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Policy & Populism: Trump Card or Wild Card for Precious Metals?
The start of the year has quickly brought geopolitical and policy volatility into investors focus. Changing US trade and immigration policies
under the new Trump administration has stirred uncertainty across global financial and currency markets this month. Indices tracking US
economic policy uncertainty have been steadily on the rise since last summers Brexit vote but have seen a dramatic uptick in January. This
trend, however, extends to not only the US but also to Europe. Growing populist sentiment paired with upcoming elections in France,
Germany, and the Netherlands and the United Kingdoms continued move to exiting the European Union have added to the volatility.
Looking ahead, this backdrop will likely persist as further changes to US trade agreements, regulation, and fiscal policy are anticipated
under the Trump administration. With little clarification or economic scope of such policies, the impact likely will continue to be disruptive
to financial markets. Precious metals, which tend to exhibit a positive correlation with market and policy uncertainty, have thus far
benefited by increased investor demand in January (see Table 1). Against an environment of policy unpredictability, we see the risk
management benefits of precious metals to help dampen volatility and hedge against tail risk within portfolios. Additionally, some policies
may be inherently inflationary and a shift from monetary to fiscal stimulus may be a boon for those industrial-precious metals.
1
For month ending January 31st, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Gold: +5.1% (January), +5.1% (QTD), +5.1% (YTD)
Investment Outlook Gold price, daily moving average (dma), and volume
Volume (rhs) Gold Price (lhs) 50 dma (lhs) 200 dma (lhs)
Gold rose 5.1% in January to $1210.7/ounce (oz). In our 2017 $1,400 $120,000
base case outlook, gold may rise to $1300/oz in the first half of $1,350
$100,000
Jun-16
Dec-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Sep-16
In a bearish scenario, the Fed will move more aggressively,
Feb-16
Oct-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
seeing the USD appreciate and bursting the bond market bubble
and pushing gold near the $1100/oz level. Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 02/01/16 to 01/31/17.
2011
2010
2012
2013
2016
2017
2014
2015
2009
2008
Pr ice ($/ounce)
Rates: Real interest rates dipped in January against rising $1,250
US Dollar Index
102
inflation and broadly flat US rates as the US 10yr Treasury yield 100 $1,200
98 $1,150
closed out the month where it began at 2.45%.
96
$1,100
94
USD: The dollar fell 2.6% in January as investors juggled policy 92 $1,050
volatility from the incoming Trump administration, likelihood 90 $1,000
of Fed actions matching statements, rising inflation, and lower
Feb-16
Apr-16
Nov-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Jan-17
Oct-16
Mar-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
May-16
impact from the removal of high denomination currency bills. 60% 1 1 .9%
7 .8% 7 .7 % 8.6% 8.9%
6.5%
Supply: Mine production is expected to see a slight increase of 50%
40%
0.3% in 2016 according to Metals Focus while beginning a
30%
period of peak output in 2017 as miners continue to cut capital 50.2% 55.4% 55.5% 54.4% 54.8%
20%
expenditures and mine developments. Recycling saw a rise
10%
among emerging markets in response to higher gold prices. 0%
2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F
Source: Metals Focus, ETF Securities. Chart data as of 1 2/01/16
2
For month ending January 31st, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Silver: +10.3% (January), +10.3% (QTD), +10.3% (YTD)
Investment Outlook Silver price, daily moving average (dma), and volume
Volume (rhs) Silver Price (lhs) 50 dma (lhs) 200 dma (lhs)
Silver rebounded in January (+10.3%) to $17.6/ounce $22 $20,000
Jun-16
Dec-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Oct-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
slowing mine production due to reduced capital expenditures
may continue to be a tailwind for silver.
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 02/01/16 to 01/31/17.
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
2010
2015
2009
2008
70
Industrial Cycle: US industrial activity rose to 56 in January
up from 54.7 in December (as measured by the manufacturing 60
24.6% 25.0%
silver prices likely weighed on physical demand which 60% 21 .4% 23.4% 23.9%
typically remains price elastic. 50%
4.3% 4.2% 3.9%
3.9% 3.7 %
40%
Supply: According to Metals Focus, supply from mine 30%
production is expected to fall 0.7% in 2016 after over 10 years 20% 43.5% 44.7 % 43.2% 47 .9% 49.2%
of increased output. They estimate silver mine supply will 10%
continue to fall in 2017 by 0.6% due to cuts in by product 0%
2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F
output from gold and base metal mining operations.
Source: Metals Focus, ETF Securities. Chart data as of 1 2/23/16
3
For month ending January 31st, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results
Platinum: +10.1% (January), +10.1% (QTD), +10.1% (YTD)
Investment Outlook Platinum price, daily moving average (dma), and volume
Volume (rhs) Platinum Price (lhs) 50 dma (lhs) 200 dma (lhs)
Platinum quietly jumped 10.1% in January to $995/ounce $1,200 $2,500
lasting discount to gold for only the 4th time since 1976. $900
$500
Expected continued supply deficits in 2017 should support $850
prices, but remain tied to demand from key markets for $800 $-
diesel engines and jewelry globally.
Dec-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Oct-16
May-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 02/01/16 to 01/31/17.
2010
2011
2012
2014
2015
2016
2013
2017
2008
2009
22,688 contracts in January. This was driven primarily by a
57% drop in short positions with a 24% increase in longs. Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 12/31/07 to 01/31/17.
1450
0.1% to 10.9% in December year over year as further signs of 0.05 750
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Apr-16
Apr-15
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jul-16
Jul-15
4
For month ending January 31st, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Palladium: +10.8% (January), +10.8% (QTD), +10.8% (YTD)
Investment Outlook Palladium price, daily moving average (dma), and volume
Volume (rhs) Palladium Price (lhs) 50 dma (lhs) 200 dma (lhs)
$311 million in January, well above the $232 million the $550
$400
month prior. $500
$200
Given palladiums demand is most sensitive to the industrial $450
Jun-16
Dec-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
Nov-16
Feb-16
Oct-16
May-16
Aug-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
infrastructure spending and recovery in global growth.
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 02/01/16 to 01/31/17.
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2012
2010
2008
2009
19% helping spur volatility this month.
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 12/31/07 to 01/31/17.
Global Auto Sales: Chinese auto sales continued to rise in China Auto Sales Euro Auto Sales 750
2.5
December (up 9.4% year over year) driven by attractive 700
dealer incentives and tax breaks. In the US, auto sales fell
A uto Sales, millions of units
650
2.0
from 1.67 million in December to 1.13 million in January
Pr ice, US$/ounce
600
2017, driven by softer seasonal demand and inventory glut. 1.5 550
500
Market Balance: Expected continued supply deficits, 1.0
450
growing demand, and drawdowns in above ground stocks
400
have kept the market balance for palladium favorable. 0.5
350
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2013
2012
2011
2014
2015
2016
5
For month ending January 31st, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Important Risks
The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are as of the date of this report. All information is historical and not indicative of
future results and subject to change. Reader should not assume that an investment in any securities and/or precious metals mentioned was or would
be profitable in the future. This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The ETFS Silver Trust, ETFS Gold Trust, ETFS Platinum Trust, ETFS Palladium Trust and ETFS Precious Metals Basket Trust are
not investment companies registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 or a commodity pool for purposes of the
Commodity Exchange Act. Shares of the Trusts are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds. These
investments are not suitable for all investors. Trusts focusing on a single commodity generally experience greater volatility.
Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. Trusts focusing on a single commodity generally experience
greater volatility. Please refer to the prospectus for complete information regarding all risks associated with the Trusts. Shares in the Trusts are not
FDIC insured and may lose value and have no bank guarantee.
The value of the Shares relates directly to the value of the precious metal held by the Trust and fluctuations in the price could materially adversely
affect investment in the Shares. Several factors may affect the price of precious metals, including:
A change in economic conditions, such as a recession, can adversely affect the price of the precious metal held by the Trust. Some metals are
used in a wide range of industrial applications, and an economic downturn could have a negative impact on its demand and, consequently,
its price and the price of the Shares;
Investors expectations with respect to the rate of inflation;
Currency exchange rates;
interest rates;
Investment and trading activities of hedge funds and commodity funds; and
Global or regional political, economic or financial events and situations. Should there be an increase in the level of hedge activity of the
precious metal held by the trust or producing companies, it could cause a decline in world precious metal prices, adversely affecting the
price of the Shares. Should there be an increase in the level of hedge activity of the precious metal held by the Trusts or producing
companies, it could cause a decline in world precious metal prices, adversely affecting the price of the shares.
Also, should the speculative community take a negative view towards the precious metal held by the Trusts, it could cause a decline in prices,
negatively impacting the price of the shares. There is a risk that part or all of the Trusts physical precious metal could be lost, damaged or stolen.
Failure by the Custodian or Sub-Custodian to exercise due care in the safekeeping of the precious metal held by the Trusts could result in a loss to the
Trusts.
The Trusts will not insure its precious metals and shareholders cannot be assured that the custodian will maintain adequate insurance or any
insurance with respect to the precious metals held by the custodian on behalf of the Trust. Consequently, a loss may be suffered with respect to the
Trusts precious metal that is not covered by insurance.
Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors.
Please refer to the prospectus for complete information regarding all risks associated with the Trust.
Investors buy and sell shares on a secondary market (i.e., not directly from Trusts). Only market makers or authorized
participants may trade directly with the Trusts, typically in blocks of 50k to 100k shares.
Commodity definitions: ETFS Physical Precious Metals Basket Index reflects the daily performance of a basket with the following components and ratios: gold
(0.030oz), silver (1.100oz), platinum (0.004oz) and palladium (0.006oz). Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is a broadly diversified commodity price
index. Futures contract = agreement traded on an organized exchange to buy or sell assets at a fixed price but to be delivered and paid for later. Long position =
buying of an asset with the expectation the asset will rise in value. Short position = sale of a borrowed asset with the expectation that the asset will fall in value.
Spot price = current market price at which an asset is bought or sold for immediate payment and delivery.
Index definitions: S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks selected by the Standard & Poors Index Committee designed to represent the
performance of the leading industries in the U.S. economy. MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index is an equity index that captures large and midcap
representation across Emerging Markets countries. Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark measuring investment grade, US
dollar, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of
foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of US trade partners' currencies. The Euro/US Dollar exchange rate is the relative pricing of the euro (the
official currency of the European Union) and the US dollar. The US Dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate is the relative pricing of the yen (the official currency of
Japan) and the US dollar. The HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index is designed to be representative of the overall composition of the hedge fund universe. Year
over year = the percent change over a full calendar year. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket
of consumer goods and services; headline includes all categories while core excludes food and energy. South African Rand (ZAR) = official currency of South
Africa. Russian Ruble (RUB) = official currency of Russia. The Purchasing Manufacturing PMI Index (PMI) is an indicator of the economic health of the
manufacturing sector. Producer Price index (PPI) measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. The
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a shipping and trade index created by the London-based Baltic Exchange that measures changes in the cost to transport various raw
materials. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total value of goods produced and services provided in a country during one year.
Entity definitions: The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central banking system of the United States of America. COMEX = the primary market for trading metals
such as gold, silver, copper and aluminium. NYMEX = New York Mercantile Exchange. Brexit is an abbreviation for "British exit," which refers to the June 23,
2016, referendum whereby British citizens voted to exit the European Union. Gross.
Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. This material must be accompanied or preceded by the
prospectus. Carefully consider each Trusts investment objectives, risk factors, and fees and expenses before investing. Please
click here to view the prospectus.
ALPS Distributors, Inc. is the marketing agent for ETFS Silver Trust, ETFS Gold Trust, ETFS Platinum Trust, ETFS Palladium
Trust and ETFS Precious Metals Basket Trust.
Maxwell Gold is a registered representative of ALPS Distributors, Inc.
ETF001104 01/31/18
ETF Securities (US) LLC
405 Lexington Avenue t +1 844 ETFS BUY (844 383 7289)
New York f +1 212 918 4801
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