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STATISTICS
BFC 34303
Chapter 2 :
PROBABILITY
The Definition of Basic Terms in
Probability
Sample Space S = { H ,T }
H ~ head , T ~ tail
(iv) Event ~ is a subset of basic
outcomes from the sample space.
Example
Rolling a die
the basic outcomes are the
numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.
Thus S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ,6 } 1 3
2 5
If A = { 1, 3, 5 } 4
n(A) = 5
A B=
A B
Example
Rolling a die
Let A : getting even numbers
B : getting odd numbers
A={2,4,6} A B
(1) 4 (1) 3
B={1,3,5} 6 5
Therefore, A B=
Exhaustive Events
A1 A2 A3 A4
A5
A6 A7 A8
Example
Let S={1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10}.
If A={1,2,3,4,5,6} and
B ={5,6,7,8,9,10},
then n (A B) =n (S).
Therefore,
A & B are exhaustive events.
Example
Let S={1,2,3,4,5,6}.
If A={2,4,6} and
B={1,3},
Loading
then n (A B) n (S).
Therefore,
A and B are not exhaustive
events.
The Probability Of An Event
Definition
The probability of an event A occurring is
denoted by P(A) ,where
P(A) =
=
P(A) satisfies the following conditions
0 P(A) 1
H
T
T
(a) S={HH,HT,TH,TT} n(S) =
4
Let A be the event of getting 2 heads
A = {HH}
Thus P(A) =
Example
There are 100 FKAAS first year students , of
whom 20 are studying mathematics, 15 are
studying statistics and 8 are studying both
mathematics and statistics. We can illustrate
this in a Venn diagram.
There are 100 FKAAS first year students , of whom
20 are studying mathematics, 15 are studying
statistics and 8 are studying both mathematics
and statistics. We can illustrate this in a Venn
diagram.
DEFINITION
Probability of two events A or B occurring
can be calculated using additional probability
rules such as below,
SOLUTION :
Let,
L = event to get a man driver
T = event to get a driver aged below 30 years
old
According to the information given,
P(L) = 0.80, P(T) = 0.17 and P(L T) = 0.13
We want to find P(L T).
50< 4070hrs
hrs 63
46 21
14 4
10 88
70
> 70 hrs 87 8 17 112
196 43 31
Production Administrative Security
operator officer guard
< 40 hrs 63 21 4 88
50 70 hrs 46 14 10 70
> 70 hrs 87 8 17 112
196 43 31
Let
P = the worker is a production operator
since P( A B)=0
On a Venn diagram
A B s
The concept of mutually exclusive
events can be extended to more than
two events.
Definition 2
(b) P( ) = 1 P(C)
= 1 0.1
= 0.9
can be determined by using the
Venn diagram below
S
C D
= 1 - 0.3
= 0.7
Example
The events A, B , C and D are mutually
exclusive with P(A) = P(B) = 0.3 and
P(C) = P(D) = 0.1
If E and F are events defined by E = A D
and F = B C , find
Solution
=0
since A, B, C and D are
mutually exclusive events
Example
A bag contains 4 red marbles, 2 white marbles
and 8 black marbles. What is the probability
that a marble picked from the bag at random
is either red or white ?
Solution :
Let R : event that red marble is picked
Conditional Probability
c) P(B|A)
Solution:
P(A B)
Example
30 professors out of 100 who are examined were
found to be overweight (W). 10 of them had high
blood pressure (H). Only 4 of the professors who
were not overweight had high blood pressure.
Find the probability that a professor
(a) is overweight if he had high blood pressure,
(b) will not have high blood pressure if he is
overweight.
Solution:
W Total
H 10 4 14
20 66 86
Total 30 70 100
Example
Harry travels to work by either route A or route B.
The probability that he chooses route A is .
if he chooses route B is .
A L
L
B
L
0
(a) P(L)
(b)
The probability rule for conditional events,
Then, we have
0
Definition
If A and B are independent events, it means
that the outcome of one event does not affect
the outcome of the other, then
and
Thus,
0
A and B are
Solution:
independent
A and B are
independent
0
Example
A, B and C are three events such that
A and B are independent, A and C are
mutually exclusive .
Given P(A) = 0.4 , P(B) = 0.2 , P(C) = 0.3
and P(B C ) = 0.1 .
Find
(a) P(A U B)
(b) P( C | B ) ( c) P( C | A)
0
A and B are
Solution:
independent
a) P(A U B) =
b) P( C | B )
0
c)P( C | A)
A B C
0
Example
A mathematics puzzle is given to three
students Aziz, Bong and Samy. From the
past experience, known that the probabilities
Aziz, Bong and Samy will get the correct
solutions are 0.65, 0.6 and 0.55 respectively.
If three of them attempt to solve the puzzle
without consulting each other, find the
probability that:
0
a) The event that the puzzle will be solved
correctly
by all of them is the event
0
Example
The probability that Roy is late for college on any
day is 0.15 and is independent of whether he was
late on the previous day. Find the probability that
he
a) is late on Monday and Tuesday
0
Solution:
0.15 LATE
0.15 LATE
0.85 ON TIME
0.85 ON TIME
Monday Tuesday 0
a) P( late on Monday and Tuesday
)
= (0.15)(0.15)
= 0.0225
a) P( arrives on time on one of these days
)
= (0.15) (0.85) + (0.15)(0.85)
= 0.1275 + 0.1275
= 0.2550
0
TRY THIS
There are 60 students in a certain college, 27 of them are
taking Mathematics, 20 are taking Biology and 22 are
taking neither Mathematics nor Biology.
Biology .
Solution:
M
20-x B
27-x x
22
a) 27 - x + x + 20 - x + 22 = 60
x=9
(i)
(ii)
0
b)
n(A) = 5
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P(A | B)
0
TOTAL PROBABILITY OF EVENT B = P(B)
P( B | A ) B
A B
P( A)
P( B | A )
B
P( A) A
B
P( B ) = P(A) x P( B | A ) + P(A) x P( B | A ) 0
THE TOTAL PROBABILITY THEOREM
P( B ) = P(A1) x P( B | A1 ) P(A2) x P( B | A2 )
+
+ P(A3) x P( B | A3 +..+ P(An) x P( B | An )
)
0
P (A|B) : the probability of A given B
0
(1
)
(2
)
0
BAYES THEOREM
R1 G2
R2
G1
G2
(b) P( R2 | R1 )
P( R2 | R1
)
0
(c) P( R2 | G1 ) Direct from the
tree diagram
0
|
(e) P(R1 | R2 ) =
Reverse
condition
use Bayes
Theorem
0
Example
Harry travels to work by route A or route B.
The probability that he chooses route A is .
A L (not late)
BAYES
(b) THEOREM
0
Example
Aishah, Siti and Muna pack biscuits in a
factory. Aishah packs 55%, Siti 30% and
Muna 15% from the batch allotted to them.
packed by Aishah ?
Solution:
A Aishah, S Siti , M - Muna
B Broken Biscuits
0. B
7
A B
0.5 0.
5 30. B
0.3 S 2
0. B
0.1 M 0.8
B
5 1
0. B 0
9
BAYES
THEOREM
0
Example
According to a firms internal survey, of those
employees living more than 2 miles from work , 90%
travel to work by car. Of the remaining employees,
only 50% travel to work by car. It is known that 75%
of employees live more than 2 miles from work.
Find
(i)the
(ii) theoverall
probability
proportion
that an
ofemployee
employeeswho
who
travels
traveltotowork
workby
bycar
lives
car. more than 2 miles from work.
0
Solution:
Define the events C , B1 , B2 as follows :
C : Travels to work by car
B1 : Lives more than 2 miles from work
B2 : Lives not more than 2 miles from work
C (i) P(C) =
B1 P(B1) x P( C | B1 )
C
+ P(B2) x P( C | B2
)
= ( 0.75 x 0.9 ) +
B2 C ( 0.25 x 0.5 )
C =
0.8
P( C | B1 ) = P( C | B2 ) = 80% of employees
0.9 0.5 travel to work
P(B1)
0 = 0.75,P(B2) = 0.25
0
by car.
BAYES
(ii) THEOREM