Stuart Coles 10B

The 9,165th Night

Robert found himself once again at a casino. Dimly lit tables abounded, each one calling

out with the prospect of winning big. Armed with the last 500 euros from his savings account,

Robert made a beeline for the Poker table. Robert played again and again until he was down to

a hundred dollars. He moved to bet again, when a voice spoke, seemingly from everywhere at

once.

Now Robert, the voice said, are you sure thats a good idea?

When Robert began to look for the source of the voice he noticed something odd. The

casino was empty, and all the lights were off except for the one above his poker

table. He was alone. As it spoke, the voice coalesced into one singular point in

the dark. From this point, a man emerged into the light. The man seemed to have

serious dermatitis, or possibly sunburn, and his black, poorly-kempt, cat-like facial

hair was in stark contrast to his crisp red suit. Robert couldnt help but laugh at the

ridiculousness of the way this man presented himself.

Nice to see you too, Robert, the man said, obviously annoyed at Roberts insensitivity.

Im sorry, mister, but I dont know you, Robert said between chuckles.

Of course you do, my boy, try a little harder to remember, the man prodded, quickly

controlling his agitation. Robert thought long and hard about the small figure in front of him.

This man is vaguely familiar he thought. Suddenly, as if a dam in Roberts mind had broken, a

deluge of seemingly unconnected ideas made its way through his consciousness. He

remembered coconuts and ice cubes, snowflakes and their shapes, pretzels, and, for some

reason, rabbits. Lots of rabbits.

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YOURE THE NUMBER DEVIL! he exclaimed. I had convinced myself I had imagined

you. What are you doing here now?

Youve strayed, my boy, said the Number Devil, sounding somewhat disappointed.

You had such a promising future ahead of you as a number devil. Do you remember that

dinner all those years ago? The necklace, the certification? I had truly hoped you would become

a mathematician one day, but alas. Ive found you in the one place where no true number devil

has reason to go.

And what do you mean by that? Robert asked, now remembering how annoying and

preachy the number devil could be.

Well, the numbers speak for themselves here, Robert. This is a casino, and its a for-

profit enterprise. Do you really believe that theyre willing to just give money away if theyre

not going to ever make it back?

Theyll make it back off of somebody else. Robert replied, a bit arrogantly. Now, if

youll excuse me, Im going to place a bet on this next spin. I know Im going to win. Thereve

been so many losses in a row, it just has to happen!

The number devil laughed and moved to stand between Robert and the table.

Whats so funny? Robert asked, visibly irritated at the number devils interference.

Oh, my boy, dont you know how silly you sound. Thats not at all how probability

works. You and I both know that the so-called Law of Averages which you are applying here is

a fallacy!

The law of averages? Robert struggled to remember the term from when he studied

mathematics at the Realschule. The memory sat just outside his reach, buried underneath all

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the information that was more pertinent to his career as a curator for a small local history

museum.

Oh, come on boy, were long past the point of silly filler names. You know this stuff, its

just a matter of remembering it, the number devil chided. He was a bit less patient than

Robert remembered him, but perhaps thats just the nature of a devil. The so-called law of

averages says that if something hasnt happened in a while, but happens more frequently on

average, then it is more likely or even certain to occur soon. Its also a complete lie. With

random things like your poker game, winning doesnt become more likely because you lost a

lot. That doesnt make any sense.

Robert was annoyed at the number devil, because it was once again obvious that he was

right. Well, Robert asked my chances are still pretty good, arent they?

Quite the opposite, actually. I hope youve gotten over your fear of fractions, because

were about to work with a lot of them. Now, I know you like poker, but were going to work

with a much simpler game just so that you can relearn the concepts. I know its been a while.

The number devil waved his hand and the poker table was instantly replaced by a blank table of

green felt. On the table were two standard six-sided dice.

Now Robert, lets say that for every 4, 12, or 2 you roll, you win 20 euros. However, if

you dont roll one of those, you lose 5 euros. It sounds pretty good, like youre going to win big.

But youre not.

How not? There are so many ways to win 20 euros, and losing five isnt really all that

bad.

There really arent that many ways, here, look at this.

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The number devil began to draw on the table with his signature purple chalk. Soon, he

had drawn this:

This is all the ways you can roll two dice. Notice anything? Robert began to search for

patterns, as he used to do in the dreams of his youth.

Yeah theres only one way to get two, and three ways to get five, and one way to get

twelve.

How many possible rolls are there?

Theres, uh Robert paused to count. There are 36 different ways. So wait. There

are 36 possible outcomes, but only five ways to win?

Thats right, only five. This means we have a 5/36 chance of winning, or, if were going

to be mathematically proper, it would look like this. He was writing again.

() = 5/36

And it means that you have a 31/36 chance of losing, like so.

() = 31/36

Yeah, OK, Robert said. I shouldnt play dice, because Ill lose. Got it. But that doesnt

really tell me much.

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It tells you a lot, actually. Think about it. Dont you think we could use this to determine

exactly how much money you would lose? Its not difficult.

Robert thought for a moment.

Well, Im sure we could, because you dont tend to hint at things we cant do. But I

dont see how. The number devil moved as if he were going to interject, but Robert stopped

him. He wanted to solve this himself, to prove to the number devil that he still understood

numbers.

So, if you win, you get twenty euros. And you win five out of 36 times-

No! The number devil interjected. Youre likely to win five out of every 36 times. You

may never win at all! We just went over this.

OK, ok, ok, youre LIKELY to win twenty euros 5 out of every 36 times. And lose five

euros 31 out of 36 times. Robert paused, lost in thought. Suddenly, he burst back into

conversation, WAIT. 31/36 and 5/36 make one.

Haha, yes, they do. Dont you remember? One is everywhere. Everything is made up of

one.

Right, right. Everything is one. Got that. But, Im lost. I give up. How do I use this

information?

Well, you can find the average amount of money you are going to make simply by

multiplying the chance of something and its value, monetary or otherwise, together. The

number devil began to write.

5 31
20 + 5
36 36

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Obviously, nobody wants to do that kind of math, so we can just use a calculator for

that.

Robert had long ago lost his habit of bringing a calculator with him to bed, so the

number devil handed Robert a calculator from inside his jacket. Clearly, the number devil had

upgraded, because this one wasnt green and fuzzy, nor obnoxiously sized. Robert immediately

began plugging in numbers.

Its about negative 1.53. Does that mean I would lose a euro and a half every time?

Well, not quite, it means that on average youll lose 1.53. If you look at the rules of

the game, youll notice that you could never have that exact outcome, but if you kept playing

again and again, you will begin to average 1.53 in losses per play.

So I can play until the cows come home and Im all but guaranteed to lose money

overall?

Pretty much. Thats the only way casinos could afford to operate! They have to make

sure that the amount youll average is negative, because that money goes to them. That value

is called the expected value, by the way. Im sure you remember that from school.

Well, I must, because this is all a dream taking place in my mind. If I didnt remember it,

youd make up another vaguely similar term.

Thats true, thats true.

Do you have any idea how much that stuff messed me up? My teachers thought I was

crazy because I was trying to take the rutabaga of things until I was twelve.

Oh, Im sorry about that. You know I was only revealing to you things that you could

find yourself. I wasnt able to give you proper names you had never learned.

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Well, that makes sense. But how did you come up with terms that were so eerily

similar to the real things?

Listen, Robert, youre the one who dreams these are. I dont have all the answers. I do

have the answers to more dice related problems, though. Remember that layout of possible

dice tosses that I drew earlier? Well, we can use that in conjunction with something called

conditional probability to learn even more about whats going on.

The number devil continued, Imagine for a moment that this game offered a second

level, where if you got a 12 the first time you can now attempt to roll a third time to win twice

the prize as before if the new sum is 15. Obviously, were going to want to know the likelihood

of that happening. Dont you think theres likely a way to do find that out?

Well, we already went over how you only hint at things we can do, so yeah. Theres

probably a way.

The number devil looked somewhat hurt.

Theres no magic left for you, is there, Robert? This disconnected apathy must be how

you got here in the first place, he said, waving his red hands dejectedly at the grimy, beat up

casino tables. Robert continued as if he didnt hear him.

All of my math classes are starting to come back to me now. I remember multiplying

some probabilities, or something like that.

Thats exactly right. Now, we want to find the probability of winning the second round

grand prize. The number devil was writing as he spoke:

( ) = (1 ) ( 3)

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Robert was happy to see that this was relatively easy. He wiped away the number devils

placeholders and filled in some of the numbers, because he had found them previously.

( ) = 5/36 2/36

God, I still never liked fractions. Robert grumbled, as he picked up the number devils

calculator. He rewrote the figure once again.

( ) 0.0004

Wow, thats only .04 percent. Thats a really small chance!

Yes, it is. Thats how the game could afford to offer such a prize. Virtually nobody who

plays will win it. But the people who do will be very happy, and theyll want to brag.

Theyll want to brag about a dice game? Robert asked incredulously.

I didnt say anybody else would care, I said they would brag.

Fair point.

And when they brag, theyll need to be able to describe the game concisely so that they

can brag before the mundanity of their so-called accomplishments drives everyone away. To do

that, theyll need to use mathematical language.

Are you sure about that? Most people barely know how to file their taxes, much less

communicate in mathematical language.

Robert, youre talking to a red man from Number Hell that shows up in strange location

to teach you about math. Not all of these examples have to fit in perfectly with reality. Just bear

with me, ok? Anyway, lets say they wanted to write about how unlikely it was to win what they

did. They could do this in two ways, but one is clearly better. The number devil wrote two

different sets of probabilities on the table:

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(2 ) 0.9996

(2 ) 0.9996

Yeah, Robert said, 2nd Round Loss is clearly better.

Wrong, the devil replied, the one with the bar is clear, because that bar lets us

negate anything, especially things not written in words. Ive been giving these probabilities long

names for clarity, as you are just relearning this now, but I couldve said the probability of W,

and which of these is better?

The number devil wrote again.

( ) 0.9996

() 0.9996

Robert looked at the symbology.

Hrm, youre right, that is clearly superior.

And theres more! If the hypothetical winner had a snarky person in their conversation

circle, they could point out the chances of winning one or the other like this.

(2 )

And we pronounce that as if it were probability of winning the second round in union

with the probability of winning the first round, or, more simply, probability of winning the first

and second rounds. You would find it by multiplying the two probabilities together.

Isnt that how we found the probability of winning overall?

Yes, it is! And if this person wanted to say the probability of rolling a number that

would win the first round OR the second round, they can add them, and it would be written like

this.

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(2 )

How does one pronounce this one? Robert asked, one step ahead of the number

devil.

Same as before, except you say in union with or or instead of and.

Oh, thats pretty easy.

Yes it is. Now, because progression to the second round is dependent on the first

round, you can really only speak about winning the second round given that you won the first.

We write given like this.

(2 | )

Well ok. But Im not a huge fan of dice, so why does any of this matter to me?

None of this is exclusive to dice, my boy, we can also do this with cards. But it can get

more complicated.

Let me guess, more fractions?

Of course! cried the number devil triumphantly. Fractions make the world go round.

Now, he continued, when you pick a card, you have a 50% chance of it being red,

right? Thats obvious. There is, of course, a proper way to write this. The number devil wrote

again.

1
() =
2

So, does that mean theres also a fifty percent chance of getting black?

Yes it does! Youre catching on!

1
() =
2

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HEY! These probabilities add to one again!

Probabilities always add to one, Robert.

Well, I guess that makes sense

Yes, anyway, you also have a 25 percent chance of getting a card from each of the

suits.

So does that mean I can find my chances of getting any card simply by multiplying the

probabilities, like we did before with the dice?

No, Robert, not quite. Look here, if you did that then your chance of getting a black

heart is this.

1 1 1
( ) = =
2 4 8

Think about that, the Number Devil continued, do you actually have a one in eight

chance of getting a black heart?

No, youre right, black hearts dont exist. But now Im confused again. How does this all

work?

Well, my boy, I glossed over this earlier, but it is important to consider the real world

scenario when dealing with probability. Unfortunately, numbers cant always paint the full

picture here. Theres no equation that will be able to know how cards work. You have to be

able to look at the numbers and tell if they dont make sense. If there is a scenario like black

and heart, we call these things mutually exclusive. That is, you can have one or the other but

not both.

But what about things that arent mutually exclusive? Robert inquired, Can I find the

probability of a red four by adding?

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No, replied the Number Devil, think of, say, a red three. How many of those are in a

deck?

There are two, of course, a heart and a diamond.

Exactly. That means there is a two in fifty-two chance of getting that arrangement,

which is a decidedly different number than if you added the 4/52 probability of getting a three

to the 26/52 chance of pulling a red card. Is there anything you notice about those numbers,

Robert?

Immediately, Robert quipped back, Wow, yes, they all have a 52.

The number devil was not amused. Listen, Im not here for you to waste my time, boy.

Im here because you cant control your spending in a casino. Now shut up with your wisecracks

and learn a thing or two.

Robert knew by now to behave himself after one of the number devils outbursts. He

thought about the numbers he was given for a moment, and came up with something.

Can I see your pen?

But of course, the devil replied curtly.

Robert took the number devils magic pen and began to write.

26 4 2
( 3) = =
52 52 52

The number devils anger visibly melted as Robert made progress.

Ah, I see youve noticed the pattern! Yes! Two probabilities that overlap, such as red

hearts, can be multiplied to find the chance of both of them happening together! And now that

you know some of this we can look at a real world scenario with cards, so that you can see why

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all this gambling is bad for you, Robert. Lets find out how likely it is for you to get a royal flush

in poker.

With that, a deck of cards appeared on the table. It was shuffling

itself, and dealt Robert his two cards, an ace and queen of clubs.

Now, thats a good start, the number devil continued, lets

find out how likely it was for you to get the first two of the five that you need.

I remember this from school, Robert chimed in, its this.

Robert wrote.

5 5 1
( ) = =
52 52 2704

No, said the number devil, that would be correct if you placed the first card back in

the deck after you drew, but you did not. So the second card actually has a 4/51 chance of

being drawn, like this.

5 4 20
( ) = =
52 51 2652

So, Robert, he continued, can you tell me the probability of being dealt the next card

that you need?

Of course, it is 3/50, Robert responded immediately, quickly catching onto the

pattern, and you would have to multiply that in, right?

Thats right, and I will just fill in the rest, said the number devil, as he pushed aside the

previous math to write in the new equation.

5 4 3 2 1 120
( ) = = = 0.00000385
52 51 50 49 48 311875200

Robert stared at the result for a moment.

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Thats a small number.

Yes, Robert, it is. Do you notice anything special about how we got there?

Actually, I do! Those are factorials, or what you would call the vroom numbers. Do you

know how silly I felt when I proudly announced to the class in sixth year that I already knew

about vroom numbers? They all looked at me like I was crazy! I had never heard the term

factorial in my life! Thanks for that.

Oh, dear me, I apologized once already, you need not bring it back up, the number

devil replied, I couldnt teach you any technical terms you didnt already know. After all, Im

only a figment of your brains unconscious hallucinations. I dont know anything you dont know

or cant figure out.

Robert was suddenly uncomfortable. The number devil had never before directly

acknowledged that he didnt really exist, but he seemed comfortable with being made-up.

Robert didnt know how to continue that topic without possibly having his entire concept of

reality implode, so he moved back to math.

It looks like you took the number of cards, factorial, and the total number of cards in

the deck factorial. But you only took the first few terms in that first factorial.

Perfect, said the number devil, Lets say that the number of cards in the hand is n,

and the number of cards in the deck is d. That means that the chance of getting a royal flush, or

any other unique grouping of any number of things, for that matter, is the number devil

trailed off while he was writing

!
( ) =
!/( )!

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Oh! I get it! Robert exclaimed, the d minus n factorial part is how you eliminated all

of the unnecessary numbers! Thats cool!

Yes, its quite a handy little trick! And its not even that difficult. No moreso than the

handshake math we did all those years ago. And whats interesting is that now you can do at

least most of the rest of the calculations for the likelihood of winning poker by yourself, if you

were so inclined. There are quite a few of them, so I dont have time to do them with you.

As the number devil spoke, the lights above the casino table faded to darkness, and

Robert gave himself up to the warm feeling a restful, worriless sleep unlike any that he had

known since childhood.

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Image sources (This isnt MLA, but plagiarism is bad, so):

Dice Diagram: (http://www.bkgm.com/articles/GOL/Jul99/hank2x.htm)

Playing Cards: http://www.clipartbest.com/cliparts/RTA/6aM/RTA6aMeqc.png

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