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Lauri Jrvilehto
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Lauri Jrvilehto
Aalto University
Espoo
Finland
Marcus Aurelius
Preface
This book is about intuition: thinking and decision-making driven by the non-
conscious mind.
The question of intuitive thinking is ever the more pressing today, in a world that
is changing faster all the time. The ability to commit decision-making to the rapid
non-conscious mind and to differentiate between viable and non-viable intuition is
critical to functioning in todays fast-paced world.
But what is intuition? And how can we work with it? What, in other words, are
the nature and function of intuitive thought?
Research in the last few decades by, in particular, the proponents of the dual
process theories of cognition offers us a powerful, scientically credible basis to
study intuition. In the framework of the dual process theories, backed up by nd-
ings in positive psychology, evolutionary psychology, neuroscience and the
philosophy of the mind, intuition can be dened as the capacity to carry out viable
non-conscious cognitive operations within a valid domain of operations familiar to
the cognitive agent.
By understanding how this cognitive facility works, we can perform signicantly
better in situations demanding excellent decision-making and thinking skills.
Understanding intuition helps us make better decisions, solve problems, to be more
creative and even achieve the optimal state of flow more often in our everyday lives.
The purpose of this book is to construct a structured model of intuitive thought,
based both on the mainstream theorizing on intuition and dual processing, as well as
on empirical research concerning intuition and the non-conscious.
This book is positioned at the crossroads of philosophy of the mind, cognitive
psychology and positive psychology, with an emphasis on the philosophically
pressing questions of the nature of the mind and intuitive thinking. The method
employed is a combination of qualitative meta-analysis and philosophical con-
ceptual analysis.
The nature of intuition is studied rst in a historical context. Then, a model of
intuitive thought is constructed, drawing from the most prominent dual processing
theories, as well as from studying recent empirical evidence. Finally, the relevance
vii
viii Preface
This book is based on research on intuition carried out from 2011 to 2014 at the
Systems Analysis Laboratory at the Aalto University in Espoo, Finland. It has been
kindly supported nancially by the Academy of Philosophy (Filosoan Akatemia)
in Helsinki, Finland and the Arts Promotion Centre Finland as a grant towards the
writing of this book.
This work could not have come to be without the various bright minds I have
had the chance to work with through these years. I would, in particular, like to
thank Professors Esa Saarinen and Raimo P. Hmlinen from Aalto University for
their support as well as several inspiring discussions. I would like to thank
everybody at the Academy of Philosophy, in particular Frank Martela, Karoliina
Jarenko, Tapani Riekki, Timo Tiuraniemi and Markus Neuvonen.
I am deeply indebted to those brilliant thinkers who have had the chance to
review and comment on my work in various stages as a manuscript. Thank you,
Professor Esa Saarinen, Emilia Lahti, Corinna Peifer, Tapani Riekki, Henrik
Rydenfelt, Sami Paavola, Timo Tiuraniemi, Peter Kentt, Asta Raami and Frank
Martela. Thanks to your comments, this book is far better than it could ever have
been by my working on it alone. As always, any mistakes committed in the text are
solely my own responsibility.
Lastly, I would like to thank my parents Timo and Rauni, my sisters and
brothers, Kirsi, Paula, Liisa, Paavo, Eemu, Aki and Petri and my family: my wife
Laura and my wonderful children Silja, Luukas, Joonatan and Tuomas. Thank you
for reminding me everyday about what makes researching and understanding the
world worthwhile at the end of the day!
ix
Contents
xi
xii Contents
3 Using Intuition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
3.1 Intuition and Flow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
3.1.1 The Definition of Flow. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
3.1.2 Intuition and Flow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
3.2 Intuition and Creativity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
3.2.1 Defining Creativity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
3.2.2 The Dynamics of Creativity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
3.2.3 The Role of Intuition in Creativity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
3.3 Intuitive Decision Making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
3.3.1 The Phenomenology of Intuition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
3.3.2 Heuristics and Biases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
3.3.3 Heuristic Intuitions and Expert Intuitions . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
3.3.4 Valid Environments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
3.3.5 Using Intuition in Decision-Making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
4 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
Chapter 1
Background for Intuition Research
Abstract Throughout the history of thinking intuition, and more generally, the
non-conscious mind, has piqued the interests of philosophers and scientists alike. In
the 20th century research of the non-conscious gradually picked up speed, to
culminate in the present day theories of dual processing. Historically, two different
views towards intuition gathered support. Intuition as immediate apprehension or
knowledge was a notion supported by many philosophers. The more modern type
of intuition as immediate insight was present already in the works of the American
pragmatists. Non-conscious cognition has been particularly difcult to study, and
here recent advances in neuroimaging have produced promising avenues of inquiry
to study the differences between conscious and non-conscious cognition. While
establishing connections between brain activity and cognitive processing is any-
thing but easy, neuroscience can inform us a great deal about the nature of non-
conscious thought and intuition.
Peirce and James. While the two ways to approach intuition seem at the rst glance
incompatible, they may be reconciled as different aspects of non-conscious thought.
Work involving the study of the nature of the mind would not be very credible
without taking into account up to date neuroscientic research. Non-conscious
cognition has been particularly difcult to study, and here recent advances in
neuroimaging have produced promising avenues of inquiry to study the differences
between conscious and non-conscious cognition. While establishing connections
between brain activity and cognitive processing is anything but easy, neuroscience
can inform us a great deal about the nature of non-conscious thought and intuition.
Ancient Greeks were keen on denitions. One of the more important concepts to
dene was human. What are we exactly? What are the necessary and sufcient
conditions for something to be human?
Plato proposed that while humans were one of the rare bipedal animals, there
were, also, various bipedal birds. But all of them had feathers. Therefore, a suf-
ciently precise denition of human would be featherless biped.
That is, until Diogenes the Cynic turned up at Platos Academy, plucked a
chicken clean and exclaimed: Here is Platos Man! (Laertius 1925, p. 43).
This sent the Greek philosophers scrambling for a new answer. The suggested
revision, featherless biped with broad nails, did not really take off. The denition
that eventually ended up directing centuries of philosophical discourse was the one
often attributed to Platos student Aristotle: a human being is a rational animal.
It is a deeply ingrained belief in our culture that rationality is the dening feature of
being human. This is reflected in the latin genus of humanity: homo sapiens. We are
not the upright, bipedal, featherless, or tool using human. We are the wise human.
Our cognitive capacity is what sets us apart from the rest of the animal kingdom.
This assumption permeates our entire culture, from judicial practices to politics,
from everyday arguments to economics. Mainstream economics caricatures human
beings as what the Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman calls Econs. Kahneman
characterizes the assumed rational human as follows: First, people are generally
rational, and their thinking is normally sound. Second, emotions such as fear,
affection and hatred explain most of the occasions on which people depart from
rationality (Kahneman 2011, p. 8).
Keith Stanovich elaborates the great rationality debate by three positions: the
Panglossians, the Meliorists and the Apologists. The Panglossians, like their
namesake from Voltaires classic, stick to their guns with the rationality
1.1 A Brief History of Intuition 3
assumption. They argue that when people perform irrationally, the cause is not
irrational thought, but rather a performance error or something else independent of
cognition. The Meliorists, gearing towards growth and improvement, assume that
human cognition is, at least in part, irrational, but that it can also be improved. The
Apologists assume that human cognition is irrational, period. The debate rages on.
(Stanovich 2004, p. 154 ff.)
In the light of recent research, it is more and more clear that the assumption of
inherent human rationality is untenable. While rationality is, indeed, typical only to
humans and perhaps a few higher primates, it appears that the structure of human
cognition is in fact quite diverse.
In addition to rationality, at least in its traditional sense of analytic and logical
thought, we appear to possess a cognitive capacity that is quite opposite to it. One
that we surprisingly seem to share with many of the other animals. A capacity
whose foundation lies not in the conscious and clear rational mind, but the murky
depths of non-consciousness. Insofar as much of human cognition is dictated by
non-conscious processes, this gives rise to the hypothesis that we may in fact not
have just one mind, but two: the conscious and the non-conscious mind.
This poses problems to many of the ideas that are taken as given in our society.
Owing to the prominence of the rationality hypothesis, the role of the non-conscious
in thinking, decision-making and drawing inference has often been ignored in
Western philosophy and science. In the recent decades this has, however, changed.
Non-conscious thinking and intuition have risen as viable contenders in research
involving areas such as cognition, creativity and decision-making.
While non-conscious and intuitive thought have not been a prominent part of our
culture, many thinkers have time and again pondered about the nature of the ideas
that pop into our heads in the middle of the night; about the sometimes even strange
things we think without thinking.
The chariot is pulled by two horses. One is well-behaved. The other in turn has a
nasty temperament and seems to often ignore the charioteer. The charioteer has an
idea of where he would like to go. The good horse does what is asked of it. The bad
one does what it wants.
4 1 Background for Intuition Research
Isnt this a familiar situation to everyone? We know what we should do: sleep
and exercise more, eat less chocolate and more vegetables, be nice to people and so
forth. But more often than not we stay up too late watching the game, skip on the
lunch only to splurge on fries later, and snap at our spouse when we are tired and
stressed. We all know what we should do, but something keeps pulling us towards
another direction. Our thinking encounters constantly such conflicting states.
Plato divided the human mind into three parts: reason, spirit and appetite (Plato
1997b, p. 1067 ff). Platos model explains how our reason and desires often con-
flict. In particular, the opposition between reason and appetitethe good and the
bad horseexplains how we may feel one thing the right thing to do, and yet want
to do another. Appetite trumps reason. There is more to the mind than just
reasoning.
After Plato, there have been references to what can be interpreted as non-
conscious thought or mind in the works of e.g., Aristotle, Augustine, Aquinas,
Pascal, Spinoza and Leibniz. But it took until the 19th century for non-conscious
thought and non-conscious mind to surface more substantially (See e.g. Frankish and
Evans 2009, p. 3; Nicholls and Liebscher 2010, p. 4; Hintikka 1999, pp. 130131).
In the 19th century, several writers started addressing the non-conscious and
intuitive mind, especially in the German Idealist tradition. The non-conscious was
referenced, among others, by Herder, Schelling, Hegel and Schopenhauer, as well
as by non-scientic writers such as Goethe, Richter and Wordsworth (Frankish and
Evans 2009, p. 4). The rst chief theorist of the non-conscious was Eduard
Hartmann, whose Philosophy of the Unconscious (1884) became a major influence
on the German speaking public (Nicholls and Liebscher 2010, p. 1). In the book
Hartmann presented a synthesis of ideas presented by the German Idealists, arguing
that the paradox in the notion of unconscious ideas (thoughts that are not thought)
is, in fact, only apparent (Hartmann 1884, p. 2).
Before the advent of modern psychology, the non-conscious and intuition were
considered in metaphysical terms. Evans and Frankish write: The German idealists
thought of the unconscious as part of the underlying structure of reality, rather than
as a postulate of empirical psychology (Evans and Frankish 2009, p. 4). Intuition
was thought of as an immediate way of knowing, not unlike Socrates notion of
anamnesis, or learning by remembering (Dane and Pratt 2007, p. 32; Hintikka
1999, p. 131).
Even these days, a more mysterious nature of non-conscious thinking and
intuition is supported by many thinkers; the justication has only shifted from
divine influence to quantum mechanics or even extra-sensory perception (See e.g.
Bradley 2011; Radin 2011). Recent research on the non-conscious mind has,
however, shown that we do not need to posit quantum entanglement or ESP to
explain intuition. Understanding the basic building blocks of our cognition is
enough.
1.1 A Brief History of Intuition 5
While the idea of the non-conscious mind surfaced with the German Idealists, its
breakthrough moment took place in the early 20th century. The non-conscious mind
entered the mainstream of scientic discourse in the works of Sigmund Freud.
Freud rst proposed an explicit division into the conscious and the unconscious
minds. The unconscious consists of repressed impulses or memories that have been
prevented from becoming conscious. The unconscious works according to the
pleasure principle, and seeks to maximize pleasure and minimize pain (Freud
2005).
Freud later developed this account further, ending up in a tripartite division quite
similar to that of Platos. He divided the cognitive system to three faculties: the
conscious mind or ego, the supervising mind, or superego and the non-conscious
mind, or id (Freud 2014). Freud proposed that the ego is squeezed between the
directives dictated by the moral compass of the superego (compare with Platos
good horse) and the wants of the beastly id (the bad horse). The ego (the poor
charioteer) can only exert limited power over the mind.
Freud ascribed mostly negative traits to the non-conscious mind. He was brought
up in the post-enlightenment era that preferred clear rationality over the murky
faculties of intuition and emotion: the age of sense over sensibility. In Freuds
mind, discovering the secrets of the id were mainly directed towards resolving
adverse mental conditions and resolving traumas.
But the non-conscious mind is not just the seat of traumas or suppressed
memories. It is, in fact, the foundation of almost everything that makes us who we
are, and of almost everything that makes us human.
The psychologist Hermann von Helmholtz had an important role in the further
development of the understanding of the non-conscious mind. He was among the
rst to posit non-conscious inferences: mental processes underlying thought and
action (Frankish and Evans 2009, p. 5).
In philosophy, various positions started also to reflect on the consciousnon-
conscious division, such as the epistemological division between knowing that and
knowing how, or Michael Polanyis division between explicit and tacit knowledge
(Polanyi 1966).
While in a great part of the 20th century, behavioristic schools of thought in
psychology ignored non-conscious thought as unresearchable, trends had started to
pick up speed that would eventually bring the non-conscious into play as a valid
object of scientic research.
These trends would culminate by the end of the century in the new paradigm of
cognitive psychology, the dual process theories of thinking and reasoning. These
theories originated with the empirical research ndings especially by Amos Tversky
and Daniel Kahneman, as well as by Peter Wason and Jonathan Evans, among
others (Tversky and Kahneman 1974; Wason and Evans 1975; see also Frankish
and Evans 2009).
6 1 Background for Intuition Research
The dual process theories have been recently advocated most prominently by
Evans (2003, 2009, 2010), Tversky and Kahneman (1974, Kahneman and Tversky
1982, Kahneman 2011) and Stanovich (2004, 2009). Tversky and Kahneman dis-
covered that human cognition was riddled with consistent thinking errors (Tversky
and Kahneman 1974). Evans and Wason, in turn, found out that people have
surprising troubles with drawing rational inference in certain types of tasks (Wason
and Evans 1975). At the heart of these theories is the hypothesis of the existence of
two separate minds: the conscious and the non-conscious (Evans 2003).
The dual process theories form a solid basis for understanding how intuition
works. In the context of dual processing, intuition concerns processes in the non-
conscious mind that only post their end result into consciousness. This theoretical
framework will be used in the second part of the book to build a structured model of
the intuitive mind.
The Kantian notion of intuition concerns how we come to entertain certain types of
knowledge. According to Kant, we can arrive at correctly believing the truth of
some statements, while not all, simply by contemplation (Kant 1998, p. 106 ff).
Knowledge thus generated is called a priori knowledge: knowledge that comes prior
to experience (Kant 1998, p. 107). In these cases, it is the intuitive capacity of the
mind that justies such beliefs. The other type of knowledge is a posteriori,
posterior to experience. It requires also sensory perception.
Intuition is crucial to both kinds of knowledge. Kant denes intuition as follows:
In whatever way and through whatever means a cognition may relate to objects, that
through which it relates immediately to them, and at which all thought as a means is
directed as an end, is intuition. (Kant 1998, p. 155)
for me, namely extension and form. These belong to the pure intuition, which occurs a
priori, even without an actual object of the senses or sensation, as a mere form of sensibility
of the mind. (Kant 1998, p. 156)
Thus we arrive at a position where objects are never encountered as they are, but
are always interpreted through some kind of conceptual understanding. Intuitions,
in the Kantian architectonic system, reflect the mediation of both sensations (effects
of objects on perceivers) and the understanding of such sensation-independent
elements of experience as space and time. Guyer and Wood comment,
there are certain rules necessary for the disposition and order [] these rules add general
conditions to the concepts of any possible object of experience that go beyond the particular
features of such objects we may happen to observe and by means of which we may happen
to refer to them. (Guyer and Wood 1998, p. 52)
Kants position is a convoluted one and has generated a huge literature dis-
cussing how Kants conceptual denitions should be interpreted. (For an analysis of
Kants philosophy, see e.g. Allison 1983). The intricacies of Kants theorizing
cannot be addressed in the scope of the present work, but for further discussion, the
following guidelines can be drawn.
Experience is presented through sensations that produce intuitions relating to the
empirical content of the sensation. In addition, there are intuitions that concern the
pure forms of space and time.
These intuitions are then ordered through concepts that function as schematic
structures that determine our interpretation of experience. This is expressed well in
Kants snappy and oft-quoted one-liner: Thoughts without content are empty,
intuitions without concepts are blind (Kant 1998, pp. 193194).
If the intuitions are not structured via concepts, they remain a jumble. For Kant,
concepts are composites or generalizations that combine various intuitions. But
conversely, if thoughts are not fed by intuitions, they remain empty.
The Kantian notion of intuition has been further developed in more recent
literature on a priori knowledge by e.g. Bealer (1996, 1998, 1999) and Bonjour
(1985, 1998). Both argue that at the fundament of grasping a priori knowledge are
intuitive structures that inform us of the necessity and validity of such knowledge.
Both Bealer and BonJour focus on the conceptual understanding of analytic or
necessary truths, i.e. the source of a priori knowledge. Bealer calls the justication
for analytic truths intuitions or seemings (Bealer 1999). BonJour, in turn, talks
about rational insight (BonJour 1998).
1.2 The Two Intuitions 9
While the nature of generative intuition has become a relevant question for main-
stream psychology only in the last few decades, this type of cognition gured
arguably already in the works of the American pragmatists of the late 19th and early
20th centuries. In particular, notions introduced by William James and Charles S.
Peirce can be used to elucidate intuition.
Peirce introduced two concepts close to generative intuition: abduction and
musement. Abduction is a third type of inference that complements the classical
Aristotelian division to deduction and induction. In deduction, particulars are drawn
from the law. In induction, laws are drawn from the particulars. If all ducks are
birds, then Donald the duck is a birda deduction. And if all of these ducks we
have so far seen are white, then ducks are whitean induction. Peirce, however,
argued that in science what we begin with is neither a law nor a samplebut a
hypothesis.
Such hypotheses are arrived at by something that is more than guesswork. Peirce
writes in one of his manuscripts: It is evident [] that unless man had had some
inward light tending to make his guesses [] much more often true than they
would be by mere chance, the human race would long ago have been extirpated for
its utter incapacity in the struggles for existence [] (Peirce Ms. 692, here quoted
from Sebeok and Sebeok 1981).
The formation of a hypothesis for Peirce is an act of insight that comes to us
like a Flash (Peirce 1934, 5.181). Thus, in abduction, we arrive at something
similar to the more modern psychological notion of intuition as generation of new
insight and ideas.
Peirces other relevant conception, musement, means in turn a play of thought
without purpose, where associations freely come to mind. (Peirce 1909, p. 93.) Both
musement and abduction involve tapping into cognitive resources that we cannot
control at will but that function better than pure chance or guesswork.
The concept of habit can be used to explain this ability to discovery and gen-
erative insight. Both Peirce and James drew from the work of Charles Darwin.
Darwin describes habits as follows:
How unconsciously many habitual actions are performed, indeed not rarely in direct
opposition to our conscious will! Yet they may be modied by the will or reason. Habits
easily become associated with other habits, and with certain periods of time and states of
the body. When once acquired, they often remain constant throughout life. (Darwin 1998,
p. 160.)
Unlike a mechanism, a habit is not identied by its structure, but rather by the
results that it would produce, given the right kinds of circumstances:
the identity of a habit depends on how it might lead us to act, not merely under such
circumstances as are likely to arise, but under such as might possibly occur, no matter how
improbable they may be. What the habit is depends on when and how it causes us to act.
(Peirce 1934, 5.400.)
The idea of the non-conscious is also present in William James work. James
argued that much of thinking happens beyond volitional control, and that even
conscious thought consists of a stream of thought that we cannot quite control at
will (James 2007, p. 224 ff).
James, developed the notion of habit further in his magnum opus, Principles of
Psychology:
When we look at living creatures from an outward point of view, one of the rst things that
strike us is that they are bundles of habits. In wild animals, the usual round of daily
behavior seems a necessity implanted at birth; in animals domesticated, and especially in
man, it seems, to a great extent, to be the result of education. The habits to which there is an
innate tendency are called instincts; some of those due to education would by most persons
be called acts of reason. It thus appears that habit covers a very large part of life, and that
one engaged in studying the objective manifestations of mind is bound at the very outset to
dene clearly just what its limits are. (James 2007, p. 104.)
Habits are acquired or innate routines that produce a predictable result. They are
often confused with less dynamic processes such as mechanisms or routines.
Habits, however, are not deterministic, owing to their dynamic goal- or result-
oriented nature.
Habits are plastic. They possess a structure weak enough to yield to an influ-
ence, but strong enough not to yield all at once. (James 2007, p. 105.) A mech-
anism works always the same way, no matter what the context or situation. For a
habit, the ways to reach a given result may vary a great deal, but with sufcient
practice, we can acquire habits that generate desirable results.
James draws a comparison between magnetism (a mechanism) to the desire of
Romeo and Juliet to embrace one another (a habit):
Romeo wants Juliet as the lings want the magnet; and if no obstacles intervene he moves
towards her by as straight a line as they. But Romeo and Juliet, if a wall be built between
them, do not remain idiotically pressing their faces against its opposite sides like the magnet
and the lings with the card. Romeo soon nds a circuitous way, by scaling the wall or
otherwise, of touching Juliets lips directly. With the lings the path is xed; whether it
12 1 Background for Intuition Research
reaches the end depends on accidents. With the lover it is the end which is xed, the path
may be modied indenitely. (James 2007, p. 7.)
James position lays the groundwork for the later development of research on
generative intuition. In particular, he argues that habits enable us to free up con-
scious resources by automatizing activities: habit diminishes the conscious
attention with which our actions are performed (James 2007, p. 114.).
We cannot just decide which habits we have; generating new habits or removing
old ones takes a lot of work. But the reward for this work is great: the automaticity
of such habits of action that help us generate benecial results in our everyday lives.
Habits are the driver of the capacity to pick up the correct clues for abductive
reasoning, as well as for the practice of musement. It is the experience and the
habits thereby generated for the reasoner that enable her to pick up hypotheses more
reliably than guesswork. Habits are the basis for generating intuitive insight.
1.2 The Two Intuitions 13
The Harvard professor C.I. Lewis did not have a technical notion of intuition like
Kant or Bealer. However, Lewis innovative account of a priori knowledge can
shed light on why some a priori knowledge just seems to us to be true (and why
some does not), and how our cognitive apparatus is built to be able to generate both
apprehensive intuitions and generative intuitions. Lewis position also offers us an
interesting view that could be developed to bridge the philosophical and the psy-
chological, or the metaphysical and cognitive, notions of intuition presented above.
According to Lewis, empirical knowledge consists of three elements: the given
or immediate data of sense, the concept, and the act which interprets the one by
means of the other (Lewis 1926, p. 240). The given roughly coincides with the
Kantian notion of empirical intuition. Concepts reflect, in turn, what we ourselves
bring to interpret experience, somewhat similarly to Kant. Lewis notion of con-
cepts combines, in other words, Kantian concepts and his notion of pure intuition.
While Lewis agrees with Kant that we cannot experience directly what is, the
given nonetheless reflects existing objects. He argues, Subtract, in what we say
that we see, or hear, or otherwise learn from direct experience, all that conceivably
could be mistaken; the remainder is the given content of the experience inducing
this belief (Lewis 1946, pp. 182183). Concepts, in turn, direct our attention in
experience, guiding us to pay attention more to some features in it at the expense of
others. (Lewis 1929, p. 14; Rosenthal 1976, p. 21; Jrvilehto 2011, p. 95.) Similarly
to Kant, the object of experience is the sensation mediated through the conceptual
apparatus.
Interestingly, while the given element in experience is roughly similar to Kants
idea of empirical intuitions in that it is that part of experience that we make sense
out of within our conceptual framework, the notion of concepts as dened by Lewis
falls closer to the psychological ideas about intuition.
Lewis proposes two ways to analyze concepts and produce a priori knowledge.
Concepts can be analyzed conventionally in terms of their linguistic meaning. For
example, the concept of human could be analyzed classically as rational animal.
But they can also be broken down on a more operative level in terms of their sense
meaning. (Lewis 1946, pp. 3738). In other words, concepts can be analyzed in
terms of the kinds of activities they entail.
Sense meaning is an analysis of a concept in terms of which we can explicate
which situations the concept is applicable, and which it is not. For example, the
concept paper contains as sense meaning the process if I were to grab it in my
hand and crumple it, it would not offer great resistance (Jrvilehto 2011, p. 72).
Such processes are, according to Lewis, employed in interrogating the given
experience and making sense of it. They can be analyzed to be series of counter-
factual statements of the form S being given, if I were to do A, E would ensue.
Sense meanings are not conscious rules or protocols that we employ in using
concepts. (Jrvilehto 2011, p. 69 ff.) Lewis is not arguing that our minds are loaded
with series of counterfactual statements or inferences. Rather, sense meanings
14 1 Background for Intuition Research
(the series of counterfactuals) are the result of analyzing concepts in terms of their
applicability to experience. In such an analysis, the practices that guide our inter-
pretation of experience are rendered explicit.
Lewis argues that a sense meaning when precise and explicit, is a schema; a
rule or prescribed routine and an imagined result of it which will determine
applicability of the expression in question (Lewis 1946, p. 134). A sense meaning
is an anticipatory schema that helps us determine which object is which in terms of
the concepts we have adopted. (Jrvilehto 2011, p. 70.)
Sandra Rosenthal links Lewis notion further with the notion of habit by drawing
a distinction between implicit and explicit sense meanings:
An implicit sense meaning is a disposition or habit by which humans interact with the
environment. In contrast, an explicit sense meaning is a schema or criterion in the mind by
which one grasps the presence of something to which a particular type of response is
required in order to obtain the desired result. (Rosenthal 2004, p. 230.)
There has been quite a bit of research about the participation of various brain areas
in intuitive and non-conscious thought (See e.g. Dietrich 2004; Goel 2007;
Lieberman 2000, 2007, 2009; De Neys and Goel 2011). Unfortunately, discussion
of non-conscious thought and the brain is also riddled with many common
misconceptions.
One of the most persistent of these is the idea in popular literature that intuitive
and analytic capacities would be located on the right and left brain hemispheres,
respectively. This is, however, a major error in the light of present day research.
There are some cognitive processes whose neural correlates are unilateral, i.e.
located only on one hemisphere. Perhaps the most prominent example of
16 1 Background for Intuition Research
unilaterality are the Broca and Wernicke areas dealing with functions associated
with language comprehension that typically reside in the left hemisphere.
Nonetheless, many if not most cognitive processes cause activations all over the
brain. Also, many cognitive processes are represented bilaterally, i.e. they take
place on both the brain hemispheres simultaneously, for example aural and visual
processing.
Even in scientic literature, it is often argued that a rough guideline to the neural
correlates of conscious and non-conscious thought is that the former coincides with
activity in the prefrontal cortex, and the latter with activity elsewhere in the brain,
with an emphasis on the limbic system.
Such an account is also an oversimplication. Jonathan Evans notes that there is
no clear-cut correspondence from one study to the next, apart from the fact that
multiple brain areas are implicated (Evans 2009, p. 38). Daniel Kahneman, in turn,
points out, the conscious and non-conscious minds do not have specic brain areas
that correlate systematically with them. (Kahneman 2011, p. 29.) Instead, corre-
lation with both types of cognition can be established with various different brain
areas.
Neuroscience can inform research into the non-conscious and intuition a great deal.
While there are the above caveats to keep in mind, as well as the fact that present
day neuroimaging tools are still relatively crude, establishing associations between
brain activations and cognitive processes can help us understand better the nature of
and relationship between the conscious and the non-conscious mind.
Arne Dietrich argues that the brain operates two distinct information processing
systems to acquire, memorize and represent knowledge (Dietrich 2004, p. 749.) He
calls these systems the explicit and the implicit system:
The explicit system is rule-based, its content can be expressed by verbal communication,
and it is tied to conscious awareness. In contrast, the implicit system is skill or experience-
based, its content is not verbalizable and can only be conveyed through task performance,
and it is inaccessible to conscious awareness []. (Dietrich 2004, p. 749.)
This distinction is typical to the dual process theories of cognition that argue that
the mind is divided into two separate systems (Evans 2003; Stanovich 2004).
Matthew Lieberman, a social neuroscientist operating in the context of the dual
process theories, makes the distinction into two kinds of cognitive facilities,
reflective and reflexive social cognition (Lieberman 2007, p. 276). He also speaks of
controlled and automatic cognition (Lieberman 2007, p. 279). Dietrich, in turn,
mentions other similar distinctions, such as conscious versus unconscious, declar-
ative versus non-declarative, voluntary versus automatic, or deliberate versus
1.3 Intuition and the Brain 17
spontaneous (Dietrich 2004, p. 749). These divisions coincide roughly with the
notions of rational and intuitive thought explored above.
There are several known consistent associations for both controlled and auto-
matic forms of cognition (Lieberman 2007, p. 276). Controlled cognition is asso-
ciated with brain areas such as the lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC), lateral parietal
cortex (LPAC), medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) and the medial temporal lobe
(MTL). In other words, controlled, reflective or analytic cognition is associated with
areas in the prefrontal cortex and elsewhere on the neocortex. These ndings are
corroborated by much of the neuroscientic research literature on e.g. decision-
making. (Evans and Stanovich 2013, p. 233.)
In addition, the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) is often implicated in
tasks requiring such cognitive functions as working memory and attention.
(Dietrich 2004, p. 748.) The anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) is, in turn, indicated in
conflict detection and contributing to belief-based responses with reasoning (Evans
and Stanovich 2013, p. 233). All these various areas participate in processes that
can be characterized as conscious, controlled and explicit.
Automatic forms of cognition are, in turn, associated with activations in the
amygdala (A), the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) and the lateral temporal
cortex (LTC) (Lieberman 2007, p. 276). Also, the basal ganglia (BC) has been
implicated, especially in the context of implicit, or procedural memory that takes
care of autonomous motor and cognitive skills (Dietrich 2004, p. 752).
In the light of the present-day neuroscientic research, the distinction between
the prefrontal correlations of the reflective system and the correlation between the
non-reflective system and other neocortical areas, including the limbic system,
seems roughly accurate. However, both types of cognition involve various other
areas in the brain as well, not to speak of the fact that all in all it seems like the brain
processes information far more holistically than was classically thought. (See e.g.
Just et al. 2010; Owen et al. 2006.)
This research can be used to differentiate between the two types of cognition as
well as deal with such philosophically interesting problems as the zombie
hypothesis, i.e. whether conscious reflection is needed at all. Discrepancies between
activations in the two systems seems to point towards the functional necessity of
reflection and conscious thought to certain tasks. (Lieberman 2009.)
While collecting neuroscientic evidence is an ongoing process, the up-to-date
research on the brain seems to support the existence of two differentiated cognitive
systems, one reflective and the other reflexive.
One of the most pressing arguments for the existence of non-conscious cognitive
processes, and as a corollary, intuition, concerns the limitations of the conscious
mind to process information. Present-day research implies that conscious pro-
cessing is dramatically capacity-constrained (see e.g. Buschman et al. 2011). If this
18 1 Background for Intuition Research
is the case, there must be an abundance of non-conscious systems that take care
much of our cognitive processes.
The limitations of conscious processing were identied already in the 1950s by
George Miller. In his ground-breaking paper The Magical Number 7 2 (Miller
1956), Miller showed that a person can consciously retain only about seven items of
information at a time. This nding has been corroborated several times since, and
has even been adjusted downwards. The consensus of present-day memory
researchers is that the human working memory can process three to ve units of
information at a time. (Dietrich 2004, p. 752.)
There have been also various positions where more accurate gures of conscious
and non-conscious processing have been sought for. While the assumption that we
can measure human processing with such constructs as bits is difcult to evaluate,
such abstractions do help us understand the limitations of cognitive processing
better.
The Claremont professor Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, known for his theory of
flow, argues that we can manage very little information at any given time
(Csikszentmihalyi 1990, p. 29). Based on the works by e.g. Simon (1978) and
Kahneman (1973), Csikszentmihalyi argues that it is possible to process at most
126 bits of information per second. (Csikszentmihalyi 1990, p. 29). Djiksterhuis,
Aarts and Smith place the scope of human conscious processing at around 3050
bits per second (Djiksterhuis et al. 2006, p. 82.).
Zimmermann (1989), in turn, holds that while the human conscious system can
process only about 40 bits per second, the capacity of the non-conscious system is
in an order of its own. Zimmermann presents an interesting argument based on
information theory, where the nervous system is abstracted as an information-
carrying system. (Zimmermann 1989, p. 166.)
Zimmermann calculates the channel capacities of the receptors in sense organs
from the total number of afferent nerve bers and the channel capacity of each ber.
He ends up arguing that the non-conscious information processing capacity of the
human afferent nervous system is an impressive 11.2 million bits per second, out of
which 10 million bits are dedicated to visual processing and the rest to the other
senses. (Zimmermann 1989, p. 172.) It is no wonder, then, that Zimmermann ends
up arguing, What we perceive at any moment, therefore, is limited to an extremely
small compartment in the stream of information about our surroundings flowing in
from the sense organs (Zimmermann 1989, p. 172).
Keith Stanovich points out, in the vein of William James, that human beings are
cognitive misers: humans will nd any way they can to ease the cognitive load and
process less information (Stanovich 2009, p. 69). The rst rule of the cognitive
miser is to default to autonomous processing whenever possible (Stanovich 2009,
p. 69). However, defaulting to the autonomous system is not always possible, in
particular when the existing non-conscious habits cannot deal with the available
situation. In other words, when the reflexive, non-conscious system cannot handle a
situation, the reflective, conscious system is needed.
The discrepancy between the processing capacity of the conscious and the non-
conscious systems seems to be quite large. Mere capacity cannot, however, account
1.3 Intuition and the Brain 19
for the viability of intuitions generated by the non-conscious mind. The non-
conscious system must also be structured so as to be likely to generate viable
insight. We should, therefore, turn to look how generating habits is represented by
the changes in the brain.
In the 1940s, Donald Hebb presented a notion that became known as Hebbian
learning (Hebb 1949). According to Hebb, repeated exercise should result in cor-
relative changes in the anatomy of the brain. The Hebbian notion, reminiscent of
James law of association, can be summed in Carla Schatzs catch-phrase: Neurons
that re together, wire together. (Doidge 2007, p. 63.)
This principle was demonstrated empirically in the Nobel-winning studies of
Eric Kandel on the aplysia snail: it was shown that by repeated stimulation of a
neuron, new synaptic connections to an adjacent neuron ring because of the other
neuron were formed (Martin et al. 1997; Kandel 2006). The neural structure of the
human brain changes with exercise end experience. The phenomenon now known
as neuroplasticity has subsequently been repeatedly corroborated in various studies.
(Gazzaniga et al. 2009, pp. 101106.)
As per the Hebbian principle, the brain creates new structures relevant for
producing viable results by repetition. In other words, habit generation correlates
with structural changes in the brain. The direct relevance of practice to acquisition
of skills has subsequently been demonstrated by studies in expertise. (See e.g.
Ericsson et al. 1993, 2007.)
Practice and experience are at the root of shaping our nervous system to learn
new skills. These skills, once developed enough, translate into autonomous habits
that do not typically require the intervention of the conscious mind. Thus the
desirable results produced by these habits become more effortless. By consciously
taking the effort to learn new skills we can create new non-conscious neural
structures that enable us to put the massive non-conscious processing capacity to
use to produce viable results.
As James noted, we are bundles of habits (James 2007, p. 104). The nature of
our habits, in turn, is determined by the neural structures created by exercise and
experience.
By practicing in a given domain sufciently long, a person can generate the
required non-conscious capacity to produce viable and desirable results without
having to think any longer about the processes that produce those results con-
sciously. In other words, by generating sufcient habitual t with a given domain or
environment, we can create autonomous systems that generate viable intuitive
insight.
In effect, the phenomenon is no different from learning to walk. Following
practicing the act of walking, the child learns to move her legs automatically while
coordinating the complex movements required to maintain balance.
20 1 Background for Intuition Research
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Chapter 2
The Nature of Intuitive Thought
Keywords Dual process theories Jonathan Evans Keith Stanovich Daniel
Kahneman System 1 System 2 John Bargh Ap Djiksterhuis Gerd Gigerenzer
Gary Klein
While it may appear at rst glance that we are conscious of much of our actions and
thought, this is not the case. In fact, a great deal of our everyday activities and
cognitive processes are non-conscious.
In the recent decades, the most prominent theoretical framework to explain this
duality of thinking concerns the dual process theories of cognition. These theories
posit the existence of two separate cognitive systems, System 1 and System 2, that
are in charge of autonomous and non-conscious cognition, and volitional and
conscious cognition, respectively.
The dual process theories form a strong basis to build a structural model of
intuitive thought. Intuition, I will argue, is a form of cognition generated by
ontogenetic System 1 processes, as differentiated from phylogenetic, or instinctive
System 1 processes. I will proceed to argue that intuition is a form of skilled action,
based on expertise generated within a domain by deliberate practice and experience.
Fig. 2.1 Dual process theories can be split into the two subgroups of dual system theories and
dual type theories
referring to the total group of theories as the dual process theories, the systemic
positions as dual system theories, and the process-focused positions as dual type
theories (Fig. 2.1).
The dual process dichotomies have been referred to in the literature by quite a
few different monikers. For example, experientialrational (Epstein 2002), auto-
maticintentional (Bargh and Chartrand 1999), reflexivereflective (Lieberman
2000, 2009) and unconsciousconscious (Djiksterhuis 2004; Djiksterhuis and
Nordgren 2006). In the majority of the dual process literature, the distinction to
System 1 and System 2, coined by Keith Stanovich and Richard West, is the most
widely used (Stanovich and West 2000).
The most common formulation of dual processing is the division of the mind into
two systems:
Dual-process theories of thinking and reasoning quite literally propose the presence of two
minds in one brain. The stream of consciousness that broadly corresponds to System 2
thinking is massively supplemented by a whole set of autonomous subsystems in System 1
that post only their nal products into consciousness and compete directly for control of our
inferences, decisions and actions. (Evans 2003, p. 458.)
instinct and emotion, takes place. It is a very powerful cognitive apparatus, able to
simultaneously process signicant amounts of information without conscious
intervention (Djiksterhuis and Nordgren 2006, pp. 9697; Kahneman 2011, p. 416).
System 1 is fast and autonomous. It is non-conscious: the processes in System 1
take place for the most part unknown to the cognitive organism. (Evans 2003,
p. 458).
System 2 is, on the other hand, evolutionally relatively recent, and typical only
to humans and perhaps some of the most advanced primates. System 2 consists of
the conscious processing capacity of the organism, and enables such things as
logical and analytic reasoning. As Evans points out, System 2 thinking is char-
acterized as slow, sequential and correlated with cognitive capacity measures,
which sounds like the stream of consciousnessor the flow of information through
working memoryand this in turn leads us to think of System 2 as conscious
(Evans 2009, p. 37).
System 2 is, however, very limited in processing capacity and also considerably
slower than System 1. Where System 1 can process several streams of information
in parallel, System 2 is mostly capable of processing only a handful of information.
System 2 processes information serially and relatively slowly (Table 2.1).
Most typically the two systems can be characterized by the rough attribution of
System 1 as the locus of non-conscious processing and System 2 as the locus of
conscious processing. As shall be seen below, this division into two completely
separate non-conscious and conscious systems is not a very viable one. However, as
a rough division it conveys some of the essential nature of human cognition.
Another critical element is the idea of the highly differentiated capacities of the
two systems. As was pointed out above (see Sect. 1.3), the human conscious
apparatus is constrained by working memory limitations, leading to the fact that the
capacity to consciously process information is very limited. (See e.g. Miller 1956;
Dietrich 2004; Lieberman 2007; Buschman et al. 2011).
Whether System 2 is equated with consciousness, working memory -driven
processes or attention, all three suffer from the same cognitive limitations that
typically manifest as the inability to focus attention: Intense focusing on a task can
make people effectively blind, even to stimuli that normally attract attention.
(Kahneman 2011, p. 23.) This phenomenon was stunningly demonstrated in an
experiment by Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons, where they asked students
to count basketball throws. Meanwhile, a person in a gorilla suit entered the court,
but only a fraction of the participants noticed this quite signicant anomaly in the
game. (Chabris and Simons 2010.)
While the conscious capacity of the human mind is highly limited, System 1
does not seem to suffer from such limitations, as the Nobel Laureate Daniel
Kahneman argues (Kahneman 2011, p. 416). It looks like we have a huge amount
of non-conscious processing taking place every moment, taking care of the
autonomous functions in our bodies, parsing sensory information for potential
threats and interests and allegedly also creating new associations presented as the
a-ha! moments typical to creativity.
The two systems can also be differentiated in terms of whether the processes they
carry out are explicit or implicit. System 1 involves implicit processing, that is to
say, processes that create a cognitive input only of their end result. An example of
such a process would be creative rumination, or Peircean musement, leading to an
a-ha! moment. In such rumination, the processes and associations that create the
nal moment of clarity are left unseen.
Finally, a typical differentiation of the two systems concerns the role of volition
in guiding cognitive processes (Stanovich 2009; Baumeister and Tierney 2011;
Kahneman 2011). System 1, owing in part to the non-conscious and implicit nature
of its processes, concerns mostly involuntary processes. This is best exemplied by
instinctive reactions such as reacting in disgust to a scary animal like a snake.
System 2, in part, concerns the ability to guide and direct cognitive processes. It is
important to note that for most dual process researchers, System 2 does not mean a
cognitive system completely under our volition; but rather it is where volition can
be applied.
Roy Baumeister has in his willpower research introduced the concept of ego
depletion (Baumeister et al. 1998; Baumeister and Tierney 2011). Baumeister
argues that with demanding tasks, the capacity to volitional activity decreases.
Kahneman, in turn, points out that both self-control and cognitive effort are types of
work that tax the cognitive system. (Kahneman 2011, p. 41.) As research by e.g.
Harriet and Walter Mischel shows, when people are presented with a demanding
task together with a temptation such as a sweet, they are more likely to succumb to
the temptation. (Mischel and Mischel 1983.)
While there are such caveats to the twin nature of the mind, many argue that the
arrangement between the two systems is, in fact, quite optimal. As Kahneman
notes, Constantly questioning our own thinking would be impossibly tedious, and
System 2 is much too slow and inefcient to serve as a substitute for System 1 in
making routine decisions (Kahneman 2011, p. 28). He also points out,
The division of labor between System 1 and System 2 is highly efcient: it minimizes effort
and optimizes performance. The arrangement works well most of the time because System
1 is generally very good at what it does: its models of familiar situations are accurate, its
28 2 The Nature of Intuitive Thought
short-term predictions are usually accurate as well, and its initial reactions to challenges are
swift and generally appropriate. (Kahneman 2011, p. 25).
There is a large amount of compelling evidence that points towards the existence
of two separate cognitive systems. System 1 is evolutionally old, parallel pro-
cessing, non-conscious, high-capacity, implicit and autonomous. System 2 is
evolutionally new, serial processing, conscious, low-capacity, explicit and voli-
tional. Many researchers, however, hold that the dual system view is too simplistic.
Evans has proposed moving from the position of two systems to one embracing
two types of cognitive processes. According to Evans, these two types roughly
coincide with what was originally thought of as the functions of the two systems.
(Evans 2009, p. 33.)
Type 1 processes are dened as autonomous processes that do not require
working memory. Type 2 processes are dened as processes involving cognitive
decoupling and mental simulation that require working memory. One way to dis-
tinguish the two is to call them intuitive processes and analytic processes,
respectively (Table 2.2).
The easiest way to differentiate the dual type and dual system formulations is
that in the former the typically mind-related properties of the two systems are
2.1 Dual Processing 29
excluded from the identication criteria of the two types of processes. This includes
the evolutive distinction, the human/animal distinction and the relationship of
emotions to the two systems.
One of the critical distinctions of the two types of processes is whether they
employ working memory. In place of type 2 processes, we can talk of analytic
processes [that] are those which manipulate explicit representations through
working memory and exert conscious, volitional control on behavior (Evans 2009,
p. 42). While the working memory is often likened to System 2, the two are not in
fact entirely the same:
Working memory does nothing on its own. It requires, at the very least, content. And this
content is supplied by a whole host of implicit cognitive systems. For example, the contents
of our consciousness include visual and other perceptual representations of the world,
extracted meanings of linguistic discourse, episodic memories, and retrieved beliefs of
relevance to the current context, and so on. So if there is a new mind, distinct from the old,
it does not operate entirely or even mostly by type 2 processes. On the contrary, it functions
mostly by type 1 processes. (Evans 2009, p. 37).
Where Evans position shifts the focus from the modularity of the two-systems
view to a process view, Keith Stanovich has developed his position by introducing
further divisions in both Systems 1 and 2 (Stanovich 2004, 2009.)
Stanovich (2009, p. 56) argues, that it is erroneous to claim that the autonomous
System 1 consists of only one system. Rather, it is a collection of many different
kinds of subsystems that roughly coincide with the demarcation criteria of System
1. The autonomous mind contains many rules, stimulus discriminations, and
decision-making principles that have been practiced to automaticity []
(Stanovich 2009, p. 57.)
These Stanovich calls The Autonomous Set of Systems, in short, TASS:
In actuality, the term used should be plural because it refers to a set of systems in the brain
that operate autonomously in response to their own triggering stimuli, and are not under the
control of the analytic processing system. I thus have suggested the acronym TASS
(standing for The Autonomous Set of Systems) to describe what is in actuality a hetero-
geneous set. (Stanovich 2009, p. 56.)
The algorithmic mind deals with slow thinking and computation. The reflective
mind, in turn, evaluates, initiates and discontinues ongoing processes in the
autonomous or algorithmic minds: Decoupling processes enable one to distance
oneself from representations of the world so that they can be reflected upon and
potentially improved (Stanovich 2009, p. 63).
Stanovich argues that we have a divided relationship to the genetically dictated
behavioral modules. Short-leash goals are implemented by the TASS, and have a
genetic basis. These include biological instinctive behavior and reflexes. However,
following his famous catch-phrase (and book title), Robots Rebellion, the
genetic robot can also rebel against these short-leash instructions by the long-
leash capacity of the reflective and algorithmic minds. The reflective mind can set
new goals that may well be at odds with the instinctive drives of TASS. By setting
goals as reflective individuals, we can rebel against the instinctive goals we are
programmed with by evolution. (Stanovich 2004; Frankish and Evans 2009, p. 18.)
The execution of typical System 2 features, such as cognitive decoupling, or
TASS overridei.e. the event where a System 1 input is interrupted volitionally
and a new process is initiatedare, according to Stanovich, driven by the reflective
mind: TASS will implement its short-leashed goals unless overridden by the
algorithmic mechanisms implementing the long-leash goals of the analytic system.
But override itself is initiated by higher control. (Stanovich 2009, p. 57.)
Stanovich argues that the algorithmic level is subordinate to higher level goal
states and epistemic thinking dispositions. These goal states and epistemic dispo-
sitions exist at what might be termed the reflective level of processinga level
containing control states that regulate behavior at high level of generality. (Evans
and Stanovich 2013, p. 230.) While the initiation of a TASS override may be
carried out by the reflective mind, the actual substitute process, for example a
logical calculation, will take place in the algorithmic mind.
Algorithmic and reflective minds can be differentiated in measurement of indi-
vidual differences between cognitive ability and thinking dispositions. (Evans and
Stanovich 2013, p. 230). Cognitive ability concerns the capacity of the algorithmic
mind to sustain decoupled inhibitory or simulating representations and is reflected
in general intelligence. (Evans and Stanovich 2013, p. 230; Stanovich 2009, p. 62.)
Thinking dispositions, in turn reflect various higher level states of the reflective
mind, for example collecting information, evaluating points of view, or making an
analysis of the upsides and downsides of a situation before making a decision.
Stanovichs position can, thus be summarized as a tripartite division between the
autonomous, the algorithmic and the reflective mind, where the autonomous mind
consists of several System 1 subsystems and the algorithmic and reflective mind
correspond with properties of System 2, especially concerning serial processing and
conscious reflection and decision making, respectively.
To bridge Stanovichs view with that of Evans, one could roughly say that the
System 1 subsystems, or The Autonomous Set of Systems (TASS) are responsible
for Type 1 processes. The algorithmic part of System 2 is, in turn, responsible for
Type 2 processes. And nally, the reflective part of System 2 is responsible for
Type 3 processes.
32 2 The Nature of Intuitive Thought
Evans and Stanovichs theories bring a lot of dynamics to the arguably too static
Dual System model. This position can now be developed further in the context of
intuitive thought.
To recap, human cognition is divided into two functionally different mental systems
whose properties and capacities differ highly from one another. One of these,
System 1, concerns the autonomous and involuntary cognitive functions. The other,
System 2, concerns the conscious capacity to reflect, compute and volitionally
adjust behavior.
While System 2 is limited to processing only a few inputs at a time in series, it
too employs many of the processes driven by System 1. For example, in drawing
logical inference, the rules of inference must rst have been memorized, i.e.
committed to System 1, before the algorithmic System 2 inference can take place.
System 2 drives processes that employ attention and focus and that tap into
working memory, in other words, Evans Type 2 and Type 3 processes. System 1 is,
in turn, responsible for most of our behavior and actions, as well as producing
associative thought patterns. As Kahneman points out, one of the main functions of
System 2 is to monitor and control thoughts and actions suggested by System 1,
allowing some to be expressed directly in behavior and suppressing or modifying
others (Kahneman 2011, p. 43).
The two systems are not separate mechanisms, but rather interact constantly with
one another. System 1 generates both inputs and explicit processes for System 2 to
reflect on and compute with, and conversely, System 2 monitors and controls the
suggestions of System 1 within the constraints of working memory capacity and
volitional capacity.
Instead of separating them, the two systems can be construed as a nested
system (Fig. 2.2). System 2 functions as the locus of attention, constrained by
2.2 The Structure of Intuitive Thought 33
S1 S2
processes that require attention and working memory. Type 3 processes are, in turn,
the reflective selfs influence and mediation between Type 2 and Type 1 processes.
While Type 2 and Type 3 processes employ working memory and are thus driven
by System 2, both employ constantly processes generated by System 1. Thus they
also affect the ongoing Type 1 processes.
Intuition concerns the Type 1 processes that post their end result into System 2.
The massive System 1 can parse through a tremendous amount of information
without our being aware of it, reacting fast to a salient input. A typical example is the
cocktail party effect. While our consciousness interprets the dozens of conversations
going on at the party as noise, our System 1 singles out interesting inputs constantly
from the noise. And as soon as something interesting is mentioned for example,
your name your attention shifts immediately towards the interesting conversation.
The capacity alone does not, however, sufce to explain how some people can
make such great intuitive leaps of inference and innovation, whereas others do not.
To understand how intuitive thought processes are generated, we must look deeper
into the nature of System 1 processing.
The processing power of System 1 alone does not sufce to explain how we have
such a capacity as intuition. A further look at the structure of System 1 is required.
While System 1 can be studied in terms of neural correlates, this alone does not
give us deeper insight on how intuitive insight is generated. There are areas in the
brain that are indicated in intuitive decision making (Lieberman, 2000, 2009;
Dietrich 2004; Goel 2007; De Neys and Goel 2011; see also Sect. 1.3 above). But
the question of how these neural correlations translate to intuitive thought is still
largely unknown.
In order to understand how intuitive insight is generated, we should rather look
at the origin and function of Type 1 processes that take place in the System 1. These
can be roughly divided according to their evolutionary background into phyloge-
netic and ontogenetic processes (Table 2.3).
Phylogenetic processes are non-conscious processes that are strongly heritable.
These include the functioning of the autonomous nervous system, the ght or flight
reflex and other reflexes, many emotional reactions and parental protective
behavior. Phylogenetic processes have developed through the biological evolution
of our species. They are common to every human being, most of them shared even
with the majority of higher animals. These processes have proven to function well
in ensuring the survival of our species throughout millennia.
Ontogenetic processes are acquired through experience and practice. While
phylogenetic processes drive the instinctive side of System 1 cognition, ontogenetic
processes are the driver of intuition. Intuitive thinking is, in other words, directly
linked to previous experience and expertise a nding that has been corroborated
by much of the literature on intuition. (See e.g. Klein, 1998; Gladwell 2005;
2.2 The Structure of Intuitive Thought 35
Gigerenzer 2007; Dane and Pratt 2007; Kahneman 2011; Kahneman and Klein
2009; see also Sect. 1.3 above.) As Stanovich notes, System 1 is not limited to
evolutionarily compiled knowledge, but also can access information in the System
1 generated through learning and practice (Stanovich 2009, p. 71).
Intuition is not a magical know-all facility, but rather a form of skilled action
driven by ontogenetic Type 1 processes. To this end, the nested model can now be
augmented with the division of the System 1 into two subsystems, the ontogenetic
and the phylogenetic systems that drive, correspondingly, ontogenetic and phylo-
genetic Type 1 processes (Fig. 2.3).
Intuition is about utilizing past experiences and the associative nature of the
System 1 to produce viable insight in various situations. The challenge with using
intuitions is now to tell the two types of Type 1 processes apart from one another.
The differentiation between ontogenetic and phylogenetic processes gives us tools
for such differentiation.
If a Type 1 input is recognized as a phylogenetic process, it should typically be
ignored. Phylogenetic Type 1 processes have developed through biological evo-
lution to function well in our natural environment.
ontogenetic am phylogenetic
processes S2 rm processes
S1
36 2 The Nature of Intuitive Thought
In the recent decades, a substantial amount of research has been gathered that points
towards a large portion of advanced cognition occurring autonomously (See e.g.
Bargh et al. 1996; Bargh and Chartrand 1999; Jacoby et al. 1992; Draine and
Greenwald 1998; Kahneman 2011; Djiksterhuis 2004; Djiksterhuis and Meurs
2006; Djiksterhuis and Nordgren 2006). This gives rise to the question: how smart
is the non-conscious mind?
John Bargh is one of the most vocal proponents of the automaticity of cognition
(See e.g. Bargh et al. 1996; Bargh and Chartrand 1999). Bargh has become famous
for his experiments on non-conscious social priming, where given words or
impulses have triggered new kinds of behavior (Bargh et al. 1996). Perhaps the
most famous of the priming experiments is one where one group of students where
exposed to words typically associated with old age, such as Florida, wise and
lonely. (Bargh et al. 1996, p. 236.) After the test, these students walked signi-
cantly slower. The argument is that the students adjusted their behavior automati-
cally to reflect the idea of old age.
Automaticity is developed by an interplay between internal, or more local,
cognitive processes and the environment. Bargh and Chartrand go on to argue that
mental representations are, not unlike Peirces and James habits (see Sect. 1.2),
processes that, once activated, carry out their function regardless of the initial
stimulus that activates the process:
The activated mental representation is like a button being pushed; it can be pushed by ones
nger intentionally (e.g., turning on the electric coffeemaker) or accidentally (e.g., by the
cat on the countertop) or by a decision made in the past (e.g., by setting the automatic turn-
on mechanism the night before). In whatever way the start button is pushed, the mechanism
subsequently behaves in the same way. (Bargh and Chartrand 1999, p. 476.)
2.2 The Structure of Intuitive Thought 37
Bargh and Chartrand argue that such automatic processes are in our very best
interests. They liken them to mental butlers who take care of our needs without
having to be asked to do so. (Bargh and Chartrand 1999, p. 476.)
Barghs position presents a far more potent hypothesis as is entertained typically
by dual process theorists. In the dual process theories, System 1 is often considered
as a relatively straightforward mechanism, where given stimuli trigger automati-
cally predetermined processes (be they phylogenetic or ontogenetic in nature).
Bargh seems here, however, to posit that in addition to containing such automatic
processes, System 1 could be construed as capable of very complex processing.
The social psychologist Ap Djiksterhuis takes this already controversial idea one
step further. He argues that intuitive decision making is, in fact, superior to analytic
decision making, at least if the problem at hand is complex enough. (Djiksterhuis
and Nordgren 2006, p. 96.)
On the grounds of both their own empirical work on intuitive decision making,
as well as the works of Bargh and others, Djiksterhuis and Loran Nordgren have
formulated a theory of the smart unconscious, or the Unconscious Thought
Theory (Djiksterhuis and Nordgren 2006; Djiksterhuis 2004). The basic idea of the
Unconscious Thought Theory is that intuitions may, in fact, be preceded by a great
deal of non-conscious processing (Djiksterhuis and Nordgren 2006, p. 106).
Following the dual process literature, Djiksterhuis and Nordgren argue that there
are two types of thought: conscious and unconscious. Djiksterhuis and Nordgren
dene conscious thought as follows:
We dene conscious thought as object-relevant or task-relevant cognitive or affective
thought processes that occur while the object or task is the focus of ones conscious
attention. This rather complex denition simply describes what laypeople would call
thought. (Djiksterhuis and Nordgren 2006, p. 96.)
automatic processes are not. Djiksterhuis and Nordgren found out in their experi-
ments that conscious thinkers tend to think in terms of stereotypes:
Our ndings clearly demonstrated that conscious thinkers applied stereotypes more than
unconscious thinkers did. They judged the target person in a more stereotypical manner,
and their recall was biased in that they recalled more stereotype-congruent than stereotype-
incongruent behavioral descriptions. Unconscious thinkers did not demonstrate stereotyp-
ing. (Djiksterhuis and Nordgren 2006, p. 98).
The critics of the smart unconscious argue that the failures to replicate warrant
caution against drawing conclusions concerning the power of non-conscious
thought. Huizenga et al., in evaluating Djiksterhuis research, blankly state that
Based on our ndings, and those of previous studies, we conclude that
Unconscious Thought Theory does not provide an adequate description of
unconscious and conscious decision processes. (Huizenga et al. 2012, p. 340.)
Shanks et al., failed, in turn, to replicate Barghs research. They state that their
results support a view that conscious thoughts are a primary driver of behavior and
that unconscious influences have limited and narrow effects (Shanks et al. 2013,
p. 10.)
John Bargh has generated some responses to his and Djiksterhuis critics (Bargh
2011, 2012). He goes on to state that there are at least three reasons why the
criticism of the smart unconscious is either non-conclusive or outright fails.
First of all, Bargh argues that the assaults on the smart unconscious are based on
an outdated idea of the unconscious mind that equates it with the subliminal. (Bargh
2011, p. 636.) In the light of the dual process theories, the nature of the unconscious
is now understood much better than in classical psychology.
Second, after closer scrutiny, many of the failures to replicate do, according to
Bargh, produce at least equivalent results between conscious and non-conscious
thought a result that is surprising enough from the point of view of the assumption
that conscious deliberation should be clearly superior. (Bargh 2011, p. 639.)
Third, he argues that the situations where more prominent positive results are
produced are such where the decision making deals with more real-life situation,
compared to the decision theorists replications. (Bargh 2011, p. 642.) Bargh also
cites a number of quite successful replications of priming experiments. (Bargh
2012; see e.g. Hull et al. 2002; Decoster and Claypool, 2004; Cameron et al. 2012.)
In the light of the present research and the debate linked with it, the question of
the smart unconscious cannot be resolved conclusively. However, when Barghs
and Djiksterhuis and their colleagues social psychological research is seen in the
wider light of both the neuroscientic evidence for non-conscious processing as
well as some of the dual process research in the eld of cognitive psychology, it is
far too early to throw it out of court only due to a failure to replicate some of the key
experiments.
In addition, while the idea of a smart unconscious may be untenable, there is
further research that goes to show how learned non-conscious processes can pro-
duce viable cognitive inputs that register as intuitive, without the need to posit
highly complex computational or intelligent interactions within the non-conscious
mind.
While the idea of the smart unconscious warrants further study, a large amount of
research points towards the superiority of non-conscious thinking in certain kinds of
2.2 The Structure of Intuitive Thought 41
Roughly put, the processes that drive intuitive thought reside in the System 1. To a
great extent, they should also correlate with various brain functions. As was argued
in Sect. 1.3, much of neuroscientic research seems to warrant this assumption.
Thus it would seem to be the case that intuition resides in the brain.
However, intuition research also seems to point towards another important factor
to intuitive thought: domains, contexts and the environment. As Gigerenzer points
out, in order to understand behavior, one needs to look not only into the brain or
mind but also into the structure of the physical and social environment.
(Gigerenzer 2007, p. 76.)
In the last few decades, various positions taking the influence of the environment
seriously have arisen, ranging from embodied cognition in psychology to the
extended mind hypothesis in the philosophy of the mind.
The philosophers Andy Clark and David Chalmers published in 1998 an influential
paper called The Extended Mind (Clark and Chalmers 1998). In the paper, Clark
and Chalmers argue that cognition can sometimes extend beyond the head. If an
object, such as a notebook, can take a part of a process that would otherwise be
considered cognitive, such as recollection, the notebook should be considered a part
of the cognitive process just as we would consider a typical brain area, such as the
hippocampus, a part of it.
Clark and Chalmers present a thought experiment concerning two people, Otto
and Inga. Ingas memory works normally. Otto, however, suffers from the
Alzheimers, and cannot memorize new information. To overcome this handicap,
Otto carries everywhere a notebook where he keeps important information. (Clark
and Chalmers 1998.)
Now say Otto and Inga want to visit the museum on the 53rd street. For Inga, the
matter is straightforward. She will simply consult her memory and nd the proper
way to get there. Otto, however, has no memory about a museum on the 53rd street.
He can nonetheless look it up on the notebook. Both Otto and Inga arrive at the
museum, safe and sound, despite the fact that for Inga, the memory was based on
46 2 The Nature of Intuitive Thought
her nervous system, and for Otto on his notebook. The question arises, shouldnt we
now consider the notebook a part of Ottos cognition?
In the introduction to Clarks book Supersizing the mind (2011), Chalmers
writes,
A month ago, I bought an iPhone. The iPhone has already taken over some of the central
functions of my brain. It has replaced part of my memory, storing phone numbers and
addresses that I once would have taxed my brain with. It harbors my desires: I call up a
memo with the names of my favorite dishes when I need to order at a local restaurant. I use
it to calculate, when I need to gure out bills and tips. It is a tremendous resource in an
argument, with Google ever present to help settle disputes. I make plans with it, using its
calendar to help determine what I can and cant do in the coming months. I even daydream
on the iPhone, idly calling up words and images when my concentration slips. (Chalmers
2011, p. 1.)
Clark argues that the material vehicles of cognition can spread out across brain,
body and certain aspects of the physical environment itself (Clark 2005, p. 1.)
Chalmers, in turn, argues that when parts of the environment are coupled to the
brain in the right way, they become parts of the mind (Chalmers 2011, p. 1.)
At the heart of the extended mind hypothesis is the parity principle: the idea that
if a process in the world works in a way that we should count as a cognitive
process if it were done in the head, then we should count it as a cognitive process all
the same (Chalmers 2011, p. 2). Thus, if a calculator helps us do mathematical
operations faster than we can do with our algorithmic mind, or if a web service can
serve inspiration faster than associations in the System 1, these things should be
considered parts of our cognitive architecture.
As Chalmers notes,
The dispositional beliefs, cognitive processes, perceptual mechanisms, and moods con-
sidered above all extend beyond the borders of consciousness, and it is plausible that it is
precisely the non-conscious part of them that is extended. I think there is no principled
reason why the physical basis of consciousness could not be extended in a similar way. It is
probably so extended in some possible worlds: one could imagine that some of the neural
correlates of consciousness are replaced by a module on ones belt, for example. (Chalmers
2011, p. 6.)
Lumping together external influences into the System 1 is not a very viable
position. A slightly more elaborate view is needed.
For a large part of the 20th century, intelligence has been likened to the capacity to
draw logical-analytic inference. It was thought for a long time that intelligence is a
mostly xed capacity that can be measured by, for example, the Stanford-Binet
intelligence quotient test. Such attitudes gave rise to the idea that the measure of
intelligence is primarily psychometric, i.e. measurable by a standardized test.
This view to intelligence has, however, been contested by many researchers. In
particular, Howard Gardners idea of multiple intelligences has given rise to a
substantial literature where the existence of other kinds of intelligences, such as
musical or kinesthetic intelligence are speculated. (Gardner 1983.)
An interesting addition to the idea of multiple intelligences is the systems
intelligence thesis developed by Esa Saarinen and Raimo P. Hmlinen. Saarinen
and Hmlinen argue:
The theory of systems intelligence claims that human beings do have intelligence with
respect to entities [] that do not functionally reduce to their individual parts, that are
dynamic and may involve emergence, non-linearity and surprising cumulative aspects.
(Saarinen and Hmlinen 2010, p. 9.)
single system, or a dyad, coupled together through the sensory coupling transmitting
expressions and emotions. The emotions shared by the mother and the infant are not
the result of sensory input-output systems, but are co-created by the two participants
in the systemic coupling.
Systems intelligence is about the ability to be sensitive to changes in social
interactions and the environment, at times without being consciously aware of such
changes. In this sense, the concept resembles the denition of intuition delineated
above. Systems intelligence is about the (mostly) non-conscious ability to produce
viable results, with the added determination that these results are produced in a
co-creative setting within systems containing a multitude of feedback loops between
various actors and objects.
At a central role to systems intelligence is the notion of engagement: the ability
to action-orientedly, adaptively, holistically and contextually link to the environ-
ment as an ongoing process. (Hmlinen and Saarinen 2008, p. vii.)
Martela and Saarinen delineate three principles of systems intelligence. First, we
must see our environment as a system we are embedded in. Second, we need to
understand that intelligent behavior cannot be traced back only to the capacities of
an individual, but arise as features of the entire system in which the individuals
operate. And lastly, intelligent behavior is always relative to a context. (Martela and
Saarinen 2008, p. 196 ff.)
Imagine a completely car-illiterate quantum physicist visiting a car shop and
participating in tuning up a sports car. She would probably not be considered very
smart in that context. Conversely, a world class car mechanic with no grasp of
mathematics beyond basic arithmetic visiting a physics lab at CERN would no
doubt receive similar consideration. And yet, in their respective domains of
expertise, both would be top performers, and considered intelligent by their peers.
Jones and Hmlinen (2013, p. 168) determine eight different traits that can be
used to evaluate systems intelligence. They are Systemic Perception, or under-
standing how we are embedded in systems; Attunement, or the capacity to connect
with others; Positive Engagement, or the quality of our interactions; Reflection, or
the ability to think about ones own thinking; Positive Attitude, or the capacity to
approach things with a positive outlook; Spirited Discovery, or the tendency and
willingness to creative engagement; Wise Action, or the ability to grasp situations;
and Effective Responsiveness, or the skill to nd the appropriate actions in a
situation.
If we accept the role of the environment in producing intuitive insight, the
borderline between systems intelligence and intuition becomes fuzzy. Systems
intelligence is about the subjects ability to act constructively and productively in a
system. Intuition is about the subjects ability to produce viable results non-con-
sciously in a domain of expertise.
The two conceptual constructs do not quite exactly coincide. For example, while
emotions and non-conscious processes gure as important to systems intelligence,
they do not function as a demarcation criteria for it as they do for intuition. But one
might argue that the capacity to intuitive thinking gures as a very important feature
of being able to act system intelligently.
2.3 Intuition and the Environment 49
Intuition can be seen as a central systems intelligent capability that we can use to
navigate complex systems. In terms of systems intelligence, Barghs priming,
Gigerenzers environment-driven heuristics and Kleins recognition-primed deci-
sion making can be construed as cognitive events where changes in the environ-
ment recongure the System 1 to function better in the changed situation. The
newly congured behavior in turn changes the environment, and thus a feedback
loop is born.
We are not cognitively isolated individuals, but rather function in complex
systems where the structure of ongoing cognitive processes changes constantly in
accord with changes in the system. This gives rise to the question of what is the
environments role in generating cognition more generally, and intuition more
specically.
As the Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon put it, Human beings, viewed as behaving
systems, are quite simple. The apparent complexity of our behavior over time is
largely a reflection of the complexity of the environment in which we nds our-
selves. (Simon 1996, p. 53.) Simon coined an apt analogy about the interactions of
the mind and the environment. According to him, the interplay between the mind
and the environment can be compared to the blades of a pair of scissors. One cannot
quite understand how scissors work by looking at just one of the blade. Likewise,
by just looking at the brain or the environment in isolation will not inform us of
how human cognition works. (Simon 1990, p. 7.)
Bargh and Chartrand argue that most of a persons everyday life is determined
not by their conscious intentions and deliberate choices but by mental processes that
are put into motion by features of the environment and that operate outside of
conscious awareness and guidance (Bargh and Chartrand 1999, p. 462). They hold
that most of our daily actions are driven by mental processes that are stimulated by
environmental features and events, not conscious choice and guidance. (Bargh and
Chartrand 1999, p. 465.)
Cognition is directly dependent on elements in the environment. In addition to
the literature on cognitive priming, the effect of the environment on cognitive
function has been demonstrated on several occasions. Carver et al. (1983) exposed
some participants in an experiment to hostility related words. The participants then
took part in a supposedly separate electroshock experiment. Those participants who
had been exposed to the hostile words gave longer shocks than the control group.
Leonard Berkowitzs electroshock experiment studied the effects of environ-
mental elements on emotions (Berkowitz and LePage 1967). In the experiments,
participants gave electroshocks in three different rooms. The rst was decorated
plainly. The second contained sports equipment. The third had a revolver and a rifle
on display. The results were similar to Carvers experiment: those participants in
the room decorated with guns gave larger shocks than the control groups. The
50 2 The Nature of Intuitive Thought
rooms decoration alone made the participants feel more aggressive. The room
changed their cognition and consequently their behavior.
Gigerenzer argues that automatic and flexible rules in dual process terminol-
ogy, Type 1 processes are adapted to our past environment (Gigerenzer 2007,
pp. 4748.) Automatic rules are such that do not require a present evaluation of its
applicability, such as many instant inferences about visual cues. This is aptly
demonstrated by the Mller-Lyer illusion, where the two arrows appear to be of
different sizes, while they in fact are not.
Flexible rules, in turn, involve an evaluation of which one to use. Gigerenzer
argues that rules of thumb are anchored not just in the brain but also in the
environment (Gigerenzer 2007, p. 49.) This is also the nding of Dane and Pratt,
who point out that intuition involves a process in which environmental stimuli are
matched with some deeply held (non-conscious) category, pattern, or feature
(Dane and Pratt 2007, p. 37.)
Environment plays also an important part in the origin of both phylogenetic and
ontogenetic processes. Phylogenetic processes have their origin in the biologically
evolved environment that our species has lived in throughout the millennia,
sculpting the phenotype.
Our phylogenetic reflexive behavior is well suited for the natural human state
and is driven by a genetic codewhat Stanovich calls short leash goals of the
genes (Stanovich 2004). However, as cultural evolution has started to distance our
daily environments from the biologically evolved ones, the plasticity of the onto-
genetic processes has taken the task to adapt our capacities to function in such an
environment. As Gigerenzer puts it, capacities of the brain are always functions of
both our genes and our learning environment (Gigerenzer 2007, p. 58.)
In taking the environment into account, Type 1 processes can be divided
according to a taxonomy where ontogenetic and phylogenetic processes can also be
extended into the environment. An extended Type 1 process is such a process or
habit of action that requires some kind of an environmental component to carry out.
Andy Clark offers an example of a phylogenetic extended process in the
swimming activity of a bluen tuna. The sh could not, of course, swim without
the water, but furthermore, the tuna employs the water in a particular way to
optimize its swimming patterns. (Clark 1999, p. 345.) Another example of a phy-
logenetic extended process can be found in the process of stigmergy employed by
ants (Heylighen and Vidal 2008, p. 593). The ants instinctively leave pheromonal
tracks in the nature that guides their activity. While individual ants are not very
intelligent, the combination of the simple insects and their environmental cues
enables them to perform quite impressive feats.
An example of an ontogenetic extended process could be writing on a word
processor or playing a song on a piano. It is relatively difcult to keep a solid train
of thought together for a very long time without using some kind of a writing
aid. And of course, playing a song without the instrument present could be quite
difcult. Even for a very experienced pianist, reproducing the nger movements of
a piece of music accurately would be hard without the instrument.
2.3 Intuition and the Environment 51
To put the role of the environment in its proper place in the generation of
intuitive thought, we can construe it as one further cognitive System, let us say,
System 3.
System 3 is responsible for generating the context for action, for the cues for
Type 1 processes and it also participates instrumentally in extended Type 1 pro-
cesses. While System 1 can be differentiated according to ontogenetic and phylo-
genetic processes, System 3 can be differentiated into the culturally evolved and the
biologically evolved environments (See Fig. 2.4.). And similarly to the other two
systems, we can to an extent affect the processes of System 3, for example by
leaving visual cues in the environment, but we cannot entirely control them.
To summarize, intuitive processes are such Type 1 processes that have been
acquired ontogenetically and vary from one individual to another. Instinctive pro-
cesses are such Type 1 processes that have been acquired phylogenetically and are
typical across the entire species. Extended processes are such Type 1 processes that
have either an ontogenetic or phylogenetic component in the structure of System 1
but that also require an environmental element to carry out.
Type 1 processes take place in the Systems 1 and 3 and only post their results
into the conscious System 2. The reflective mind of System 2 can then evaluate and
decide depending on these results, and if need be, commit the intuitive and
instinctive inputs for further scrutiny in the algorithmic System 2 mind, employing
Type 2 (algorithmic) and Type 3 (reflective) processes in so doing.
All three systems form a nested hierarchy, at the center of which is the cognitive
agent as a subject of experience. Subjective experience is determined by the locus
of attention that is the center of the attention-driving, working-memory-limited
conscious mind, or System 2. This, in turn, is fed by the various autonomous
biologic-
culturally
am ally
evolved ontogenetic phylogenetic
evolved
environ- processes S2 rm processes
environ-
ment
ment
S1
S3
52 2 The Nature of Intuitive Thought
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Chapter 3
Using Intuition
Abstract Intuition is related to the phenomenon known as flow. In both flow and
intuition, the autonomous and non-conscious System 1 and the environment work
together without the need for conscious intervention. Also, conditions for nding
flow are similar to conditions to using intuition. Intuition is also important for
creative thinking. In creative thinking, both System 1s associative nature as well as
the divergence of non-conscious thought function to generate new kinds of ideas
and to nd novel associations between old ideas. Here, too, the proper interplay
between Systems 1 and 2 is important. Finally, intuition is, perhaps most forcibly,
one of our most powerful capacities for decision-making and problem-solving, as
recent research has shown. While not every idea that pops spontaneously into our
heads is worth heeding to, by learning to identify good intuitions we can signi-
cantly boost the quality of decision-making.
Keywords Flow Creativity Decision making Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi Gary
Klein Gerd Gigerenzer Daniel Kahneman Amos Tversky Heuristics Biases
Expert decisions
every idea that pops spontaneously into our heads is worth heeding to, by learning
to identify good intuitions we can signicantly boost the quality of decision-
making.
Using intuition is not just a matter of listening to the gut feelings or going
where System 1 points us. Rather, using intuition is about learning to balance a
delicate interplay between Systems 1, 2 and 3.
The state of flow was made famous by the research of Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi
(1975, 1990; for a comprehensive review of flow research, see Nakamura and
Csikszentmihalyi 2002). Flow is characterized as the state of optimal experience. It
is the state we experience when we can do things almost automatically, getting
carried away so that even the sense of time and the sense of self evaporate. In terms
of what has been said above, flow can be characterized as the state where non-
conscious processes are carried out without obstacles or the intervention of con-
scious thinking.
3.1 Intuition and Flow 57
Balancing the tasks so that one feels a sense of control and arranging the working
environment so that one can concentrate further help towards the flow state:
Enjoyment appears at the boundary between boredom and anxiety, when the
challenges are just balanced with the persons capacity to act. (Csikszentmihalyi
1990, p. 52). The balance of skill and challenge are also relevant to System 2
capacity in two ways. In the bored state, the challenge is not sufciently demanding,
allowing the mind to wander. In the anxious state, the challenge is too demanding,
overloading working memory and causing distress. When skill and challenge are
balanced the entire capacity of System 2 can be directed to the action itself, therefore
causing an immersive feeling of being one with the action. When a challenging
enough task is met with sufcient skills, flow ensues: The best moments usually
occur when a persons body or mind is stretched to its limits in a voluntary effort to
accomplish something difcult and worthwhile (Csikszentmihalyi 1990, p. 3).
Finally, the indicators of flow show the presence of the flow state. Since flow is a
state where the reflective self is entirely involved with the activity at hand with no
room for introspection, the indicators can usually only be detected after the expe-
rience itself, or intermittently during an activity if one drops out of flow.
Interestingly enough, loss of self-consciousness does not involve a loss of self, and
certainly not a loss of consciousness, but rather, only a loss of consciousness of the
self. (Csikszentmihalyi 1990, p. 65). In the flow state, the reflective mind is
completely involved with the task at hand, with no room for introspection.
In most cases, flow requires a certain degree of skill. In a sense, conscious
thought has a kind of a problem-solving function: it is employed when ontogenetic
and phylogenetic Type 1 processes fail to produce desired results. As Kahneman
points out, most of what you (your System 2) think and do originates in your
System 1, but System 2 takes over when things get difcult, and it normally has the
last word. (Kahneman 2011, p. 25). When a sufcient level of skill is acquired,
activity can be dedicated to System 1 to proceed automatically: the complexity
and viability of acquired habits, or ontogenetic Type 1 processes, enables one to
produce the wanted results without the need for the conscious mind to intervene.
While flow typically demands relatively high skill level, an interesting variant of
flow is micro-flow: e.g. drumming the table with ngers or dgeting. These states
do not require skills at least of any considerable complexity, but they do contribute
to a state akin to flow. There are also states phenomenologically similar to flow,
such as mindfulness and awe, that indicate the fluid activity of System 1.
In flow, a persons awareness seems to meld with the doing itself. One is
immersed in the activity so that no verbal or conscious thoughts enter into ones
mind. In flow state one is, therefore, completely immersed in System 1 activity. To
this end, it is important to eliminate such distractions that may ensue either from the
environment or from System 1 itself.
As research has shown, any changes in the environment, such as demands from
other people, or the beeping of an email application, may cause new processes to
arise in System 1, causing it then to consistently cause disturbances to System 2
(Heylighen and Vidal 2008). It has been demonstrated also, in what has become
known as the Zeigarnik effect, that unnished tasks have the tendency to surface
3.1 Intuition and Flow 59
terms of survival in a natural environment. The human organism has not, however,
gone through signicant biological evolution through the last sixty thousand years
or so (Renfrew 2008). Cultural evolution has, in turn, speedily changed the envi-
ronment in which we live. Therefore, acting on instinct alone does not enable us to
reach flow state very consistently. Indeed, many reactions driven by the more
aggressive, energy-maximizing or sexual instincts tend to lead to trouble in the
modern society.
Intuition, or the ontogenically developed Type 1 processes that drive our indi-
vidual automated behavior, can, however, enable us to adapt to even such a complex
and culturally developed environment. By acting and practicing in a culturally
complex environment, we are able to acquire skills more suited to survival and
well-being in the modern society.
Learning to play the piano or to kick a football may be more fruitful skills to live
a good life in modern society, than knowing how to hit another person on the nose.
And in such a complex environment, adapted ontogenetic processesintuitionis
what can also consistently keep us in the state where we can rely on the automated
processes that drive our behavior. Such adaptation to a culturally evolved envi-
ronment can also feed our Type 1 ontogenetic processes so that we can quickly and
intuitively recognize viable ways to function in novel situations.
While intuition, as here dened, is not a necessary requirement for reaching
flow, it seems to be the best bet in terms of the everyday life of a culturally evolved
society. By acquiring sufcient skills within a domain, by eliminating conscious
distractions, by generating sufcient feedback and by balancing each task according
to the present skill level, a person may rely on her individually generated intuitive
cognitive capacityand reach the flow state consistently.
Both intuition and flow tap into the System 1 non-conscious capacity. While
flow appears to ensue from the unconstrained functionality of System 1, and the
balance between Systems 1 and 3, ontogenetic, or intuitive Type 1 processes play a
prominent role in facilitating flow in the modern society. Owing to the fact that our
environment has, through cultural evolution, changed a lot from the one to which
we are biologically accustomed to, phylogenetic, or instinctive Type 1 processes
often do not generate viable results. As Csikszentmihalyi points out,
Living exclusively by genetic and social instructions is ne as long as everything goes well.
But the moment biological or social goals are frustratedwhich in the long run is inevi-
tablea person must formulate new goals, and create a new flow activity for himself, or
else he will waste his energies in inner turmoil (Csikszentmihalyi 1990, p. 207).
Creative people know that sometimes ideas may arise from very surprising sources.
The author of the popular comic book series V for Vendetta, Alan Moore, expressed
his frustration about having to explain where his ideas come from. He himself had
no idea (Moore and Lloyd 2005, p. 268). August Kekul famously saw the answer
to his benzene molecule conundrum in a dream (Csikszentmihalyi 1996, p. 101).
Albert Einstein was momentarily stumped during a lecture and after nobody in the
audience knew the answer either, Einstein told the audience to leave some space in
their notes for the time being. Ten minutes later, in the middle of a later point,
Einstein exclaimed: Ive got it. (Isaacson 2007, pp. 159160).
In all these cases, the product of creativitythe comic, the scientic break-
through, the solution to the calculationwas produced by a typical case of System
1 use: an autonomous, non-conscious, associative process that posts its end result
into the working memory, or the System 2. Furthermore, these creative insights
were all produced by a combination of ontogenetic Type 1 processesconventions
of comic writing, of chemical sciences, or of mathematicsthat the creative
individual had acquired through experience and practice. Moore, Kekul and
Einstein were all experts in their respective elds, and could therefore commit many
of their cognitive processes to their well-trained System 1.
The processes that produce creative breakthroughs are to a great extent intuitive:
produced by ontogenetic Type 1 processes that have been acquired within a domain
of expertise. As Kahneman notes, intuition, creativity and increased reliance on
System 1 form a cluster (Kahneman 2011, p. 68). (One could also add the state of
flow into this cluster.)
Interestingly, though, there is a twist: intuitively viable Type 1 processes alone
do not sufce for creating new thingsafter all, they are about the viability of
working in a domain, and hence often based on acquired habits based on past
experience. The associative capacity of System 1 must be put to play, coupled with
processes conducive to creating new associations and breaking down acquired
habits to reach creative solutions.
Csikszentmihalyi lists likewise three key parameters to creativity: the person, the
domain and the eld. The person is the individual taking part in creative thinking.
The domain consists of a set of rules and procedures that determine acceptable
conduct. Domains include areas of life such as mathematics, physics, postmodern
literature, chess, football and so forth. And nally, there is the eld: the collection
of the individuals who determine whether a work or a solution is accepted in a
domain or not (Csikszentmihalyi 1996, p. 28).
The creative individual needs some understanding of the domain in which she
operates: [] Edisons or Einsteins discoveries would be inconceivable without
the prior knowledge, without the intellectual and social network that stimulated
their thinking, and without the social mechanisms that recognized and spread their
innovations (Csikszentmihalyi 1996, p. 7).
Furthermore, the expertise and understanding must be put to use so that the
people responsible for that domains eld can qualify the work as appropriate for
the domain:
There is no way to know whether a thought is new except with reference to some standards,
and there is no way to tell whether it is valuable until it passes social evaluation. Therefore,
creativity does not happen inside peoples heads, but in the interaction between a persons
thoughts and a sociocultural context. It is systemic rather than an individual phenomenon.
(Csikszentmihalyi 1996, p. 23.)
3.2 Intuition and Creativity 63
dynamic between divergent and convergent thinking: the capacity to move from
novelty to renement, and back to novelty again to create associative patterns that
are somehow new, viable and recognized by a eld of experts in a domain.
While at the rst glance, creativity and intuition would appear to be more or less the
same thingthe capacity to produce viable results using Type 1 processesthey
are, in fact, not. Every human being has intuitive processes driven by ontogenetic
Type 1 processes that are input into the System 2 as insights, whether they abide by
them or not. But not every human being practices creativity on an active basis. The
difference is whether we take the intuitive insight and do something new with it
within a domain.
Due to our habit driven nature many people become quite repetitive in their life
patterns, with no interest in creative thought. As Csikszentmihalyi notes, without a
good dose of curiosity, wonder, and interest in what things are like and in how they
work, it is difcult to recognize an interesting problem (Csikszentmihalyi 1996,
p. 53). The creative process starts with the acknowledgment of a puzzle or a
problem, something that needs to be done to which the existing skills are not
sufcient. While intuition and creativity do coincide, their relationship is slightly
more complicated.
Intuition works as a driver to creative thought. In other words, intuitive thought
processes and the results they post in System 2, are one of the most powerful ways
to generate new insight and to feed divergent thought. Creativity is practically
impossible by System 2 processes alone. System 2 produces results via the algo-
rithmic mind, and the algorithms are based on already existing thought processes. It
would be difcult to imagine a creative individual with no intuitive processes
whatsoever. Creativity is not fundamentally algorithmiceven if several ways of
algorithmic and rule-based thought can in fact feed creativity. For novel results, the
associative capacity of System 1 is required.
Regardless of the clich of the creative individual as constantly generating new
ideas and insight, creativity also requires focus, convergent thought and therefore
the input of the System 2 and the algorithmic mind. Also, changes in the envi-
ronment, or System 3, can fuel creativity. As Csikszentmihalyi notes, It is easier to
enhance creativity by changing conditions in the environment than by trying to
make people think more creatively (Csikszentmihalyi 1996, p. 1).
The most important criterion for creative thought is the ability to vary between
convergent and divergent thought, or System 2 and System 1 driven thought,
respectively. Djiksterhuis and Meurs discovered in their experiments that in dis-
tracting the conscious mind for a while in a creativity task produced more varied
and creative results:
66 3 Using Intuition
Throughout the experiments, the items participants listed under unconscious thought
conditions were more original. It was concluded that whereas conscious thought may be
focused and convergent, unconscious thought may be more associative and divergent
(Djiksterhuis and Meurs 2006, p. 135).
While the notion has been at times contested, there is also a growing amount of
empirical evidence in favor of incubation (Djiksterhuis and Meurs 2006, p. 136).
Incubation, like all creative thought, requires some knowledge of the eld in
question:
it is obvious that incubation cannot work for a person who has not mastered a domain or
been involved in a eld. A new solution to quantum electrodynamics doesnt occur to a
person unfamiliar with this branch of physics, no matter how long he or she sleeps
(Csikszentmihalyi 1996, p. 102).
Incubation also typically requires some period of more analytic grappling with a
problem, as Dane and Pratt point out (Dane and Pratt 2007, p. 40). Before incu-
bation, working analytically with the topic may prime relevant Type 1 processes
and enhance creativity.
Incubation takes place in the non-conscious System 1, utilizing its associative
power. It could be speculated that the insight occurs once the System 1 has pro-
duced an association that somehow ts with the existing understanding of the
domain. Insight would, from this point of view, be then a type of non-conscious
recognition, or pattern t, in a similar vein to Herbert Simons and Gary Kleins
idea of intuition as recognition. Csikszentmihalyi describes this as follows:
The insight presumably occurs when a subconscious connection between ideas ts so well
that it is forced to pop out into awareness, like a cork held underwater breaking out into the
air after it is released (Csikszentmihalyi 1996, p. 104).
In incubation, Type 1 processes are activated by the problem at hand so that new
associations can take place in the autonomous processing of the System 1. Thus,
new kinds of solutions and associations (for example, associating the Ouroboros
snakes image with the benzene molecule as with Kekul) are generated.
As the psychologist Liane Gabora points out associative (or System 1) thought is
conducive to unearthing similarity or relationships between items not previously
thought to be related (Gabora 2007, p. 10). Analytic (or System 2) thought is, on
the other hand, conducive to hammering out causal relationships between items
already thought to be related (Gabora 2007, p. 10). Analytic thought requires
3.2 Intuition and Creativity 67
How do we recognize an intuition? We all more or less know that a-ha! moment,
when somebody just gets it. But how does it actually feel? In other words, what are
the demarcation criteria for some cognitive event to qualify as intuitive?
Intuition registers as surprising, forceful conscious cognitive event or System 2
input that we typically trust. There are a three indicators that are identied as typical
to intuitions. Intuitions are considered immediate, clear and forceful. In addition to
these three typical criteria, it is possible that sensations typically associated with
flow, such as deep feeling of presence, may also be used to demarcate intuitive
inputs.
The immediacy of intuitions means the sudden appearance in consciousness of
the product of a non-conscious process, without our awareness of the process itself.
These are the snap judgments that Malcolm Gladwell describes in his bestseller
Blink (Gladwell 2005). This immediacy of intuitions is exemplied in the heuristics
and biases work of Kahneman and Tversky. They show that intuitive thought takes
place almost immediately once an appropriate stimulus has been presented
(Kahneman 2011, p. 19 ff.).
The clarity of intuitions means that there is typically no ambiguity about the
intuitions once they appear. Intuitive inputs typically appear clear and well laid out,
seemingly without contradictory elements. As Gerd Gigerenzer argues, intuition is a
judgment, that appears quickly in consciousness, whose underlying reasons we are
not fully aware of, and is strong enough to act upon (Gigerenzer 2007, p. 16).
The force of intuitions is a typical phenomenological feature of intuitions in that
as a clear and immediate cognitive event happens, without our understanding the
process that led there, we are usually very certain about it.
In addition to the three typical criteria, it seems that mood influences intuitive
thinking (Kahneman 2011, p. 69). It is possible that positive sensations typical to
the flow experience may also function as indicators of intuitive inputs. In flow, a
person feels a pleasant, balanced sensation of fluidity of action. If a System 2 input
is accompanied with such a feeling of fluidity, it could also be qualied as intuitive,
in particular insofar as it has not been preceded by previous algorithmic thought.
The problem with all that is said is that our instinctive cognitive events, or
System 2 inputs produced by phylogenetic Type 1 processes, are phenomenolog-
ically almost similar in nature. When an instinctive process takes hold, it also
appears with pressing immediacy, without carrying an algorithmic process evi-
dently with it. An instinct also feels very clear (I must have this chocolate bar!)
and is very pressing and forceful in naturethat is, until the System 2 kicks in and
contests the instinctual input.
The same holds also with negative heuristics, or cognitive biases, aka cognitive
processes that produce unwanted results, such as the tendency to orient towards
conrming existing beliefs (the conrmation bias) or the tendency to trust expla-
nations after the fact (the hindsight bias). As Kahneman points out, being condent
about an intuition is not a reliable guide to its validity (Kahneman 2011, p. 239).
3.3 Intuitive Decision Making 69
To this end, while the three identication criteria do serve us a great deal in
identifying intuitions, there remains the fact that both instincts and negative heu-
ristics share roughly the same phenomenology. To this end, just trusting our gut
is hardly a very good rule of the thumb. We rather need to employ both our System
1 and System 2 to put intuition to work.
22?
The answer appears in your conscious mind practically as soon as you lay your
eyes on the calculation. This is a Type 1 ontogenetic process posting its result
immediately into your System 2. The environmental factor (the calculation on the
page) triggers the learned process and the end result is surprisingly immediate. You
probably were not aware of the algorithm producing the answer (for example in
thinking about two oranges and two apples or something similar). The answer just
pops right into your head.
Now consider the next puzzle:
A bat and a ball cost $1.10. The bat costs $1 more than the ball. How much does the ball
cost?
Again, the ontogenetic Type 1 processes kick in and the answer is obvious: the
ball costs 10. Except that does it?
Interestingly, more than 50 % of the students at top universities such as Harvard,
MIT and Princeton gave this answer (Kahneman 2011, p. 45). And yet it is the
wrong answer. If the ball costs 10 and the bat costs 1$ more, the bat costs $1.10.
Their combined costs would be $1.20. The correct answer is that the ball costs 5
and the bat a dollar more, that is to say $1.05.
This is not a difcult problem for a top university student to solve. And yet the
majority of students failed to solve it (Kahneman 2011, pp. 4445). Their System 1
jumped to a conclusion, and System 2 failed to spot the error.
Consider next this famous problem:
Linda is thirty-one years old, single, outspoken and very bright. She majored in philosophy.
As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and
also participated in antinuclear demonstrations (Kahneman 2011, p. 156).
Which one is the more probable, that Linda is a bank teller, or that Linda is a
bank teller who is active in the feminist movement? Almost 90 % of the under-
graduates presented with this task chose the latter option (Kahneman 2011, p. 158).
Yet this is a massive logical blunder. The probability of Lindas being a feminist
bank teller is statistically signicantly smaller than the probability of her being a
70 3 Using Intuition
bank teller. This is a simple fact of class inclusion: feminist bank tellers are all a
part of the larger group of all bank tellers. This is known as the conjunction fallacy.
As Tversky and Kahneman point out, Like it or not, A cannot be less probable
than (A&B), and a belief to the contrary is fallacious (Tversky and Kahneman
1982, p. 98).
Why are we then so persuaded to believe the latter option? Even once the
statistical facts are laid bare, our minds tend to want to keep with the feminist
option. Even at the face of logic, our System 1 resists. This is because System 1
does not work by the rules of logic.
These are examples of heuristics and biases that were made famous by the
research of Tversky and Kahneman (see e.g. Tversky and Kahneman 1974;
Kahneman et al. 1982; Kahneman and Frederick 2005; Kahneman 2011). While the
System 1 has a massive capacity, it is also riddled with problems.
Heuristics are rules of thumb that System 1 uses to simplify complicated deci-
sion-making situations. The technical denition of heuristic is a simple procedure
that helps nd adequate, though often imperfect, answers to difcult questions.
(Kahneman 2011, p. 97). They are mostly based on Type 1 ontogenetic processes in
the sense that in many life situations these kinds of shortcuts have proved to work
well.
Cognitive biases are likewise System 1 shortcuts, but ones that consistently
prove to be detrimental in everyday life. These biases, while sharing the phe-
nomenology of intuitions in terms of immediacy, clarity and force, typically mis-
guide our thinking. To this end, one of the most important skills in using intuition is
to learn to recognize the most typical cognitive biases.
System 1 is prone to jumping to conclusions. As Kahneman has found in his
research, System 1 often replaces a difcult question with an easier one (Kahneman
2011, p. 97). The System 1 is prone to dealing with only the information that is
close at hand (Kahneman 2011, p. 85). And while many of the heuristics, or the
rules of thumb, of System 1 are useful, negative heuristics, or cognitive biases are
typically very detrimental (Kahneman 2011, p. 110).
There are a huge number of heuristics and biases uncovered by research in the
recent decades. Table 3.1 lists some of the most well known and typical ones. There
are no short cuts to dealing with cognitive biases. In order to differentiate intuitions
from negative heuristics, you need to be aware of the typical ways our minds can
fool us. Fortunately, by familiarizing with the common heuristics and biases, you
can protect your decision-making from the most typical System 1 blunders.
Affect heuristic means allowing emotions such as fear or pleasure to guide
decision making. The idea of affect heuristics usefulness is based on Antonio
Damasios concept of somatic markers: the recognized factors in a situation are
associated with an emotion from past experience. This guides our decision making
correctly (Damasio 2005). Unfortunately, emotional response may also be produced
directly by phylogenetic processes, in which case the algorithmic mind should be
brought to play, at least insofar as one is situated in a culturally evolved
environment.
3.3 Intuitive Decision Making 71
Base rate fallacy means ignorance of a base rate, or the statistical typicality of an
event, when the representativeness of the exemplar guides us otherwise. Consider
this example:
Michael is a slender man who wears glasses and likes to listen to Mozart. Is he more likely
to be a truck driver or an Ivy League classics professor? (Baumeister 2005, pp. 206207).
Nearly everyone thinks Michael must be a professor, ignoring the base rate that
there are millions of truck drivers in the world, and only a few Ivy League classics
professors.
Bias blind spot means that we tend to see ourselves as less biased than other
people. Conrmation bias means the tendency to seek only conrming evidence for
existing beliefs and to ignore contradictory evidence. Conjunction fallacy, exem-
plied in the Linda task, is about assuming the higher likelihood of a specic option
over a more general one.
Hindsight bias means the tendency to see choices as obvious after the fact and
ignore the role of chance and other incidental factors. As Kahneman notes, if you
follow your intuition, you will more often than not err by misclassifying a random
event as systematic. We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we
see in life is random (Kahneman 2011, p. 117).
Rolf Dobelli offered a great example of this bias on his lecture at the London
School of Economics. Imagine a million monkeys that predict the Dow Jones every
Friday. They have only two buttons to press: up and down. Every Friday, the
monkeys that predicted correctly are kept and the rest are removed from the
group. After 20 weeks, there will be one monkey left that has predicted the Dow
Jones correctly every single time. Now, biographers will want to know all about this
monkey and its history, and books will be written about the monkeys method of
predicting the Dow Jones.
Finally, stereotyping means assuming a member of a group shares features with
the entire group, without any actual knowledge of that individual. Stereotyping
functions, for example, as a driver for racism.
This is only a small sample of the most typical heuristics and biases; there are
dozens more that are well known in the literature and no doubt a tremendous
number that we do not quite know about yet. (For a review of the heuristics and
biases literature, see Kahneman 2011, p. 107 ff.)
In the light of the heuristics and biases research, it would seem at the rst glance
that the System 1 is so riddled with errors that we should keep as clear of it as
possible. However, while this research does mean we should take some caution in
listening to our intuitive insight, interestingly enough, our heuristics can, in fact,
also function in our favor.
The take home message from this research is to familiarize oneself with the most
typical thinking errors and to evaluate ones thinking accordingly when making
decisions. But if we were to abstain completely from intuitive decision-making
based on heuristics and biases research, we would throw out the baby with the
bathwater.
3.3 Intuitive Decision Making 73
It may well be that many heuristics in everyday life situations are, in fact
benecial. Identifying Linda as a feminist, buying a familiar brand, or following
emotional associations are all heuristics that may well work in our favor.
Gigerenzer maintains that Tversky and Kahneman are correct in that our minds
are not built for statistical reasoning (Gigerenzer 2007, p. 94). However, unlike
Tversky and Kahneman, Gigerenzer argues that this is a good thing: Rigid logical
norms overlook that intelligence has to operate in an uncertain world, not in the
articial certainty of a logical system, and needs to go beyond the information
given (Gigerenzer 2007, p. 94).
To this end, in an uncertain environment, not assuming regularity but rather
going with gut feeling may work better. And indeed, Gigerenzer has found out that
in very volatile environments, such as the stock market, heuristics such as famil-
iarity, recognition and take-the-best function better than statistical reasoning
(Gigerenzer 2007, p. 80).
He also argues that the famous Linda experiment is rigged from the point of
view of everyday life. We typically assume that if we are asked a question, all the
information provided is relevant for the question:
The unconscious inference is thus: if the experimenter reads to me the description of Linda,
it is most likely relevant for what he expects me to do. Yet the description would be totally
irrelevant if one understood the term probable as mathematical probability. Therefore the
relevance rule suggests that probable must mean something that makes the description
relevant, such as whether it is plausible (Gigerenzer 2007, p. 95).
Gigerenzer concludes that picking the statistically fallacious answer to the Linda
problem may, in fact, be the better answer in a complex everyday life setting:
Logic is not a sensible norm for understanding the question Which alternative is
more probable? in the Linda problem. Human intuition is much richer and can
make reasonable guesses under uncertainty. (Gigerenzer 2007, p. 96).
74 3 Using Intuition
Gigerenzer denes recognition as the ability to tell the novel from the previously
experienced, or the old from the new (Gigerenzer 2007, pp. 109110). He lines out
two factors why the recognition heuristic works: the impact of quality and the impact
of publicity. Impact of quality means that high-quality objects receive more attention
from the media and the public. The impact of publicity, in turn, means that those
that are mentioned more often are recognised better. And nally, the validity of
recognition lies in the fact that the more often recognized items are of a greater
quality (Gigerenzer 2007, p. 114).
Insofar as heuristic intuitions are concerned, gut feelings do not require a lot of
information. It sufces that some factor in the environment triggers the ontogenic
Type 1 processes responsible for the heuristic (such as the ball triggering the gaze-
following process of the catcher). As Gigerenzer notes, good intuitions in fact
ignore information. They are shortcuts, but such that have become useful in a
majority of cases in a complex environment (Gigerenzer 2007, p. 38).
However, heuristic generalizations apply only to a limited case of intuitive
decision making. For more demanding situations, what is needed is expertise.
Expertise works often better without the intervention of the conscious mind.
Indeed, conscious thought can even be detrimental to expert performance. As
Gigerenzer notes, thinking too much about skilled action can slow down and even
disrupt performance. Expert performance works best when honed to automaticity
(Gigerenzer 2007, p. 35).
Gary Klein found out that deliberation works, but typically only outside ones
eld of expertise (Klein 1998 loc 372377). Kahneman and Klein argue, based on
Kleins research on re-ground commanders, that a typical expert choice is not
based on extensive evaluation, but rather on drawing from what they already knew:
The initial hypothesis was that commanders would restrict their analysis to only a pair of
options, but that hypothesis proved to be incorrect. In fact, the commanders usually gen-
erated only a single option, and that was all they needed. They could draw on the repertoire
of patterns that they had compiled during more than a decade of both real and virtual
experience to identify a plausible option, which they considered rst (Kahneman and Klein
2009, p. 516).
Djiksterhuis found out that the quality of decision making depends on the correct
application of either conscious or non-conscious thought. Conscious thought works
better for simple problems. Non-conscious thought, in turn, for complex ones:
When people were faced with complex decisions, a few minutes of distraction during which
people could engage in unconscious thoughtbut not in conscious thoughtled to
superior decisions compared with circumstances under which people could not engage in
unconscious thought or to circumstances under which people engaged in conscious thought
(Djiksterhuis 2004, p. 596).
At the rst glance, the advocates of the heuristics and biases view originated by
Tversky and Kahneman, and the naturalistic decision making view, originated by
Gary Klein, seem to be opposed. The heuristics and biases view seems to imply that
intuitions should not be trusted. Kleins research with re-ground commanders,
nurses and military commanders seems to point the opposite way: experienced
individuals should rather trust their intuition than their rational mind.
In an interesting joint paper, Daniel Kahneman and Gary Klein address the
compatibility or lack thereof of the two views. The paper, subtitled A Failure to
Disagree, (Kahneman and Klein 2009) ends up with a conciliatory view that ts
3.3 Intuitive Decision Making 77
together both major positions. This is a view that is also supported to a great extent
by the ndings presented earlier in this book.
While expertise does, as a general rule, predict viable intuitions, this is not
always the case. In some highly volatile environments, such as the stock market or
political science, the value of expertise in intuitive thinking seems to vanish almost
entirely (Kahneman 2011). In an experiment comparing amateurs and professional
stockbrokers stock picking, the amateurs did better (Gigerenzer 2007).
This seems somewhat surprising, given that the ontogenetic Type 1 processes
the stockbrokers have developed should work just as well as those of the re-
ground commanders.
The key issue, Kahneman and Klein found out, is the validity of the environment
in which expertise is developed and deployed: reliably skilled intuitions are likely
to develop when the individual operates in a high-validity environment and has an
opportunity to learn the rules of that environment (Kahneman and Klein 2009,
p. 521). Kahneman elaborates:
The accurate intuitions that Gary Klein has described are due to highly valid cues that the
experts System 1 has learned to use, even if System 2 has not learned to name them. In
contrast, stock pickers and political scientists who make long-term forecasts operate in a
zero-validity environment. Their failures reflect the basic unpredictability of the events that
they try to forecast (Kahneman 2011, p. 240).
Where Klein had studied people working in relatively stable environments (re-
ground commanders, clinical nurses and other experts), Kahneman had researched
stock pickers and political scientists trying to make forecasts (Kahneman 2011,
p. 239). To this end, Kahneman and the heuristics and biases researchers were
rather skeptical about the viability of intuitions, whereas Klein was optimistic.
In studying the evidence, Kahneman and Klein, however, discovered that re-
ground commanders, nurses and chess Grand Masters work in environments that
are to an extent predictable. Fires proceed throughout houses usually in similar
ways. And in every chessboard conguration, there are only a limited number of
legal moves available.
Kahneman and Klein characterize a high-validity environment as follows:
We describe task environments as high-validity if there are stable relationships between
objectively identiable cues and subsequent events or between cues and the outcomes of
possible actions. Medicine and reghting are practiced in environments of fairly high
validity. In contrast, outcomes are effectively unpredictable in zero-validity environments.
To a good approximation, predictions of the future value of individual stocks and long-term
forecasts of political events are made in a zero-validity environment (Kahneman and Klein
2009, p. 524).
In the stock market, stock valuation is not determined only on the grounds of
objective fact, but also the subjective evaluations of stock pickers. This creates an
untenably complicated system of feedback loops, where regularities are difcult if
not impossible to learn.
Employing expert intuitions is possible only in domains that are predictable and
stable enough to create the kinds of ontogenetic Type 1 processes that are required
78 3 Using Intuition
to generate skilled intuitions: When evaluating expert intuition you should always
consider whether there was an adequate opportunity to learn the cues, even in a
regular environment. (Kahneman 2011, pp. 242243).
To generate expert intuitions, one must work in an environment that is regular
enough to be predictable. In addition, one must have had an opportunity to learn
from these regularities through practice and experience. But what about when the
environment is not regular enough, as is the case with the stock pickers and political
scientists?
In a non-valid environment, we should rst and foremost acknowledge the fact
that uncertainty plays a massive role in the outcome of any given decision. We
should be very aware of the hindsight bias and the million monkeys pressing a
button. It is perfectly possible that successes for example in the nancial market
happen simply because a sufcient number of people are working in a highly
volatile environment. Some are always bound to rise to the top of the heap.
But working in a non-valid environment is not just a lost cause to be
acknowledged. Here, too, we still have two strategies that might improve the
chances of making great decisions: heuristics and algorithms.
First, as Gigerenzer has pointed out, in a highly complex environment, using a
simple rule of the thumb may in fact be more fruitful than resorting to a more
complicated decision scheme. In volatile environments, the most viable options
may still push to the surface of the background noise in being picked again and
again. Thus ignoring information may enable the use of the recognition heuristic:
in an uncertain world, a complex strategy can fail exactly because it explains too
much in hindsight. Only part of the information is valuable for the future, and the
art of intuition is to focus on that part and ignore the rest (Gigerenzer 2007, p. 85).
Finally, if both expert intuitions and heuristics leave us stumped, we can still
resort to the one nal option: using the System 2, such as in sticking to the base
rate. If your intuition does not serve you, one of the best rules of thumb is to stay
close to the base rate. Unless you have a pressing reason to think otherwise, stick
with Michael being a truck driver and Linda a bank teller, period. Only if sufcient
additional information surfaces, should you then re-evaluate your judgment. Or if
you are an expert with Ivy League professors, or feminism.
There are also several decision-making algorithms that have been demonstrated
to perform better than human decision makers in certain situations. This is not a
universal nding, but as Kahneman and Klein point out, applies to low-validity
environments (Kahneman and Klein 2009, p. 523).
To sum up, in a valid environment, expertise and recent substantial experience
with a domain can fuel intuitive decision-making. In a non-valid environment,
taking into account their limitations, heuristics may function well. Finally, if neither
expert intuitions nor heuristic intuitions work, we must resort to algorithmic
decision making. Keeping this in mind, let us now turn to construct a model of
applying intuition in real life decision-making.
3.3 Intuitive Decision Making 79
As has become quite clear, just trusting our System 1 inputs, or listening to gut
feelings is hardly an appropriate guideline for efcient intuitive decision making.
The unviability of phylogenetic processes in a culturally evolved environment, the
lack of domain-relevant Type 1 processes or expertise, the abundance of cognitive
biases and the possibility of nonviable environments all draw limits to how far
intuition can go.
And yet, taking these limits into consideration, we can learn to become very
efcient intuitive decision-makers. Efcient use of intuition is, like all effective
thinking, establishing a proper division of labor between System 1 and System 2.
As Kahneman points out, we must simply learn to recognize the signs of a cog-
nitive mineeld, and turn to System 2 for reinforcement (Kahneman 2011, p. 417).
Gerd Gigerenzer presents the idea of fast and frugal decision trees (Gigerenzer
2007, p. 173). Such trees support our intuitive minds so that a big amount of
decision-relevant parameters are arranged in a hierarchy where each parameter
bifurcates into either a default fallback position, or proceeds through the tree.
Fast and frugal decision trees involve n + 1 exits or leaves, or potential end
results. Therefore, a tree of ve salient parameters would produce six potential
courses of action, which is small enough for System 2 to work with. Full decision
trees, by comparison, involve 2n leaves. For the same ve parameters a full decision
tree would produce 64 options, making the deployment of System 2 difcult if not
impossible (Gigerenzer 2007, p. 176).
Full decision trees become quickly computationally intractable when the number
of parameters grows large enough. A fast and frugal tree, on the other hand, can
manage a large number of parameters and still produce very good results. As
Gigerenzer found out in an intensive care unit setting, a fast and frugal tree out-
performed both more complex analytics as well as the intuitions of medical pro-
fessionals (Gigerenzer 2007, p. 175).
In the light of what has been said above, using intuition in decision making
could easily become an endless he saidshe said affair where the various
parameters influencing the validity of intuition (ontogeny, domain-specicity,
applicable heuristics, lack of recognized biases, validity of the environment etc.)
would get in the way of the decision-making. This would easily put us into the
situation of Buridans donkey, who died of hunger due to indecision. With all these
parameters affecting the validity of intuitions we would endlessly evaluate the Type
1 inputs, desperately trying to make sense whether to trust them or not.
And yet, the truism repeated in self help guides and anecdotes that you should
just trust your gut doesnt hold either. So what to do?
My suggestion is that we bring our all three evolved cognitive capacities
(reflective mind, algorithmic mind and intuition) maximally to play in decision
making. We should, in fact, evaluate reflectively our intuitive inputs, and insofar as
they appear as valid intuitions, trust them. In all other cases, we should use a
decision-making algorithm or another analytic System 2 tool such as a checklist, a
80 3 Using Intuition
NO
Domain Validity: NO
Is the environment that the intuition Use the algorithmic mind
concerns regular enough to allow to evaluate.
expertise?
YES
Expertise and Experience: NO
Do I have expertise or recent Use the algorithmic mind
in-depth experience to evaluate.
concerning the domain ?
YES
Known Biases: YES
Does the input represent one of the Use the algorithmic mind
to evaluate.
bias, base rate fallacy etc.)
NO
concerns the validity of the domain. The question you should pose is whether the
domain which the intuition concerns is regular enough to generate expert intuitions.
If it is not, you can still see if one of the more useful heuristics work, or you can use
an algorithm. This calls, again, for System 2-driven evaluation.
If you are dealing with an ontogenetic Type 1 process concerning a valid
domain, the next question is of your personal access to expertise in that domain.
Have you either had the chance to accumulate sufcient expertise in the domain, or
have you recently familiarized yourself with a substantial amount of data con-
cerning the domain? If you have no expertise nor recent experience, evaluate
analytically.
Finally, if you are dealing with an expertise- or experience-generated ontoge-
netic Type 1 process in a valid and familiar domain, check whether the intuition
falls under one of the most typical biases.
If this is not the case, trust the intuition.
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