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Methodology
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 430
Saskatoon-Meewasin voters on February 23, 2017
through Chimera IVR. Respondents were screened
to conrm voting eligibility. Landline and Cell lines
were included. Responses were weighed using
demographic information to targets based on the
2011 Census.
The margin of error for survey results is 4.71
percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
. majority government in the 2015 federal election.
About Mainstreet
With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority
Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by
elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet Research was
the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal
Contact Information
In Ottawa: Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Montreal: David Valentin, Executive Vice
President. david@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto: Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
DEAD HEAT IN MEEWASIN

February 25, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll conducted for the Saskatoon Star
Phoenix nds a dead heat between the Saskatchewan Party and the NDP in the upcoming Saskatoon
Meewasin by election. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.71%, 19 times out of 20.

Weve seen quite the turnaround for the Saskatchewan party in this contest, said David Valentin,
Executive Vice-President of Mainstreet Research. In our last poll, we pointed out the low results for the
Saskatchewan Party where underpinned by low support among younger voters who were registering high
undecided rates. It looks like those voters have made up their minds and decided to stick with the
government they know.

At the same time there has been movement in favourability ratings for Ryan Meili and Brent Penner.
Penners favourability has increased 8 percentage points while Meilis favourability has fallen slightly. More
signicantly however, Meilis unfavourability has increased by 9 percentage points.

Clearly the local campaign that the Saskatchewan Party has been waging in Meewasin is having an eect
not just on voting preference but also on voters perceptions of the candidates.

By elections in Canada are notoriously tough to poll - particularly because low voter turnout makes
modelling outcomes very dicult. On the surface, we would say the NDP has an advantage since the
Saskatchewan Party leads among the 18-34 voting set, those who are typically the least likely to vote in
these contests. But the reality may be that this race is won or lost at the advance polls and that it will come
down to which party and candidate has the best organization.

No result here on election day would surprise me at this point. Given the margin of error and by election
turnout we will truly all have to wait until election night to see what happens, nished Valentin.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

David Valentin, Executive Vice-President, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

FIGHT TO THE FINISH IN MEEWASIN

What at once looked like an easy race for the Favourability of Brent Penner
provincial NDP has turned into a dogght. Q: Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of
Brent Penner?
Thats because low support for the Saskatchewan
Party was underpinned by high undecided rates
among voters in the 18-34 and 35-49 age
categories.

Now those voters have made up their minds and it

looks like many if not all of them have decided to
stick with the government. At the same time
support for the provincial NDP has swung down
with the previous polls margin of error.

Favourability of Ryan Meili

Q: Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
opinion of Ryan Meili?

candidate Brent Penner.

He has gone from a net favourability of +10 to a

net score of +19. Still, 50% of the riding either has
never heard of him or has no clear opinion.

His unfavourability rate is virtually unchanged from

our last poll which means either the NDP didnt
attempt to tie him to unfavourable government
decisions - or they tried and so far, it is not
registering.

Whats driving the numbers? The answers may be

in the favourability ratings for the major
candidates. Underpinning the NDPs
Meili has seen his unfavourability increase by 9 strength is high undecided
percentage points while his favourability has
decreased by 4 percentage points - in other words rates for both the 18-34
he has gone from a net score of +28
(favourable-unfavourable) to a score of +15. and 35-49 age categories
We had seen earlier in the campaign attempts to both of which registered
saddle Meili with the Federal Liberals carbon tax.
Perhaps the attack took some time to gain
low support for the
traction. Saskatchewan Party.
Its a dierent story for Saskatchewan Party - David Valentin
 Among All Voters

TURNOUT, TURNOUT, TURNOUT

By elections are notoriously hard to predict because turnout is unstable. That being said with overall
numbers so close this race could come down not just to turnout on Election Day but turnout in the
advance polls.

Its entirely possible that Penner or Meili will lose on Election Day but that they will hold a signicant
enough lead from the advance polls to still come out the overall winner.

Decided & Leaning Only