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Sonata Software
BUY
INDUSTRY IT Platform-led growth
CMP (as on 10 Feb 2017) Rs 197 We met Sonata Softwares (SSOFs) CFO Prasanna positive in 3QFY17 and scaling of IP-driven
Target Price Rs 244 Oke for a business update and came away enthused revenues provides further cushion for margins.
about FY18-19 growth prospects. Management is
Nifty 8,794 Domestic Product & Services (DPS), which is a low-
confident of driving growth in the International IT
Sensex 28,334 margin business (64% of revenue mix and 23% of
services (IITS) business (36% of revenues, 77% of EBITDA) can continue to grow at 15-18% owing to
KEY STOCK DATA EBITDA) with diversified IP-led offerings (~40% of
entrenched relationships with IBM and Microsoft
Bloomberg/Reuters SSOF IN IITS revenue) and continued traction in Infra
(18 and 24 years), and high demand for cloud
services (IMS). Digital (31% of rev) growth will be
No. of Shares (mn) 105 products. These provide synergies to the IMS
fuelled by a focus on the IP platform, while IMS will
MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 21/310 business. There is scope for a 100-150bps margin
continue to be a major beneficiary of higher cloud
expansion with a focus on higher margin products
6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 69 adoption. IMS has grown at 14% CQGR for the and services (license management).
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) trailing eight quarters (19% of IITS revenue vs. 8% in
1QFY15). Valuation & Outlook
52 Week high / low Rs 225 / 126
Providing business solutions wrapped with IP has
We expect consolidated revenue/PAT to grow at a
3M 6M 12M CAGR of 19/12% for FY16-19E. We like Sonatas
Absolute (%) 24.9 30.0 26.6 been a major differentiator for SSOF. This becomes
scalable IP-focused business model, quality balance
Relative (%) 21.9 28.0 7.3 more relevant when the traditional IT services sheet (Net cash of Rs 19/share, 10% of Mcap), high
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
business model is being disrupted by new-age RoE (~30%), high dividend yield (~5%) and reasonable
SMAC/digital technologies. We believe IITS growth valuations. Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 244 based
Promoters 30.95 will be powered by IP-led offerings such as Brick & on 12x Dec-18 EPS.
FIs & Local MFs 1.69 Click (Microsoft AX-based platform for Retail),
FPIs 13.34 RETINA (Retail analytics), Rezopia (Cloud-based Financial Summary
Public & Others 54.02
SaaS platform for Travel) and Halosys (Vertical YE Mar (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
agnostic Enterprise Mobility Platform). Meanwhile, Net Sales 16,821 19,405 24,166 28,228 32,606
Source : BSE
OPD (~30% of IITS rev) is facing headwinds because EBITDA 1,676 1,919 2,011 2,382 2,834
Amit Chandra of scaling down of legacy spends by clients. APAT 1,337 1,586 1,624 1,892 2,217
amit.chandra@hdfcsec.com We expect IITS US$ revenue to grow at a CAGR of Diluted EPS (Rs) 12.7 15.1 15.4 18.0 21.1
+91-22-6171-7345 P/E (x) 15.5 13.1 12.7 10.9 9.3
14% for FY16-19E, while margins will be in the 22-
24% range (considerably ahead of peers), as EV / EBITDA (x) 11.2 9.2 8.7 7.2 5.8
Apurva Prasad
Apurva.prasad@hdfcsec.com investments in the sales engine are almost RoE (%) 33.3 35.3 32.7 33.7 34.3
+91-22-6171-7327 complete. The IBIS acquisition has turned EBITDA Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters
SONATA SOFTWARE: COMPANY UPDATE
Key takeaways
IBIS, which is an advanced supply chain management Growth in IITS business will be led by Retail & Travel
platform based on Microsofts AX platform, has a while OPD/ISV has stabilised. Three customers were
current annual run rate of US$ 6-7mn. IBIS has added in the quarter, two in US and one in Europe.
IPs and Platforms will lead stabilised and will contribute to growth and EBITDA in
FY18E. Halosys mobility platform has received US patent for
IITS growth
innovation in rule-based notification services. The
Microsofts AX-based Brick & Click platform and technology allows users to be notified across web,
RETINA are seeing traction among retailers; deal size SMS, email, in-app push notifications, based on a pre-
is in the range of ~US$1.5-3mn. configured set of rules. It can be easily embedded in
enterprise systems like ERP and CRM, enabling digital
Have strengthened the sales There will be no significant impact of the proposed business innovations. It is vertical agnostic and can
changes in H1B visa regulations. Only ~60 people are easily be clubbed with existing offerings.
team to improve deal wins
on H1B (2% of employees).
Travel (26% of IITS revenue) has been facing issues
Tridip Saha has joined as the head of the companys due to Brexit and GBP depreciation. There are large
European business recently. He has held sales clients in Travel, which is a large tour operation in UK
leadership positions in CSC and Mindtree, with region. SAP hybris and Rezopia are the two important
IBIS and Halosys acquisitions experience primarilarily in Retail, CPG and Travel offerings in the Travel vertical.
verticals. He holds a BE from Jadavpur University and
are set to yield results
an MBA from IIM Ahmedabad. The company gets 70% of IITS revenue from its top
10 clients. The top 3 account for ~50% of its IITS
Omprakash Subbarao has also joined as the Head of revenues (One each in OPD, Travel and Retail).
Digital. He brings in great domain knowledge and has
25+ years of experience working in organisations like There was a significant rise in offshore revenue owing
Accenture, TCS, Infosys, AT&T etc. to a shift of the onsite work of one large client to an
IITS growth will be led by off-shore centre. Onsite-offshore mix will remain in
the range of 40/60% respectively.
Travel and Retail; OPD has
stabilised
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SONATA SOFTWARE: COMPANY UPDATE
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY19 as both business
segments are growing
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Page | 3
SONATA SOFTWARE: COMPANY UPDATE
IITS US$ Rev Growth Trend IITS INR Rev Growth Trend
Revenue (US$ mn) YoY growth (RHS) Revenue (Rs bn) YoY growth (RHS)
(US$ mn) (%, YoY) (Rs bn) (%, YoY)
170 159.7 35 12 50
Management aims to double 10.70
150 139.5 9.35 45
revenues in the next four 122.4
30 10
130 8.23 40
years ~200mn in FY20E, which 107.8 25 8 7.07 35
110 98.3
is possible because of lower 6.07 30
90 79.2 20 6 4.84
revenue base and decent 61.2
25
70 3.35
portfolio of scalable IPs 15 4 20
50 15
10 2
30 10
10 5 0 5
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
IITS EBITA margin is set to Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
9MFY17
strong traction, has and
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
Page | 4
SONATA SOFTWARE: COMPANY UPDATE
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
9MFY17
9MFY17
depreciation
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
3,161
3,111
from where it gets 70% of IITS 64
3,200 62 62
revenue 2,896
62
3,000
60
2,800
58
2,445
2,600 56 56
56
2,257
2,400 54
2,200 52
2,000 50
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
9MFY17
9MFY17
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Page | 5
SONATA SOFTWARE: COMPANY UPDATE
2.3
Digitalaccounts for 31% of 100% 3.6
1.3 5.2 Significant exposure (~40%)
4.3
revenues and is present 90%
5.1
3.0
4.3 to Platforms and new
5.0
across verticals. Growth in 8.9 6.3 services
9.3
Digital is largely due to 80% 9.0
7.1
traction in IMS and IPs 7.8
70%
14.2 15.3
14.3
60%
20%
34.1
24.7 24.7
10%
0%
FY15
FY16
9MFY17
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Page | 6
SONATA SOFTWARE: COMPANY UPDATE
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
is measured on gross margin
basis
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
84
eaten up margins. DPS 170
153
76
76
80.0
148
Margin will be in the range of
72
150 70.0
~4-5%
60.0
122
120
52
118
130
50.0
110 40.0
90 30.0
20.0
70
10.0
50 0.0
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
9MFY17
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
9MFY17
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Page | 7
SONATA SOFTWARE: COMPANY UPDATE
Change in Estimates
Particulars Earlier estimates Revised estimates % change
FY18E
Revenue (Rs mn) 28,148 28,228 0.3
EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,379 2,382 0.1
EBITDA margin (%) 8.5 8.4 (1)bps
APAT 1,884 1,892 0.4
FY19E
Revenue (Rs mn) 32,324 32,606 0.9
EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,767 2,834 2.4
EBITDA margin (%) 8.6 8.7 13bps
APAT 2,171 2,217 2.1
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
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SONATA SOFTWARE: COMPANY UPDATE
Peer Valuation
Mcap CMP TP EPS (Rs) P/E (x) RoE (%)
Company Rating
(Rs bn) (Rs) (Rs) FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E
Mphasis 118 559 BUY 640 38.0 41.4 45.5 14.7 13.5 12.3 12.4 12.9 13.3
Mindtree 78 467 SELL 430 25.9 32.9 37.4 18.0 14.2 12.5 17.7 20.1 20.9
Hexaware * 62 205 NEU 215 13.8 14.6 16.5 14.8 14.1 12.4 26.8 23.4 23.2
eClerx 59 1,412 SELL 1,240 91.9 85.3 98.9 15.4 16.6 14.3 30.2 24.4 25.9
Cyient 53 469 NEU 510 33.3 39.5 45.7 14.1 11.9 10.3 18.5 19.7 20.2
Persistent 49 617 BUY 775 39.9 43.2 54.9 15.5 14.3 11.2 18.0 16.7 18.3
Zensar 41 923 BUY 1,210 69.2 84.9 95.8 13.2 10.8 9.6 19.5 20.5 19.7
KPIT Tech 27 135 NEU 130 12.1 13.4 16.1 11.1 10.0 8.4 16.3 15.9 16.9
Sonata 21 197 BUY 244 15.4 18.0 21.1 12.7 10.9 9.3 32.7 33.7 34.3
Source: HDFC sec Inst Research * YE Dec
Page | 9
SONATA SOFTWARE: COMPANY UPDATE
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SONATA SOFTWARE: COMPANY UPDATE
Page | 11
SONATA SOFTWARE: COMPANY UPDATE
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
Date CMP Reco Target
Sonata Software TP
11-Feb-16 155 BUY 184
240 25-May-16 149 BUY 178
220 8-Jul-16 173 BUY 190
10-Aug-16 153 BUY 186
200
6-Oct-16 157 BUY 193
180 4-Nov-16 163 BUY 192
160 9-Jan-17 196 BUY 231
7-Feb-17 194 BUY 237
140
13-Feb-17 197 BUY 244
120
100
Rating Definitions
BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
Aug-16
Apr-16
Jan-17
Feb-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Feb-17
Nov-16
Jun-16
May-16
Dec-16
Mar-16
Oct-16
NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period
Page | 12
SONATA SOFTWARE: COMPANY UPDATE
Disclosure:
We, Amit Chandra, MBA & Apurva Prasad, MBA authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our
views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in
this report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its
Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further
Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock No
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HDFC securities
Institutional Equities
Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park,
Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel,Mumbai - 400 013
Board : +91-22-6171-7330 www.hdfcsec.com
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