTM.

ng thi, khc phc thi quen trng ch vo cc ngun vn t TCty v khai thc
nhng ngun vn tm thi nhn ri ca cc n v thnh vin, khai thc cc ngun vn
trn th trng ti chnh, thc hin vic u t ti chnh, nm 1998 VNPT thnh lp
CtyTC Bu in (PTF) kinh doanh ti chnh thng qua cc hot ng nh: huy ng
v cho vay vn; pht hnh k phiu, tri phiu, chng ch tin gi v cc loi giy t c
gi; kinh doanh dch v ngn qu

Mc d PTF tch cc hot ng trong lnh vc ti chnh nhng cho n nay hot ng
ch yu ca PTF l thc hin cho vay theo y thc, cho vay trc tip, cho vay ng ti tr
cn i vi hot ng u t khng ng k. Nm 2003, quy m hot ng u t - kinh
doanh chng khon v gp vn lin doanh mua c phn mi ch t hn 3 t 107 triu
ng. Thc trng ny cng ang din ra ti cc CtyTC hin c cc TCty nh nc
(CtyTC Dt may, CtyTC Cao su, CtyTC Tu thu, CtyTC Du kh). Trong khi , thng
8/2004 QT Chng khon Vit Nam (VF1) khi t chc khai trng huy ng huy
ng 300 t ng vn iu l c php pht hnh. Nh vy c th khng nh rng,
mt trong nhng nguyn nhn ch yu l ch: cc CtyTC khng phi l doanh nghip
chuyn hot ng kinh doanh cc sn phm ti chnh di hnh thc chng khon. V
vy, c th bt nhp v ho nhp vo th trng ti chnh, ng thi, thc y s
chuyn i t m hnh TCty sang m hnh tp on di dng cng ty m-cng ty con
vic thnh lp QT chng khon v CtyQLQ l ph hp vi xu hng pht trin v
nhng tim nng hin c ca cc TCty nh nc.

Kt lun

QT v CtyQLQ u t l tt yu khch quan v l sn phm trc tip ca qu trnh pht

trin ca phn cng lao ng x hi i vi th trng ti chnh. Hot ng ca QT,
CtyQLQ u t khng ch trong phm vi quc gia, m cn pht trin trn phm vi quc t
- mt trong nhng nhn t ca qu trnh hi nhp v ton cu ha th trng ti chnh
hin i. V vy, s ra i v pht trin ca cc QT, CtyQLQ Vit Nam l sn phm
tt yu ca ci cch t m hnh k hoch ha tp trung sang m hnh nn kinh t th
trng. Cn c vo phng thc hot ng, cc QT c th c thnh lp theo m hnh
ng hoc m, di dng hp ng hay cng ty. Tuy nhin, do nhng c im
v cc nhn t ca vic thit lp qu c hnh thnh tng bc, cho nn, giai on u
phi thnh lp cc QT di dng hp ng v t chc - qun l theo m hnh ng.
ng thi, vic thnh lp CtyQLQ c th bt u t m hnh cng ty t vn u t chng
khon.

thc y qu trnh hnh thnh v pht trin ca cc TCty nh nc theo m hnh tp

on kinh t, c th, mi TCty nh nc s thnh lp th im mt vi QT v chun b
iu kin tin ti vic thnh lp CtyQLQ; cc TCty nh nc thnh cc tp on kinh
t, cc TCty nh nc cn y nhanh tin CPH theo hng chuyn i sang m hnh
tp on kinh t.

m bo tnh chuyn nghip trong vic qun tr cc danh mc u t v nng cao hiu
qu phn vn u t ca cc TCty ti cng ty c phn (CtyCP) - (cc doanh nghip trong
ngnh), cc TCty nh nc c th giao cho cc QT hoc CtyQLQ thc hin vic qun
tr kinh doanh v qun l tp trung vn c phn ca TCty ti cc CtyCP.

* Cc loi hnh qu u t

Qu u t l mt nh ch ti chnh trung gian phi ngn hng thu ht tin nhn ri t cc

ngun khc nhau u t vo cc c phiu, tri phiu, tin t, hay cc loi ti sn khc.

Tt c cc khon u t ny u c qun l chuyn nghip, cht ch bi cng ty qun

l qu, ngn hng gim st v c quan thm quyn khc.

Ti sao nh u t s dng qu u t?

Nh u t c nhn hay php nhn thng quyt nh u t thng qua qu bi 05 yu t:

o Gim thiu ri ro nh a dng ha danh mc u t
o Tit kim chi ph nhng vn t cc yu cu v li nhun
o c qun l chuyn nghip
o Gim st cht ch bi cc c quan thm quyn
o Tnh nng ng ca qu u t.

Mi nh u t tham gia u t vo qu s s hu mt phn trong tng danh mc u t

ca qu. Vic nm gi ny c th hin thng qua vic s hu cc chng ch qu u
t.

Cc loi hnh qu u t

Hin nay, trn th gii c rt nhiu loi hnh qu u t cn c theo cc tiu ch phn loi
khc nhau.

1. Cn c vo ngun vn huy ng:

+ Qu u t tp th (qu cng chng)

L qu huy ng vn bng cch pht hnh rng ri ra cng chng. Nh u t c th l c
nhn hay php nhn nhng a phn l cc nh u t ring l. Qu cng chng cung cp
cho cc nh u t nh phng tin u t m bo a dng ha u t, gim thiu ri ro
v chi ph u t thp vi hiu qu cao do tnh chuyn nghip ca u t mang li.

+ Qu u t c nhn (Qu thnh vin)

Qu ny huy ng vn bng phng thc pht hnh ring l cho mt nhm nh cc nh
u t, c th c la chn trc, l cc c nhn hay cc nh ch ti chnh hoc cc tp
on kinh t ln, do vy tnh thanh khon ca qu ny s thp hn qu cng chng. Cc
nh u t vo cc qu t nhn thng vi lng vn ln, v i li h c th tham gia
vo trong vic kim sot u t ca qu.

2. Cn c vo cu trc vn ng vn:

+ Qu ng
y l hnh thc qu pht hnh chng ch qu mt ln duy nht khi tin hnh huy ng
vn cho qu v qu khng thc hin vic mua li c phiu/chng ch u t khi nh u
t c nhu cu bn li. Nhm to tnh thanh khon cho loi qu ny, sau khi kt thc vic
huy ng vn (hay ng qu), cc chng ch qu s c nim yt trn th trng chng
khon. Cc nh u t c th mua hoc bn thu hi vn c phiu hoc chng ch u
t ca mnh thng qua th trng th cp. Tng vn huy ng ca qu c nh v khng
bin i trong sut thi gian qu hot ng. Hnh thc qu ng ny mi c p dng
ti Vit Nam, l Qu u t VF1 do cng ty VFM huy ng vn v qun l.

+ Qu m
Khc vi qu ng, tng vn ca qu m bin ng theo tng ngy giao dch do tnh cht
c th ca n l nh u t c quyn bn li chng ch qu u t cho qu, v qu
phi mua li cc chng ch theo gi tr thun vo thi im giao dch. i vi hnh thc
qu ny, cc giao dch mua bn chng ch qu c thc hin trc tip vi cng ty qun
l qu v cc chng ch qu khng c nim yt trn th trng chng khon. Do vic
i hi tnh thanh khon cao, hnh thc qu m ny mi ch tn ti cc nc c nn
kinh t v th trng chng khon pht trin nh Chu u, M, Canada v cha c mt
ti Vit Nam.

3. Cn c vo c cu t chc v hot ng ca qu:

+ Qu u t dng cng ty

Trong m hnh ny, qu u t l mt php nhn, tc l mt cng ty c hnh thnh

theo quy nh ca php lut tng nc. C quan iu hnh cao nht ca qu l hi ng
qun tr do cc c ng (nh u t) bu ra, c nhim v chnh l qun l ton b hot
ng ca qu, la chn cng ty qun l qu v gim st hot ng u t ca cng ty
qun l qu v c quyn thay i cng ty qun l qu. Trong m hnh ny, cng ty qun
l qu hot ng nh mt nh t vn u t, chu trch nhim tin hnh phn tch u t,
qun l danh mc u t v thc hin cc cng vic qun tr kinh doanh khc. M hnh
ny cha xut hin Vit Nam bi theo quy nh ca UBCKNN, qu u t khng c t
cch php nhn.
+ Qu u t dng hp ng

y l m hnh qu tn thc u t. Khc vi m hnh qu u t dng cng ty, m hnh

ny qu u t khng phi l php nhn. Cng ty qun l qu ng ra thnh lp qu, tin
hnh vic huy ng vn, thc hin vic u t theo nhng mc tiu ra trong iu l
qu. Bn cnh , ngn hng gim st c vai tr bo qun vn v cc ti sn ca qu,
quan h gia cng ty qun l qu v ngn hng gim st c th hin bng hp ng
gim st trong quy nh quyn li v ngha v ca hai bn trong vic thc hin v
gim st vic u t bo v quyn li ca cc nh u t. Nh u t l nhng ngi
gp vn vo qu (nhng khng phi l c ng nh m hnh qu u t dng cng ty) v
y thc vic u t cho cng ty qun l qu bo m kh nng sinh li cao nht t
khon vn ng gp ca h.

Chc nng hot ng ca Cng ty qun l qu

Theo khi nim v cng ty qun l qu u t (Fund Management) ti th trng chng
khon M, cng ty qun l qu l cng ty chuyn trch thc hin vic qun l cc qu
u t. Cc qu u t c t chc di dng mt cng ty, pht hnh c phn. Cng ty
u t s dng nh t vn u t, hay ngi qun l u t quyt nh loi chng
khon no s a vo danh mc u t ca qu. Ngi qun l qu uc ton quyn qun
l danh mc u t, mua bn chng khan ph hp vi cc mc tiu u t ca qu.
Cng ty qun l qu c cu trc di hai dng: qun l qu u t qu dng ng v
qu dng m.

Vit Nam, theo Ngh nh 144/2003/N-CP ban hnh ngy 28/11/2003 v chng
khon v th trng chng khon, th cng ty qun l qu thc hin vic qun l qu u
t chng khon. Qu u t chng khon c th dng qu cng chng hoc qu thnh
vin, v l dng ng.

Chc nng hot ng v cc sn phm ca cng ty qun l qu

Thc cht v hot ng ca cng ty qun l qu l thc hin chc nng v qun l vn ti
sn thng qua vic u t theo danh mc u t hiu qu nht lm gia tng gi tr ca qu
u t.

a. Qun l qu u t (Asset management)

- Huy ng v qun l vn v ti sn
- Tp trung u t theo danh mc u t
- Qun l u t chuyn nghip

Cc qu u t c qun l bi cc chuyn gia c k nng v giu kinh nghim ngi

m c la chn nh k cn c vo tng li nhun h lm ra. Nhng chuyn gia khng
to ra li nhun s b thay th. Mt trong nhng nhn t quan trng trong vic chn la
qu u t tt l qu phi c qun l tt nht.

b. T vn u t v t vn ti chnh
- Thc hin vic t vn u t v t vn v qun tr cho cc khch hng
- H tr khch hng ti u ha cc khon u t thng qua cc cng c ti chnh
- Ti u ha cc ngun vn cho cc nh u t

c. Nghin cu

Thng qua vic phn tch nh gi v th trng, phn tch gi tr ti chnh v gi tr u

t v h tr cho cc hot ng qun l u t v cc t vn nh nu trn.

C ch gim st ca qu, cng ty qun l qu v cc c quan chc nng

a. C quan qun l ch quan ca cng ty qun l qu l y ban Chng khon Nh nc

(UBCKNN), B Ti Chnh v Ngn hng Nh Nc Vit Nam gim st ton b cc hot
ng ca cng ty qun l qu, cc qu u t v cc ngn hng gim st v mt v m.

b. Ngn hng gim st thc hin vic bo qun, lu k ti sn ca qu u t chng

khon v gim st cng ty qun l qu nhm bo v li ch ca ngi u t.

c. Cng ty qun l qu thc hin vic qun l qu vic u t theo danh mc u t c

nu trong co bch ca qu.

d. Cng ty kim ton thc hin vic kim tra, nh gi khch quan v chnh xc tnh hnh
hot ng ca qu u t, bo m s minh bch

Cn phn bit r khi nim c phiu thng

Th trng chng khon Vit Nam dn i vo n inh. Cc cng ty nim yt tng

cng m rng sn xut kinh doanh, cc nh u t cng phi lm quen vi nhiu khi
nim v k thut rt mi. Trong thi gian gn y, chng ta c nghe thy ni nhiu n
chnh sch thng c phiu. Nhm gip nh u t hiu thm v khi nim ny, di y
chng ti xin a ra mt s kin v vn ny. C hai trng hp thng c phiu cn
phi xem xt:

Trng hp th nht: thng cho ngi c ng gp ln

Thng thng, khi ni n khi nim thng c ngha l vic u i thng l v vt cht
cho mt s lng t ngi. Trong cc cng ty c phn, c th hiu thng c phiu l vic
cng ty dng mt s c phiu (trc y l ca chung mi c ng) thng cho nhng
ngi qun l, cn b cng nhn vin hay nhng ngi c ng gp ln i vi hot
ng ca Cng ty. Ngun c phiu dng thng thng l c phiu ngn qu.
Trong trng hp ny, tng gi tr s sch ca cng ty khng thay i, ci li ca ngi
c thng l r rng: t l s hu cng ty ca h s tng ln. Cn i vi nhng c
ng khng c thng, t l s hu cng ty ca h s gim i. Tuy nhin, y l mt
cch cng ty khuyn khch tinh thn lm vic v s ng gp ca nhng ngi c
thng, c bit i vi nhng ngi qun l, do vn c i hi c ng thng qua.

Trng hp th hai: thng cho tt c cc c ng

y l trng hp nhiu cng ty c phn trn th gii p dng v Vit nam trong thi
gian gn y cng hay c nhc n. l vic tt c cc c ng ca cng ty c
nhn thm c phiu mi theo mt t l nht nh (v d 5:1, c ng nm gi 5 c phiu
c c s c nhn thm 1 c phiu mi). Khi , nh u t cn nm c mt s
nguyn tc sau:

Th nht, cng ty khng nhn c ngun vn gp mi t pha c ng hay t bt k

ngun no, do vn ch s hu ca cc c ng khng thay i. Thc cht, y l vic
lm tng vn iu l t ngun li nhun li, hay ni cch khc, y ch l vic chuyn
i gia cc khon mc trong ngun vn c ng: t li nhun li sang vn iu l m
khng lm thay i tng ngun vn c ng.

Th hai, c phiu c pht thm cho c ng lm tng s lng c phiu ca cng ty

(1/5 hay 20%). Khi s lng c phiu tng ln, ngun vn ch s hu khng i, gi tr
s sch (=ngun vn ch s hu / tng s c phiu) ca c phiu s gim theo t l tng
ng. T l s hu cng ty ca mi c ng trc v sau khi pht hnh thm c phiu l
khng i.

Th ba, y thng l cch cc cng ty trn th gii hin nay tr c tc cho c ng bng
c phiu (stock dividend) thay v tr bng tin (cash dividend) bi cng ty mun gi li
tin m rng sn xut kinh doanh hay u t vo d n mi. Vic c li hay khng ca
chnh sch ny i vi c ng c quyt nh bi s thnh cng ca k hoch u t
mi. Nu k hoch ny em li li nhun cao, lng tin u t ca c ng s c s
dng hiu qu, tng gi tr ca cng ty s tng ln. Cn trong trng hp ngc li, iu
ny s c nh hng khng ch ti phn c phiu mi c nhn thm m c phn c
phiu cc c ng nm gi trc y.

Khi m mi c ng u c hng mt ch ng nht, trch t chnh ti sn ca h

v vic c li cho h hay khng l cha r rng th vic s dng khi nim ''thng''
trong trng hp ny xem chng l cha hp l.

Nghip v tch, gp c phiu

Hin nay, nhiu nh u t rt quan tm n nghip v tch, gp c phiu. Tch v gp

c phiu l vic lm tng hoc gim s c phiu ang lu hnh ca mt cng ty c phn
m khng lm thay i vn iu l, vn c phn hay ton b gi tr th trng ti thi
im tch hoc gp c phiu. Ty theo mc ch ca cng ty v tnh hnh th trng m
cng ty c th tin hnh tch hay gp c phiu. Vic tch, gp c phiu thng c quy
nh trong iu l cng ty v do i hi c ng quyt nh, nhng trong thc t thng
th i hi c ng thng qua ch trng v y quyn cho Hi ng qun tr la chn
thi im thch hp tin hnh vic tch hoc gp c phiu.

Tch c phiu s lm tng s lng c phiu ang lu hnh v lm gim mnh gi c

phiu tng ng vi t l tch, do gi c phiu trn th trng cng s gim tng ng
v giao dch c thc hin d dng hn. Vic tch c phiu thng c thc hin khi
gi c phiu trn th trng tng qu cao lm cho cc giao dch s kh thc hin v iu
ny s lm gim tnh thanh khon ca c phiu. V vy, khi gi c phiu tng cao trn th
trng th vic tch c phiu l cn thit to iu kin thun li cho vic giao dch c
phiu, ng thi sau khi tch gi c phiu thng c xu hng tng ln. Mt khc, sau
khi tch c phiu, s lng c phiu c giao dch trn th trng tng ln c th lm
tng s lng c ng ca cng ty, qua gp phn lm hn ch kh nng cng ty b thu
tm.

V d, mt cng ty c phn ABC c 1 triu c phiu ang lu hnh, mnh gi 10.000

ng/c phiu (tng gi tr nim yt l 10 t ng) v gi th trng ti thi im hin ti
l 100.000 ng/c phiu. Cng ty tin hnh tch c phiu theo t l 1:2 (ngha l ngi
s hu 1 c phiu c s nhn c 2 c phiu mi, khi tng s c phiu mi ca cng
ty s l 2 triu c phiu mnh gi 5.000 ng/c phiu, tng gi tr nim yt vn l 10 t
ng nhng gi th trng ca c phiu mi s dao ng mc 50.000 ng/c phiu.

Ngc li, trng hp gp c phiu s lm gim s lng c phiu ang lu hnh, mnh
gi c phiu tng ln v gi th trng ca c phiu cng tng ln tng ng vi t l gp
c phiu. Theo thng k cc nc th trng hp gp c phiu thng t khi xy ra i
vi cc cng ty nim yt trn th trng chng khon bi v mc ch duy nht ca vic
gp c phiu l lm cho c phiu c gi tr hn trn th trng v qua lm tng tnh
thanh khon ca c phiu.

V d, cng ty c phn DEF c 6 triu c phiu ang lu hnh, mnh gi 10.000 /c

phiu, tng gi tr nim yt l 60 t ng v gi th trng ang mc 12.000 ng/c
phiu. trnh cho gi c phiu ca cng ty gim xung thp hn mnh gi, cng ty c
phn DEF tin hnh gp c phiu theo t l 3:1 (ngha l c ng s hu 3 c phiu c s
nhn c 1 c phiu mi). Nh vy sau khi gp, tng s c phiu mi ca cng ty l 2
triu c phiu, vi mnh gi 30.000 ng/c phiu v gi th trng ca c phiu mi s
dao ng quanh mc gi 36.000 ng/c phiu.

Cho n nay, nghip v tch, gp c phiu cha xy ra trn th trng chng khon Vit
Nam. Vic tng vn iu l ca cng ty REE va qua v ca mt s cng ty nim yt
khc d nh thc hin trong thi gian ti bng cch pht hnh thm c phiu khng phi
l trng hp tch c phiu. chnh l trng hp cng ty dng cc khon thng d
vn c phn, li nhun gi li v cc qu hin c chuyn thnh vn iu l thng qua
hnh thc pht hnh thm c phiu thng cho cc c ng hin hu, ngha l vn iu l
v s lng c phiu ca cng ty tng ln nhng trong thc t tng vn ch s hu ca
Cng ty vn khng thay i v nh vy vic pht hnh thm c phiu ca Cng ty REE
v mt s Cng ty d nh thc hin trong thi gian ti v thc cht chnh l iu chnh
li gi tr s sch trn mt c phiu.

Cm c chng khon

Trong kinh doanh CK, nh u t trc ht phi hiu bit v nm vng cc nguyn tc v
phng thc cm c CK:

1. L mt nghip v kinh doanh CK - t nht c hai ch th tham gia:

a/ Bn cm c l thnh vin lu k nhn danh chnh mnh hoc c ngi i vay u

quyn giao CK cho bn nhn cm c;

b/ Bn cm c l thnh vin lu k nhn danh chnh mnh hoc c ngi cho vay u
quyn nhn cm c CK bn cm c.

Vic thc hin cm c CK trn c s hp ng php l cm c CK ca hai ch th tham

gia, trong quy nh r gi tr CK cm c, s tin vay, li sut v thi hn tr n,
phng thc x l CK cm c.

2. TTGDCK sau khi kim tra th tc, nht l tnh hp php, hp l ca n th trung tm
phi m ti khon cm c v chuyn CK vo ti khon cm c theo yu cu ca bn cm
c.

Trng hp bn cho vay (hoc bn vay) khng phi l thnh vin lu k, bn cho vay
(hoc bn vay) phi u quyn vic nhn cm c CK (hoc vic giao CK cm c) cho mt
thnh vin lu k khc.

3. Ti khon cm c phi tch bit vi ti khon lu k cc CK khc ca bn cm c. Sau

khi ghi vo ti khon cm c CK, th phi nh ch vic rt, chuyn khon hoc chuyn
nhng cc CK trn ti khon cm c trong thi gian cm c. TTGDCK gi thng bo
bng cng vn cho bn nhn cm c v vic thc hin cm c CK.

4. Vic gii to cm c CK c thc hin theo cc nguyn tc:

a/ Ngi gii to cm c CK phi l bn nhn cm c CK;

b/ C th gii to ton b hoc mt phn CK cm c bng hnh thc rt chng ch hay

chuyn khon;
c/ C vn bn ngh gii to cm c CK ca bn nhn cm c. Trn c s , TTGDCK
thc hin hu b vic cm c CK trong ng k ngi s hu CK v thng bo bng vn
bn cho ngi nhn cm c vic hu b cm c CK v gii to ti khon cm c sang ti
khon khc.

Nu bn cm c CK thc hin khng ng theo tho thun th CK cm c c x l

do cc bn tho thun hoc a ra bn u gi theo quy nh ca php lut

Mt s iu cn bit v lu k chng khon

Lu k chng khon l mt trong nhng iu kin thc hin giao dch trn th trng
chng khon. Trc khi thc hin giao dch chng khon, nh u t phi k hp ng
m ti khon ti cc thnh vin lu k.

Lu k l vic gi chng ch chng khon t c phiu, tri phiu, hoc cc loi giy t
hp php chng minh quyn s hu chng khon vo h thng lu k chng khon. H
thng lu k chng khon bao gm Trung tm lu k v cc thnh vin lu k. Chng
ch chng khon ca nh u t s c ct gi an ton ti Trung tm lu k. Chng
khon c lu k s c ghi nhn vo ti khon lu k chng khon ng tn nh
u t. Khi chng khon c giao dch, ti khon ca nh u t s c ghi tng hoc
gim m khng cn phi trao tay t chng ch chng khon.

Lu k chng khon l bt buc trc khi mun chng khon c giao dch qua sn
giao dch ca Trung tm giao dch chng khon. Trung tm giao dch chng khon hin
nay ng vai tr l Trung tm lu k. Vic lu k chng khon ch c thc hin ti cc
thnh vin lu k ca Trung tm giao dch chng khon. Cc thnh vin lu k bao gm
cc cng ty chng khon v cc ngn hng thng mi c U Ban Chng Khon
Nh Nc cp php hot ng lu k v ng k lm thnh vin lu k ca Trung tm
giao dch chng khon.

Trc y nh u t trong nc ch c lu k chng khon ti thnh vin lu k trong

nc - l cc cng ty chng khon hoc cc ngn hng thng mi trong nc, nh u t
nc ngoi ch c lu k ti thnh vin lu k nc ngoi - l cc cng ty chng khon
lin doanh vi nc ngoi hoc cc ngn hng thng mi lin doanh vi nc ngoi
hoc cc chi nhnh ngn hng nc ngoi ang hot ng hp php ti Vit Nam. Tuy
nhin, quy nh ny c thay i, theo Quyt nh s 51/2003/Q-BTC ngy
15/04/2003 ca B Ti Chnh v vic sa i, b sung mt s iu ca Quy ch lu k,
thanh ton b tr v ng k chng khon, nh u t trong v ngoi c th m ti khon
lu k chng khon bt k thnh vin lu k no. Vic lu k chng khon s c bt
u bng cc th tc m ti khon lu k chng khon ti thnh vin lu k. Cc chng
khon sau khi c lu k ti thnh vin lu k s c thnh vin lu k ti lu k ti
Trung tm giao dch chng khon. Sau khi thnh vin hon tt vic ti lu k ti Trung
tm giao dch chng khon th chng khon mi c php giao dch. Chng khon
lu k ca nh u t c ct gi ti kho ca Trung tm giao dch chng khon di
dng qun l tng hp. Chng khon ca nh u t lu k ti Trung tm giao dch
chng khon c qun l ring bit vi chng khon ca chnh thnh vin lu k.

Theo quy nh hin hnh, mi nh u t ch c m mt ti khon lu k ti mt thnh

vin lu k. Do vy nh u t cn tm hiu trc la chn mt thnh vin lu k
thch hp cho mnh. Trong trng hp mun i sang mt thnh vin lu k khc, nh
u t s m ti khon lu k mi ti thnh vin lu k mi, ng thi phi lm cc th
tc ng ti khon lu k ti thnh vin lu k c v yu cu thnh vin lu k ny
chuyn s d chng khon sang ti khon lu k ti thnh vin lu k mi.

Khi m ti khon lu k, nh u t nn cung cp a ch lin lc r rng, chnh xc v

y cho thnh vin lu k. iu ny rt quan trng v nh u t c th gp phi
nhng bt tin v thm ch thit hi sau ny. Chng hn, khi a ch trn cc loi giy t
ty thn nh chng minh nhn dn c s dng lm cc th tc m ti khon lu k,
trong khi a ch c tr hin ti khc vi a ch trn chng minh nhn dn. Cc th t
lin lc ca t chc pht hnh, Trung tm giao dch chng khon v thnh vin lu k
trong thi gian thc hin quyn s khng n ng ni nh u t . Vic ny c th a
n v s bt tin trong qu trnh x l quyn t thnh vin lu k, Trung tm giao dch
chng khon cho n t chc pht hnh nh chm tr, chnh sa h s thc hin quyn,
hoc thm ch i khi nh u t b t chi phn b quyn.

Ngi ng tn lu k chng khon phi chnh l ch s hu chng khon, k c c

phiu v danh. S x-ri ca t chng ch chng khon cng phi ng l s x-ri ca ch
s hu ng k quyn s hu ti t chc pht hnh. i vi c phiu ghi danh, nu
ch s hu l ngi c chuyn nhng hp php trc khi c hot ng ca Trung tm
giao dch chng khon, th mt sau ca t chng ch phi c ch k ca ngi chuyn
nhng lin k trc v ch k ca ngi c thm quyn v con du ca t chc pht
hnh xc nhn vic chuyn nhng . Nu cc yu t ny khng ng nh vy, chng
khon s b t chi lu k

Cc t chng ch chng khon b hng, b nhe khng th nhn din c cc thng tin
c bn trn s b t chi lu k. Trong trng hp ny cn lin h vi t chc pht
hnh xin c i li t chng ch chng khon mi.

Cc chng ch chng khon thuc din b thng bo mt cp hoc gi mo s b tm gi

giao cho t chc pht hnh hoc c quan c thm quyn x l.

C phiu ca c ng sng lp vn cn trong thi gian nm gi theo quy nh ca php

lut, ca c ng mua chu cha thanh ton ht tin mua c phiu vn c lu k nhng
khng c php giao dch. Cc c phiu ny ch c php giao dch khi cc iu kin
hn ch c bi b v phi c xc nhn t t chc pht hnh. V d nh c phiu mua
chu thanh ton ht, mun c giao dch phi c vn bn xc nhn ca t chc pht
hnh.

Cc ch s hu c phiu theo hnh thc ghi s mun lu k vn tin hnh cc th tc lu

k bnh thng ti thnh vin lu k. D nhin trong trng hp ny khng c vic
chuyn giao chng ch vt cht. Thnh vin lu k s gi tn ch s hu n t chc pht
hnh. Sau khi kim tra, t chc pht hnh s gi tn ch s hu n Trung tm giao dch
chng khon thc hin vic lu k. Lu k theo hnh thc ghi s l xu hng ch yu
hin nay v nhng u im hn hn lu k chng ch vt cht, l khng phi qua kim
m, kim tra tnh tht gi, v tn km cho cng tc bo qun.

Trung tm giao dch chng khon l ngi c y quyn thay mt ngi ng s hu

chng khon lu k nhn cc quyn c hng t t chc pht hnh nh c tc, li tri
phiu, c phiu thng.

Cc cng c phi sinh

I. Khi nim:

Cng c phi sinh l nhng cng c c pht hnh trn c s nhng cng c c nh
c phiu, tri phiu nhm nhiu mc tiu khc nhau nh phn tn ri ro, bo v li nhun
hoc to li nhun.

II. Cc loi cng c phi sinh:

1. Quyn la chn (Option)

a. Khi nim: Quyn la chn l mt cng c cho php ngi nm gi n c mua (nu
l quyn chn mua) hoc bn (nu l quyn chn bn) mt khi lng nht nh hng ho
vi mt mc gi xc nh, v trong mt thi gian nht nh.
Cc hng ho c s ny c th l c phiu, ch s c phiu, tri phiu, ch s tri phiu,
thng phm, ng tin hay hp ng tng lai.

b. Nhng yu t cu thnh mt quyn la chn

- Tn ca hng ho c s v khi lng c mua theo quyn.
- Loi quyn (chn mua hay chn bn).
- Thi hn ca quyn.
- Mc gi thc hin theo quyn.

c. Nhng mc gi lin quan ti mt quyn la chn l:

- Gi th trng hin hnh ca loi hng ho c s.
- Gi hng ho c s thc hin theo quyn.
- Gi quyn la chn.

i vi quyn chn mua, nu gi thc hin thp hn gi hin hnh ca chng khon c
s, th quyn c gi l ang c tin (in the money), tc l ngi c quyn c th
c li t vic thc hin quyn. Nu gi thc hin bng vi gi th trng, quyn ang
trng thi ho vn ( at the money), v nu cao hn, gi l ang mt tin (out of money).
i vi quyn chn bn th ngc li, ngi thc hin quyn s c li nu gi bn thc
hin quyn cao hn gi th trng ca hng ho c s v s b mt tin nu gi thc hin
quyn thp hn gi th trng ca hng ho c s.

Gi tr m ngi nm gi quyn la chn s nhn c bng cch thc hin quyn c

gi l gi tr ni ti (intrinsic value). Nu quyn trng thi b mt tin, gi tr ni ti
bng 0. Gi th trng ca mt quyn thng t nht l bng gi tr ni ti. Gi bn quyn
c gi l phn ph tri, chnh lch gia gi bn quyn vi gi tr ni ti (trong trng
hp quyn ang c tin) c gi l phn ph tri gi tr theo thi gian. Ni cch khc,
khi :

Gi tr theo thi gian ca quyn chn mua = Gi quyn - (gi th trng - gi thc hin).
V d 1: Gi ca mt quyn chn mua XYZ l 400.000 ng, gi th trng ca XYZ l
42.000 ng. Ngi gi quyn c th chim ly 200.000 ngay tc th bng cch thc
hin quyn, tc l mua 100 c phn ( mc gi c quyn n nh) vi tng chi ph
4.000.000 ng, cng theo mc gi thc hin theo quyn l 40.000 mt c phn; sau
bn ngay vi gi th trng, thu v 4.200.000 . Gi tr ni ti ca quyn l 200.000 .
Mc ph tri gi tr theo thi gian = gi quyn gi tr ni ti = 400.000 - 200.000 =
200.000

Ngi mua vn sn sng tr phn ph tri cho cc quyn la chn v h nhn c nhiu
li ch t mt quyn la chn.

d. ng dng ca quyn la chn:

Quyn la chn cho php nh u t thu c t l % li tc trn vn u t cao nht.
V d 2: Gi s th trng hin nay ca c phiu XYZ l 42.000 VND/c phn, v bn d
on sau na nm na, gi c phiu XYZ s tng mnh, ln ti 50.000 VND. Gi s cc
quyn la chn c lin quan n giao dch c phiu XYZ c nim yt, bn c th mua
mt quyn chn mua c phiu XYZ vi gi 40.000 VND/c phn.

Trong vng 6 thng gi c phiu XYZ tng ln 50.000 VND/c phn. Bn c th buc
ngi bn giao 100 c phn XYZ cho bn vi gi 40.000 VND/c phn, sau bn
chng ra th trng vi gi 50.000 ng.

Nh vy bn to ra mt li nhun ng k. Trn thc t bn thu c li nhun

60.000 ng trn khon u t 40.000 ng, vy li sut l 150%, trong khong thi gian
l 6 thng.

Quyn la chn c s dng bo v li nhun

V d 3: Vi XYZ ang c gi th trng l 44.000 ng, ngi s hu 100 c phn XYZ
bn mt quyn chn mua XYZ 44.000 vi gi quyn l 400.000 ng.
Nu gi th trng ca XYZ gim xung 40.000 ng, ngi bn s c bo v trc
khon thua l nh c 40.000 ng nhn c t vic bn quyn chn. Nu XYZ tip tc
gim gi th ng nhin ngi bn s mt tin. Nh vy khon thu 40.000 ng t vic
bn quyn la chn to ra mt s bo v c b i vi tnh trng st gi.
Nu trong 6 thng ti gi XYZ vn gi nguyn, quyn s khng c thc hin. Khon
thu ph tri 40.000 ng l mt thu nhp b sung trn tng u t.

2. Quyn mua trc (right)

Quyn mua trc l mt quyn la chn mua c thi hn rt ngn, c khi ch vi tun.
Quyn ny c pht hnh khi cc cng ty tng vn bng cch pht hnh thm cc c
phiu thng. Quyn cho php mt c ng mua c phiu mi pht hnh vi mc gi
n nh trong mt khong thi gian xc nh.
Loi quyn ny thng c pht hnh theo tng t, mi c phiu ang lu hnh c
km theo mt quyn. S quyn cn mua mt c phiu mi c quy nh tu theo
tng t pht hnh mi.

Gi c phiu ghi trn quyn thng l thp hn gi hin hnh ca c phiu. Gi ca

quyn tnh bng chnh lch gia gi th trng hin hnh ca c phn ang lu hnh v
gi mua c phn mi theo quyn, chia cho s lng quyn cn c mua mt c phn
mi.

V d: c phiu bn theo quyn (gi thc hin) l 800.000 ng/c phn, nhng c gi th
trng l 1.000.000 ng, nu c 10 quyn c mua mt c phn mi th gi ca quyn
c xc nh theo cng thc
Vr = P0 - Pn/r

Trong : Vr l gi tr ca mt quyn, P0 l gi th trng ca c phiu ang lu hnh, Pn

l gi thc hin c phiu mi v r l s quyn cn c mua mt c phiu mi.
Vy, gi quyn y l Vr = (1.000.000 800.000)/10 = 20.000 ng.
Nu khng mun thc hin quyn, c ng thng c th bn quyn trn th trng trong
thi gian quyn cha ht hn. Gi quyn c th ln xung trong khong thi gian cho
bn, tu thuc bin ng gi th trng ca c phiu.

3. Chng quyn (warrants)

Chng quyn l quyn cho php mua mt s c phn xc nh ca mt c phiu, vi mt

gi xc nh, trong mt thi hn nht nh. Quyn ny c pht hnh khi tin hnh t
chc li cc cng ty, hoc khi cng ty mun khuyn khch cc nh u t tim nng mua
nhng tri phiu hay c phiu u i nhng c nhng iu kin km thun li. chp
nhn nhng iu kin , nh u t c c mt la chn i vi s ln gi c th xy
ra ca c phiu thng.

c im:

Khc vi quyn mua trc, chng quyn c thi hn di hn, do cng ty pht hnh
cng c c s pht hnh ng thi vi cng c c s. Khc vi quyn la chn (option),
khi chng quyn c thc hin, n to thnh dng tin vo cho cng ty v tng thm
lng c phiu lu hnh trn th trng.
Chng quyn c th c giao dch tch ri vi tri phiu hay c phiu m n i km.
Cc iu kin ca chng quyn c ghi r trn t chng ch: s c phiu c mua theo
mi chng quyn (thngl 1:1); gi thc hin cho mi c phiu; ti thi im chng
quyn c pht hnh, gi ny bao gi cng cao hn gi th trng ca c phiu c s, v
gi c th c nh, c th c tng ln nh k; v thi hn ca quyn, a s trng
hp l 5 n 10 nm.

4.Hp ng k hn

Hp dng k hn l mt tho thun trong mt ngi mua v mt ngi bn chp thun

thc hin mt giao dch hng ho vi khi lng xc nh, ti mt thi im xc nh
trong tng lai vi mt mc gi c n nh vo ngy hm nay.
Hng ho y c th l bt k th hng ho no; t nng sn, cc ng tin, cho ti cc
chng khon.

Theo hp ng ny th ch c hai bn tham gia vo vic k kt, gi c do hai bn t tho

thun vi nhau, da theo nhng c tnh mang tnh cc nhn. Gi hng ho trn th
trng giao ngay vo thi im giao nhn hng ho c th thay , tng ln hoc gim
xung so vi mc gi k kt trong hp ng. Khi , mt trong hai bn mua v bn s
b thit hi do cam kt mt mc gi thp hn (bn bn) hoc cao hn (bn mua) theo
gi th trng.

Nh vy bng vic tham gia vo mt hp ng k hn, c hai bn u gii hn c ri

ro tim nng cng nh hn ch li nhun tim nng ca mnh. V ch c hai bn tham gia
vo hp ng, cho nn mi bn u ph thuc duy nht vo bn kia trong vic thc hin
hp ng. Khi c thay i gi c trn th trng giao ngay, ri ro thanh ton s tng ln
khi mt trong hai bn khng thc hin hp ng. Ngoi ra, v mc gi t ra mang tnh c
nhn v ch quan nn rt c th khng chnh xc.

5. Hp ng tng lai

Hp ng tng lai, nh c tnh linh hot ca n, khc phc c nhng nhc im

ca hp ng k hn, v thng c xem l mt cch thc tt hn ro chn ri ro
trong kinh doanh.

Nhng im khc bit cn bn ca hp ng tng lai so vi hp ng k hn l:

1. Nim yt trn s giao dch. Mt giao dch hp ng tng lai ni chung c x l

trn mt S giao dch. im ny cho php gi c c hnh thnh hp l hn, do cc bn
mua bn c cung cp thng tin y v cng khai.

2. Xo b ri ro tn dng. Trong cc giao dch hp ng tng lai c nim yt trn s

giao dch, c hai bn bn v mua u khng bao gi bit v i tc giao dch ca mnh.
Cng ty thanh ton b tr s phc v nh mt trung gian trong tt c cc giao dch. Ngi
bn bn cho cng ty thanh ton b tr, v ngi mua cng mua qua cng ty thanh ton b
tr. Nu mt trong hai bn khng thc hin c hp ng th vn khng nh hng g
n bn kia.

3.Tiu chun ho. Cc hp ng k hn c th c tho ra vi mt hng ho bt k,

khi lng, cht lng, thi gian giao hng bt k, theo tho thun chung gia hai bn
bn, mua. Tuy nhin, cc hp ng tng lai nim yt trn s giao dch i hi vic giao
nhn mt khi lng c th ca mt hng ho c th p ng cc tiu chun cht lng
ti thiu, theo mt thi hn c n nh trc.

4. iu chnh vic nh gi theo mc gi th trng (Marking to market). Trong cc hp

ng k hn, cc khon l, li ch c tr khi hp ng n hn. Vi mt hp ng
tng lai, bt k mn li no cng c giao nhn hng ngy. C th l nu gi ca hng
ho c s bin ng khc vi gi tho thun (gi thc hin hp ng) th bn b thit
hi do s thay i gi ny phi tr tin cho bn c li t s thay i gi . Trn thc
t, v khng bn no bit v i tc ca mnh trong giao dch, nn nhng ngi thua u
tr tin cho cng ty thanh ton b tr, v cng ty ny s tr tin cho nhng ngi thng.
KIN THC CHNG KHON NNG CAO

Tham gia vo h thng giao dch chng khon

Hot ng giao dch mua bn chng khon c khi u bng vic t lnh mua bn ti
Vn phng giao dch ca Cng ty chng khon t ti cc a im khc nhau trong c
nc. Trc khi t lnh, khch hng phi lm th tc m ti khon ti Cng ty chng
khon.

Lnh ca khch hng c chuyn t Vn phng cng ty chng khon n ngi i

din ca cng ty ti sn giao dch ca S giao dch chng khon. Cc lnh mua bn c
u gi vi nhau. Kt qu giao dch s c thng bo li cho cng ty chng khon v
khch hng ca cng ty. Nhng lnh c thc hin s chuyn sang h thng thanh ton
v lu k chng khon lm cc th tc thanh ton chuyn giao chng khon v tin.

I. M ti khon:

Trc khi t lnh, khch hng m ti khon ti cng ty chng khon. Vic m ti khon
phi c thc hin trn c s hp ng gia khch hng v cng ty chng khon.

1. Cc thng tin lin quan n ti khon

Khi m ti khon, khch hng phi cung cp cc thng tin sau cho cng ty chng khon:
- Tn y
- a ch thng tr.
- S in thoi
- S chng minh th.
- Cc thng tin khc nh s ti khon ti ngn hng, s ti khon chng khon ti cng ty
chng khon khc (nu c), thu nhp v kin thc v th trng chng khon.
- Khi c bt k s thay i no lin quan n cc thng tin trn, khch hng phi thng
bo ngay cho cng ty chng khon.

2. Loi ti khon:

- Ti khon lu k:
Hu ht ti khon ca khch hng l ti khon lu k. Khch hng mua v bn chng
khon thng qua ti khon ny trn c s giao ngay. Nu khch hng khng thc hin
c vic thanh ton vo ngy thanh ton quy nh, cng ty chng khon c quyn bn
chng khon c trn ti khon ly tin thanh ton.

- Ti khon k qu:
Khch hng c th s dng ti khon ny vay tin hoc chng khon ca cng ty
chng khon.

- Ti khon u thc:
L ti khon qua khch hng u thc cho nh mi gii quyn mua v bn chng khon
m khng cn thng bo hoc c s ng ca khch hng.

3. Bo co ti khon

Hng thng, cng ty chng khon phi gi cho khch hng bn bo co v tnh trng ti
khon ca khch hng. Bo co phi ghi r mi s thay i trn ti khon.

II. t lnh v loi lnh

1. t lnh

Khi khch hng mun giao dch, h phi t lnh bng mt trong cc hnh thc sau y:

- t lnh trc tip ti phng lnh ca cng ty chng khon.

- t lnh qua in thoi.
- Qua mng vi tnh ni mng trc tip vi phng lnh ca cng ty chng khon.

Ni dung ca mu lnh gm cc thng tin sau:

- Lnh l Mua hay Bn, c in sn vi mu khc nhau.
- S lng.
- Tn chng khon, m s loi chng khon.
- Tn ca khch hng v m s.
- Ngy gi t lnh.
- Thi gian c hiu lc ca lnh.

2. Loi lnh

a. Lnh th trng (Market order): Ngi ra lnh chp nhn mua, bn theo gi hin hnh
trn th trng.

b. Lnh gii hn (Limit order): i vi vic cho bn, gi gii hn l gi thp nht sn
sng bn. i vi vic cho mua, l gi cao nht sn sng mua.

c. Lnh dng (Stop order)

Lnh dng bn: Khch hng mua 100 c phn vi gi 12 ngn ng/c phn. Sau mt
thi gian gi c phiu ny ln ti 20 ngn ng/c phn. Khch hng cha mun bn v
ng ta cho rng gi cn tng na. Nhng phng trng hp gi khng tng m li
gim, khch hng ny t lnh dng vi ngi i din cng ty chng khon bn vi
gi 19 ngn ng/c phn chng hn. Nu thc t gi c phiu khng tng m li gim
th gi c phiu gim ti 19 ngn, ngi mi gii s bn cho ng ta.

Lnh dng mua: Lnh ny thng c dng trong trng hp bn khng gii hn
s thua l. Chng hn khch hng vay ca cng ty chng khon mt s c phn v bn i
vi gi 30 ngn ng/c phn vi hy vng gi c phiu gim xung ti 20 ngn ng/ c
phn, ng ta s mua tr. Nhng phng trng hp gi c phiu khng gim m
li tng, khch hng t mt lnh dng mua vi gi 35 ngn ng. Khi gi ln ti
35 ngn ng, ngi mi gii s mua c phiu cho ng ta v ng ta gii hn s thua
l ca mnh mc 5 ngn ng / c phn.

Mt lnh dng mua c a ra trn mc gi th trng hin hnh cn mt lnh dng

bn c a ra thp hn gi th trng hin hnh..

Cc loi lnh khc: cc loi lnh c a ra nhm nhng mc ch nht nh

- Lnh gii hn dng (stop limit): cng ging nh mt lnh dng nhng n s chuyn
thnh mt lnh gii hn ch khng chuyn thnh mt lnh th trng khi t ti im
dng.
- Lnh thc hin ton b hay hu b (Fill or Kill): loi lnh ny c thc hin ngay ton
b hoc hu b.
- Lnh thc hin ngay hoc hu b (Immediate or cancel IOC): lnh c thc hin ngay
mt phn no , phn cn li b hu b.
- Lnh ton b hoc khng (All or None, AON): vi mt thi hn cho trc, chng hn
mt ngy, lnh phi c thc hin ton b, nu khng khch hng s khng chp nhn
vic thc hin .

III. nh gi trn S giao dch:

a. u gi nh k v u gi lin tc:

u gi nh k l h thng trong cc lnh mua v lnh bn c tch t li trong mt

khong thi gian nht nh, sau mi c ghp vi nhau hnh thnh mt mc gi
duy nht ti im c khi lng mua v bn ln nht c thc hin.
u gi lin tc l h thng trong cc lnh mua v lnh bn lin tc c ghp vi
nhau nu c th.

u gi nh k c u im l cho php hnh thnh gi c tt nht trn c s khi lng

mua bn ln c tch t li. u gi nh k thch hp vi th trng c khi lng giao
dch nh; n cho php gim bt s bin ng qu mc ca gi c. Tuy nhin, vic u gi
lin tc li thch hp vi th trng c khi lng giao dch ln. N cho php hnh thnh
gi c tc thi p ng c nhng thay i thng xuyn v thng tin trn th trng.

Thng thng cc nc c th trng chng khon pht trin u p dng c phng thc
u gi nh k v u gi lin tc. Mi ngy giao dch c th c 1 hoc 2 phin giao dch
(bui sng v bui chiu). Vo u gi phin giao dch bui sng, ngi ta xc nh gi
m ca theo phng thc u gi nh k. Sau vic giao dch c thc hin theo
phng thc u gi lin tc. Cui ngy giao dch, ngi ta li xc nh gi ng ca
theo phng thc u gi nh k.

b. Nguyn tc ghp lnh

- Gi mua cao hn gi c bn v gi bn thp hn gi c bn s c thc hin trc.
- Phn b t bn c khi lng t sang bn c khi lng nhiu.
- Nu sau khi khp lnh c nhiu mc gi cng tho mn th ly mc gi gn vi gi
ng ca ca ngy hm trc hay mc gi ca ngay phin giao dch trc .

c. Cc nguyn tc u tin trong vic so khp lnh

- Nguyn tc c bn u tin c p dng l nguyn tc u tin v gi. Theo nguyn tc
ny, cc lnh c gi tt nht (cho mua cao nht v cho bn thp nht) c u tin thc
hin trc.

Ngoi nguyn tc c bn trn y, nhng nguyn tc ph sau y s c p dng:

- Nguyn tc u tin v thi gian: trong nhng lnh c cng mc gi, lnh no n trc
s c u tin thc hin trc.

- u tin v khch hng: c hai loi khch hng l khch hng c nhn v khch hng l
nh u t c t chc nh cng ty chng khon, qu u tSGDCK thng p dng
quy tc u tin khch hng l c nhn trc khch hng l nh u t c t chc.

- u tin v khi lng: lnh no c khi lng ln hn s c u tin phn phi trc.
- u tin ngu nhin : theo nguyn tc ny, ngi ta ch p dng u tin v gi. Sau
cc lnh khi a vo h thng s c my tnh sp xp mt cch ngu nhin

IV. Giao dch c bit

1. Giao dch khi

Nhng giao dch c khi lng ln (s c phiu v tr gi ln) c gi l l ln. Thng

thng nhng giao dch c khi lng ln c giao dch theo cch thc ring gi l giao
dch khi. C hai cch giao dch l:
- T chc u thu.
- Thng lng da trn gi ng ca.

2. Giao dch l l

L l l nhng l khi t
1 ti 9 c phiu (trng hp l chn 10 c phiu)
1 ti 99 c phiu (trng hp l chn 100 c phiu)
1 ti 999 c phiu (trng hp l chn 1.000 c phiu).
Gi giao dch l l thng c xc nh trn c s quyt nh ca Cng ty mi gii cn
c vo gi ng ca ca ngy giao dch hm trc.
Vic giao dch l l c thc hin ti cng ty chng khon v trong giao dch l l, cng
ty mi gii thng thu ph cao hn.

3. Giao dch chng khon khng c c tc

nh k, theo quyt nh ca Hi ng qun tr, cng ty c phn c th tr c tc bng
tin hoc c phiu. Nhng c ng c danh sch vo ngy ng k cui cng s c
nhn c tc. Nhng c ng s hu chng khon t sau ngy kho s s khng c
nhn c tc. Nu ngy thanh ton l T+3 th chng khon khng c c tc s nh sau:
27/12 28/12 29/12 30/12 31/12

Ngy c c tc ex-divident Ngy ng k Ngy kho s cui cng (khng c c tc)

Vo ngy chng khon khng c c tc, gi tham chiu s bng gi ng ca ngy hm
trc tr i c tc.
- Trng hp tr c tc bng c phiu
Gi tham chiu = Gi ng ca ngy hm trc /
1 + t l tr c tc bng c phiu
- Trng hp tr c tc bng tin v bng c phiu
Gi tham chiu = Gi ng ca ngy hm trc c tc bng tin/
1+ t l tr c tc bng c phiu

4. Giao dch khng hng quyn mua c phiu mi

Cng ty c phn thng u tin cho c ng hin ti quyn t mua c phiu trong
trng hp pht hnh chng khon tng vn. Tng t nh vic nhn c tc, nhng c
ng c danh sch vo ngy ng k cui cng s c hng quyn ny. Nh vy, nu
ngy thanh ton l T+3 th ngy giao dch c phiu khng c hng quyn t mua s
nh sau:
27/12 28/12 29/12 30/12 31/12
Ngy c c tc ex-divident Ngy ng k Ngy kho s cui cng (khng c c tc)

5. Giao dch chng khon ngn qu

Chng khon ngn qu l phn chng khon do cng ty pht hnh mua li chnh chng
khon do mnh pht hnh ra nhm chng li vic b thu tm, hp nht hoc hn ch
gi chng khon b gim mnh.

Vic mua li chng khon phi chu s qun l cht ch ca s giao dch chng khon
(SGDCK). Cng ty pht hnh m mt ti khon ti 1 cng ty chng khon ch nh.
Mt ngy trc ngy giao dch cng ty phi trnh cho SGD n xin mua chng khon
(trnh by r s lng v gi t mua). S lng khng c qu 10% c phiu lu hnh.

Lnh phi t trc khi m ca th trng v ch c t lnh mt ln trong mt ngy.

Vic mua li ch c thc hin trong phm vi 3 thng v trong vng 6 thng khng c
bn li chng khon ra th trng k t ngy mua li.
Gi t mua chng khon ngn qu khng c vt qu gi ng ca ngy hm trc
trong mt t l nht nh.

6. Giao dch k qu
- Mua k qu: l vic khch hng vay tin ca cng ty chng khon mua chng khon.
Vi phng thc mua k qu, khch hng c th tng lng li nhun c thu trn mt
tng u t nht nh, v cng ty chng khon th thu c ph hoa hng do vic thc
hin mt khi lng dch v ln hn, ng thi cng thu tin li trn tin cho khch hng
vay. Loi giao dch ny c thc hin trn ti khon bo chng.

V d: Bn d on c phiu thng ABC vi gi hin thi l 15.000 ng mt c phiu,

s tng gi trong vng 1 nm, ln 30.000 ng. Vi s tin bn c l 1.500.000 ng, bn
c th mua 100 c phiu ABC, nm gi trong mt nm v bn ra thu v 3.000.000
ng, t mc li tc trn u t l 100%.

Tuy nhin, bn cng c th thc hin vic k qu bng cch tr 50% tng gi mua, 50%
cn li s vay ti cng ty chng khon, ni bn m ti khon k qu. Trong trng hp
ny, bn c th u t 3.000.000 ng v mua 200 c phiu. Nu d on ca bn l
ng, gi th trng ca c phiu ABC tng ln 30.000 ng trong vng 1 nm, bn c
th bn c phiu ra v thu v 6.000.000 ng. Tt nhin, trong s 6.000.000 ng thu v
ny bn phi tr li 1.500.000 vay ca cng ty chng khon, v tin li ca khon
vay , gi s vi li sut 10% mt nm:
6.000.000 1.500.000 150.000 = 4.350.000 (ng)

Li nhun ca bn s l chnh lch gia con s u t ban u 1.5 triu, tc l bng

2.850.000 ng, li tc so vi u t l 190%. Vy mua k qu lm tng t l li
nhun ca bn ln ng k.

Tuy nhin, mua k qu cng nh con dao hai li. Nu c phiu ln gi, bn s c li
ng k, nhng nu c phiu gim gi, khon l ca bn cng tng ln. Ngay c khi c
phiu vn gi nguyn mc gi, bn cng vn thua l, bi s li phi tr cho s tin vay
trong sut thi gian k qu c ln dn ln. V hn na, khng phi chng khon no
cng c php giao dch theo mc ny.

Mc k qu ban u c thc hin theo lut nh, v d nh lut M l 50%. Sau ,

nu gi th trng ca c phiu thay i, t l ca s d k qu ca khch hng so vi s
d n c th gim xung nhng khng xung thp hn 25% nu tt xung qu ngng
ny, cng ty chng khon c th yu cu khch hng t thm tin k qu.

* Giao dch t 25% tr ln s c phiu c qyn biu quyt

Theo quy nh ti iu 58 Quy ch giao dch, thnh vin, nim yt v cng b thng tin
ca UBCKNN, mt t chc hoc c nhn mun thc hin giao dch CK vi khi lng t
25% tr ln s c phiu c quyn biu quyt ca mt t chc nim yt phi t chc u
thu cng khai, v vi khi lng giao dch t 25% tr ln thc cht l giao dch mua li
cng ty (thu tm cng ty) dnh quyn kim sot cng ty. Tuy nhin, hin ti Vit
Nam cha c nhng quy nh c th v vic u thu cng khai.
V vy gip bn c hiu c cch thc u thu nh th no, xin gii thiu cch
thc u thu m cc nc hin ang p dng. C phiu tham gia u thu l c phiu c
quyn biu quyt. S lng c phiu cho mua t 25% hoc hn trong tng s c phiu
c quyn biu quyt pht hnh. Thi gian thc hin u thu thng thng l 6 thng
nhng ti a khng qu 1 nm. S lng bn tham gia bn t 10 tr ln.

Vic u thu s c tin hnh bn ngoi S giao dch chng khon v theo cc bc
sau:

1. Trc tin bn cho mua cn phi t chc i hi c ng, i din ban gim c iu
hnh trnh by n thu tm v ly kin ca c ng. Trn c s xem xt nh gi
hiu qu ca n, i hi s b phiu, theo HQT s ra ngh quyt. Nu kt qu b
phiu ng h n thu tm th Ch tch HQT s ra ngh quyt tin hnh mua c phiu
cng ty mc tiu, kim sot.

2. Sau khi Ch tch HQT ra quyt nh, cng ty gi bin bn hp i hi c ng ln

UBCKNN v S giao dch chng khon km theo n ngh v vic tin hnh thu tm
cng ty mc tiu, bng hnh thc u thu mua cng khai. Ni dung n ngh gm:
mc ch ca vic thu tm, ngun ti chnh phc v cho vic thu tm, thi gian cho
mua (thi gian tin hnh u thu), gi t mua, thi hn thanh ton, tnh hnh hot ng
kinh doanh hin ti ca cng ty k c cc cng ty con, cc t chc ph tr c lin quan
nh ngn hng, cng ty mi gii..., thc trng sn xut kinh doanh v tnh hnh ti chnh
ca cng ty mc tiu, loi v s lng c phiu cho mua, phng php thc hin,
phng n kinh doanh sau khi u thu thnh cng v cc vn khc.

3. Cng ty thu tm tho thun vi cng ty mi gii l thnh vin ca s giao dch chng
khon v cc nghip v, u thc mua gia khch hng vi cng ty mi gii, bo qun
chng khon, thanh ton v cc tho thun khc.

4. Cc loi ti liu np gm: h s ng k kinh doanh (ng k thnh lp v iu l hot

ng ca cng ty), vn bn tha thun gia cng ty vi cng ty mi gii v cc nghip v
ni trn, xc nhn ca t chc ti chnh v s tin k qu ca cng ty, bn sao v vic
thng bo trn bo ch v cc ti liu khc c lin quan.

5. Gi thng bo ti cng ty mc tiu v vic tin hnh mua c phiu ca cng ty.

6. Thng bo ra cng chng trn cc phng tin truyn thng, bo ch c bit trn cc
t bo pht hnh hng ngy.

7. Thi gian thc hin: 7 ngy sau khi trnh bn thng bo ln UBCKNN v s giao
dch chng khon.

8. Lp v thuyt minh bn co bch gi ti cc c quan trn. Sau khi nhn c n

ngh do cng ty cho mua gi ti, UBCKNN t chc xem xt h s a ra kt lun
cui cng c cho php tin hnh thu tm hay khng, trong trng hp khng cho php
th UBCKNN phi c gii thch r l do khng ng . Thi hn xt duyt khng qu 7
ngy lm vic, vic xt duyt phi da vo tnh kh thi ca n thu tm, trong yu
t ti chnh v tnh hiu qu ca vic thu tm ny l hai yu t c bit quan trng.
Phng thc giao dch tho thun ti TTGDCKHN

Sn giao dch th cp ca Trung tm GDCK H Ni bt u hot ng t gia thng

7/2005. Trong thi gian u, Trung tm GDCK H Ni p dng phng thc giao dch
tho thun. Mt s ni dung c bn v hot ng giao dch hin nay ti sn giao dch th
cp ca Trung tm GDCK H Ni bao gm:

Qui nh v giao dch

Thi gian giao dch: T 9h00-11h00 vo tt c cc ngy lm vic trong tun (tr cc ngy
ngh theo qui nh ti B Lut Lao ng).
Gi tham chiu: l bnh qun gia quyn ca cc mc gi giao dch ca ngy c giao dch
gn nht.
Bin giao ng gi:

i vi c phiu: +/- 10%

i vi tri phiu: khng qui nh bin

n v yt gi: 100 ng

n v giao dch: khng qui nh

Khi lng giao dch ti thiu:

i vi c phiu: 5.000 c phiu

i vi tri phiu: 100 triu ng tnh theo mnh gi

Hnh thc thanh ton:

Cc lnh c khi lng nh hn 100.000 c phiu hoc nh hn 10 t ng mnh gi tri

phiu: hnh thc thanh ton a phng vi chu k T+3

Cc lnh c khi lng ln hn hoc bng 100.000 c phiu hoc 10 t ng mnh gi

tri phiu th c la chn 1 trong 3 hnh thc sau:

* a phng vi chu k thanh ton T+3

* Song phng vi chu k thanh ton T+2

* Trc tip vi chu k thanh ton t T+1 n T+3

Trnh t giao dch tho thun

Nguyn tc giao dch:

Cc giao dch phi c thc hin thng qua cng ty chng khon thnh vin ca Trung
tm GDCK H Ni.

Trc tin, thc hin giao dch nh u t phi m ti khon giao dch chng khon
ti mt cng ty chng khon l thnh vin ca Trung tm GDCK H Ni. Nh u t s
c cng ty chng khon hng dn y cc th tc m ti khon giao dch chng
khon. Sau khi tm hiu k v cc loi chng khon ng k giao dch trn Trung tm
GDCK H Ni, nh u t c th bt u a ra cc quyt nh u t ca mnh.

Khi t lnh mua bn chng khon, nh u t phi m bo t l k qu trn ti

khon. C th l, khi t lnh bn th nh u t phi c s chng khon trong ti
khon, cn khi t lnh mua th nh u t phi c s tin k qu theo tho thun vi
cng ty chng khon.
Trng hp xc nh c i tc giao dch:
Nu nh u t tm c i tc giao dch v hon tt tho thun giao dch th thng
bo cho cng ty chng khon v tho thun ny, cng ty chng khon s thc hin nhp
lnh giao dch vo h thng ca Trung tm GDCK H Ni.

Trng hp cha xc nh c i tc giao dch:

Khi c nhu cu giao dch, nh u t s t lnh mua/lnh bn ti cng ty chng khon.

Cn c vo lnh ca nh u t, cng ty chng khon s nhp lnh vo h thng giao
dch ti Trung tm GDCK H Ni, ngay lp tc cc lnh s c hin th trn s lnh
ca th trng.
Cn c vo thng tin trn s lnh, cc cng ty chng khon s lin lc vi nhau gip
nh u t tm kim v tho thun vi cc i tc giao dch v mc gi v khi lng
giao dch. Khi t c tho thun, cng ty chng khon s thc hin lnh giao dch cho
nh u t.

* H thng giao dch ca Trung tm GDCK H Ni s nhn v xc nhn cc lnh giao

dch do cng ty chng khon nhp vo v s a ra kt qu giao dch tng hp ca ton
th trng.
* Kt qu giao dch tha thun s c hin th ngay trn mn hnh ca i din giao dch
v mn hnh thng tin ca CTCK

* Gii thiu phng thc giao dch bo gi ti Trung tm GDCK H Ni

c s ng ca Ch tch U ban chng khon Nh nc, ngy 2/11/2005, Trung tm

GDCK H Ni chnh thc a phng thc giao dch bo gi vo hot ng.

Nhng ni dung chnh trong c ch hot ng ca phng thc giao dch bo gi nh

sau:

Cc qui nh v giao dch:

Thi gian giao dch: T 9h00-11h00 cc ngy Th 2, 4, 6 hng tun (tr cc ngy ngh
theo qui nh ti B Lut Lao ng).

Hnh thc thanh ton: Giao dch bo gi: Tt c cc giao dch bo gi (gm c giao dch
c phiu v giao dch tri phiu) c thanh ton theo hnh thc thanh ton a phng
(T+3).

n v yt gi:

Giao dch bo gi:

i vi c phiu: 100 ng.
i vi tri phiu: khng quy nh.
Giao dch tha thun: khng quy nh.
n v giao dch: Giao dch bo gi: 100 c phiu hoc 10.000.000 ng (mi triu
ng) tnh theo mnh gi tri phiu.

Gi tham chiu: Gi tham chiu ca c phiu l bnh qun gia quyn cc gi thc hin
qua phng thc giao dch bo gi ca ngy c giao dch gn nht.

Bin dao ng gi:

Bin dao ng gi trong ngy giao dch i vi c phiu l 10%.

Khng p dng bin dao ng gi i vi cc giao dch tri phiu.
Hiu lc ca lnh: trong phin giao dch, lnh gii hn c nhp vo h thng giao dch
c hiu lc cho n ht phin hoc cho n khi lnh b hu trn h thng.

Loi lnh giao dch: Lnh giao dch bo gi l lnh gii hn.

Nguyn tc thc hin lnh giao dch bo gi

Cc lnh c mc gi tt nht c u tin thc hin trc.

Nu c nhiu lnh cng mc gi th lnh no c nhp vo h thng trc s c thc
hin trc.
Nu lnh mua v lnh bn cng tho mn nhau v gi th mc gi thc hin s l mc gi
ca lnh c nhp vo h thng trc.
Lnh giao dch c th c thc hin ton b hoc mt phn theo bi s ca n v giao
dch.
Sa, hy lnh: Nh u t c php hu lnh hoc thay i mc gi i vi cc lnh
cha c khp hoc phn cn li ca lnh khp mt phn.

Cc bc tin hnh giao dch bo gi:

Sau khi nh u t t lnh (mua/bn) ti cc cng ty chng khon, i din giao dch ca
cng ty chng khon s nhp cc lnh ca khch hng vo h thng giao dch ti Trung
tm GDCK H Ni. Nu nh u t mun thc hin lnh theo phng thc tho thun
hoc mun thc hin ton b khi lng th phi ghi r nhng yu cu ny trn phiu
lnh, cng ty chng khon s thc hin nhng lnh ny theo phng thc tho thun. Nu
phiu lnh khng c cc yu cu trn th i din giao dch ca cng ty chng khon s
nhp lnh vo h thng giao dch bo gi.
Cc lnh t ny c hin th trn mn hnh ca i din giao dch v mn hnh thng tin
ca cng ty chng khon.

Nh u t theo di cc lnh (mua/bn) thng qua mn hnh thng tin ti cng ty chng
khon v la chn cc lnh ph hp t lnh i ng.
Cc lnh nhp vo h thng s c t ng khp ngay vi cc lnh i ng c mc gi
tho mn tt nht ch sn trong h thng. Tc l, nu tho mn v gi th cc lnh mua
c mc gi cao nht s c khp vi cc lnh bn c mc gi thp nht. Mc gi thc
hin c xc nh l mc gi ca lnh c nhp vo h thng trc.

Nu cng mt mc gi m c nhiu lnh mua/lnh bn th lnh no nhp vo h thng

trc s c thc hin trc.
Cc lnh c th c thc hin mt phn hoc ton b (nu cc lnh i ng p ng
c ton b khi lng). Cc lnh cha c thc hin hoc mi thc hin mt phn s
c lu li trn h thng ch thc hin vi cc lnh mi.

Kt qu giao dch s c hin th trc tuyn trn mn hnh thng tin ca cc cng ty
chng khon.
Kt thc phin giao dch, TTGDCK H Ni s xc nhn kt qu giao dch vi cng ty
chng khon thnh vin v cng ty chng khon thnh vin thng bo cho khch hng.

nh gi c phiu

Nhiu th trng chng khon trn th gii i lc xy ra trng hp ch s c phiu tng

vt nhiu ln so vi gi tr thc ca n. Vn ny i khi nh hng tiu cc n th
trng cng nh tm l ca cc nh u t

Rt nhiu cc chuyn gia v chng khon v ngi u t cho rng, vic tng gi nhanh
nh vy l kt qu tt yu ca s mt cn i cung cu qu ln. Vic tng gi mnh ca
cc c phiu trn th trng chng khon i khi c tc ng rt tt n s tin tng ca
cc tng lp dn c vo th trng chng khon.

Tuy nhin, vic tng gi lin tc s to ra mt p lc rt ln ln th trng chng khon.

Bt chp vic nhiu chuyn gia ln ting cnh bo v hin tng tng gi qu cao so
vi gi tr thc, gn y nht l mt s S giao dch chng khon trn th gii cnh
bo cho ngi u t bit gi ca mt s c phiu ln ti mc qu cao nhng cc c
phiu vn tip tc ln gi.
Bi vit ny s ln lt phn tch gi c phiu ca mt s cng ty nim yt tm xem
u l phn thc, u l phn o. Trc ht tin cho vic theo di v phn tch gi c
phiu, chng ta im qua mt s phng php tnh gi c phiu. Hin ti cc nh phn
tch chng khon trn th gii dng kh nhiu phng php tnh v d on gi c
phiu. Ngoi ra, n gin ho vn , tc gi s ly gi cao nht trong cc gi c phiu
tnh theo cc phng php trn lm gi tr thc ca c phiu c phn tch.

nh gi c phiu ph thng theo phng php chit khu lung thu nhp (DCF)

Phng php nh gi chit khu lung thu nhp (DCF) c da trn mt nguyn l c
bn l tin c gi tr theo thi gian, mt ng tin ca ngy hm nay lun c gi tr hn
mt ng tin ca ngy mai, mt ng u t vo trong doanh nghip ny c mc sinh li
khc vi mt ng u t trong doanh nghip khc, do , gi tr ca doanh nghip c
xc nh bng cc lung thu nhp d kin m doanh nghip thu c trong tng lai
c quy v gi tr hin ti bng cch chit khu chng bng mt mc li sut chit khu
ph hp vi mc ri ro ca doanh nghip .

Do vy, trong phng php DCF c 3 thng s c bn nht cn c xc nh, l

lung thu nhp cng ty s thu v trong tng lai, mc li sut chit khu lung thu nhp
v thi hn tn ti d tnh ca doanh nghip. Phng php ny c p dng ph bin
nhng nc th trng chng khon pht trin, ni thng c y thng tin v lch
s cng nh thng tin hin ti v d bo hp l v tnh hnh ti chnh v ri ro ca doanh
nghip.

Hin nay, vic p dng cng thc ny Vit Nam cng c nhiu ngi chp nhn bi
gi c phiu tnh theo phng php ny phn nh c tng i y mi mt bn
cht hot ng sn xut kinh doanh ca cng ty so vi cc phng php khc v ng
trn quan im ca nh u t th, ngoi vic tnh ton theo phng php ny rt n
gin, n cn p ng ng suy ngh, nguyn vng ca h khi u t vo mt doanh
nghip.

Tuy nhin, ti Vit Nam vic p dng cng thc ny c mt s kh khn lm cho vic
c tnh ngun thu trong tng lai ca cc cng ty kh c th chnh xc nh: Tnh hnh
mi trng kinh doanh c nhiu bin ng; Cc doanh nghip Vit Nam trong c cc
cng ty ang nim yt u cha quen vi lp k hoch sn xut kinh doanh di hn, c
bit l cn xa l vi vic d bo chi tit lung tin di hn ra, vo cng ty... Do , bi
vit s iu chnh li cng thc ny theo hng 5 nm v cng gi tr ti sn rng c
tnh vo thi im nim yt. Cng thc c iu chnh s l:

P = Po + E1/(1+r) + E2/(1+r)2 + E3/(1+r)3 + E4/(1+r)4 + E5/(1+r)5

nh gi c phiu ph thng theo phng php h s P/E

y l phng php cng c p dng ph bin cc th trng chng khon pht

trin. H s P/E l h s gia gi c phiu (th gi) v thu nhp hng nm ca mt c
phiu em li cho ngi nm gi. Thng thng, d tnh gi ca mt loi c phiu,
ngi ta thng dng thu nhp trn mi c phiu ca cng ty nhn vi h s P/E trung
bnh ngnh hoc ca mt cng ty tng t v qui m, ngnh ngh v c giao dch
trn th trng.

Vic p dng h s P/E tnh gi c phiu ti Vit nam cn gp phi nhiu kh khn do
thiu s liu v th trng chng khon cha pht trin. Ti cc th trng pht trin,
theo s liu thng k v ch s P/E, h s ny t 8-15 l bnh thng, nu h s ny ln
hn 20 th cng ty ang c nh gi rt tt v ngi u t trng i trong tng lai,
mc thu nhp trn mt c phiu ca cng ty s tng nhanh. Trng hp cng ty c h s
P/E thp c th l do th trng khng nh gi cao cng ty hoc cha hiu bit nhiu
v cng ty. Khi tt c cc c phiu trn th trng u c gi qu cao so vi gi tr thc
ca ca n th phn bong bng s vt qu phn thc v nht nh c ngy n tung, gy
khng hong th trng nh tng thy cc nc pht trin.

nh gi c phiu da trn c s ti sn rng c iu chnh

.
Quan im chung ca phng php ny cho rng, mt cng ty c gi tr khng km hn
tng cc gi tr ca tng loi ti sn ring ca n tr i cc khon n ca n. Ti sn ring
y c hiu bao gm c nhng gi tr li th ca cng ty. Gi c phiu ca cng ty c
th c tnh theo phng php tng qut sau:

Gi c phiu = (Gi tr ti sn rng + Gi tr li th)/Tng s c phiu nh pht hnh

Phng php ny thng c s dng tnh ton gi tham chiu v so snh. Vit
Nam, phng php ny c p dng ph bin cho cc doanh nghip nh nc thc hin
c phn ho. Tuy nhin, gi tr ti sn rng ca cng ty d c nh gi chnh xc n
u cng ch th hin gi tr thanh l ca cng ty, trong khi i vi ngi u t mua
c phiu th tng lai ca cng ty mi l iu ng quan tm hn c.

Trong cc doanh nghip c phn ho Vit Nam c nhiu loi ti sn m chng ta khng
xc nh c gi do khng c th trng cho cc loi ti sn ny, nhng c mt loi ti
sn m ai cng thy r l ang gp phn khin cho cc doanh nghip nh nc c phn
ho c nh gi thp l gi tr quyn s dng t. Quan st cho thy, vic quyn s
dng t trong cc doanh nghip nh nc c phn ho c nh gi thp hn gi c trn
th trng nh t t 4 n 5 ln khng phi l hin tng c bit.

Hn th na, trong nhiu doanh nghip, quyn s dng t l mt ti sn c gi tr cao

nht, chim mt t trng rt ln trong tng ti sn ca cng ty. Trong khun kh hn hp
ca bi vit ny v da trn mt s s liu v c phn ho, bi vit s tnh nhng thiu ht
trong qu trnh nh gi ca cc doanh nghip nh nc c phn bng cch nhn tng gi
tr ti sn rng ca cng ty ln 2 ln.

Da trn cc phng php c gii thiu trn v ch s dng mt cch my mc nhng

con s ghi trn trn bo co ti chnh nm 1999 v 2000 c cng b ca cc cng ty
nim yt, cc bn c th t tnh ton c gi tr c phiu ca cc cng ty. Tuy nhin,
theo nhng tnh ton nu trn th gi c phiu vn cha th hin c hon ton v cc
gi tr thc ca cng ty m n phn nh. c th hiu c mt cch r nt v ton din
hn, chng ta cn phi i su vo phn tch nhng yu t phi nh lng khc nhng li
nh hng rt ln n nhng kt qu tnh ton nu trn. Nhng yu t m bn cn phi
tnh n khi phn tch v tnh gi c phiu ca mt cng ty bao gm:

- tin cy ca s liu;

- Mc ri ro trong hot ng ca cng ty bao gm c nhng yu t nh tnh hnh th

trng v trin vng ca cng ty (iu ny s nh hng rt ln n thi hn hot ng cu
cng ty, h s chit khu trong cng thc tnh DCF);

- Nhng yu t lin quan n ti sn v hnh ca cng ty nh trnh qun l ca ban

gim c, uy tn sn phm, nhn hiu thng mi, cht lng sn phm c th hin
theo cc tiu chun ISO.

Hn ch ri r khi u t vo tri phiu

Tri phiu cng ty l cc cam kt n ti chnh ca mt cng ty, trong cng ty pht
hnh ha s tr li nh k v hon tr ton b khon n vo ngy o hn.

Vic cng ty pht hnh n nh li sut tri phiu nh th no s tu thuc vo tnh hnh
kinh doanh ca cng ty, cng nh li sut chung ca th trng. Tri phiu cng ty c
phn lm 4 loi gm tin ch cng cng, vn chuyn, cng nghip, ngn hng v cng ty
ti chnh.

Ngi ta thng phn tch bng thng k chi tit phn loi ng nht hn. Chng hn,
khu vc tin ch cng cng c chia thnh cng ty in nng, cng ty phn phi kh t,
cng ty nc v cng ty truyn thng. Khu vc vn chuyn bao gm cc cng ty hng
khng, cng ty vn chuyn ng st v cng ty xe ti. Khu vc cng nghip c cc cng
ty ch to, hng ha v dch v

Phn ln tri phiu cng ty l tri phiu nh k, tc l c hiu lc trong mt thi hn, sau
n k o hn s c chi tr. Bt c khon n no khng c tr ht trc ngy
o hn phi c thanh ton ht vo thi im ny. Thi k o hn c th di hay ngn
nhng thng thng, cc tri phiu c thi gian o hn di 5 nm l ngn hn. Cc tri
phiu c thi hn t 5 n 10 nm c gi l trung hn. cc nc cng nghip pht
trin, tri phiu cng ty c thi hn 20 n 30 nm, c loi n 100 nm v c loi khng
ghi thi hn o hn (l loi tri phiu vnh vin). Cc chng khon n do cng ty pht
hnh di rt nhiu hnh thc nh:

Tri phiu theo lot o hn: l tri phiu cng ty c thu xp sao cho c nhiu thi
im o hn khc nhau c n nh r.

Tri phiu c y thc th chp: ngi gi tri phiu cm thy an ton, cc cng ty ch
qun s th chp chng khon, tri phiu trung hn, tri phiu di hn, hay bt c cam kt
n no khc m cng ty s hu. Mt tri phiu c th chp cng nhn ngi gi tri
phiu c quyn i vi cc ti sn c th chp. Trong thc t, vic tch thu v bn ti
sn th chp t xy ra. D vy, quyn gi ti sn th chp rt quan trng, bi v n em li
cho ngi gi tri phiu mt v th chc chn so vi cc ch n khc khi xc nh cc
thi hn ti t chc hot ng ti chnh.

Tri phiu di dng n: l cc chng khon n khng c bo m bi mt ti sn th

chp c th. Nhng iu khng c ngha l ngi gi tri phiu ny khng c quyn
i vi ti sn ca nh pht hnh hay thu nhp ca h. Nhng ngi gi tri phiu di
dng n c quyn ca ch n i vi tt c nhng ti sn ca nh pht hnh khng c
th chp.

Tri phiu c bo m: Tri phiu c bo m l cc cam kt n c bo m bi

mt cng ty khc. Kh nng an ton ca mt tri phiu c bo m ph thuc vo kh
nng ti chnh ca cng ty ng ra bo m cng nh kh nng ti chnh ca nh pht
hnh.

Tri phiu chuyn i: Tri phiu chuyn i c th cho php cc tri ch quyn c
chuyn i tri phiu ca h thnh c phiu thng. T l c phiu thng m h c th
i c vi tri phiu gi l t l chuyn i. Tri phiu c th chuyn i vo mt ngy
nht nh trong tng lai v thng c mt iu khon v t l chuyn i c ban hnh
khi tri phiu gn ngy n hn.

Hu ht cc tri phiu cng ty c mt iu khon lnh gi cho php nh pht hnh

quyn chn mua li ton b hay mt phn tri phiu trc ngy o hn n nh. Mt
s tri phiu mi nu r nh pht hnh phi thu hi theo nh k mt s tri phiu xc
nh trc.

Cc nh pht hnh thng mun c quyn ny v h nhn thy rng, vo mt thi im

no trong tng lai, mc li sut chung ca th trng c th xung thp hn li sut
ca tri phiu cng ty n mc cn thc hin thu hi tri phiu v thay th bng mt tri
phiu khc c li sut thp hn.

Cc tri phiu pht hnh c quyn chuyn nhng mt cch d dng. V vy, khi quyt
nh u t vo tri phiu cng ty, ngoi vic phi ch ti ngi pht hnh, hnh thc
pht hnh, tnh cch o hn, t l li nhun nh u t cn thn trng vi cc n nh,
tr gi chuyn i, iu khon thu hi... hiu tht r nhng ri ro bao hm trong .

Phn tch - d bo gi c phiu

Nh u t cn phi nm vng nhng vn bn cht nht ca phn tch v d bo gi c

phiu...
Nh u t cn phi nm vng nhng vn bn cht nht ca phn tch v d bo gi c
phiu, v do phi xem xt ton din, tng th cc ni dung chnh yu sau:

1. Tin hnh phn tch CP trn th trng vi mc tiu l a ra d bo v gi CP v xu

hng gi CP trong tng lai, tm kh nng sinh li cao. l mt trong nhng ni dung
quan trng - xc nh giai on no ca chu k CP tng trng - gip nh u t cn nhc
i n quyt nh u t CK c hiu qu nht.
2. u t vo CP, vi tnh cht sinh li v ri ro cao, nh u t thng s dng mt
lng tin kh ln hoc cc ln kinh doanh CK, do , h rt quan tm vic d bo
din bin gi CP. Nu d on gi c din bin ng, s mang li thnh cng ln; v
ngc li, s thua thit, thm ch c khi dn n ph sn. Chnh v vy, phn tch CP
tr thnh mt ngnh kinh doanh ln v c xu hng ngy cng pht trin - theo i hi
ngy cng cao ca nh u t - v th trng ngy cng pht trin a dng v phc tp
hn.
3. Mun phn tch CP d bo tt v din bin gi c CP, nh u t cn phi xem xt,
nghin cu v tm ra cu tr li tho ng cc vn c th: a/ Cc CP no s ln gi - v
sao?
b/ Cc CP ln gi bao nhiu - do u?
c/ Trong thi gian bao lu, th cc CP t mc tng nh vy - v u? Phi phn tch v
tm ra mt u th cnh tranh nht nh so vi cc i th khc nh: c quyn v cng
ngh, pht minh sng ch, chim lnh th trng hoc phng php qun l khoa hc, cht
ch, nng cao hiu qu kinh doanh v.v...
4.Trong giai on th nghim ny, hu ht ch c s tham gia ca cc nh u t c nhn,
sau 43 phin giao dch, gi lin tc tng qu cao, vt xa gi tr thc ca CP (c loi CP
gi th trng hn 3 ln so mnh gi CP) - vi tc ng ca quan h cung - cu th trng
v tm l nh u t - xu hng gi cn tip tc tng v gi tng, gim xen k, dn n
ri ro v li nhun xen k, thc s cuc chi ", en", ngi c k mt trong kinh
doanh CK. Hy cnh gic vi th trng!
5. Vn quan trng l phi xc nh v la chn CP tng trng - ngha l c phiu
c th tip tc tng trng trong tng lai, theo cc tiu ch sau:
a/ a ra cc sn phm mi hoc dch v mi, c o, c sc thu ht trn th trng, c
kh nng chim lnh th trng, t tc tng trng trong thi gian di;
b/ C chu k doanh thu n nh, tng mt cch lin tc u n;
c/ trong giai on ca chu k tng trng c li nhun cao trong mt thi gian di;
d/ v th dn u trong ngnh hot ng v c chin lc pht trin thch hp, d on
ng xu hng pht trin trong tng lai;
e/ C li nhun trn vn cao hn 15%, s dng mt phn li nhun cn li sau khi chi
tr c tc tng vn ch s ca cc c ng - ti u t pht trin;
f/ C s li t, hoc t nht l c t s n/vn c nh khong< 20% ngun vn da hn, s
gp kh khn ti chnh trong qu trnh tng trng.
6. Cn c vo cc tiu ch trn, cn phn tch k nhng loi c phiu ang lu hnh - tnh
hon thin cha . Mi loi c phiu: Sam, Ree, Hap- mang sc thi ring, tng tiu ch
"m, nht" khc nhau - ni ln l: cng ngh, sn phm, th trng, ti u t, li tc, t
s n v cc t chc qun l.vv..., c bit l chin lc pht trin trong tng lai.
Cnh gic vi th trng, v th trng vn hot ng ch vi 4 loi CP giao dch, u t
gn lin vi u c, gi tip tc bin ng. Cn tm ra cc gii hn khc nhau ca cc loi
c phiu - xc nh mc tn nhim v snh li c chin lc u t c th i vi
tng loi c phiu, bo m li nhun v thu nhp hp l l vn kh khn v gii
quyt ng n ca cc nh u t, trnh ri ro thua thit.
7/ Trong thc t kinh doanh CK, vic d bo bin ng gi v xu hng gi ngn hn c
nhiu thnh cng hn v chnh xc hn d bo xu hng di hn, v tnh nhy cm v
phc tp ca th trng chng khon. Do , phi d on v x l cc vn sau:
a/ Trong di hn, u t CP s mang li li tc vt xa cc loi u t khc, yu t quyt
nh nht v duy nht n gi CP l li nhun v
cht lng CP l quan trng nht;
b/ Trong ngn hn, u t CP c th nh hng n tnh hnh ti chnh ca nh u t;
c/ Li nhun v ri ro lun t l vi nhau, li nhun cao th ri ro cng ln; d/ Mc
bin ng ca CP ln hn nhiu so vi tri phiu, li sut tng s nh hng n gi tri
phiu;
/ Danh mc u t a dng s t ri ro hn danh mc u t tp trung;
e/ Lm pht l mi e do ln nht i vi cc khon u t di hn. l nhng vn
kinh t - ti chnh v nguyn tc kinh doanh phc tp, c tnh tng hp - nh hng do
nhiu yu t khc nhau k c trnh hiu bit ca cc chuyn gia phn tch CK cng
nh nh u t.
8/ Phn tch c bn CP nhm cung cp thng tin nh gi trin vng tng trng v li
nhun trn c s d bo tng lai ca TCPH, ca ngnh hot ng, ca nn kinh t quc
dn v trong tng lai ca c nn kinh t th gii. N bao gm cc ni dung:
a/ nh gi mi trng kinh doanh tng lai;
b/ D bo thu nhp tng lai ca TCPH;
c/ D bo mc gi CP. Do , phn tch c bn l phng php tip cn di hn, cn c
nhiu bin s phi tnh n v khng bit trc chc chn c.
9/ Phn tch k thut CP nhm nghin cu nhng din bin hay hnh vi th trng - thng
qua vic nghin cu cc m hnh giao dch v cc hnh vi hin ti ca th trng, vn
phc tp - c th bit c mt cch su sc cc hnh vi c th xy ra trong tng lai
ca th trng. Nhng thng tin v mt CP, hoc mt ngnh, hoc mt th trng u c
th c cc nh u t nghin cu, xem xt, v do , n phn nh vo trong gi, c tc,
li nhun v m hnh giao dch.
Nh u t c th u t vo mt TCPH khi phn tch c bn v phn tch k thut cng
a ra kt lun chung v xu hng bin ng ca gi v ca TTCK.

Phn tch thng tin ti chnh

Hot ng th trng chng khon Vit Nam trong thi gian ti s ngy cng si ng
v thu ht nhiu ngi tham gia, t nhng nh u t chuyn nghip cho n ngi dn
bnh thng. Lm th no phn tch cc thng tin ti chnh c c a ra nhng
quyt nh mua bn chng khon ng n l vn dang c nhiu ngi quan tm.
TSKTSG xin gii thiu lot bi "Phn tch thng tin ti chnh" vi mc ch gii thiu
nhng hot ng v quy lut cn bn ca th trng ti chnh.
Bi 1: Th trng chng khon - nhiu t mi.

c bt k mt bn tin no v hot ng ca th trng chng khon, ngi u t bnh

thng mun mua bn t c phiu kim li rt d lng tng truc nhng t chuyn mn
m ngi a tin c th v thy qu quen thuc nn khng gii thch.

V d khi a tin v vic cp php cho Cng ty Chng khon Thng Long, tc gi vit:
"Cng ty Thng Long c vn iu l 9 t ng, hot ng vi ba chc nng mi gii, t
vn u t chng khon v qun l danh mc u t. Trong lng lai, Thng Long d
inh xin thm chc nng lu k v ng k chng khon".
"Mi gii v t vn u t" th r nhng "qun l danh mc u t" l g ?

Mt khch hng, thng l khch hng loi ln, khng ch mua bn chng khon ca mt
cng ty. H c th mua bn rt nhiu loi c phiu, tri phiu ca loi cng ty vi mc
ch dn u ng vn gim thiu ri ro - gi l danh mc u t. Th nhng d khch
hng l c nhn hay cng ty cng u c chuyn mn nhiu theo di, lc mua lc bn
nhm lm li nhiu nht cho danh mc u t ca mnh. T mi c dch v qun l
danh mc u t.

Trong mt tin khc, ngi vit cho bit thm mt chc nng khc ca cng ty chng
khon l "t doanh". Ngi c c th thc mc, t doanh l g, khng l thnh lp cng
ty ra m khng kinh doanh hay sao m phi c thm chc nng t doanh. y l khi
nim chi vic cc cng ty chng khon mua v bn chng khon cho chnh mnh.

Th cn hai loi dch v m Thng Long sp lm l "lu k v ng k chng khon" l

g ? d nh, c th "din dch" t lu k thnh ng k lu gi, tc l dch v lu gi,
bo qun chng khon gim cho khch hng, k c vic gip khch hng thc hin cc
quyn ca h i vi chng khon. Tuy nhin, dn dn ngi mua s khng cn t tri
phiu hay c phiu c th na m chi cn ghi v s sch - t chnh thc gi l bt ton
ghi s. Dch v ghi nhn quyn s hu ca khch hng, k c cc quyn v ngha v lin
quan bng mt h thng thng tin lu gi trong cc ti khon lu k chng khon chnh
l dch v ng k chng khon.Mt bn tin khc vit, "Cc cng ty REE v Sacom s
cng b bn co bch trong vng tun ti".

Bn co bch l mt dng thng tin ca ni pht hnh chng khon, ngoi nhng phn
nh tn, a ch, qu trnh hnh thnh v pht trin ca t chc pht hnh, cn c nhng
phn nh c cu t chc b my qun l, phn tch hot ng ti chnh, kt qu hot ng
kinh doanh trong hai nm lin tc gn nht. N cn phi nu c cc khon n, cc
khon thu v mc ch s dng s tin thu c t t pht hnh. Bn ny phi c
vit lm sao gip cng chng nh gi v quyt nh mua hay khng. Nu thng tin sai
lch hay che giu s tht, ngi mua b thit hi th ni pht hnh phi n b.
c bit, bn co bch phi c dng ch, i ni U ban Chng khon Nh nc cho
pht hnh khng c ngha l U ban bo m gi tr ca chng khon pht hnh. Ngoi ra
n cn phi thng bo v tt c mi loi ri ro c kh nng lm gim gi chng khon.
Cn phn bit "bn co bch" vi "bn cn i k ton nm" v "bn bo co kt qu hot
ng kinh doanh nm".
Bn cn i k ton hay cn gi l bn cn i ti chnh l bc tranh tnh trng ti sn v
cc khon n v vn c ng ca cng ty vo mt thi im nht nh, thng l ngy
cui nm. Ngc li, bn bo co kt qu hot ng kinh doanh hay cn gi l bn bo
co li l cho bit kt qu ca cc hot ng trong khong mt thi gian thng l mt
nm.

Thm mt bn tin ni cng ty XYZ no pht hnh tri phiu chuyn i. y l loi
tri phiu sau ny c th chuyn thnh c phiu thng ca cng cng ty pht hnh. Khi
gii thiu mt cng ty cho bn c phiu ln u ra cng chng, ngi vit thung ni
vic ny s to tnh thanh khon cho c ng. Nm c phiu ca mt cng ty c phn ha
nhng khng bit bn cho ai v cha c th trng chng khon - nh vy l thiu tnh
thanh khon. Cn ngc li, kh nng chuyn i ti sn, y l chng khon, thnh
tin mt mt cch d dng, gi l c tnh thanh khon cao.

Cui cng, xin phn bit mnh gi c phiu loi c nim yt ti trung tm giao dch, theo
quy nh phi l 10.000 ng. Cc cng ty c phn ha li thng pht hnh c phiu
theo mnh gi 100.000 ng. Tri phiu th c mnh gi co dn hn nhng ti thiu l
100.000 ng hoc bi s ca 100.000 ng, ch khng c l. Khi em ra mua bn, c
phiu v tri phiu c gi khc, gi l gi th trng.

Bi 2: Tng gim, li sut.

Vi cc trang bo ti chnh, tin tng, gim li sut lun lun l tin quan trng nht. Mi
khi ngn hng trung ng tuyn b tng hay gim li sut, cc bo chuyn v kinh t u
a thnh tin trang nht, km theo nhiu bi phn tch tc ng ca n vi th trng.
Chng hn khi a tin ngn hng trung ng tng li sut, cc bn tin s a tip tin gi
tri phiu gim.

Gi th mi hm qua bn mua 100 ng tri phiu nh nc vi li sut c nh l 11%

mi nm, c ngha bn trng ch sang nm bn s c trong tay 11 ng tin li. Th
nhng hm nay sau khi li sut chung tng, c ngha ngy ny sang nm, c 11 ng,
by gi bn ch cn b ra t hn 100 ng mua tri phiu. V vy, nu c th trng
mua bn tri phiu nh nc, gi tri phiu bn mi mua hm qua s gim.

Th nhng trong thc t nu nhiu chuyn gia kinh t d bo ngn hng trung ng s
tng li sut trong thi gian ti, cc bo a tin v gi tri phiu t s st trc khi c
quyt nh tng li sut tht s.Li sut tng cng rt c th dn n thay i t gi hi
oi. ng tin c li sut tng sc mnh ln so vi cc ngoi t khc. Gi d Anh tng
li sut ng bng Anh, nhng nh u t c th ngh n chuyn u t vo y bng
cch gi tin vo ngn hng hng li sut cao hay mua tri phiu ang gim gi. H
phi i t tin mnh sang ng bng Anh u t nn rt c kh nng ng bng Anh
ln gi. V vy mi c chuyn nc ny hay nc kia tng li sut ngn chn s st
gi ca ng tin nc mnh.
Li sut tng cng c ngha chi ph vay vn u t sn xut s cao hn, li nhun cng ty
s gim v vy cc nh sn xut phi tnh ton li, khng cn mn m chuyn vay vn lm
n. V th mi c tin ngn hng trung ng mt nc tng li sut gim bt pht
trin qu nng ca nn kinh t.

Gi th bn vay tin ngn hng mua nh tr li theo thng m li sut thng th ni

theo thi k. Nay li sut tng, c ngha khon tin phi tr cho ngn hng hng thng
bng tng ln, thu nhp dnh cho chi tiu s gim. Km vi chuyn vay tin chi tiu
hay mua sm bng th tn dng u phi tr li cao hn, li sut tng nh th hm chi
tiu ton x hi s gim. Ngc li, gim li sut cng l bin php nng sc mua ca x
hi.

Trong ti chnh, c khi nim gi tr c hi ca ng tin. Chng hn bn c th gi tin

vo ngn hng hng li sut 10%/nm v hon ton yn tm sang nm 100 ng gi
hm nay ng nhin thnh 110 ng. Nu quyt nh dng 100 ng ny u t vo
chuyn khc, c ngha l bn b i gi tr c hi m n c sn. V vy, nu mua tri
phiu, c phiu hay trc tip sn xut, bn u ngh n mt gi tr tng thm cho ng
tin cao hn gi tr c hi ca n - trong trng hp ny l 10%/nm.

V th, tng li sut tc l tng mc li nhun m nh u t hay ngi tit kim n

thun ngh h phi hng t khon tin u t ca mnh.
D c ch hot ng phc tp hn, li sut tng s rt c kh nng lm gim gi cc loi
c phiu trn th trng.

Ngi mua c phiu ca cng ty mi nim yt thng trng ch c tc thp thi. Nhng
i li, h mong gi c phiu s tng trn th trng chng khon. Gi th mt ngi mua
c phiu c c tc chng 4% v gi tr c phiu tng chng 10% sau mt nm. Cng li,
ngi s hng chng 14% trn s tin b ra u t mua c phiu - cao hn li sut
gi nh 10% ni trn. Tuy nhin, khi li sut tng ko theo li sut tri phiu tng chc
chn ngi ta s trng i li nhun c c t vic mua c phiu s phi cao hn mc
14% b vo nhng ri ro ca c phiu so vi tri phiu. Trc mt gi c phiu phi
gim nng mc li nhun ny.

Vic tng gim li sut c nhiu tc ng trc tip n th trng nh th cho nn cc bn

tin ti chinh khi a tin v li sut hay kin mt chuyn gia v li sut thng a ra
nhng mi lin kt i vi h th nh chuyn 2 cng 2 l 4 nhng vi chng ta rt xa
nhau v rt kh hiu. Tng t, khi ni n nhng gii php gii quyt mt vn c
th no ca nn kinh t, h thng a ra nhng khuyn co lin quan n li sut
cng kh hiu khng km. Nhng lit k cha y trn hy vng s gip ngi c
to c mi lin kt d dng hn.

Bi 3: Chuyn g xy ra sau gi G.
Nu nh trc y, mi ngi quan tm bao gi th Vit Nam c th trng chng khon
th by gi, sau khi nh ngy chnh thc hot ng ca Trung tm Giao dch chng
khon TP. HCM l 15-7, vn ni ln l th trng chng khon Vit Nam hot ng
nh th no. Ngi dn bnh thng c t tin dnh dm mun tham gia th trng cng
mun bit lm sao mua bn chng khon.

Khc vi suy ngh ca kh nhiu ngi, th hin qua mt thm d gn y ca U ban

Chng khon Nh nc, khng c chuyn ngi u t trc tip ti trung tm b tin ra
mua c phiu hay khi cn n bn li. Tt c mi giao dch u phi qua cc cng ty
chng khon. Hin nay, c nm cng ty nh vy c cp php hot ng.
Trc tin, ngi mun chi chng khon phi m ti khon ti cc cng ty chng
khon. Cc cng ty ny thu bn giao dch ti trung tm. Mun mua hay bn, ngi ta
lin h vi cng ty chng khon ca mnh (c th trc tip hay qua in thoi, fax) ng
k yu cu mua hay bn, khi lng giao dch.
y nn lu , khch hng c th t ra nhiu dng yu cu i vi cng ty chng
khon.

H c th yu cu cng ty mua bn ty theo gi th trng hoc gii hn cho h ch c

mua hay bn theo mt mc gi no . Nhng k thut ny c quy c thnh nhiu
dng lnh khc nhau m ngi chi chng khon nn nm.
ng thi cng cn bit, mua bn tri phiu th n v giao dch l tng 10 tri phiu; cn
n v giao dch i vi c phiu v chng ch qu u t l 100 (gi mi c phiu l
10.000 ng).

Theo thng tin mi nht ca U ban Chng khon Nh nc, Trung tm Giao dch chng
khon ti TPHCM s hot ng mi tun ba ngy (th hai, th t, th su) t 8 gi sng
n 3 gi chiu. Gi m ca l gi thc hin lc 9 gi; gi ng ca l gi thc hin lc
14 gi. Trung tm p dng c hai hnh thc giao dch: khp lnh v tha thun.
Gi th bn yu cu cng ty chng khon mua cho bn 1.000 c phiu ca cng ty XYZ,
cn ng hng xm yu cu bn 1.000 c phiu ca cng ty ny. Cc lnh ny s c
cng ty chuyn vo trung tm. Hng chc, hng trm lnh nh th s c trung tm
nhn v tch t trong ba ting mi ngy (8g - 9g, 10g -11g, 13g - 14g) v da vo
trung tm s cng b gi khp lnh ba ln vo 9g, 11g v 14g theo mt s nguyn tc
nh trc; v d da vo mc gi c khi lng giao dch ln nht. Da vo gi ny, cc
thnh vin s tin hnh giao dch vi nhau.
Trong vai tr t doanh, cc cng ty chng khon cn c th lin tc cho gi mua, gi bn,
ai tha thun c th tin hnh giao dch.

Mi cng ty chng khon, nh cp s nc, va c th t mua bn chng khon

cho mnh (t doanh) va giao dch cho khch hng (mi gii). cc th trng khc, cc
chc nng ny phi tch bch nhau, nht l chc nng t vn chng khon. Nhn vin
thuc cc b phn trong cng cng ty khng c trao i vi nhau trnh tnh trng li
dng thng tin ca khch hng (t vn) m lm li cho mnh (t doanh). Vn bn php l
ca U ban Chng khon cha thy cp n chuyn ny.

Mt bn tin v chng khon c th c cu: "Lnh mua ca XYZ, mt nh u t nc

ngoi hm qua t ng b hy v trung tm thc hin ht khi lng chng khon
c php bn cho ngi nc ngoi".
Theo mt quyt nh mi nht, ngi nc ngoi mun mua bn chng khon phi ng
k m s ngi u t v hng phin, h thng giao dch s kim sot v cng b khi
lng chng khon ngi nc ngoi c php mua. Sau c ngi nc ngoi no
mua bao nhiu th tr vo khi lng ny by nhiu; cn gi th c ngi bn th s ny
c cng thm vo khi lng c php giao dch. V khp lnh din ra vo cui thi
gian nhn lnh nn nu khi lng chng khon c php mua ht th lnh mua ca
nh u t nc ngoi s t ng b hu.

C th thi gian u cha xy ra, nhng vn c th hnh dung mt tin trong c ni

chuyn gi c phiu tng qu mc gii hn dao ng cho php. Gi th c phiu ca mt
cng ty c gi ng ca hm qua l 11.000 ng (gi ny gi l gi tham chiu cho phin
giao dch sau). Hm nay, gi bng tng vt ln 11.700 ng, vt qu gi ti a, th
khng c. Ngi ta quy nh gi ti a ca c phiu bng gi tham chiu cng vi 5%.
St qu 5% cng khng c. i vi tri phiu, bin dao ng l trn di 1,5% gi
tham chiu. V vy, chng khon mi c nim yt trong ngy giao dch u tin c th
tng, st nhiu v khng b gii hn bin dao ng gi.

V mc 100 ng l n v tin t nh nht nc ta, p dng bin 5% th s c 11

mc gi. V d gi mt c phiu hm trc l 12.000 ng. Gi ti a hm nay ch c
ln ti 12.500 ng v gi ti thiu l 11.500 ng.
C l sau ngy khai trng trung tm, cc bo s bt u ng ti thng tin giao dch ca
ngy hm trc. Hnh thc trnh by ty tng bo nhng c th xem mt cch trnh by
ti th trng chng khon Thi Lan tham kho. (xem bng).

C th c dng ny nh sau: Cng ty Chiangmai Frozen c k hiu trn th trng

chng khon l CM, mnh gi c phiu l 10 baht, gi hm trc l 31,25 baht, gi m
ca l 31 baht, gi cao nht l 31 baht, gi thp nht l 30,75. baht, gi ng ca l 30,75
baht.

Gi cho bn l 31,25 baht, gi mua l 30,5 baht, gi ng ca hm nay so vi hm qua

st mt ,5 baht. Phin giao dch ny khi lng mua bn l 1.100 c phiu. Gi giao
dch bnh qun l 30,89 baht.

Cng ty ny c tng s c phiu nim yt trn th trng l 21 triu c phiu, tng vn l

645 triu baht. Hin nay ch s EPS (t sut gi trn li tc) l 7,07.

Cc h s ti chnh

Trn thc t ngi ta thng s dng mt s h s sau nh gi hiu qu sinh li ca

doanh nghip: h s tng li nhun; h s li nhun hot ng; h s li nhun rng; h
s thu nhp trn vn c phn; v h s thu nhp trn u t.
H s tng li nhun cho bit mc hiu qu khi s dng cc yu t u vo (vt t, lao
ng) trong mt quy trnh sn xut ca doanh nghip.

H s tng li nhun= (Doanh s-Tr gi hng bn tnh theo gi mua) / Doanh s bn

Trong thc t khi mun xem cc chi ph ny c cao qu hay khng l em so snh h s
tng s li nhun ca mt cng ty vi h s ca cc cng ty cng ngnh, nu h s tng
li nhun ca cc cng ty i th cnh tranh cao hn, th cng ty cn c gii php tt hn
trong vic kim sot cc chi ph u vo.

H s li nhun hot ng cho bit vic s dng hp l cc yu t trong qu trnh sn

xut kinh doanh to ra li nhun cho doanh nghip.

Mc li hot ng = Thu nhp trc thu v li ( EBIT)/doanh thu

H s ny l thc o n gin nhm xc nh n by hot ng m mt cng ty t

c trong vic thc hin hot ng kinh doanh ca mnh. H s bin li nhun hot
ng cho bit mt ng vn b ra c th thu v bao nhiu thu nhp trc thu. H s li
nhun hot ng cao c ngha l qun l chi ph c hiu qu hay c ngha l doanh thu
tng nhanh hn chi ph hot ng.

H s li nhun rng phn nh khon thu nhp rng (thu nhp sau thu) ca mt cng ty
so vi doanh thu ca n.

H s li nhun rng = Li nhun rng/Doanh thu.

Trn thc t mc li nhun rng gia cc ngnh l khc nhau, cn trong bn thn mt
ngnh th cng ty no qun l v s dng cc yu t u vo (vn, nhn lc..) tt hn th
s c h s li nhun rng cao hn.

H s thu nhp trn vn c phn (ROE) phn nh mc thu nhp rng trn vn c phn
ca c ng.

ROE= Li nhun rng/Vn c ng hay gi tr ti sn rng hu hnh.

H s ny thng c cc nh u t phn tch so snh vi cc c phiu khc nhau

trn th trng. Thng thng, h s thu nhp trn vn c phn cng cao th cc c phiu
cng hp dn, v h s ny cho thy cch nh gi kh nng sinh li v cc t sut li
nhun ca cng ty khi em so snh vi h s thu nhp trn vn c phn ca cc cng ty
khc.

H s thu nhp trn u t (ROI) c s dng xc nh mc nh hng ca bin

li nhun so vi doanh thu v tng ti sn.

ROI= (Thu nhp rng/Doanh s bn) * (Doanh s bn/Tng ti sn).

Mc ch ca vic s dng h s ROI l so snh cch thc to li nhun ca mt cng
ty v cch thc cng ty s dng ti sn to doanh thu. Nu ti sn c s dng c
hiu qu, th thu nhp v thu nhp trn u t s cao.

H s gi trn thu nhp (P/E) l mt trong nhng ch s phn tch quan trng trong quyt
nh u t chng khon ca nh u t. Thu nhp t c phiu s c nh hng quyt
nh n gi th trng ca c phiu . H s P/E o lng mi quan h gia gi th
trng (Market Price - PM) v thu nhp ca mi c phiu (Earning Per Share - EPS) v
c tnh nh sau:

P/E = PM / EPS

Trong gi th trng PM ca c phiu l gi m ti c phiu ang c mua bn

thi im hin ti; thu nhp ca mi c phiu EPS l phn li nhun rng sau thu m
cng ty chia cho cc c ng thng trong nm ti chnh gn nht. P/E cho thy gi c
phiu hin ti cao hn thu nhp t c phiu bao nhiu ln, hay nh u t phi tr gi
cho mt ng thu nhp bao nhiu. P/E c tnh cho tng c phiu mt v tnh trung bnh
cho tt c cc c phiu v h s ny thng c cng b trn bo ch.

Nu h s P/E cao th iu c ngha l ngi u t d kin tc tng c tc cao

trong tng lai; c phiu c ri ro thp nn ngi u t tho mn vi t sut vn ho th
trng thp; d on cng ty c tc tng trng trung bnh v s tr c tc cao. H s
P/E rt c ch cho vic nh gi c phiu. Gi s ngi u t c c phiu XYZ khng
c giao dch si ng trn th trng, vy c phiu c gi bao nhiu l hp l?
Chng ta ch cn nhn vo h s P/E c cng b i vi nhm cc loi c phiu tng
t vi c phiu XYZ, sau nhn thu nhp ca cng ty vi h s P/E s cho chng ta gi
ca loi c phiu XYZ.

Qun tr ri ro trong u t chng khon

Ri ro trong u t CK c nh ngha l s dao ng ca li nhun mong i, do vy

t c t l li nhun cao trong u t chng khon, vn t ra l phi qun l
c mc ri ro ny.

Ri ro l kt qu khng mong i v n lun i cng vi nhng khon u t chng

khon (CK). Ri ro trong u t CK c nh ngha l s dao ng ca li nhun mong
i, do vy t c t l li nhun cao trong u t chng khon, vn t ra l
phi qun l c mc ri ro ny.

1. Cc loi ri ro trong u t chng khon

Ri ro h thng l ri ro tc ng n ton b hoc hu ht cc CK. S bp bnh ca mi

trng kinh t ni chung nh s st gim GDP, bin ng li sut, tc lm pht thay
i... l nhng minh chng cho ri ro h thng, nhng bin i ny tc ng n s dao
ng gi c ca cc CK trn th trng.

Trong ri ro h thng trc ht phi k n ri ro th trng. Ri ro th trng xut hin

do phn ng ca cc nh u t i vi cc hin tng trn th trng. Nhng s st gim
u tin trn th trng l nguyn nhn gy s hi i vi cc nh u t v h s c gng
rt vn. Phn ng dy truyn ny lm tng s lng bn, gi c CK s ri xung thp so
vi gi tr c s.

Tip n l ri ro li sut. Gi c CK thay i do li sut th trng dao ng tht thng

gi l ri ro li sut. Gia li sut th trng v gi c CK c mi quan h t l nghch.
Khi li sut th trng tng, ngi u t c xu hng bn CK ly tin gi vo ngn
hng dn n gi CK gim v ngc li.

Ngoi h qu trc tip i vi gi CK, li sut cn nh hng gin tip n gi c phiu

(CP) thng. Khi li sut tng lm gi CP gim v cc nh u c vay mua k qu s b
nh hng. Nhiu cng ty kinh doanh CK hot ng ch yu bng vn i vay th vi mc
li sut tng cng lm cho chi ph vn tng.

Mt yu t ri ro h thng khc khng km phn quan trng l ri ro sc mua. Ri ro sc

mua l tc ng ca lm pht ti cc khon u t. Li tc thc t ca CK em li l kt
qu gia li tc danh ngha sau khi khu tr i lm pht. Nh vy, khi c tnh trng lm
pht th li tc thc th gim. Gii thch theo l thuyt hin ti ho, mt ng li tc ca
hm nay th trong tng lai khng cn gi tr mt ng do tc ng ca lm pht.

Ri ro khng h thng l ri ro ch tc ng n mt loi ti sn hoc mt nhm ti sn,

ngha l ri ro ny ch lin quan n mt loi CK c th no . Ri ro khng h thng
bao gm ri ro kinh doanh v ri ro ti chnh. Trong qu trnh kinh doanh, nh mc thc
t khng t c nh theo k hoch gi l ri ro kinh doanh, chng hn li nhun trong
nm ti chnh thp hn mc d kin.

Ri ro kinh doanh c cu thnh bi yu t bn ngoi v yu t ni ti trong cng ty.

Ri ro ni ti pht sinh trong qu trnh cng ty hot ng. Ri ro bn ngoi bao gm
nhng tc ng nm ngoi s kim sot ca cng ty lm nh hng n tnh trng hoi
ng ca cng ty nh chi ph tin vay, thu, chu k kinh doanh...

Ri ro ti chnh cng l mt loi ri ro khng h thng. Ri ro ti chnh lin quan n n

by ti chnh, hay ni cch khc lin quan n c cu n ca cng ty. S xut hin cc
khon n trong cu trc vn s to ra ngha v tr n tr li ca cng ty. Cng ty phi
thc hin ngha v tr n (gm tr n ngn hng v tr n tri phiu) trc vic thanh
ton c tc cho c ng. iu ny nh hng khng nh n gi c CP cng ty. Ri ro ti
chnh c th trnh c nu cng ty khng vay n cht no.

2. Xc nh mc b ri ro
Mt trong nhng phng php nh lng ri ro v xc nh doanh li yu cu l s dng
mc li sut khng ri ro cng vi mc b ca tng loi ri ro mt. u tin, chng ta
xc nh mc li sut khng ri ro (thng thng li sut tn phiu Kho bc c coi l
li sut khng ri ro), sau xc nh mc b ri ro cho mi th trng. Tng s ri ro
lin quan n CK bao gm ri ro h thng v ri ro khng h thng. Trong , ri ro
khng h thng c th c loi tr thng qua vic a dng ho u t, cn ri ro h
thng th khng th loi tr bng cch a dng ho.

3. Qun l ri ro

Vic quan trng nht trong qun tr ri ro l phi xy dng c quy trnh qun l ri ro.
Thng thng, qun l ri ro c chia thnh 5 bc:

Bc 1: Nhn dng ri ro

y l bc u tin nhm tm hiu cn k v bn cht ca ri ro. Cch n gin v trc

tip nht l lit k tng nhn t v cc bin c c th gy ra ri ro.

Cch lm r bn cht ca ri ro l:
- Th nht: Nhn dng nhng tc nhn kinh t c th gy ra ri ro, v d yu t li sut,
lm pht, t gi hi oi, tng trng kinh t...
- Th hai: Tm hiu xem chiu hng c th gy ra ri ro, v d vic Ngn hng Trung
ng tng li s sut tc ng n gi c CK nh th no?
- Th ba: Kim tra li xem biu hin ri ro ang phn tch c ph thuc vo bin c no
khc hay khng, chng hn cng ty c biu hin ri ro trong trng hp khng c tn
nhim ca khch hng...

Bc 2: c tnh, nh lng ri ro

Bc ny s o lng mc phn ng ca cng ty i vi cc ngun gc ri ro xc

nh trn. C th, dng mt phng php gi nh nu c nhn t ri ro th cng ty
c g v mt g.

Bc3: nh gi tc ng ca ri ro

nh gi ri ro ngi ta thng lm bi ton chi ph v li tc. i khi, vic qun l

ri ro tiu tn nhiu ngun lc ca cng ty nh tin bc v thi gian, do cn phi cn
nhc xem liu vic qun l ri ro nh vy c thc s em li li ch ln hn chi ph b ra
thc hin n hay khng.

Bc 4: nh gi nng lc ca ngi thc hin chng trnh bo him ri ro

qun l ri ro c hai chin lc:

- Th nht: Da vo mt t chc ti chnh chuyn nghip, thu h thit k mt gii php
qun l ri ro c th, thch hp vi chin lc qun l ca cng ty.
- Th hai: T cng ty ng ra thc hin phng chng ri ro bng cch s dng cc cng
c CK phi sinh nh chng quyn, chng kh, quyn chn, hp ng k hn, hp ng
tng lai... ng thi xy dng mt i ng nhn vin ca cng ty c kh nng lp v
thc hin hng ro chng ri ro. Vn ny i hi nhn vin cng ty va phi thit k
ng li va phi thc hin tt chng trnh phng chng ri ro bi qun l ri ro cn
phi c theo di thng xuyn v iu chnh kp thi vi s bin i ca thi gian.

Bc 5: La chn cng c v qun l ri ro thch hp

y l bc mu cht cui cng trong vic xy dng chin lc qun l rui ro. Trong
bc ny nh qun l phi chn mt gii php c th. Chng hn, i vi cc cng c
trn th trng hi oi, ngi ta c th s dng hp ng tng lai, hp ng quyn
chn, swap... lm cng c phng chng ri ro, cng c ny c u im l c tnh thanh
khoan cao v c hiu qu v gi. Tuy nhin, cng c ny khng linh ng, khng khc
phc c ri ro c hu m chi ph theo di li kh tn km.

Tm hiu ch s P/E

P/E l mt ch s c cc nh u t s dng rt ph bin trong phn tch ti chnh. Tt

nhin t l ny cng c nhng hn ch nht nh (chng ta s cp trong phn sau)
nhng n c u im l d tnh v d hiu. Nu bn mun bit th trng sn sng tr bao
nhiu cho mi la li nhun ca mt cng ty, chng ta hy xem xt P/E.

P/E l mt t l phn trm gia th gi mt c phiu v thu nhp trn mt c phhiu. Nu

gi mt c phiu cu IBM l 60 la v thu nhp ca mi c phiu l 3 la th t l P/E
s l 20 (60/3). iu ny c ngha l nh u t sn sng tr 20 la cho mi la li
nhun ca cng ty. Nu P/E gim xung cn18 c ngha l nh u t ch tr 18 la cho
mi la li nhun.

P/E truyn thng- tc l t l P/E m bn vn thy hng ngy trn cc tp ch chng

khon- cn gi l P/E hin ti. tnh ch s ny ngi ta ly gi c phiu chia cho li
tc c phiu ca 12 thng gn nht.

Bn cnh cc nh u t cn s dng t l P/E tng lai bng cch ly gi c phiu

chia cho li tc c phiu ca nm sau do Ph Wall c tnh.

Ch s no tt hn? T l P/E truyn thng c u im l n phn nh tnh hnh thc t

ca doanh nghip v mu s ( E) l con s thc t c kim ton v bo co cho U
ban chng khon v hi oi. Tuy nhin, nhc im ca n l li nhun ny chc chn
s thay i trong tng lai. Do , bng cch c tnh li nhun trong tng lai, ch s
P/E tng lai d on c mc tng trng ca doanh nghip. Mc d con s c tnh ny
c th khng chnh xc, t nht n cng gip cc nh u t c c s tham kho ra
quyt nh u t.
Gi s bn c c phiu ca 2 cng ty hot ng trong cng mt ngnh - v d Exxon v
Texaco - cng c t l P/E l 20. Gi c phiu ca Exon l 60 la v thu nhp l 3 la
trong khi gi c phiu ca Texaco l 80 la v thu nhp l 4 la. Dng nh 2 quyt
nh u t ny l nh nhau nu bn khng xem xt ti t l P/E tng lai.

Ph Wall c tnh thu nhp ca Exon s tng ti 3,75 la mt c phiu (tc 25%) cn c
phiu ca Texaco ch tng ti 4,25 la( 6%). Trong trng hp ch s P/E tng lai
ca Exon gim xung cn 16 trong khi ch s P/E tng lai ca Texaco l 18,8. Nu
d on ny l ng th hin nhin mua c phiu ca Exxon s c li hn.

Nhc im ln nht ca c 2 ch s ny l i khi cc cng ty che giu thu nhp ca h

bng cch cng b li nhiu hn thc t. Mt k ton vin c th a ra nhng con s
khng v khai tng t l tng trng thu nhp ln mt vi im

Mt thc t na l thu nhp c tnh c th thay i tu theo tnh hnh pht trin ca cng
ty v tu theo mi nh phn tch Ph Wall. V vy, mc d c cc nh u t s dng
ph bin nhng t l P/E cng ch l mt ch s tham kho m thi.

nh gi t l ROE

Lm th no nh u t nh gi c kh nng sinh li ca ng vn s hu c ng
c th thy c mt ng vn to kh nng bao nhiu ng li v t l sinh li ca n
quyt nh u t cng ty X ny m khng u t vo cng ty Y khc c cng ngnh
ngh?

Chng ta tm hiu ch s EPS, c lin quan mt thit n vic xc nh kh nng sinh

li ca cng ty trn mt c phn m nh u t mua vo. Ch s ny cha phn nh mt
cch chnh xc kh nng sinh li t ton b vn s hu c ng m vn ny ngoi vn
gp c ng di dng c phn cn bao gm c th l li nhun li cc qu pht trin
kinh doanh, chnh lch pht hnh... Phn nh kh chnh xc cc kh nng chnh l
ROE (return on equity) tr gi biu th bng t l phn trm (%).

Tr gi ROE c tnh bng cch ly li nhun rng (net income) theo nin k ton (t
1 thng 1 n 31 thng 12) sau khi tr c tc cho c phn u i nhn c tc nhng
trc khi chi tr c tc cho c phn thng chia cho ton b vn s hu ch, tc ti sn
rng (xin xem bi ch s NAV l g?) vo lc u nin k ton.

Ch s ny l thc o chnh xc nht bn nh gi mt ng vn ca c ng b ra v

tch lu c (c th li nhun li) to ra bao nhiu ng li. T nh u t c c
s tham kho khi quyt nh mua cng ty X hay cng ty Y c cng ngnh ngh vi nhau.

T l ROE cng cao chng t cng ty s dng hiu qu ng vn ca c ng, iu ny

c ngha cng ty cn i mt cch hi ho gia ng vn c ng vi ng vn vay (v
nu vay nhiu th phi tr li vay lm gim li nhun) khai thc li th cnh tranh ca
mnh trn th trng tng doanh thu, tng li nhun.

T l ny gip cho nh u t nh gi cng ty gc nh sau:

* Khi cng ty ch t t l ROE tng ng vi li vay ngn hng (khong 10%/nm)

th mc nh gi tng i, bn hy xem li kh nng sinh li ca cng ty ny v
nu cng ty no cng ch sinh li mc ny th s khng c cng ty no i vay ngn
hng v li nhun t vn vay ch tr li vay ngn hng. Tt nhin y ch t
trng hp cng ty cha vay ngn hng.

* Khi cng ty t t l ROE cao hn li vay ngn hng th bn nn tm hiu xem cng ty
vay ngn hng v khai thc ht li th cnh tranh trn th trng cha c th nh
gi cng ty c tim nng tng t l ny hay khng trong tng lai. Nu cn m rng c
th phn th cn thm vn, vn ny c th vay v cng ty vn c th c li sau khi tr li
cho khong vn vay ny.

Tuy nhin, vay vn ngoi vic tr li cn phi tr gc cho nn nh hng rt nhiu n

yu t thanh khon cng ty, v vy cn i vn vay v vn c ng cng l bi ton qun
l ca cng ty.

* Ngoi ra, t l ny cng gip cho nh u t nh gi cc cng ty trong cng mt ngnh

ngh ra quyt nh la chn u t mt trong s cc cng ty c cng ngnh ngh ,
phng thc la chn tt nhin vn l t l ROE cao, v nh ni trn th ROE ca
cng ty cng cao th c kh nng tng li th cnh tranh cng mnh, khi li th cnh
tranh ca cc cng ty khc s b gim xung.

Phn tch ch s Yield u t chng khon

Ch s Current Yield (T sut thu nhp trn thi gi c phn) l mt cng c gip nh u
t t quyt nh cho mnh nn chn u t vo doanh nghip no?...

Ch s Current Yield (Hay ngi ta thng gi l Yield) l g? y l ch s dng

phn nh mi quan h gia c tc nh u t nhn c t cng ty vi gi c phiu m
nh u t mua vo n l t l c tc m c ng nhn c trn gi chng khon m c
ng mua vo

- Phn tch mi quan h gia c tc nh u t nhn c t cng ty v gi nh u t

mua c phiu, chng ta thy c hai trng hp sau y

+ Trng hp 1: Nu nh u t mua chng khon xong ri ch chng khon ln gi

hng chnh lch gi l li vn (capital gain) th nh u t s khng quan tm g nhiu
n Yield. Lc ny Yield khng c ngh g thc s quan trng vi h so vi cc ch s
P/E, EPS nh cp trong bi trc

Trong trng hp ny, cc nh u t phn tch mi quan h gia Yield v EPS. Nu

Yield thp, p cao th h hy vng cng ty s dng phn li nhun ti u t tng li
nhun cho cc nm tip theo gip P/E gim. Lc ny h d dng bn li c phiu vi P/E
cao c li vn

+ Trng hp 2: Nu nh u t mua chng khon u t lu di (nh mua lm

ca) th tt nhin h s quan tm ti vic thu li nhun hng nm, hng qu. Lc ny ch
c c tc h thu c. Khi Yield l mc tiu chnh h quan tm.

Khi cng ty chia c tc cao c ngh l khng cn s dng li nhun li c th do: cng
ty s dng vn vay cng ty cha c k hoch m rng sn xut hoc th phn cng ty
bo ho. Khi li nhun khng c d on tng nhiu trong nm ti ng ngha P/E
khng gim nhiu dn n vic cc nh u t khng hy vng s tng gi c phiu ca
mnh trong tng lai.

Thng thng li nhun thu c t c tc cng ty tr thp hn nhiu so vi li nhun

thu c t vic bn c phiu. V d nh cng ty C in lnh (REE) t ngy c phn
ho n nay c tc nh u t nhn c ch l 283% trn mnh gi c phn (mt trm
ngn ng) trong kh tng gi c phiu l 1350% c ngha tng 4,7 ln. Do vy i vi
cc nh u t chng khon trn th trng th iu quan tm duy nht ca h ch l li
vn c ngha trong i hi c ng hng nm quyt nh chia c tc th h thng b
phiu khng chia c tc nhiu.

Ni tm li khi u t bn nn tm hiu v nh gi ht cc loi ch s phn tch c

mt ci nhn tng th hn mi quan h ca cc ch s ny ra quyt nh u t cho
chnh xc. K sau chng ti s gip bn i su phn tch thm cc mi quan h gia ti
sn cng ty v ti sn c ng bn khng nhm ln gia ci b th bn ngoi v ci
bn cht ti sn tht bn trong ca cng ty.

Ch s NAV (Net Asset value) l g?

Ch s NAV c lin quan mt thit n vic xc nh gi tr ti sn cng ty v ti sn c

ng. T nh u t s khng b nhm ln gia ci b th bn ngoi v ci bn cht
tai sn tht bn trong ca cng ty.

Thng thng ngun vn cng ty cu thnh chnh bi ngun vn s hu ca c ng v

ngun vn vay. Cc ngun vn nay to cho cng ty cc ti sn nh: my mc thit b, nh
xng... v cc ti sn lu ng khcphc v cho hot ng kinh doanh hng ngy ca
cng ty. Do c lc cng ty c vn c ng (hay gi l vn iu l) thp nh ti sn th
hin bn ngoi ln th cha chc l ti sn hnh thnh t vn c ng ng gp m c
th mt phn t vn vay. Ngun vn s hu ca c ng c gi l Gi tr ti sn thun
ca cng ty, gi tr ny chnh l chnh l ch s NAV (Net Asset Value).

Gi tr ti sn thun NAV bao gm: Vn c ng (vn iu l) vn hnh thnh t li

nhun li. Vn chnh lch do pht hnh c phiu ra cng chng cao hn mnh gi
(Share Premlum) l trong hot ng kinh doanh v cc qu d tr pht trin d phng.

Ngi ta thng s dng ch s NAV/Share (gi tr thun ca mi c phiu pht hnh)

nh gi tr c phiu trn s sch v gi c phiu mua vo ch s ny c tnh bng cch
ly tng gi tr vn s hu (tng ti sn tr cho bt c ti sn v hnh no tr tt c n v
chng khon tri phiu c quyn i u tin) chia cho tng s c phn pht hnh.

Ch s ny gip cho nh u t dnh gi cng ty khi u t mt s kha cnh nh sau:

- Gi s cng ty c phn mnh gi l 100.000 ng m NAV l 120.000 chng hn th c

ngha l cng ty tch lu vn sn xut c th t ngun li nhun li pht hnh
chnh lch... Nh vy nh u t mua c phn vi gi 120.000 ng th h vn mua ng
vi gi tr tht trn s sch ca n.

- Nu NAV l 120.000 ng nhng li nhun cng ty t c cao th nh u t cng c

th mua c phiu vi gi cao hn NAV mong li nhun gia tng khi s c chia c
tc c tch lu v NAV s tip tc tng na trong thi gian ti.

- Nu NAV l 120.000 ng nhng cng ty vn ang l c ngha s tip tc gim NAV

th bn c quyt mua vi 120.000 ng hay cao hn khng. y l quyt nh kh khn
v ri ro nht n ph thuc nhiu vo vic nh gi phn tch ca nh u t v cng ty
nhiu kha cnh thng tin chnh xc v cng ty tng lai quyt nh. y ch c mt
nguyn tc n gin m nh u t chp nhn u t l "li nhun cao th ri ro cao".

Ni tm li NAV l thc o bo th nht nh u t quyt nh mua c phiu ca

cng ty theo gi tr thc ca cng ty. Trong thc t iu ch trng nht vn l vn "li
nhun" lun c t ln hng u v l c s chnh nh gi kh nng sinh li ca
vic s dng ng vn ca cng ty.

Xc nh gi tr c phiu bng chit khu dng c tc

Xc nh gi tr ni ti c phiu l mt vn rt phc tp v phi mt nhiu thi gian

nghin cu c th hiu ng v p dng mt cch hiu qu trong u t.

Trong bi vit ny tc gi mun gii thiu nhng vn cn bn ca phng php xc

nh gi tr ni ti (Intinsic value) c phiu theo chit khu dng c tc (Dividend
Discount Model-DDM), mt phng php ph bin trn th gii trong vic xc nh gi
tr c phiu. Trc tin chng ta s tho lun mt s khi nim c bn lin quan.
1. Li v ri ro

ti a ha gi c phiu, cc gim c ti chnh cng nh nh u t cn hiu v xc

nh c hai yu t c bn: li (return) v ri ro (risk).

Li ca mt khon u t trong mt khong thi gian c tnh bi tng s tin c

phn phi trong k cng vi cc khon tng gi tr trong k, tt c chia cho gi tr u t
u k. V d: Cng ty Hoana mun xc nh li ca c phiu REE m Cng ty mua 1
nm trc vi gi 38.000 ng v gi hin ti l 82.000 ng. Trong k, Cng ty nhn
c c tc (sau thu) l 1.400 ng. T l li u t c phiu REE trong nm l bao
nhiu?

K = (1.400 + (82.000 - 38.000))/38.000 = 119%

Ri ro l kh nng sy ra vic l ti chnh hay chnh thng hn l s bin ng ca cc

khon li l gn lin vi mt ti sn. V d, mt tri phiu chnh ph 1 triu ng, m
bo cho ngi s hu n mt khon li 80.000 ng sau 1 nm m coi nh khng c ri
ro, v khng c s bin ng ca khon li. Mt khon u t c phiu thng 1 triu
ng, trong cng khong thi gian nh trn c th kim c khon li bin ng t 0
n 200.000 ng, n rt ri ro, v s bin ng ln ca li ca c phiu. Mt khon li t
ti sn gn chc chn hn, t c s bin ng hn v do vy ri ro t hn.

o lng ri ro: lch chun (Standard deviation) l ch s thng k ph bin ch

mc ri ro ca mt ti sn; n o lng s phn tn xung quanh gi tr mong mun
(expected value), gi tr li ca ti sn m n c kh nng xy ra ln nht.

2. Phng php nh gi ti sn vn theo li v ri ro/The Capital Asset Pricing Model

(CAPM)

C bn ca thuyt ny l mi lin h gia ri ro v li cho tt c cc ti sn. Phng trnh

c bn ca CAPM l:

Ks = Rf + [bs x (Km-Rf)]

Trong :

+ Ks= T l li yu cu trn ti sn s;
+ Rf = T l li khng c ri ro (risk- free of interest): thng c ly bng t l li tri
phiu chnh ph ngn hn 3 thng;
+ Rf = K* + IP = T l li sut thc + T l lm pht c tnh;
Nu t l lm pht c tnh nm 2006 ca ng Vit Nam l 6%, t l li sut thc l 2%
th t l li khng c ri ro l Rf = 2% + 6% = 8%.
+ bs = H s ri ro beta: Thc o lin quan n ri ro m khng th trit tiu t vic a
dng ha u t. Mt ch s ch mc thay i li ca mt ti sn trc s thay i li
th trng. Nu li ca mt c phiu bng mt na so vi li th trng, th bs = 0,5. N
c tnh s thay i bng 0,5 % ca 1% thay i trong li ca danh mc th trng. Nu
mt c phiu c 2 ln thay i so vi th trng (b =2) s mong i 2% thay i li ca
n cho 1% thay i li ca danh mc th trng. H s ri ro beta ca qu kh cho cc c
phiu c th tnh c bng khoa hc thng k. cc nc thng c cc ti liu cng
b cng khai v h s bs ny. Lu rng, h s ri ro qu kh c th khng ng cho
tng lai.
+ Km = Li th trng (Market return) l li trn ton b cc chng khon c lu hnh;
+ Km-Rf = T l thng ri ro (Risk Premium) l phn thng m nh u t phi nhn
c cho vic chp nhn ri ro bnh qun lin quan n cc danh mc ti sn u t ca
th trng.

Theo Stocks,Bonds, Bills & Inflation, 2001 year book (Chicago: Ibboston Associates Inc.,
2001, li, lch chun v t l thng ri ro ca cc khon u t chng khon t 1926-
2000 trn TTCK NewYork nh sau: (Xem bng 1)

V d: Cng ty X mun xc nh t l li yu cu trn ti sn, c phiu HAS m chng c

h s beta, ch s ri ro ti sn l bh =1,2. T l li khng ri ro l Rf = 8% (= 2%+6%);
Li ca cc c phiu trn th trng l Km = 15%. Thay vo cng thc trn ta c:

Kh = Rf + [bh x (Km-Rf)] = 8% + [1,2 x (15%-8%)] = 8% +8,4% =16,4%

Nhng thay i trong vic khng mun ri ro (Risk aversion): nh u t khng mun ri
ro (kinh t, chnh tr, x hi), h yu cu tng li khi cc ri ro tng ln.

Nhng thay i trong d on lm pht: gi s hin nay do gi xng du tng mnh, lm

pht tng thm 2% so vi d on ban u l 6%. Kt qu tt yu l tt c cc t l li
cng tng tng ng 2%. Trong trng hp , Rf1 = 10% (tng t 8% ln 10%), Km1 =
17% (tng t 15% ln 17%) Thay vo cng thc trn ta c:

Kh1 = 10% + [1,2 x (17%-10%)] = 10% + 8,4% = 18,4%

So snh Kh = 16,4% v Kh1 = 18,4%, ta thy s thay i 2% trong li yu cu ca ti sn

Kh ng bng thay i trong t l lm pht 2%.

3. Phng php chit khu dng c tc (Dividend Discount Model)

Gi tr c phiu thng l gi tr hin ti (present value) ca tt c cc dng tin c tc

tng lai m n hy vng c cung cp trong ton b thi gian tng lai v hn nh ca
n. Mc d nh u t c th kim li bng vic bn c phiu vi gi cao hn gi mua
ban u, nh u t thc s bn ci g? l bn quyn i vi cc khon c tc trong
tng lai. Vi cc c phiu m n khng hy vng c tr c tc trong tng lai thy
trc c, nhng c phiu ny c gi tr i vi cc c tc trong tng lai xa t kt qu
ca vic bn cng ty hay thanh l cc ti sn ca n. Do vy t gc xc nh gi tr,
ch c cc khon c tc l lin quan. Phng trnh c bn xc nh gi tr c phiu l:
(Bng 2)
Trong :
+ P: gi tr c phiu thng;
+ Dt: c tc mi c phiu hy vng nhn c cui nm t;
+ Ks: t l li yu cu trn c phiu thng (xem cch tnh phn 2 - CAPM);
+ Dn /(1+Ks)n l gi tr hin ti ca c tc nhn c cui nm th n. V d D1/(1+Ks) 1
l gi tr hin ti ca c tc s nhn c cui nm th 1 vi t l chit khu l ks%.

Ti sao phi chit khu gi tr tng lai v gi tr hin ti? Bi nguyn tc gi tr thi gian
ca ng tin. Tin ra tin, mt ng tin nhn c ngy hm nay c gi tr hn mt
ng tin nhn c ngay mai.

Theo phng php nh gi ny, yu cu d on tt c cc khon c tc trong tng lai.

C ba loi c bn t l tng trng c tc: khng tng, tng c nh v tng thay i.
n gin, chng ta xem m hnh c tc tng c nh hng nm.

M hnh tng c nh (Constant-Growth Model) cn thng c gi l Gordon Model:

(Xem bng 3)

Trong :
+ D1 l c tc tr vo cui nm th 1. D1 = D0 x (1+ g);
+ Ks: t l li yu cu trn c phiu thng (xem cch tnh phn 2 - CAPM);
+ g: t l tng trng c nh hng nm ca c tc mi c phiu;

Vic xc nh ng t l g l iu khng n gin, v l s c tnh cho tng lai. Rt

nhiu cng ty tr c tc hng nm c nh bng 12-18% mnh gi, cho d cng ty c li
ln hn rt nhiu ln c tc v sau khi li lu gi ln, cng ty thng c phiu.
Trong nhng trng hp nh vy t l tng trng c tc c tnh nh th no?

n gin, chng ta gi thit rng, t l c tc trn EPS (li trn mi c phiu) hng
nm l khng i, do vy t l tng trng c tc bng t l tng trng EPS. Nguyn tc
chung l cc c phiu thng bt c thi im no trong nm hin ti s c coi nh t
u nm v n s cng iu chnh tng cho cc nm qu kh tnh EPS v do vy c
th so snh EPS gia cc nm vi nhau.

V d: Gi s ta c cc s liu ca c phiu HAS nh bng di. Thng 6/2006, Cng

ty pht hnh c phiu thng theo t l 4 c phiu hin hu c thng 1 c phiu.
T l tng trng EPS ca HAS l bao nhiu? (Xem bng 4)

Nh vy t l tng trng EPS bnh qun trong 4 nm va qua ca HAS l 13%/nm.

Nu c tnh t l tng trng c tc n nh hng nm ca HAS bng t l tng trng
EPS l 13%/ nm trong cc nm tip theo. C tc nm va qua l 1.500 /CP, t l li
yu cu trn c phiu HAS l 16,4%, do vy gi tr ni ti ca c phiu HAS s l:

Phas = D1/(Ke - g) = 1.500(1+0,13)/(0,164 - 0,13 ) = 49.852 ng/CP

Nu t l li trn vn ch s hu (ROE) tng, EPS tng, t l g tng, do vy hiu s (ke-
g) gim, lm cho gi tr c phiu tng. Ngc li nu hiu s (ke-g) tng, gi tr c phiu
gim.

Da vo cc s liu t cc bo co ti chnh ca cc cng ty v nhn nh v cc yu t

lin quan, tc gi a ra bng tnh gi tr ni ti ca mt s cng ty ln nh sau: (Xem
bng 5)

Vi cng mt cng thc nh trn, nhng mi ngi s c nhn nh khc nhau v cc con
s D1, Ke v g v do vy s ra cc kt qu tnh gi tr ni ti c phiu khc nhau. Ngi
mua cho rng, gi th trng thp hn gi tr ni ti, h mua vo. Ngc li, ngi bn
cho rng, gi th trng cao hn gi tr ni ti c phiu, do vy h bn ra. Mi khi c
nhng thng tin mi, m n trc tip hay gin tip nh hng n mt trong ba yu t ni
trn, th gi tr ni ti ca c phiu cng s thay i. Gi s cc ch s khc khng i,
nu t l tng trng g ca STB t 12,5% (nh bng trn) xung cn 12%, 11% v
10%/nm th gi tr ni ti ca chng ch cn tng ng l 52.267 ng; 38.850 ng v
30.800 ng/CP. Bn s thy s bin ng khng khip ca (P) nu t l tng trng (g)
gim. Thng th t l tng trng c tc mi c phiu kh c th t c t l 12-
13%/nm cho sut c i tn ti ca mt cng ty. Tuy nhin, rt nhiu nh phn tch
thng dng t l tng trng c tnh cho 5 nm ti.

Khi no nn bn ra c phiu?

Thi gian gn y, nhng c phiu c xem l an ton nht, c tc tng trng n

nh nht trn th trng chng khon nh Intel, Procter & Gamble hay IBM lin
tc mt gi lm ngi ta phi t cu hi:Vy th c loi c phiu no an ton
khng?. Cu tr li c l l khng tn ti mt loi c phiu no thc s an ton. iu ct
yu l cc nh u t cn nhn bit c thi im thch hp bn ra c phiu

Trong tr chi chng khon, nhiu nh u t mt c ch ln chi ch v b qua

thi im nn bn ra c phiu, ri khi gi c phiu st gim th mun bn cng khng
th no bn c. Lc , c phiu ny khng khc no nhng t giy ln. Tht ra, l
mt bi hc b ch cho nhiu nh u t. Trong iu kin cc c phiu an ton khng
cn na, m thay vo l cc c phiu ri ro, thnh cng hay tht bi lc ny ty
thuc vo s suy on v phn tch ca cc nh u t. Vy phi x l tnh hung ny
nh th no?

Vic xc nh thi im tt nht bn ra c phiu c xem l kh kh khn i vi cc

nh u t, cho d l nhng nh u t nghip d hay Soros hoc John Neff . Bt k
nh u t chng khon no cng mong mun u t vo nhng cng ty m c phiu c
kh nng sinh li cao, gi c phiu c xu hng tng mnh, hoc t nht cng phi n
nh.
Tuy nhin, s tht khng bao gi nh vy, gi cc c phiu trn th trng chng khon
lin tc bin ng, cc ch s quan trng cng ln xung tht thng, lc qu cao, lc li
qu thp khin cc nh u t lun trong trng thi bt an. Nhng thnh cng trong u
t chng khon lun i hi cc nh u t phi nm vng kin thc v chng khon,
cng nh c kinh nghim trong u t tm hiu r c phiu mnh ang gi c n nh
khng v liu khi th trng chng khon tt dc th n b nh hng xu khng. c
bit, cc nh u t cn bit r lc no khng nn nm gi c phiu na.

Sau y l mt s du hiu gip nh u t trn th trng chng khon c th nhn bit

c thi im no nn bn ra c phiu.

1. C cu t chc iu hnh cng ty c s xo trn

Nu nhng nh qun l cp cao, nhng ngi chu trch nhim v s thnh cng ca
doanh nghip, bt u ri b cng ty th c th xem l du hiu bt li cho tng lai
ca cng ty. Khi , cc nh u t cn phi theo di v pht hin xem ti sao li c
nhng thay i nh vy. Nu pht hin ra nhng du hiu cho thy cng ty ang tr nn
suy yu trong lnh vc kinh doanh chnh, th tt nht nn bn c phiu ca cng ty i
v thay vo l tm mua c phiu ca cng ty khc trong cng lnh vc nhng mnh
hn v c ban iu hnh n nh hn.

2. Li nhun v c tc gim st

Trong trng hp ny, cc nh u t nn iu tra cn thn trc khi quyt nh c nn

bn c phiu hay khng. Nu l do ban qun tr cng ty quyt nh khng chia c tc
tp trung vn cho vic pht trin v m rng quy m cng ty, th li l iu tt v c
phiu s tng gi trong tng lai. Nhng thng thng th s st gim v li nhun v c
tc l du hiu xu cho thy tng lai ca cng ty gp nhiu kh khn, khi a s nh
mi gii u khuyn khch hng bn c phiu i.

Cc cng ty nim yt c xu hng chi tr c tc kh cao (trn 10%/nm) nn nhiu nh

u t cho rng y l du hiu tt tip tc nm gi c phiu, nhng khng nn coi
y l cn c duy nht quyt nh mua hay bn chng khon. C tc ch th hin
nhng kt qu trong qu kh, khng c g bo m vic s tip din trong tng lai.
Aiko Musaki, mt nh u t c nhn ang cng tc ti b phn c phiu v th trng
chng khon ca hng in t Matsushita, cho bit: Theo ti, cc nh u t chng
khon ch nn nm gi c phiu ca nhng cng ty c c tc cao v n nh, vi iu
kin cng ty c k hoch s dng vn pht trin ng hng.

3. Th gi c phiu ln hn nhiu ln so vi gi tr thc

Thomas Calvin, mt nh u t chin lc ca cng ty chng khon Lufkin & Jenrette,

cho rng: Nhng tranh ci v gi c phiu ca cc cng ty nim yt u ch mang tnh
mt chiu, iu quan trng l bn thn nh u t phi t mnh xc nh c gi tr thc
ca chng. Hy cn trng vi nhng c phiu c th gi cao vt. Bong bng c phiu c
th v bt c lc no. ng l c mt s nh u t d bit rng c phiu ca mnh
vt qu gi tr thc hng chc ln nhng h vn cha bn i v mun tr hon vic chu
thu thu nhp cng nh hy vng gi s cn tng na. Tuy nhin, nu cm thy th gi
vt qua gi tr thc cht ca c phiu nhiu ln th nn bn c phiu i, bi v nu gi li
nhng c phiu ny bn s phi chu ri ro rt cao v ch c th tr hon vic chu thu
ch khng th khng np thu. Ngoi ra, khi bn ra c phiu ny th s c c hi u t
vo c phiu khc a dng ha danh mc v gim thiu ri ro u t ca mnh.

4. Khng cn l do la chn c phiu

C th l do cc nh u t quyt nh mua c phiu ca Merck l bi cng ty ny

cng b mt lot cc pht minh ra nhng loi thuc mi c hiu qu cao. t nhin, mt
thi gian sau ngi ta pht hin ra mt trong s cc loi thuc ca Merck c nhng tc
dng ph bt li cho sc khe. Th l th phn ca cng ty b st gim v li nhun ca
cng ty trong tng lai cng s st gim. Khi , cc nh u t nn bn c phiu ca
Merck i v c phiu ny khng cn tnh hp dn, cng nh khng cn nhng l do ban
u la chn c phiu na.

Mi nh u t trc nhng quyt nh u c cc phn tch, tnh ton k lng tm ra

cc l do mua c phiu. Tuy nhin, thi gian tri qua, nu nhng l do khng cn ph
hp na, mc d gi c phiu vn n nh th cc nh u t cng nn bn c phiu i,
bi s n nh ny ch l nht thi v tim n mt tt dc trong tng lai.

5. S hi lng i vi danh mc u t hin ti khng cn na

C th trong danh mc u t s c cc c phiu khng ph hp vi cc mc tiu ti

chnh t ra trc (mua sm ti sn, chun b cho k hoch ngh hu...), khi tt nht
nn bn cc c phiu ang c i v t chc li danh mc u t mi ph hp hn vi
mong mun ca mnh.

Mt danh mc u t a dng s t ri ro hn mt danh mc u t tp trung vo mt hay

mt t loi u t. a dng ho - ngha l dn tri tin ca bn ra cc loi u t khc
nhau - lm gim ri ro, bi v nu mt s khon u t ca bn i xung th s khc li i
ln. Hy lm tnh ton mt cch n gin: nu bn mun nm gi s lng c phiu tr
gi 100.000 USD, bn nn nm gi nm loi c phiu, mi loi tr gi 20.000 USD. Bn
khng nn c gng nm gi mt s lng c phiu nht nh no , bn hy u t mt
s tin nh cho mi loi c phiu.

Cch y khng lu, Warren Buffet, mt cy i th trong gii u t ph Wall, tng

ni: u t chng khon l hnh thc kinh doanh i hi s nhanh nhy v c phn on
cao. Qu tht, khi tham gia vo th trng ny, ngoi vic phi nm bt y nhng
thng tin t th trng, nh u t cn cn c kh nng phn tch v d bo trin vng
pht trin ca cng ty, cng nh phi thc s tnh to nm bt c s thay i nhanh
nhy ca bt c thng tin no c lin quan n giao dch trn th trng, t kp thi
bit c lc no nn bn ra c phiu.
Cc nh u t ang ngy cng tr nn tinh thng hn nhng khng v th m cc ri ro
trong u t chng khon s gim bt. Trong mt bi pht biu ca mnh, John Markese,
ch tch Hip hi cc nh u t c nhn ca M ni: Cht lng, tnh thi im v
su rng ca thng tin trn th trng chng khon t ti mc cha tng c, nhng
n vn khng cho php bn d on chnh xc c tng lai. Hy tnh to, phn tch k
th trng t ra c nhng quyt nh cn thit v hp l.

Phng php tnh ch s gi c phiu

Nm 1999, UBCKNN c mt ti nghin cu khoa hc cp b mang tn: C s khoa

hc v thc tin xy dng ch s gi chng khon v mt s gi cho Vit Nam. ti
c hi ng khoa hc do TS.L Vn Chu Ch tch UBCKNN lm ch tch Hi
ng nghim thu, nh gi hon thnh mc xut sc. Trong bi vit nh ny chng
ti ch xin gii thiu mt phn ca cng trnh nghin cu khoa hc trn, l cc phng
php tnh ch s gi c phiu v vic vn dng n nc ta hin nay, nht l trong giai
on u ca s pht trin th trng chng khon.

Mc tiu c bn ca vic xy dng ch s gi ni chung l xy dng h thng ch tiu

phn nh s bin ng ca gi theo thi gian. Ch s gi c phiu cng vy n l ch tiu
phn nh s thay i ca gi c phiu theo thi gian.

tng xuyn sut trong qu trnh xy dng ch s gi l phi c nh phn lng, loi
b mi yu t nh hng v gi tr kho st s thay i ca ring gi. C nh vy ch
s gi mi phn nh ng s bin ng v gi. Mi cng thc, phng php khng thc
hin c tng ny u sai vi l lun v chc chn ch s gi khng phn nh ng
s bin ng ca gi.

thc hin c mc tiu v tng trn, c 3 vn cn gii quyt trong qu trnh

xy dng ch s gi c phiu, l:
- Chn phng php
- Chn r i din
- Tm bin php tr kh cc yu t v gi tr m bo ch s gi ch phn nh s
bin ng ca ring gi.

1- Phng php tnh

Hin nay cc nc trn th gii dng 5 phng php tnh ch s gi c phiu, l:

Phng php Passcher:

y l loi ch s gi c phiu thng dng nht v n l ch s gi bnh qun gia quyn

gi tr vi quyn s l s lng chng khon nim yt thi k tnh ton. Kt qu tnh
s ph thuc vo c cu quyn s thi k tnh ton:
Ngi ta dng cng thc sau tnh.

qt pt
I p = -------------
qt po

Trong : Ip : L ch s gi Passcher
pt : L gi thi k t
po : L gi thi k gc
qt : L khi lng (quyn s) thi im tnh ton ( t )
hoc c cu ca khi lng thi im tnh ton.
i L c phiu i tham gia tnh ch s gi
n l s lng c phiu a vo tnh ch s

Ch s gi bnh qun Passcher l ch s gi bnh qun gia quyn gi tr ly quyn s l

quyn s thi k tnh ton, v vy kt qu tnh s ph thuc vo c cu quyn s (c cu
chng khon nim yt) thi tnh ton.
Cc ch s KOSPI (Hn quc); S&P500(M); FT-SE 100 (Anh) ; TOPIX (Nht) ; CAC
(Php); TSE (i loan); Hangseng (Hng cng); cc ch s ca Thu S,.. v VnIndex
ca Vit Nam p dng phng php ny.

Phng php Laspeyres.

Ch s gi bnh qun Laspeyres l ch s gi bnh qun gia quyn gi tr, ly

quyn s l s c phiu nim yt thi k gc. Nh vy kt qu tnh s ph thuc vo c
cu quyn s thi k gc:

qo pt
I l = -------------
qo po

Trong : IL : L ch s gi bnh qun Laspeyres

pt : L gi thi k bo co
po : L gi thi k gc
qo : L khi lng (quyn s) thi k gc hoc c cu
ca khi lng c (s lng c phiu nim yt) thi k gc
i L c phiu i tham gia tnh ch s gi
n l s lng c phiu a vo tnh ch s

C t nc p dng phng php ny, l ch s FAZ, DAX ca c

Ch s gi bnh qun Fisher

Ch s gi bnh qun Fisher l ch s gi bnh qun nhn gia ch s gi

Passcher v ch s gi Laspayres: Phng php ny trung ho c yu im ca hai
phng php trn, tc l gi tr ch s tnh ton ra ph thuc vo quyn s ca c 2 thi
k: K gc v k tnh ton

IF = IP x I L

Trong : I F : L ch s gi Fisher
IP : L ch s gi Passche
I L : L ch s gi bnh qun Laspeyres
V mt l lun c phng php ny, nhng trong thng k chng ti khng thy
n p dng bt k mt quc gi no.

Phng php s bnh qun gin n:

Ngoi cc phng php trn, phng php tnh gi bnh qun gin n cng thng c
p dng. Cng thc n gin l ly tng th gi ca chng khon chia cho s chng
khon tham gia tnh ton:
pi
Ip = -------------
n
Trong : I p l gi bnh qun;
Pi l gi Chng khon i;
n l s lng chng khon a vo tnh ton.

Cc ch s h Dow Jone ca M; Nikkei 225 ca Nht; MBI ca p dng phng php

ny. Phng php ny s tt khi mc gi ca cc c phiu tham gia nim yt kh ng
u, hay lch chun (s ) ca n thp.

Phng php bnh qun nhn gin n

I p = P Pi

Chng ta ch nn dng loi ch s ny khi lch chun kh cao, ( s) cao. Cc ch

s: Value line (M); FT-30 (Anh) p dng phng php bnh qun nhn gin n ny.
Tuy nhin v mt l lun, chng ta c th tnh theo phng php bnh qun cng hoc
bnh qun nhn gia quyn vi quyn s l s chng khon nim yt.
Quyn s thng c dng trong tnh ton ch s gi c phiu l s chng khon nim
yt. Ring i Loan th h dng s chng khon trong lu thng lm quyn s, bi v
t l u t ca cng chng rt cao y (80 .. 90%).

2. Chn r i din.

Mt nhim v th hai quan trng trong vic xy dng ch s gi chng khon l vic
chn r i din. S giao dch chng khon New york c trn 3000 c phiu nim yt,
nhng ch s tng hp Dow Jone ch bao gm 65 c phiu. Trong ch s Dow Jones
cng nghip (DJIA) ch bao gm 30 c phiu, Dow Jones vn ti (DJTA) bao gm 20 c
phiu v Dow Jones dch v (DJUA) bao gm ch 15 c phiu. Tuy ch bao gm mt s
lng c phiu nim yt rt nh nh vy trong tng th nhng cc ch s Dow Jones vn
trng tn qua nm thng, v n phn nh c xu th, ng thi ca qu trnh vn ng
ca gi c. R i din ny l tiu biu, i din c cho tng th v h thng xuyn
thay nhng c phiu khng cn tiu biu na bng c phiu tiu biu hn. V d thng
11/1999 h thay 4 c phiu trong r i din, cng ty IBM cng c lc phi loi khi
r i din khi th trng PC ni chung pht trin v ln t.

Ba tiu thc quan trng xc nh s tiu biu ca c phiu chn vo r

i din l s lng c phiu nim yt, gi tr nim yt v t l giao dch, mua bn
chng khon trn th trng (khi lng v gi tr giao dch).
i vi Vit Nam, hay bt k th trng no khi mi ra i, s lng cc c phiu nim
yt cha nhiu, th r i din nn bao gm tt c cc c phiu. Tuy nhin cng nn ch
n khi lng v gi tr giao dch. Nu mt c phiu no trong mt thi gian di
khng c giao dch hoc giao dch khng ng k th nn tm loi khi phm vi tnh ton.
C nh vy ch s chng ta tnh ra mi phn nh c ng thi vn ng thc s ca gi
c th trng.

3. Vn tr kh nh hng ca cc yu t thay i v khi lng v gi tr

trong qu trnh tnh ton ch s gi c phiu

Trong qu trnh tnh ton mt s nhn t lm thay i v khi lng v gi tr ca cc c

phiu trong r i din s nh hng n tnh lin tc ca ch s. V d nh phm vi, ni
dung tnh ton ca ngy bo co khng ng nht vi ngy trc v lm cho vic so
snh b khp khing, ch s gi tnh ra khng phn nh ng s bin ng ca ring gi.
Cc yu t l: Thm, bt c phiu khi r i din, thay c phiu trong r i din;
nhp, tch c phiu; thng c phn, thng tin, tng vn bng cch pht hnh c phiu
mi; bn chng quyn; c phiu trong r i din b gim gi trong nhng ngy giao dch
khng c c tc...

tr kh nh hng ca cc yu t thay i v khi lng v gi tr trong qu

trnh tnh ton ch s gi c phiu, lm cho ch s gi c phiu thc s phn nh
ng s bin ng ca ring gi c phiu m thi ngi ta dng k thut iu chnh
h s chia. y l mt c th ring ca vic xy dng ch s gi chng khon.

hiu bn cht ca k thut ny, chng ta hy xem xt mt v d n gin sau: Ch s

tnh theo phng php bnh qun gin n (phng php Dow Jones). Gi 3 c phiu
hnh thnh nh sau:

C phiu Gi ngy giao dch 1 Gi ngy giao dch 2 Gi ngy giao dch 3
A 17 19 19
B 13 13 13
C 15 16 8

Tng gi 45 48 30
DJA ngy 1 l 45/3 =15 (ngn ng, hay im)
DJA ngy 2 l 48/3 = 16 (ngn ng, hay im), tng 1 im hay 6.7%
Ngy th 3 c phiu C tch lm hai v gi coi nh khng c g thay i (c phiu C gim
cn 8 khng coi l gim gi, m ch v c phiu tch i).

V nguyn tc nu gi khng c g thay i, th ch s vn gi nguyn. Ta khng th ly

tng mi chia cho 3: 30/3=10 kt lun ch s gi gim 5 ngn (im) c. V thc
cht gi khng h thay i . Bi vy ch s gi mi tnh ra phi bng 15 nh ngy 2. y
l ct li ca k thut tnh ton li h s chia. K thut ht sc n gin: p dng quy tc
tam sut m chng ta hc t lp 4
C th l:
48 == ====> H s chia l 3 (Do)
30 =======> H s chia l D1
T y suy ra D1 =(30 x 3)/48 = 1.875 v DJA ngy th 3 l 30/1.875 = 16 khng c g
thay i. Ch s ny phn nh ng ng thi ca gi (khng i). Trong thc t gi
thng c thay i nn ch s s c giao ng. Nhng khi tnh li h s chia ngi ta lun
gi nh gi khng i. Tc l h s chia ca ngy giao dch c xc nh trc khi xy
ra giao dch.
Chng ta cng c th tham kho thm v d sau v phng php tnh ch s gi
gia quyn gi tr Passcher m nc ta ang p dng, cng thc tnh nh sau:

qt pt qt pt

I p = ------------- => --------------

qt po Dt

Chng Khi lng Gi ng ca Gi ng ca ngy Gi ng ca ngy

khon nim yt 21/7 31/7 2/8
A 1000 10 12 13
B 2000 15 16 17
C 5000 18 20

- Ch s gi ngy giao dch u tin l 100% (im)

= 100x(1000x10+2000x15)/(1000x10+2000x15) = SQoPo/Do =100
Phi nhn vi 100 bi v chng ta quy c ngy u l 100 im
Do = 1000x10+2000x15 = 40000
- Ch s gi ngy 31/7 l 110 % (im) tng 10% hay 10 im
= 100x (1000x12 + 2000x16)/ (1000x10+2000x15) = SP 1 Q1/D1 =110
Trong trng hp ny Do =D1 = 40000 v ngy ny c phiu C cha c tham
gia vo vic tnh ch s gi (v mi c gi ban u cha c thay i). Do ch s gi ca
ngy 31/7 ch l ch s gi tng hp ca 2 c phiu A v B m thi.

- Ch s gi ngy 2/8 l 120,67 im tng 10,67 im, phng php tnh nh sau:

= 100x(13x1000+17x2000+20x5000)/ D2 = SP2Q2/D2 = 120,67 tng 10,67 im

Tnh D2 nh sau:

( 12x1000 + 16x2000) ==> H s chia l (10x1000+ 15x2000)

( 12x1000 + 16x2000 +18x5000) ==> H s chia l D2

T :
(10x1000+ 15x2000)x( 12x1000 + 16x2000 +18x5000)
D2 = --------------------------------------------------------------------= 121818,1818
( 12x1000 + 16x2000)

H s chia thay i t 40 000 (Do v D1) thnh 121 818,1818 (D2)

Trong 2 phin giao dch ngy 21 v 31 h s chia khng c g thay i v u chia cho
gc, v vy ch s thc s l tnh theo % so vi gc v v th hai ngy ny chng ta c
th gi l im hay % cng ng. n phin giao dch 2/8 th iu ny khng ng na,
bi v ta i h s chia v v vy kt qu tnh ton ln ny ch c th gi l im.

Gi tham chiu ca c phiu trong nhng ngy c bit

Trong qu trnh theo di v tham gia th trng, thnh thong ngi u t nhn thy
Trung tm Giao dch Chng khon Thnh ph H Ch Minh (TTGDCK Tp. HCM) khng
ly gi ng ca ca mt c phiu no trong phin giao dch trc lm gi tham
chiu cho c phiu ny trong ngy giao dch tip theo nh thng l. l trng hp
nhng phin giao dch ngi u t giao dch khng c nhn c tc bng tin, khng
c nhn thng bng tin, ngy giao dch khng c hng quyn mua c phiu mi
trong t pht hnh thm c phiu tng vn hay trong ngy giao dch khng c
hng phn pht thng bng c phiu, ngy khng c hng c tc bng c phiu
hoc t hp no ca cc yu t trn.

im qua mt s thng tin lin quan, chng ta thy vic pht hnh thm c phiu
huy ng thm vn pht trin sn xut ca Cng ty c phn (CtyCP) giy Hi phng
(Haphaco). Cng ty ny pht hnh tng vn ln gp i, t hn 10 t ln hn 20 t
xy dng mt dy chuyn sn xut giy Craft. V c mi c phiu s hu nhn c mt
quyn mua mt c phiu trong t pht hnh mi. Ti y xut hin nhu cu v nh
gi chng khon phi sinh l quyn mua c phiu v lm c s nh gi bn c phiu
cho ngi c quyn. Trong thi gian , gi c phiu Haphaco ang mc cao trn 60-
70 ngn ng/c phiu v th trng ang c xu hng suy gim. Cng ty Haphaco
xc nh gi bn cho ngi c quyn l 50, sau l 40 v cui cng l 32 ngn ng/c
phiu trong t pht hnh mi khi gi c phiu ny trn th trng gim xung trn di
50 ngn ng. V trn thc t xut hin ngy giao dch khng hng quyn mua c
phiu ny v TTGDCK Tp. HCM iu chnh gi tham chiu.

Ngoi ra, i vi nhng cng ty nim yt (CtyNY) khc, c mt s cng ty pht

hnh thm c phiu thng hay c phiu dng tr c tc nh CtyCP Xut nhp
khu Bnh Thnh, CtyCP Giao nhn kho vn ngoi thng, CtyCP nc gii kht Si
gn, CtyCP cp v vt liu vin thngV vy, vic nh gi tham chiu ca c phiu
trong ngy giao dch khng c thng, khng hng c tc bng c phiu cng c
TTGDCK Tp. HCM tnh ton v thng bo...

V d, nh Cng ty Haphaco pht c tc nm 2004 t 1 l 12% tng ng vi

1200/1 c phn v cng b pht c tc t 2 nm 2004 bng c phiu vi t l 100 c
phiu c c nhn 12 c phiu mi ( tt nhin l sau khi c php ca y ban Chng
khon Nh nc (UBCKNN)). CtyCP Xut nhp khu Khnh Hi (KHA) cng c
php ca UBCKNN pht hnh thm c phiu tng vn di hnh thc thng c
phiu, tng vn iu l t 20,9 t ln gp ri, tc l pht hnh thm thm 1.045.000 c
phiu vi tr gi 10,450 t ng. Ngy cui cng c ng ng k quyn mua c phiu
ny l ngy 15/10/2004. Ngy 18/10/2004 TTGDCK Tp. HCM c cng vn s
734/TTGDCK-LK gi cc thnh vin hng dn vic chuyn nhng quyn mua c
phiu mi ca c ng CtyCP Xut nhp khu Khnh Hi. Theo , vic chuyn nhng
quyn mua c phiu mi ca cng ty ny ch xy ra duy nht 1 ln i vi mi c nhn, t
chc c quyn mua c phiu t ngy 28/10 n ngy 17/11/2004. Vic chuyn nhng
quyn c th c thc hin mt phn hay ton b s quyn v chuyn nhng cng c
th cho mt hay nhiu khch hng. Tuy nhin, ngi i mua s khng c bn quyn k
c quyn ca ring mnh v quyn va mi mua. Chng ta li thy y do TTCK phi
sinh cha c t chc nn vic mua, bn quyn b bin php hnh chnh thu hp. CtyCP
C in lnh (Ree) cng c UBCKNN cho php pht hnh ti a 1.462.500 c
phiu tr c tc nm 2004. Tuy nhin, khi lng pht hnh cng ph thuc vo lng
vn cng ty ny dnh tr c tc. Cng ty cng c php trn nguyn tc v pht
hnh thm 1.125.000 c phiu thng t nay cho n nm 2008. C phiu u i
chuyn i ca cng ty (chuyn i thnh c phiu thng) cng s n hn chuyn i
vo nm 2009. Nhu cu nh gi tham chiu ca c phiu ny trong ngy khng hng
quyn cng xut hin.

Cng ty Gemadept tr c tc t 1 nm 2004 l 12% v cng b s tr c tc ln

hai ca nm ny bng c phiu (h cng c php ca UBCKNN) vi t l 20:1. C
ngha l, c ng c c 20 c phiu c (k c c phiu tr chm) s c pht thm 1 c
phiu t ngun vn chia c tc nm 2004. Cng ty Haphaco c php ca UBCKNN
chia c tc t hai bng c phiu (1200/c phiu), vi gi c tnh theo mnh gi
l10.000/c phiu, tc l c ng c 100 c phiu s c nhn thm 12 c phiu, ng
thi thng c phiu cho c ng tng vn vi t l 2:1, tc l c hai c phiu c c
nhn thm 1 c phiu mi. Ngy giao dch khng hng quyn l ngy 6/12/2004.

l gii v gi tham chiu ca c phiu trong nhng ngy c bit trn, chng
ti xin gii thiu mt s kt qu ca cng trnh nghin cu lin quan n vn
ny[1][1].

1) Gi tham chiu (Ptc) ca c phiu trong ngy giao dch khng hng c tc c
tnh theo cng thc:

Ptc = Gi ng ca phin giao dch trc gi tr c tc

Gi tham chiu ca c phiu trong ngy giao dch khng hng c tc ng bng gi
ng ca ca c phiu ny trong phin trc tr i gi tr c tc.

2) Gi tham chiu ca c phiu (Ptc) trong ngy giao dch khng hng phn chia
li bng tin

Ptc = Gi ng ca phin giao dch trc gi tr tin thng

Gi tham chiu ca c phiu trong ngy giao dch khng hng phn thng bng tin
ng bng gi ng ca ca c phiu ny trong phin trc tr i gi tr tin thng.

3) Gi tham chiu ca c phiu trong trng hp pht hnh thm c phiu tng
vn

Trong trng hp ny gi tham chiu ca c phiu ngy khng hng quyn

mua c phiu mi (Ptc) c tnh theo cng thc:

PR t-1 + (I x PR )
Ptc = ------------------------
1+ I

Trong : Ptc : l gi tham chiu c phiu trong ngy giao dch khng hng quyn
mua c phiu trong t pht hnh mi tng vn, y l gi cn xc nh
PRt-1 : l gi chng khon phin trc phin giao dch khng hng quyn.
I : l t l vn tng
PR : l gi c phiu s bn cho ngi nm gi quyn mua c phiu trong t pht
hnh mi.

V d: Gi s ta mun tnh gi tham chiu ca c phiu Haphaco vo ngy khng

hng quyn mua c phiu mi trong t pht hnh thm c phiu ln u huy ng
vn u t xy dng Nh my giy Craft. Thng tin chng ta c c nh sau: Tng vn
huy ng mi l 20 t ng (tng vn Haphaco trc lc pht hnh quyn mua c phiu
l 10 t ng). Tc l mi c phiu c c mua thm 2 c phiu mi. Gi tham chiu
ca c phiu ny vo phin trc phin giao dch khng hng quyn l 50.000ng/c
phiu (PRt-1). T l vn tng l gp 2 ln vn hin c ( I=2). Gi c phiu s bn cho c
ng ghi trong quyn l 32.000ng/c phiu (PR).

5 0000 + 2 x 32000
Ptc = ----------------------------- = 38 000 ng
1+ 2

Nh vy, gi tham chiu c phiu trong phin giao dch khng hng quyn l
38.000 ng. Trong khi gi bn theo quyn ca c phiu (hay gi n nh) l 32. 000
ng.
Trong trng hp ny gi ca quyn mua i vi mi c phiu l :
38.000 ng - 32.000 ng = 6.000 ng.

Trong thc t, khi c mt c phiu ta c hai quyn mua c phiu mi v tng gi

tr quyn cho vic s hu mt c phiu c l 12.000 ng
y l thng tin ht sc quan trng trong qu trnh giao dch quyn mua c phiu ny.
Bi ton ny c gp kh thng xuyn trong qu trnh vn hnh ca TTCK. Bi
v, vic pht hnh thm c phiu huy ng vn u t pht trin sn xut l mc ch
quan trng nht ca TTCK v cc doanh nghip s tranh th ti a ngun vn huy ng
bng phng php ny.

4) Gi tham chiu ca c phiu trong ngy giao dch khng hng phn chia li, hay
pht thng bng c phiu

Thc tin TTCK Vit nam hin nay cho thy, rt nhiu doanh nghip nim yt mun
thc hin vic chia c tc, chia li bng c phiu. Thc cht y l t pht hnh mi v
bn cho c ng hin hu. Quyn mua c phiu tim n trong hot ng ny v coi nh
ngi c quyn dng lun tin thng hay c tc mua c phiu mi. Thc cht, hot
ng chia li, chia c tc v hot ng pht hnh thm c phiu cng xy ra cng mt
lc.

V d: CtyCP Xut nhp khu Khnh Hi (KHA) c php ca UBCKNN pht hnh
thm c phiu tng vn di hnh thc thng c phiu, tng vn iu l t 20,9 t
ng ln gp ri, tc l pht hnh thm 1.045.000 c phiu vi tr gi 10,450 t ng.
Ngy cui cng c ng ng k quyn mua c phiu l ngy 15/10/2004 (Th 6).
Ngy giao dch khng hng quyn l ngy Th 4 ngy 13/10. Cu hi y l, gi tham
chiu ca c phiu ny ti ngy 13/10 ny l bao nhiu? Gi tr ca quyn bng bao
nhiu? Bit rng gi c phiu ngy 12/10 ca KHA l 25.500ng.

Trong trng hp ny, cng mt lc c 2 s kin xy ra: KHA pht thng v

pht hnh thm c phiu tng vn. Mc thng l 5.000ng /c phiu; Pht hnh
tng thm 50% vn v gi tnh cho ngi c quyn (c ng hin hu) vi gi
10.000ng /c phiu. Chng ta dng cng thc sau:

PR t-1 + (I x PR )-TTH
Ptc = ------------------------------
1+ I

Trong : Ptc : l gi tham chiu c phiu trong ngy giao dch khng
hng quyn nhn thng bng c phiu
PRt-1 : l gi chng khon phin trc phin khng hng quyn nhn
thng bng c phiu. (25.500)
I : l t l vn tng: 50%=0,5
PR : l gi c phiu s tnh ton cho ngi c quyn nhn thng bng
tin (10.000)
TTH : Gi tr tin thng bng c phiu (5.000 ng)
 Thay s vo ta c:
25.500 + (0.5x 10.000 ) 5.000
P tc (ngy 13/10) = ------------------------------------- = 17.000 ng
1+ 0.5

Tc l, nu ngy 13/10 gi c phiu KHA hnh thnh l 17.000 ng/c phiu th c

coi l khng c bin ng gi, khng c tc ng n Vn-Index. Vic gim gi t 25.500
ng /c phiu xung 17.000 ng/c phiu ch l s bin ng v gi tr, ch khng phi
l bin ng v gi.

Gi ca quyn y l 17.000ng - 10.000ng = 7.000ng

5) Gi tham chiu ca c phiu trong ngy giao dch khng hng phn chia li v
ng thi chia c tc bng c phiu

V d : Cng ty Haphaco c php ca UBCKNN chia c tc t hai bng c phiu

(1.200/c phiu), vi gi c tnh theo mnh gi l10.000ng/c phiu, tc l c ng
c 100 c phiu s c nhn thm 12 c phiu, ng thi thng c phiu cho c ng
tng vn vi t l 2 :1, tc l c hai c phiu c c nhn thm 1 c phiu mi. Ngy
giao dch khng hng quyn l ngy 6/12/04. Chng ta hy tnh gi tham chiu ca c
phiu ny vo ngy 6/12/04 theo cng thc :

Cng thc ca chng ta :

PR t-1 + (I x PR )-TTH- Div

Ptc (ng y 6/12) = -------------------------------------
1+ I

Trong : Ptc (ngy 6/12) : l gi tham chiu c phiu trong ngy giao dich khng
hng quyn nhn thng v nhn c tc bng c phiu
PRt-1 : l gi chng khon trc khi pht hnh chng quyn.
(Gi vo ngy 3/12/2004 l 39.300 ng)
I : l t l vn tng: 50%+12%= 62%= 0,62
PR : l gi c phiu s bn cho ngi c quyn hng c tc v tin
thng bng c phiu (=10.000 ng)
TTH: gi tr tin thng (=5.000 ng)
Div: l gi tr c tc (= 1.200 ng)

39.300 + (0.62x 10.000 ) 5.000-1.200

P tc ngy 6/12 = -------------------- -------- -------------- = 24.259 ng
1+ 0.62

Trong trng hp ny gi tr quyn nhn c tc v tin thng bng c phiu l:

24.259- 1.0000 = 14.259 ng.
Tuy nhin, trong thc t TTGDCK Tp. HCM quy nh gi tham chiu ca Haphaco
phin giao dch u tin khng hng quyn (ngy 6/12/04) l 25.000 (cao hn gi tr
thc hn 700 ng). L ra phi thng bo gi tham chiu ca Haphaco vo ngy 6/12/04 -
Phin giao dch 931 l 24.300 ng thay v 25.000 ng.

y l thng tin quan trng i vi ngi u t h c c s giao dch c phiu

trong nhng phin trc ngy 6/12 v ngay ngy 6/12

Vic gim gi ca Haphaco t 39.300 ng vo phin giao dch 930 xung 24.300 ng
vo phin th 931 khng coi l gim gi v khng tnh vo Vn-Index, v y l khon
gim gi tr ca c phiu ch khng phi gim gi.

6) Tng qut ha

Nu tt c cc yu t k trn cng xy ra mt lc th ta tnh gi tham chiu ra sao. V d

cng mt lc c cc s kin nh sau xy ra :
- Cng ty c pht hnh thm chng quyn tng vn
- Cng ty c mt phn tin thng bng tin mt.
- Cng ty c chia mt phn c tc bng tin mt
- Cng ty c mt phn tin thng bng c phiu.
- Cng ty c chia mt phn c tc bng c phiu.
ng thi gi c phiu tnh cho chng quyn, quyn nhn thng bng c phiu,
quyn nhn c tc bng c phiu khc nhau. Cu hi t ra l vo ngy giao dch khng
hng cc quyn trn gi tham chiu ca c phiu tnh ra sao? Thc t y l bi ton
tng hp ca tt c cc bi ton trn. Chng ta hy dng cng thc tng qut sau:

PR t-1 + (I1 x Pr1 ) + (I2 x Pr2 ) + (I3 x Pr3 ) TTHcp- Divcp- TTHt -Divt
Ptc = --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--
1+ I1 + I2 + I3
Trong :

Ptc : Gi tham chiu trong ngy khng hng cc quyn trn

I1 : T l vn tng theo pht hnh quyn mua c phiu
I2 : T l vn tng do pht thng bng c phiu
I3 : T l vn tng do pht c tc bng c phiu
TTHcp : Gi tr tin thng bng c phiu
Divcp : Gi tr c tc bng c phiu
TTHt : Gi tr tin thng bng tin
Divt : Gi tr c tc bng tin
P r1 : Gi c phiu bn cho ngi c quyn mua c phiu
P r2 : Gi c phiu tnh cho ngi c thng bng c phiu
P r2 : Gi c phiu tnh cho ngi c nhn c tc bng c phiu
Trong thc t, chng ta c th dng cng thc tng qut ny tnh ton cho tt c cc
trng hp. i vi nhng nhn t khng xy ra ta nh s 0. y l kt qu nghin cu
c kh nng ng dng thc tin kh cao, mong cc nh u t tham gia gp , bn lun
thm.

Vic iu chnh gi tham chiu theo nhng yu t k trn l nhng bin ng v gi tr c

phiu (phi c loi b trong qu trnh tnh ton Vn-Index), khng nh hng n ch s
gi Vn-Index. Trong mt s trng hp, mt s ngi khng hiu v phng php tnh
Vn-Index nn gii thch vic gim Vn-Index l do ngy pht c tc, ngy pht hnh
thm c phiu, ngy pht thng bng tin, bng c phiu... y ch l sai lm trong cch
nhn bit v lin quan n mt s kin thc c bn v chng khon v TTCK.
------------------------------------------------------
[1][1] nh gi cc cng c phi sinh v mt s gi p dng vo th trng chng
khon Vit nam do TS. Tn Tch Qu UBCKNN lm Ch nhim ti.

La chn c phiu theo nguyn tc CAN SLIM

William J. ONeil l mt mu nh u t chng khon thnh cng ti M. Khi nghip

bng ngh k ton vin, ng nhanh chng b cun vo cn st c phiu trn th trng
chng khon, ri vi nhng cng thc u t ca ring mnh, ng tr thnh mt nh
ph thu ti Wall Street khi thu v hng triu USD li nhun mi nm t c phiu.
Hin William l ch tch kim gim c iu hnh hng nghin cu u t William J.
ONeil & Company do chnh ng thnh lp.

300 USD l khon tin u tin William rt vo th trng chng khon vi c phiu
ca Procter & Gamble khi cn phc v trong Khng lc hong gia. C trong tay tm bng
c nhn ti chnh ca i hc Southern Methodist, William khi ng s nghip u t
ca mnh trn cng v mt nh mi gii chng khon ti Los Angeles. Bit kinh nghim
cn t i, William dnh rt nhiu thi gian nghin cu v thnh cng ca cc bc
tin bi trn th trng chng khon. V ri, n lc ca ng c n p. William
nghin cu v c kt c 7 yu t cn thit nhn dng nhng c phiu hin cn t
c gii u t ch nhng li chnh l nhng ti sn sinh li ln trong tng lai. By
yu t c bit n vi ci tn CAN SLIM.

William tm s: Trn th trng chng khon c n hng chc nghn c phiu nim yt
nn nhiu nh u t i khi rt lng tng trong vic la chn i tng u t. Vn
quan trng i vi h l chn mt gi vng, ngha l phi tm ra mt s loi c phiu
thc s c kh nng sinh li u t.

Nhn nh ca William hon ton ph hp vi mt thc t hin nay l rt nhiu nh u

t khng bit cc cng ty c nim yt c phiu trn th trng chng khon ang hot
ng nh th no v u t vo c phiu ca cc cng ty no s c li? Di tc ng ca
hiu ng m ng, h bt chc nhau, cng x i mua nhng c phiu ang tng
gi. Nhiu ngi mua c phiu ri m vn cha c trong tay nhng ti liu v phng
php cn thit tm hiu v mc sinh li ca c phiu .

L cha ca phng php phn tch v la chn c phiu hiu qu CAN SLIM, William
J. ONeil mang li tc tng trng bnh qun 40%/nm cho cc ti khon u t c
nhn c ng t vn. Nhiu chuyn gia nh gi y l mt trong nhng phng php
hiu qu nht trong v vn cc cng c phn tch chng khon hin nay. CAN SLIM th
hin s kt hp hi ho gia phng php phn tch c bn vi phng php phn tch k
thut u t chng khon- John Neff, mt cy i th ca ph Wall, cho bit.

CAN SLIM l tp hp by ch ci u tin ca by yu t m theo William l rt hiu

qu khi nh gi c phiu:

C: Current Quaterly Earnings Per Share (li rng trn mi c phiu ca qu gn nht)

William nhn nh rng, hu ht cc c phiu tt u c s gia tng li nhun so vi cng

qu nm trc v t l tng cng cao th chng t c phiu cng c nhiu trin vng.
Theo ng, cc nh u t trc khi b tin ra mua c phiu cn xem xt ti s gia tng
mnh m li nhun ca c phiu , c th l mc tng trng ca li rng trn mi c
phiu trong 3 thng gn nht.

Nhng phi tm hiu s gia tng li nhun ny u v nh th no? William cho rng
nh u t c th nghin cu cc bo co ti chnh c kim ton ca cng ty nim yt,
cng vi vic thm d cc cc knh thng tin khc nh bo ch, ngi quen... iu quan
trng l cc nh u t cn coi trng tin cy v tnh ng nht ca thng tin, chng hn
c th c iu g khng ng, nu doanh thu ca cng ty tng 20%, trong khi li rng
ch tng 5%.

A: Annual Earnings Increases (s gia tng li rng hng nm)

Theo ONeil, c phiu tt l c phiu c mc gia tng li nhun u n trong vng 5 nm

trc . Cc nh u t cn c bit lu ti cc c phiu c mc gia tng li nhun
hng nm n nh v t trn 25%, tuy nhin nn ch ti chu k kinh doanh ca tng
ngnh, tng cng ty. Theo ONeil, tiu ch ny c th gip bn loi b khong 80% cc c
phiu ti.

c c s chnh xc v mc gia tng li nhun, nh u t cn nghin cu tt c cc

thng tin lin quan n cng ty m h mun u t. Cc thng tin ny bao gm lch s v
c im ca cng ty, tnh hnh ti chnh, cc chi tit ca t pht hnh c phiu v t
chc bo lnh pht hnh c phiu. Nh u t c th tm cc thng tin ny trong Bn
thng co pht hnh, trong Bo co ti chnh ca cng ty hoc t cc cng ty dch v t
vn u t. Cc quyt nh u t ch nn a ra khi bn c c s thng tin v c
phiu cng nh v mc tng trng li rng hng nm.

N: New Products, New Management, New Highs (sn phm mi, s qun l mi, mc
gi trn mi)
Nhng nghin cu ca William ch ra rng gi c phiu tng s bt ngun t mt s nhn
t ni ti no . Nhng nhn t ny thng l sn phm mi ca cng ty, ban gim c
mi, phng thc qun l mi hay mc gi trn mi ca c phiu trn th trng chng
khon.

Do vy, s khng bao gi tha nu cc nh u t quan tm n nhng nhn t ni ti

ny. Nu xt thy nhng nhn t ny c s n nh, khng c biu hin t bin theo
chiu hng xu, th s l mt c phiu c nhiu trin vng tng trng trn th trng
chng khon.

S: Supply and Demand (ngun cung v cu)

Trong kinh doanh, quy lut cung cu lun c nh hng rt ln n gi thnh sn phm,
v u t chng khon cng khng phi l mt ngoi l. Gi c phiu cng chu tc ng
t quy lut cung cu. William cho rng c phiu ca cc cng ty i chng, c quy m
ln, sn phm cht lng khng phi lc no cng ng mua, bi lng cu ca nhng
c phiu ny kh ln, trong khi ngun cung li t nn gi thng b y ln cao gi to,
khng phn nh ng gi tr thc t ca c phiu cng nh rt kh sinh li nhun ln.

Chnh nhng c phiu c s lng lu hnh thp trn th trng mi c nhiu trin vng
v c kh nng tng gi hn so vi cc c phiu c s lng lu hnh ln. T suy ra,
c phiu c cc nh qun tr hng u nm gi vi t l ln thng l nhng c phiu
c an ton cao. William c bit lu ti cc c phiu c cng ty mua li v c
phiu ca cc cng ty c t l n di hn trn vn t c va phi, bi theo ng th t l
ny cng cao bao nhiu cng ty s cng phi ng u vi p lc tr li trong tng lai
nhiu by nhiu. Cc nh u t nn so snh t s ny cng ty mnh d nh u t vi
t s n bnh qun cc cng ty trong cng ngnh, ng thi phn tch thm kh nng
thanh ton c nh gi xc thc hn v mc n ca cng ty.

L: Leader and Laggard (c phiu u bng v c phiu tt hu)

Theo ONeil, nh u t trn th trng ch nn mua 2 hay 3 c phiu tt nht trong nhm
nhng c phiu u bng hin ti, cn li nn dnh tin cho nhng c phiu c kh nng
sinh li trong tng lai. c bit, cc nh u t cn trnh mua nhng c phiu c mc
tng trng cao nhng khng bn vng, chng hn nh c phiu ln gi theo tro lu,
theo s kin ni bt bi v cc c phiu ny c nh gi l nhng c phiu tt hu,
khng sm th mun cng mt gi.

I: Institutional Sponsorship (s ng h ca cc nh ch ti chnh v u t)

nh ch ti chnh u t y thng l cc c quan chc nng, cc c quan chnh ph

chuyn v ti chnh u t. Cc c quan ny c th nm gi mt s lng c phiu nht
nh ca cc cng ty no , nh vy m cng ty s c s ng h v tr gip mnh m t
nhng c quan ny, mt iu kin v cng thun li cho hot ng kinh doanh, khin gi
c phiu tng mnh. Tuy nhin, mt s lng qu ln cc nh ch ti chnh u t nm
gi c phiu li tr thnh yu t bt li, v iu ng ngha vi vic ngun cung s hn
ch bi cc c quan t khi mun bn tng phn c phiu ca mnh, y tnh thanh khon
ca c phiu xung thp.

M: Market Direction (nh hng th trng)

Cho d bn hon ton chnh xc khi nhn nh v c 6 tiu ch k trn, nhng n tiu ch
nh hng th trng bn mc phi sai lm th s c n 5 trong s 7 c phiu bn mua
s mt gi v khin bn thua l. Yu t th trng l rt quan trng bi n nh hng
mnh m n gi c phiu. Khi hng lot cc c phiu cng ngnh trn th trng b mt
gi, th gi c phiu ca cng ty m bn la chn chc chn cng s st gim theo. Ngc
li, nu gi c phiu ca cc cng ty ny tng theo s pht trin ca th trng th c
phiu bn mua vo cng c n theo nhng ch s tch cc . Do , William nhn
mnh n tm quan trng ca vic nghin cu cc th bin ng gi chng khon theo
ngy, theo tun v theo thng trc mi quyt nh u t c phiu.

Mt trong nhng thnh cng ln nht ca William l u t vo c phiu ca hng dc

phm Syntex. y l hnh ng to bo v liu lnh, theo nh gi ca cc nh u t
chuyn nghip lc by gi, bi Syntex l hng sn xut thuc trnh thai u tin trn th
gii. Nhng ri kt qu chng minh quyt nh ca William l ng. Ch mt thi gian
ngn sau , Syntex cng b doanh thu hng qu tng trng trn 300% v c phiu
ca Syntex t ch cn n danh vi mc gi 100 USD/c phiu tr thnh c phiu
tng trng mnh m vi mc gi 550 USD/c phiu trong vng cha y su thng.
Chnh nh khon li nhun kch s t Syntex m William c tin thnh lp cng ty
William J. ONeil & Company ca ring mnh.

Goerge Soros, mt trong nhng nh u t ln nht ti ph Wall, c kt rng: Khng

c lnh vc no em li li nhun nhanh v ln bng u t chng khon. C kh nhiu
ngi xem vic u t chng khon l cuc chi ngu hng vi hy vng s kim c
nhiu tin mt cch nhanh chng. Tuy nhin, lnh vc u t y hp dn ny dng nh
khng c ch cho nhng quyt nh theo cm tnh. i vi William ONeil cng nh
nhiu cy i th khc ti ph Wall, cc quyt nh la chn c phiu cn c da
trn s phn tch v phi kt hp gia cc yu t nh lng v nh tnh. Cha kho phn
tch trong u t c phiu l tm ra nhng c phiu c tim nng tng trng ln nht
trong thi im bn mua chng. Ni cch khc, bn phi c k nng phn on, xem xt
v phn tch vn cng vi vic hoch nh mt k hoch u t thch hp xc nh
thi im mua vo nhng c phiu mnh v bn i nhng c phiu yu.

Xy dng h thng thng tin CTNY v CTCK

Thc tin hn 2 nm hot ng TTCK Vit Nam ch ra rt nhiu yu km ca h thng

thng tin (HHTT). Cc nh u t khng tin tng vo cc thng tin trn th trng v c
qu nhiu thng tin km tin cy, khng trung thc, thiu chnh xc hoc khng cp nht
kp thi.
Xt tm vi m th hon thin HNT cho TTCK thc cht l hon thin HTTT cc cng
ty chng khon (CTCK) v cc cng ty nim yt (CTNY). Cc CTCK v cc CTNY c
vai tr rt quan trng trong TTCK, l nhng ngi lm nn th trng, vi cc nghip v
ca no.

Tuy nhin cc CTCK Vit Nam u trit tiu nghip v t vn, m nghip v ny th
c coi l rt c gi tr TTCK pht trin. Nghip v t vn b trit tiu do nhiu
nguyn nhn ch quan cng nh khch quan, ch quan l pht sinh t nhng yu km ca
HTTT. c th pht trin hn na, h phi lm tng uy tn ca mnh ngay t by gi
trong nhng gii hn c th lm c nhm p ng s pht trin ca TTCK trong tng
lai.

Th nht, cn qun trit y cc nguyn tc v thng tin chng khon. Khi thng tin
cho khch hng ca mnh cng nh thng tin rng ri ra ngoi cng chng, cc CTCK
cn phi phn nh trung thc cc thng tin v chng khon, v cc cng ty nim yt. Nu
c thng tin tt v cng ty nim yt th phn nh, tuy nhin cn phi xc minh mt cch
rch ri, chnh xc bng kh nng phn tch tng hp ca cc cn b chuyn mn, trnh
tnh trng pht ngn da theo ngun thng tin khng chnh thng tri ni trn th trng,
l iu rt nguy him. Nu c thng tin khng tt v cng ty nim yt phi thng bo
cho khch hng ca mnh, khng nht thit phi thng bo rng ri khi cn e d, cha
tin cy,...

Khi thng tin trung thc hp thi th khch hng s tr thnh khch hng trung thnh
ca mnh, hn na h s chnh l nhng ngi qung co hiu qu nht, uy tn nht ca
mnh cho th trng, mi chnh l iu cn thit nht.

Th hai, pht huy hn na nhng nng lc hin c ca cng ty mnh pht trin HTTT.
Cc CTCK ca Vit Nam hin nay u l cc php nhn kinh doanh ra i t cc php
nhn tng hot ng tt trn thi trng nh cc ngn hng, tng cng ty; cc t chc
ny a trang b cho mnh HTTT kh hon chnh nh ni mng din rng gia cc chi
nhnh. Nh vy vi th mnh sn c ny, cc CTCK nn c nhng gii php ring cho
mnh: chng hn tip nhn thm, thu ht thm cc nh u t t cc chi nhnh v thng
qua h thng mng thng tin ny, khu x l lnh ca cng ty tr nn n gin, ch
khng nh cc cng ty khng c mng din rng, phm vi hot ng ca h rt hp.

Th ba, v lu di, cc CTCK nn duy tr hot ng t vn ca mnh bng cch u t

cng tc thng tin chng khon nh xy dng cc b phn mm phn tch d liu chng
khon ph hp vi c th TTCK Vit Nam. Ngay trc mt, vi nhu cu cn nh v
ngun ngn sch hn hp, cc cng ty cha th lm g hn, tuy nhin cc cng ty ny phi
c nh hng v k hoch thc hin, chng hn ti tr cc sinh vin gii v cng ngh
thng tin, v chng khon, hng dn h ngun ti liu nghin cu, gy thin cm v
sau ny hoc c nhng quan h cng tc vi cc chuyn gia gii trong nhng lnh vc
trn, nhng cha phc v ngay cng tc thng tin chng khon, sau ny khi cn th h c
th gnh vc trch nhim cng cng ty.
V pha cc CTNY, h phi t cu ly mnh ngay t lc ny. Khi cc CTNY chp hnh
tt cc quy nh v thng tin chng khon th HTTT chng khon ca Vit Nam cng s
c ci thin ng k.

Th nht, cc CTNY phi chp hnh cc quy ch v cng b thng tin. Hin nay cc cng
ty ang thc hin vic cng b thng tin. Theo cc quy nh trong chng IV - Quy ch
thng tin ban hnh km theo Quyt nh 04/1999/Q-UBCKNN ca U ban chng khon
Nh nc. Quy ch hin hnh ny tuy s c nhng sa i cho ph hp hn nhng trc
mt cc cng ty vn phi chp hnh v nu c nhng thc mc th phi np bo cn cho
U ban chng khon Nh nc, Trung tm giao dch chng khon, m khng th li
vo vic cha c ch ti x pht ca U ban chng khon Nh nc lm ba, khng
chp hnh cng tc thng tin, bo co theo quy nh.

Th hai, cc CTNY phi qun trit cc nguyn tc v thng tin chng khon. Ta bit cc
thng tin chng khon phi trung thc, cng khai, r rng v minh bch. Nu thng tin c
p p, m m, ai bit ti u th bit v cng ty th h s thiu i mt b phn cc nh
u t di hn.

Hn na, khi thng tin ra th trng v cc bo co ti chnh, cc phng n kinh doanh

ca mnh cc cng ty cn phi ht sc thn trng, cn tnh ti mi kh nng pht sinh chi
ph... khi thng tin khi (ra chnh thc c cng b th l thng tin chnh thc
khng th c s gii thch no khc.

Cc CTNY phi nhn thc c rng s trung thc v thng tin ca cng ty khng phi
l s b mt thng tin m l ngha v v quyn li ca nh, nh u t s tm n cng ty
no lm n hiu qu tht s v thng tin trung thc v h trn th trng, l cch cng
ty tn ti lu di trn th trng, hn na s l i tng rt vn m rng sn xut ca
nh u t nc ngoi trong tng lai .

Th ba, cc CTNY nn chuyn mn ho b phn cung cp thng tin, khng cn b

thng tin lm vic kim nhim nh hin nay m phi c cc cn b thc s lm vic trn.
H hiu r quyn li v ngha v ca vic cung cp thng tin, hiu c cc nguyn tc
thng tin ca TTCK, cng nh thi im ph hp u ra nhng ngun thng tin khc
nhau, thng tin chin lc, thng tin tc nghip, thng tin qun tr, thng tin qun l...
Hn na, l ngi ph trch thng tin chuyn nghip trong t chc, h cng bit r u l
thng tin chnh thc, khng chnh thc v u tranh chng li nhng thng tin l ci, sai
lch, nhng thng tin khng trung thc v t chc ca h.

Tm hiu kinh nghim QT v pht hnh tng vn v chi tr c tc bng CP

A. Pht hnh tng vn

Doanh nghip sau khi thnh lp c th bt u huy ng vn. Vic tng vn c th c
thc hin qua 2 hnh thc:

- Pht hnh c phiu mi c xem xt pht hnh quyn

- Pht hnh c phiu mi khng xem xt pht hnh thng

a. Pht hnh c phiu mi c xem xt

Pht hnh c phiu mi c xem xt l phng thc thng c s dng bi cc cng ty

ti Hn Quc, i Loan. Cc nh u t c th t mua c phiu mi c pht hnh
thng qua 3 cch sau:

- Thng qua pht hnh quyn cho cc c ng hin hu.

Ty theo b lut thng mi, c ng c quyn nhng khng c ngha v mua cc c

phn trc. Nu tt c cc c phn mi c pht hnh khng c mua ht trong thi
hn nh trc, cng ty c th hon thnh t pht hnh mi bng vic phn b phn cn
li cho tc i tc.

- Thng qua phn phi cho cc bn i tc.

Quyn mua c phiu mi vi quyn u tin trc c th c cp cho cc bn i tc c

quan h khng kht vi cng ty pht hnh v d nh: cc nhn vin, cc i tc kinh
doanh, cc nh cung cp, cc c ng chnh.

- Thng qua pht hnh ra cng chng.

c php ca hi ng qun tr, cng ty c th pht hnh ra cng chng theo mun,
tuy nhin phi ngoi tr quyn mua ca cc ng hin hu.

b. Pht hnh mi khng c xem xt

Pht hnh mi khng c xem xt dn ti vic tng tng s c phiu ng lu hnh ca

cng ty, tuy nhin khng c s tng vn c ng hoc tng ti sn ca cng ty pht hnh
ti thi im pht hnh. Kiu tng vn ny c phn thnh 2 loi:

- Chuyn i d tr.

C phn mi c pht hnh khng c bt c s thu ht no cc khon tin t bn ngoi

vo khi m thng d vn hoc li nhun gi li c chuyn thnh vn c phn.

- Chuyn li nhun thnh vn c phn nhm chi tr c tc bng c phiu.

Li nhun ca cng ty c chuyn thnh c tc di dng c phiu v tr cho cc c

ng hin hu. C tc c phiu c c l ty thuc vo t l phn b chng khon s
hu ca doanh nghip ti cc c ng. Ngc li vi tr c tc bng tin mt, c tc ca
c phiu c tr bng c phiu.

Tm li, vic tng vn ca doanh nghip thng s xem xt ti hai kh nng xy ra,
l:

- Tng c phn pht hnh ln bng cch pht hnh c phiu trn c s gii hn
ca vn c ng.

- Tng vn c ng bng cch pht hnh thm c phiu huy ng vn lm tng

vn iu l ca cng ty. Khi tng vn bng cch ny, vn ch s hu cng tng ln.

Ngoi ra cn c mt s phng php pht hnh tng vn khc nh pht hnh ti mc gi

th trng. Khng ging nh pht hnh theo mnh gi, y l mt phng thc m gi
ca c phn c xc nh bi chnh th trng. Ti Hn Quc, trc khi vn dng
phng php ny t 12/1983, vic tng vn ca cc cng ty c thc hin trn c s
mnh gi. Vic hng dn h thng mi ny ch ra rng gi pht hnh c xc nh theo
gi th trng theo mt t l trit khu nht nh do SEC Securities and Exchange
Commision qui nh. Sau 8/1987, tt c cc cng ty nim yt ti S giao dch chng
khon Hn Quc mun tng vn u thng qua h thng ny. Sau , thng 6/1991, t l
trit khu hon ton c th ni, mi quyt nh v t l trit khu c da trn quyt
nh ca chnh ban gim c iu hnh cng ty pht hnh. Theo cc qui nh v qun l
ti chnh ca cc cng ty nim yt, cc cng ty c php pht hnh c phn vn ti mc
gi th trng ngoi tr gi khng bao gm quyn hoc gi c s gim xung di mc
mnh gi.

Gi pht hnh mi thng c xem xt gia 2 la chn, ly la chn no c gi thp

hn.

- La chn th nht l trit khu t mc gi khng bao gm quyn mua trong 5

ngy trc ngy ghi s.

- La chn 2 c c bng vic trit khu gi c s 7 ngy trc ngy t mua.

L do ca vic xc nh gi pht hnh theo cch ny l cung cp cho cc c ng c

hi t mua cc c phiu mi pht hnh ti mc gi thp nu c th. Cc c ng hin
hu thng to cc quyt nh mua hoc khng i vi cc c phiu mi trc ngy
khng quyn. Vi l do thi gian t ngy khng quyn ti lc t mua thng ln hn 2
thng, cc c ng hin hu d b t vo cc tnh hung bin ng gi qu mc. iu
ny c ngha l: trong giai on ny, nu gi chng khon gim v ai t mua c phiu
mi s b l mt khon tng ng chnh lch gia gi th trng v gi pht hnh.
t c li nhun, cn thit phi tnh ton ti chn la th 2 trn c s gi th trng
gim. Theo tnh ton, khi gi th trng ca c phn hin hu tng, la chn 1 s tr
thnh thc t gi cho vic pht hnh. Ngc li khi n gim, la chn 2 s l gi pht
hnh thc t.
Th d:

La chn th nht.

Gi khng quyn = gi c s + gi la chn 1 x t l tng vn / 1 + t l tng vn

Trong gi c s c xc nh nh sau:

Gi c s l trung bnh gi th trng hoc gi ng ca ca ngy giao dch trc ngy

c s trc ngy ghi s 5 ngy 1 ngy ly gi thp. Ngha l gi c s c th l 1 trong 2
gi sau, ly gi no thp hn:

- gi ng ca trc ngy c s 1 ngy.

- gi trung bnh= a + b + c / 3 trong :

+ a : Trung bnh ng ca c trng s khi lng ca cc phin trc ngy c s 1 thng.

+ b : Trung bnh ng ca c trng s khi lng ca cc phin trc ngy c s 1 tun.

+ c : Gi ng ca ngy trc ngy c s 1ngy.

Gi la chn 1 = gi khng quyn x 1 - t l trit khu

La chn th hai. Gi la chn 2 = gi c s x 1 - t l trit khu

Trong :

- Gi c s l trung bnh gi th trng hoc gi ng ca ca ngy giao dch sau ngy

kha s 53 ngy 1 ngy ly gi thp. Trung bnh gi th trng=a+b/2 trong :

+a : trung bnh gi ng ca ca 1 tun gn ngy c s nht ngha l trc ngy t

mua 7 ngy.

+y : gi ng ca ca ngy giao dch trc ngy c s.

V cui cng l gi pht hnh c th l 1 trong 2 gi trn vi gi nh hn.

B. Tr c tc bng c phiu.

Tr c tc bng c phiu thc cht l nhm gi li cc khon li nhun, thng d hoc

cc khon tin ca cc qu nhm cng c lng tin mt hin c trong vn ca c ng
cng nh ca Doanh nghip thc y vic u t, kinh doanh sn xut ca doanh
nghip. Khng c s thay tng gim no v vn c ng cng nh ti sn ca cng ty. V
c bn, s lng c phiu s tng ln v lm cho t l vn c phn tng ln. cn tip
B. Tr c tc bng c phiu

Ti cc S giao dch chng khon ca cc nc c nn kinh t pht trin, vic p dng

hnh thc chi tr c tc bng c phiu din ra rt lu. Ngoi vic tun th cc qui nh
ca Lut p dng i vi cc cng ty c phn, cc qui nh v hng dn ca S giao
dch, UBCK cc nc, vic chi tr c tc theo hnh thc nh th no s ty thuc vo
quyt nh ca i hi c ng hoc ca Hi ng qun tr cng ty trn c s xem xt
ca i hi c ng.

Vit Nam, theo mc 1, iu 67, Lut Doanh nghip v chi tr c tc, cng ty c phn
ch tr c tc cho c ng khi cng ty kinh doanh c li, hon thnh ngha v np thu
v cc ngha v ti chnh khc theo qui nh ca php lut. Vic chi tr c tc do quyt
nh ca i hi c ng cng ty. Thng thng mt cng ty lm n c li s chi tr c
tc cho c ng di dng tin mt. Khon tin ny c trch t li nhun ca doanh
nghip sau khi trch lp cc qu theo qui nh ca php lut doanh nghip, theo iu l
ca cng ty v gi li mt phn nhm ti u t pht trin sn xut. Cng theo Lut
Doanh nghip, C tc c nh ngha l s tin hng nm c trch t li nhun ca
cng ty tr cho mi c phn. Nh vy trong cc vn bn php lut hin hnh ca chng
ta cha h c qui nh no ni v vic chi tr c tc cho c ng bng c phiu.

Tuy nhin ti cc th trng chng khon trn th gii, c rt nhiu trng hp cc cng
ty khng chi tr c tc di dng tin mt. Thay vo , ty thuc vo tnh hnh cng ty
v quyt nh ca i hi c ng, cc cng ty s chi tr c tc di dng c phiu. Khi
, cc vn sau s c lu tm:

a. Ngun c phiu dng chi tr c tc.

- Pht hnh mi.

Vic pht hnh mi c phiu phc v chi tr c tc nh ni trn trong phn pht hnh
tng vn. Tuy nhin vic pht hnh mi ny khng lm tng vn c ng do mt mt
lng c phiu mi tng ln lm cho lng c phiu lu hnh tng ln v vn c phn
theo tng ln nhng thc cht n c chuyn i t li nhun, thng d vn ca cng
ty c gi li thay v em chi tr cho c ng di dng tin mt.

- C phiu Ngn qu.

C phiu Ngn qu l c phiu m cng ty mua li trn th trng. C nhiu l do

cng ty mua li c phiu do chnh cng ty pht hnh trn th trng, nhng mc tiu ch
yu l tng li nhun chi tr cho c ng do s c phiu mua li ny khng c quyn
nhn c tc, ngn nga vic thu tm cng ty, tng li nhun t chnh vic mua bn li
ny, phc v cho vic chi tr c tc bng c phiu..

Vit Nam, theo qui nh trong iu 65 v mua li c phn theo quyt nh ca cng ty
ca Lut Doanh nghip, iu 54 Qui ch Thnh vin, Nim yt, Cng b Thng tin v
Giao dch Chng khon, t chc nim nim yt c quyn v ch c php mua li khng
qu 30% tng s c phiu ph thng, mt phn hoc ton b c phiu khc pht hnh
v phi np n xin php theo qui nh ca TTGDCK. Do nu c php thc hin
chi tr c tc bng c phiu, lng c phiu chi tr c tc cng s nm trong gii hn
trn y.

b. T l tr c tc bng c phiu.

T l chi tr c tc bng c phiu l t l c tc bng c phiu nhn c trn s lng

c phiu ang nm gi.

V d: Nu t l chi tr c tc bng c phiu l 10%, nh vy nu 1 c ng nm gi 100

c phiu s c chi tr c tc tng ng vi 10 c phiu.

c. Loi c phiu v s lng.

- Loi c phiu: Loi c phiu c chi tr c tc c th bao gm cc loi nh: c

phiu thng; c phiu u i.

- S lng: Tng s lng c phiu dng chi tr c tc cho c ng do i hi

c ng cng ty cng quyt nh cn c trn thc t li nhun ca cng ty v vic cn i
cc khon tin cng nh nhu cu v tin mt ca cng ty.

d. Phng php chi tr c tc bng c phiu.

- Ngy ghi tn vo danh sch c ng.

Ngi ang nm gi c phiu mun nhn c c tc phi c tn trong danh sch c

ng vo ngy cui cng ca nm ti chnh. Do , t chc nim yt thng s phi cng
b thng tin vic chi tr c tc bng c phiu trc ngy kt thc nm ti chnh mt
khong thi gian nht nh. iu ny cho php ngi u t c th la chn xem mnh c
nn tip tc nm gi hay bn c phiu.

- Phng n chi tr i vi cc c ng nm gi s l c phiu.

Nu s c tc chi tr bng c phiu l mt s l, c ng s nhn c s c phiu chn,

phn l cn li s c qui i thnh tin mt v thanh ton cho c ng.

V d: Mt c ng s hu 70 c phiu, t l chi tr c tc bng c phiu l 5%. Nh

vy, s lng c phiu nhn c s l 3,5 c phiu. T chc nim yt s gom tt c
nhng phn c phiu l v bn ra th trng sau thanh ton bng tin cho c ng.
Nh vy vn m bo c s lng pht hnh m tha mn nhu cu ca nh u t. i
vi trng hp trn y, c ng nm gi 70 c phiu s nhn c 3 c phiu v phn
tin qui i t 0,5 c phiu l.

- Cc thay i s xy ra i vi c phiu ang lu hnh.

Trong khong thi gian nht nh nh ni trn y trc khi kt thc nm ti chnh,
tng s c phiu ca t chc nim yt c th tng ln do mt s cc trng hp c bit
nh : c ng thc hin cc quyn km theo c phiu hoc tri phiu chuyn i. iu
ny dn n thay i t l chi tr c tc bng c phiu. Do , t chc nim yt s phi
cng b r rng v cc cc kh nng xy ra thay i ny.

e. Ngy thng qua ngh quyt ca Ban gim c v vic chi tr c tc bng c phiu.

Thng thng, t l chi tr c tc c th thay i, vn ny quyt nh ra sao ty thuc

vo i hi c ng. Cng ty phi thc hin cng b thng tin v vic chi tr c tc bng
c phiu v cc vn lin quan ra cng chng trc khi thc hin chi tr mt khong
thi gian nht nh.

i vi th trng chng khon Vit Nam, vic xem xt v nh hng trc v chi tr c
tc di hnh thc c phiu ang c xem xt. c th thc hin c nhim v ,
cn gii quyt cc vn sau y:

1. Xem xt b sung cc qui nh v vn ny i vi cc vn bn php lut lin

quan, trong quan trng nht l Lut Doanh nghip, Ngh nh 48 ca CP, cc qui nh,
qui ch lin quan ca UBCKNN v vic pht hnh tng vn i vi vic chi tr c tc
bng c phiu, cc qui nh v iu l Doanh nghip.

2. Khn trng xy dng v nghin cu cc qui trnh hng dn th tc lin quan n

vic chi tr c tc bng c phiu cho cc t chc nim yt, trong lu ti cc vn
nh sau:

- Ngoi tr vic tun th cc qui nh trong iu l cng ty, Ban gim c cng ty xem
xt cc vn lin quan ti vic chi tr c tc bng c phiu nh: ngun chi tr, t l chi
tr, ngy ng k cui cng, ngy chi tr, bin php gii quyt i vi cc phn l ca c
phiu..

- Hng dn cng b thng tin v gi thng bo cn thit ti S giao dch cng nh

UBCK.

- Hng dn np h s xin php pht hnh b sung tng vn trong ghi r mc tiu
nhm chi tr c tc bng c phiu theo cc qui nh mi.

- Cc qui trnh kt hp vi S giao dch, UBCK trong vic thc hin ng s c ng,
xc nh ch s hu thc s c php chi tr c tc, thng bo cho c ng, nhng
ngi s nhn c c tc bng c phiu.

- ng k thay i vn vi c quan c thm quyn.

- Hng dn Chun b v trnh cc ti liu, n lin quan n nim yt b sung.

Trong trng hp cc th tc trn tin hnh xong, S giao dch cn c l trnh c th
cn c trn thng bo ca t chc nim yt, cc giy php cp thng bo v ngy
giao dch khng c tc, tin hnh tnh ton ch s chng khon trn c s thay i v s
lng c phiu b sung nim yt ca cng ty.

Tm hiu kinh nghim quc t v pht hnh tng vn v chi tr c tc bng c phiu -
phn 2

B. Tr c tc bng c phiu

Ti cc S giao dch chng khon ca cc nc c nn kinh t pht trin, vic p dng

hnh thc chi tr c tc bng c phiu din ra rt lu. Ngoi vic tun th cc qui nh
ca Lut p dng i vi cc cng ty c phn, cc qui nh v hng dn ca S giao
dch, UBCK cc nc, vic chi tr c tc theo hnh thc nh th no s ty thuc vo
quyt nh ca i hi c ng hoc ca Hi ng qun tr cng ty trn c s xem xt
ca i hi c ng.

Vit Nam, theo mc 1, iu 67, Lut Doanh nghip v chi tr c tc, cng ty c phn
ch tr c tc cho c ng khi cng ty kinh doanh c li, hon thnh ngha v np thu
v cc ngha v ti chnh khc theo qui nh ca php lut. Vic chi tr c tc do quyt
nh ca i hi c ng cng ty. Thng thng mt cng ty lm n c li s chi tr c
tc cho c ng di dng tin mt. Khon tin ny c trch t li nhun ca doanh
nghip sau khi trch lp cc qu theo qui nh ca php lut doanh nghip, theo iu l
ca cng ty v gi li mt phn nhm ti u t pht trin sn xut. Cng theo Lut
Doanh nghip, C tc c nh ngha l s tin hng nm c trch t li nhun ca
cng ty tr cho mi c phn. Nh vy trong cc vn bn php lut hin hnh ca chng
ta cha h c qui nh no ni v vic chi tr c tc cho c ng bng c phiu.

Tuy nhin ti cc th trng chng khon trn th gii, c rt nhiu trng hp cc cng
ty khng chi tr c tc di dng tin mt. Thay vo , ty thuc vo tnh hnh cng ty
v quyt nh ca i hi c ng, cc cng ty s chi tr c tc di dng c phiu. Khi
, cc vn sau s c lu tm:

a. Ngun c phiu dng chi tr c tc.

- Pht hnh mi.

Vic pht hnh mi c phiu phc v chi tr c tc nh ni trn trong phn pht hnh
tng vn. Tuy nhin vic pht hnh mi ny khng lm tng vn c ng do mt mt
lng c phiu mi tng ln lm cho lng c phiu lu hnh tng ln v vn c phn
theo tng ln nhng thc cht n c chuyn i t li nhun, thng d vn ca cng
ty c gi li thay v em chi tr cho c ng di dng tin mt.

- C phiu Ngn qu.

C phiu Ngn qu l c phiu m cng ty mua li trn th trng. C nhiu l do
cng ty mua li c phiu do chnh cng ty pht hnh trn th trng, nhng mc tiu ch
yu l tng li nhun chi tr cho c ng do s c phiu mua li ny khng c quyn
nhn c tc, ngn nga vic thu tm cng ty, tng li nhun t chnh vic mua bn li
ny, phc v cho vic chi tr c tc bng c phiu..

Vit Nam, theo qui nh trong iu 65 v mua li c phn theo quyt nh ca cng ty
ca Lut Doanh nghip, iu 54 Qui ch Thnh vin, Nim yt, Cng b Thng tin v
Giao dch Chng khon, t chc nim nim yt c quyn v ch c php mua li khng
qu 30% tng s c phiu ph thng, mt phn hoc ton b c phiu khc pht hnh
v phi np n xin php theo qui nh ca TTGDCK. Do nu c php thc hin
chi tr c tc bng c phiu, lng c phiu chi tr c tc cng s nm trong gii hn
trn y.

b. T l tr c tc bng c phiu.

T l chi tr c tc bng c phiu l t l c tc bng c phiu nhn c trn s lng

c phiu ang nm gi.

V d: Nu t l chi tr c tc bng c phiu l 10%, nh vy nu 1 c ng nm gi 100

c phiu s c chi tr c tc tng ng vi 10 c phiu.

c. Loi c phiu v s lng.

- Loi c phiu: Loi c phiu c chi tr c tc c th bao gm cc loi nh: c

phiu thng; c phiu u i.

- S lng: Tng s lng c phiu dng chi tr c tc cho c ng do i hi

c ng cng ty cng quyt nh cn c trn thc t li nhun ca cng ty v vic cn i
cc khon tin cng nh nhu cu v tin mt ca cng ty.

d. Phng php chi tr c tc bng c phiu.

- Ngy ghi tn vo danh sch c ng.

Ngi ang nm gi c phiu mun nhn c c tc phi c tn trong danh sch c

ng vo ngy cui cng ca nm ti chnh. Do , t chc nim yt thng s phi cng
b thng tin vic chi tr c tc bng c phiu trc ngy kt thc nm ti chnh mt
khong thi gian nht nh. iu ny cho php ngi u t c th la chn xem mnh c
nn tip tc nm gi hay bn c phiu.

- Phng n chi tr i vi cc c ng nm gi s l c phiu.

Nu s c tc chi tr bng c phiu l mt s l, c ng s nhn c s c phiu chn,

phn l cn li s c qui i thnh tin mt v thanh ton cho c ng.
V d: Mt c ng s hu 70 c phiu, t l chi tr c tc bng c phiu l 5%. Nh
vy, s lng c phiu nhn c s l 3,5 c phiu. T chc nim yt s gom tt c
nhng phn c phiu l v bn ra th trng sau thanh ton bng tin cho c ng.
Nh vy vn m bo c s lng pht hnh m tha mn nhu cu ca nh u t. i
vi trng hp trn y, c ng nm gi 70 c phiu s nhn c 3 c phiu v phn
tin qui i t 0,5 c phiu l.

- Cc thay i s xy ra i vi c phiu ang lu hnh.

Trong khong thi gian nht nh nh ni trn y trc khi kt thc nm ti chnh,
tng s c phiu ca t chc nim yt c th tng ln do mt s cc trng hp c bit
nh : c ng thc hin cc quyn km theo c phiu hoc tri phiu chuyn i. iu
ny dn n thay i t l chi tr c tc bng c phiu. Do , t chc nim yt s phi
cng b r rng v cc cc kh nng xy ra thay i ny.

e. Ngy thng qua ngh quyt ca Ban gim c v vic chi tr c tc bng c phiu.

Thng thng, t l chi tr c tc c th thay i, vn ny quyt nh ra sao ty thuc

vo i hi c ng. Cng ty phi thc hin cng b thng tin v vic chi tr c tc bng
c phiu v cc vn lin quan ra cng chng trc khi thc hin chi tr mt khong
thi gian nht nh.

i vi th trng chng khon Vit Nam, vic xem xt v nh hng trc v chi tr c
tc di hnh thc c phiu ang c xem xt. c th thc hin c nhim v ,
cn gii quyt cc vn sau y:

1. Xem xt b sung cc qui nh v vn ny i vi cc vn bn php lut lin

quan, trong quan trng nht l Lut Doanh nghip, Ngh nh 48 ca CP, cc qui nh,
qui ch lin quan ca UBCKNN v vic pht hnh tng vn i vi vic chi tr c tc
bng c phiu, cc qui nh v iu l Doanh nghip.

2. Khn trng xy dng v nghin cu cc qui trnh hng dn th tc lin quan n

vic chi tr c tc bng c phiu cho cc t chc nim yt, trong lu ti cc vn
nh sau:

- Ngoi tr vic tun th cc qui nh trong iu l cng ty, Ban gim c cng ty xem
xt cc vn lin quan ti vic chi tr c tc bng c phiu nh: ngun chi tr, t l chi
tr, ngy ng k cui cng, ngy chi tr, bin php gii quyt i vi cc phn l ca c
phiu..

- Hng dn cng b thng tin v gi thng bo cn thit ti S giao dch cng nh

UBCK.

- Hng dn np h s xin php pht hnh b sung tng vn trong ghi r mc tiu
nhm chi tr c tc bng c phiu theo cc qui nh mi.
- Cc qui trnh kt hp vi S giao dch, UBCK trong vic thc hin ng s c ng,
xc nh ch s hu thc s c php chi tr c tc, thng bo cho c ng, nhng
ngi s nhn c c tc bng c phiu.

- ng k thay i vn vi c quan c thm quyn.

- Hng dn Chun b v trnh cc ti liu, n lin quan n nim yt b sung.

Trong trng hp cc th tc trn tin hnh xong, S giao dch cn c l trnh c th

cn c trn thng bo ca t chc nim yt, cc giy php cp thng bo v ngy
giao dch khng c tc, tin hnh tnh ton ch s chng khon trn c s thay i v s
lng c phiu b sung nim yt ca cng ty.

S dng biu d bo gi c phiu

Cc nh kinh t tng bc b vic s dng cc m hnh phn tch nhng d liu trong
qu kh d on gi c phiu trong tng lai. Tuy nhin, thc t chng minh, cc
biu gi c phiu m cc nh phn tch k thut thng p dng d on gi c
phiu c th mang li nhiu thng tin gi tr.

Nh phn tch k thut trn th trng chng khon l nhng ngi c th d on gi c

phiu trong tng lai bng vic pht hin ra xu hng gi trong qu kh. Cc biu th
trng ca h biu din cc m hnh c tn gi rt sng ng, nh m hnh nh u vai
vi mt nh ln cng hai nh nh thp hn hai bn, hay m hnh y ln vi mt lot
cc y, mi y sau li thp hn y lin trc... Nhng thng tin giao dch tuy rt n
gin t cc biu ny nhng li l lc tri cho i vi nhng ngi bit c n.

T mt th k trc y, Charles Dow - nh sng lp ra ch s Dow Jones hin nay

pht minh ra l thuyt Dow d on xu hng gi c phiu. Cc biu c mt s
nh u t ni ting th gii s dng nh Stanley Druckenmiller - ngi ang qun l
Qu phng nga ri ro Quantum ca George Soros v Jeffrey Vinik - ngi tng qun
l Qu tng h Magellan. Cc nh kinh t nghin cu th trng ti chnh vn xem phn
tch k thut nh mt php thn ch v c nhiu mi quan h i vi phn tch c bn
mang tnh kinh t chnh xc nh chim tinh vi thin vn hc.

Nhng nh kinh t phn bc phn tch k thut cho rng, trong mt th trng hiu qu,
gi c phn nh tt c cc thng tin hin ti v vic nghin cu cc m hnh gi trong qu
kh s khng mang li mt thng tin b ch no nh liu gi c phiu trong tng lai s
tng hay gim. C th, gi c s chuyn ng m khng th d on c hay thay i
mt cch ngu nhin. Trong thp k va qua, mt s nh kinh t kim nghim l
thuyt th trng hiu qu bng cch tm ra mt s cc v d minh ha nhng chuyn
ng trong gi c phiu c th d on c d dng.
Tuy nhin, vn cn nhiu tranh ci v vic liu nhng chuyn ng ny c kh nng
d on cho cc nh u t thu li trn c s nhng thay i gi mong i? Cu hi ny
c cp mt cch chi ht trong cun "Th trng chng khon khng chuyn ng
mt cch ngu nhin" (nh xut bn i hc Princeton, 1999) ca Craig MacKinlay thuc
Trng Wharton School v Andrew Lo thuc Hc vin cng ngh Massachusetts.

ng Andrew Lo v hai ng tc gi a ra nhng lun chng bo v m hnh phn

tch k thut. Bng vic s dng gi c phiu ca M trong cc nm t 1962 n 1996, h
kim tra kh nng d bo ca 5 cp m hnh phn tch k thut ang c s dng rng
ri: nh u v vai, nh u v vai ln ngc, nh v y rng, ba nh v y, hai nh
v y. Kt qu cho thy, cc m hnh phn tch k thut hu nh xy ra thng xuyn
hn nu chng thc s l cc s kin ngu nhin.

Nhn chung, cc biu cha ng cc thng tin b ch v gi c phiu trong tng lai.
Tuy nhin, c mt s khc nhau rt ln gia cc kt qu ti cc th trng khc nhau. Vi
nhng c phiu nim yt trn S giao dch chng khon New York (NYSE) v S giao
dch chng khon M (AMEX), ch c 7 trong s 10 m hnh phn tch k thut c
kh nng d bo thng k. i vi c phiu trn th trng Nasdaq th c 10 m hnh
u c ngha quan trng v mt thng k.

Nghin cu khng i su vo tm hiu iu g to ra cc m hnh nhng c mt kh nng

l cc m hnh phn nh nhng thay i trong tm l nh u t. S ham thch ri ro ca
nh u t c th thay i theo cch c th d bo tng ng vi nhng thay i c th
trong mc gi. Nhng hin vn cha r rng, liu kh nng d on ca cc m hnh
phn tch k thut s b mt i hay khng nu cc nh u t qu tn dng chng thc
hin giao dch.

Do cc nh u t s dng biu trong d on gi c phiu khong 100 nm nay v

chng vn chng t c tnh hu dng ca mnh, nn kh nng d on ca cc m hnh
s vn cn mi. Cc m hnh truyn thng c s dng trong phn tch k thut vn cn
kh s si v c xc nh bi nhng ci c th nhn thy. V th, phn tch k thut vn
thng c coi l mt ngh thut hn l mt mn khoa hc.

Thng tin v ngnh KD ca Cng ty

Nhn t quan trng quyt nh thnh cng ca vic u t vo cng ty pht hnh l thng
qua vic tm hiu cng ty thc hin nhng hot ng kinh doanh no v cc i th cnh
tranh ca cng ty l ai. Bn cng c th nu ra cu hi liu cng ty pht hnh c ng k
bng sng ch cho sn phm ca mnh khng, v iu ny s gip cng ty c li th hn
cc i th cnh tranh ca mnh. Cng ty pht hnh c s dng cng ngh cao khng?
Cng ty c kh nng iu tit gi c khng? Hay y cng ch l mt cng ty na trong
mt lnh vc kinh doanh vn rt trn ngp?
Nhng vn ny cng nhng vn lin quan khc s c gii p trong phn Thng
tin v ngnh kinh doanh. Tuy nhin bn hy chun b tinh thn phi c rt nhiu y.
Nhng ngi chun b Bn co bch c th t ra gi thit ngi c l nhng ngi ln
u tin tm hiu v cng ty v do h a ra cc yu t v lch s, c cu v cc hot
ng ca cng ty nhm to nn mt bc tranh ton cnh v cng ty. Thng tin a ra
thng bao gm:

- Tnh hnh cc ngnh kinh doanh chnh m cng ty pht hnh tham gia:

- Trin vng ca cc ngnh lin quan c nh hng ti hot ng ngnh kinh doanh chnh
ca cng ty pht hnh;

- Loi sn phm / dch v kinh doanh chnh ca cng ty;

- Khch hng v nh cung cp ca cng ty pht hnh;

- Cng ngh, phng thc sn xut v knh phn phi s dng;

- Cc nhn t thng mi nh h thng bn l, i l, h thng phn phi, nhn hiu sn

phm, giy php kinh doanh, bng sng ch v kh nng nghin cu v pht trn.

i vi cc cng ty ng k nim yt c hng chnh sch u i th phn thng tin v

ngnh kinh doanh ny trong Bn co bch cng cn phi cng b chi tit cc vn v
cng ngh ca nhng cng ty ny.

Phn tch k thut: H tr v khng c, ng xu th

a. Khi nim h tr v khng c

H tr v khng c l mt tip cn khc hon ton vi tip cn nh dng trnh by trc

y v hnh vi ca th trng. N cho php a ra quy tc la chn c phiu mua hoc
bn, trong vic nh gi din bin gi c ca c phiu v xc nh vng c vn . Mt s
nh phn tch xy dng cho mnh mt h thng ring ch da vo khi nim h tr v
khng c v khng cn n cc nh dng gi c v khi lng nu trn.

H tr c hiu nh sau: v d, mt m ng h tr c phiu A ti gi 60, tc l sn

sng mua tt c cc c phiu A vi gi thp hn 5 im so vi 60. H tr l vic mua mt
khi lng c phiu ln ngn chn xu hng gim gi trong mt giai on no .
Khng c c hiu l ngc li vi h tr: bn c phiu vi khi lng ln p
ng tt c cc khon cho mua, v do ngn chn khng cho gi tng ln. Nh vy, h
tr v khng c gn nh c hiu l cu v cung tng ng.
Mc h tr l mc gi ti c mt khi lng cu mua c phiu ngn chn xu
hng gim gi, hoc c th tng gi. Mc khng c l mc gi ti c chng khon
cung ra ngn chn xu hng tng gi. Vy vng h tr th hin s tp trung ca cu v
vng khng c th hin s tp trung ca cung. V d, ng bin pha trn ca hnh thang
l mc khng c, cn ng bin pha di l mc h tr. ng bin pha trn ca tam
gic i ln l mc khng c.

C s ca d on t l thuyt h tr v khng c l khi lng giao dch ca mt loi c

phiu c xu hng tp trung ln ti mt s mc gi, ti c nhiu c phiu c trao
tay nhau. V bt k mc gi no m ti c khi lng ln giao dch xy ra thng l
im o chiu ca xu th cp mt, cp hai, cp ba, v vy o chiu ti cc mc gi
lun lun c th xy ra. Tuy vy, cn ch rng cc mc gi ny thng xuyn thay i
vai tr t h tr sang khng c v ngc li.

Mt nh, khi gi c phiu vt qua, c th tr thnh vng y ca xu th i xung

giai on sau ny, v mt y c, mt khi gi tt qua n, c th tr thnh vng y ca
giai on tng gi sau ny.

b. V d gii thch

Gi s gi tng, t 65, 68, 70. Ch s hu c phiu cho rng h nhn nh ng, v

vy h vn ch i. Nhng sau giai on gi tng chm dt v gi bt u tt xung
67, 65, 62, 60. Ch s hu s lo lng nhng h vn tin s c c hi thu li. Ti 60 gi bt
u chng li mt thi gian, sau gi gim t ngt. Ngi ta vn hy vng vic gim
t ngt ny ch l s iu chnh, nhng hy vng s tiu tan khi xu th i xung vn tip
tc. Cc ch s hu c phiu bt u lo thc s:

c ci g sai tri y? Khi gi tt n 55 th khng cn hy vng thu li nhun. H lp

lun rng phi kin nhn ch gi quay tr li 60 v ti h s rt lui khi th trng.

By gi ta xt trng hp xu th i ln. Gi c phiu t 12, sau tng n 24 v do

ngi s hu c phiu bn ra thu li nhun. C phiu phn ng, tt xung 21 v ngi
u t thy mnh gp may. Nhng sau gi li vt ln 30. Ngi ch s hu c
phiu trc y cm thy b h, do h li mun mua li c phiu, nhng h s khng
mua vi gi cao hn 24. l din bin chung ca tm l th trng.

Nh vy chng ta gii thch nguyn l c bn ca mc h tr v khng c. Cn ch

rng s cn bng cung v cu trn th trng l vn t nh. Ch cn c mt mc cung
d tha nh l c th kim ch s tng gi, v ch cn mt mc cu d tha l c th km
hm s gim gi. Tt c cc nh giao dch u theo di st sao th trng v c th nhn
ra ngay mt s thay i ca tnh hnh, v h sn sng tham gia vo cuc chi khi s thay
i ca xu th xut hin. V vy ch cn thm mt t cc lnh mua hoc lnh bn c phiu
l c th ko theo s chuyn giao hng nghn c phiu.

Cc nh giao dch v cc nh u t khi h to nn mc h tr hoc khng c u l

nhng ngi c kinh nghim v thng thi trong vic tham gia vo hot ng th trng.
V d, nh trn nu ra, nhng ngi mua ti gi 60 chc chn l thng minh hn
nhng ngi mua ti nh 70 hoc ti cc im trong giai on gim gi xung 60. Nh
vy c th ni rng h nh gi tnh hnh sau ny mt cch thn trng v khn ngoan hn
nhng ngi bo th quyt nh ra khi cuc chi bng cch bn ra khi th trng ang
hi phc. Tc l khi th trng chuyn sang xu th gim v h mua c phiu vi gi
cao th nay h ch i c hi bn ra vi gi thp hn l mc khng c. Nhng ngi
thng minh sn sng chu hy sinh vi im trnh ri vo tnh th thua l qu ln.

Cng vy, ti th trng con b tt nh u t sn sng tr thm hai ba im thay th

cc c phiu bn ra trc y. Nh vy c mt c trng phn ng i vi th trng con
b tt l gi ch gim n mt mc gii hn ca h tr - v i vi th trng con gu th
t tng gi ch t mc thp nht ca vng khng c.

c. nh gi cng ca h tr - khng c

Nguyn l u tin l khng c trong giai on tng gi phi c p ng ti mi mc

gi bi s lng c phiu tn ng ln trc - s c phiu mua trc ti mc gi
ny v ngi s hu chng mun bn ht ra trnh b l. V vy, khi lng c phiu l
tiu chun u tin nh gi sc mnh ca vng khng c.

Ti mt y m ch c 400-500 c phiu trao tay khng th lm mc khng c i vi t

tng gi sau ny, nhng nu ti y m c khng kh bn c phiu mc hng nghn s to
ra mc cung tim nng sau ny, sau khi gi gim di y trc v sau gi li tng
hng vt qua y trc y.

SHnh bnh hnh hoc tam gic i xung c mt s y bng nhau. Chng ta c th nh
gi s b v mc khng c ny bng cch cng tt c cc giao dch ti cc y ny. Nu
ch c mt y vi khi lng giao dch kh ln th c nhiu kh nng l mc khng
c hn l trng hp c nhiu y vi tng khi lng giao dch bng trng hp trn.

Tiu chun th hai l mc gim gi sau , tc l gi phi tng trong mt khong bao
nhiu t mc y c, l mc ta d kin nh gi khng c. Nu khong cch cng ln
th kh nng mc khng c cng nhiu. V d c phiu bn ra trong giai on gim gi t
30 xung 20, sau ngp ngng ti 20 trong vi ngy, tng ln 24 v sau gim xung
19. Ngi u t mua c phiu gi 20 s khng lo lng v tnh hnh ny. Nu gi bt
u tng t 19 th s c mt t s ngi quan tm n vic bn ra ti 20. Nu gi tt
xung 18 sau tng tr li, th c nhiu ngi hn mun bn ra c phiu ti gi 20. Cn
nu l tng t gi 17 th 20 s l mc khng c.

Nh vy, khng th tm c nhiu c phiu bn ra cung ti y trong khong 20 n

35 nu nh khng c mc gi thp hn 10% di khong trn. Quy tc 10% khng p
dng ng u cho mi c phiu. V d, c phiu c gi 3 n 4 khc vi loi c phiu
gi t 20 n 35.

Mt khc, cn ch n mc gim gi. Nu gi t 20 n 24 gim xung 12 th khng

nhng cc nh u t mua vo vi gi 20 sn sng bn ra vi mc gi , m cc nh
u t mua vi gi 12 cng sn sng bn ra vi gi 20. Nhng nh u t nu mua c
phiu ti gi 18 th khng sn sng bn ra vi gi 20.

Tiu chun th ba nh gi cng ca khng c ti mt y trc y l khong thi

gian di hay ngn tnh t lc xut hin y ny tr i v bn cht ca din bin th trng
sau . V d y ca xu th cp hai hnh thnh trong giai on u ca th trng con b
tt s c mc khng c thp nu sau gi gim trong mt thi gian di mt nm
sau n dn tng ln sau bn nm. Vic bn ra c phiu sau mt hai nm s c nhiu
kh nng hn l vic bn ra c phiu sau bn nm.

Nu vng khng c b tn cng mt ln v sau gi li gim th cng khng c

sau ny s yu i. V mt s c phiu tn ng trc bn ra, do t tn cng th hai
s c t c phiu trong tay c th tung ra khng c li xu th tng gi.

Nh vy, chng ta ra ba tiu chun v cng khng c: khi lng, khong cch v
thi gian. Tuy vy, s suy on ca bn thn ngi u t l nhn t c bit quan trng.

d. nh gi mc gi c th

Trong thc t mua bn chng khon, vic xc nh chnh xc vng h tr v khng c

khng phi d dng. Vn l xt loi th c ch nht trong vic xc nh mc h tr
hoc khng c. i vi cc din bin cp ba th th theo ngy l ngun thng tin duy
nht, v th theo ngy ko di trong mt nm s c ch cho vic xc nh mc h tr v
khng c ca xu th cp hai. Tuy vy, th theo ngy khng cho mt bc tranh ton
cnh v trin vng di hn xc nh mc h tr v khng c ca xu th cp mt v hai.
th theo tun, gm mc gi v khi lng giao dch, ko di trong c mt thi k ca
th trng con b tt v th trng con gu l hu ch i vi vic xc nh mc h tr v
khng c.

Nu ni v xu th chung, th chng l mt cch biu din l tng ca tt c din bin

thc t c th. Nu n l xu th i ln th n bao gm cc t ln xung m mi t mc
ln li cao hn mc i xung trc . V d tng n 10, gim xung 6, tng ln 15,
gim xung 10, tng ln 20. V vy, vic xc nh mc h tr v khng c phi qua kinh
nghim phn tch cc th c th.

e. S din bin ca mt xu th

Gi s c phiu ang xu th th trng con b tt, tng t 12 ln 24, v ti khi

lng bn ra kh ln. Kt qu l xut hin phn ng: c s iu chnh xu th cp hai t 24
xung 18, hoc mt dy cc dao ng nh hnh thnh nn trng thi iu chnh, t 24
xung 21. Tip theo s iu chnh l mt giai on tng gi xut hin, t ti 30 trc khi
vp phi khi lng cung c phiu tp trung. Vy xut hin mt t phn ng mi, hoc
l iu chnh cp ba hoc cp hai. Nu vy th sau mc h tr u? Tt nhin l ti
24, l mc ca nh ln u. Nh vy, trc nh ny lm chc nng khng c, v nay
lm chc nng h tr.
Gi s c xu th cp mt gim gi. V d nh ca xu th cp mt gim t 70 xung 50.
Ti 50 xut hin khng kh bn tm thi c phiu. Ti 50 c khi lng ln c phiu
c giao dch, tip gi tng n 60. Ti 60 nhu cu mua c phiu chm dt, gi gim
v khi lng giao dch tng ti 42. Mt ln sng mua xut hin, v s hi phc t hai
xut hin, gi t mc 50. Mc gi. lm chc nng h tr giai on mt ca xu th cp
mt gim gi by gi chuyn sang lm vai tr khng c giai on hi phc th hai.

NG XU TH

a. ng xu th

Trc y cp nhiu n xu th. xem xt k xu th, v vy, cn tm cch v

ng xu th mt cch c hiu qu nht. C mt nhn xt chung l hu ht cc xu th cp
hai v cp ba hu nh i theo ng thng. Cc ng thng trn ng xu th gim cp
mt thng l ng ni cc y ca cc xu th cp ba. Ngc li, trn ng tng xu th
cp mt ng thng ni cc nh ca xu th cp ba l ng xu th cp mt. Nh vy,
ng thng i ln nu trn ca xu th cp mt ni vi ng thng i xung ca xu th
cp mt l ng c bn ca xu th. C th v thm ng kp xu th cp mt bng cch
ni cc y khc hoc cc nh khc ca xu th cp mt. Gi s xu th cp mt i ln c
th v ng xu th i qua cc y ca xu th. ng thng i qua cc nh ca xu th
cp ba lc c gi l ng thu hoch return line. Vng gia ng thu hoch v
ng xu th c gi l vng knh channels.

b. Cc ng xu th cp hai

Vi xu th chung tng gi, chng ta c cc giai on cp hai tng, tc l ng xu th cp

hai nm trn xu th cp mt tng gi trong th trng con b tt. Xu th cp hai gim gi
nm trong th trng con gu c khc vi xu th cp hai trong th trng con b tt.

ng xu th cp hai gim trong th trng con gu khng c quy lut u n nh i

vi trng hp th trng con b tt.

Gc dc ca ng xu th cp hai thng l ln, c bit trong thi k hong lon c

trng ca giai on hai ca th trng ny. Mt khc, gi c xu hng tt xa khi ng
xu th l ng thng i qua hai nh u tin ca th trng con gu. Gi c c xu hng
gim mt thi gian, ngp ngng mt thi gian ti y, chuyn sang giai on r ngang, v
xu th s khng o chiu i ln cho n khi i qua ng xu th cp mt. Cng v vy
m ng thu hoch t khi c s dng n. Mt c trng na l giai on cui cng
ca th trng con gu, giai on xu th cp hai i xung ln cui cng sau o
chiu ni chung l tun theo quy lut chung mt cch r nt. V vy, khi nhn bit xu th
cp hai i xung theo mt quy lut r nt th l s bo hiu kt thc ca th trng con
gu.

Sau khi th trng con gu i c mt qung thi gian v tri qua giai on bn tho,
th trng i vo giai on t hot ng t giao dch nhng c xu hng gim gi mt cch
c trt t hn. Nu ng xu th cp hai ny gim gi nhng khng qu mc v tip
xc nhiu ln vi cc t tng gi ca xu th cp ba th gi s khng c kh nng gim
t ngt na. Tip vic gi i ln xuyn qua ng xu th cp mt s l tn hiu o
chiu chuyn sang th trng con b tt.

Tip cn th trng OTC

V nhiu nguyn do khc nhau, t iu kin tip cn cho n cc c hi tip nhn thng
tin, nn hiu bit ca chng ta v TTCK cn thiu mt ci nhn ton cc v h thng.
Tht ra, TTCK l chuyn ngnh c qu trnh hin thc vi mt hon cnh rng v su.
Vic hiu r ton cnh gip ta khi nim vn d dng hn. T , khi c c hi tm
hiu chuyn su hoc tip nhn thng tin mi, s theo di, lin lc s c "bi trn"
bng nhy cm, nht l v c ch vn hnh.

Phn I. Bn th trng giao dch chng khon

Khi nim "th trng" l mt khng gian giao dch hay mt h thng giao dch, theo
n lm "h tng" cho vic mua bn CK din ra. Tuy vy, vic mua bn trong TTCK
ch l ng tc thy c kt thc mt hnh vi. Tt c giao dch CK u c s tham gia
ca dn chng, cc cng ty, t chc v Chnh ph, c din ra ti mt trong bn th
trng sau.

Th trng sn giao dch

Th trng sn giao dch (exchange market) l mt th trng c t chc tp trung, c

a im giao dch c nh. CK c mua bn l loi c nim yt ti s giao dch,
vic mua bn c thc hin theo phng thc u gi hai chiu (t hai pha), gia i
din (mi gii) ngi mua v i din ngi bn. C ch th trng ny c minh ho
v chng ta c bit n kh nhiu khi tm hiu v cc s giao dch, c bit l
NYSE (S giao dch chng khon New York).

Th trng phi tp trung

Th trng phi tp trung (over-the-counter - OTC market) l th trng c t chc

khng da vo mt mt bng giao dch c nh nh th trng sn giao dch, m da vo
mt h thng vn hnh theo c ch cho gi cnh tranh v thng lng, gia cc cng ty
CK vi nhau, thng qua mt s tr gip quyt nh nhiu n hiu qu hot ng, l
phng tin thng tin. Ti M, th trng OTC l nh ch ca mt th trng lin cng
ty CK (interdealer market), trong h thng my tnh v in thoi kt ni khong 600
nh kinh doanh CK ton quc vi nhau, gip h d dng lm n vi nhau v cho khch
hng ca h (cc nh u t). C hn 15.000 loi CK khc nhau c ng k giao dch
trn th trng OTC ca Hoa K. Trong khi cng ht s lng CK nim yt ti 6 s
giao dch ca nc ny th cng ch c trn di 4.500 loi CK.
Th trng th ba

Th trng th ba (third market - OTC-listed) l th trng giao dch cc CK nim yt

ti s giao dch nhng theo c ch OTC. Th trng ny c lp ra do yu cu ca cc
nh u t l t chc cn mua bn vi s lng ln, c th gi l "mua s" CK nim yt
(exchange-listed), thng qua thng lng. Cc thng v c thu xp bi cc cng ty
CK l nh to gi ca th trng OTC, cc cng ty ny phi ng k v c php mua
bn l ln CK nim yt. Thng thng th tt c cc CK nim yt u c th c mua
bn theo phng thc ny, nhng lun lun b rng buc phi thng tin cng khai trn h
thng thng tin chnh thc trong thi gian rt ngn, M l trong vng 90 giy sau khi
thc hin.

Th trng th t

to thun li cho cc t chc ti chnh chuyn nghip c iu kin trc tip mua bn
CK cho t chc ca mnh, cc th trng ln c lp ra mt mng giao dch ni b gi l
"instinet" phc v cho vic giao dch cc khi lng ln CK gia h vi nhau. C loi
CK nim yt trn sn hoc loi mua bn OTC u c th em ra giao dch. Cc t chc
tham gia vo mng ny thng l cc ngn hng, cc qu h tng u t, cc i din
qun l qu hu tr, v nhiu t chc khc tu theo quy nh... v h lin h vi nhau trc
tip mua bn qua li nn khng cn n cc nh mi gii. Tuy nhin, bn thn h thng
instinet s ng k vi UBCKNN c ng vai tr nh mt cng ty mi gii v kinh
doanh CK (Broker - Dealer). Cc iu kin v mua bn, xc nhn v thng tin s c
quy nh c th bi lut l CK v cng ty CK ng vai tr iu phi ny.

khng ln ln v d phn bit khi ta quan tm v mt loi th trng, cn xc nh cho

r mt s im quan trng lm cn bn nhn dng.

Phn II. Th trng nim yt tp trung

V tr: th trng nim yt (listed market /exchange market) l th trng c v tr tp

trung, c th l sn giao dch vi cc phng tin v mt bng v trang b nht nh.

C ch gi c: th trng nim yt hot ng trn c s u gi t hai pha (double-

auction). Cc mi gii sn giao dch cng nhau tr gi cnh tranh v s thc hin giao
dch khi c gi tho ng nht cho khch hng u t. ng lc chuyn hng gi :
khi nh mi gii i din cho khch hng thc hin mt giao dch mua chng khon
mt gi cho bn (offer) cao hn gi thc hin trc , th gi th trng s chuyn ln;
trng hp thc hin giao dch bn chng khon cho khch hng, nu mi gii chp nhn
bn vi mt gi rao mua (bid) thp hn gi thc hin trc , th gi th trng s i
xung.

Vai tr ch o th trng: i vi sn giao dch l cc chuyn gia trn sn, h chu

trch nhim phi duy tr th trng n nh v phi lin tc cho gi cc chng khon m
h m nhn. Khi c s mt cn i v cung v cu i vi mt loi chng khon h s
liu cch m can thip, bng cch ng ra mua bn cho chnh ti khon ca h trong
chng mc hoc l bnh n hoc l gi cho th trng lun c mua bn.

Giao dch bn ngoi th trng chnh: theo quy lut, cc nh kinh doanh chng khon
khng c mua tr ring cho mnh, hoc kinh doanh nh t cch ch nhn (principal)
i vi cc chng khon c nim yt, ngoi tr khi h tham gia vo c ch giao
dch ca th trng th 3 (th trng mua bn lng ln cc chng khon nim yt theo
c ch giao dch OTC) . Tt c lnh mua bn ca khch u t s c cc nh mi gii
(cng ty chng khon) thu xp chuyn n sn giao dch thc hin,v tu theo dch v
phc v cho khch, cc nh mi gii s thu mt khon hoa hng.

Th trng phi tp trung (OTC)

V tr: ng nh tn gi, th trng phi tp trung OTC khng c mt khng gian giao dch
tp trung. Th trng ny c cc cng ty chng khon cng nhau duy tr trn phm vi
c mt quc gia hay lnh th. Vic giao dch v thng tin c da vo h thng in
thoi v internet vi s tr gip ca cc thit b u cui.

C ch gi c: th trng OTC vn ng nh mt c ch to gi v duy tr hot ng gi

l "mng li lin cng ty" (interdealer network). Cc nh to gi trong t chc s cnh
tranh gia h vi nhau, lin tc a ra gi rao mua (bid) v gi cho bn (ask). Gi th
trng c tham kho t mng li ny, giao dch s c gt li bng thng lng,
nn ngi ta cn gi y l "th trng thng lng" (negociated market).

ng lc chuyn hng gi: mt khi c nh to gi no mun khuyn khch ngi u

t bn ra th h s a ra (quote) gi rao mua (bid) cao hn. iu ny li ko cc nh to
gi khc bm theo nhp , v lm cho gi c chng khon tng ln. Ngc li khi h
mun hp dn ngi mua mua vo, h s gim gi cho bn (ask) v khi xu th ny lan
qua cc nh to gi khc s lm cho gi c gim xung.

Vai tr ch o th trng: cc nh to gi (Market makers) l nhng ngi a ra gi rao

mua v cho bn cho th trng. Gi tt nht t khch u t c th mua (best ask) v
gi tt nht m h c th bn (best bid) c chn lc ti u trong mt tp hp cho gi
trn h thng chung, gi l gi th trng ni b (inside market). Gi ny c xc nh
chi tng loi chng khon OTC. Cc cng ty chng khon mun to gi cho mt chng
khon OTC no s c t chc ch qun ( M l NASD) yu cu duy tr mt lng
vn ti thiu.

Giao dch bn ngoi th trng chnh: khng ging nh trong th trng tp trung, nhiu
cng ty kinh doanh chng khon c th duy tr lng chng khon OTC tn kho ring
cho mnh ch khng cn phi ng k lm nh to gi mi c. Hoc h cng c th sn
sng t th mua hay bn chng khon OTC cho chnh ti khon ca h bt c lc
no (gi l position trading). Cc cng ty chng khon hot ng trong th trng OTC
ny c th tu chn cch thc hin lnh cho khch hng ca mnh, giao dch t
doanh bng ti khon cng ty, hoc giao dch mi gii hng hoa hng bng cch ch thu
xp mua bn cho ti khon ca khch hng.
Phn III. Vai tr ca nh mi gii chng khon

Mt trong nhng nguyn tc cn bn vn hnh th trng chng khon l nguyn tc

trung gian, th hin r nt nht vi vai tr v hot ng ca cc nh mi gii v kinh
doanh chng khon.

Th trng chng khon hot ng hiu qu mt phn l nh vo s th vai tt ca cc

nh mi gii v kinh doanh chng khon. D hot ng th trng no th nhng nh
chuyn nghip c chn lc ny cng phi ng k v c cp php hnh ngh. Hu
ht cc cng ty chng khon u va c hot ng mi gii va c hot ng kinh doanh
chng khon. Tuy nhin trong giao dch, m bo tnh trung thc, cng bnh v uy tn
ca ngnh, hai hot ng ny c c bit lu t chc v gim st tch bch.

Nh mi gii khng mua bn CK cho mnh

Cc nh mi gii l nhng i din thu xp giao dch cho khch hng v hng hoa hng.
Ngi mi gii khng mua bn chng khon cho mnh, h ch l ngi ni kt v gip
thc hin yu cu ca ngi mua, k bn. Ti sn (chng khon) v tin c chuyn
dch qua li t khch bn sang khch mua. Trong qu trnh nh mi gii khng ng
tn ti sn, gi l khng c v th (position). Trong ting Anh, nh mi gii (broker)
thng c dng ch mt cng ty chng khon hn l ch mt nhn vin mi gii.
Nhn vin mi gii ca mt cng ty chng khon cn c dng ph bin bng t
"registered representative" (i din giao dch) hoc "account executive" (AE) tu theo h
nm u trong mi quan h cng tc. Qun chng u t th gi h bng "customer?s
man" hay "stockbroker".

Mi gii c u nhim hay tha hnh

Trong ting Anh gi l commission broker, l nhn vin ca mt cng ty chng khon
thnh vin ca mt s giao dch. H lm vic hng lng ca cng ty chng khon v
c b tr thc hin cc lnh mua bn cho cc cng ty chng khon, hay khch hng
ca cng ty, trn sn giao dch. V th nn h cng c gi theo mt tn chung khc l
mi gii trn sn (floor broker). Cc lnh mua bn c chuyn n cho cc mi gii
tha hnh ny c th l t vn phng cng ty hay cng c th t cc mi gii i din
(registered representatives).

Nhn y, xin lu vi ngi c mt im rt quan trng, rt d nhm ln, v tng

b nhm ln rt ph bin, k c trong cc ti liu lu hnh rng ri v truyn t ging
dy, theo nhiu ngi thng din t thut ng "commission brokers" l cc "mi
gii n hu hng". T m c cch hiu sai lch v t cch lm vic v quan h v
quyn li i vi v tr ny. Tht ra t "commission" y khng c ngha l "hu hng"
m l "nhim v". Loi "mi gii n hu hng" th thit l nhng ngi m ta s tm hiu
di y.

Mi gii c lp hay "hai la"

Mi gii hai la "two-dollar broker) hay cn gi l cc nh mi gii c lp
(independent broker) chnh l cc nh mi gii lm vic cho chnh h v hng hoa hng
(th lao) theo dch v. H l mt thnh vin t b tin ra thu ch ti s giao dch (sn
giao dch) - ging nh cc cng ty chng khon thnh vin. H chuyn thc thi cc lnh
cho cc cng ty thnh vin khc ca s giao dch. S d c iu ny l v ti cc s giao
dch nhn nhp, lng lnh phi gii quyt cho khch hng ca mt cng ty chng khon
gi ti lm khi qu nhiu, m cc nhn vin mi gii c hu ca cc cng ty ny (cc
commission brokers) khng th lm xu, hoc v l do no h vng mt. Lc cc
cng ty chng khon s "hp ng" vi cc nh mi gii c lp thc hin lnh cho
khch hng ca mnh, v tr cho loi mi gii ny mt khon tin nht nh.

Khi thu, cc nh mi gii c lp c tr c hai la cho mt l trn chng khon

(100 c phn), nn ngi ta gi quen thnh "mi gii hai la". Mi gii c lp cng
c gi chung l mi gii trn sn (floor broker). H ng vai tr khng khc g chc
nng ca mt mi gii tha hnh, ngoi tr t cch c lp ca h, c ngha h khng
phi l nhn vin i din cho bt k mt cng ty chng khon no c.

Phn IV. Vai tr ca nh Kinh doanh chng khon.

S nng ng ca TTCK, kh nng duy tr tnh lin tc thng qua hot ng m ta gi

l t doanh, c phn ng gp tch cc ca cc cng ty kinh doanh chng khon.

Cc nh kinh doanh (nh bun) CK

Mt cng ty CK hnh ngh kinh doanh khi h ng vai tr l ch nhn (principal) ca

lng CK giao dch, tc h mua hay bn bng chnh ti khon (hay tn kho) ca h. Danh
t chuyn mn gi hot ng kinh doanh CK ny l "giao dch c v th" hay c s hu
(position trading). Giao dch c v th ca mt cng ty CK c th c hiu l cng ty
ang trong "t th kim sot" lng CK ang giao dch. Nhm mc ch duy tr mt th
trng trung thc v n nh, cc cng ty thnh vin c chc nng kinh doanh khng
c giao dch vt gi tr trng mc (ti khon) m h ang s hu. Trong TTCK iu
ti k l th thut giao dch lm gi (manipulation) hay cc ng tc nhm nh la
qun chng u t. Lut l CK lun t vn ny thnh u tin hng u cn c
chm sc.
Mt khi cc nh kinh doanh bn CK tn kho ca mnh, h s thu ca khch u t mua
CK mt khon k gi (markup), ch khng phi khon hoa hng.

Mt khon "pht phy" (thut ng mark) gi ln nh vy l khon chnh lch gia gi

cho bn (offer) ti thi im, c tham kho trong h thng cho gi th trng lin
cng ty (interdealer market), v gi thc hin cho khch hng; Gi bao gm khon pht
phy thc hin gi l gi thc (net price). Nh kinh doanh tuyt i khng c
pht biu l h ch thu xp giao dch nu thc t h em chnh CK tn kho ca mnh ra
bn cho khch.

Thc thi lnh cho khch hng

Mt cng ty CK, tu theo chc nng v iu kin cho php, c th tho mn mt lnh ca
khch hng theo phng thc sau y:
Lm trung gin thu xp mua bn, vi t cch l i din ca khch hng, mua bn cho ti
khon ca khch hng.

Lm nh bun CK, bng cch i mua li ca nh to gi, k gi ln thnh gi thc bn, v

bn li cho khch hng.

Nu cng ty kinh doanh CK ang c CK tn kho th c th bn li cho khch hng mt

lng CK tn kho theo lnh t ca khch.

Nghip v hot ng mi gii v kinh doanh CK

Trong cng mt giao dch, cng ty CK hoc ch ng vai tr trung gian hoc ch ng vai
tr bun li CK, nhng tuyt i khng c lp l vai tr - ngha l va lm gi va tnh
mt khon hoa hng cho cng mt thc thi lnh cho khch u t. so snh, ta hy xem
vai tr ca mt loi hot ng v cch hnh x phi tun th.

Phn V. c im nhn dng v c s vn hnh

Th trng OTC ( Over-the- Counter) cho php cc cng ty CK thng lng v giao
dch trc tip vi nhau. Thut ng "over the counter" c ngha l "qua quy" theo cch
din t nguyn thu. Ngy nay, nh s pht trin ca k thut truyn thng v vi x l
th trng OTC hin i thot ly xa khi cc quy v hot ng theo mt c ch c
t chc vi s tr gip v k thut in t rt tinh vi, c kh nng kt ni trn quy m
rng ln gia cc nh mi gii v kinh doanh CK vi nhau.
S khc bit c bn gia th trng OTC v th trng sn giao dch c th ghi nhn nh
sau:

OTC Sn

a im kinh doanh phn tn. a im kinh doanh tp trung.

iu hnh (thng l) do hip hi kinh iu hnh bi s giao dch.
doanh chng khon. Gt gi bng u gi hai chiu.
Gt gi bng thng lng.

Th trng OTC l ni t kn CK giao dch hn th trng sn giao dch. Tuy nhin, CK

giao dch vn phi l loi p ng cc chun mc v c php giao dch i chng. c
bit, y l th trng m nhn vai tr bn ra cc CK pht hnh mi (new issues), k c
chng ch ca cc qu h tng u t (qy m - mutual - cc qu h tng u t ch
bn s cp trong th trng ny, ch khng c mua bn th cp, bi v cc chng ch
ch c th c cc qu ny mua li theo mt c ch ring.
Nh ta bit, CK pht hnh mi gii l loi do cng ty cho bn ban u (giao dch s cp)
huy ng vn. D c th vic mua i bn li (hot ng th cp) ngay lp tc, th v
nguyn tc, cc CK pht hnh nh vy xem nh c trao t tay ca ch th pht hnh,
thng qua cc cng ty CK bo lnh, n tay ngi u t. c im ny tn ti cho n
khi t pht hnh hon tt (thng l 90 ngy). Qu trnh cho bn s cp c da vo
mt gi tham kho ban u (gi l gi IPO - initial public offering price) v thng c
thc hin bn theo mt kt qu cho n (t mua) ca cc nh u t. Do m c ch
u gi hai chiu (double auction), gia i din hai nh u t vi nhau nh trn sn
giao dch, khng th p dng c i vi trng hp pht hnh ln u ra cng chng.

Ti th trng sn giao dch, gi th trng c xc lp da trn kt qu u gi ca mi

gii mua v mi gii bn, vi s can thip iu ho, nu cn, ca cc chuyn gia. Cn
th trng OTC, gi th trng cho bi kt qu rao mua - cho bn cnh tranh (bid - offer
hay ask) lin tc gia cc nh to gi. Cc bo gi (quotations) c a vo v th
hin trn h thng lm bt ra gi tt nht cho th trng

Vic thng lng c gi tt nht do cc cng ty CK, cc nh to gi (market maker)

thc hin, h c th mc c vi nhau trong mt giao dch. Mi thng v c a ra
kho gi gia nhiu nh to gi khc nhau tm gi tt nht (gi thu vo cao hay thp).
Vic thng tin c th bng in thoi, khi mt cng ty nhn c lnh mua hay bn ca
khch hng, h s gi n cc nh to gi m nhn loi CK thng lng gi giao
dch cho khch. Kt qu mua bn cng c quy nh bt buc phi thng tin.

Mua bn trn th trng OTC

Th trng sn giao dch c thun li c bn l thng tin v gi c v CK c mt n

np ph bin trn nhiu phng tin, to d dng khi cn truy cp. iu ny li chng d
dng cht no i vi cc giao dch trn th trng OTC.

y l vn ln v ch ho gii c bng chnh kh nng t chc v qun xuyn, thm

ch bng tt c uy tn ca t chc ch qun iu hnh ( M l NASD). K n phi cn
s tr gip hiu qu ca cc thnh tu v thng tin vi cc phng tin trang b cng hin
i cng tt. Th trng OTC, do vy s cho hiu qu hot ng tu thuc vo kh nng
t chc v ng gp ca h thng thng tin. i vi ngi u t, vic giao dch cng
gn ging nh th trng sn giao dch.

Lnh mua bn ca ngi u t c cc i din hp php (mi gii) ca cng ty chng

khon tip nhn. Tt nhin l cc lnh mua bn cc loi chng khon giao dch trong
th trng phi tp trung. Lnh c chuyn n b phn kinh doanh ca cng ty chng
khon. Nu l mt lnh mua chng hn, th b phn chuyn trch mua bn s lin h vi
mt s nh to gi (cc dealers) thu xp giao dch (mua chng khon) cho khch hng
vi gi cho bn (offer) thp nht.

Cng ty chng khon c th thc hin lnh cho khch hng theo cc hnh thc sau:
H c th thu xp hng hu hng, tng t nh giao dch chng khon nim yt trn
sn, trng hp ny h mua cho ti khon ca khch.

H cng c th mua vo ti khon ca h, k gi ln, ri bn li cho khch hng, theo cn

bn t doanh nu cng ty c chc nng t doanh.

Hoc cng ty c sn chng khon tn kho v mun bn ra, th trng hp ny c xem

l bn "c k gi", ch khng c ni l thu xp "n hu hng". Khon k gi c quy
nh r rng v cht ch, l chnh lch gia gi thc (net price) m khch u t phi
tr so vi gi th trng ni b ti thi im c cc nh to gi nu ra lin tc trong h
thng bo gi (gi l interdealer offering price - ta s tm hiu sau).

Cc cng ty chng khon khng c va n k gi va hng hu hng. Lut l cng

khng cho php cc cng ty kinh doanh chng khon (dealers) kinh doanh (t doanh) cc
loi chng khon nim yt (listed) trn sn giao dch. Ngoi tr c quy nh khc v
vic giao dch vi khi lng ln gia cc t chc (trong th trng th ba - third
market/th trng mua bn chng khon nim yt theo c ch OTC).

V cc th tc chi phi vic mua bn, giao nhn hng v tin... cng c p dng thng
nht (ging nh cho s giao dch) theo lut l v CK v TTCK.

V hng ho,CK mua bn trong th trng OTC, nh ni, l loi "hng hiu" phi qua
ng k (c bit i vi loi c giao dch trn h thng Nasdaq) vi cc chun mc
nht nh ch khng phi l bt k loi no.

Mi cui ngy giao dch, cc nh to gi trong th trng OTC s gi cc gi rao mua

cho bn lin cng ty (interdealer quotations) ca mnh ln c quan tng hp gi th
trng quc gia ni y ph bin thnh n bn. M, cc n bn nh vy c in trn
cc giy mu hng, nn c gi l nhng trang hng (pink sheets), c cc c im ng
lu nh sau:

Cho gi ny phc v ring cho cc chng khon OTC.

Gi c c nu cha hn l gi giao dch tht s thc hin cho khch hng.

Gi nu ny c gi tr gia cc cng ty kinh doanh CK thi (gi l gi c lin cng ty -

interdealer - c ngha cha phi l gi thc hin cho ngi u t l.

Gi nu ny ni chung thng l tu thuc, khng chc chn.

i vi cc CK trn h thng giao dch Nasdaq c k hiu ring (ngay sau tn chng
khon), v n c c ch c bit hn.

K hiu "M" i trc tn chng khon c ngha l "marginable" (chng khon c th mua
bn bng ti khon bo chng - Do ngn hng lin bang quy nh).
L do chnh lu hnh cc "pink sheets" ny l v, M, phn ln cc chng khon
OTC khng iu kin giao dch trn h thng Nasdaq. ng thi, gi c ca cc CK
cng khng th tm thy trn chuyn trang ti chnh ca cc bo. Do cc "pink
sheets" tr thnh mt nhu cu khng th thiu trong th trng OTC ngi quan tm
tham kho.

Mc d vic nu gi trn cc trang thng tin nh vy mang ngha tham kho, cc nh

to gi cung cp cc s liu mc nhn rng gi nu l chc chn cho 100 c phn sn
sng mua, bn. Cc "pink sheets" ny ghi tt c cc gi CKgiao dch trn th trng
OTC ca ngy giao dch hm trc (chm hn mt ngy). Tng t, C quan tng hp
gi ton quc (National Quotation Bureau) cng cng b thng tin v gi tri phiu cng
ty trn cc trang mu vng (yellow sheets).

Do c tnh lch s, s tin ho ca th trng v phng tin truyn thng hin i, ngy
ny cc chng khon OTC khng hn l loi "khng tiu chun nim yt" theo nh
cch nh gi lu v tng thnh np suy ngh trong qu kh. Rt nhiu cng ty ln ni
ln t hn mt thp nin tr li y vn thch duy tr giao dch CK ca h trn th trng
ny. c bit hu ht cc cng ty pht trin trong nn kinh t mi (kinh t tri thc) u c
c phiu giao dch th trng OTC, c th hn l trong th trng qua mng Nasdaq m
ta thng nghe hay c thy.

Phng thc to gi th trng OTC - nhng yu cu i vi nh to gi

Nh to gi, ni chung, l mt cng ty c hot ng kinh doanh chng khon cho ring
mnh (t doanh) v c cng nhn t cch to gi i vi mt s lng chng khon
no . th trng sn giao dch l cc chuyn gia trn sn (specialist) cn trn th
trng OTC, nh to gi l cc nh bun chng khon (dealers) tham gia cung cp gi rao
mua (bid) v cho bn (offer) lin tc cho mt chng khon c th no .
Vic ny c gi l to ra mt gi th trng (thut ng: to make a market) cho chng
khon. Khi cho gi nh vy, h s sn sng thc hin mua hoc bn vi s lng
c nu bng chnh ti khon ca cng ty h.

Khng ging nh th trng sn giao dch, ni m mi chng khon ch c c mt

chuyn gia to gi, trong th trng OTC s lng nh to gi cho mt chng khon c
th khng hn ch v ti thiu phi l hai. Nu trong mt ln cho gi khng ghi s lng
c th, ngi ta hiu nhm rng nh to gi s sn sng mua hoc bn mt l trn (100
c phn) chng khon vi gi c nu. iu ny tr thnh tp qun bt buc, cho nn
ngoi tr c ch nh khc, cc rao mua cho bn ca nh to gi c xem l chc cng
(firm).
Mt cng ty hay c nhn mun lm mt nh to gi i vi mt chng khon no , h
cn phi p ng mt s yu cu ti thiu v tiu chun. Trong , thng c hai iu
kin tin quyt l:

1. Phi ng k v c cng nhn l thnh vin ca t chc ch qun th trng OTC

2. Phi p ng gi tr vn thun ti thiu i vi tng loi chng khon c lm gi,

ng thi duy tr mc sut qu trnh hot ng.
Sau khi c chp nhn t cch lm mt nh to gi, h cn phi m bo mt s chun
mc khi a ra gi c cho cc chng khon m h m nhn. Yu cu c th thng l:

Phi cung cp lin tc gi nu t hi pha mua v bn (two-sided quotations) i vi

chng khon c u nhim to gi duy tr th trng.

Phi sn sng thc hin giao dch t nht mt n v giao dch (thng l mt l trn 100
c phn) vi gi c nu ca mnh.

Phi m bo rng cc gi nu l hp l so vi gi th trng ca chng khon trong

cuc.

Tn trng trit cc gii hn chnh lch ti a cho php.

Bo co hng thng cc d liu giao dch v cc thng tin khc theo quy nh v giao
dch chng khon v yu cu ch qun.

Thng k v bo co lng giao dch (theo ngy) i vi chng khon c to gi.

Mn cn thc hin cc nhim v lin tc trong thi gian lm vic hng ngy.

C ch to gi i vi mt chng khon theo cch cng lc c s tham gia ca nhiu

cng ty, cng vi s tun th nghim chnh cc yu cu trn y, s cung cp cho th
trng mt gi tt nht, m bo s iu ho lin tc v cn thit cho th trng.

Xy dng danh mc u t chng khon

Hiu mt cch khi qut nht th danh mc u t l mt tp hp gm t nht hai loi

chng khon tr ln. Mc ch c bn nht ca vic xy dng v qun l mt danh mc
u t l a dng ho nhm trnh cc khon thua l qu ln

Khi bn ng thi u t vo nhiu loi chng khon khc nhau, s thua l ca mt loi
chng khon ch c tc ng nh n ton b danh mc, thm ch nhiu khi bn c th b
l bng li nhun thu c t cc chng khon khc trong cng mt danh mc .
Tuy nhin, vic hn ch thua l bng cch a dng ho danh mc u t cng c mt ci
gi ca n: bn cng khng th thu c cc khon li nhun ln. Rt t ngi u t c
th thu c khon li nhun cao t vic u t tt c s tin ca h vo mt loi chng
khon tt nht hin c trn th trng. Do , i a s cng chng u t chn hnh thc
u t th hai l gim thiu ho thua l bng cch a dng ho u t. V suy cho cng
th vic t b nhng mn hi ln, bng lng vi nhng khon thu nhp va phi trnh
thua l qu mc l mt ci gi va phi v hon ton hp l. Bi vit ny s hng dn
bn tng bc trong vic xy dng mt danh mc u t ph hp vi c tnh cng nh
mc ch m bn chn.

Bc 1: Xc nh bn l ngi u t tch cc hay th ng?

Khi bt tay vo xy dng danh mc u t, iu quan trng trc tin m bn phi xc

nh l xem mnh thuc dng no: tch cc hay th ng? y l mt vic lm ht sc cn
thit, v n s quyt nh n ton b cch thc u t ca bn sau ny. Ngi u t tch
cc l ngi lun sn sng b ra rt nhiu thi gian v cng sc qun l danh mc u
t ca mnh. Cn ngi u t th ng th ch mun b ra mt khong thi gian ti thiu
cn thit theo di cc khon u t v bng lng vi cc khon li khim tn c c.

Cn lu rng quy m u t l khng quan trng m iu ct yu l bn tiu tn bao

nhiu thi gian v cng sc cho danh mc u t ca mnh. Chng ta c th thy rng a
s cc nh u t u thuc dng th ng, bi v h l nhng ngi khng chuyn
nghip, thiu k nng chuyn su cng nh b cc cng vic hng ngy chim mt qu
thi gian.

Bc 2: Quyt nh c cu ca danh mc u t

iu th hai cn tnh n l t trng c phiu v tri phiu trong danh mc . y l

mt quyt nh mang tnh cht c nhn v tu theo quan im mi ngi. Mt s ngi
khng thch u t qu nhiu vo c phiu, cn mt s khc li khng thch s hu qu
nhiu tri phiu. Cho n nay vn cha c tiu chun c th v t l ny. Hin nay, a s
kin nghing v t l 50/50, tc l 50% s tin ca danh mc c s dng u t
vo c phiu, phn cn li s c s dng mua tri phiu. Nhiu nh t vn ngh
tng t l tri phiu trong danh mc khi ch s hu sp n tui v hu.

Tuy nhin, mt s c nhn khc li c quan im cho rng, trc sc p ca lm pht

cng nh kh nng kim tin s suy gim khi v gi, ch s hu danh mc nn tng dn
t l c phiu theo thi gian. H lp lun l khng nn gim t l s hu c phiu trong
danh mc u t v lng hu v bo him x hi s khng th tng nh lm pht. Chnh
v vy m c phiu l mt trong nhng la chn c u tin hng u chng li nh
hng ca lm pht. Tuy nhin, cng c khi thu nhp do c phiu em li khng theo kp
vi t sut li nhun ca tri phiu cht lng cao. Trong trng hp ny, u t vo cc
tri phiu cht lng cao v dnh mt khon tit kim i ph vi lm pht c
xem l mt bin php kh thi.
Ngoi ra cn mt trng hp khc m chng ta cng cn cp ti, l t trng ca
danh mc u t c cn phi iu chnh theo s bin ng ca th trng khng? Gi s
rng bn ang c trong tay mt danh mc u t vi t l 50/50. Nu th trng c phiu
tng gi v lm cho danh mc ca bn c t l 65% c phiu v 35% tri phiu th bn c
nn bn bt mt s c phiu a danh mc tr v t l 50/50 hay khng? Xung quanh
vn ny vn cn nhiu kin khc nhau nhng nhn chung i a s cc nh u t s
khng bn i c phiu phng trng hp khi c phiu gim gi th danh mc s tr
v mc cn bng 50/50.

Bc 3: a dng ho danh mc u t

1. a dng ha t chc pht hnh. Nu danh mc u t ca bn ch bao gm ton b cc

tri phiu Chnh ph th bn khng cn phi a dng ho chng loi cc ch th pht
hnh, bi v tri phiu Chnh ph hon ton khng c ri ro. Tuy nhin, nu bn mua tri
phiu cng ty, tri phiu a phng hoc c phiu th vic a dng ho ch th pht hnh
l mt vn cn c cn nhc, bi v cc loi chng khon ny lun tim tng mt s
ri ro nht nh. Vn t ra l nn a dng ha n mc no? iu ny cn tu
thuc vo quan im ca mi c nhn. Chng hn nh nu bn mua c phiu ca 20 nh
pht hnh khc nhau v khi mt nh pht hnh chng may b ph sn th danh mc u t
ca bn ch b suy gim 5%. Mi nh u t s t a ra quyt nh cho danh mc u t
ca mnh da vo c tnh bn thn, tim lc ti chnh cng nh mc ri ro m h c
th chu ng.

2. Bn cnh vic a dng ho cc t chc pht hnh, bn cng cn a dng ho cc lnh

vc kinh doanh, a dng ha cc ngun thu hoc c th a dng ho theo v tr a l. Bn
cn ch rng, cng a dng ho th s cng hn ch c ri ro, tuy nhin ng nn a
dng ho qu nhiu v nh vy s tn rt nhiu cng sc qun l v n mt lc no
th danh mc s vt qu tm kim sot ca bn.

* ng dng l thuyt hin i trong qun l danh mc u t

Ti Vit Nam vic ng dng cc l thuyt hin i vo qun l danh mc u t cn l

mt vn kh mi v cha tht s mang tnh chuyn nghip.

Trong qu trnh pht trin ca nn kinh t, tt yu s tn ti cc doanh nghip lm n rt

hiu qu. ng vn d tha ca h s c xu hng chy vo nhng lnh vc u t hp
dn hn. u t chng khon ra i gii quyt nhu cu .

Khi u t vo lnh vc chng khon, nh u t c th u t cng mt lc vo nhiu

sn phm khc nhau ch khng nht thit h phi ph thuc vo mt vi sn phm c
nh nh khi h u t thc. u t chng khon khng ch lm m rng mi trng u
t cho cc nh u t m t thn n len li vo tng ng ngch trong nn kinh t thu ht
u t dng vn cc nh cho n ngun lc di do nht. Ti Vit Nam vic ng dng
cc l thuyt hin i vo qun l danh mc u t cn l mt vn kh mi v cha
tht s mang tnh chuyn nghip.
Tt c cc quyt nh u t u c cn nhc di gc ri ro v t sut sinh li
mong i v nhng tc ng ca chng trn gi chng khon cng nh kt qu ti chnh
cui cng t c trong quyt nh u t. mt s quc gia c th trng chng khon
pht trin, t rt lu nh u t bit p dng nguyn tc khng b trng vo cng mt
r, thng qua m hnh qun l danh mc u t hiu qu kt hp l lun c lin quan
n ri ro v t sut sinh li mong i (M hnh nh gi ti sn vn - CAMP) v l
thuyt nh gi chnh lch (APT) la chn tp hp chng khon hiu qu nht

t c mc tiu ti a ha li nhun ca danh mc, nh u t phi nh gi da

trn hai yu t quan trng: l ri ro v t sut sinh li. Tt c cc quyt nh u t u
da trn hai yu t ny v nhng tc ng ca chng i vi vn u t.

Ri ro c xem nh l kh nng xut hin cc khon thit hi v ti chnh. Nhng chng

khon no c kh nng xut hin nhng khon l ln c xem nh c ri ro cao hn
chng khon c kh nng xut hin nhng khon l thp hn. V vy, ri ro c m t
bng s bin i ca cc t sut sinh li ca chng khon trong thi k nghin cu.

T sut sinh li ca chng khon chu tc ng ca rt nhiu yu t ri ro, nhng yu t

ny c th b trit tiu hon ton thng qua vic kt hp danh mc u t hiu qu ca
nhiu chng khon c gi l ri ro khng h thng, phn li nhun mong i b p
cho loi ri ro ny chnh l phn b ri ro chng khon bx (Xm Xf). Loi ri ro khng
th trit tiu c gi l ri ro h thng, phn li nhun mong i tng ng vi loi ri
ro ny chnh l t sut sinh li phi ri ro Xf.

M hnh APT

Vo thp nin 1970 S.A Ross trin khai m hnh APT (Arbitrage pricing theory) trong
vic mua bn cc loi chng khon hng ho khi lng ln, ngoi t gia cc th trng
hng chnh lch gi..L thuyt APT cho rng t sut sinh li ca chng khon l mt
hm s tuyn tnh ca tp hp cc yu t c kh nng xy ra ri ro n t sut sinh li ca
chng khon.

CAPM (Capital asset pricing model) c pht trin trong u thp k 60. Thay th cho
CAPM, l thuyt kinh doanh chnh lch gi (APT) c pht trin trong thi gian gn
y. V mc ch ca nh u t, nhng khc nhau gia hai m hnh xut pht t cch x
l ca APT i vi s ph thuc gia t sut sinh li ca cc chng khon. APT cho rng
t sut sinh li ca chng khon c to bi mt s cc nhn t ca ton ngnh v ton
th trng. Mi tng quan gia mt cp chng khon xy ra khi hai chng khon ny b
nh hng bi cng mt hay nhiu nhn t. Ngc li, CAPM cho php cc chng khon
tng quan ln nhau, n khng ch r cc nhn t to ra s tng quan ny.
C APT v CAPM hm mi quan h thun chiu gia t sut sinh li k vng v ri ro.

Theo kin (c phn hi thin lch) ca chng ti, APT cho php mi quan h ny c
pht trin theo mt cch thc trc quan ring bit. Ngoi ra APT nhn nhn ri ro mt
cch khi qut hn ch khng thun ty l lch chun hay beta ca chng khon tng
ng vi danh mc th trng. V vy chng ti a ra cch tip cn ny nh l mt s
thay th cho CAPM.
Thnh phn ca m hnh: Thng tin c cng b, s t bin, v t sut sinh li mong
i.

c th hn, gi s chng ta xem xt t sut sinh li c phiu ca cng ty F. iu g s

xc nh t sut sinh li ca c phiu ny trong thng ti?
T sut sinh li ca bt k c phiu no giao dch trn th trng ti chnh cng bao gm
2 phn. Phn th nht gi l t sut thng thng hay t sut k vng ca c phiu m
cc c ng trn th trng tin on hay mong i. T sut ny ph thuc vo tt c cc
thng tin gn lin vi c phiu m cc c ng tip cn c, v n s dng tt c nhng
hiu bit ca chng ta v nhng yu t s tc ng ln c phiu vo thng tip theo. Phn
th hai c gi l t sut sinh li ri ro hay khng chc chn ca c phiu. Thnh phn
ny do nhng thng tin c h m trong thng. Khng th lit k ht nhng thng tin
ny, v d:

- Tin tc v nghin cu mi ca cng ty.

- S liu thng k v GNP c chnh ph cng b.
- Pht hin sn phm cng loi ca i th cnh tranh.
- Thng tin v s tng trng doanh s ca cng ty cao hn d kin.
- S st gim t bin ca li sut.

Cn thn trng khi nghin cu nhng tc ng ca nhng thng tin k trn hay nhng tin
tc khc i vi t sut sinh li. n c nh chnh ph phi cung cp s liu v GNP hay
t l tht nghip cho thng ny, nhng hin nay cc c ng nm c n mc no
v nhng thng tin trn? Chc chn rng vo u thng cc c ng ch c th tin on
GNP thng ny l bao nhiu. Trong phm vi tin on ca cc c ng v cc cng b
ca chnh ph th nhng tin on ny l nhn t ca t sut sinh li mong i vo u
thng. Mt khc, mc cc cng b bt ng ca chnh ph v trong phm vi tc ng
n li nhun ca c phiu, cc cng b s l mt phn ca U, phn khng th tin liu
ca t sut sinh li.

Bt k mt cng b no c th c chia lm 2 phn, phn d on hay mong i v

phn t bin: Cng b = Phn mong i + t bin

Phn mong i ca bt k mt cng b no l mt phn ca thng tin m th trng s

dng to lp t sut sinh li k vng ca c phiu (R). Phn t bin ca thng tin tc
ng n t sut sinh li khng mong i ca c phiu (U)...

Cn lu rng ri ro trong mt danh mc ln v phn tn ha ng mc l cc ri ro h

thng bi v ri ro phi h thng b phn tn ha hon ton. C mt s ngm hiu rng
khi mt c ng s dng phn tn ha y quan tm n vic nm gi mt c phiu
no th anh ta c th b qua ri ro phi h thng ca chng khon

Cc danh mc v cc m hnh nhn t

Chng ta hy xem iu g s xy ra vi mt danh mc c phiu khi mi c phiu thnh
phn tun theo m hnh mt nhn t. bn lun, chng ta s chn mt thng k tip v
quan st t sut sinh li. L ra chng ta cng c th s dng mt ngy hay mt nm hay
mt khong thi gian bt k. Tuy nhin nu l khong thi gian nm gia nhng quyt
nh chng ta nn chn khong thi gian ngn, mt thng l khung thi gian l tng cn
chn.

Chng ta s to nhng danh mc t n c phiu, v s dng m hnh mt nhn t o

lng ri ro h thng. Do c phiu th i trong danh sch s c t sut sinh li l
Ri = Ri + b iF + e (1)

trong i i din cho c phiu th i. Ch rng yu t F khng c ch s di. Nhn t

i din cho ri ro h thng c th l s t bin trong GNP, hay chng ta c th s dng
m hnh th trng v chnh lch gia t sut sinh li ca S&P 500 v k vng ca chng
ta v t sut ny, RS&P500 - RS&P500 lm nhn t. Trong c hai trng hp, nhn t
c chn p dng cho tt c cc c phiu.
bi c t ch s di bi v n th hin mt cch n nht m nhn t tc ng n c
phiu. tm tt bn lun ca chng ta, nu bng khng, t sut sinh li ca c phiu th
i s l : Ri = Ri + ei

Vi ngha rng t sut sinh li ca c phiu th i khng b tc ng bi nhn t, F, nu

bi bng khng. Nu bi dng nhng bin ng tng gim ca nhn t s lm tng gim t
sut sinh li ca c phiu i. Ngc li nu bi m t sut li nhun v nhn t s vn ng
ngc chiu.

By gi chng ta hy xy dng mt danh mc trong mi c phiu tun theo m hnh

mt nhn t v xem iu g s xy ra. Cho Xi l t l chng khon i trong danh mc. Do
X th hin phn u t ca chng ta vo mi c phiu nn s c tng s l 100% hay 1.
Ta c:
X1 + X2 +......+ XN =1

Chng ta bit rng t sut sinh li ca danh mc bng trung bnh trng s ca cc t sut
sinh li ca tng chng khon cu thnh danh mc. Ta c th vit li theo i s nh sau:
RP = X1R1 + X2R2 + X3R3 + ..... XNRN (2)
Chng ta thy trong phng trnh (1) mi c phiu li b tc ng bi c nhn t F v
ri ro khng h thng ei. Do thay th mi Ri t phng trnh (1) vo phng trnh (2)
ta c:
Rp = X1(R1 + b1F + e1) + X2 (R2 + b2F + e2) + X3(R3 + b3F + e3) + ... ... + XN(RN +
bNF + eN) (3) .

Phng trnh cho chng ta thy rng t sut sinh li ca danh mc c xc nh bi ba

tp hp cc tham s:
1. T sut sinh li k vng ca mi chng khon thnh phn, Ri
2. Tch s gia Beta v nhn t F, biF
3. Ri ro phi h thng ca mi chng khon, ei.
Chng ta c th vit li phng trnh (3) theo tp hp 3 tham s nh sau:
Rp = X1R1 + X2R2 + X3R3 + ...... + XNRN
+ (X1b1 + X2b2 + X3b3 +......+ XNbN)F
+ X1e1 + X2e2 + X3e3 + .......+ XNeN (4)

Phng trnh tuy kh di dng nhng d hiu. Hng u tin l trung bnh trng s t sut
sinh li k vng ca mi chng khon. Cc phn t trong ngoc n ca hng th hai l
trung bnh trng s cc beta ca cc chng khon. S trung bnh ny c nhn vi nhn
t F. Hng th ba biu hin trung bnh trong s ri ro phi h thng ca cc chng khon.

Cc danh mc v s phn tn ri ro

Do cc nh u t thng cm gi cc danh mc phn tn ha ri ro nn phng trnh (4)

s nh th no trong trng hp mt danh mc ln hay phn tn ha ri ro. Mc d chng
ta ang ni n u t chng khon khng phi may ri nh tr chi quay s nhng mt
s nguyn l chung vn c p dng. Mi chng khon c ri ro phi h thng ring
trong s t bin khng tng quan vi s t bin ca chng khon khc. Bng cch
u t chia nh trong cho mi chng khon, ri ro phi h thng trung bnh s tin n
khng i vi mt danh mc ln. Cho d hng th ba s trit tiu hon ton trong mt
danh mc ln, khng c g bt thng i vi hng th nht v hng th hai.

Hng th nht vn l trung bnh trong s t sut sinh li k vng ca cc chng khon
c chn vo danh mc. Do khng c s t bin no hng th hai nn chng ta
khng th phn tn ha nhm trit tiu hng ny. Cc phn t trong ngoc n ca hng
th hai vn l trung bnh trng s ca cc beta. Chng vn khng b trit tiu khi chng ta
tng s lng cc chng khon. Bi v nhn t F khng b nh hng bi s gia tng cc
chng khon trong danh mc nn hng th hai khng th b trit tiu.

Ti sao hng th ba b trit tiu trong khi hng th hai th khng mc d c hai hng u
biu hin s khng chc chn? im mu cht l c nhiu ri ro phi h thng hng th
3. Do bi nhng ri ro ny c lp vi nhau nn tc ng ca phn tn ha cng ln khi
chng ta chn thm nhiu chng khon vo danh mc. Danh mc ny cng t ri ro hn
v t sut sinh li tr nn chc chn hn. Tuy nhin ri ro h thng tc ng n mi
chng khon do n nm ngoi ngoc n trong hng th hai. Do nh u t khng th
trnh c nhn t ny khi u t vo nhiu chng khon nn s phn tn ha khng th
din ra trong hng ny.

Cn lu rng ri ro trong mt danh mc ln v phn tn ha ng mc l cc ri ro h

thng bi v ri ro phi h thng b phn tn ha hon ton. C mt s ngm hiu rng
khi mt c ng s dng phn tn ha y quan tm n vic nm gi mt c phiu
no th anh ta c th b qua ri ro phi h thng ca chng khon . Cc c phiu
cng nh mt danh mc khng c ri ro phi h thng. Cng nh chng ta khng ni rng
ri ro phi h thng s khng tc ng g n t sut sinh li ca chng. C phiu lun c
ri ro phi h thng v t sut sinh li thc t ca n ph thuc vo ri ro phi h thng.
Tuy nhin do ri ro ny trit tiu ln nhau trong mt danh mc c phn tn ng mc
cc c ng c th b qua ri ro phi h thng ny khi h quan tm n vic c hay khng
chn mt c phiu vo danh mc. Do nu cc c ng b qua ri ro phi h thng ch
cn ri ro h thng ca mt c phiu c lin h vi t sut sinh li ca n.

Mt danh mc ln, phn tn khng c ri ro phi h thng bi v ri ro phi h thng ca

mi chng khon c phn tn hon ton. Gi nh c chng khon danh mc
th trng c phn tn ng mc v khng c chng khon no c t l p o trn th
trng, danh mc ny c phn tn hon ton v khng c ri ro phi h thng. Ni cch
khc, danh mc th trng c tng quan hon ton vi nhn t n, ngha l danh mc
th trng l phin bn to hoc nh hn v quy m ca nhn t. Sau khi m phng vi t
l thch hp chng ta c th xem danh mc th trng nh l nhn t.

Trong qun l danh mc u t M hnh nh gi chng khon vn v l thuyt kinh

doanh chnh lch gi CAPM v APT l hai m hnh c th thay th ln nhau ca ri ro v
t sut sinh li. Tht quan trng nu ta quan tm n s khc nhau gia hai m hnh c v
l lun ln ng dng trong thc t.

Cc c tnh ca c phiu ngoi vic c s dng lm nn tng cho vic c lng t

sut sinh li k vng chng cn c s dng rng ri nh l mt cch m t phong cch
qun l vn u t. V d mt danh mc c t s P/E vt mc trung bnh ca th trng
c th c m t nh danh mc P/E cao hay danh mc c phiu tng trng.

Khc nhau v l lun

M hnh CAPM mang n cho chng ta l thuyt v nhng tp hp hiu qu. Cch hnh
x ny bt u t trng hp ca hai chng khon ri ro cho n trng hp nhiu chng
khon v kt thc khi mt chng khon phi ri ro c kt hp vi nhiu chng khon
ri ro c gi tr rt ln v mt trc gic. Cch trnh by ny khng d g t c i vi
APT.

Tuy nhin, APT cng c mt li im i trng. M hnh cng thm cc yu t cho n

khi ri ro phi h thng ca bt k mt chng khon khng tng quan vi ri ro phi h
thng ca mi chng khon cn li. Vi cng thc ny, n d dng c ch ra rng (1)
ri ro phi h thng gim u (v cui cng trit tiu) khi s lng cc chng khon trong
danh mc tng nhng (2) ri ro h thng khng tng. iu ny cng c ch ra trong
CAPM mc d v mt trc gic c m nht hn do cc ri ro phi h thng c th tng
quan ln nhau gia cc chng khon.

Khc nhau trong ng dng

Mt trong nhng li th ca APT l n c th x l a nhn t trong khi CAPM b qua

chng. Mc d rt nhiu cc trnh by ca chng ti trong chng ny tp trung vo m
hnh mt nhn t nhng m hnh a nhn t c l phn nh thc t nhiu hn. C ngha
rng ta phi ly ra t cc nhn t ca ton th trng v ton ngnh trc khi ri ro phi h
thng ca mt chng khon tng quan vi ri ro phi h thng ca cc chng khon
khc. dng a nhn t ca APT, mi quan h gia t sut sinh li v ri ro c th c
biu hin nh sau:

R = RF + (R1 - RF) b1 + (R2 - RF) b2 + (R3 - RF) b3 + ...... + (RK - RF) bK ( 5)

Trong phng trnh ny b1 k hiu cho beta ca chng khon ng vi nhn t th nht,
b2 k hiu cho beta ca chng khon ng vi nhn t th hai v tip din nh vy. V d
nu nhn t th nht l GNP th b1 l beta GNP ca chng khon. K hiu l t sut sinh
li k vng ca chng khon (hay danh mc) m c beta ng vi nhn t th nht l 1 v
c beta ng vi cc nhn t khc bng 0.

Do th trng b p cho ri ro nn (R1-RF) s dng trong trng hp bnh thng.

Phng trnh ny th hin t sut sinh li k vng ca chng khon lin quan n beta
ca chng khon tng ng vi mi nhn t. ngha ca phng trnh (5) rt n gin.
Mi nhn t i din cho mt ri ro khng th phn tn ha hon ton. Beta ca chng
khon tng ng vi mt nhn t cng cao th ri ro ca chng khon phi gnh chu
cng cao. Phng trnh trn th hin t sut sinh li l tng ca li sut phi ri ro cng
vi phn n b cho mi loi ri ro m chng khon phi gnh chu.
Do rt nhiu nhn t xut hin APT c kh nng tim n o lng t sut sinh li k vng
chnh xc hn CAPM. Tuy nhin nh chng ti cp ta khng th xc nh d dng
u l nhn t thch hp. Cc nhn t ca v d trn c s dng v c hai l do thun
tin v d hiu. Chng khng c suy ra t l thuyt.
Cch tip cn thc nghim i vi nh gi chng khon

Cc m hnh thc nghim CAPM v APT khng lm gim i cht no cc m hnh v

cc phng php s dng trong thc t o lng t sut sinh li k vng ca chng
khon. C CAPM v APT l nhng m hnh da vo ri ro. Mi m hnh o lng ri ro
ca chng khon bng beta ca n tng ng vi mt nhn t h thng v lun gii rng
t sut sinh li k vng phi t l vi beta. Mc d chng ta nhn thy iu ny c mt
sc ht hin nhin v c nn tng vng chc v l thuyt, nhng vn cn nhng cch tip
cn khc.

Hu ht cc cch tip cn c th c gp chung li di mt tn gi chung l nhng

phng php tham s hay thc nghim. Thut ng thc nghim cp n mt thc t
rng nhng cch tip cn ny t da vo cc l thuyt v s vn ng ca th trng ti
chnh m ch n thun da vo cc trng thi lp li v cc lin h trong qu kh ca d
liu th trng. Trong cc cch tip cn ny nh nghin cu nh r nhng tham s hay
cc c tnh lin i vi cc chng khon ri kho st trc tip d liu nhm tm mi lin
h gia nhng c tnh ny v t sut sinh li k vng. n c nh c rt nhiu cc
nghin cu c thc hin v mi lin quan gia t sut sinh li k vng ca cng ty
v quy m ca n. C ng hay khng nhng cng ty nh c t sut li k vng cao hn
nhng cng ty ln? Nhng nh nghin cu kho st cc t s ti chnh khc nhau nh
t s gia gi c phn v thu nhp gi li, P/E, v t s c quan h gn gi l t s gia
gi tr th trng v ca chng khon v gi tr s sch ca cng ty, M/B. T y c th
c mt tranh lun rng nhng cng ty vi t s P/E hoc M/B thp b nh gi thp v c
th c k vng c t sut sinh li cao hn trong trng lai.
Nhm s dng cc tip cn thc nghim xc nh t sut sinh li k vng, chng ta
phi c lng phng trnh sau:
Ri= RF + kP/E (P/E)i + kM/B(M/B)i + ksize(size)p
trong l t sut sinh li k vng ca cng ty i, v cc h s k l h s tng quan m
chng ta c lng t d liu ca th trng, Ch rng y l mt dng tng t
phng trnh trn trong cc c tnh ca cng ty ng vai tr beta v h s k trong vai
tr nhn t chnh lch t sut sinh li ca danh mc.
Khi chng ta kim chng s liu , cc phng thc tip cn tham s t ra vn hnh rt tt.
Tht vy, khi so snh gia vic s dng cc tham s v vic s dng beta d on t
sut sinh li k vng cc tham s nh P/E v M/B t ra hu hiu hn. C nhiu gii thch
kh d cho cc kt qu ny, v vn vn cha c lun gii hon ton. Nhng nh ph
bnh v cch tip cn thc nghim rt thn trng i vi ci m h gi l s o bi d
liu.

Nhng tham s m nh nghin cu s dng thng c chn bi v chng c bit

c lin quan n t sut sinh li. Chng ta thy rng bt k nhng mi lin h no nh
vy l do ngu nhin nhng nu bn tm kim lu v c cc chn la bn c th tm
thy ci m thm ch nh khng phi nh vy. N cng kh ging vi vic nhn ln cc
m my. Sau mt lc bn s thy cc m my trng ging bt k th g bn mun nh
anh h, gu, hay bt k th g, nhng tt c nhng g bn ang lm l gi l o bi d
liu. Khng cn phi ni nhng nh nghin cu cc vn trn bo v cng vic ca h
bng tranh lun rng h khng h o bi d liu v h rt cn thn trnh nhng cm
by qua vic chi mi vo d liu xem vic g s xy ra.

D nhin, nh l mt vn v l thuyt thun ty, v bt k ai trn th trng c th d

dng truy tm c t s P/E ca cc cng ty, anh ta chc chn s khng mong i nhng
cng ty vi P/E thp hot ng tt hn nhng cng ty c t s ny cao n gin ch v cc
cng ty ny b nh gi thp. Trong mt th trng hon ho, nhng tnh ton ca cng
chng v nh gi thp s nhanh chng b ph v v khng trong mong c th tn ti.

C l gii php tt hn cho s thnh cng ca phng thc tip cn thc nghim nm
s tng hp gia cc cch tip cn da vo ri ro v bn thn phng thc thc nghim.
Trong th trng hon ho, ri ro v t sut sinh li c lin h vi nhau, do c th cc
tham s hoc nhng c tnh th hin lin quan n t sut sinh li cng ng thi l
cng c o lng ri ro tt hn. V d, nu gi s chng ta tm thy rng cc cng ty vi
P/E thp li hot ng tt hn cc cng ty c P/E cao v iu ny thm ch ng cho cc
cng ty c cng beta, th chng ta c th c t nht hai cch gii thch. Mt l, chng ta c
th n thun vt b cc l thuyt da trn ri ro v chng khng ng. Hn na chng ta
c th tranh lun rng cc th trng khng hon ho v mua c phiu ca cng ty c P/E
thp cho chng ta c hi kim li nhiu hn t sut sinh li d kin. Hai l, ta c th
tranh lun rng c hai cch nhn u ng v P/E tht s ch l cch tt hn o lng
ri ro h thng hn l c lng beta trc tip t d liu.
Cc kiu danh mc
Cc c tnh ca c phiu ngoi vic c s dng lm nn tng cho vic c lng t
sut sinh li k vng chng cn c s dng rng ri nh l mt cch m t phong cch
qun l vn u t. V d mt danh mc c t s P/E vt mc trung bnh ca th trng
c th c m t nh danh mc P/E cao hay danh mc c phiu tng trng. Tng t,
mt danh mc c hnh thnh vi P/E trung bnh thp hn nhiu so vi P/E ca mt ch
s th trng c th c coi l danh mc P/E thp hay danh mc c gi.

nh gi mt nh qun l danh mc lm vic tt ra sao, thng hiu qu ca anh ta

c so snh vi kt qu ca vi ch s c bn. V d t sut sinh li danh mc ca mt
nh qun l mua c phiu mnh gi ln ca cc cng ty M c th c so snh vi ch
s S&P 500. Trong trng hp ny ch s S&P 500 c xem l ct mc so snh vi
nhng hiu qu c tnh ton. Tng t nh vy hiu qu ca mt nh qun l quc
t c th c so snh vi ch s ca cc c phiu quc t. Trong vic chn la mc so
snh thch hp cn thn trng xc nh ct mc so snh ch cha ng nhng loi c
phiu m nh qun l hng n nh l i din cho phong cch ca anh ta v c sn
mua. Mt nh qun l c bo rng khng mua bt k chng khon no c trong ch
s S&P 500 th khng c l do g b so snh vi ch s ny.

Hn na cc nh qun l khng ch b so snh vi ch s m cn vi nhng nhm cc nh

qun l tng ng. Hiu qu ca mt qu u t nh qung co l mt qu tng
trng c th c so snh vi hiu qu ca mt mu ln cc qu tng t. n c nh
hiu qu trong mt giai on thng c phn chia thnh bn nhm. Cc qu thuc
nhm 25% trn cng trong phn t th nht, 25% k tip nm phn t th hai, 25%
k n nm phn t th ba, v nhm cc qu c hiu qu km nht nm phn t cui
cng. Nu mt qu c xem xt c hiu qu nm trong nhm phn t th hai th ta gi
nh qun l l nh qun l cp phn t th hai.Cng ging nh vy, chng ta gi mt
qu mua c phiu c M/B thp l qu c gi v s so snh hiu qu ca n vi mu cc
qu c gi tng ng. Cc cch tip cn ny v vic o lng hiu qu l tng i
mi, v chng l mt phn ca nhng c gng tch cc v th v nhm tinh lc kh nng
xc nh v s dng cc k nng u t ca chng ta.

Xc nh gi tr c phiu bng chit khu dng c tc

Xc nh gi tr ni ti c phiu l mt vn rt phc tp v phi mt nhiu thi gian

nghin cu c th hiu ng v p dng mt cch hiu qu trong u t.

Trong bi vit ny tc gi mun gii thiu nhng vn cn bn ca phng php xc

nh gi tr ni ti (Intinsic value) c phiu theo chit khu dng c tc (Dividend
Discount Model-DDM), mt phng php ph bin trn th gii trong vic xc nh gi
tr c phiu. Trc tin chng ta s tho lun mt s khi nim c bn lin quan.

1. Li v ri ro
 ti a ha gi c phiu, cc gim c ti chnh cng nh nh u t cn hiu v xc
nh c hai yu t c bn: li (return) v ri ro (risk).

Li ca mt khon u t trong mt khong thi gian c tnh bi tng s tin c

phn phi trong k cng vi cc khon tng gi tr trong k, tt c chia cho gi tr u t
u k. V d: Cng ty Hoana mun xc nh li ca c phiu REE m Cng ty mua 1
nm trc vi gi 38.000 ng v gi hin ti l 82.000 ng. Trong k, Cng ty nhn
c c tc (sau thu) l 1.400 ng. T l li u t c phiu REE trong nm l bao
nhiu?

K = (1.400 + (82.000 - 38.000))/38.000 = 119%

Ri ro l kh nng sy ra vic l ti chnh hay chnh thng hn l s bin ng ca cc

khon li l gn lin vi mt ti sn. V d, mt tri phiu chnh ph 1 triu ng, m
bo cho ngi s hu n mt khon li 80.000 ng sau 1 nm m coi nh khng c ri
ro, v khng c s bin ng ca khon li. Mt khon u t c phiu thng 1 triu
ng, trong cng khong thi gian nh trn c th kim c khon li bin ng t 0
n 200.000 ng, n rt ri ro, v s bin ng ln ca li ca c phiu. Mt khon li t
ti sn gn chc chn hn, t c s bin ng hn v do vy ri ro t hn.

o lng ri ro: lch chun (Standard deviation) l ch s thng k ph bin ch

mc ri ro ca mt ti sn; n o lng s phn tn xung quanh gi tr mong mun
(expected value), gi tr li ca ti sn m n c kh nng xy ra ln nht.

2. Phng php nh gi ti sn vn theo li v ri ro/The Capital Asset Pricing Model

(CAPM)

C bn ca thuyt ny l mi lin h gia ri ro v li cho tt c cc ti sn. Phng trnh

c bn ca CAPM l:

Ks = Rf + [bs x (Km-Rf)]

Trong :

+ Ks= T l li yu cu trn ti sn s;
+ Rf = T l li khng c ri ro (risk- free of interest): thng c ly bng t l li tri
phiu chnh ph ngn hn 3 thng;
+ Rf = K* + IP = T l li sut thc + T l lm pht c tnh;
Nu t l lm pht c tnh nm 2006 ca ng Vit Nam l 6%, t l li sut thc l 2%
th t l li khng c ri ro l Rf = 2% + 6% = 8%.
+ bs = H s ri ro beta: Thc o lin quan n ri ro m khng th trit tiu t vic a
dng ha u t. Mt ch s ch mc thay i li ca mt ti sn trc s thay i li
th trng. Nu li ca mt c phiu bng mt na so vi li th trng, th bs = 0,5. N
c tnh s thay i bng 0,5 % ca 1% thay i trong li ca danh mc th trng. Nu
mt c phiu c 2 ln thay i so vi th trng (b =2) s mong i 2% thay i li ca
n cho 1% thay i li ca danh mc th trng. H s ri ro beta ca qu kh cho cc c
phiu c th tnh c bng khoa hc thng k. cc nc thng c cc ti liu cng
b cng khai v h s bs ny. Lu rng, h s ri ro qu kh c th khng ng cho
tng lai.
+ Km = Li th trng (Market return) l li trn ton b cc chng khon c lu hnh;
+ Km-Rf = T l thng ri ro (Risk Premium) l phn thng m nh u t phi nhn
c cho vic chp nhn ri ro bnh qun lin quan n cc danh mc ti sn u t ca
th trng.

Theo Stocks,Bonds, Bills & Inflation, 2001 year book (Chicago: Ibboston Associates Inc.,
2001, li, lch chun v t l thng ri ro ca cc khon u t chng khon t 1926-
2000 trn TTCK NewYork nh sau: (Xem bng 1)

V d: Cng ty X mun xc nh t l li yu cu trn ti sn, c phiu HAS m chng c

h s beta, ch s ri ro ti sn l bh =1,2. T l li khng ri ro l Rf = 8% (= 2%+6%);
Li ca cc c phiu trn th trng l Km = 15%. Thay vo cng thc trn ta c:

Kh = Rf + [bh x (Km-Rf)] = 8% + [1,2 x (15%-8%)] = 8% +8,4% =16,4%

Nhng thay i trong vic khng mun ri ro (Risk aversion): nh u t khng mun ri
ro (kinh t, chnh tr, x hi), h yu cu tng li khi cc ri ro tng ln.

Nhng thay i trong d on lm pht: gi s hin nay do gi xng du tng mnh, lm

pht tng thm 2% so vi d on ban u l 6%. Kt qu tt yu l tt c cc t l li
cng tng tng ng 2%. Trong trng hp , Rf1 = 10% (tng t 8% ln 10%), Km1 =
17% (tng t 15% ln 17%) Thay vo cng thc trn ta c:

Kh1 = 10% + [1,2 x (17%-10%)] = 10% + 8,4% = 18,4%

So snh Kh = 16,4% v Kh1 = 18,4%, ta thy s thay i 2% trong li yu cu ca ti sn

Kh ng bng thay i trong t l

3. Phng php chit khu dng c tc (Dividend Discount Model)

Gi tr c phiu thng l gi tr hin ti (present value) ca tt c cc dng tin c tc

tng lai m n hy vng c cung cp trong ton b thi gian tng lai v hn nh ca
n. Mc d nh u t c th kim li bng vic bn c phiu vi gi cao hn gi mua
ban u, nh u t thc s bn ci g? l bn quyn i vi cc khon c tc trong
tng lai. Vi cc c phiu m n khng hy vng c tr c tc trong tng lai thy
trc c, nhng c phiu ny c gi tr i vi cc c tc trong tng lai xa t kt qu
ca vic bn cng ty hay thanh l cc ti sn ca n. Do vy t gc xc nh gi tr,
ch c cc khon c tc l lin quan. Phng trnh c bn xc nh gi tr c phiu l:
(Bng 2)

Trong :
+ P: gi tr c phiu thng;
+ Dt: c tc mi c phiu hy vng nhn c cui nm t;
+ Ks: t l li yu cu trn c phiu thng (xem cch tnh phn 2 - CAPM);
+ Dn /(1+Ks)n l gi tr hin ti ca c tc nhn c cui nm th n. V d D1/(1+Ks) 1
l gi tr hin ti ca c tc s nhn c cui nm th 1 vi t l chit khu l ks%.

Ti sao phi chit khu gi tr tng lai v gi tr hin ti? Bi nguyn tc gi tr thi gian
ca ng tin. Tin ra tin, mt ng tin nhn c ngy hm nay c gi tr hn mt
ng tin nhn c ngay mai.

Theo phng php nh gi ny, yu cu d on tt c cc khon c tc trong tng lai.

C ba loi c bn t l tng trng c tc: khng tng, tng c nh v tng thay i.
n gin, chng ta xem m hnh c tc tng c nh hng nm.

M hnh tng c nh (Constant-Growth Model) cn thng c gi l Gordon Model:

(Xem bng 3)

Trong :
+ D1 l c tc tr vo cui nm th 1. D1 = D0 x (1+ g);
+ Ks: t l li yu cu trn c phiu thng (xem cch tnh phn 2 - CAPM);
+ g: t l tng trng c nh hng nm ca c tc mi c phiu;

Vic xc nh ng t l g l iu khng n gin, v l s c tnh cho tng lai. Rt

nhiu cng ty tr c tc hng nm c nh bng 12-18% mnh gi, cho d cng ty c li
ln hn rt nhiu ln c tc v sau khi li lu gi ln, cng ty thng c phiu.
Trong nhng trng hp nh vy t l tng trng c tc c tnh nh th no?

n gin, chng ta gi thit rng, t l c tc trn EPS (li trn mi c phiu) hng
nm l khng i, do vy t l tng trng c tc bng t l tng trng EPS. Nguyn tc
chung l cc c phiu thng bt c thi im no trong nm hin ti s c coi nh t
u nm v n s cng iu chnh tng cho cc nm qu kh tnh EPS v do vy c
th so snh EPS gia cc nm vi nhau.

V d: Gi s ta c cc s liu ca c phiu HAS nh bng di. Thng 6/2006, Cng

ty pht hnh c phiu thng theo t l 4 c phiu hin hu c thng 1 c phiu.
T l tng trng EPS ca HAS l bao nhiu? (Xem bng 4)

Nh vy t l tng trng EPS bnh qun trong 4 nm va qua ca HAS l 13%/nm.

Nu c tnh t l tng trng c tc n nh hng nm ca HAS bng t l tng trng
EPS l 13%/ nm trong cc nm tip theo. C tc nm va qua l 1.500 /CP, t l li
yu cu trn c phiu HAS l 16,4%, do vy gi tr ni ti ca c phiu HAS s l:

Phas = D1/(Ke - g) = 1.500(1+0,13)/(0,164 - 0,13 ) = 49.852 ng/CP

Nu t l li trn vn ch s hu (ROE) tng, EPS tng, t l g tng, do vy hiu s (ke-

g) gim, lm cho gi tr c phiu tng. Ngc li nu hiu s (ke-g) tng, gi tr c phiu
gim.
Da vo cc s liu t cc bo co ti chnh ca cc cng ty v nhn nh v cc yu t
lin quan, tc gi a ra bng tnh gi tr ni ti ca mt s cng ty ln nh sau: (Xem
bng 5)

Vi cng mt cng thc nh trn, nhng mi ngi s c nhn nh khc nhau v cc con
s D1, Ke v g v do vy s ra cc kt qu tnh gi tr ni ti c phiu khc nhau. Ngi
mua cho rng, gi th trng thp hn gi tr ni ti, h mua vo. Ngc li, ngi bn
cho rng, gi th trng cao hn gi tr ni ti c phiu, do vy h bn ra. Mi khi c
nhng thng tin mi, m n trc tip hay gin tip nh hng n mt trong ba yu t ni
trn, th gi tr ni ti ca c phiu cng s thay i. Gi s cc ch s khc khng i,
nu t l tng trng g ca STB t 12,5% (nh bng trn) xung cn 12%, 11% v
10%/nm th gi tr ni ti ca chng ch cn tng ng l 52.267 ng; 38.850 ng v
30.800 ng/CP. Bn s thy s bin ng khng khip ca (P) nu t l tng trng (g)
gim. Thng th t l tng trng c tc mi c phiu kh c th t c t l 12-
13%/nm cho sut c i tn ti ca mt cng ty. Tuy nhin, rt nhiu nh phn tch
thng dng t l tng trng c tnh cho 5 nm ti.

Tiu chun mitcel trong nh gi v phn tch

Hin nay, vic sp xp li hoc c phn ho cc doanh nghip Nh nc l mt vn

ht sc quan trng, nhm pht huy c ht sc mnh ca nn kinh t v xy dng mt
c ch th trng ngy mt hon thin hn. Th trng chng khon Vit Nam i vo
hot ng, mi ngi cng cn c thng tin nh gi mt cch khch quan v chuyn
nghip v tnh hnh sn xut kinh doanh cng nh c mt ci nhn khi qut nht v cc
t chc nim yt trc khi h c nhng quyt nh u t ca mnh. Chnh v th cn c
nhng phng php phn tch, nh gi. Vic phn tch cng yu cu nghim ngt v tnh
cng khai v trung thc trong thng tin v chuyn mn ca nh phn tch.

Tiu chun Mitcel c s dng phn tch v nh gi cc doanh nghip c bit khi
doanh nghip tham gia kinh doanh hay nim yt trn th trng chng khon. Tiu chun
ny nhm gip cho ngi u t d on c mc thu li cng nh d phng c ri
ro. Ni mt cch n gin nht, ta c th a ra 6 yu t nh hng chnh l ni dung ch
yu ca tiu chun Mitcel v nh gi theo thang im gm bn cp: mnh - trung bnh -
mo him - ri ro cho tng yu t.

Tiu chun nh gi:

1. Cng ngh (Technology): y l yu t quan trng nht. Bao gm vic c p dng

cng ngh tin tin hay khng? Tnh hnh thay i cng ngh c nhanh chng v kp thi
khng? C p dng mt cng ngh thch hp vi tm mc v v th ca mnh m bo
hiu qu v cht lng cao?
2. Th trng (Market): Tim nng v xu hng pht trin ca th trng cng nh nhu
cu trong tng lai... y bo gm c th trng trong nc cng nh vic xut khu v
cc c hi bn hng tim nng khc. Pht trin c cng ngh dn u trong mt th
trng tim nng v n nh l mt trong nhng yu t quyt nh s thng li.

3. u vo (Input): Bao gm con ngi, nguyn vt liu, vn c quy nh do quy m

v tm quan trng ca cng ty (phn nh qua cc bo co v t s ti chnh, tnh trng lao
ng...) i vi nn kinh t quc dn.

4. Lnh o (Leader): C ti v c c, c mi quan h rng... Vai tr ca ngi lnh o

l rt quan trng trong vic nhn bit cc c hi kinh doanh cng nh cc nguy c. y
chng ta thy mi quan h khng kht gia cng ngh - th trng - lnh o. Nh lnh
o gii l ngi thy c tim nng ca th trng v t chn mt cng ngh ph
hp pht trin mt mt hng kinh doanh. Ngc li, t nhng cng ngh siu hin i
v nhng th trng khng l, nhng nh kinh doanh ln xut hin.

5. Cnh tranh (Competitive): Mc cnh tranh ca cc cng ty khc (c th trng trong

nc v quc t).

6. Mi trng kinh t, chnh tr x hi (Environment of social, economy, political) v cc

lut l, chnh sch qun l v m c ph hp vi vic khai thc v pht trin sc mnh ca
cng ty hay khng? Mi trng ny cng l c s to ra cc lut chi, o c cng nh
trit l kinh doanh c tnh lu di, vng chc hay thin v tnh cch c hi, chp git...

Thang im nh gi:

- Mnh: Mt yu t c nh gi l mnh khi n c ln, pht trin n nh v vng

chc k c khi gp nhng bin ng v iu kin kinh t, chnh tr, x hi... C sc cnh
trnh mnh m so vi cc i th khc. C kh nng bo ton vn v c li nhun r
rng, chc chn.

- Trung bnh: t c nhng tiu chun thp hn v sc mnh c th b yu i khi cc

iu kin v kinh t, chnh tr - b thay i. C kh nng bo ton vn v c li nhun
nht nh.

- Mo him: C tim nng v c hi pht trin nhanh nhng khng chc chn. Kh nng
bo ton vn v thu c li nhun trong mt thi gian lu di l rt yu.

- Ri ro: cc tiu chun rt yu km, c th dn ti tnh trng ph sn hoc gn ph sn.

Phng php nh gi:

T hp 6 yu t theo thang im nh gi ta s khai qut c v tnh hnh v chiu

hng pht trin ca sn xut, kinh doanh ca i tng m ta nghin cu t rt ra
cc quyt nh ng n v sng sut. Mt trong nhng u im ni bt ca phng php
ny l n c tnh ton din v khi qut cao, nh gi c doanh nghip trn c s tim
lc ni ti v thch nghi, thn thin ca doanh nghip i vi mi trng bn ngoi.

Vic s dng 4 cp h s (mnh - trung bnh - mo him - ri ro) lm cho vic tnh ton
c n gin ho; kt hp c cc u im ca phng php phn tch c bn
(fundamental anlysis) v phn tch k thut (technical analysis) lm cho vic phn tch
nhanh chng v tin li, giu tnh thuyt phc hn l s dng ring r tng phng php
mt.
KINH NGHIM CHI CHNG KHON

Cm nang cho nh u t mi vo ngh

Trn th trng chng khon (TTCK) c nhiu nh u t giao dch c phiu (CP) xut
pht t nhng mo do bn b mch bo, cc c in thoi ca nh mi gii hay nhng
xut ca mt nh phn tch no . H thng mua CP khi th trng ang trong giai
don nng bng, n lc th trng tr lnh, h rt d hong lon, bn tho s CP nm
gi ri hng chu mt khon thua l. l cu chuyn rt in hnh v nhng nh u
t mi vo ngh.

u t chng khon v c bn l mt qu trnh bao gm 4 bc nh sau:

Bc 1: Chn la CP

Bc u tin trong vic chn la mt CP l bt u theo di din bin cc CP. t mt

CP vo danh sch theo di (Watch list) s lm tng s ch ca bn i vi CP . Tht
him khi bn tm c mt CP no ri mua ngay tc th. Mt danh sch quan st l
mu cht la chn CP thnh cng.

Nu bn theo trng phi phn tch k thut, th khi din bin gi CP l l do chnh
ca vic la chn mt CP theo di.

Cn nu bn theo trng phi phn tch c bn, th tin tc v thu nhp hay bt k mt tin
tc no khc v cng ty li l l do chnh bn quan tm n CP ny. Mt khi CP
nm trong danh sch theo di, bn c th so snh din tin gi c ca CP vi din tin
gi c ca cc CP khc. Bn cng c th tm thy cc thng tin khc lin quan n CP
nhm gip bn c c s ra quyt nh.

Nh u t theo trng phi phn tch k thut c th quan tm n vic tm kim cc

thng tin c tnh k thut v CP. Liu CP c din bin gi c ging nh trong qu kh
khng? Xu hng gi CP trong 13 tun, 26 tun hay 52 tun gn y nht l i ln hay i
xung? So vi lc bt u c a vo danh sch, CP tng hay gim bao nhiu phn
trm?

Nh u t theo trng phi phn tch c bn s tm kim tin tc, cc bn bo co thu

nhp, bo co ngnh hay bo co ca nh phn tch nhm tm kim thng tin. Tuy nhin,
khi chn la CP theo di, cch tt nht l cc nh u t nn kt hp cc thng tin v
phn tch c bn ln phn tch k thut xem liu CP c ng c theo di hay
khng.

May mn lm bn cng ch chn c 2 n 3 CP tt trong s 10 ln chn. Bi vy, bn

ng ngc nhin khi thy cc CP gim gi s chim a s trong danh sch theo di. Cn
lu rng, ch nn a nhng CP tt nht trong danh sch theo di vo danh mc u t
ca bn.

Bc 2: Chp nhn v th

Chp nhn v th l cng vic kh n gin, bn ch cn lin h vi nh mi gii v thc

hin giao dch. Tuy nhin cng cn lu mt s iu. Trc tin l loi giao dch m bn
thc hin: on hay trng (short or long). Mc d xu hng chung ca gi CP l di ln
nhng bt k ai d tng mc phi mt v th thua l u c th hiu rng, trong ngn hn
CP c nhiu kh nng i xung hn l i ln. Nhn chung, bn nn trnh nhng v th
on (v th bn non). Chng ngn rt nhiu thi gian v cng sc nhng c hi dnh cho
v th on li rt him hoi. Nu bn thc hin v th on, bn cn phi gim st v th
cn thn gp i so vi v th trng.

K n l vic chn la nh mi gii. Nu bn l mt nh u t t nhn bn c l ch

cn n mt nh mi gii phn dch v (discount broker). y l nh mi gii cung cp
dch v c bn nht cho bn, tc l ch thc hin lnh gip bn v n hoa hng.

Bc 3: Gim st v th

Gim st cc v th thc hin l phn quan trng nht ca qu trnh u t. Tt c

nhng thng tin v s iu tra nghin cu a bn n ch ra quyt nh giao dch. Gim
st v th l lc bn theo di v nh gi quyt dnh u t ca mnh. Khi v th nm
v tr bp bnh gia l v li, bn cn phi ht sc ch n nhng v th ny. Khi CP m
bn chn tng gi u u v bn c c s tin rng, l CP tt th bn nn tnh n
chuyn mua thm CP ny. Nu CP m bn chn gim gi lin tc bn cng nn cn nhc
bn i CP nhm hn ch thua l.

Bc 4: Kt thc v th

Nh u t thng bn CP khi gi CP t n mc gi mc tiu (target price) hay CP

khng din bin theo nh mong i ca anh ta. Tuy nhin, rt nhiu nh u t khng
bit bn khi no v bn nh th no kt thc mt v th v mang li kt qu tt nht.
Thng thng, bn nn bn CP khi nhng nhn t c bn cho thy s sa st ng k,
chng hn nh, thu nhp v li nhun cng ty gim st trong nhiu nm lin, th phn thu
hp dn do cnh tranh gay gt hay ni b ban gim c lun lc c...

Nn quan tm n g trc khi u t?

Ti u t vo hng nghn cng ty khc nhau trn th trng chng khon. Thnh cng
khng bao gi n t nhng iu thn k hay s n lc t i. Lun c mt cng thc
hng ti li nhun. iu quan trng l bn cn bit nhn vo u trc mi quyt nh
u t. l nhn nh ca Doug Richard, mt trong nhng nh u t chng khon
hng u trn th gii.

Nm 2004, Doug Richard c tp ch BBC bu chn l nh u t c ci nhn sc so

nht trong gii u t chng khon Anh. Nhng khon u t c phiu tri phiu ca
Doug lun c t l sinh li trn 20%. Mc d la chn phng thc u t mo him
nhng dng nh cha bao gi Doug phi ng u vi thua l. Nhiu ngi bn khon
t hi: u l ngi bo v cho nhng khon u t mo him ca Doug Richard?

S tht rt n gin! Doug Richard dnh kh nhiu thi gian phn tch k lng trong
giai on tin u t. Vi Doug, lun c 5 nhn t then cht cn phi quan tm trc khi
u t tin bc vo mt loi c phiu no :

1. m bo an ton vn

k hoch u t khng ng u vi ri ro ln, iu u tin m cc nh u t cn

quan tm l m bo ng vn ca mnh c an ton, khng b gim st. Cc nh u t
nn xy dng danh mc u t a ng. u t i khi cng c nhm ln, s nhm ln
ny c th lm cc nh u t ph sn. V vy khi u t chng khon nn trnh tp trung
vo mt loi chng khon m cn chia ra nhiu loi chng khon khc nhau, tc l phn
tn ri ro. Mi ngi bit rng nhng cng ty ln nht trn th trng cng c th ph
sn, v vy mt danh mc u t cng a dng bao nhiu cng tt by nhiu, nhng c
phiu thng cuc s b p cho nhng c phiu thua cuc. Nu s tin t th nn mua
chng khon ca cng ty m chng ta ang lm vic, gia nhp cc hi u t hoc l mua
c phiu ca cc Qu h tng.

Khng ch c vy, gi c phiu tng lin tc trong mt thi gian nht nh s mang li
cho cc nh u t nhng khon li ln hn rt nhiu. Tuy nhin, chnh s tng gi ny
y gi cc loi c phiu ln mc gi qu cao. Vy nn mua vo hay bn ra c phiu
no vo thi im ny? Khng nn tham qu khi c gm gi c phiu ch n tng gi
cao hn na. Ci quan trng l phi bit khi no n chun b mt gi kp thi bn ra,
ch khi gi xung thp th cho d c mun bn cng chng c ai mua, Doug cho
bit.

2. S i mi v cch tn

S i mi khng ch n thun l nhng pht minh sng ch. N c th l nhng cch

thc mi tin hnh cc hot ng kinh doanh c. Mt cng ty nhit huyt vi s i
mi th c phiu ca nhng cng ty s ha hn tim nng tng trng rt ln. Trong
khi, mt cng ty qu bo th vi nhng phng thc truyn thng th c phiu ca cng
ty cng tr nn tr tr v km nng ng.

iu quan trng chin lc u t c thnh cng l vic nm bt r tnh nng ng

ca c phiu. Do , cc nh u t nn tm hiu xem cng ty m mnh d nh u t c
thc s hng n nhng phng php kinh doanh mi khi gp kh khn hay khng.
3. Tnh hnh nhn s

Hot ng kinh doanh u do con ngi thc hin. Do vy, vic nm bt tnh hnh nhn
s ca cng ty m bn d nh u t l rt cn thit, Doug ni. Theo ng, vic tm hiu
tnh hnh nhn s khng phi l cng vic qu kh khn. Khng ai c tt c nhng k
nng, kinh nghim v danh ting iu hnh cc hot ng kinh doanh, iu quan trng
chnh l ch h c nhit huyt vi cng vic hay khng.

Khi ti nhn vo tnh hnh nhn s, ti mun thy s n lc cng vic ca cc nhn vin
trong cng ty m ti d nh u t, Dough ni, Mt cng ty c tnh hnh nhn s
khng n nh, thng xuyn thay i nhn vin khng phi l mt cng ty tt u
t.

Hn th na, vi Doug, tnh hnh nhn s cng l yu t quyt nh bn c phiu. Nu

nhng nh qun l hng u ca cng ty (nhng ngi chu trch nhim v s thnh cng
ca cng ty) bt u ri b cng ty th c th xem l du hiu bt li cho tng lai ca
cng ty. Khi cn phi theo di v pht hin xem ti sao li c nhng thay i nh vy.
c bit, khi pht hin ra nhng du hiu cho thy cng ty ang tr nn suy yu trong
lnh vc kinh doanh chnh th tt nht nn bn c phiu ca cng ty i v thay vo
l tm mua c phiu ca cng ty khc trong cng lnh vc nhng mnh hn v c Ban
qun tr n nh hn.

4. Bn co bch

Bn co bch lun c xem nh mt ti liu then cht. i cc nh u t, Bn bo

bch l phng tin gip h nh gi mc sinh li v trin vng ca cng ty trc khi
quyt nh c u t vo cng ty hay khng. Mt quyt nh thiu thng tin c th lm
cc nh u t phi tr gi t.

Bi vy, cc nh u t nn c Bn co bch mt cch k lng v tm hiu r nhng

may ri thc s ca cng ty trc khi ra quyt nh u t. Nn nh gi cn thn nhng
yu t c bn ca cng ty d nh u t thng qua vic nghin cu cc thng tin trong
Bn co bch. Mc d nhng t cho bn ln u ra cng chng dng nh l c hi
u t tt v chng thng mang li li nhun ban u cao, tc l tin chnh lch, do c
phiu tng gi; nhng ri ro vn tn ti v khng c g bo m l s thu c tin chnh
lch hoc tin chnh lch s c nh mc m bn trng i.

Ti lun bt u phn tch mt cng ty pht hnh bng Bn co bch ca cng ty. Trong
qu trnh thc hin, ti t t ra cho mnh mt s mc ch quan trng nh tm hiu xem
vic kinh doanh ca cng ty c tin trin hay khng, li nhun trung bnh nh th no, n
nn ra sao,... Doanh thu tng c ngha l li nhun cng tng v dn ti gi c phiu tng.
Nhng cc con s cha phi l ni ln tt c. Do vy, s rt cn thit khi nghin cu Bn
co bch mt cch k lng tm ra nhng du hiu tng trng ca cng ty, Doug
ni.
Cc nh u t cng nn tm hiu v cc sn phm cng ty kinh doanh, khch hng ca
cng ty, t ra cu hi liu cc sn phm ny c tip tc bn c na khng. Cc thng
tin chnh v cc vn ny nm trong cc phn khc nhau ca Bn co bch.

5. K hoch kinh doanh

Nu cng ty m bn d nh u t khng c nhng k hoch kinh doanh tt th trin

vng li nhun ca c phiu gn nh bng khng. Bn ng mc phi sai lm ny, kinh
doanh l mt cuc chin. kim li t c phiu bn cn hiu c phiu ang lm
nhng g v c k hoch nh th no, Doug ni.

Tt c cc hot ng kinh doanh u c nhng k hoch v mc tiu. K hoch kinh

doanh s to ra nhng trng im m cng ty cn tp trung vo. Cc nh u t khng th
b qua vic nghin cu cc k hoch kinh doanh nu mun c c nhng khon u t
sinh li.

Vic tm hiu k hoch kinh doanh ca cc cng ty khng qu d nhng cng khng qu
kh. Cc nh u t c th tm hiu t chnh nhng nh u t nm gi c phiu ca cng
ty . H l nhng ngi am hiu v c phiu ny hn ai ht.

Tp ch BBC c mt cuc phng vn ngn vi Doug Richard v cng vic u t

chng khon ca ng:

BBC: Gii u t chng khon n rng, khi bt u, mi "chi" c phiu c hn 5 thng

m ng li c triu bng Anh?

Doug Richard: Ti khng tranh ci chuyn thin h n i v mnh, bn b vn quen gi

ti l "trm c phiu". iu m ti cm thy yn tm v hi lng sau mt thi gian tham
gia u t c phiu l chn ng nh mi gii. Ti cho rng, t c s h tng n i
ng nhn vin mi gii ca Cng ty mi gii Nicleway, ni ti ang m ti khon l ng
tin cy.

BBC: C s no to cho ng s tin cy ny?

Doug Richard: Theo nh gi ca ti, Nicleway kh nng ca nh mi gii l vt tri.

iu ny th hin qua cch tr li chnh xc, d hiu, mc tinh thng nghip v, tnh
trung thc, tinh thn phc v v tnh bo mt khch hng ca i ng nhn vin lm vic
y. Nh vy, kh nng truyn thng gia cc nhn vin mi gii ti sn ca cng ty
chng khon v ti S Giao dch chng khon thng rt nhanh chng, chnh xc. Ngoi
ra, Nicleway cn c nhng dch v h tr khc nh c th cho khch hng th chp
chng khon ngn hng m vay tin mua chng khon hoc lm vic khc...

BBC: C phi ng gin tip cho rng trong u t chng khon th iu u tin cn quan
tm l vic chn cng ty chng khon?
Doug Richard: iu ny tng c cc chuyn gia v chng khon khuyn co. Thc
t trong thi gian qua li khuyn ny l hon ton chnh xc. C th thy, trong iu kin
t lnh giao dch qua nhn vin mi gii ti cc cng ty chng khon nh hin nay, kh
nng x l lnh nhanh nhy ca nhn vin mi gii l ht sc quan trng, bi v nu bn
t lnh cng vi gi ca ngi khc m nhn vin mi gii li nhp lnh chm hn i
th cnh tranh th bn mt quyn u tin v kh nng lnh ca bn c thc hin r
rng nh hn ngi kia.

BBC: Vic chn ng nh mi gii l mt li th nhng mua hoc bn c c phiu

mc gi va li do nh u t quyt nh. Vi kinh nghim ca mnh, ng c th "bt
m" mt vi b quyt?

Doug Richard: Phng php m ti s dng xy dng "danh mc u t ca mnh l

da vo nhng nhn nh ca bn thn. Nhn nh ny c tnh theo mc li tc k
vng cho mi gi nh u t ca mnh v so snh chng vi nhau tm ra danh mc ti
u v mt s lng v chng loi chng khon (tc l danh mc c k vng cao nht).

Ti cho rng, phng php tnh li tc k vng ny ph thuc ch yu vo nh gi ch

quan ca mi nh u t da trn cc thng tin v hot ng ca doanh nghip hng
thng, hng tun, thm ch hng ngy. Vic nh gi xc sut v t l li nhun c chia
tuy cng da trn c s thc t l bn co bch, bo co v vic phn chia c tc, thng
tin i chng, thng tin khng chnh thc m nh kinh doanh thu thp c nhng ngi
no c nhiu thng tin chnh xc v c kh nng d on tt hn s c nhiu c hi thnh
cng. iu ny i hi ngi tham gia hot ng kinh doanh chng khon phi lun ng
no, cn kh nng t duy, thm ch i hi h c ch v bn lnh.

BBC: Nh u t c nn mt lc u t vo nhiu loi c phiu?

Doug Richard: C mt nguyn tc c bn trong kinh doanh chng khon l ng bao gi

"b tt c trng vo mt r". Tuy vy, vic u t dn tri vo qu nhiu danh mc u t
cng c th khng mang li hiu qu mong i. Ngi u t va mt sc lc li va
khng kim sot c i tng u t ca mnh. Theo ti, nh u t nn tm hiu nhiu
loi chng khon nhng ch nn u t vo mt s loi chng khon m h tin tng
nht.
BBC: Li khuyn no vi cc nh u t chng khon mi vo ngh?
Doug Richard: Trong mua bn chng khon, iu quan trng l nh u t phi bit t
bo v mnh v a ra nhng phng php u t ph hp nht vi tng loi chng
khon.. Mt s bin php an ton c bn m cc chuyn gia chng khon khuyn co
c th c tham kho nh hy cnh gic vi nhng tin n, nhng ngi bn ang gy
sc p buc mnh phi hnh ng tc thi hoc nhng s bo m hay li ha v li
nhun nhanh chng; phi chc chn hiu r v s mo him, ri ro pht sinh trong mua
bn chng khon. Ngoi ra cng cn hiu bn cht ca th trng chng khon l lun
bin ng, iu quan trng m cc nh u t nn nh l thnh cng trc y khng
phi l s bo m cho thnh cng trong tng lai i vi mt phi v u t.

BBC: Xin cm n ng!

c mnh danh l mt nh u t c coi l "c mu mt" ti Anh, kinh nghim v
nhng li khuyn ca Doug Richard chc chn s rt hu ch trong thi bui th trng
c nhiu bin ng nh hin nay, c bit l i vi nhng nh u t mi vo ngh.
ri, chnh s cn trng v nhanh chng nm bt kinh nghim u t chng khon s a
n b quyt thnh cng trn th trng chng khon, Doug Richard nhn nh.

Nhng nhn vt khng th thiu trn th trng chng khon

Tri qua hng trm nm lch s hnh thnh, th trng chng khon n nay vn khng
ngng pht trin v ngy cng khng nh l mt knh huy ng vn hu hiu ca nn
kinh t. Cng vi nhng tin b ca khoa hc k thut v yu cu v s a dng trong cc
hot ng u t, n nay nhiu loi th trng ra i vi cc hnh thc t chc th
trng t n gin (th trng chng khon phi tp trung) n hin i v ht sc cht
ch (th trng chng khon tp trung).

Th trng chng khon khng th thiu nhng thnh vin hot ng ca mnh. Khi
cp n cc hnh thc t chc th trng khng th khng nhc n vai tr ca cc
chuyn gia v cc nh to tp th trng trong vic to lp s cng bng, hiu qu v trt
t trn mi th trng ny.

Vai tr ca chuyn gia chng khon trn th trng chng khon giao dch tp trung.

Mc tiu ca cc S giao dch l to lp mt mi trng giao dch chng khon (chng

khon) an ton v hiu qu, trong cc nh u t phi c i x cng bng, c
cung cp thng tin tng xng nhm h tr kp thi cho cc quyt nh u t.

Trn th trng chng khon giao dch tp trung, chuyn gia chng khon l nhng ngi
hot ng chuyn mn nhm duy tr s cng bng, cnh tranh v hiu qu v mt loi
chng khon nim yt. Ngoi ra, cc chuyn gia cn l s kt ni gia cc nh mi
gii vi cc lnh t mua v bn trn th trng chng khon, h tr cho cc giao dch
c thc hin an ton v hiu qu.

Mt giao dch c thc hin khi gi c hp l, t c mc gi hp l th cc

lnh u phi chuyn qua cc chuyn gia ph trch. Vai tr ca cc chuyn gia c th
hin qua cc hot ng sau:

- Vai tr l i l ca cc nh mi gii: Cng vic ca chuyn gia l thc hin lnh cho
cc nh mi gii i vi loi chng khon m h ph trch. Nu mt khch hng tin
hnh t lnh thng qua nh mi gii, trong trng hp lnh gii hn khng th thc hin
c, nh mi gii s chuyn lnh ny sang cc chuyn gia, cc chuyn gia s tr thnh
ngi i din cho nh mi gii i vi lnh ti sn giao dch.
- Vai tr l nh u gi: Trong ton b phin giao dch, cc chuyn gia s a ra mt
mc gi cho mua - cho bn tt nht, trn c s n u mi phin giao dch h thit
lp mt mc gi giao dch hp l i vi tng loi chng khon trn c s cung - cu v
loi chng khon . Hot ng ny nhm bo m trt t th trng i vi tng loi
chng khon m h ph trch, ng thi hn ch s dao ng v gi c ca chng khon
.

- Vai tr l nh kinh doanh: Cc chuyn gia thc hin giao dch ti mt mc gi nm

trong khong gi cho mua cao nht v gi cho bn thp nht. H l ngi chu trch
nhim gim thiu s chnh lch gia lnh mua v lnh bn. Vic mua v bn ny c
thc hin theo hng ca th trng cho n khi s chnh lch c cn bng tr li.
Trong trng hp xy ra bin c v lnh, v gi c... ti th trng giao dch tp trung, vai
tr ca cc chuyn gia tr nn rt quan trng trong vic ch ng iu chnh cc bin c
v trng thi cn bng v n nh.

Vai tr ca cc nh to lp th trng trn th trng phi tp trung.

Nh to lp th trng l ngi thc hin chc nng duy tr th trng cho mt loi chng
khon. Chng hn, i vi chng khon A l chng khon khng nim yt v c mua
bn trn th trng phi tp trung (OTC). Nh to lp th trng l ngi t ra mc gi
bn chng khon A cho bn mua vi s thch gi trn c s tng ng vi mc gi m
bn bn (khch hng ca h) yu cu.

Sau khi nh u t t lnh mua bn chng khon A trn th trng OTC, nh mi gii s
chuyn lnh ny ti nh kinh doanh (thuc b phn kinh doanh ca cng ty mi gii).
Nh kinh doanh s tm kim ngi c th bn s chng khon A (nh mi gii bn bn).
Lc ny, nh mi gii bn bn ng vai tr l ngi to lp th trng cho chng khon
A.

Thc t l c nhiu nh mi gii sn sng bn chng khon A v nh vy s c rt nhiu

nh to lp th trng i vi chng khon A tng ng vi cc mc "thch gi" khc
nhau. Nh kinh doanh bt u tin hnh thng lng v gi c ca chng khon A
vi cc nh to lp th trng c th t c mc gi ti u. Giao dch s c thc
hin khi nh kinh doanh tm c nh to lp th trng bn s chng khon A vi mc
gi thp nht.

Thng thng cc nh to lp th trng l nhng nh mi gii c ng k. Tuy

nhin, khng phi tt c cc nh mi gii ng k u l nhng nh to lp th trng.
c th tr thnh mt nh to lp th trng th ngi mi gii phi thc s quan tm
n vic to dng th trng cho mt loi chng khon.

Vai tr ca cc nh to lp th trng c th hin thng qua cc hot ng sau:

- Duy tr tnh linh hot ca th trng i vi mt loi chng khon khi chng khon
c pht hnh ra th trng.
- Tng kh nng thc hin giao dch mt loi chng khon c th sinh li do s cnh
tranh v gi c t ra gia cc nh to lp th trng khc nhau i vi cng loi chng
khon .
- Thu ht s quan tm ca cc nh u t ti mt loi chng khon khng nim yt trn
th trng.
- Tng tnh linh hot ca th trng i vi mt loi chng khon khi tng s lng cc
nh to lp th trng.

Cc chuyn gia cng c th tr thnh "nh to lp th trng" i vi mt loi chng

khon c th trong iu kin phi chu s kim sot cht ch. S kim sot ny s hn ch
c cc sai phm nu h lm dng quyn hnh c quyn ca mnh ti S giao dch.

Bn cnh , cc nh to lp th trng c xu hng cnh tranh vi nhau do lun c

nhiu nh to lp th trng i vi mt chng khon, do th trng OTC c nh
gi l c kh nng t iu chnh tt hn th trng giao dch chng khon tp trung.

C chuyn gia chng khon v nh to lp th trng u c tip cn vi cc thng tin

c bit do h thng xuyn tip cn trc tip vi cc thng tin trn s lnh, v vy h
c nhiu kh nng b "r r" thng tin khi c s bin ng th trng. Nu khng b cm,
cc chuyn gia v cc nh to lp th trng c th s dng cc thng tin ny (bao gm
cc thng tin ni b) thc hin kinh doanh cho chnh h nhm thu li nhun. cng
chnh l l do ti sao nhng i tng ny b kim sot cht ch. Mt yu cu khc na
l h phi cng bng vi tt c cc nh u t, khng c php thin v bt c bn no.

Ngy nay, trn th gii c nhiu loi th trng mi ra i nh th trng c phiu, th

trng tri phiu, th trng tng lai, th trng quyn chn... cng vi s h tr ca cc
phng thc giao dch a dng khng ngng thc y s pht trin ca h thng th
trng chng khon, gp phn vo s cng bng, hiu qu v trt t i vi cc giao dch
ti cc th trng ny... V vy vai tr ca cc chuyn gia v cc nh to lp th trng l
lun c khng nh.

Cn trng khi giao dch vi cc Cng ty chng khon

Hin ti, cch tip cn d nht ca nh u t vi th trng chng khon l qua cc cng
ty chng khon. Ti cc th trng chng khon ln trn th gii, cc hnh thc u t
chng khon cng "xm nhp" vo t duy ca mi ngi. Trn nhng th trng ny,
c th thy lng khch hng n cc cng ty chng khon m ti khon giao dch ni
ring hay lng ngi quan tm n chng khon ni chung ngy mt tng

Cc cng ty chng khon c lm i l pht hnh chng khon nim yt hoc khng
cho cc t chc pht hnh. Ngoi ra, nhng n v ny c thc hin t vn c phn
ha, xc nh gi tr doanh nghip v cung cp cc dch v ti chnh khc ph hp.
Khi tin hnh t vn u t chng khon trc tip cho khch hng, cc cng ty ny phi
chu trch nhim trc php lut v hot ng ca mnh v bi thng thit hi cho ngi
s dng nu vi phm cc cam kt. Trong trng hp thc hin t vn cho doanh nghip
trong vic nim yt chng khon, cc cng ty phi lin i chu trch nhim v ni dung
trong h s xin nim yt. Tuy nhin, vn c rt nhiu cng ty chng khon li dng
nhng khe h ca php lut tin hnh cc hnh vi tiu cc m nu khng cn thn cc
nh u t rt d gp ri ro.

1. T vn v li ch c nhn ca cc cng ty chng khon:

Do c nhn, cng ty chng khon c th s t vn u t khng ph hp vi nhu

cu, khn nng ti chnh v mc tiu ca khch hng. Do , khch hng cn nhn thc
rng, mnh mun c hng dn u t ph hp vi bn thn mnh ch khng phi ph
hp vi ngi mi gii. Mi khon u t c t vn u cn c li gii thch cn k,
gm c vic khuyn co cc ri ro.

2. Vi phm quy nh giao dch cng bng:

Cc hot ng sau y ca cc cng ty chng khon b xem l vi phm nhng quy nh

lin quan n giao dch cng bng:

+ ngh thc hin vic u c chng khon m khng xem xt tnh hnh ti chnh ca
khch hng v m bo khch hng khng chu ri ro.
+ M ti khon khng ch thc hin vic kinh doanh chng khon tri php.
+ Thc hin cc giao dch ngoi thm quyn c giao.
+ ngh mua chng khon khng thch hp vi kh nng chi tr ca khch hng.
+ Cc hot ng la o (chng hn nh gii mo v cung cp khng y hoc khng
cung cp s liu thc t).

3. Giao dch thi qu:

Hnh vi giao dch thi qu c ngha l giao dch thng xuyn v vi s lng ln trn ti
khon ca khch hng nhm mc ch nhn hoa hng m khng nhm t c cc mc
tiu khch hng ra. y l hnh vi lm dng trch nhim u quyn ca khch hng.

Mt trong nhng bin php ngn chn hnh vi lm dng ny l nh u cn phi yu

cu rt c ti khon m mnh u quyn cho cng ty chng khon phi c gim st vin
ca cng ty chng khon xem xt thng xuyn.

4. Vay v cho vay tin v chng khon:

+ Vay tin v vay chng khon ca khch hng: Cc cng ty chng khon b cm vay
tin hay chng khon t khch hng tr phi khch hng l ngn hng hay cc t chc ti
chnh c chc nn thc hin vic cho vay tin v chng khon.
+ Cho khch hng vay tin v chng khon: Cc cng ty chng khon cng b cm cho
khch hng vay tin hay chng khon. Quy nh ny khng p dng cho nghip v vay
bo chng ca cc cng ty chng khon hay vic cc nh mi gii chng khon cho vay
theo nghi v thng thng.

5. Xuyn tc:

Cc cng ty chng khon c th xuyn tc, ni khng ng v bn thn hay v cc dch

v ca cng ty mnh i vi khch hng tim nng. Do , theo quy nh, Cng ty chng
khon khng c php xuyn tc v:

- Trnh , kinh nghim v hc vn.

- Loi hnh dch v phc v khch hng.
- Cc loi ph.

Vic cng b khng chnh xc hay khng cng b cc s kin quan trng lin quan n
nhng vn trn cng b coi l xuyn tc. Khch hng s phi kh khn khi so snh cht
lng dch v gia cc cng ty chng khon nu khch hng khng c cung cp thng
tin y , chnh xc lin quan n vn chuyn mn.

6. S dng cc bo co, cng trnh nghin cu ca cng ty hoc c nhn khch:

Cng ty chng khon khng c php s dng cc nghin cu phn tch hay ngh do
c nhn hay cng ty khc tin hnh m khng cng b rng, cc bo co ny khng phi
do chnh h thc hin. Cng ty chng khon c th s dng cc kt qu nghin cu trong
cc bo co hay phn tch ca ngi khc nhng khng c t nhn rng, cc bo co,
nghin cu l ca mnh.

C th ni, nh u t n bt k Cng ty chng khon no cng u d dng c tip

cn vi nhng thng tin th trng, nhng li khuyn ca nh mi gii, hoc t vn ca
cc chuyn gia... l ti nhng th trng lu i nh ph Wall, Nht Bn, Hng Kng.
Tuy nhin, ti nhng th trng chng khon cn rt mi v s khai nh th trng Vit
Nam, cc ch th hot ng trn th trng vn trong giai on va lm va b sung v
cng c nn nh u t cha th c c s t nim tin tuyt i vo bt k mt nh
ch ti chnh no.

Nh u t cn thc rng d c bit c mt tin tc tt lnh n u i na th quyt

nh mua hay bn vn cn cn nhc k bi mua chng khon l mua bng tin ca chnh
mnh, c hay mt u tc ng trc tip n ngn sch ca nh u t. c bit cn
thn trng vi tro lu th trng v trong tro lu th trng hin ti, nh u t b tin
mua chng khon nhn chung vn theo xu hng k vng gi ln ch khng my ai c
nhng phn tch st thc tnh hnh hot ng ca cng ty nim yt tm ra mt mc gi
hp l.

Nhiu chuyn gia chng khon cho rng rt kh d on xu th bin chuyn ca gi

chng khon v hai nguyn nhn:
Th nht, cc thng tin v cng ty nim yt cha thc s c cng b thng xuyn v
y .
Th hai, do hnh thc u t chng khon cn rt mi m i vi cng chng nn vic
quyt nh mua, bn chng khon ca nhiu nh u t vn mang tnh t pht theo tro
lu, cha c s phn tch nh gi nn khng n nh trong tm l u t.

C mt vi iu nh u t cn lu khi giao dch vi cc Cng ty chng khon, c th:

- Hy yu cu Cng ty chng khon cho bn bit v tnh hnh th trng hin ti, bn
cng c th yu cu h cung cp cc ti liu v tnh hnh ca cc cng ty nim yt. Hy
quan tm n nhng quy nh c bn v hot ng ca cng ty v th trng nh gii hn
khon tin m ti khon, mc ph mi gii, bin dao ng gi...
- Cn thn trng i vi nhng nh t vn u t cung cp thng tin khng khp vi cc
thng tin trong ti liu. Trong trng hp c nhiu im khng ging hy xin t vn di
dng vn bn v nhng gi u t v l do u t. iu ny s h tr bn trong trng
hp pht sinh cc vn sau khi bn c t vn.
- Cc Cng ty chng khon ha hn li nhun nhanh chng v d dng cng l iu bn
cn cn nhc Hy nh l iu g qu tt, qu thun li u cn phi xem li. Nn cn nhc
k cng, nu bn cn bn khon iu g hy tm li khuyn ca ngi t vn khc.

- ng b thuyt phc dn n nhng quyt nh hp tp da trn cc thng tin "ni

gin", thng tin "tuyt mt", "kh nng hp nht" hoc "b thu tm" hay nhng tin v
"sn phm mi hp dn"...
- Khi u t vo chng khon, nn hiu rng cc iu kin cp php do U ban Chng
khon
Nh nc t ra l nhm bo m cho cc Cng ty chng khon, cng ty qun l qu
cng nh cc nhn vin c cp php c kh nng hot ng trong lnh vc c cp
php. Tuy nhin, iu ny khng c ngha l cc loi giy php do U ban Chng khon
Nh nc cp s m bo tnh trung thc i vi hnh vi ca ngi hoc n v c cp
php hay cht lng dch v m h cung cp.

Mua chng khon mt cch khn ngoan

Bt u hot ng u t vo th trng chng khon qu l khng my d dng. M ti

khon hng t vn u t s rt tn km. Mua cc loi chng khon khc nhau cng i
hi phi xy dng mt danh mc u t a dng.

Cch tt nht bt u "bun" chng khon l dng chin lc gi l bnh qun gi chi
ph la (dollar-cost averaging). y l mt thut ng thng dng thc hin cc
khon u t vo mt chng khon thng xuyn v c h thng m khng tnh n yu
t gi c.
Cc cuc nghin cu cho thy rng cc nh u t theo chin lc thng c
khuynh hng phi tr mc gi thp hn nhng ngi mua chng khon theo s lng
ln. Chin lc ny kh hu hiu, c bit i vi ngnh c giao ng cao nh ngnh
cng ngh. S d nh vy l bi v cng 100$ mt thng c th mua c nhiu chng
khon hn khi gi xung v s mua c t chng khon hn khi gi ln.

C rt nhiu cch thit lp nn nhng khon u t chng khon theo h thng. Cch
th nht c th l thc hin vic mua vo chng khon lin tc thng qua mt nh mi
gii gim gi trn mng. Hoc l nh u t c th s dng dch v ca cc nhm h tr
nh u t v chng khon.

Nguyn tc quan trng nht khi u t chng khon l phi chp hnh nghim chnh
nhng quy tc ra v thit lp nhng khon u t thng xuyn trong qu chng
khon ca bn mi thng, bt k l khon u t y nh n mc no. V sau , bn hy
bnh tnh vt qua nhng "th thch cam go" ca th trng.

nh hng ti sn trong u t chng khon

Th no l ti sn thc v th no l ti sn ti chnh? Nh u t nn u t vo loi ti

sn no trn th trng chng khon? l cu hi m cc nh u t chng khon cn
tr li trc khi tin hnh cc hot ng u t chng khon. C mt s nh u t
nhm ln khi tr li cu hi trn. Kt qu l h phi chu nhng khon thua l khng ng
c.

Ti sn thc l cc loi ti sn trc tip tham gia qu trnh sn xut hng ha - dch v ca
nn kinh t nh: t ai, nh xng, my mc thit b, cht xm,...

Ngc li, ti sn ti chnh l cc loi ti sn khng tham gia trc tip qu trnh sn xut
hng ha dch v, nh tin, chng khon v cc loi giy t c gi,... Cc loi ti sn
ny ch l nhng chng ch bng giy hoc c th ch l nhng d liu trong my tnh, s
sch.

Ti sn ti chnh yu cu cao v li tc m cc ti sn thc to ra. Ni cch khc, ti sn

thc to ra li tc thun cho nn kinh t, cn ti sn ti chnh th nh ra s phn phi li
tc hoc ca ci gia cc nh u t.

Cc nh u t em ca ci ca mnh i mua cc loi chng khon (ti sn ti chnh).

Nhng ngi pht hnh chng khon (cng ty, chnh ph,...) s dng s tin huy ng
c t vic pht hnh chng khon u t mua ti sn thc nh nh xng, my mc
thit b, cng ngh, hng ho v thng quyn. Khi , thu nhp t chng khon ca cc
nh u t ch yu t li tc do cc ti sn thc to ra v cc ti sn thc ny th c ti
tr ch yu bng vic pht hnh chng khon.
Hng ha giao dch trn th trng chng khon l cc ti sn ti chnh, khng l ti sn
thc. Ty theo ch v mc ch u t, cc nh u t c th la chn u t vo cc
loi chng khon sau:

Chng khon li tc c nh:

Chng khon ny c tr li tc c nh hng nm nh tri phiu chnh ph, tri phiu

cng ty,... Thng thng, li tc thp do ri ro rt thp nu tnh hnh ti chnh ca cng ty
tt v lnh mnh.

Chng khon vn (c phiu thng):

C tc ty thuc vo kt qa hot ng kinh doanh ca cng ty hng nm. Nu cng ty

hot ng hiu qu, gi tr c phn vn tng, ngc li nu hiu qu km th gi tr c
phn vn s gim. Do vy, u t vo loi chng khon ny lun gn lin vi hiu qu
kinh doanh v ti sn thc ca cng ty. Do , mc ri ro kh cao. Tuy nhin, nu
phn tch v d on chnh xc hiu qu hot ng kinh doanh ca cng ty th mc li
nhun thu c t c tc v gi tr c phn u t c th rt cao, i khi trong khong
thi gian rt ngn.

Chng khon c iu kin:

Chng khon ny l cc hp ng quyn la chn (option) v cc hp ng tng lai

(future), cung cp nhng khon thanh ton c xc nh trc theo gi ca cc ti sn
khc nh gi tri phiu, c phiu hay hng ho. Loi chng khon ny hin nay rt thng
dng trn th trng chng khon cc nc do c s dng linh ng v thun tin trong
cc giao dch trn th trng.

u t bt hp php, bit trnh!

m bo mt mi trng u t lnh mnh, th trng chng khon cn c xy

dng trn nn tng thi hnh trung thc v cng bng. Nh u t phi c bo v ti a.
S an ton chnh l nhn t thuyt phc cho th trng tn ti v c duy tr bi: mt
hnh lang php lut, mt h thng quy chun v nghip v c chun ho chi li v
nhng iu cm k c tnh nguyn tc.

Trn th trng c mt s hot ng bt hp php m iu ny i khi nh hng n

quyn li ca nhng nh u t. Nhng nh u t kinh nghim thng bit hn ch
ti a ri ro cho mnh. Tuy nhin i vi nhng nh u t mi vo ngh th vn ny
vn cn rt mi m. V nu khng cn thn, nh u t s sp by trn th trng
chng khon

Giao dch gi to
Tng t nh vic a ra cho mua, cho bn o, vic dng ln cc giao dch ngu to c
th c mt s ngi s dng nhm to cc t bin th trng cho mt loi chng
khon no ng hu phc v cho dng c nhn. Cc ng tc gi (artificial
transactions) ny d c vn dng di bt c hnh thc no u b nghim cm.

Gi th

Cng nhm ngy to cm gic th trng ca mt chng khon no si ng, cng lc

c hai ngi a ra hai lnh mua v bn ging ht nhau thng qua cng mt cng ty mi
gii v c thc hin. Kt qu mua bn c bo co trn cc h thng thng tin nhng
k thc y ch l mt mt mnh kho to xung ng gi ch khng c mua bn theo
cung cu trung thc.

Cc c nhn cng c th t thc hin th thut ny hoc do cc nhm cng cnh lm n

bt chnh to ra. Cc cng ty chng khon buc phi lu v pht hin cc lnh i ng
kiu ny v khng c thc hin nghip v khi bit rng l mt hot ng gi th
(matching). V d mua v bn cng loi chng khon, cng s lng, gn nh cng gi
ti cng thi im,

Mua bn t bin

Mua bn t bin tng ln c xc nh khi mt thnh vin c th cu kt vi khch

hng - thc hin cc lng mua bn mt lng chng khon vt tri, ti mt thi im
no , khc xa vi din bin bnh thng, hoc vt qu s cn i ngun ti chnh ca
mnh mt cch l liu. Hot ng ny c th b kt ti hoc b truy cu gy nhiu lon
th trng.

Dng cc phng tin truyn thng gy nh hng th trng

Cc cng ty chng khon, hoc cc c nhn, n v lin quan, khng c dng tin mua
chuc v to ra cc bi vit, cc nhn nh thun li theo mnh hoc cc cp c dng
khc trn bo ch, cc n phm ti chnh,... Tt nhin iu cm k ny khng bao gm
cc qung co bnh thng trn cc phng tin truyn thng v c phn bit r nh
vy.

Phao tin tht thit hay gy lc hng

Cc nh kinh doanh giao dch chng khon b cm s dng v th ca mnh to ra cc

trung tm nh hng v ni a ra kin nhm lung lc khch hng bng vic truyn b
hoc cung cp cc thng tin sai lc hoc tht thit phc v cho mc tiu li ko qun
chng mua hay bn mt loi c phiu c th no .

Chy trc
Hnh ng chy trc lin quan ti nhng tnh hung theo mt nh kinh doanh mi
gii chng khon trong khi ang gi mt lnh mua hay bn ca khch hng c bit l
cc khi lng ln c chiu hng lm bin i th trng li thc hin mua hoc bn
cho mnh cng pha vi lnh ca khch hng, trc khi a lnh ra th trng.

Nu l lnh mua, nh kinh doanh mi gii khng c mua ring cho mnh vi gi bng
hay thp hn gi sau s thc hin cho khch hng.

Tng t trng hp khch hng ra lnh bn th cng ty khng c bn chng khon

cng loi cho ti khon cng ty mnh bng hoc cao hn gi sau s thc hin cho
khch hng.

p gi, tr gi, cht gi

Bt c n lc ch quan no nhm to mt p lc lm cho gi mt chng khon no

b hm li mc thp, hoc y gi xung thp hn, c xem l hnh ng p gi. iu
ny b ln n v cm k trong th trng chng khon.

Tng t cc tc ng ch nhm duy tr mt gi cao gi to hoc cht gi n nh

mt cch khng bnh thng i vi mt chng khon u l cc hnh vi sai phm v b
cm.

Bn cnh cc bin php gim st v duy tr s tun th cc iu cm c th trn y, c

th ni, ton b th trng chng khon c vn hnh da vo mt h thng nghip v,
k thut, quy phm,... c chun ho cao . Cc hot ng trong th trng chng
khon hu nh tt c u da trn nhng 'ng ray' theo mt trt t n khp nhau. S
tinh t v nhy cm pht i t hiu lc ca h thng. .. gip cho ngi ta c th o c
trung thc theo yu cu fair play cho c nhng thng v cc k ngn d phi tnh
bng giy.

Tnh k lut trong th trng chng khon do c th hin t cc chun mc chuyn su

v cng k nh vy, ngi u t khi giao dch trong th trng ny cn thit phi nh
n chuyn vin t vn hoc cc broker.

C nn chuyn i mc tiu u t tm kim li nhun khc?

Chuyn i mc tiu u t tm kim nhng khon li nhun khc ln hn lun l l

thng trong hot ng ca cc nh u t. Th trng chng khon khng phi lc no
cng d dng nh mong mun: c nhng lc th trng chng khon ln gi khin nhiu
nh u t mng ra mt, nhng cng c khi th trng st gim lm khng t nh u t
mt n mt ng. Nhiu ngi chuyn hng u t trnh thua l. Nhng liu
nhng hnh ng nh vy c phi vo thi im no cng c coi l thch hp?
Cu hi t ra vi cc nh u t chng khon l h c nn rt tin u t mua tri
phiu, vng hoc ngoi t mnh trc vic gi c phiu st gim khng? Cu tr li
khng d dng cht no, bi v c mt iu khng th ph nhn l yu t bt n tm l
lun l k th ca cc nh u t.

Mt quyt nh mua hay bn th trng chng khon c th nh hng rt ln n ton

b qu trnh u t ca bn. Ti M v chu u, rt nhiu nh u t c nhn tm n
cc chuyn gia t vn, nhng nh mi gii chuyn nghip trc khi quyt nh u t.
iu ny gn nh tr thnh ng nhin, bi nu bn c mt quyt nh u t khng
sng sut th vic khc phc hu qu s lm bn au u hn nhiu. Tt nhin, khi b thua
l th nhiu nh u t t ra chn nn vi th trng chng khon. Thc t, nu th trng
chng khon c th em li li nhun ln trong mt thi gian ngn th cng c th lm
cho nh u t chng khon thua l ln cng trong mt thi gian nh vy. Do vy, nhng
nh u t tham gia vo th trng cn phi chp nhn lut chi .

Patrick W Cabe, ph tng gim c Citibank, ngn hng ln nht nc M, khi nhn xt
v s tng gim gi cc loi c phiu trn th trng chng khon cho bit: Th
trng bin ng qu nhanh v tnh n nh km. y l nhng nhn t nh hng n
kh nng huy ng vn thng qua th trng chng khon ca cc cng ty nim yt. Mt
s nh u t rt tin khi ti khon mua vng khi gi vng tng kh mnh trong
thi gian gn y. Ti cho rng, cc nh u t ny nu bt chc mt s khch hng ca
ngn hng rt la M (USD) bn ly ng ni t ri i mua vng, th h s b thua
thit.

D tr vng c iu bt li l khng sinh li nh kiu cho vay. N c iu li duy nht l

trong thi gian di va qua gi vng tng ln ng k. Vy u t vo vng nhiu hay
t l tu thuc vo s tin on v bin chuyn ca gi vng trn th trng quc t. Bin
ng ny thay i tu theo ba thi k nh sau:

- T nm 1930-1968: gi vng trn th trng th gii gn nh n nh mc 35

USD/Ounce = 35 USD / 31,103 gr. Bt c ai tch tr vng cng u mt mt khon tin
li v nhng khon li tc, trong khi h c th dng vn u t vng vo vic u t th
khc. Trong thi k ny u t vng bt li hn so vi u t ngoi t.

- T 1968 - thng 7 nm 1973: Gi vng bt u chuyn bin mnh, nht l t ngy

15-08-1971 khi M quyt nh th ni ng USD, cho gi vng bin chuyn theo lut
cung cu trn th trng. V vy, gi vng t di 40 USD/ ounce ln ti 130 USD/ounce
vo thng 7 nm 1973, ri c th thng trm theo chiu hng i ln theo mt gi ca
ng M kim, xut pht t tnh trng lm pht v thm thng trong cn cn thanh ton
ca M. Tnh trng ko di ti 1980 vi gi gn 700 USD/ounce.

- T nm 1988 cho ti nay di tc ng ca s ho du gia ng v Ty, gi vng

gim mnh, t 460 USD (thng 5 nm 1988) li thng trm theo chiu hng i xung ti
mc ch cn 370 USD (thng 5 nm 1989), tng ln 400 USD vo cui nm 1989 v u
nm 1990 nhng ri dn dn gim xung mc 350 USD vo thng 6 nm 1998, n nay
gi vng ang trong xu hng tng tr li. Gi vng trong nm 2006 ny c nhiu kh
nng s ph v cc k lc trc . Hin nay mc cn k thut 575 USD/ounce b ph
v v th trng ang nhm n mc 600USD/ounce. Tuy nhin, d on trong tng lai
gi vng khng th ln cao c nh trc y m s c khuynh hng n nh lu di

Gi vng tng ch l nht thi do yu t tm l, do vy khi c sc tm l qua i th s bnh

n tr li v c th gi vng s thp hn thi im hin nay. Nhng ngi rt tin i mua
vng s chu thit bi phi mua t bn r v thit hi ny s ln hn bnh thng khi h
mua ng vo thi im vng ang st.

i vi vic u t ngoi t, hnh thc ny c im li hn so vi u t vng l c th

dng ngoi t mua nhng tri phiu ngn hn trn th trng quc t. S thng d
ngoi t dng vo mc ch sinh li ni trn bao gm nhng ngoi t mnh c t do
chuyn i. Cn c mi din bin ca thanh ton quc t, cc nh u t s phn tch,
tnh ton c th chuyn i t mt th ngoi t ang mt gi sang th ngoi t mnh
khc ang tng gi. Khng nn u t vo nhng ngoi t khng chuyn i t do c.

Patrick khuyn rng hn ch bt ri ro, nhng nh u t nh cn quan tm n cc

loi tri phiu v tri phiu c an ton v tnh n nh cao hn. Thut ng Corporate
bond khng cn xa l vi nhiu nh u t ngy nay, bi y l mt trong nhng
phng thc u t an ton v hiu qu. Hin nay, tri phiu ngoi t m cc ngn hng
thng mi ang pht hnh c th coi l mt c hi rt tt cho nhng nh u t mun
tm kim mt cng c u t ti chnh thch hp.

Mc d vy, theo Patrick th mc d u t vo tri phiu khng th em li li nhun

nh u t c phiu, nhng cc nh u t cn hiu rng, li nhun ln lun i km vi
mc ri ro cao v trong mt th trng c tnh n nh km th ri ro s cng ln,
chng hn nh ri ro v li sut th trng, gi ca mt tri phiu cng ty s thay i theo
hng ngc li vi li sut th trng. Khi li sut th trng tng, gi tri phiu s gim
v ngc li. Hay khi bn mt tri phiu trc ngy o hn, th khi li sut th trng
tng, nh u t s l vn, c ngha l bn tri phiu thp hn gi mua vo. Tri phiu
cn vng phi ri ro v lm pht. Ri ro ny xut hin khi tr gi lu lng tin mt ca
mt tri phiu thay i do lm pht. V d, nu nh u t mua mt tri phiu c li sut
8%/nm, nhng t l lm pht l 9%/nm, th thc t, sc mua lu lng tin mt
gim. Ngoi tr tri phiu li sut th ni, cn u t vo tt c tri phiu khc u chu
ri ro lm pht, v mc li sut c cng ty pht hnh cam kt s c nh trong sut k
hn ca tri phiu.

C th ni, khng c hnh thc u t no l an ton v hiu qu tuyt i c. Trc y,

khi ni v kinh nghim u t ca mnh, cc nh u t thnh t nht trn th gii nh
W.Buffet hay G.Soros... u hay nhc n hai k th m h cho rng khng th i tri
chung, l lng tham v ni s hi. Hai k th ny nm ngay trong con ngi cc
nh u t m chnh h li khng bit, hay c bit th cng ht sc ch quan khng
cho n khi tht bi xy ra. iu quan trng nm chnh l s bnh tnh, bit kim ch
c nhng tnh ton hp l ca cc nh u t.
S l qu mun nu cc nh u t khng nhn ra rng th trng chng khon khng
phi l ni tiu tin nhanh v v b nht, cng nh khng phi l ni kim tin d dng
v nhn nh nht. V ch c nhng nh u t bit c ci u lnh v sng sut mi trnh
c s hi tic, nu mt ngy kia gi chng khon tng tr li.

Gi c bin ng nguyn nhn t u ?

Gi chng khon thay i hng ngy bi cc lc lng th trng tc ng t hai pha:

cung v cu. Nu c nhiu ngi mun mua (cu) hn mun bn (cung), gi s tng.
Ngc li, nu c nhiu ngi mun bn hn l mun mua (cung ln hn cu), gi chng
khon s gim.

Hiu c cung v cu l iu khng c g l kh khn. iu kh khn l nhn bit c

ci g l nguyn nhn khin ngi ta thch mt c phiu c th hoc khng thch mt c
phiu khc. Kt qu l, kh khn trn tr li vn : thng tin no l tch cc, thng tin
no l tiu cc vi mt cng ty. C rt nhiu cu tr li cho vn ny v ch xoay quanh
vic bt c nh u t no bn gp cng c quan im v chin lc ring.

Ngi ta ni rng, nguyn tc l thuyt l vn ng ca gi c mt c phiu cho thy iu

g khin nh u t cm thy cng ty mnh la chn l hp l. Khng nn co bng gi tr
cng ty vi gi c phiu. Gi tr cng ty chnh l gi tr th trng (bng gi c phiu
nhn vi s c phiu pht hnh). Gi c phiu khng ch phn nh gi tr hin ti ca
cng ty, m cn phn nh mc (tc ) tng trng m nh u t k vng trong tng
lai.

Nhn t quan trng nht phn nh gi tr cng ty l li nhun thu c trong di hn,
khng mt cng ty no c th tn ti m khng cn ti n. Cc cng ty c phn phi c
trch nhim bo co thng k tnh hnh li nhun ca mnh. T , nu kt qu t hay
vt k vng, gi c phiu s tng, v ngc li.

Tt nhin, khng phi ch c li nhun mi c th khin d cm v mt c phiu thay i

(nhn t khin gi c phiu thay i). Chng hn, c hng t cng ty coi Internet l mt
thnh t quan trng trong hot ng kinh doanh (dot-com company) c th gia tng gi tr
th trng ln hng t USD m thm ch khng kim c mt ng li nhun no.

Tt c chng ta u bit rng, nhng gi tr trn khng th ko di mi, v hu ht cc

cng ty nh vy nhn thy gi tr ca h gim mnh. Cho n gi, s tht l gi c khng
bin ng ph thuc vo nhiu nhn t ch khng ch c li nhun hin ti. Cc nh u
t hnh thnh hng trm bin s, t l v ch s. Nhiu ch s bn tng bit ti, nh
P/E, Chaikin Oscillator hoc MACD.

Vy th ti sao gi c phiu thay i ? Cu tr li tho ng nht l, khng ai bit chc

chn. Nhiu ngi tin rng, khng th d on gi c phiu s bin ng ra sao, trong khi
nhng ngi khc cho rng, bng vic xy dng cc biu v nhn vo xu hng gi
trong qu kh, bn c th xc nh khi no th nn mua, khi no nn bn. iu duy nht
chng ta bit chc chn l gi c thay i ht sc mau l.

C nhiu l thuyt nhm gii thch cch thc gi c phiu bin ng, nhng chng c l
thuyt no c th gii thch tt c.

Lut chi ca cc nh to gi trn th trng chng khon

Cc nh to gi khi a ra cc bo gi cho mt chng khon no ngoi mc ch kinh

doanh cn c yu cu gip cho th trng t c mt gi giao dch tt nht (gi thu vo
cao nht v gi bn ra thp nht). Tuy nhin trong qu trnh cnh tranh v thc hin ch
ch quan ca mnh, do say sa mun ginh nh hng vi cc i tc khc, h c th lm
cho th trng b tr ngi k thut. Do mt s lut l c t ra nhm duy tr trt t
th trng v loi b cc s c do nhm ln.

Hai tnh hung c nu sau y lu cc nh to gi khng c a gi ci kho (gi

l locked market) v gi vt cho (crossed market) vo h thng.

Th no l th trng b ci kho?

Ta bit rng mt bo gi ca cc nh to gi a vo h thng gm c gi thu vo (bid)

v gi bn ra (offer). Gi s b ci kho khi no hai gi dng tham kho (gi tt nht)
khng c khon chnh lch gi. C th, mt nh to gi a ra gi thu vo (bid) bng
ng vi gi bn ra (offer/ask) c mt nh to gi khc cho trc s lm th
trng b ci vo th kho li.
V d, gi nh lc u ch c mi mt nh to gi ALFA a bo gi vo h thng bo
gi cho chng khon TNA (mt chng khon OTC gi nh). n lt cng ty chng
khon khc, cng ty DELTA tham gia to gi cho chng khon TNA v khoanh th
trng li i vi chng khon ang c to gi ny.

Th trng b ci kho hay b khoanh li ch "hai ta" lm n vi nhau thi (c th v

hnh). Trng hp trn y gi bn ra ca cng ty CK ALFA v gi mua vo ca cng ty
chng khon DELTA bng nhau, l 20,5 USD. Do trong bo gi cn nu c s lng sn
sng giao dch, gi l "firm bid" v "firm ask", (nu khng ghi th mc nhin l 1 l =
100 c phn), cho nn, theo nguyn l hai cng ty ny s giao dch vi nhau cho n khi
cn ht lng cho bn "cng" . Kt qu cn kit ny rt cuc c th gii to th
trng, nhng lc th trng s c mt tnh hung gi t hn (khong chnh lch ln
hn).

Th no l mt th trng b vt cho?
Mt th trng b gi l vt cho khi mt nh to gi a ra gi thu vo (bid) cho mt
chng khon mc cao hn gi bn ra (offer/ask) do mt nh to gi khc nhp vo
h thng (v d h thng Nasdaq). Tng t nu c mt gi bn ra (ask) thp hn gi thu
vo (bid) trong h thng i vi chng khon cng loi, th th trng ny cng b "tro
ngoe". Tnh hung ny lm cho th trng tc t, cho nn tt c cc h thng giao dch th
trng OTC u khng cho php cc thnh vin bo gi c th gy vt cho cho th
trng.

Mt th trng gi vt cho cho hu qu cn t hn trng hp n b ci kho. Bt u

l cho gi ca cng ty ALFA. Sau , cng ty chng khon DELTA tham gia a tip
gi ca mnh vo h thng, m khng cn tham kho cho gi ca cng ty ALFA, kt
qu: Gi thu vo (bid) ca DELTA lc ny l 21 USD vt cho so vi gi bn ra
(ask) ca cng ty ALFA ang l 20.5 USD. Hu qu ca vic a gi tu tin ny lm
cho gi th trng ang bnh thng vt ln mt gi mi kh cao. Trong v d trn y,
vi gi rao mua (bid) ca DELTA (21 USD) s kch bn, v theo nguyn l, gi cng
vi gi ask 20.5 USD ca ALFA, s nhanh chng bin mt, khot rng khong cch gia
gi thu vo v bn ra s c h thng ghi nhn tip sau l "bid 20 - ask 22". Khon
lch gi lc ny l 2 USD, cn xu hn khon lch gi trong trng hp th trng b ci
kho nh kho st trn. Trong th trng chng khon, c bit l th trng giao
dch OTC, khi gi chng khon b kch ln hoc dm xung, m khng xut pht t vn
ng cung cu hp l ca th trng, th cc nh to gi c th b quy trch nhim
dng th thut vn hnh gi (manipulation).

Tm li, trnh tnh trng th trng b ci kho hoc b vt cho, lut l giao dch
OTC cm cc nh to gi khng c a vo h thng:

- Gi thu vo (bid) bng hoc ln hn gi bn ra (ask) ca mt nh to gi khc nhp

vo cho cng mt chng khon.
- Gi bn ra (ask) bng hoc nh hn gi thu vo (bid) ca mt nh to gi khc nhp
sn vo, i vi cng mt chng khon.

Cc nh to gi cng c lu rng, cc chng khon c bo gi v a vo h thng

phi l loi hp l v a vo u t cn tham kho thng tin v ch th pht hnh loi
chng khon h s thc hin d dng.

Nhng lu c bit khc v bo gi trn OTC:

Cc bo gi phi m bo tho mn cung cu mt lng chng khon t nht bng mt l

trn (100 c phn). y l mt cho gi c cam kt chc chn (firm).

Mt bo gi thng thng c yu cu phi km theo s lng. Tt c cc cho gi

c xem l c cam kt cng ngoi tr c ch nh khc r rng km theo. Cc ch nh
khng chc chn nh: "vo khong" (around), "cn tu thuc" (subject), "theo tnh
ton" (work out), ... s phi c ghi trc hay sau mt bo gi.
V nhng l do nghip v v k thut, h thng bo gi v xc nhn phi c thc hin
bng mng truyn in c v hin th ln mn nh, ch khng th lm vic ny ch bng
in thoi.

Thi im nn bn ra c phiu i vi cc nh u t?

Trong u t chng khon, nhiu nh u t thng mt ht vn ling khi gi c phiu

st gi m khng th no bn i c. Lc , nhng c phiu ny ch l nhng t giy
b i m thi. iu quan trng nht i vi bt c ai mun kinh doanh chng thnh
cng l nhn bit c thi im nn bn c phiu.

Vic xc nh thi im tt nht bn ra c phiu (c phiu) c xem l kh kh khn

i vi cc nh u t. Sau y l mt s du hiu gip nh u t trn th trng chng
khon c th nhn bit c thi im no nn bn ra c phiu.
C s thay i ln trong Ban qun tr cng ty

Nu nhng nh qun l hng u ca cng ty (nhng ngi chu trch nhim v s thnh
cng ca cng ty) bt u ri b cng ty th c th xem l du hiu bt li cho tng
lai ca cng ty. Khi cn phi theo di v pht hin xem ti sao li c nhng thay i
nh vy. c bit, khi pht hin ra nhng du hiu cho thy cng ty ang tr nn suy yu
trong lnh vc kinh doanh chnh th tt nht nn bn c phiu ca cng ty i v thay
vo l tm mua c phiu ca cng ty khc trong cng lnh vc nhng mnh hn v
c Ban qun tr n nh hn.

Khi yu t khin quyt nh mua c phiu khng cn na

Chng hn nh khi quyt nh u t vo c phiu ca cc cng ty dc phm bi v

trong lnh vc dc phm va pht minh ra loi thuc mi em li nhng ng gp ln
lao cho sc khe nhn loi. t nhin, mt thi gian sau ngi ta pht hin ra loi thuc
c nhng tc dng ph khng tt cho sc khe, iu ny khin cho th phn ca cng
ty b st gim v trong tng lai li nhun ca cng ty cng s gim. Khi nn bn c
phiu i v c phiu ny khng tnh cn hp dn na.

Cng ty t nhin ct gim c tc hoc b st gim v thu nhp

Trng hp ny nn iu tra cn thn trc khi quyt nh c nn bn c phiu hay

khng. Nu l do Ban qun tr cng ty quyt nh khng chia c tc tp trung vn cho
vic pht trin v m rng quy m cng ty th li l iu tt. Tuy nhin, thng th s
st gim v li nhun l du hiu cho thy tng lai ca cng ty gp nhiu kh khn v
trong trng hp ny th a s nh mi gii u khuyn khch hng bn c phiu i.
Khi cm thy th gi c phiu vt qua gi tr ni ti
C mt s nh u t d bit rng c phiu ca mnh vt qu gi tr ni ti nhng h
vn cha bn i v mun tr hon vic chu thu thu nhp. Tuy nhin, nu cm thy th gi
vt qua gi tr ni ti ca c phiu th nn bn c phiu i v gi li c phiu ny s
phi chu ri ro rt cao v ch c th tr hon vic chu thu ch khng th khng chu
thu. Ngoi ra, khi bn ra c phiu ny th s c c hi u t vo c phiu khc a
dng ha danh mc v gim thiu ri ro u t ca mnh.

Khi khng hi lng v danh mc u t hin ti

C th trong danh mc u t s c cc c phiu khng ph hp vi cc mc tiu ti

chnh t ra trc (nh l xy nh mi, chun b cho k hoch ngh hu...), khi tt
nht nn bn cc c phiu ny i v t chc li danh mc u t mi ph hp hn vi
mong mun ca mnh.

Gim thiu thua l trong u t chng khon

Khi bn ng thi u t vo nhiu loi chng khon khc nhau, s thua l ca mt loi
chng khon ch c tc ng nh n ton b danh mc u t, thm ch nhiu khi bn c
th b l bng li nhun thu c t cc chng khon khc trong cng mt danh mc .

Hiu mt cch khi qut nht th danh mc u t l mt tp hp gm t nht hai loi

chng khon tr ln. Mc ch c bn nht ca vic xy dng v qun l mt danh mc
u t l a dng ho nhm trnh cc khon thua l qu ln.

Tuy nhin, vic hn ch thua l bng cch a dng ho danh mc u t cng c mt ci

gi ca n: bn cng khng th thu c cc khon li nhun ln. Rt t ngi u t c
th thu c khon li nhun cao t vic u t tt c s tin ca h vo mt loi chng
khon tt nht hin c trn th trng. Do , i a s cng chng u t chn hnh thc
u t th hai l gim thiu ho thua l bng cch a dng ho u t. V suy cho cng
th vic t b nhng mn hi ln, bng lng vi nhng khon thu nhp va phi trnh
thua l qu mc l mt ci gi va phi v hon ton hp l.

Bi vit ny s hng dn bn tng bc trong vic xy dng mt danh mc u t ph

hp vi c tnh cng nh mc ch m bn chn.

Bc 1: Xc nh bn l ngi u t tch cc hay th ng?

Khi bt tay vo xy dng danh mc u t, iu quan trng trc tin m bn phi xc

nh l xem mnh thuc dng no: tch cc hay th ng? y l mt vic lm ht sc cn
thit, v n s quyt nh n ton b cch thc u t ca bn sau ny. Ngi u t tch
cc l ngi lun sn sng b ra rt nhiu thi gian v cng sc qun l danh mc u
t ca mnh. Cn ngi u t th ng th ch mun b ra mt khong thi gian ti thiu
cn thit theo di cc khon u t v bng lng vi cc khon li khim tn c c.
Cn lu rng quy m u t l khng quan trng m iu ct yu l bn tiu tn bao
nhiu thi gian v cng sc cho danh mc u t ca mnh. Chng ta c th thy rng a
s cc nh u t u thuc dng th ng, bi v h l nhng ngi khng chuyn
nghip, thiu k nng chuyn su cng nh b cc cng vic hng ngy chim mt qu
thi gian.

Bc 2: Quyt nh c cu ca danh mc u t.

iu th hai cn tnh n l t trng c phiu v tri phiu trong danh mc . y l

mt quyt nh mang tnh cht c nhn v tu theo quan im mi ngi. Mt s ngi
khng thch u t qu nhiu vo c phiu, cn mt s khc li khng thch s hu qu
nhiu tri phiu. Cho n nay vn cha c tiu chun c th v t l ny. Hin nay, a
s kin nghing v t l 50/50, tc l 50% s tin ca danh mc c s dng u t
vo c phiu, phn cn li s c s dng mua tri phiu. Nhiu nh t vn ngh
tng t l tri phiu trong danh mc khi ch s hu sp n tui v hu. Tuy nhin, mt
s c nhn khc li c quan im cho rng, trc sc p ca lm pht cng nh kh nng
kim tin s suy gim khi v gi, ch s hu danh mc nn tng dn t l c phiu theo
thi gian. H lp lun l khng nn gim t l s hu c phiu trong danh mc u t v
lng hu v bo him x hi s khng th tng nh lm pht. Chnh v vy m c
phiu l mt trong nhng la chn c u tin hng u chng li nh hng ca
lm pht. Tuy nhin, cng c khi thu nhp do c phiu em li khng theo kp vi t sut
li nhun ca tri phiu cht lng cao. Trong trng hp ny, u t vo cc tri phiu
cht lng cao v dnh mt khon tit kim i ph vi lm pht c xem l mt
bin php kh thi.

Ngoi ra cn mt trng hp khc m chng ta cng cn cp ti, l t trng ca

danh mc u t c cn phi iu chnh theo s bin ng ca th trng khng? Gi s
rng bn ang c trong tay mt danh mc u t vi t l 50/50. Nu th trng c phiu
tng gi v lm cho danh mc ca bn c t l 65% c phiu v 35% tri phiu th bn c
nn bn bt mt s c phiu a danh mc tr v t l 50/50 hay khng? Xung
quanh vn ny vn cn nhiu kin khc nhau nhng nhn chung i a s cc nh
u t s khng bn i c phiu phng trng hp khi c phiu gim gi th danh
mc s tr v mc cn bng 50/50.

Bc 3: a dng ho danh mc u t.

1. a dng ha t chc pht hnh. Nu danh mc u t ca bn ch bao gm ton b cc

tri phiu Chnh ph th bn khng cn phi a dng ho chng loi cc ch th pht
hnh, bi v tri phiu Chnh ph hon ton khng c ri ro. Tuy nhin, nu bn mua tri
phiu cng ty, tri phiu a phng hoc c phiu th vic a dng ho ch th pht hnh
l mt vn cn c cn nhc, bi v cc loi chng khon ny lun tim tng mt s
ri ro nht nh. Vn t ra l nn a dng ha n mc no? iu ny cn tu
thuc vo quan im ca mi c nhn. Chng hn nh nu bn mua c phiu ca 20 nh
pht hnh khc nhau v khi mt nh pht hnh chng may b ph sn th danh mc u t
ca bn ch b suy gim 5%. Mi nh u t s t a ra quyt nh cho danh mc u
t ca mnh da vo c tnh bn thn, tim lc ti chnh cng nh mc ri ro m h c
th chu ng.

2. Bn cnh vic a dng ho cc t chc pht hnh, bn cng cn a dng ho cc lnh

vc kinh doanh, a dng ha cc ngun thu hoc c th a dng ho theo v tr a l. Bn
cn ch rng, cng a dng ho th s cng hn ch c ri ro, tuy nhin ng nn a
dng ho qu nhiu v nh vy s tn rt nhiu cng sc qun l v n mt lc no
th danh mc s vt qu tm kim sot ca bn.

Comex v bi hc t vic thng tin thiu trung thc

Trn th trng chng khon, din bin giao dch chng khon lun cho thy mt minh
chng c th v nh hng ca thng tin th trng ti gi chng khon. Cc loi chng
khon quan trng nu c bin i v gi s lun gy tc ng khng nh n th trng
chng khon. i khi lm hi ti nhiu nh u t.

S bin ng ca chng khon Comex (c phiu ca hng Comextic Lance), mt loi

chng khon quan trng trn th trng chng khon Hng Kng l mt v d cho thy s
tc ng trn.

Ln i chiu th nht l khi S giao dch chng khon Hng Kng cng b thng tin v
vic Tp on in t Comextic Lance ng k bn hn 1,8 triu c phiu ngn qu,
tng ng vi gi tr th trng khong 4 t USD Hng Kng. Vi thng tin ny, tnh
th giao dch tr nn khc hn mc d mi trc , trn th trng ang din ra mt
cuc dt ui gia ngi mua v ngi bn, ngi mua th c mua cho c, cn ngi
bn th thy rng hng ca mnh vn rt "c gi" nn khng ngu g m bn ra. V kt
qu giao dch vo ngy hm ch c 5000 c phiu Comex c chuyn nhng so vi
726.600 c phiu Comex t mua.

Khi nhn c thng tin cc nh u t hi h thc hin bn c phiu ang nm gi v

lm cho gi c phiu ca Comex lp tc st xung gi sn. Tip theo s kin ny, cc c
ng ca Comex o t bn ra trong 12 phin giao dch lin tc lm cho gi b rt ti
mc cc im (mi phin gim 5%) ch cn 14USD/c phiu. Cng vi nhng din bin
ny th vic bn c phiu ngn qy ca Comex vn mi ch l ng thi "rung cy" lm
hong cc nh u t non gan ch bn thn tp on Comextic Lance cha thc hin bn
ra mt ng c phiu ngn qu no.

Trong khi, S giao dch chng khon Hng Kng vn ang loay hoay tm bin php gii
quyt vng mc ca Comex v cc quy nh hin hnh ang thc s b chn c Comex
ln S giao dch th Comex thc s cha c "thnh tnh" nghim tc thc hin vic bn c
phiu ngn qu v din bin th trng vn c th Comex bn c c phiu d t hay
nhiu. Trc thi ca Comex, S giao dch chng khon Hng Kng c yu cu
Comex phi thc hin vic bn c phiu ngn qu theo ng nh ng k. Th trng
chng khon Hng Kng mt ln na b xo ng bi thng tin ny v lm cho c phiu
Comex rt gi. Sau nhiu phin lin tc tng gi t 14 USD/c phiu ln ti mc 40
USD/c phiu, th by gi gi ca Comex tip tc rt xung gi sn v ch cn 13
USD/c phiu.

Ch trong thi gian ngn, gi chng khon Comex bin ng 2 ln. Hon ton trong
thi gian ny khng c bt k mt thng tin no ca Comex c cng b lin quan n
hot ng sn xut kinh doanh c th sc lm thay i chiu hng giao dch,
ngoi tr thng tin lin quan n vic bn c phiu ngn qu ca Comex.

Gii chuyn mn ti Hng Kng t ra thc s lo lng trc nhng bin ng ang din ra
trn th trng chng khon. Vic nghim khc nhn nhn li rt kinh nghim v tm ra
nh hng ng cho th trng thc s rt cn thit trong lc ny.

Th nht, S giao dch chng khon Hng Kng cn phi c phng n c th khi duyt
cho Comex bn c phiu ngn qu. Giao dch c phiu ngn qu s c tc dng v nh
hng rt ln n gi chng khon c bit l trong tnh trng khi gi chng khon ln
cao.

Vic Comex thc hin bn c phiu ngn qu l huy ng vn thm v nu tnh gi tr th

trng thi im ng k th s c phiu ngn qu s c gi tr khong 4 t USD Hng
Kng, bng 1/2 vn ca Comex. Vi mt s tin ln nh vy th vic huy ng vn thm
ny nhm mc ch g? i hi ng c ng ca Comex cho php Comex m rng thm
sn xut nhng thi im trin khai cn kh xa v hn na nu nhn vo c cu ti chnh
ca Comex thy ngay rng Cng ty cn d tha vn v vic u t ti chnh ca Comex
khng cn thit. Vy th ti sao khng thc hin hon i cc khon u t ny m li
mun bn c phiu ngn qu? Hn na vic bn c phiu ngn qu s lm tng s lng
c phiu lu hnh ca Comex v lm nh hng khng nh n cc ch s P/E v EPS s
lm nh hng n cn cn cung cu.

Din bin th trng cho thy: sau hn 20 ngy cng b Comex vn cha bn c phiu
ngn qu ra. Chnh v vy, vic duyt cho Comex bn c phiu cng cn phi cn nhc
n khi lng bn ti a v ti thiu ca mi phin giao dch c nh hng nh th no
n th trng cng nh phng thc thc hin giao dch nu khi lng bn ln hn
10.000 c phiu trnh tnh trng khi thng bo ri mi tm phng thc thc hin.

Th hai, thng tin th trng cn phi c cng b mt cch kp thi trnh vic li dng
thng tin thu li, yu cu ca S giao dich chng khon Hng Kng gi Cng ty
Comex yu cu bn c phiu ngn qu phi sau gn na thng mi c cng b cng
khai cho cng chng. Sau thng tin ny, gi ca Comex b rt v cu hi t ra l trong
cc phin giao dch trc c hay khng vic li dng thng tin nhanh tay bn trc
khi gi rt.

S giao dch chng khon Hng Kng gi yu cu nhng liu Comex c thc hin
theo yu cu hay khng vn l mt cu hi. Trong nhng trng hp xu, S giao dch
chng khon Hng Kng hon ton c th s dng quyn ca mnh thc thi cc bin
php qun l to ra mt sn chi lnh mnh, cng bng v bnh ng.

B quyt la chn chng khon cho danh mc u t ca bn.

Mi y, Lane Jack v Peter Huge l hai ngi bn lu nm, h cng gp khon tin
dnh khong hn 200.000 USD u t vo th trng chng khon nhm tm kim li
nhun. Theo mt s nh mi gii chng khon, h u t vo c phiu ca hng
Chamber Lych, mt cng ty cng ngh ang ni ti min trung nc M m khng u t
vo mt cng ty lu nm cng trong lnh vc cng ngh l TechTech v cho rng cng ty
ang tht th.

Trong hai thng u tin u t, c phiu ca Lych lin tc tng gi v c phiu ca

TechTech th h gi dn. Nhng ch sau thi gian , t nhin c phiu ca TechTech li
tng gi rt cao, trong khi c phiu ca Chamber li ng yn thm ch c tin n l s
xung gi nn khng ai dm mua na. Kt qu, s tin ca hai ngi bn Lane Jack v
Peter Huge khng pht sinh li nhun, thm ch c nguy c mt sch. C Lane Jack v
Peter Huge u tic nui v khng u t vo c phiu ca TechTech.

Trong u t chng khon vic la chn c phiu s l rt quan trng. N s quyt nh

vic thnh bi ca c qu trnh u t. Nhiu khi nh u t khng nn nghe theo nhng
g nh mi gii chng khon ni m hy da vo chnh s phn tch v suy xt ca mnh.

Mua loi c phiu no

Khi quyt nh u t vo c phiu thng phi nghin cu xem loi c phiu no l

hiu qu nht. y chnh l lc cn nhng thng tin v phn tch chng khon v tnh
hnh cng ty v t c cch no mt tin nhanh hn l mua phi chng khon khng tt.

Mt s tiu thc so snh v la chn:

- Chn ngnh c phiu: ngnh cng nghip, nng nghip, giao thng vn ti, ti chnh hay
dch v cng cng... C th i vo nhiu ngnh chi tit hn, v d trong cng nghip c
th l cng nghip khai thc, cng nghip ch bin hoc cng nghip sn xut. Phn tch
tng ngnh kinh t v tnh cht, th trng, kh nng pht trin, tng trng bnh qun,
kh nng cnh tranh, nh hng c tnh cht chu k;

- Chn bt c cng ty no trong ngnh no th cng nn phn tch tnh hnh cng ty
trn cc mt: tnh hnh ti chnh, li nhun, li tc c phn, nhu cu vn, tnh hnh huy
ng vn v nhng loi chng khon ch yu ca cng ty, nh gi tnh hnh c phiu
ca cng ty v mt ti chnh, v tr ca cng ty trong ngnh, trnh ban qun tr, ban
iu hnh v chnh sch qun tr ca cng ty, a im, vn ti, lao ng, nguyn liu,
bng sng ch pht minh, v.v...
Mun phn tch thu o gi tr c phiu ca mt cng ty th phi xem xt nhng nhn t
k trn, ng thi phi tham kho s nh gi ca cc Trung tm phn tch chng khon,
cc t chc xp loi doanh nghip. Ngoi ra, cn ch n vic a dng ha c phiu u
t trnh c s vn ng ca chu k kinh doanh, s thay i v tr ca mt doanh
nghip... C th a dng ha theo nhiu cch nh: mua c phiu ca nhiu ngnh khc
nhau; mua c phiu ca cc cng ty khc nhau; mua c phiu ca nhiu khu vc khc
nhau; mua c phiu ca cc cng ty c nhng thnh phm khc nhau; mua nhng thi
im khc nhau... Tuy nhin, nu a dng ha u t qu mc cng s c nhng nhc
im nh: lm cho vic qun l kh khn, tn nhiu cng sc iu tra v phn tch, lm
tng chi ph mua bn, lm gim bt c hi t li nhun cao.

Khi no mua?

Mt cu tr li rt n gin l khi no cn thy c th mua. Bi v mt s khng t

nhng nh kinh doanh chng khon cho rng h thng sai lm trong vic nh gi v th
trng ni chung v mt s c phiu ni ring. Ni theo mt ngha no th nhng
ngi kinh doanh chng khon l nhng ngi u t gi tr, do vy c nhng ngi khi
thy cng ty trong giai on hng thnh th mua c phiu v thm ch c nhiu ngi
thch mua c phiu ca nhng cng ty ang giai on tht th.

T u th k XVIII th trng chng khon Ty u v th trng chng khon M

sau ny a ra hc thuyt u t ngc dng. Thuyt ny a ra li khuyn rng
vn c th li ngc dng sng. Thc t cho thy, u t ngc dng c kh nng ri
ro rt cao nhng cng c c may a n li nhun khng l bi v rt c th thi gian
tht th ca mt cng ty s c khi phc trong tng lai. C nhiu ngi c cng d
on lc quan nn s ngi u t ngc dng tng ln. Chnh hnh ng c nhiu
ngi c cng nhn nh, cng mua c phiu lm cho gi tr c phiu c phc hi
uy tn ngay khi cng ty ny cn tht th. Do vy, khng nht thit c phi mua c phiu
khi cng ty ang c uy tn tt m vn c th mua c phiu khi cng ty ang tht th.

Cc phng php phn tch gip bn u t c hiu qu!

bao gi bn nghe mt ai ni rng 75% s dao ng ca gi c phiu l do nhng

thay i chnh ngay t bn trong ngnh kinh doanh ? Tuy kh c th a ra con s d
on chnh xc nhng mt iu chc chn rng nhng xu hng trong mt ngnh c nh
hng rt ln n nhng li nhun v gi c phiu ca mi cng ty trong chnh ngnh .
Chnh v vy, chng ta cng nn nghin cu v tm hiu khng ch ring c phiu m cn
c nhng xu hng trong cc ngnh kinh doanh .

Cc nh u t thng dn tin u t vo nhng khu vc c u th hn ca th trng,

c gi l chuyn i u t ngnh. S chuyn i u t ny thng xuyn b tc ng
bi nhng s kin m c th nh hng khng ch n mt cng ty m n ton b ngnh
. V d, khi gi du tng, cc nh u t s khng u t tin mua c phiu ca
ngnh hng khng v vn ti m u t vo cc cng ty khai khc du hay cc cng ty
du ln. Khi , gi ca cc hng ho v sn phm ca nhiu ngnh c lin quan cng
thay i theo.

i khi, tin cn c u t vo nhiu khu vc khc nhau trn th trng l do nhng

bin ng trong nn kinh t. Chng hn nh, nhng thay i trong t l li sut c th dn
vic chuyn i u t vo mt s khu vc nhy cm v li sut trn th trng nh ngn
hng v mi gii chng khon, nhng i khi cng c th l khng. Do , vic chuyn
i u t ngnh tr thnh vn c bit quan trng trong sut qu trnh thay i ca
nn kinh t.

Chnh v vy, quyt nh xem nn tip tc u t vo ngnh no, cc nh u t c th

s dng cc phng php phn tch khc nhau nghin cu tng yu t m c th nh
hng n mi ngnh. Sau y l mt vi nt c bn v ba phng php phn tch vn
hay c s dng:

1) Phng php phn tch trc quan

Trong phng php ny, vic phn tch s tp trung nhiu hn vo tng ngnh v li
nhun thu c ca chnh ngnh . T , c th xc nh c c phiu ngnh no l
c phiu c tim nng nht. V d, cc cuc bo lc din ra Trung ng l l do chnh
khin gi du tng, lc cc nh u t s ch n ngnh nng lng tm c hi v
gi c phiu ca ngnh ny tng cao v khi d nhin gi c phiu ngnh hng khng s
gim. Nhiu cng ty mi gii chng khon a ra cc bn bo co thng xuyn v
cc ngnh, v sau p dng cc phng php phn tch ny a ra nhng nh gi.

2) Phng php phn tch k thut

Phng php ny c coi nh l mt cch tip cn khc i vi vic chuyn i u t

ngnh. l cch chung nht c s dng lp v nghin cu nhng biu ca cc
ch s ngnh khc nhau. Chng hn nh chng ta c th dng phng php ny lp
biu v chng khon v t xc nh cc du hiu giao dch. V c bn, vic phn
tch ny thng s dng cc ch s ngnh khc nhau thy nhng thay i ang din ra
trn th trng. Sau , vic la chn chng khon v cc nhm ngnh u t s c
da trn nhng nghin cu .

Phng php ny c tp on Chartcraft New York s dng trong nhiu nm qua

xc nh phn trm c phiu ang c du hiu c mua vo so vi phn trm c
phiu c bn ra v t tm cc nhm ngnh c tim nng nht cng nh t c tim
nng nht.

3) Phng php phn tch nh lng

y l phng php t c s dng nht. Mt s cng ty s dng cc m hnh xp

hng cc nhm ngnh da vo li nhun thu c, t l li sut, thay i v gi v.v. Cc
con s ny c a vo mt cng thc v sau cc ngnh c xp hng da vo cc
kt qu va thu c. C l cng c ph bin nht l h thng xp hng Value Line
Invesment Survey. H thng ny c p dng cho c chng khon v nhiu nhm ngnh
khc.

Nhn chung, nhiu nh kinh doanh thng kt hp ba phng php trn nghin cu
cc ngnh hoc nhm ngnh c th. Nhng iu quan trng l tm ra cc khu vc th
trng c tim nng nht hoc khu vc t c tim nng nht c cc chnh sch u t
mt cch hiu qu. Vic s dng kt hp ny s gip bn mt cch ng k trong vic la
chn c phiu v lch s t trc ti nay cho thy vic gi c phiu c nhn dao ng
thng l do nhng thay i khng ch trong cng ty m cn do c cc nhm ngnh khc
c lin quan.

Ba li thng gp khi u t

vo thi im nn kinh t ang pht trin rt nhanh chng nh ngy nay, ngy cng c
nhiu ngi c mc thu nhp cao hn. Hu ht mi ngi u mun s tin ca mnh
sinh li vi mc ri ro thp. Cch tt nht c c li nhun nh vy l u t, nhng
bn phi bit cch u t sao cho c hiu qu nht.

Mc d mi ngi u bit cch u t sao cho c hiu qu nhng vn c rt nhiu ngi

khng bit cch gim ti thiu nhng ri ro khi tin hnh u t. a dng ho danh
mc vn u t s gip cng vic u t t ri ro hn.

C rt nhiu ngi u t tin ca mnh mt cch m qung. Tuy bn lun lun hc c

t nhng ngi thnh cng trong vic u t nhng bn cha bao gi nghe thy hng
trm v u t lm mt cc khon tin tit kim ln v thm ch l c cn nh v h
khng a ra c k hoch trc khi u t.

Hy bo v s tin ca mnh bng cch trnh nhng li thng gp m cc nh u t hay

mc phi:

1. Ch nhn gi c phiu mt cch phin din

Nhiu ngi tin vo s may mn trong cuc sng. Khi h thy gi c phiu ang t 0.75
USD ln 40 USD qua mt m, ngay lp tc h s u t cc khon tin tit kim
mong c c hi giu ln mt cch nhanh chng. Khi bn hi h v cng ty m h ang
u t, h ch bit l mua c phiu ch khng bit mt cht g v lnh vc m cng ty
ang m nhim. Kiu u t ny khng khc g l chi tr nh bc. Trn thc t, bn
ng vai tr nh l ngi lm ci trong mt tr chi sng bc. Hy tng tng xem,
bn s cm thy nh th no nu gi c phiu ca cng ty ny gim 0,15 USD/c phiu.
Nu bn mun c c hi vi vic mua bn c phiu th t nht bn cng phi tm hiu v
sau a ra nhng kt lun chnh xc.
- Cng ty ny c thuc ngnh ang pht trin khng?

- Cng ty ny c gp vn g rc ri trc y khng?

- Cng ty ny lm n c li nhun cao khng?

- Cng ty ny c vn u t thp hay cao v c k hoch pht trin thm hay khng?

- Cng ty ny c t l P/E cao hay khng?

- Nhng lnh vc hot ng hay kinh doanh chnh ca cng ty ny l g?

y ch l nhng cu hi rt cn thit m bn nn t t ra cho mnh trc khi mun u

t s tin ca mnh vo bt c mt ngnh ngh hay lnh vc no. Nu mt ngi a cho
bn nhng c phiu c gi cao m khng c nhng cu tr li tho ng cho nhng cu
hi trn th bn cng ng nn u t tin qu nhiu mua c phiu ca cng ty ny.

2. Khng bit c nhng tnh hung xu nht

u t trong trng hp ny c bo m khng? Bn s phi ng nhng loi thu v ph

g nu bn rt tin? Phi lun m bo rng bn thy c nhng tim nng trc khi
mun u t vo bt c lnh vc hay ngnh ngh g?

3. Khng a dng ho ngnh ngh u t

Khng nn ch tp trung vo mt kiu u t? Hy u t s tin mnh c vo cng tri

hay mt s c phiu th an ton hn l u t vo mt ngnh hay mt cng ty. Khi u t
nh vy s gim mc ri ro cho bn v c th mt vi ngnh tng trong khi mt vi
ngnh khc li gim.

Nhn chung, bn khng th mua mt chic t m khng kim tra k trc khi mang n
v nh. u t cng vy, bn cng phi xem xt v phn tch k trc khi b tin ra u
t vo bt c lnh vc hay ngnh ngh no.

Kinh nghim u t t mt cy i th

Ti khng bao gi mua c phiu n l m s mua ton b cng ty. C th bn s ngc

nhin nhng l cng thc u t ca ti, Warren Buffet, mt trong nhng nh u t
ti chnh thnh cng nht th gii ni nh vy khi nhn nh v cc cuc u t ca
mnh. Nhiu ngi t hi khng bit nhng chin thut u t nh vy ca Warren Buffet
c hiu qu hay khng?

Trong sut s nghip u t ca mnh, Warren Buffet thng quan tm nhiu ti cc

thng s c bn mt ca cng ty nh tc tng trng doanh s v li nhun, t rt
ra nhng kt lun v gi tr thc t ca c phiu cng nh ca c cng ty. Sau , bng
cch so snh th gi c phiu vi gi tr thc t, ng quyt nh c nn mua cng ty hay
khng. V thay v mua c phiu, Warren Buffet chuyn qua mua cc cng ty (thng
l ca nn kinh t c v a dng ho t nhn) c bn vi gi r trong thi k bng n
cng ngh. Vi trong s ny thuc cc loi hnh hot ng bo him, nhng cng ty khc
thuc cc ngnh khc nhau nh hng sn Benjamin More, hng kinh doanh thm Shaw,
hng dch v cng cng MidAmerican Energy v gn y nht l hng Pampered Chef,
mt hng t nhn chuyn tip th trc tip dng bp nc. Kt qu l nhng c ng ni
ting kh tnh ca Berkshire phn no c gim nh p lc vi danh mc u t gn
y t khong 26 triu USD.

Thng qua nhng v mua li nh vy (khong 20 cng ty trong vng 5 nm), i ng

nhn vin ca Berkshire tng ln mnh m. Ngy nay, 145.000 ngi dn nc M c
th t ho ng ln m khoe rng ti lm vic cho Warren Buffet. y cng l cng ty
t nhn ln th 25 nc M, vi thu nhp bnh qun trn u ngi cao hn c PepsiCo
v Marriott.

Vy bng cch no m Warren Buffet tm v mua c cc cng ty mi khuych

trng thm s ln mnh ca Berkshire? Mt cch in hnh, chng t n vi ng. ng
ni Ngy nay, ngi bn xut hin trong hai trng hp. Mt l bn lin h c vi ni
ngi ta cn bn (tc h mun cng ty h thnh mt phn ca Berkshire). Hai l, bn
nhn c nhng cuc gi t nhng ni ngi ta cn tin mt v cn tin mt nhanh.
Berkshire Hathaway t ho l nhng ngi mua c th cung cp tin mt trong vng mt
tun.

Tp trung vo cc k hoch u t ca a con cng

Trung tm cuc i Warren Buffet khng phi l th trng chng khon rng ln m l
Berkshire Hathaway, cng ty con cng ca ng. Cng d hiu c rng hot ng ca
Berkshire chnh l cha kho dn n nhng b quyt u t ti chnh ca Warren Buffet.
Theo cng s Charlie Munger (cng l hi vin chi golf cng vi Tom Murphy, cu
gim c CapCities v Don Graham, CEO ca Washington Post Co) th: Berkshire c
vn hnh cc oan n mc rt nhiu ngi khng hiu y v cng ty ny. Chng ti
c tng ph thp hn v ra quyt nh u t vo th trng chng khon nhanh hn bt
k cng ty no c tm c nh chng ti trn th gii.

Thc kh m ni qu rng Berkshire khc nhng cng ty khc nh th no. y l mt

tng cng ty vi nhng hot ng tm c trong lnh vc bo him, ng nhiu vn trong
nhng cng ty khng l ca M nh Coke, Gillette v American Express. Berkshire cng
thng lnh ngnh kinh doanh ng dn ga v cc dch v cng cng quan trng, ngoi ra
hng cn s hu nhiu n k l cc loi hnh hot ng bnh thng nh i l bn l
c, hiu trang sc, nh my giy... Berkshire pht trin khng vi mt k hoch quy
m hay bn ch dn chin lc no nhng cu trc hu hnh ca n c th mang ti
cho cc nh u t mt gc nhn tt vo t tng Warren Buffet. Chng hn: Nhiu nm
nay, Berkshire c bit ting nht nh mt cng ty bo him vi nhng gi tr c ng
ln k trn.
Pampered Chef - v u t thc hin trong vng vi pht

Pampered Chef, v mua li gn y nht ca Warren Buffet c th em li cho mi ngi

nhiu iu v nhn quan u t ca ng. Nu l nam gii hoc khng thch nu n, c th
bn cha bao gi nghe ni n cng ty ny. Nu khng, rt c th bn bit n ting t
cc chuyn gia Pampered Chef chuyn bn gia dng bp nc ti cc ba tic trong
nh h.

20 nm trc, sng lp vin Doris Christopher vay 3000 USD t mt hp ng bo

him sinh mng khi s cng ty ny, nh th b c th linh ng thi gian dnh cho
hai a con gi nh. Ngy nay, cng ty ny c trn 700 triu USD doanh thu n t
70.000 nh marketing trc tip, nhng ngi t chc trn 19000 cuc biu din trong nh
mi tun. C th ni, kh nng sinh li ca Pampered Chef rt cao vi nhng li nhun
m ngi khc phi m c.

Nhng ngay c khi thnh vng nh vy, Christopher bit rng b cn c mt k hoch
nh may b c qua i hay v tui cao m rt khi kinh doanh. B bit ting Warren
Buffet t lu v t trong lng b cng thy tr thnh mt phn cng ty ca Warren Buffet
l mt iu rt tuyt vi. Warren Buffet chp nhn mua li Pampered Chef gn nh ch
sau my pht u ni chuyn. D ch hai thng trc , Warren Buffet cha h bit n
h, ng c th nhn thy Doris v Sheila (CEO ca Pampered) rt yu thch kinh doanh.
Hn na, cu chuyn ca h c tt c nhng dng cn thit ca mt ct truyn c hu:
Pampered l mt cng ty c quyn li nhun cao ang pht trin, mt cng ty c th ni
l tm c bt u. V tm c l mt vn i vi Warren Buffet. l bi Berkshire
thc t ang pht trin rt nhanh v hin nhin l ln hn rt nhiu so vi n 10 nm
v trc. Doanh thu hng nm tng t 3 t USD ln gn 38 t USD trong thi gian
- vi a s tng trng n t cc v u t mua li c hiu qu nh Gen Re v Shaw
trc y. Berkshire sc mua li Pampered Chef.

khng thua l khi i ch chng khon

Vic kinh doanh chng khon v nhng khon li nhun ln ca n lun hp dn bn u

t vo chng khon. Th trng l ni trung gian ngi bn l cc cng ty, doanh
nghip bn chng khon nhm c vn di hn, ng thi gip ngi mua l cc nh u
t c ni gip nhng ng tin dnh dm ca mnh sinh si ny n theo thi gian cho
mt mc ch nh. Khi mua chng khon nh u t s c ba ci li: mt l c
cng ty chia li nhun gi l c tc, hai l c hng li vn khi chng khon ln gi v
lc no cn tin th c th bn chng i vi tnh thanh khon cao. y l mt qu trnh
i hi s phn tch v tnh ton. Vi nhng d tnh mua chng khon ca mnh, cc nh
u t cn c nhng hiu bit nht nh v ci ch phc tp ny.

Tm hiu v ch chng khon

Th trng chng khon l ci ch nhng chng ta s t i vo. Nu vo v c vo th
ch xem thng tin ghi trn mt ci bng in rng vi mt vung m thi, hn th na,
nhng thng tin y cng s c in li trn cc phng tin thng tin i chng hng
ngy. Ta cng s ch lin lc vi mt ngi mi gii ca mt cng ty chng khon no
mua hay bn chng khon.

Nu ai tng i ch trong i sng hng ngy th ci ri ro m bn d gp phi l tin

tht mua phi hng gi. Nhng ci ch chng khon th hng bn mua l tht nhng
vn c th b mt tin v tnh cht ln xung ca gi tr c phiu m bn bit. Bi vy,
s hot ng v iu hnh ca ci ch khng phi l iu ta quan tm m ci s phi
quan tm l gi tr ln xung ca cc hng ho m mnh nm gi. Nguyn do chnh lm
cho gi ln hay xung l hot ng sn xut kinh doanh ca cc cng ty pht hnh chng
khon; tc l cng vic lm n ca h th hin qau nhng thng tin hay nhng s phn
tch khc nhau v l tm l trn th trng. Bi vy, bn th thc s lin quan mt thit
vi bn khi i ch mua chng khon l: s thu hi ng vn b ra v li nhun pht
sinh, mt t bo cho bit tnh hnh gi c chng khon, nhng thng tin v hot ng ca
cng ty m mnh nm chng khon v mt ngi mi gii.

Mt chin lc u t hp l cng danh mc u t cn i s ti u ho hot ng u

t ca bn. Khi cha l chuyn gia, bn cng nn nghe li khuyn ca nhng nh u t
i trc, bi c hc hi v bit tip thu bn mi c th tr thnh mt nh u t lo luyn.
Sau y l mt s li khuyn ca John Neff, mt trong nhng nh u t thnh t nht
ph Wall, i vi cc hot ng u t ca bn trn th trng.

Hn ch ri ro

trnh nhng hn ch ri ro khi i ch mua hng, bn nn a dng ho, chia phn ti

sn ca bn ra, iu ny c ngha l phn chia s tin ca bn trong nhiu kiu u t vi
nhng t l khc nhau. Thc s nguyn tc ny khng sai, nhng bn nn i ngc li
nhng kin thc thng thng ny, ngay c khi n c th gy ra cho bn i cht lo lng
ban u. Copy nhng g tt c mi ngi ang ngh v lm trn th trng c l s cho
bn cm gic yn tm, nhng thc s n khng phi iu ng lm nht.

a dng qu nhiu s dn bn ti s thiu ht v kin thc cng nh trng tm v vic

u t ca bn. Nu mt ngi khuyn bn nn u t 45% vo c phiu, 80% vo tri
phiu, 10% vo chng khon nc ngoi, 10% vo qu th trng tin t Money Market
Fund, mt dng qu h tng u t m rng u t vo th trng huy ng vn ngn
hn, 5% vo vng, iu ny c th khin bn an tm hn nhng ng thi vic u t ri
rc ny s lm long i li nhun ca bn. C l bn khng nn u t vo vng, chng
khon nc ngoi, tri phiu v n s lm st gim li nhun chung. ng thi bn cng
khng th b tt c s tin kim c vo mt cng ty no , cho d cng ty y c l
Microsoft chng na. S sp ca Enron vo cui nm 2001 cho thy ngay c nhng
cng ty khng l vn c th ph sn nh thng. V bn hon ton c th gp trng hp
thiu may mn nh th. Tt nht bn nn b ht tin bc nh u t vo vi cng ty hng
u trong nhng lnh vc khc nhau. iu ny c v nh l mt s a dng ho hp l
hn.
Ngi u t c bo v

V nhng ri ro tim tng ca mnh, ci ch ny lun mang trong n mt chc nng

quan trng. Ngoi chuyn sp xp v thc hin cc giao dch, n tm cch bo v nh u
t bng cch t ra nhng quy nh i cc cng ty pht hnh phi nim yt chng khon
ti th trng, phi cng b thng tin hng nm v bng cn i k ton, bo co kt qu
hot ng kinh doanh, thuyt minh bo co ti chnh, Chng nhng th cng ty cn
phi cng b thng tin tc thi trong mt s trng hp nh khi lm n gp kh khn, ti
khon ngn hng b nh ch, phong to, hot ng kinh doanh b ngng qu ba thng,
sn phm chnh b nh ch tiu th, hoc ngay c khi thay i tng gim c v c cu c
ng chnh.

Nh u t trn th trng chng khon lun c bo v khi bt k s thua l phi th

trng no, k c thua l tim nng do ph sn, do hnh ng khng trong sch ca cc
nh mi gii, do gi mo ch k, do mi hnh thc bin th, k c bng vi tnh. Bn thn
ch chng khon cng ng ra cng b mt s thng tin v giao dch trn th trng qua
cc phng tin ca mnh nh trn bo ch, tivigip nh u t cnh gic vi vic u
t ca mnh.

Tm chn ngi mi gii

Khi i ch chng khon, bn phi c mt ngi i mua dm bn. Nhng xin nh cho l
khi bn i mua chng khon th mn hng m bn cm trong tay lc u khng phi l t
chng khon ca cng ty thc s nhn tin ca bn giao cho (tr khi bn l nhn vin
lm vic trong cng ty y) m t giy lm bng li do cng ty chng khon cp gi l
giy xc nhn. Trong th trng hng ho bn ch mua ch t khi bn, nn bn l thng
mt chiu, cn trong th trng chng khon, c khi bn mua, c khi bn bn nn bn
s l thng hai chiu. Bi th, phi chn mt cng ty chng khon tin cy hot
ng hai chiu v bt an. Khi chn mt cng ty, h s gii thiu vi bn mt
ngi mi gii v bn s lin lc vi bn ngi ny mi mi. C mt ngi mi gii, bn
phi k hp ng m ti khon vi cng ty chng khon v b tin vo trong .

Chn hng mua

Khi mt cng ty c pht hnh chng khon, c khi h bn thng cho nhn vin ca h,
nhng bnh thng h nh mt cng ty khc c chc nng bo lnh pht hnh tung ra th
trng. Cng ty sau ng tin cho cng ty trc, nhiu hay t tu thuc hai bn tho thun.
Giai on ny gi l th trng s cp.

Cng ty bo lnh nhn chng ch c phiu hay chng khon pht hnh v tm cch bn
i. Giai on ny gi l th trng chng khon th cp. H c th bn thng cho bn,
nu h ng thi cng l cng ty chng khon hoc h bn cho cng ty chng khon
khc cng ty chng khon ny tch tr sn ri bn cho bn. Trong qu trnh lng vng
chng khon ca cng ty pht hnh s nm trong th trng chng khon qua th tc
lu k. Chng khon bn mua t mt cng ty chng khon thng nm trong cng ty
y hay trong Phng lu k. Khi mua bn s nhn c Giy xc nhn t cng ty chng
khon, cng ty ny l thnh vin ca th trng chng khon nn hai l mt v chng
khon ca h cng l mt. Do vy, t mua chng khon ca mt cng ty bn chn m
do mt cng ty chng khon bn th bn c th chc l chng khon tht ca cng ty
mnh mun.

Mua hng ti ch

Trong ch chng khon c rt nhiu hng ho cho bn la chn, trong thi gian u bn
ch c mua mt hng ho ngha l ch c t mt lnh, gi l lnh gii hn, tc l khi
ra lnh bn s ni lun gi mnh mua. Cch thc giao dch vi ngi mi ra sao s tu
thuc tng ch v c nhn gia hai bn, cha k n tnh cnh tranh ca mi cng ty
chng khon. Tuy nhin, lnh bn a ra cho ngi mi gii s c t ra bn chi tit m
lut quy nh: chng khon mun mua, s lng, gi mua v thi gian hiu lc ca
lnh. Nh l mt iu t nhin, trc khi mua hng bn phi hi xem gi hin thi trn
ch ca hng l bao nhiu v c s lng ln hay khng, my l. Lnh mua hng ti
ch chng khon ca bn c th nh sau: Mua cho ti mt l chng khon ca cng ty
IBM, gi 49 USD, n 2 gi chiu th b. Khi gi xong, v nguyn tc, bn phi in
vo Phiu lnh v gi cho ch. Trn thc t, chc bn phi ch cho n khi mua c
hng, tc l lnh c thc hin. Khi y, ngi mi gii s bo cho bn bit xc nhn
gi c, s lng, loi chng khon. Bn s kim sot cn quy trch nhim nu ngi
mi gii lm khng ng lnh. Nu sau khi t lnh m bn mun i, v d mun bn
vi gi cao hn, hay mua r hn nh nghe ngng u , bn c th t lnh li vi iu
kin l lnh ban u cha xy ra, nu xy ra ri th bn phi gi lnh c v thanh ton
tin bc theo lnh . Nu n cui ngy khng c ngi mi gii bo l lnh dc
thc hin th c ngha l vic mua ca bn vo ngy khng xong, hai ngy sau phi
lm li.

V pha cng ty chng khon, trc khi nhp lnh vo h thng giao dch, h phi kim
tra ti khon ca bn v yu cu bn in vo Phiu lnh ngy giao dch v s gi cho bn
mt Giy xc nhn kt qu ngay trong ngy . Trong vng 5 ngy u ca mi thng,
cng ty chng khon s gi cho bn bn sao k ti khon. Vic mua hng ti ch ca bn
n y l ht. Bn gi giy xc nhn ca cng ty chng khon lm bng v ch cho khi
chng khon ln hay xung. Khi n ln bn c gi n mi, v cng ngy n cng ln gi.
Bn c th bn i ly li. Nu bn bn ngay i th bn nm trong thnh phn chi
chng khon hay ngi mo him. Nu gi li lu, bn l ngi u t cn thn hay
bo th. Ngoi ra hng nm bn cn c cng ty chia li gi l c tc v c cng ty
mi hp i hi ng c ng. Bn s c rt nhiu li ch ln khi i ch chng khon.

u t th no l hp l?

Goerge Soros, mt trong nhng nh u t ln nht ti ph Wall, tng ni rng

Khng c lnh vc no em li li nhun nhanh v ln bng u t chng khon. Qu
tht, Soros khng h sai khi trn th trng chng khon c nh u t kim c c
chc triu USD ch vng mt m vi mt k hoch u t hp l.

Th trng chng khon ang ngy cng pht trin mnh m hn vi nhng khon u t
khng l. Khng t ngi xem vic u t chng khon nh tham gia vo mt cuc chi
ngu hng vi hy vng vic mua chng khon s kim c nhiu tin nhanh chng. Tuy
nhin, lnh vc u t y hp dn ny dng nh khng c ch cho nhng quyt nh
theo cm tnh. Mun thnh cng bn phi c k nng phn on, xem xt v phn tch
vn . iu quan trng hn c l phi hoch nh c mt k hoch u t thch hp.
Bn phi tm hiu qu trnh hot ng ca cng ty cng nh ngnh ngh kinh doanh lin
quan n loi c phiu . ng thi cng cn theo di v tm hiu tro lu gi c ln
xung trn th trng, quyt nh lc no nn mua, lc no nn bn. cho vn tr
nn d hiu, bn c th quan tm ti mt s vn c bn di y:

Bt u sm.

Vi hot ng u t, bn cng dnh thi gian cho n nhiu bao nhiu th bn s cng thu
c nhiu li nhun by nhiu. Sau y l mt v d: Mt ngi u t 100 USD/thng
bt u tui 25 trong vng 15 nm v sau dng thm tin vo c phiu ca mnh.
Mt ngi khc cng u t 100 USD/thng trong vng 25 nm nhng bt u tui 40.
Vy ai s v hu vi s lng li nhun nhiu hn tui 65? ng nhin l ngi u
t sm hn.

Xc nh r mc ch u t.

Cng nh cc lnh vc u t khc, u t chng khon lun tn ti mi quan h t l

thun gia mc thu nhp vi mc ri ro. Thu nhp cng cao th mc ri ro tim n
cng ln. Khi u t vo c phiu, bn thng k vng vo hai loi thu nhp, l thu
nhp t c tc v t mc tng th gi c phiu. Thu nhp t c tc thng khng c
m bo v cn ty thuc vo tnh hnh kinh doanh ca cng ty v quyt nh ca Hi
ng qun tr. Thu nhp t mc tng th gi c phiu l biu hin ca mi quan h trc
tip gia trin vng kinh doanh ca cng ty vi nhu cu mua c phiu trn th trng.
Mt khi cng ty c nhng biu hin cho thy trin vng s pht trin tt th cc nh u
t s mua c phiu vi hy vng gi c phiu s tng trong tng lai. Ngoi ra, u t vo
c phiu cha ng nhiu loi ri ro (bao gm ri ro v li sut, ri ro v tnh thanh
khon, ri ro kinh doanh, ri ro lm pht...) trong khi thu nhp ch c hai hnh thc nh
ni trn. Do vy bn cn phi xc nh mc ch u t mt cch r rng. y l mt
yu t quan trng v l c s nh gi kt qu u t.
Mc ch u t cn phn nh li sng v mong mun ca bn. Nu bn theo ui mc
tiu thu nhp t c tc th nn u t vo c phiu ca cc cng ty kinh doanh dch v
cng cng nh in, in thoi... hoc cc c phiu thng hng. Bn cng c th cc c
phiu m th gi c xu hng tng v lu di to thu nhp tui gi. Cng c khi bn
chn c phiu vi mc tiu c tnh cht u c thng qua vic mua bn cc c phiu m
gi c bin ng mnh trong thi gian ngn. y l loi u t c mc ri ro cao nht.
Tuy vy, nu bn l mi bt u bc vo th trng chng khon v mong mun hot
ng u t n gin v d hiu th nn u t hn l u c.
La chn cng ty tt.

Cng ty tt thng l cng ty t n trong thi gian qua (thi gian cng di cng tt), v
c li nhun cao, hin ti c li v trin vng tng lai sng sa.

La chn thi im mua c phiu.

Gi c phiu thng khng ng yn, m lc ln lc xung. Vy nu ta chu kh theo di

tro lu, mua vo khi gi mc thp nht v bt u i ln, v bn ra lc th trng
mc cao nht v bt u i xung th s c li cao. y cng l nguyn tc thng thng
trong kinh doanh.
Gi mt loi c phiu lun lun chu nh hng ca nhng tro lu ln xung gi ca
TTCK. Trong thi k ln gi, th trng thng ko theo 70-80% loi c phiu cng ln.
Khi xung gi cng tng t. Bi v cng ging nh th trng hng ho, khi c nhiu
ngi cng mua mt mn hng no th gi hng s ln, ko theo cc hng ha khc
cng ln. Gi mt loi chng khon s ln khi c nhiu ngi cng mua, v gi s tt
xung khi c nhiu ngi cng bn.

Xy dng mt danh mc u t tt nht.

Bn hy lm iu ny mt cch n gin, khi u nu bn mun u t 100.000 USD

vo nm loi c phiu, mi loi s c u t 20.000 USD. Bn khng c gng mua mt
s lng c phiu no , bn ch u t mt s tin nh cho mi loi c phiu.
Nhng ng bao gi qu h hi trong vic mua c phiu, ng mua c nm loi c phiu
mt ln. Hy thi hnh tng bc mt, hy c phiu ca bn t chng minh chng bng
cch ch ra mt s pht trin no trc khi bn u t 100% s tin.

Trnh nhng loi c phiu phc tp.

Khi bn mi khi s u t, bn s c nghe rt nhiu v nhng c hi y kch thch

c th tm kim nhng li nhun khng l. Danh sch nhng cm by dnh cho nhng
con ngi ang h hi v c tin bc chn vo th trng bao gm chng khon nc
ngoi, cc qu u t c nh, hp ng quyn chn, hng giao theo hn, tri phiu kh
hon (convertible bonds), tri phiu cp thp v gi tr (junk bond), nhng loi chng
khon min thu v cc cng ty bt ng sn.
Nhng loi chng khon trn tuy li nhun cao nhng rt phc tp. Nu bn khng c
kinh nghim bn rt d gp phi ri ro. Nhng ri ro kh ln l l do chnh nhng nh
u t mi hoc nhng nh u t cha c kinh nghim nn trnh u t vo nhng th
k trn.

Khng mua nhng loi c phiu gi thp.

Nhng loi c phiu gi thp thng thng hp dn mi ngi vi mt l do duy nht: r.

Nhng trong khi n ang quyn r mi ngi mua chng vi gi r th hot ng ti
chnh ca chng li rt km v chm chp so vi nhng loi c phiu khc trong ngnh.
u t theo l tnh ch khng phi theo cm tnh.
Trong u t chng khon, mt sai lm thng gp ca cc nh u t l h thng hy
vng khi nn lo ngi v ngc li. Khi c phiu rt gi 8% di gi mua ban u v b
thua l, cc nh u t thng hay hy vng chng tng gi tr li trong khi thc s h
nn lo ngi rng c th s mt thm mt s tin na v nn phn ng bng cch bn c
phiu i v chp nhn thua l thay v c mi th y nguyn. Khi c phiu tng gi v
tm c li nhun, h li s rng c th nh mt li nhun y v bn chng qu sm.
Nhng s tht c phiu ang tng gi l mt du hiu cho thy chng thc s mnh v c
l quyt nh mua ban u ca h l hon ton chnh xc. William J.Oneil, mt chuyn
gia chng khon ni ting trn th trng ph Wall, chia s nhng quan im: Theo kinh
nghim ca ti, cch tt nht l thnh lp nhng quy lut mua v bn t nhng nghin
cu v lch s th trng - nhng quy lut da trn nn tng cu hi thc s th trng
ang hot ng nh th no, v trong qu kh mi khi th trng gp hon cnh y th
din bin nh th no, nhng quy lut da trn s thng k khoa hc ch khng phi da
trn nhng kin hay thnh kin c nhn.

Ti u t.

Nu bn kim c 6% li nhun trn 1000 USD tri phiu v dnh ht s li ny

trong nm. Sau 20 nm bn s nhn c 1200 USD. Nhng nu bn ti u t ht s li
nhun ny, bn s c c 2662 USD trong cng thi gian. l sc mnh ca ti u t
- li nhun m s to ra li nhun con.

Cn trng khi th trng lin tc xung dc.

Khi m th trng chng khon c nhng bin ng d di, ngi ta bt u t cu hi:

liu bn c nn tip tc mua c phiu khi gi rt? Cc chuyn gia cng khuyn co rng,
l mt hnh ng mang tnh ri ro cc k cao.
Sut thp k 90, chin thut tactic - chin thut mua c phiu khi gi rt, t ra hiu
qu. Trong thi gian , bt k khi no, mt c phiu no ni ring hoc th trng ni
chung gim gi th cc nh u t li mc hu bao ra mua c phiu vo. V h kim
c tin t chin thut u t ny. Th nhng, gi y khi m gi c phiu gim mnh
trong mt thi gian di th khng phi bt c mt c phiu no cng c th tng gi tr li
c. Song, cng c th c nhng vin ngc b che khut trong s nhng c phiu b rt
gi. Nghin cu ca cho thy, nhiu c phiu sau khi b c sc rt gi li tip tc trt
dc di. Cng c mt s c phiu sau c sc li cho mc li trung bnh dng trong
mt s khong thi gian quan st. iu ny chng t rng nu bit la chn danh mc
u t mt cch khn ngoan th thm ch ngay c vic u t vo cc c phiu b c sc
rt gi cng s mang li li nhun. Mt s chuyn gia chng khon gi cc nh u t
nn a vo danh mc u t ca mnh t cc cng ty bn l; cc cng ty truyn thng
qung co v cc cng ty dch v cho n cc cng ty ti chnh ln. Ngc li, nn trnh
u t vo c phiu ca cc cng ty cng ngh cao, cng ty hng khng, du m,...
Sau cng, xy dng c mt k hoch u t thch hp tht khng d dng i vi
nhng nh u t mi bc chn vo th trng chng khon. Bn cn bit r bn thn
mnh v th phn tch theo cc vn nu trn trc khi a ra quyt nh u t. Tuy
nhin, bn cng khng nn p dng mt cch cng nhc m cn c s iu chnh mc
tiu, chin lc mt cch linh ng cho ph hp vi nhng bin ng ca th trng.

Nh u t nghip d cn phi quan tm iu g?

Bn c i cht kin thc v ti chnh, nhng liu bn dng kh tham gia th

trng u t? Bn bit vic u t s c th em li li nhun khng nh, nhng liu
bn c chc chn rng mnh s khng gp cht vn en no? Nhng li khuyn m bn
nhn c m bo bn tr thnh nh u t thnh cng? Bn c bit cn phi
ch n nhng yu t no trong th gii u t khng?

Nu bn cm thy cn i cht bn khon hay lng tng, cc chuyn gia u t ti chnh

ca CNN/Money s gip bn.

Phn 1: Sng sut v cn trng

1. i khi nh u t nghip d li c li th hn nh u t chuyn nghip. Nh u t

chuyn nghip lun b m nh bi nhng d on rng liu h c nh bi th trng hay
khng. H c th cm thy cng thng khi nm gi hay mua vo ti thi im c phiu
ang trn ngp th trng. Cn cc nh u t nghip d s khng xem xt cn thn v
nghin cu k lng n nh vy trong cc hot ng u t ca mnh. Khi th trng bt
u no ng, kh kim sot, h ch cn ngi yn ti ch, bnh tnh tp trung vo nhng
mc tiu di hn.

2. u t tin bc hp l l hnh ng quan trng hn rt nhiu so vi vic c gng tm

kim nhng Microsoft tip theo. V di hn, li nhun m bn c c t vic u t c
phiu v tri phiu s c xu hng tng thch vi mc bin ng trung bnh trn th
trng. V vy, bn nn phn b ti chnh hp l quyt nh u t bao nhiu phn vo
c phiu v bao nhiu vo tri phiu.

3. Bn c th chia tay vi hot ng u t vi khon tin ln v tm trng thoi mi m

khng cn bit n vic hc th no kim c c phiu sinh li. Hy t 60% tng s
tin ca bn vo th trng c phiu v 40% cn li vo th trng tri phiu. Ch trong
vng 10 nm hay lu hn mt cht, bn s t kt qu tt hn phn ln cc nh u t
khc trn th trng, c chuyn nghip ln nghip d.

4. Tt c cc hot ng u t u lin quan n ri ro.

5. a dng ho u t l mt loi thuc tr tim tuyt vi i vi cc nh u t. Vic tri

rng dng vn ca mnh ra cc loi c phiu v tri phiu khc nhau l quyt nh khn
ngoan. Vic ny s gim thiu t l ri ro v tng c hi thu thm li nhun.
6. Cc nh u t lo luyn u c chung mt kt lun l v di hn, c phiu s sinh li
nhiu hn tri phiu v tri phiu hiu qu hn tin mt. Tuy nhin, bn cn cnh gic,
khng phi lc no nhn nh ny cng ng.

7. Hy ch ti s thoi tro: Cc vn ng vin th thao gi l s xung phong .

y l thi k m cc vn ng vin ri vo khng hong sau thi k nh cao. Trn th
trng chng khon, nhng iu tng t thng xy ra vi cc cng ty tng trng qu
nng. Cc nh u t thng c xu hng vui mng lao vo nhng cng ty tng trng
nhanh, tuy nhin khng ai c th i theo cuc chi ny mi mi, bi v thm ch nhng
cng ty tng trng nhanh nht cng c th ri vo suy thoi bt c lc no. Bn hy
dnh nhiu thi gian hn suy ngh v phn tch v nhng hin tng ny, t quyt
nh xem lc no nn lao vo v lc no khng nn.

8. ng dng tin ca mnh u t vo th trng vi nhng mc tiu i loi nh c

gng mua c nhng c phiu vi mc gi cao nht hay thp nht. Cc nh nghin cu
hin vn cn ang tm kim mt cch thc xc nh chnh xc lc no th trng
mc trn v lc no mc sn, nhng iu ny c th khng bao gi bit c.

9. T l trung bnh ng vn u t: u t vi lng tin nht nh hng thng hay hng

qu trong nm l cch tt nht v duy nht c th gi bn trn con ng m mnh
la chn.

10. Ti cn bng. Bn nn dnh 60% tin bc ca mnh u t vo c phiu v 40% vo

tri phiu. Nu c phiu gp khng hong v chim ti 75% tng vn u t ca bn, bn
nn bn bt chng i ti cn bng mc 60-40. Vi cch ny, bn s c th loi b
nhng c phiu ang tr nn t tin hn v mua vo loi r tin hn. l cch mua r
bn t.

11. Li nhun cao bao gi cng gn lin vi ri ro ln, tuy nhin khng phi bt c ri ro
no cng tt yu dn ti li nhun cao. Trc sc hp dn ca cc khon li nhun khng
l, mt nh u t thng minh s khng dn thn mt cch mo him vo nhng v u
t nu anh ta khng nhn thy s an ton ti a. Trong qung thi gian ch b th
trng chng khon c nui ln thi qu, bn c th mt tin t nim am m c phiu
ca mnh, hay n gin l cng ty m bn cho rng s thnh cng c th n tung bt c
lc no.

12. Bn c th khng bit mnh phi i mt vi nhng ri ro no, cho n khi bn hng
chu nhng mt mt thc s. Cng ging nh cc trng hp ng c thc phm, ri ro l
mt ci g rt kh hiu v mt l thuyt. Mt s tht kh nghe l Nasdaq
chn vi khng bit bao nhiu nh u t cng ngh, nhng ngi ngh rng mnh
khng th b tn thng.

13. Quy tc 72. Mt mnh khe tnh ton xem bn s cn bao nhiu thi gian nhn
i s tin ca mnh. V d bn phi mt bao nhiu nm khon tin 1000 ng chuyn
thnh 2000 ng mc li nhun 8%? Hy ly 72 chia cho 8, bn c 9 nm. T v d
ny, bn c th tnh ton cho mnh khong thi gian sinh li nhun.
14. Ti u t. Nu bn kim c 6% li nhun trn 1000 ng tri phiu v dnh ht
s tin li ny, th sau 20 nm, bn s c 1200 ng. Nhng nu bn ti u t ht s li
nhun thu c, bn s c 2662 ng cng sau 20 nm. l sc mnh ca ti u t -
li nhun m s sinh ra li nhun con.

15. Bt u sm. i vi hot ng u t, bn cng dnh thi gian cho n nhiu bao
nhiu, bn s cng thu c nhiu li nhun by nhiu.

16. Dnh dm nhiu hn: Mt cch khc tng thm li nhun l dnh dm thm
mt khon tin nh nht nh mi thng u t. Cng vi thi gian, nhng ng tin
s sinh si thnh hng nghn ng khc.

17. Khi bn t k hoch cho nhng mc tiu di hn, bn hy m bo rng ton b s

vn u t ca bn s sinh li 5% n 6%/nm.

18. Khi bn mua mt c phiu, bn ngh n s em li li nhun cho bn, nhng bn cn

nh rng bn mua nhng c phiu ny t mt ngi no cng ang cm thy mn
nguyn khi bn c chng.

19. ng da vo cc c quan qun l. Cc nh u t cn c ci nhn tnh to v thc t

v nhng g chnh ph c th lm v nhng g khng th. Cc c quan qun l chc chn
s y mnh vic tm ra cc gian ln v buc cc cng ty phi phi by thng tin nhiu
hn v minh bch hn. Nhng cc nh u t thng s dng mt cch khng hiu qu
nhng thng tin m h c c t s cng khai . Bao nhiu nh u t tng thc s
c v phn tch nhng tng trnh trong bn co bch IPO thng nin trc khi ra
quyt nh u t? Khng c quy nh no buc cc nh u t phi quyt nh thn
trng hay gi th trng khi suy thoi.

20. ng nhng mi quan tm v thu nh hng n quyt nh u t ca bn.

21. Bn mun tng li nhun kim c? Nu bn xem TV vo bui tra, tt hn ht bn

ng nn xem nhng thng tin v ti chnh kinh doanh. Bn thc s khng cn bit
nhng g xy ra vi c phiu ca cc cng ty, thay vo hy xem chng trnh m bn
yu thch. n gin l v lc ny bn khng cn nhng ci nhn v phn tch bn trong
nhm trnh cho bn nhng cm d li ko mnh vo nhng v u t mi vi ri ro cao
hn nhiu.

PHN 2: HNG HA TRN TH TRNG

22. y c s khc bit gia u t v u c: cc nh u t thng thch mua c

phiu nh mt thng v kinh doanh v s nm gi trong thi gian di, cn cc nh u
c nhn c phiu nh nhng t giy v h mua chng vi hy vng mt ai s tr gi cao
hn.
23. Tnh hnh tng trng ca cng ty s iu khin gi c phiu. C th c s khc bit
kh ln v gi c phiu t nm ny qua nm khc, nhng v lu di, gi c phiu s bin
ng da trn doanh thu v li nhun ca cng ty - nu li nhun ngy mt thu hp th
gi c phiu s gim, cn nu li nhun cng lc cng ln hn th ng nhin gi c
phiu cng s tng cao.

24. Trc khi quyt nh mua mt c phiu no , bn hy chun b bi din vn tm

tt thuyt phc chnh bn thn bn, c v a nghi, con ch ca bn, hay bt k ai v
gii thch ti sao bn mun mua c phiu. c phi l mt c phiu tng trng nhanh,
n nh v s to nn mt k tch v doanh thu? Liu chin lc u t bn a ra c hp
l? Liu bn cn i ti chnh ca cng ty lnh mnh? Liu cng ty ny c thng
th trc cc i th cnh tranh? n gin khi bn ni ra nhng iu ny, bn s phi tp
trung hn vo nhng g bn ngh v nhng g bn nghin cu, phn tch. Cui cng,
vic ny c th gip bn trnh nhng ri ro thua l.

25. Khi bn dnh vi pht suy ngh, bn hy dnh tip my pht na t hi ti

sao bn khng nn mua c phiu . Liu cng ty c chm su trong n nn? Liu v CEO
c ng tin cy khng hay s ln nh trch khi c rc ri? Liu gi c phiu c qu t
mua? Vic nm bt nhng thng tin khng nhng s gip bn hiu hn v cng ty,
m cn gip bn tnh ton c thi im nn bn c phiu i.

26. Nhng cng ty ln khng nht thit s to ra nhng c phiu ng mua. n gin
l v nu bn ch u t vo nhng cng ty ang dn u th trng, th thu nhp ca bn
c th s rt cao, tuy nhin, mt khi nhng cng ty ln ri vo khng hong, th thu nhp
ca bn c th b khng hong nng n hn nhiu.

27. C phiu 20 ng c th qu t - C phiu 100 ng li c th qu r. Bn hy tnh

ton, nhng khng ch l gi mi c phiu, m l lng tin bn thu c t mi ng
tin trong doanh thu, li nhun, ti sn v tin mt lu thng ca cng ty m bn u t
vo. iu ny bn c th bit c t cc t l nh gi c phiu sau y.

28-31. Bn cch nh gi mt c phiu

- T l gi/li nhun (P/E): Cho n nay, y vn l t l nh gi c phiu c s dng

ph bin nht, bi v n cho bit bn sn sng tr bao nhiu cho mi ng li nhun ca
cng ty.

- T l gi/doanh thu (P/S): Ch s ny c th c s dng nhn ra nhng cng ty c

mng li kinh doanh n nh, nhng li nhun c th gim st sau qu trnh tng trng
qu nng.

- T l gi/lu lng tin mt (P/C). Con s doanh thu v li nhun m cng ty bo co l

sn phm ca nhng quy tc tnh ton phc tp, do s liu c th b sai lch. Lu
lng tin mt t cc hot ng kinh doanh c th v nn bc tranh chn thc hn.
- T l gi/gi tr s sch (P/B): T l ny c dng nh gi ton b my mc, thit
b v cc ti sn khc, thng c s dng khi nh u t tm kim cc mc tiu tip
qun.

32. S khc bit gia ch s Forward P/E v Trailing P/E. Ch s Trailing P/E c da
trn doanh thu trong nm hin ti hay bn qu gn nht ca cng ty. Cn ch s Forward
P/E l c on da trn doanh thu mong i ca cng ty trong nm tip theo hay bn
qu sp ti.

33. S khc bit gia c phiu tng trng v c phiu gi tr. Mt c phiu tng trng
s ha hn mt li nhun ln hn trong tng lai, trong khi mt c phiu gi tr c tnh
thanh khon cao, bn c th bn bt c lc no vi mc gi cao hn hay thp hn gi tr
thc ca chng. C phiu tng trng thng l c phiu ca cc hng du m cn c
phiu gi tr l c phiu ca cc hng tiu dng lun c doanh thu v li nhun n nh,
mc tin cy cao. V di hn, c phiu gi tr c mc tng trng chm hn, mt phn
v chng c chiu hng c mua u c trn th trng.

34. Cch tt nht tm kim c phiu tng trng gi r. tr li cu hi liu mt c

phiu tng trng hin c c rao bn mc gi hp l hay khng, bn hy xem t l
PEG. tnh ton t l PEG ca mt cng ty, bn hy chia t l P/E vi t l tng trng
doanh thu d on. Nu t l PEG thp hn 1,2 ngha l c phiu l c hi tt u
t.

35. Bn c th bt u xy dng danh mc u t cc c phiu di hn ch vi 9 cng ty.

Khi xy dng mt danh mc u t c bn, bn hy bt u vi nhng cng ty ln c mt
trong 5 lnh vc cng nghip tng trng nng ng nhanh nht. V d, bn c th la
chn A trong lnh vc cng ngh, B trong lnh vc dc phm, C trong lnh vc dch v
ti chnh

36. ng t qu 10% vn u t bn c vo c phiu ca chnh cng ty bn. Nu bn

buc phi nm gi mt s lng ln hn 10% - c th do nhng quy nh ca cng ty -
bn hy c phn tn ri ro bng cch u t vo nhng lnh vc khc n nh hn lnh
vc ca bn. V d, nu bn lm vic cho mt cng ty cng ngh cao, hy kim cho mnh
nhng c phiu ca cc cng ty cng nghip tr c tc c nh.

37. ng t qu 10% vn u t c phiu ca bn vo mt cng ty. Nhng bi hc ln

nh Enron v WorldCom l minh chng r nt cho nhn nh rng: mt danh mc u t
qu tp trung s gi tng s mt n nh v tng ri ro thua l.

38. S phn tn c phiu cng khng lm bn tr nn giu c. Vic chia tch c phiu
u t l cn thit, nhng vic phn tn qu rng li rt c th phn tc dng. Khi bn
chia tch c phiu u t, bn cng s khng giu hn hay ngho hn chnh bn trc
y. V d, sau khi phn tn c phiu, bn kt thc nm ti chnh vi s lng c phiu
nhiu gp i, nhng chng c giao dch vi gi ch bng mt na. Tuy nhin, mt vi
nh u t nhn nhn vic phn tn l du hiu ca vic a dng ho u t ti nhiu cng
ty hp dn hn. Nhng ri, cc nghin cu cho thy rng c phiu c phn tn thng
t em li li nhun hn so vi vic khng phn tn, nu thi gian u t ca bn ch t
mt n hai nm.

39. Tm kim thng tin tm hiu v cng ty bng cch c cc bo co ti chnh hng
qu hay hng nm. Bn cng c th tm kim cc thng tin v cc cng ty trn Internet
hay trang web ca c quan qun l th trng chng khon.

40. Theo st ch s th trng chng khon. y l chin lc mua li nhng c phiu

c gi tr sinh li cao nht vo mi thng 1 u nm. Bn gi chng trong mt nm, sau
bn i nhng c phiu sa st nht trong bn danh sch v mua mt c phiu khc thay
th.

41. IPO s khng nh mong i. Trong thi k hong kim ca cc cng ty Internet, mi
ngi u mun lao vo cc t pht hnh chng khon ra cng chng (IPO). Tuy nhin,
IPO khng em li kt qu v lu di. Nhng c phiu ny thng em li phn ln li
nhun trong nhng nhng ngy giao dch u tin, sau , cc t pht hnh mi s ch
ch trn th trng trong nhng nm tip theo.

42-45. Bn l do ng n bn c phiu. Bn ng bn c phiu ch v chng st gi

hay v th trng c du hiu i xung. Nhng l do bn c phiu i l:

- Th nht, mt vi yu t quan trng v hot ng kinh doanh hay trin vng li nhun
ca cng ty thay i so vi thi im bn mua chng.
- Th hai, bn nhn ra rng nhng nhn nh, nh gi trc y ca bn v hot ng
kinh doanh v trin vng li nhun ca cng ty l sai lm.
- Th ba, cng ty bn u t ang cho thy h hot ng qu tt so vi mong i gi c
phiu tng trn mc m bn tin rng phn nh gi tr thc ca cng ty.
- Th t, c phiu no hin ang chim mt phn qu ln trong danh mc u t ca
bn khin ri ro tng cao.

PHN 3: GIAO DCH

46. Bn giao dch cng nhiu, li nhun bn thu c dng nh s cng t i. Bn mua
v bn cng nhiu, danh mc u t ca bn s phi chu chi ph giao dch cng cao hn.
Th ngh xem liu bn c nh bi th trng bng nhng tng thng minh khng?
Mt nghin cu cho thy cc nh qun l qu thng khng tng li nhun bng cc giao
dch trn th trng chng khon. Nu cc giao dch thng xuyn gy thit hi cho cc
nh u t chuyn nghip, th n cng c th nh hng xu n bn.

47. u t qu gii hn cho php. Bn vay tin t nhng nh mi gii v tr li sut

mua thm c phiu. iu ny dng nh s mang li li nhun nhiu hn, nhng ng
thi thua l cng c th ln hn. Nu c phiu bn nm gi xung thp di mc no ,
nh mi gii ca bn s yu cu bn hon tr li mt phn hay ton b khon n ngay lp
tc. Do , mua ngoi gii hn ca bn thn l mt ri ro m cc nh u t nghip d
nn trnh xa.
48. Th no l u t short-selling?. Nh u t short-seller s mn c phiu t mt
nh mi gii bn vi hy vng c phiu ny s xung gi v anh ta c th mua li vi
gi thp hn. Tuy nhin, chi ph cao, tim nng thua l ln v thm ch gi c phiu tng
sau mt thi k di ng bng s khin mong mun thu li c phiu ca nhng nh u t
short-seller tr nn vin vng. y l mt iu m bn nn trnh.

49. S khc bit gia lnh th trng v lnh gii hn. Khi bn ra mt lnh trn th trng
chng khon vi nh mi gii ca bn, bn ang yu cu bn hay mua c phiu mt
mc gi khp lnh. Cn lnh gii hn hng nh mi gii mua v bn c phiu mc gi
c th no , th mc gi ny c s dng nh mt bin php hu hiu bo v bn
trong mt th trng thng xuyn bin ng. Nu c phiu khng t ti gi , s
khng c giao dch no c thc hin.

PHN 4: TRI PHIU

50. Nhng quy tc c bn ca u t tri phiu. Gi tri phiu s gim khi t l li sut
tng v ngc li. Ti sao? Nu bn s hu tri phiu c mc tr li 6% v t l li sut
tng, lc ny, tri phiu s c mc tr li 7% , do vy tri phiu 6% ca bn s mt gi.

51. Nu bn u t tri phiu v gi chng cho n ng k hn thanh ton, bn s khng

bao gi mt tin. Tri phiu chnh ph, ngn phiu khng bao gi v n. Tri phiu th
v tri phiu cng ty cng him khi v n (t l v n di hn ch khong trn di 1%
n 2%).

52. Bn c phiu trc khi n hn thanh ton c th l mt sai lm. C phiu khng nh
tri phiu chng khng c giao dch mi ngy v cng s khng c nhiu ngi sn
sng mua tri phiu khi bn mun bn chng i. V vy, nu bn buc phi bn tri phiu,
bn c th phi chp nhn chu thit mt s tin nht nh.

53. Lm th no va c tin va khng thua l? Trong danh mc u t tri phiu, bn

nn nm gi nhiu c phiu vi cc k hn thanh ton khc nhau bn c th c tin
vo bt c nm no. iu ny cho php bn tn dng li ch t t l li sut cao mua
tri phiu khc, ng thi gim thiu ri ro.

54. Bn c th mt tin nu u t vo cc Qu u t tri phiu. Hng ngy, gi tr ca

cc c phiu trong danh mc u t tri phiu lun bin ng, ph thuc vo s dao ng
ca t l li sut v cc yu t khc. Do , gi tr ti sn ton Qu u t tri phiu cng
thay i theo. V vy, khi bn bn c phiu ca Qu u t tri phiu, gi c phiu s c
th thp hn hay cao hn so vi thi im bn mua chng.

55. Th no l tri phiu Zero-coupon. Tri phiu Zero-coupon (cung phiu bng khng)
s khng c li sut, thay vo , bn mua tri phiu vi mc gi thp hn gi danh
ngha. Khi c phiu n hn, bn s nhn li khon tin bao gm khon tin u t ban
u cng thm s tin chnh ra t gi gc c phiu so vi gi mua. V d, bn c th phi
tr 6659 ng v nhn 10 ngn ng tri phiu zero-coupon c li tc 4,15% v hn
thanh ton trong 10 nm.

56. Cung phiu (Coupon). y l mc li sut c nh m bn c th nhn c mi

nm t s c phiu nm gi.

57. Gi tr trung bnh (Par value). Mc gi ny c hiu nh gi tr danh ngha ca tri

phiu, l lng tin m mt nh pht hnh tri phiu ng tr khi n hn thanh
ton. Thng thng, tri phiu c giao dch mc cao hn hay thp hn gi tr trung
bnh.

PHN 5: QU U T

58. Ti sao cc Qu h tng lun thnh cng? Cu tr li l do khng c ni no khc

xut nhng phng n u t a dng v tin li nh vy. Cc Qu ny cung cp mt
hng u t chi ph thp cho cc nh u t c nhn mi vo ngh, gip h lm quen
vi th trng, to cho h tr thnh nhng nh u t chuyn nghip sau ny. Vi cc
Qu h tng, bn c th tin hnh cc v u t m khng cn b chi ph hoa hng mi
gii, vic m bn khng th lm khi trc tip u t vo c phiu.

59. Vi thi gian, cc Qu u t nng c th s ngui lnh dn, nhng chi ph u t bao
gi cng c gi mc thp. Thng thng, bn ch phi mt chi ph khong 2% n
2,5% mi nm.

60. Lm th no la chn mt Qu u t? Vic bn vi v bt tay mt Qu u t ch

v biu tng trng mnh trong vi thng gn y dng nh l cch bn t t
nhng ng tin ca mnh. Thay vo , bn hy tp trung nhiu hn vo cc Qu u t
c th d on c xu hng pht trin trong tng lai. Tuy nhin, trc khi la chn
mt Qu u t no , bn nn dnh cht t thi gian nghin cu v n, tm hiu hot
ng v c cu t chc, cc c phiu m Qu s hu V chc bn s khng mun mt
Qu u t m c mt vi nm li thay mt nh qun l mi.

61. Khi bn u t vo cc Qu h tng, s c mt khon bn phi chu l ph bn (sales

charges). Nu bn mua c phiu ca qu u t thng qua mt nh mi gii hay do mt
chuyn gia no khuyn bn nn lm nh vy, bn s phi tr chi ph c gi l ph
bn, y l mc hoa hng dnh cho h v nhng li nhun bn c c.

62. Ph bn hot ng nh th no? Qu u t chung cho bn theo gi tr rng hoc

gi tr rng cng vi mt khon ph bn, m trong ngnh thng gi l load (gnh nng).
V vy m nhng qu ny c gi l qu c tnh ph bn (load-fund). Nhng c phn
no cho bn theo gi tr rng (khng cng thm ph bn) th ngi phn phi ca qu
u t trc tip m nhn vic thc hin. Cng c th vic ny c mt nhm ngi
hng hi trong ban gim c lm. Nhng ngi ny khng c mt lc lng bn hng n
hoa hng v h s u t ton b s tin nh u t k gi. V vy m nhng qu ny
c gi l qu khng tnh ph bn (no load-funds), pht trin rt nhanh v s lng cng
nh gi tr ti sn c qun l.

63. Cch tt nht s dng Qu u t theo khu vc chuyn ngnh (Sector funds): Nu
bn c mt danh mc u t a dng, c ngha l bn ang s hu c phiu cng ngh, c
phiu cng ty chm sc sc kho v c phiu ti chnh, Nu n thun tham gia vo
nhng Qu u t theo khu vc chuyn ngnh, bn s lm mt cn bng cn cn u t
ca mnh. Thay vo , bn hy dnh mt lng nh vn u t, t 5% n 10% chng
hn, cho cc qu nh Qu u t bt ng sn.

64. S hu trong tay c phiu ca 10 Qu h tng khng ng ngha vi vic bn ang

a dng ho danh mc u t ca mnh. a dng ho c ngha l nhiu c phiu trong cc
lnh vc khc nhau.

PHN 6: KINH T

65. Cc d tr lin bang M (FED) lm g? FED lun c gng m bo v duy tr s lnh

mnh ca h thng ngn hng, gi c n nh v t l tht nghip thp. Mt trong nhng
cng c quan trng nht ca FED l iu chnh li sut cho vay gia cc ngn hng v
tng hay gim ngun cung tin quc gia.

66. Ti sao nhng g FED lm li rt quan trng? FED c nh hng ln n nh hng

kinh t v t l li sut. T l li sut thp hay gim s lm tng gi tr c phiu. Nhng
nu cc nh u t ngh rng FED c k hoch tng li sut, h s bn c phiu v mc li
sut dn n xu hng lng tin gi ngn hng tng, nn kinh t tng trng chm v
nh hng n li nhun ca h. Khi FED tng t l li sut, ngay lp tc gi c phiu ti
ph Wall st gim, do t l li sut cao s hn ch vic cc cng ty vay tin u t
cho nhng d n kinh doanh mi. V khi , tri phiu s c quan tm hn.

PHN 7: LI KHUYN

67. Bn s mt nhng khon tin no? Khi u t, bn phi tr mt khon tin nht nh
cho cc s tr gip. Khon tin ny l hoa hng mi gii, ph bn ca qu u t hay chi
ph t vn Trn th trng chng khon c nhiu chuyn gia sn sng gip bn lp k
hoch u t, danh mc u t, nhng chuyn gia ny s ly i ca bn khong 1% n
2% tng s tin trong danh mc u t.

68. Phn nn v khiu ni nh th no? Nu nh mi gii hay nh kinh doanh chng

khon lm vic cho mt cng ty no , u tin bn hy khiu ni bng vn bn ti cng
ty ca anh ta. Nu bn nghi ng vic vi phm mt quy nh php lut v chng khon,
bn hy lin h trc tip vi y ban chng khon nh nc. Bn c th vo trang
nasaa.org. tm nhng hng dn khiu ni bng vn bn cng nhng ti liu cn thit
cho vic chng minh.

PHN 8: NGUN THNG TIN

69. Nhng trang web hu ch. Ni tt nht khi u cho vc tm kim v phn tch
thng tin l trang www.money.com. Sau , p ng nhng nhu cu u t khc ca
bn, bn c th vo tng trang ti chnh ring l c ni dung m bn quan tm. Ti cc a
ch nh CNN/Money (money.cnn.com), MSN Money (moneycentral.com) hay Yahoo
Finance (finance.yahoo.com) s c nhng thng tin ti chnh c cp nhp lin tc. Mi
trang s cung cp nhng thng tin khc nhau v th trng ti chnh, ngun v cc cng
c thc thi nh: tm kim danh mc u t, cho gi, tin tc v cc cng ty, phn tch th
trng, biu , gi c phiu, d on doanh thu, thng bo kinh doanh ni b v d liu
IPO...

Bn cnh , nhiu nh u t cng rt thch trang ww.financenter.com v nhng cng c

tnh ton v phn tch n tng ca n. Mt trang web ln cc nh u t lm quen vi
cc quy nh v thut ng u t l trang www.investorwords.com, ni m c hn mt t
in ti chnh vi trn 6000 nh ngha v nhiu mc t tham kho khc.

Kinh doanh chng khon trn mng - c v mt

u t chng khon l ngh c th mang li cho bn nhiu li nhun, song, cng l

ngh khin bn c th tr nn khnh gia bi sn trong mt thi gian nhanh nht. Hn bn
cn nh v mt tn st nhn ti M git hi 12 ngi v sau t st ch v thua l
trong u t chng khon trn mng Internet? u t chng khon l mt cuc chi
khng d dng, nu khng mun ni l khc nghit .Tuy nhin, cng l ngh hp dn
nhng ai c bn lnh, c u c phn tch tt v bit chp nhn ri ro, cn mt

Gii kinh doanh ni chung v cc nh u t chng khon ni ring khng xa l g v

mi tng quan t l thun gia mc ri ro v li nhun. Th nhng, khng phi c
liu lnh l c.Vi lch s pht trin hng trm nm, th trng chng khon ton cu
lun khng ngng thay i. Chng ta bit n nhiu loi th trng chng khon khc
nhau nh th trng quyn chn, th trng tng lai, th trng cng c n... Tuy nhin,
u t th no cho hiu qu l cu hi khin ngi chi chng khan au u.

V ri, khi th trng pht trin cng vi mt lot cc quy nh mi v c bit l s ra

i ca Internet, cu tr li xut hin. Ngy nay, mi ngi c th t do u t chng
khon m khng cn c mt cng nh khng phi trc tip lin lc vi cc nhn vin mi
gii u t. S tin li ny ang ngy cng thu ht nhiu nh u t hn vo th trng
chng khon, t nhng c gi v hu vi ng lng t i n mt doanh nhn thnh
t nhng vn mun lm giu thm na, mt sinh vin mi tt nghip i hc cho n
mt cng nhn sa ng nc mun c thm tin lo gia cho gia nh. Bt k ai c quan
tm n vn ny u c th tr thnh nh u t chng khon trn mng, min l h c
mt s vn ti thiu. Thng th h tham gia vo vic kinh doanh c phiu qua Internet
theo kiu mua t bn on ngay trong mt phin giao dchca th trng chng khon.
Thng thng, hot ng ny ca h c qua mt cng ty cung cp dch v mi gii
chng khon trn mng Internet.
u t chng khon trn mng lun l mt hnh thc u t kh tin li. Thng tin v
nhiu cng ty, cc nh mi gii chng khon, bn tin th trng cng li khuyn ca cc
chuyn gia thng c cung cp hon ton min ph. Ch cn mt my vi tnh vi kt
ni Internet, ngi bt k ti u trn th gii, bn cng c th lm mt cuc kinh doanh c
phiu trn mng. Cn i vi nhng ai mun kim nhiu tin hn th c th b cng vic
hin ti ca mnh tr thnh mt nh u t chng khon chuyn nghip. Nhng hot
ng u t chng khon qua Internet ang ngy mt pht trin ti hu ht cc th trng
chng khon trn th gii.

u t chng khon trn mng lun l mt hnh thc u t kh tin li. Thng tin v
nhiu cng ty, cc nh mi gii chng khon, bn tin th trng cng li khuyn ca cc
chuyn gia thng c cung cp hon ton min ph. Ch cn mt my vi tnh vi kt
ni Internet, ngi bt k ti u trn th gii, bn cng c th lm mt cuc kinh doanh c
phiu trn mng. Cn i vi nhng ai mun kim nhiu tin hn th c th b cng vic
hin ti ca mnh tr thnh mt nh u t chng khon chuyn nghip. Nhng hot
ng u t chng khon qua Internet ang ngy mt pht trin ti hu ht cc th trng
chng khon trn th gii.

Cng c u t ca nhng nh u t chng khon t do qua Internet khng khc my so

vi cc nhn vin mi gii v kinh doanh chng khon chuyn nghip, bao gm my in
thoi, mn hnh my vi tnh vi y cc thng tin v gi c, cc bn tin th trng, bn
tin ti chnh, Vi cc cng c ny, mi ngi c th thc hin hng trm cuc mua bn
chng khon ch trong vng mt ngy. D bn c ngi nh hay vn phng lm vic
th bn vn c th tham gia giao dch chng khon trong ngy bng vic truy cp vo
Internet.

Cng c u t ca nhng nh u t chng khon t do qua Internet khng khc my so

vi cc nhn vin mi gii v kinh doanh chng khon chuyn nghip, bao gm my in
thoi, mn hnh my vi tnh vi y cc thng tin v gi c, cc bn tin th trng, bn
tin ti chnh, Vi cc cng c ny, mi ngi c th thc hin hng trm cuc mua bn
chng khon ch trong vng mt ngy. D bn c ngi nh hay vn phng lm vic
th bn vn c th tham gia giao dch chng khon trong ngy bng vic truy cp vo
Internet.

Tuy nhin, sau mt s thnh cng nht nh trn Internet, bn t ho rng mnh l nh u
t c nng lc, hiu bit v chng khon. S tht c ng nh vy khng? Bn hy nn
cn thn bi chng khon l mt trong nhng cng c ti chnh phc tp v kh kim
sot nht. Nhng cng thc tnh ton phc tp trong u t chng khon vn c th lm
nhng nh u t lo luyn mc sai lm.

Phng thc u t chng khon trn Internet theo nhiu chuyn gia nh gi l s rt d
lm bn ngho i nhanh chng, i khi li nhun sau mt ngy mua bn trn th trng
ch tr tin hoa hng cho cng ty Internet m bn m ti khon. Ngoi ra, do
phng thc ny ch yu giao dch theo ngy nn bn thng khng c s gan l,
nhanh nhn, s suy on thn tc v tnh kin nhn kp thi quyt nh bn lc no,
mua lc no, V th nhiu khi bn mt kh nhiu tin trong mt ngy. C th ni, nu
khng tnh to th khng t trng hp bn s st nghip hay mc n ln ch sau vi
giy vi phng thc u t tin dng v y ma lc hp dn ny.

Khi u t vo mt cng vic c qu nhiu ri ro, bn d c khuynh hng hnh ng

theo cm tnh , mt nh kinh doanh chng khon chuyn nghip ti ph Wall nhn
nhn nh vy v cc nh u t t do tc chinkhng thng qua s tr gip,ch dn ca
cc chuyn gia mi gii chng khon. Mt nh tm l hc chng khon ti M cho bit:
Cng ging nh tr en, thng khi thua thit trong u t c phiu, ngi ta li cng
c dn ln hng g gc li nhng g mt, tuy nhin, nhiu khi, nu khng tnh to, bn
s tr thnh con nca chnh mnh. Mt lc no , bn s mt ht c ch ln chi, ti sn,
tin tit kim, ...v ri vo cm gic tht bi, v dng...Bi kch ca nhng tay chi bn
tri khng vn t thng din ra nh vy.

Khi u t vo mt cng vic c qu nhiu ri ro, bn d c khuynh hng hnh ng

theo cm tnh , mt nh kinh doanh chng khon chuyn nghip ti ph Wall nhn
nhn nh vy v cc nh u t t do tc chinkhng thng qua s tr gip,ch dn ca
cc chuyn gia mi gii chng khon. Mt nh tm l hc chng khon ti M cho bit:
Cng ging nh tr en, thng khi thua thit trong u t c phiu, ngi ta li cng
c dn ln hng g gc li nhng g mt, tuy nhin, nhiu khi, nu khng tnh to, bn
s tr thnh con nca chnh mnh. Mt lc no , bn s mt ht c ch ln chi, ti sn,
tin tit kim, ...v ri vo cm gic tht bi, v dng...Bi kch ca nhng tay chi bn
tri khng vn t thng din ra nh vy.

Lo ngi trc s bng n khng th kim sot c i vi hot ng u t mua t

bn on qua Internet ca cc nh u t c lp thuc mi thnh phn, Hip hi quc
gia cc nh mua bn chng khon M (NASD) yu cu cc cng ty cung cp dch v
mi gii chng khon trn Internet cho cc nh u t c lp phi cng b r v mi ri
ro ca vic t u t ny mi ngi c bit. Ngoi ra, nhiu nh qun l chng
khon ti U ban hi oi v chng khon M (SEC) cng ngh cc cng ty cung cp
dch v ny phi xem xt k cc iu kin tm l, ti chnh ca khch hng trc khi cho
php h m ti khon gia nhp hng ng cc nh u t t do trn mng.

Lo ngi trc s bng n khng th kim sot c i vi hot ng u t mua t

bn on qua Internet ca cc nh u t c lp thuc mi thnh phn, Hip hi quc
gia cc nh mua bn chng khon M (NASD) yu cu cc cng ty cung cp dch v
mi gii chng khon trn Internet cho cc nh u t c lp phi cng b r v mi ri
ro ca vic t u t ny mi ngi c bit. Ngoi ra, nhiu nh qun l chng
khon ti U ban hi oi v chng khon M (SEC) cng ngh cc cng ty cung cp
dch v ny phi xem xt k cc iu kin tm l, ti chnh ca khch hng trc khi cho
php h m ti khon gia nhp hng ng cc nh u t t do trn mng.

Cn v pha cc nh u t t do trn Internet, ngoi vic xc nh c cng ty tim

nng, s kin tr cng l mt yu t quyt nh hiu qu ca cng vic u t. Khi u t
qua Internet, cc nh u t cng cn tp trung u t vo c phiu ca cc cng ty c
tnh hnh ti chnh minh bch, c li nhun cao ng thi kin tr nm gi di hn, ch
ng theo xu hng chung l mua t bn on. Mt cng ty tt s tip tc tng trng
ngay c khi th trng chng khon c hong lon. Cc nh u t chng khon khng
nn qu n bin ng gi hng ngy trn th trng cng nh nhng c im ca
vic u t qua Internet m nn tp trung tm hiu v cc cng ty nim yt xc nh
c u l cng ty tt v ng nm gi lu di.

Cn v pha cc nh u t t do trn Internet, ngoi vic xc nh c cng ty tim

nng, s kin tr cng l mt yu t quyt nh hiu qu ca cng vic u t. Khi u t
qua Internet, cc nh u t cng cn tp trung u t vo c phiu ca cc cng ty c
tnh hnh ti chnh minh bch, c li nhun cao ng thi kin tr nm gi di hn, ch
ng theo xu hng chung l mua t bn on. Mt cng ty tt s tip tc tng trng
ngay c khi th trng chng khon c hong lon. Cc nh u t chng khon khng
nn qu n bin ng gi hng ngy trn th trng cng nh nhng c im ca
vic u t qua Internet m nn tp trung tm hiu v cc cng ty nim yt xc nh
c u l cng ty tt v ng nm gi lu di.

Bn cnh , khi giao dch chng khon trn mng Internet, cc nh u t nn theo di
tnh hnh ti khon giao dch mi ngy ch khng phi l mi pht, bi nh th nh u
t s trnh c tc ng t nhng bin ng lin tc trn th trng em li. Nhiu trang
web v cng ty mi gii chng khon trn mng Internet cho php nh u t theo di
tnh hnh giao dch ca mnh. Thm ch mt s cng ty cn gi e-mail hng m thng
bo cho nh u t kt qu giao dch chng khon trong ngy. Cn phi nh rng cm
nang ny ch thc s c hiu qu khi bn nm r cc c phiu mnh u t cng nh
chin thut u t nh s dng. Mun thnh cng cc nh u t phi lin tc thc hnh
u t th mt s loi c phiu rn luyn cc k nng u t v s t tin trc khi thc
s u t vo th trng chng khon qua mng Internet.

Bn cnh , khi giao dch chng khon trn mng Internet, cc nh u t nn theo di
tnh hnh ti khon giao dch mi ngy ch khng phi l mi pht, bi nh th nh u
t s trnh c tc ng t nhng bin ng lin tc trn th trng em li. Nhiu trang
web v cng ty mi gii chng khon trn mng Internet cho php nh u t theo di
tnh hnh giao dch ca mnh. Thm ch mt s cng ty cn gi e-mail hng m thng
bo cho nh u t kt qu giao dch chng khon trong ngy. Cn phi nh rng cm
nang ny ch thc s c hiu qu khi bn nm r cc c phiu mnh u t cng nh
chin thut u t nh s dng. Mun thnh cng cc nh u t phi lin tc thc hnh
u t th mt s loi c phiu rn luyn cc k nng u t v s t tin trc khi thc
s u t vo th trng chng khon qua mng Internet.

Trng hp bn la chn u t vo quyn la chn c phiu (options) th mt trang ch

v nh gi, bin ng ca cc options l khng th b qua c. Mt trang web kh ni
ting l www.optionetics.com. Trang ny cung cp cho bn cc phn tch th trng
trong ngy cng nh phn tch ton b th trng vo cui ngy, cp nht cc bi bo mi
ngy v giao dch, u t c phiu v hp ng la chn. Trang web ny cn c nhng
d liu th trng c cp nht lin tc v danh sch lit k nhng ngi thnh cng,
tht bi trong u t chng khon trn mng cng nh gi cao nht, thp nht trong ngy.
Trng hp bn la chn u t vo quyn la chn c phiu (options) th mt trang ch
v nh gi, bin ng ca cc options l khng th b qua c. Mt trang web kh ni
ting l www.optionetics.com. Trang ny cung cp cho bn cc phn tch th trng
trong ngy cng nh phn tch ton b th trng vo cui ngy, cp nht cc bi bo mi
ngy v giao dch, u t c phiu v hp ng la chn. Trang web ny cn c nhng
d liu th trng c cp nht lin tc v danh sch lit k nhng ngi thnh cng,
tht bi trong u t chng khon trn mng cng nh gi cao nht, thp nht trong ngy.

Mc d vy, hon ton khng sai khi cc chuyn gia phn tch chng khon nhn nh
rng s rt nguy hi nu cc nh u t t do trn Internet qun rng th trng chng
khon khng phi l ni tiu tin nhanh v v b nht cng nh khng phi l ni kim
tin d dng v nhn nh nht, cho d c l phng thc u t tin dng qua Internet.
V ch c nhng nh u t tnh to v bit kim ch mi trnh c s hi tic nu mt
ngy kia gi c phiu tng tr li.

, hon ton khng sai khi cc chuyn gia phn tch chng khon nhn nh rng s rt
nguy hi nu cc nh u t t do trn Internet qun rng th trng chng khon khng
phi l ni tiu tin nhanh v v b nht cng nh khng phi l ni kim tin d dng v
nhn nh nht, cho d c l phng thc u t tin dng qua Internet. V ch c
nhng nh u t tnh to v bit kim ch mi trnh c s hi tic nu mt ngy kia
gi c phiu tng tr li.

Tri phiu cng ty, phc tp nhng hiu qu!

Thut ng Corporate bond khng cn xa l vi nhiu doanh nghip, bi y l mt

trong nhng phng thc huy ng vn hu hiu khi doanh nghip thiu vn. Thng qua
pht hnh tri phiu, doanh nghip c th vay c t th trng mt khon vn kh ln
vi li sut thp hn li sut ngn hng. Nh tnh hnh hot ng kinh doanh ca
doanh nghip s ci thin ng k, doanh nghip s c thm tin u t, m rng hot
ng sn xt kinh doanh.

Tuy nhin, tri phiu khng h n gin, bi n c rt nhiu loi, tu tng trng hp,
tu tng hon cnh s c nhiu loi tri phiu khc nhau. Mt vi cng ty pht hnh tri
phiu c quyn rt trc hn (redemption priviledge) vi thi biu l bi s ca mt nm,
6 thng hay 2 nm...

Bi vit ny s trnh by mt s loi tri phiu chnh t cc doanh nghip c th

bit c nhng u nhc im cng nh nhng c trng ca cc tri phiu.
Tri phiu km quyn i n trc hn (option bonds or put bonds): l nhng tri phiu
di hn cho php ngi s hu thanh ton tri phiu trc hn theo mnh gi ca tri
phiu vo thi im trn mt nm sau ngy pht hnh hay vo ng ngy ny vo mi
nm tip theo. Thi biu thanh ton trc hn c th rt khc nhau.
Tri phiu ng k vn gc (registered as to principal only): Tri phiu ng k vn l
tri phiu li sut c phn vn c ng k theo tn ca ngi s hu tri phiu cn
phn phiu li sut nh km di dng v danh (bearer form). Bt k ai cm phiu li sut
ny u c th bn li hay c hng li sut ghi trn phiu (the coupon is negotiable
and payable to the bearer) cn phn vn ng k th ch c th do chnh ngi ng k
tri phiu chuyn nhng (registered portion is transferable only by the holder of record).
Tri phiu ng k vn gc v li sut (registered as to pricipal and interest): l tri phiu
khng c phn phiu li sut nh km (with no coupon attached). C vn v li ch tr
cho ngi s hu tri phiu theo mt thi hn nht nh (payable to the bondholder at
specified dates). Do kh nng chuyn nhng (transferable aspect) hn ch nn gi th
trng ca tri phiu ng k thp hn tri phiu nh km li sut tng ng.

Tri phiu km phiu li sut (coupon bonds): l nhng cng c tri phiu v danh tng
ng mt n v tin t (bearer instruments similar to a moneary unit). Quyn hng li
sut thuc v bt k ngi no cm phiu li sut v vic tr li c thc hin khi xut
trnh phiu li sut ny (the interest is payable upon presentation of the coupon). Cc
quyn li ca tri phiu km phiu li sut c chuyn nhng thng qua vic giao tri
phiu cho ngi mua. Phiu li sut i km tri phiu ghi r nhng chi tit nh: tn ngi
pht hnh (name of the issuer), s tri phiu (bond number), s seri (serial number).
Tri phiu chuyn i (convertible bonds): l tri phiu m ngi s hu c th em i
thnh loi chng khon khc do cng mt cng ty pht hnh. Cc tri phiu ny thng
c i thnh cc c phn thng (common shares) hoc i khi thnh cc c phn u
i (preferred stock) ca cng ty pht hnh tri phiu.

Tri phiu chuyn i c th c cng ty thu hi trc hn (the bond may be called). Li
sut gim c th dn n vic tri phiu c thu hi trc hn do cng ty pht hnh
mun thay khon n ca mnh bng mt khon vay khc vi li sut thp hn. Tri phiu
chuyn i c cc loi nh sau:
- Tri phiu chuyn i c th thu hi trc hn (callabe convertible bonds);
- Tri phiu chuyn i theo iu khon ca qu thanh ton n (convertible bonds with a
sinking fund provision). iu khon ny cho php cng ty pht hnh tri phiu thu hi
trc hn mt s tri phiu nht nh mi nm:

- Tri phiu chuyn i c t l chuyn i khc nhau (convertible bonds with a variable
conversion ratio). i vi tri phiu ny s c phn thng m tri phiu c th i c
khc nhau theo tng thi im trong thi hn tri phiu.
- Tri phiu chuyn i c li sut lin quan vi li tc c phn thng (convertible
bonds with an interest rate linked to the dividend rate on the common). Khi li sut c
iu chnh, li sut tri phiu tnh trung bnh hng nm s lun cao hn li tc c phn
thng.

Tri phiu bt ng sn (real estate bonds): Tri phiu bt ng sn c li sut bnh

thng cng vi mt t l tng gi tr bt ng sn nht nh.
Tri phiu n nh (stabilized bonds): l mt loi tri phiu c phng thc thanh ton n
da trn sc mua ca ng USD. Khi pht hnh tri phiu, cng ty cam kt s tr ht
bng mt khon tin tng ng vi sc mua ca ng USD vo thi im tri phiu
n hn n. Mc ch ca tri phiu ny nhm n nh gi tr ca khon n bng cch
tnh ton tt c cc yu t kinh t sao cho gi tr ca khon n tnh theo sc mua ca ng
USD ti thi im tri phiu n hn ngang bng vi thi im pht hnh. Do vic p
dng mt tri phiu vi tnh cht nh vy rt kh th hin nn tri phiu n nh khng
ph bin lm trn th trng.

Tri phiu vng (gold bonds): Tri phiu vng l mt loi tri phiu thanh ton bng tin
vng (payment is made in gold coins). Trc nm 1993, hu ht cc tri phiu u c kh
nng thanh ton bng vng nh l mt loi tin hp php (lawful money) ca nc M.
Sau quc hi M hu b loi tri phiu ny khi a ra cc tri phiu "tin t" khc
(currency bonds). Hin nay, mi tri phiu M u c thanh ton bng ng tin
php nh ca nc ny .

Tri phiu vnh vin (perpetual bonds): y l tri phiu khng c ngy o hn. Loi tri
phiu ny thng c thc hin tr n tu theo la chn ca cng ty pht hnh. Loi tri
phiu ny khng ph bin M, nhng cng ph bin mt s nc nh Anh Quc
(cng tri hp nht - Consols), Php (Cng tri thc li - Rentes).
Tri phiu u thc th chp (collateral trust bonds): Tri phiu u thc th chp l tri
phiu c m bo bng quyn gi ti sn th chp ca mt lot cc chng khon n
khc do ngi nhn tn thc (trustee) hay mt cng ty tn thc (trust company) nm gi.
Loi tri phiu ny thng do mt cng ty m (holding company) pht hnh trn c s
th chp cc chng khon ca mt cng ty con (subsidiary company).
Chng ch ngi tip qun (receivers certificates): Chng ch ny do ngi tip qun
(receiver) mt cng ty ang trong tnh trng ph sn pht hnh nhm cp vn cho hot
ng (provide funds for operation) bo v ti sn cn li ca cng ty. y l cc giy
nhn n ngn hn (short term notes) c ta n chp thun (authorized by the Court).
Nhng tri phiu ny rt d gp ri ro v ph thuc vo uy tn chung ca cng ty.
Tri phiu mua bt ng sn (purchase money bonds): Tri phiu ny ch yu s dng
mua bt ng sn (used for real estate purpotses) mc d ngi ta cng c th s dng
chng trong vic huy ng vn. Mt ti sn c s dng nh tin mt do bn mua
(purchser of real estate) th chp cho bn bn (seller of real estate) nhm mc ch m
bo i ng (consideration) vi gi tr bt ng sn bn trn s sch k ton. Tri
phiu pht hnh c m bo bng ti sn th chp ni trn (the bond secured by the
mortgage). S tin thu c t vic bn tri phiu c s dng thanh ton tin mua
bt ng sn. Trong trng hp huy ng vn th tri phiu loi ny thng c pht
hnh bi cng ty ang trong tnh trng sp b cng ty khc "thn tnh". Tri phiu ny s
c bo m bng s c phn ang b cng ty thn tnh tin hnh.
Tri phiu chuyn tip (interim bonds) : Tri phiu chuyn tip l cc chng ch tri phiu
tm thi (tempoary bond certificates) v c th c chuyn i thnh tri phiu c k
hn xc nh (exchangeabe into derfinitive ones). Trong thi gian bo lnh pht hnh
(time of underwriting), nu khng c sn cc tri phiu di hn (permanent bond
certificates) th cng ty thng pht hnh tri phiu tm thi.
Tri phiu gia hn (extended bonds): Trong trng hp khng c ngun ti chnh cn
thit (necessay funds) thu hi (to redeem) tri phiu khi n hn cng ty c th la
chn hnh thc tr hon thi hn thanh ton (postpone the maturity of the bonds) m
khng cn phi thay i chng khon hay cc iu khon khc ca hp ng tri phiu
bng cch s dng tri phiu gia hn (using extended bonds). Tri phiu loi ny c ghi
r quyn ko di thi hn thanh ton tri phiu ca cng ty.
Tri phiu chi nhnh (divisional bonds): Tri phiu chi nhnh rt ph bin trong ngnh
cng nghip ng st, y ngha v tr n ca tri phiu thuc v cc chi nhnh hay cc
n v trc thuc h thng ng st. Ban u tri phiu ny c th l tri phiu ca mt
cng ty m sau b mt cng ty khc thn tnh. Sau khi chim hu c cng ty con,
cng ty m (parent company) khng can thip vo s tri phiu ny v gi chng l tri
phiu chi nhnh (divisional bonds) hay tri phiu cng ty con (sectional bonds).
Tri phiu d tnh (assumed bonds): Khi thn tnh cng ty khc bng hnh thc trao i
c phiu, mt cng ty thng d tnh (assumed) trc cc khon n v ti sn n
(obligations and liabilities) ca cng ty ang b chim hu. Sau cng ty m (tc l
cng ty thn tnh) s pht hnh cc tri phiu theo d tnh ni trn. Bi vy tri phiu ny
c gi l tri phiu d tnh.
Tri phiu lin kt (joint bonds): Tri phiu lin kt do hai cng ty hay nhiu hn cng
chu trch nhim thanh ton (joint bonds are the joint obigations of to or more
companies). Cc tri phiu ny thng c bo m bng cc ti sn khc nhau (secured
by different asstes) ca nhng cng ty lin kt ni trn. Tri phiu ny rt ph bin trong
lnh vc ng st khi mt vi cng ty mun huy ng vn bng hnh thc pht hnh tri
phiu ti tr cho nhng thit b chung nh cu cng, cc sn ga .
Tri phiu c bo m hay tri phiu k hu (guaranteed bonds or indorsed bonds):
y l tri phiu m vic thanh ton c vn v li (payment of principal and interest)
c bo m bi mt cng ty khc (guaranted by another company) ch khng phi l
ngi pht hnh. Loi tri phiu ny thng c s dng ph bin trong ngnh cng
nghip ni chung cng nh ngnh ng st ni ring khi mt cng ty c hng li t
cng ty pht hnh tri phiu ng ra m bo vic thanh ton tri phiu cho cng ty ny.
Tri phiu d phn (participating bonds): Tri phiu d phn l tri phiu cho php ngi
s hu c hi c hng mt phn li nhun t cng vic kinh doanh ca cng ty pht
hnh.
Tri phiu tng hp (consolidated bonds): Tri phiu tng hp l tri phiu c bo m
bng vic th chp tng hp mt nhm cc ti sn (secured by a combined mortage of a
group of properties), trong trng hp ny gi l tri phiu th chp tng hp
(consolidated mortgage bonds). Tri phiu tng hp cn l tn gi ca mt tri phiu
c to ra bng cch tng hp mt nhm cc tri phiu khc ca mt cng ty .
Tri phiu mnh gi la (Dolar-denominated foreign bonds) c pht hnh ti M bi
nhng cng ty nc ngoi. Thng l giao dch (trading practice) i vi loi tri phiu
ny cng ging nh i vi cc tri phiu cng ty M. Tri phiu m bo bng hng ha
(Commoduty-backed bonds) l nhng tri phiu cng ty c pht hnh vi mnh gi
gn vi gi ca mt s hng ha nht nh.
Tri phiu li sut th ni hoc iu chnh (Floating rate or variable rate bonds) l loi tri
phiu vi li sut c iu chnh theo tng thi.

ng qun tip cn thng tin trong u t chng khon

Rt nhiu nh u t khi quyt nh mua c phiu ca mt cng ty c phn ri, vn
cn cha bit r v cng ty . Mt s cn t hn na l ch mi nghe ni ti l cng ty
nghe n l tt, m khng c mt n lc no tm hiu cho bit ch xc. C nhiu
nh u t cn ni l khng c cch no tip cn ly c thng tin ca cng ty , v
c m khng hiu g c.

Nh u t no cng mong mun k hoch u t ca mnh c thnh cng, em li li

nhun cao. thc hin iu i hi cc nh u t kh nng nh gi v phn tch.

Rt nhiu nh u t khi quyt nh mua c phiu ca mt cng ty c phn ri, vn

cn cha bit r v cng ty . Mt s cn t hn na l ch mi nghe ni ti l cng ty
nghe n l tt, m khng c mt n lc no tm hiu cho bit ch xc. C nhiu
nh u t cn ni l khng c cch no tip cn ly c thng tin ca cng ty , v
c m khng hiu g c. Nu vy ch c mt li khuyn duy nht l bn nn nh mt cng
ty t vn no c uy tn gip nh u t v gii thch cn k cho h v cng ty bn d
nh u t. Cn nu nh u t l ngi mun tm hiu k v mt cng ty c phn trc
khi u t th cn phi tm hiu cng ty qua cc lnh vc sau y:

1. Doanh thu ca cng ty c tng khng?

Nu tng th tng theo mc no. Doanh s ny s cn c vo hot ng chnh ca cng

ty, ch khng th cn c vo cc hot ng ph nh u t ti chnh hay a c ca cng
ty .

2. Li nhun trc thu v sau thu:

Li nhun ny bt buc tng theo doanh s ca cng ty. Nu doanh s tng m li nhun
khng tng! Hy coi chng v chi ph ca cng ty qu nhiu, nn li nhun khng th
tng c. y l du hiu xu cho cng ty c phn. Nh vy bn cn phi xt ti li
nhun bin (profit margin) ca chnh cng ty , trc khi c quyt nh u t.

3. Sn phm v th phn ca cng ty :

u t vo mt cng ty c ngha l ng gp tin vo mt cng ty sn xut hay

cung cp dch v, bn cn phi hiu r v sn phm ny hin nay c phi th mnh ca
cng ty khng? V sn phm ny chim c bao nhiu th phn trn th trng.
Thng thng bn nn chn nhng cng ty hng u ca mt lnh vc sn xut no .
Bi v cng ty hng u c li th v kinh doanh hn nhiu so vi cc cng ty ng hng
th hai th ba Nh vy yu t th phn cn c ch .

4. Chin lc kinh doanh ca cng ty: trong hin ti v tng lai.

Theo mc nh gi ca bn th chin lc ny c kh thi khng? Mt khi chin lc cng

ty sai s lm cho cng ty b thua l, v bn s l nn nhn ca cng ty khi gi c phiu i
xung.
5. Thnh phn Hi ng Qun Tr v Ban Gim c cng ty c thc s gii hay khng?
Nu khng th bn a tin u t nhm cng ty ri !

6. P/E:

T l gi th trng/tin li cng ty c qu cao khng? Nu t l ny cao th ri ro cho

bn cng nhiu. Cn phi ch , t l thp th tt hn

7. Mc tr c tc ca cng ty nh th no?

Bn cn hoch nh li chin lc ca bn, mua c phiu nhn c tc hay mua c

phiu kim chnh lch gi?

8. Cc cng ty i th i vi cng ty bn nh u t nh th no? Mnh hn? Yu hn?

Gii hn? Sn phm tt hn v gi bn r hn? Bn cn phi p dng ng cu ni trong
bnh php Tn T Bit ngi bit ta, trm trn trm thng.

9. S lng c phiu ca cng ty bn u t nhiu hay t? Nu t s li v hi v im

no? Nu cng ty c nhiu c phiu th li v hi im no?

10. Cui cng l thnh phn c ng ca cng ty m bn mun u t l ai? Cc nh u

t ti chnh? Cc nh u t c t chc? Cc nh u t nh? Cng ty gi mt s ln c
phiu.

Nhng yu t ny rt quan trng cho gi th trng ca c phiu. Mt nguyn tc l nu

c ng l php nhn giu c u t vo cng ty th s nh hng rt mnh ti gi c
phiu, hn l nhng nh u t l t, t tin.

* Th trng chng khon: Gi tr ca thng tin

Th trng chng khon si ng l nh c thng tin. Nhng cng nn xem li c nhng

loi thng tin no v c s dng nh th no?

Ch trong vng cha y mt nm, s ti khon ng k ti cc cng ty chng khon

tng gp i, t khong 30.000 ln 60.000 ti khon vi hn 13 triu c phiu cc loi.
c tnh c hn 90% s ti khon l ca cc c nhn. Th trng rt si ng.

Ai c thng tin?

Nh vt l lng t ni ting ngi an Mch, Niels Bohr, ng gp mt lun im l

th v th trng chng khon:

Trong s nhng ngi chi chng khon, nhm th nht l nhng ngi hon ton khng
c thng tin, ch nhm mt mua bn. Theo l thuyt xc sut ngu nhin, bnh qun li
hoc l ca nhm ny ng bng ca bnh qun th trng.
Nhm th hai l nhng ngi c thng tin ring t bn trong (cn gi l thng tin ni
gin), h s thu c siu li nhun. Nhng nu nhm th nht li hoc l theo bnh qun
th trng, th khon siu li nhun ny c t u?

chnh l khon l ca nhm th ba, nhng ngi c thng tin nhng khng y .

Kt lun ca Niels Bohr l: khi khng chc mnh thuc nhm th hai th th nhm th
nht cn hn. Nhng trn thc t, t ai chu chp nhn iu .

C l trn th trng Vit Nam kh nhiu ngi thuc nhm th ba m vn inh ninh tin
l mnh ang nhm th hai. Cn nhng ngi thc s thuc nhm th hai? t ngi bit
n h. Khng ln ting bnh lun, h lng l thu li t nhng bin ng m h bit
trc, thm ch do chnh h to ra.

Mi ngi x l thng tin theo cch ring

C th tm phn loi cc nh u t (hay ngi chi) theo cc th loi nh sau:

Th nht, l nhng nh u t phn tch rt k mi thng tin v cng ty pht hnh c

phiu, v cng ngh, v th trng u vo v u ra, v cc i th cnh tranh. H quyt
nh u t theo thc cht ca cng ty. y l nhng nh u t bit b tin vo nhng
cng ty c trin vng tt, v vy h gip cho nn kinh t pht trin tt hn.

Loi th hai, nghin cu rt k thng tin ca chng khon thy gi bnh qun trong
mt thi gian di. Khi gi tng ln trn bnh qun, h tin l gi s xung, nn h bn ra.
Nh c nhiu ngi bn ra nn gi xung. Ngc li, khi gi xung di mc bnh qun,
h tin l gi s ln, vy l h i mua vo. Nh hnh ng mua vo m gi ln. Nh vy,
nhm ny gp phn lm n nh th trng.

Loi th ba li c tm l ngc li. Khi thy gi mt c phiu ln, h gi nh l ngy

mai s ln na. H x i mua. V h i mua m gi cng ln. Mt khi gi xung, h li
gi nh ngy mai s xung na, vy l vi vng i bn. V nhiu ngi bn m gi
xung li cng xung. Nhm th ba ny thc y s bt n nh ca th trng.

Loi th t l nhng ngi u t theo bnh qun th trng. H mua mt tp hp rt

nhiu loi chng khon khc nhau, tin l c th ny xung th c th khc ln. V th ca
h ty thuc vo bin ng ca chung th trng m t ph thuc vo mt vi c phiu c
th no.

Loi th nm l nhng nh u t tp trung mua c phiu ca mt cng ty nhm n khi

c th t mt phn kim sot cng ty . H gn nh chung thy di hn vi cng ty
v t quan tm n nhng bin ng nht thi theo tm l th trng.

Loi th su l nhng nh u c rt ngn hn. H mua vo bn ra lin tc hng ngy

theo tin n nhanh, c khi sng mua tra bn. Th trng gi nhm ny l gy nhiu.
Tt nhin khng phi ai cng kin nh theo mt cch hnh x chn. V ranh gii gia
cc loi trn khng phi bao gi cng r rng. Nhng nu quan st th trng thi gian
qua, c th thy khng t ngi thuc loi th ba v loi th su.

C nhiu loi thng tin

C nhng li t vn ca nhng t chc chuyn mn, h kinh doanh bng cch a ra

nhng li t vn. Tuy nhin, h li rt d dt trong nhng tnh hung nhy cm. Thng
thng h khng a ra nhng khng nh chc chn v phi lo cho uy tn ca mnh.

C nhng thng tin ca cc cng ty pht hnh ra chng khon. Theo lut, nhng thng tin
ny phi c qua kim ton nn tin cy kh tt. Tuy nhin, khi m th trng ang
st th t ai nhiu n nhng thng tin ny. M kh nng hiu ht c nhng thng
tin ny khng phi ai cng c.

C nhng thng tin ca nhng c quan qun l c nhim v chm lo s pht trin n nh
ca th trng. Ngy 31/3 v 3/4/2006, y ban Chng khon c hai vn bn, gi cc
trung tm giao dch chng khon v gi Ngn hng Nh nc. C hai u nhc nh v
nhng ri ro tim n ca th trng v khuyn ngh cc nh u t thn trng.

C nhng tin n trn th trng m chng bit t u ra. Tt nhin, nhng ngi tung ra
tin ny chng phi chu trch nhim. Cng chng loi tr nhng tin n a ra vi ch
ch y gi ln hay ko gi xung.

Cui cng l nhng thng tin t bo ch. l nhng thng tin c a ch xc thc ca
nhng ngi phi chu trch nhim trc lut php v ni dung ng ti. Hoc bo ch
a ra nhng thng tin c ngun gc r rng. Hoc bo ch a ra nhng li cnh bo cho
nhng ngi chi m khng bit thng tin.