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Steve Jennings
Oxfam GB
27 May 2011
www.oxfam.org.uk
Contents
1. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 5
4. Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 19
Annex 6: Summary statistics and data sources for the independent variables
used in the structural model ....................................................................................... 27
Notes ................................................................................................................................ 29
Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................... 32
Note: Other weather-related events are wildfires, extreme temperatures, and wet mass
movements; geophysical events include earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and dry mass
movements. Source: CRED (2011).
There are three main factors that can, individually or in combination, explain this
increase:
1. Increase in hazards:1 anthropogenic climate change could have led to more intense
and/or more frequent disasters over time;
2. Increased exposure: if more people are exposed to hazards due to increasing
vulnerability or population growth then disasters will become more frequent over
time. Note that a hazard only becomes a disaster when it coincides with vulnerable
people;
3. Changes in reporting: the data is for reported disasters, and so advances in
information technology, increased awareness, and higher levels of press freedom in
some countries mean that the number of countries covered by the EM-DAT database
has increased over time. For the same reasons, it is also likely that the proportion of
disasters reported in each country has risen.
250
200
150
100
50
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
The shorter time period of the sample1990 data means that the increase in the second type
of reporting bias (increased proportion of disasters reported over time) is likely to be
smaller than in the longer period (sample1980). Note, though, that that the shorter period
gives less certainty in the nature of the trend.
When analysed separately by region, there is a highly statistically significant upwards
trend for all disaster types in all three regions, for both sample1980 and sample1990
(Annex 4). When different types of disaster are analysed, there is an upward trend in
floods and storms in all regions and for both samples (with the exception of storms in
Asia in sample1990). There is little evidence of an increasing number of droughts.
Extreme temperature events show a positive trend only in Asia and the Americas and
only in the sample from 1980. This shows that the positive trend in reported natural
disasters is driven largely by an increasing number of floods.
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
3.1.3 Summary
In summary, attempts to control the different drivers of the trends in the reported
number of disasters indicate that:
1. Assuming that any reporting bias for geophysical hazards is the same as for weather-
related hazards, there is an upwards trend in disasters caused by increasing hazards
and/or increasing exposure;
2. Assuming that population change is a reasonable measure for exposure, there is an
upwards trend in disasters caused by increasing hazards and/or reporting bias;
3. Assuming that major disasters suffer from no reporting bias, and that changes in
exposure and the number of hazards are the same for smaller disasters as for major
ones, then part but not all of the increase in reported disasters is driven by changes in
reporting over time.
East Asia and Pacific (EAP) 9.4 11.4 13.9 16.2 18.0
Europe and Central Asia (ECA) 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2
Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5
Number Number
Country of events Share Country of events Share
Composition of Sample1990
Number
of Number
Country events Share Country of events Share