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• What is it?
o Particular outcome in political world will occur, plan changes the outcome, outcome post-plan bad
o Types of DAs
Obama good
• Congress passing x now
• Obama needs PC to push
• Plan drains PC
• Can’t pass bill
Obama bad
• Plan helps obama’s agenda
• Agenda bad = bad outcome
Agenda DA
• Plan trades-off with something inside the agenda
Elections DA
• Candidate will be elected
• Plan changes
• Not being elected bad
Backlash
• Forces outcome in short term that causes president to do something
• Plan unpopular forces president to do something to distract
• Internal response – president signing plan makes him unpopular with x group, has to do
something to gain constituency back
Diplomatic Capital
• Negotiations over plan sap diplomatic capital – state apt. can’t get things done
• Hurts ability to negotiate in other areas
o Internal link, link story
Political capital – finite measurement of pres. ability to persuade others
Clinton and CTBT – tried to pass, but couldn’t because he used up PC on other issues
Seidenfeld, Lazinski – link to every policy costs PC
Specificity of link
Concession “olive branch” (obama bad da) – plan serves as an offering to x group and thus x
group will agree with obama agenda
Internal link
• bipartisan – both parties pleased on, causes cooperative atmosphere and gets things done
(obama bad)
• partisan – plan is a wedge b/w parties, causes schism and agenda won’t be passed
Focus – similar to PC, more about time – obama needs to focus/spend time on x thing, plan
distracts
• Have to answer fiat solves the link:
o Obama has shiny object syndrome
o Repercussions of plan require obama to focus on repairing them
o Requires ev about momentum – if bill gets derailed, it goes off the tracks
Delay
• When plan passes, the aff gets delayed
• best when right before a house/senate recess, right before an election
• plan delays enough that obama can’t get it done before midterms
• people throw in the block, think about other things on president’s agenda
Flip-flop
• President has to be consistent, if pres is seen flip flopping, it will hurt his PC
• Very good with democrat scenarios – withdrawal from Afghanistan a huge flip-flop b/c
deviates from his current strat
Popularity
• If plan is popular, congress gets excited about passing things
• Winners win
Party support
• Plan allows pres to please a party that is unhappy with him
• Lefty things allow obama to get more concessions
• Happy democrats = get things done (obama’s case)
• Pleasing GOP = less chance of a filibuster
Winners Win
• Passing plan means you get capital – plan popular
• When you pass a plan, you get capital –signal obama is in control
• Ornstein
Winners Lose
• When president wins, congress resists to distance themselves
Losers Win
• Party will work harder to make sure he doesn’t lose again
Losers Lose
• When pres loses, congress resists b/c pres looks weak
Atrophy
• Obama has PC now, if he doesn’t use it he will be wasted
Senators
• Senator key to passage, plan unpopular with the senator
• Standard Format
o X thing is passing now
o Plan unpopular
o Unpop policies cost PC
o Lack of pc =/= passage
o X not passing
o Issues with this:
Policies are going to be unpopular/popular with certain people no matter what
Saying something is unpopular is too broad a statement – plan unpopular with who
• Depth /focus on which group it is unpopular with
• How to make it better
o Focus on who the plan is unpopular with
o Obama good DA
Stop thinking about whether plan is popular/ unpopular – research who it’s unpopular with
Think about which people are likely to be angry if plan passes, which ones he’ll need to spend PC
on
Which group is likely to defect
• Determine what is in the bill
• Focus on people that are on the fence – obama has to do work to persuade in favor of the
plan
GOP = party of “no”
• Vast majority of them will say no no matter what
• Links based of GOP has no unq. They will vote no anyway
Focus on small sections of moderates that could go either way
• Real ones that could change the outcome
o Obama bad DA
Come constituency needs to be persuaded to vote x way
Internal not external concession – want bill to move more to the right - good no pillover arg
Cards with “external concessions” or “horse-trading” on unrelated issue (we trade an unrelated
issue to pass Plan)
• Choosing your DA
o Assess the uniqueness – imply some level of fight (brink)
o Look at impact
Do you have cards, or time to cut them?
Don’t forget to
Possibilities for impact turns – HAVE ANSWERS
o Finding and selling the link story
Who is important for this bill
• Use specifics to dominate the link and internal link
How can we sell the story that plan is unpopular with these people
X people important for the bill – plan unpopular with these people
Tell your pltx DA like a story
• Don’t use debate jargon
• Sad time of when obama couldn’t pass x because he focused on plan
o Focus on warrants, specifics
• Research
o Google news
Google alerts
o The Hill News
o First Read – references lots of sources
o Nate Silver – fivethirtyeight.com
Unq. ev has lots of warrants, statistics
Good elections predictions
o Focus on your bill, key senators
o Mine pltx link files from camps – tell you who plan is unpopular with
• Aff
o Have to have specific link turns
o Have to win the unq. debate
o Extend n/u, compare evidence, read new n/u in 1AR
o In 1AR, if you are crushed, group unq. debate, say unq. overwhlems the link
o If you don’t have issue-specific unq
o 2AC should have analytics, pay attention to your flow
Capitalize on things they drop
o Not going to win everything
Pick and choose arguments you’re winning
1AR and 2AR need to communicate
Answer turns-case!
Case solves terminal impacts of DA
o Theory args lame – intrinsicness
o “say-no” – debate happening in congress means PC loss inevitable
Recharacterize fiat
o Have the 2N cut the cards
•
• More debating tips
o At most, sell 2 link stories for the 2NR – 1 great link story o/w 2 small ones
o Why i/l and link o/w
o Use ev that resolves aff arguments
o Compare evidence
Phrases like “insider”, “expert”, “non-partisan analysis” are great
Shift to evidence that gives a non-partisan analysis
Demonstrates that your ev is a part of the political climate
Vote count – qualified, dismisses aff ev as partisan bickering, solid view of margin needed to
pass
Momentum - evidence with predictions of future events, more examples of current events, the
better
Qualifications – pltx ev not as qualified
• Link ev needs to be questioned
• Scrutinize link-turn ev – probably unqualified or biased
Bipartisan trap
• Don’t take whole congress into account - focuses on like 3 people
Lip circles
• Unq. ev just rhetoric put out to please constituents
o No your judges
People who assess links first v. people who assess unq. first
•