1/6/2017 Evolutionofclaimedevidenceforastrology(Abstract+Article)

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Evolutionofclaimedevidenceforastrology
Sevenexamples1850190819331936195119581976
AbstractDebatesaboutastrologyareasoldasastrologyitself.Buttheproceduresandinferentialstatisticsneededtomake
propertestsdidnotarriveuntilafter1900,andthecomputersneededtoapplythemonalargescaledidnotproperlyarriveuntilthe
1980s.Thisarticlelooksathowtheclaimedevidenceforastrologyevolveduptothe1970susingexamplesfrom1850sastro
meteorology,a1908debatebetweenastrologersandastronomersinthemagazineEnglishMechanic,a1933debatebetween
astrologersandcriticsintheUKnewspaperSundayReferee,a1936bookletbyBritishastrologerCharlesCarteransweringobjections
toastrology,a1951lettersupportingastrologybyPulitzerPrizewinnerandscienceeditorJohnO'Neill,the1958foundingofthe
BritishAstrologicalAssociation,anda1976responseto186scientistsbysciencewriterandHoroscopebookreviewerMarkFeldman.
Thefirstexample(1850s)showshowsciencewasnotyetreadytochallengeastrology.Thenextthreeexamples(1908,1933and
1936)showhowthefailureofcriticstotryastrologyforthemselves,plusthefailureofastrologerstorecognisetheunreliabilityof
experience,ledtotheusualstalemate.Theremainingthreeexamplesshowhowspeculativephysicsin1951andtheAA'sfoundingin
1958,followedbyfurtherspeculativephysicsin1976andtheearliestdirecttests,wereleadingtothestartofquestionsbeing
answered.Theaboveexamplesareareminderofhowlimitedourscientificunderstandingofastrologywasuptothe1970s,andof
thegreatadvancesmadesincethen(aswillbeevidentfromthearticlesonthiswebsiteunderDoingScientificResearch).

1850sAstrometeorology
BasedonMaureenPerkins,VisionsoftheFuture:Almanacs,Time,andCulturalChange17751870,
Clarendon,Oxford1996,pp197230andBrantMVogel,WeatherPredictioninEarlyModern
England,PhDthesis,EmoryUniversity,Georgia2002.

Weatheraffectsalmosteverythingfarming,building,travel,safetyatsea,socialactivityin
general.Sopredictingtheweatherbecameafeatureofalmanacsthat,fromthelate16thcentury
onwards,werethemostwidelyreadliteratureaftertheBible.Predictionswerebasedonplanetary
aspects(egafflictionsfromSaturnindicatedcoldweather)andtheMoon(egachangeinphase
indicatedachangeinweather),whichforcenturieshadbeenpartofnaturalastrology.Nothing
changeduntilthe17thcenturyinventionsofthethermometerandbarometer.

Thenewinstrumentsstartedasahybridofscienceandfolkpractice,thenbecameitemsof
commerceandsignsofclass.Asthemarketforinstrumentsgrew,theRoyalSocietybeganmaking
systematicrecords,andaroundthe1850sBritishastrologerssawweatherpredictionasawayof
makingastrologyrespectable.Weatherwasclearlyrelatedtoatmosphericphenomena,albeitin
unknownways,soademonstrablelinkwithastrologywouldbegoodnews.Proponentsincludedthe
twomostinfluentialastrologersofthetime,namelyR.J.Morrison,compilerofthefamousZadkiel's
Almanac,andW.J.Simmonite,authorofTheArcanaofAstrologytextbook(Simmoniteactuallygave
uphisastrologypracticeinordertoconcentrateonastrometeorology).

Butalmanacswerelosingappeal.Theincreasinguseofbarometers,andarecognitionthatalmanac
predictionswereseldomcorrect,ledtothehopethatsciencemightprovidebetterpredictions.In
1855theBritishGovernmentsetupaMeteorologicalDepartmentthatwassoongatheringenough
datafromsurfaceweatherstationstocreatepressuremapsandissuetwodayforecasts.Butdueto
thelackofupperatmospheredata,alacknotremedieduntiltheearly20thcentury,andafocuson
windforshippingratherthanrainforfarming,theforecastswereseenbylanddwellersasscarcely
moreusefulthanalmanacs.

Neverthelesstheforecastsbegantoappearinnewspapers,nowwidelyaffordable,andthemessage
thatweathercouldbeforecastonlytwodaysaheadwasbadnewsforastrometeorology.Indeed,
onceitbecameclearthattheweatherindifferentpartsoftheworldcouldbecompletelydifferent
despitehavingthesameastrology,astrometeorologywasdoomed.Commonsense(ratherthana
challengefromscience)prevailed.Asnaturalforcesbecamebetterunderstood,andmeteorology
becamemoreandmorerecognisedasascience,astrologerslostinterestintheweather.Later
generationssuchasAlanLeonevermentionedit,andtodayarticlesonastrometeorologyrarely
appearmorethanonceeveryfewyearsinmostastrologyjournals.Itwasperhapsthefirstexample
ofastrology'squestforrespectabilityviaemergingfieldsofscience,andmoreweretofollow.

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FourcenturiesofZodiacalman.Likeastrometeorology,zodiacalmanwasafeatureofastrologyuntilthe20thcentury.Fromleft
torighttheseexamplesarefromLeGrandCalendrieretCompostdesBergers1491,JuneMarsden'sFollowyourStarstoSuccess
1935,andJulesEnquiet'sL'astrologie1786.Zodiacalmanwasneededbyordinarypeopleathomeandonthefarmforfindingthe
bestdaysforbloodletting,purging,surgery,takingmedicine,andsoon.ThusbleedingorsurgeryshouldbeavoidedwhentheMoon
wasinthesignlinkedtotheaffectedpart.Thesystematicallocationofhead=Ariesdowntofeet=Pisceswas,likeplanetarylinks
withtheweather,metaphysicallysoperfectthatnoempiricalconfirmationwasnecessary.Butdespitetheirperfectionandacceptance
overmanycenturies,bothideasfailedtocontributeanythingusefultoscience.Todaytheyillustratehowtheclaimedevidencefor
astrologydidnotproperlyevolveuntilthe20thcentury.

1908AstrologersdebateastronomersintheEnglishMechanic
BasedonAlanLeo,AstrologyandtheScientificPress,ModernAstrologyNewSeries5(5),193206,
May1908.

ForthreemonthsstartinginDecember1907,avigorousdebateaboutastrologyoccurredinthe
correspondencecolumnsoftheweeklyEnglishMechanic,whichis"aseveryoneknowsapaper
largelycontributedtobyastronomers."Itbeganwithaletternotingthat"Practicallyeveryscientific
mantodayregardsastrologyaseitherafraudoradelusion.Astrologers,ontheotherhand,are
equallyassuredthattheirsisatruescience.Whatiswantedisaninvestigationatest...Mere
argumentiswhollybesidethepoint."Towhichawellknownastronomerreplied"Iagree...Let
astrologybetested."TowhichthesubeditorofModernAstrologysuggestedthat,iftheeditorof
EnglishMechaniccaredtosendinthebirthdataandsexofanundisclosedperson,hewouldsend
backchartreadingsbythereadersofMAforhisassessment.TowhichtheEMeditorreplied"We
cannotundertakeourselvestodowhatissuggested"andproposedthatothersmightbeinterested.
Butnobodytookupthechallenge.

Subsequentlettersarguedthatapositiveresultmightnotmeanmuchbecauseitcouldbedueto
ESP,norwoulditestablishastrologyasascience.Thus"Afewselectcases,inwhichthevague
termsofahoroscopecanbeshowntopartiallyagreewiththedestiniesofsomeeminentperson,
havenottheweightofscientificargument."Oneletterasked"WherecanIfindwithinamoderate
compasstheprincipaltheoremsofastrologyandthefactsonwhichtheyarebased?",towhichthe
subeditorofMAsuggestedwritingtohimforabooklist(nobodydid).HealsorecommendedAG
Trent'sThesoulandthestars,an1880articlereprintedin1893asabooklet,whichgavenumerous
examplesofthematchbetweenchartandperson.

Thenearestthelettersgettoevidenceweretwofromastrologers,onenotingvaguelythatastrology
mightbeexplainedby"theelectricaldiscoveriesofProfessorJJThompson",theother(whoseletter
hadopenedthedebateinthefirstplace)notingthat"Whencorrespondentshavelearnedtocastand
judgehoroscopes,itwillbetimeenoughthentoconsidertheirviews.Itwaspracticalinvestigation
thatwonmeovertoastrology,andnothingIhavereadinthesecolumnshasshakenmyfaithinthe
least."

ShortlyafterwardsthedebatewasterminatedbytheEMeditorbecauseitwas"uselesstooccupy
space"whennothingwasbeingachieved.AlanLeonotedhownobodyhadsuppliedasubjectfor
testing,orenquiredaboutbooks,andconcluded"itisdifficult...tobelievethatthecriticsreally
desiretofindoutthetruth."(p.206)

AlanLeo(18601917)isgenerallyacknowledgedasthefatherofmodernastrology.Throughhismagazinesandbooksheconverted
apredictionorientedtraditionintoasystematicmethodofpsychologicalanalysiswithastrongspiritualbasisthatreflectedhis
Theosophistviews.In1902hefoundedtheSocietyforAstrologicalResearch,thefirstofitskind,butitlastedonlyoneyear.

Butstalematewasinevitable,simplybecauseastrologerswereputtingtheonusonscientists(rather
thanonthemselves)toprovideevidence,andneithersidehadany.Overallarevealingsnapshotof
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theearlyyears.Asshownnext,asimilardebatefaredbetterin1933,mostlikelybecausethe
emergenceofSunsigncolumnsthreeyearspreviouslyhaddrawnattentiontoastrologylikenever
before.

1933AstrologersdebatecriticsintheSundayReferee
TheUKSundayRefereewasanationalnewspaper(circulation350,000)notedforitslivelycontent
andlargecontroversialpostbag.On11June1933aletternotingthefailureofastrologerstopredict
theEpsomDerbywinnerledtothepublicationofnearly50responses(afractionofthosereceived)
overthenextthreemonths.Thedebatewasheatedandwordybutbothsidesshowedmore
familiaritywithastrologyandsciencethanintheEnglishMechanicdebate25yearsearlier.Itwas
alsoprobablythefirsttoappearinamajorUKnewspaper.Initiallytherewasthesamelackofhard
evidence:

Supportersarguedthatplanetsareoccupiedbygodswhoinfluenceouraffairscommercialisationis
deplorablebutdoesnotsilencethetruthcriticsshouldverifyforthemselvesthatbirthcharts
accuratelyindicatecharacterplanetsrotatingintheetheremitradiationthatactsonearthcritic
X'sletterishotheadedandexactlymatcheshischartastrologyisthescienceofsubtleelectro
magneticenergiesanastrologerreadingmychartgotmoredetailsthananyonecouldknowoutside
myselfastrologyworksandtheoreticalreasonswhycanbegivenastrologyisnotmysticalbut
subjecttolawsascertainablebyexperimentintheJune1933issueofAstrologyacorrectweather
forecastwasmadeamonthinadvance(thiswasfromleadingBritishastrologerCharlesCarterwho
featuresinthenextsection).

Criticsarguedthatplanetarygodsareunbelievableastrologerscounthitsandignoremissesthe
futureisinthehandsofourCreatornotastrologyastrologyworksviageneralitiesandfailson
specificsastrologyhasnoscientificproofonlyunsupportedspeculationsnobodyshouldbelievethat
massesofhydrogenandheliumcouldaffectthedestiniesofmentheonlycureforastrologyis
moreeducationinsciencemeasuringlifebyheavenlyconjunctionsisutterlyuselessIhaveseen
severalpredictionsoftheDerbywinnerandeveryonewaswrongplaguesandpestilencesarise
fromstinkingdrainsandpollutedriversnotfromthestarsMrCarterignoresthemanywrong
forecaststhatappearedinAstrology.

Prominentweretwoastrologersclaimingtobescientific:

EdgarBrayBScurgedignoringsecondhandopinionsinfavouroftestingtheclaims.Itisunfairto
judgeastrologyviacomplicatedpredictions.Insteadstartwithsomethingsimple.Whichnativehas
redhairandwhichhasblackhair?Ibelievemyhitratewouldexceed95%.Whichnativeis
quarrelsomeandwhichismild?Ibelievemyhitratewouldbe100%.Asolareclipsein27Leo
occurson21August1933.Subsequenttransitsbymajorplanetsoverthisdegreeindicatewar,
earthquakesorotherdisastersinCentralAmerica(wheretheeclipseisoverhead)inJanuary,May
orOctober1934.InEnglandtherecouldbeseriousepidemicsinJanuary.
EdgarBraywasafriendofCharlesCarter,whodescribedhimas"inhisownfieldoneofthebest"(inTheLunarPrinciple,Astrology
26(3),1952).BraypublishedarticlesinAstrology,anddiedprematurelyinthe1950sfromacerebraltumour.

WilliamJTuckerclaimedastrologyisasciencebutDerbypredictionisfutile.Vaguepronouncements
donotadvancedebate.Astrologyprovidesexplanationsthatarescientificallyverifiable.Otherthan
incertainphilosophicalareasmyastrologyispurelyscientific.Eventscanoccurbecauseoffate,
purpose,orchance,ofwhichonlythefirstcanbetracedtothestars.MrBrayhasshownheis
workingwithprogressionsandtransits,butsuchapproachesareunscientificandworthless.His
warningwillnotbefulfilled.On20August1906aneclipsetookplacein27Leo,exactlysimilarto
thisyear,buthistoricalrecordsindicatenocorrespondinghappenings.

WilliamJTucker(18961981)wasaBritishastrologerofsomestanding.Hisfirstcontactwithastrologycamein1929atage33
throughthewritingsofAlanLeo,whosemysticalcontenthedidnotlike.Soheaimedtoputastrologyonascientificbasis.By1960
hehadwritten24books,mostofthemselfpublished,andover300articlesduring19511960alone.(FromhisAutobiographyofan
Astrologer1960.)

Hardevidencewasnowhereinsightuntilfiveweeksintothedebate,whenacriticidentifiedonlyas
"JSS"proposedatestthatbothBrayandTuckeraccepted.IwasborninEnglandon8June1907at4
pm.Whatismyhaircolour,sex,height,weight,profession,religion,politics,stateofhealth,and
chiefhobby?(16July1933,whenhewasaged26)

SixweekslaterJSSannouncedtheresults.NeitherBraynorTuckerknewanythingaboutmeexcept
mybirthdata.Bothareveryexperiencedandbothclaimtobescientific.Theyareopenly
contemptuousofeachother'smethods,andbothareequallywideofthemark,theoutcomebeing:
hits1(politics),misses5(haircolour,height,weight,religion,health),notdefinitemisses3
(profession,hobby,marriage).Hardlysupportfortheclaimsofastrology.
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Bothastrologersalsogaveacharacterreading,andhereJSS'stestwasperhapsthefirstofitskind
tousecontrols,albeitcrudeones.Sohisassessmentisworthdescribinginsomedetail:.
Character.Herebothastrologersbecomemuchmoreprolific,definite,andflattering.BraysaysIamhighlygiftedandartistic,with
anoblecharacterandanaccuratesenseofvalues.TuckersaysIamveryemotional,strong,determined,practical,veryartistic,
logical,intellectual,precise,loyal,hardworking,ambitious,sensitive,obstinate,andsympathetic.Nowthecrudecontrols.Earlier
todayIgotcharacterreadingsfromthreedifferentweighingmachines[insertapennytoreceiveyourweightprintedonacardwitha
characterreadingontheback].TheyagreewitheachotheraboutaswellasBrayandTuckerdo.TogethertheysayIamshrewd.
practical,goodatdetail,anexcellentjudgeofpeople(allofwhichcoincidewithwhatTuckersays),slightlysuperstitious,tactful,
resourceful,andinventive.

JSSconcluded:"Thetesthasbeenanunqualifiedandobviousfailuresuggestingunmistakablythat
astrologyhasnoscientificorpracticalsignificance,andthatthestarscantellmenothingthatI
cannotgetforapennyoutofanautomaticmachinewithequalcertaintyofbeingcorrectly
informed."(20August1933)

SundayRefereeheadlineannouncesJSS'stestresult

Onecriticnoticedfurtherproblems:Brayqualifieshisstatementswithvaguenesssotheymaymean
anythingornothing.TuckerknowsallaboutJSS'spersonalitybutnothingabouthisprofessionor
hobbies.IfJSSmatchesTucker'sdescriptionhemustbeasmadasahatterHowcananyonewho
isemotionalandtemperamentalbepracticalanddetermined?Orbesuitedtobeingasalesman?
Howcanachangeablemindbelogicalandprecise?AsforBray'seclipsebasedforecast,seismic
eventsarecommoninCentralAmerica,andEnglandalwaysgetsinfluenzaepidemicsinJanuary.So
MrBray'sguesscannotbewrong.Conclusion:"Astrologersbattenonthealmostuniversal
unwillingnessofpeopletoexaminetheirpropheciescloselyandtheequallycommontendencyof
inadequatelyeducatedpeopletobeswayedbycabalisticterminologyandhighsounding
phraseology.Astrologersareeitherconsciousknavesorunconsciousfools".(13August1933)

On27August1933,after11weeksofheateddebate,theeditorannounced"Thecorrespondenceon
Astrologymustnowberegardedasclosed",implyingthatonetestwasworthathousandquarrels.
Headded"Weshallreturntothequestionatalaterdate."Butitneverhappened.Perhapsbecause
thenewspaperceasedpublicationwhenitwassoldin1939.

1936CharlesCarteranswersobjectionstoastrology
BasedonCharlesCarter,34ObjectionstoAstrology,StatedandAnswered,privatelypublished1936,
reprintedasSomeObjectionstoAstrologyStatedandAnswered,AstrologicalAssociation1968,a
tinybookletof24pages.AccordingtotheeditoroftheAstrologicalJournal(1991,33,208),until
1990itwastheonlyworkofitskind,atleastinEnglish.(The1990additionwasRobertParry's
Astrology'sCompleteBookofSelfDefence,reviewedonthiswebsiteunderBookReviews.)

Coverpricein1968wastwopence
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CharlesCarterwastheleadingBritishastrologerofhisdayandwasnotedforhisclearwriting.His
34objectionsareactuallyquestionssuchas"Howisitthattwinsareoftendissimilarindisposition
andfortune?"(Answer:theirnativitiesareneveridentical.)Questions4and5comeclosesttothe
issueofevidence.Thefirstasks"Isitnotonthefaceofitabsurdtobelievethingsasdistantasthe
planetscanaffecthumanbeings?",towhichCarterrepliesbyappealingtoexperienceandauthority:

"Thisquestionisbestansweredbyanappealtofacts,forAstrologyisstilllargelyinthestageof
beinganempiricalscience,thatis,itisasciencethatobservesandutilisesfacts....Astrologers
KNOW,asamatterofpracticalresearch,thatthestellarandplanetaryorbsarerelatedtohuman
beingsandanyinquirercansoonprovethematterforhimself....Theonlydeniersofastrological
truthsarethosewho,beingentirelyignorantofitsprinciplesandpractice,areyetsodevoidofthe
truescientificspiritthattheywillnotabstainfrompassingjudgementuponwhatsomeofthe
greatestmindsofthepast[suchasKepler]havestudiedandbelieved."

Thenextquestionpointsoutthat,evenif"planetsarerelatedtoemotionalorevenphysicalchanges
inourorganisms,itisstillveryhardtobelievetheycanbringaboutpurelyaccidentalhappenings",
towhichCarterrepliesbyagainappealingtoexperience:

"Itmustbefranklygrantedthatitishardtoexplainthisonlinesthatcanappealtooneaccustomed
tothinkonlyobjectively.Yetitisundoubtedthatallimportanteventsareindicatedinthehoroscope
ofbirth,ornativity,andthetimeatwhichtheyhappencanbeascertainedbywhatarecalled
'directions',someofwhichcanbeseenataglancefromthenativity."

Controlledtestswerestillsomedecadesaway,andotherquestionsareansweredbythesame
appealtoexperience."Hasastrologyanyvaluefromthestandpointofhealth?"(Yes.)"Besidesthis,
ofwhatpracticaluseisAstrology?"(Itshowsabilitiesandwherebesttoapplythem.)"IfAstrology
issohelpful,howisitthatastrologersthemselvesarenotpreeminentlysuccessfulinlife?"(Some
are,butmostdonotseekmaterialsuccess.)"HowcanIbesurethatanyparticularpractitioner
reallyknowshisbusiness?"(Byrecommendationorbyresults.)Inshort,therewasnoadvanceover
thepreviousstalemates.
However,attemptstobreakthestalematebyempiricaltestswerebeingmadebyasmallnumberofastrologersinEurope,among
themPaulChoisnard(18671930),whojustbeforehisdeathpublisheda212pagebookLesObjectionscontrel'Astrologie:Reponses
auxcritiquesanciennesetmodernes(Leroux,Paris1929).Inithesystematicallysetsouttheargumentsagainstastrology(twins,
precession,fatalism,etc)withcounterargumentsbasedonhisownempiricaltests.Later,GauquelinfoundfatalflawsinChoisnard's
tests(seePart1underGauquelinonthiswebsite),sothecounterargumentscametonothing.Neverthelesstheysignalledthestartof
acrucialmoveawayfromclaimsbasedonunreliableexperience,amovethat,viaGauquelinandothers,eventuallyledtothelarge
researchbasethatexiststoday.Butasshownbelow,earlyprogresswaspainfullyslow.

1951LetterbyJohnO'Neillsupportingastrology
BasedonSydneyOmarr,MyWorldofAstrology,Wilshire1965:3145

On2930June1951therewasalatenightthreehourtablepoundingdebateonradioWPENin
PhiladelphiabetweenastrologerSydneyOmarrandDrRoyKMarshall,directoroftheFels
PlanetariuminPhiladelphia.DrMarshallwasalsoscienceeditorofthePhiladelphiaEveningBulletin
(thenthelargesteveningnewspaperintheUSA),apopularspokesmanforastronomy,andwell
knownforhisvitriolicattacksonastrology.Hewastheclassicclosedmindeddebunker.

AlongthewayOmarrquotedJohnJO'Neill,PulitzerPrizewinnerandscienceeditoroftheNewYork
HeraldTribune,fromatalkO'Neillgavein1942totheAstrologer'sGuildofAmericainNewYork.
AccordingtoOmarr,O'Neillheldapositiveviewofastrology,butMarshall(whoknewO'Neillvery
well)didnotbelievehim.OmarrsubsequentlywrotetoO'Neillforclarification,andreceiveda
promptreply.Excerptsrelevanttotheclaimedevidenceforastrologyarereproducedbelow.
8July1951
DearMrOmarr:

Thequotationyouciteis:"WhileIdonotbelieveallastrologyisscientificandworthwhilethereisacertainamountofgoodwork
beingdoneinthatfieldanditisthatwhichmakesmetrytodosomethingtohelptheastrologers."

Ihavenohesitancyinverifyingthequotation.IfIweremakingthestatementtodayIwouldmakeitmuchstrongeronthebasisof
developmentsinthemeantime....Ihavehad,overalongperiodofyears,extensivecontactwithallofthesciencesfrom
anthropologytozoology.Ihave[also]madenumerouscontactswithastrology.ForyearsIcondemneditasunscientificandtotally
irrational....[But]IhavelearnedthatastrologyissomethingvastlydifferentfromwhatIthoughtitwas,andwhatmostastrologers
thinkitis....Astrology,properlydefined,istheaccumulatedandorganizedknowledgeoftheeffectonmanoftheforcesreaching
theearthfromsurroundingspace....

Thehypothesisoftheastrologersthatforcesaretransmittedtotheearthwithoutattenuationwithincreasingdistance,anddonot
varywithrespecttothedifferencesinmassesoftheSun,Moonandplanetsonwhichtheyoriginate,wastotallyinconsistentwiththe
oldstyleNewtonianmechanics,buttodayitisincompleteaccordwiththemuchmorerecentEinsteinphotoelectrictheory,which
demonstratesthattheeffectofaphotondoesnotdiminishwithdistance,andwhichhasbeenuniversallyadoptedbyscientiststo
supplanttheNewtonianmechanicsinthatfield....Avitalisticcosmogonywillrecognizeacompleteandmostintimateharmonic

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relationship,inasinglepattern,betweeneveryentityfromthefundamentalparticles,throughtheatoms,throughman,throughthe
planetarysystem,throughthegalaxies,thecosmos,totheGodheaditself.Thehypothesesofastrologyareconsistentwithsucha
vitalisticcosmogony.Inthisrespect,theastrologicalconceptismuchmoremodernthantheastronomical....

InpresentingthisobjectiveviewofastrologyIdonotwanttobemisunderstoodasrecommendingthatscientiststakelessonsinthe
techniqueofcastingandinterpretinghoroscopes,orthatIamgivingsanctiontothevariedmisconceptionsandunsupportedclaimsin
whichmanyoftheastrologersindulge....Idourgeanextensivestatisticalinvestigationofeveryclaimforspecificand
configurationaleffectsattributedtotheplanetsbytheastrologers.Untilthisisdone,noscientistcanprovidejustificationformaking
astatementfororagainsttheexistenceofsucheffects....[But]scientistsarenotgoingtorushintothisfieldtotakeupresearch
problems.Thetaskmustrestlargelyontheastrologersthemselves.

Sincerelyyours,JohnJO'Neill

InhindsightwecanseethatO'Neill'scommentsarebasedmoreonextraterrestrialinfluencesthan
onastrologyitself.HewouldhavebeenawareofEllsworthHuntington(seasonaleffects)andEdward
Dewey(cycles).HewasalsoawareofVelikovsky,whosenowdiscreditedviewshedescribedas"a
magnificentpieceofscholarlyhistoricalresearch".Hisviewoftheneedtojustifystatementsforor
againstplanetaryeffectswaswidelyheld,butgettingadequatedataandpropertestswasvery
difficult,aswasdoingeverycalculationbyhand,tosaynothingofovercomingprejudice.
Nevertheless,comparedto1908and1936,wecanseehereacontinuationofthemovetowards
empiricalfindings,andawayfromclaimsbasedonunreliableexperience.

1958FoundingoftheAstrologicalAssociation
Themoveawayfromclaimsbasedonunreliableexperiencegainedadecisiveimpetuswhenthe
BritishAstrologicalAssociation(popularlyknownastheAA)wasfoundedin1958.Afterlengthy
discussion,thefoundinghadbeenfixedinadvanceforSaturday21Juneat8:22pminLondon,at
whichmomentthechairmanofthemeeting,watchinhand,announcedthattheAAhadbeenborn.

JupiterwasalmostexactlyontheMC,SaturnwasthreedegreesbelowtheAscendant,andthe
closestaspectswithintwodegreeswere(inorder)JupitersextileSaturn,SunsextilePluto,Mars
trineUranus,MercurytrineNeptune,andMoonsquareVenus.Somethingforeveryone.

Left:theAA'soriginallogodevisedbyJohnAddey:"TheCROWNsymbolisestheroyalcharacteroftheartandscienceofAstrology,
theSTARtheheavenlybodies,theLIGHTNINGFLASHtheIrresistiblePowerfromAbove.ItisalsoasubsidiarysymbolofUranus,
usuallyregardedastheplanetofAstrology.TheBLACKGROUNDsymbolisesNight,whichisthefieldofAstrology,bothinthe
mysticalandmundanesense".Right:theAA'slogofrom1971andstillinusetoday.OrangewastheAAjournal'scovercolourfrom
1969through1996.

Inthe1950stheleadingastrologicalbodyintheUKwastheAstrologicalLodgeoftheTheosophical
Society,whichhadbeenfoundedin1917byAlanLeo(18601917).From1920until1952its
presidentwasCharlesCarter(18871968),theleadingBritishastrologerofhistime,followeduntil
1982byRonaldDavison(19141985).TheLodgearrangedmanyexcellentlecturesanddiscussions
initsLondonmeetingrooms,buttherewasnoprovisionforresearch.Somemembersledby
BrigadierRoyFirebrace(18891974),JohnAddey(19201982),andJoanRodgers(19251980),allof
whomwereorhadbeenvicepresidents,feltthatanewresearchorientedorganisationwasneeded
awayfromTheosophy,andinJune1958theAstrologicalAssociationwasfounded.Withinoneyearit
had130members.

Firebracewasasiderealastrologer,biginframeandheart,whohadworkedcloselywiththe
eminentsiderealistCyrilFagan(18961970)anddidnotsufferfoolsgladly.Rodgerswaseditorof
theArtsCouncilmagazineandamodelofgoodsenseandclarity.Addeywasaremarkable
combinationoflucidandeloquentwriter,practicalmystic,inspiringorganiser,brillianttheoretician,
andunflaggingexperimentalist,whothreeyearsearlierhadsetout"todiscoveranddemonstrate,if
possible,asecurescientificbasisforastrology.BeingwhollyconvincedofthetruthofthisstudyI
believedthatsuchademonstrationwouldberelativelyeasy.Iwasmistaken."(SelectedWritings.
AFA,TempeAZ,1976:159)

FirebracewastheAA'sfirstpresident,Rodgersitsfirsteditor,andAddeyitsfirstsecretary.
FirebracewantedthenewAssociationtobeexclusivelysidereal,butthiswasresisted,soinMarch
1961heresignedtofoundthesiderealjournalSpica.Addeywaselectedpresidentinhisplace,
holdingthispositionuntil1973.Hewasalsoeditor19621972followingRodgers'resignationdueto

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illhealth,andoriginatoroftheAA'slogo.FourpagesofphotographsoftheAA'sleadingplayers
appearinAstrologicalJournalSummer1979.

TheJune1958issueoftheLodgemagazinelistedtheaimsofthenewAssociation,whichincluded
"toenlargetheknowledgeofAstrologyinascientificspirit",andhadabriefstatementbyJohn
Addeyinwhichheurgedusingthescientificapproachfor"distinguishingfactualtruthfromerror,for
checkingtheories."Afterthefirstmeeting"Variousresearchprojectswerestartedandenthusiastic
volunteerswenttotheBrigadier'shousetolistplanetarypositionsetcofextensivecollectionsof
doctors,clergymen,orwhatever,whosebirthdateshadbeenculledfromsuchsourcesasWho's
Who,theobjectbeingeventuallytoteststatisticallythevalueoftraditionalideasorformulatenew
ones"(JamesRussell,EarlyDaysoftheAssociation,AstrologicalJournal1983,25,148149).

Elevenyearslater,inSeptember1969,thenewAssociationhelditsfirstconference,aonedaynon
residentialinLondononTheFutureofAstrology.Thetalkswerenotablyresearchoriented,and"for
thefirsttime(inAssociationhistory)astrologersfromLondonandthehomecountieswerejoinedby
countryandoverseasmemberstoprovideanaltogethermorevigorousandoriginalmixtureofideas
andaspirations"(AstrologicalJournalWinter1969:11).TheAssociationwasprovidingan
environmentwheretheslowmoveawayfromclaimsbasedonunreliableexperiencecouldnow
flourish,amovethatinduecoursewouldrevolutionisetheunderstandingofastrology.The
Associationwasalsoinspiringthefoundingofresearchorganisationsinothercountries,suchasthe
InternationalSocietyforAstrologicalResearch(1968)andNationalCouncilforGeocosmicResearch
(1972)intheUSA,andNederlandseVerenigingtotWetenschappelijkOnderzoekvandieAstrologie
(1976)intheNetherlands.FormoreontheAA'sresearchorientationseePatronofresearchonthis
websiteunderHistorical.

1976ResponsebyMarkFeldmanto186scientists
BasedonMarkFeldman'sarticle"HoroscopevsTheHumanist:AnExposeoftheScientists'
ObjectionstoAstrology",DellHoroscopeMarch1976:3740.Feldmanwasasciencewriterandbook
reviewerforDellHoroscope.Whenin1975TheHumanistpublishedits"ObjectionstoAstrology"and
astatementsignedby186scientists,hetalkedtopeopleonbothsidesandconcludedthatthe
objectorsweregenerallymisinformedorignorantaboutastrology.Theoutcomewastheabove
article.Excerptsrelevanttotheclaimedevidenceforastrologyaregivenbelow.Theheadingshave
beenadded.

Thestatementby186scientistsasseenbycartoonistCraigofTheColumbusDispatch.
Theafflictedastrologerissaying"Myhoroscopesaidthismighthappen".

Softevidenceforastrology
WherewehavesomepractitionersdevotedtolittlemorethantheSunSigns,wealsohave
universityprofessorsutilizingastrologyaspartoftheirlecturesonhumanbehaviorwherewehave
astrologybuffsplayingparlorgames,wealsohavedoctorsofmedicineinsistingonseeinga
patient'shoroscopechartbeforeheevenseesthepatientandwhereweundoubtedlydohavesome
astrologerswhoseaimsarequestionable,wealsohavepsychologistslikethelateCarlJungand
VernonClark,aswellasRalphMetznerandZipporahDobyns,researcherslikeCarlPayneTobeyand
JohnandJamesWilliamsen,andwriterslikeJohnAddeyandJosephGoodavageallhumblyoffering
theresultsoftheirworknoneofwhichhasbeendisprovenbasedonthetenetsofmodern
science.

Hardevidenceforastrology
Noastrologerorastronomercanyetexplainhoworwhytheastrologicalpremiseof
cosmic/planetaryinfluenceworks,buttodenytheirexistencesummarilyisludicrous....Any
suggestionthattheSun,forexample,doesnothaveaprofoundinfluenceonthisplanetbecauseof

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thedistanceinvolvediswhollyinadequateandinaccurate....Sovietscientistshavebeencarefully
studyingtworesearchtrendsestablishedin1915:(1)changesinthefunctionalstateofthehuman
nervoussystemundertheeffectofsolarfactors(2)studiesofworldstatisticsofepidemic
diseases,wherethelargenumberscouldfacilitatedetectionofthereflectedeffectofsolar
disturbancesandplanetaryconfigurations.

Theresultswereextremelymeaningful.Aparallelismwassoonestablishedbetweentheincidenceof
mostepidemics,suchascholera,grippe,plague,diphtheria,relapsingfever,andcerebrospinal
meningitis,andthesolaractivitycycle.Statisticallypositiveresultsthenledtoastudyoftheoverall
mortalityrate,resultinginadetectionofthesameremarkablecorrelationinthisfield."Thetime
coincidenceoftheheliogeophysicalandthepathologicalphenomenaundoubtedlyindicatesan
exceptionallycloserelationshipbetweenthemi.e.,acertainheliogeophysicalfactorsynchronously
provokesamarkedincreaseinmortalityatvariousplacesontheplanet.Thecorrelationcoefficient
forsomeofthesecurvesisveryclosetounity"(AChizhevskii,"PhysicochemicalReactionsas
IndicatorsofCosmicPhenomena,TheEarthintheUniverse,1968)."Fromthetimedistributionof
mortality,"thescientistsgoontosay,"wemayconcludethatthenumberofdeathscausedby
certaindiseasesatagivenmomentdependsmainlyuponthefrequencyandintensityofthespecific
solarradiation.Itwouldbeerroneoustoassumethattheailmentsordeathswerecausedbythese
radiations.Thelattermayonlyprovidetheimpetus,which,inthepresenceofsuitableconditionsin
theorganism,causesitsdeath."

Gauquelin
[Feldmannoteswithoutgivingdetailsthattherehavebeen"numerousstatisticalstudiesconducted
overtheyears,mostlybyastrologers."HehadpreviouslyreviewedGauquelin'sworkinHoroscope,
November1974,sohistreatmenthereisbrief.]

[Gauquelin'sworkhasbeendismissed]as"aninterestingcasewhereintotallyfallaciousresults
appeartobescientificallyvalid."[And]as"complexstatisticalmanipulations."Gauquelin'sstatistics
arenot"manipulations"atall:theyarenothingmoreor]essthanpurestatistics!Itshouldbe
rememberedthatGauquelinsoughtdesperatelytodisproveastrology,but,muchtohisamazement
andshock,hefoundthatplanetaryinfluenceisafact.

Evidenceagainstastrology
First,noonehaseverdisprovedastrology,andIdonotexpectscienceeventotry,foritisnot
practicaltoexpectanyonetoproveanegative.ItislikeexpectingsomeonetoprovethatGodor
UFO'sdonotexist.Whatastrologerswouldpreferisthatscienceactivelybecomeinvolvedinserious
empiricalresearchinthisfield.Secondly,ifanyonehasestablishedscientificevidencethatthe
astrologicalpremiseisinvalid,ithasyettoreachmyattention.

Astrology'spopularity
AsProfessorMimiLobellofthePrattInstituteinBrooklynrecentlycommented,"Thereasonfor
astrology'spopularityisthatitofferspeoplewhatsciencedoesnotapsychologicallymeaningful
linkbetweentheindividualandthecosmos"(ScienceNews:Letter,October4,1975)."Todismiss
astrology,"ProfessorLobellcontinues,"assuperstitionshowsalackofunderstandingofthe
primordialpsychologicalneedforameaningfulrelationshipwiththecosmos...Itisacallfor
cognitiveframeswhichdescribenotonlytheorderoftheuniverse,butalsogivetheindividuala
sublimesenseofparticipationinthatorder."

Futureofastrology
Itseemstherearetwopossibilities:Eitherastrologywilleventuallycomeintoitsownasan
interdisciplinaryscientificfieldofinquiry,oritwillbeassimilatedintootherdisciplinesofscience.In
otherwords,asoneastronomerputit,"scienceisalready'chippingaway'atvariousastrological
accomplishments,includingthemaspartofexistingfields,andclaimingallalongthatastrologyhas
hadnothingtodowithit."Thedefinitiveworkonsolarinfluenceandbiologicalprocesses,discussed
earlier,representsanexamplethatthishasalreadybeguntohappen.Sciencewillrenamethe
phenomenasuchasastrobiologyorcosmopsychologyandreclassifytheirdisciplinaryorigins,
withnomentionofastrologyashavingpavedtheway....

Astrologyhascontributedtotheknowledgeofmodernscienceinnosmallway.(SeeJohnNelson,
CosmicPatterus,AFAWashingtonDC1974,andGiorgioPiccardi,TheChemicalBasisofMedical
Climatologp,SpringfieldIL1963)Thefactthatthisfieldalwaysseemstobeafewyardsaheadof
scienceshouldbeconsideredcommendable:foralthoughwecannotyetfullyunderstandthe
phenomenawestudy,wehavelongrecognizedthemasbeinginexistence."Thefactthatman
discoveredthatthereweremicrobesdidnotsolvethemysteryoftheuniverse,itonlyincreasedit"
(ErnestCuneo,ScienceandHistory,Duell,SloanandPearce,NY1963).Sotoowithastrology.

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InhindsightwecanseethatFeldman'scomments,likeO'Neill's,werebasedmoreonextraterrestrial
influences(mostlysolar)thanonastrologyitself.Butdirecttestswereonlyjustemerging,aswere
theresultsoftheAA'sfocusonresearch,sotherewasnorealalternative.Theideathat"noonehas
everdisprovedastrology"mighthavepleasedastrologersbutittendedtoviewastrologyasa
yes/noeffect,whichtodayisadequatelycounteredbyconsiderationsofeffectsizeandartifacts.The
appealto"apsychologicallymeaningfullink"withthecosmoswastrueofanyreligionandhardly
amountedtoclaimedevidence.Theideathat"astrologyhascontributedtotheknowledgeofmodern
science"(andwillendupasscience)wasplausibleonlybyredefiningastrologyasphysics,which
mostastrologerstodaywouldvigorouslyreject.Overallareminderofhowlimitedourscientific
understandingwasofastrologyonlythirtyyearsago,andofthegreatadvancesmadesincethen(as
willbeevidentfromthearticlesonthiswebsiteunderDoingScientificResearch).

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