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Title : (S//NF) France: 2012 Presidential Election

Originator Classification : SECRET//NOFORN

Levy date : 2011/11/17

Originator Classification : SECRET//NOFORN


Type Start Coverage Stop Coverage Expires Last Edited
Limited Duration 2011/11/21 2012/07/31 2012/09/29 2011/11/17 13:22Z

(U//FOUO) Supported Element(s):


STATE/INR
DIA/USEUCOM
CIA

Related Non-SIGINT Discipline(s) :


Discipline Comment
HUMINT (S//REL TO USA, AUS, CAN, GBR, NZL) Additional versions of this requirement
have been sent to HUMINT collectors.
OSINT (U//FOUO) Alternative versions of requirements have been tasked to OSC
Related IN Number(s) : 2005-348

Background/Justification :

(S//NF) Analysts in CIA's Office of Russian and European Analysis (OREA) closely watched
the Oct 9th and Oct 16th Socialist primaries and will be closely monitoring the April 22nd and
May 6th 2012 Presidential elections. Of particular interest is President Sarkozy, the Socialist
Party (PS), and other potential candidate's plans and intentions for these elections. Analysts
assess that the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP), the current ruling party, is not assured of
winning the presidential election and, as a result, analysts are interested in the electoral strategy
of the non-ruling parties listed below. Additional information on these topics will help analysts
assess, and prepare key US policymakers for, the post-election French political landscape and
the potential impact on US-France relations.

Guidance for UCS :

(C//NF) please contact CIA/DI Office of Collection


Strategies and Analysis (CSAA), IC E-Mail @cia.ic.gov, NSTS phone 935-
.

(S//NF) These requirements are NOFORN due to Friends-on-Friends sensitivities.

(S//NF) French political parties and persons of interest include:


A. (S//NF) Socialist Party (PS)
B. (S//NF) National Front (FN)
C. (S//NF) Union for a Popular Movement (UMP)
D. (S//NF) Dominique Strauss-Kahn (DSK)
E. (S//NF) Nicolas Sarkozy
F. (S//NF) Martine Aubry
G. (S//NF) Francois Hollande
H. (S//NF) Marine Le Pen
EEI : A

EEI Classification : SECRET//NOFORN

Originator EEI Classification : SECRET//NOFORN

EEI Title : (S//NF) Sarkozy and Contenders Strategic Election Plans

Question(s) :
1. (S//NF) Report on deliberations by Sarkozy, or other high level government officials
regarding the presidential candidates in the 2012 election.
2. (S//NF) Report efforts by Sarkozy, the Socialist party, or others to manage the 2012
elections, including:
A. (S//NF) Discussions that indicate Sarkozy's level of confidence in his ability to contest the
election.
B. (S//NF) Attempts to pass guidance or directives to parties or individuals on supporting
activities or initiatives.
C. (S//NF) How Sarkozy and his advisors interact.
3. (S//NF) Report any discussions regarding guidance from Sarkozy or Martine Aubry, Francois
Hollande, or Dominique Strauss-Kahn on the upcoming elections.

SIGINT sub-discipline(s) : COMINT

The following table is classified: SECRET//NOFORN

Topic/Geopolitical/Priority
SIGIN
Topic Ba MB Geopolitical National Contribu T
Citation Topic
ID nd B Area Priority tion Priorit
y
DEPS/Democrat
ization and DEPS.
9A2011-572-01 A DIP France X Key 9
Political Z
Stability

Reporting Criteria :
Report Type Delivery Mechanism Reporting Timeline
EGRAM Electrical Message 72 Hours After
Recognition/Detection

PROFORMA Datalinks : No
EEI : B

EEI Classification : SECRET//NOFORN

Originator EEI Classification : SECRET//NOFORN

EEI Title : (S//NF) Non-Ruling Political Parties and Candidates Strategic Election Plans

Question(s) :
1. (S//NF) Report on rising party leaders, newly developed political parties or movements, and
emerging presidential candidates, to include:
A. (S//NF) Party platforms, plans, or strategies for the upcoming election.
B. (S//NF) Efforts to influence and implement political decisions.
C. (S//NF) Support or opposition towards parties or leaders.
D. (S//NF) Support from local government officials, government elites, or business elites.
E. (S//NF) Views and characterization of the United States.
F. (S//NF) Efforts to reach out to leaders of other countries, to include but not limited to, Germany,
UK, Libya, Israel, Palestine, Syria, Cote d'Ivoire.
2. (S//NF) Report on the major sources of funding for the presidential candidates and registered
parties.
3. (S//NF) Report on the presidential candidates' views on the French economy.
A. (S//NF) What current economic policies do they see as not working?
B. (S//NF) What policies do they promote to help boost France's economic growth prospects?
C. (S//NF) What are their opinions on the German model of export-led growth?
4. (S//NF) Report on the presidential contenders' views on the euro zone crisis to include, but not
limited to:
A. (S//NF) Their views on the Greek debt crisis.
B. (S//NF) The role of France and Germany in the management of the crisis.
C. (S//NF) The vulnerability of the French government and French banks to a Greek default.
5. (S//NF) Please report on any specific proposals or recommendations to help solve the euro-zone
crisis.

SIGINT sub-discipline(s) : COMINT

The following table is classified: SECRET//NOFORN

Topic/Geopolitical/Priority
SIGIN
Topic Ba MB Geopolitical National Contribu T
Citation Topic
ID nd B Area Priority tion Priori
ty
DEPS/Democratizatio
9B2011- DEPS.
n and Political A DIP France X Key 9
572-01 Z
Stability

Reporting Criteria :
Report Type Delivery Mechanism Reporting Timeline
EGRAM Electrical Message 72 Hours After Recognition/Detection

PROFORMA Datalinks : No
EEI : C

EEI Classification : SECRET//NOFORN

Originator EEI Classification : SECRET//NOFORN

EEI Title : (S//NF) Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) Strategic Election Plans

Question(s) :
1. (S/NF) Report any discussions by UMP members or leadership on perceived vulnerabilities to
maintaining power after the 2012 Presidential election, to include:
A. (S/NF) Discussions to address the perceived vulnerabilities, or efforts to develop or change the
party's ideological mission.
B. (S/NF) Any discussions regarding Nicolas Sarkozy's support for UMP and the value he places on
the continuation of the party's dominance.
C. (S/NF) Any schisms or alliances that develop among the elite in the UMP, and the reasons for
such events.
D. (S/NF) Report UMP leadership and member opinions of President Sarkozy, to include:
E. (S/NF) Private reactions to Sarkozy's political initiatives and campaign strategy.

SIGINT sub-discipline(s) : COMINT

The following table is classified: SECRET//NOFORN

Topic/Geopolitical/Priority
SIGIN
Topic Ba MB Geopolitical National Contribu T
Citation Topic
ID nd B Area Priority tion Priori
ty
DEPS/Democratizatio
9C2011- DEPS.
n and Political A DIP France X Key 9
572-01 Z
Stability

Reporting Criteria :
Report Type Delivery Mechanism Reporting Timeline
EGRAM Electrical Message 72 Hours After Recognition/Detection

PROFORMA Datalinks : No
Validation Type: FNV

Last Status Change Levy Date Levied Version


2011/11/17 13:22Z 2011/11/17 13:22Z 1

Author

CIA/CIA

@cia.ic.gov

Commercial: 703--

Secure : 933-

Validation Chain
INMG Primary Lead Alternate Lead Editor
CIA/CSAA

Sponsor CIA/CIA/CSAA CIA/CSAA

CIA @cia. @cia.


ic.gov ic.gov

Commercial: 571- Commercial:


-
Secure : 937-
Secure : 935-
NSIAPS Chair

SIRVES Chair SIGCOM/NSIAPS NSA/NSIAPS

NSIAPS
@nsa @nsa
.ic.gov .ic.gov

Commercial: 202- Commercial:


-
Secure : 561-
Secure : 561-

C.S.M. Point of Contact

NSA/S1111

@nsa.ic.gov
Commercial: 240--

Secure : 966-