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University of Manitoba, Health Sciences Centre, GF 533, 820 Sherbrook Street, Winnipeg, MB, Canada R3A
1R9
Received 21 December 2012; received in revised form 16 February 2013; accepted 7 March 2013
KEYWORDS Abstract
Multiple sclerosis; Background: Studies suggest an altered risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in multiple
Cardiac disease; sclerosis (MS), but data are limited. We aimed to validate and apply administrative case
Administrative data; denitions to estimate the incidence and prevalence of IHD in MS.
Validation; Methods: Using administrative data we identied persons with incident MS (MSPOP) and
Prevalence;
a matched general population (GPOP) cohort. We developed case denitions for IHD using
Incidence
ICD-9/10 codes and prescription claims, compared them to medical records, then applied them
to evaluate the incidence and prevalence of IHD.
Results: Agreement between medical records and the administrative denition using 1
hospital or 2 physician claims over 5 years was moderate (kappa= 0.66; 95% CI: 0.420.90).
In 2005, the age-standardized prevalence of IHD was 6.77% (95% CI: 5.488.07%) in the MSPOP
and 6.11% (95% CI: 5.566.66%) in the GPOP. The prevalence of IHD was higher in the MSPOP
than the GPOP among persons aged 2044 years (prevalence ratio 1.87; 95% CI: 1.652.12) and
aged 4559 years (prevalence ratio 1.21; 95% CI: 1.081.35). The incidence of IHD was also
higher in the MSPOP (incidence rate ratio 1.24; 95% CI: 0.971.59).
Conclusions: More than 5% of the MSPOP has IHD. The incidence of IHD was higher than
expected in persons aged o60 years. Further evaluation of this issue is warranted.
& 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
2211-0348/$ - see front matter & 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.msard.2013.03.001
356 R.A. Marrie et al.
studies suggest that diabetes, hypertension and hyperlipidemia claim for demyelinating disease (e.g. transverse myelitis) as
are common in multiple sclerosis (MS) (Marrie et al., 2008, the date of MS diagnosis. To ensure that we were using
2012a,b). While these conditions are associated with an incident cases of MS we required a ve-year lookback period
increased risk of IHD, ndings regarding the risk of IHD in MS with no demyelinating disease claims. Since our data were
are conicting (Fleming and Blake, 1994; Redelings et al., 2006; available from 1984 onward this meant that the rst MS case
Allen et al., 2008); (Koch-Henriksen et al., 1998). The issue of could be identied in 1989. After excluding persons with any
comorbid IHD is an important one in MS because it increases the diagnostic codes for demyelinating disease, we identied a
risk of premature death, and is associated with increased risks cohort from the general population, matched on sex, year of
of cerebrovascular and peripheral vascular disease (Alberts birth and region of residence (postal code) to the MS cohort,
et al., 2009; Mehlsen et al., 2010). Further, IHD is associated with up to 5 controls for each case. Controls were assigned
with increased disability progression in MS (Marrie et al., 2010). the same index date as their matched controls. A population
Finally, new disease-modifying medications are emerging where registry is maintained by Manitoba Health, and it is updated
the presence of comorbid cardiac disease may inuence the when an individual moves into or out of Manitoba, changes
safety of using those therapies (Cohen, 2009; European marital status, or dies. Thus persons with MS or their
Medicines Agency, 2012). Thus it is important that the risk of matched controls were included in the analysis from the
IHD in MS be better characterized; and this can only be done if index date until the end of the study (2005), death or
methods for the ascertainment of IHD amongst individuals with emigration from Manitoba, whichever came rst.
MS are developed and validated.
We aimed to develop and validate a case denition for 2.4. Validation cohort
ischemic heart disease using administrative data; and to
apply this denition to estimate the incidence and pre- As detailed elsewhere, our validation cohort included 430
valence of IHD in persons with MS and a matched cohort persons with denite MS (Marrie et al., 2010) drawn from two
from the general population. Unlike prior studies we did not studies (Horton et al., 2010; Marrie et al., 2010). In both
limit our study to hospitalized persons, to comprehensively studies, participants consented to review of their medical
assess the incidence and prevalence of IHD. records, and to linkage of their administrative and clinical
data. A blinded, trained, abstractor used a standardized data
2. Materials and methods collection form to capture comorbidities from the medical
records of all participants (Marrie et al., 2010). Participants
also completed a questionnaire regarding their comorbid-
2.1. Study setting
ities, including heart disease (Horton et al., 2010).
This was a population-based analysis of administrative (health
claims) data for the period 19842005, conducted in Manitoba, 2.5. Case denitions for IHD
a Canadian province with a population of approximately 1.2
million (Health Information Management Branch, 2008). After a literature review, we selected ICD-9/10 codes for IHD
(410414, I20I25) (Austin et al., 2002; Rector et al., 2004; Lix
et al., 2008; Varas-Lorenzo et al., 2008). We generated lists
2.2. Administrative data of prescription medications available for treatment of IHD in
Canada using the Anatomic Therapeutic Chemical system,
Manitoba Health, a provincial government department, pro- including C01 (cardiac therapy), C07 (beta-blockers), C08
vides health care services to 98% of the population (Health (calcium channel blockers), and C09 (agents acting on renin-
Information Management Branch, 2008). Since 1984 all hospital, angiotensin system) (Lix et al., 2008). Finally, we developed
physician and prescription claims submitted to Manitoba Health candidate case denitions, varying the number of physician,
include a personal health identication number (PHIN) which hospital and prescription claims required and the number of
uniquely identies the person receiving the service. Each years used to classify a person as having IHD.
hospitalization record includes admission and discharge dates, Using the validation cohort, we compared the classication
and up to 16 discharge diagnoses listed using International of IHD cases using administrative denitions with cases
Classication of Disease (ICD)-10-CA codes. Before 2004, dis- dened by medical records review, using sensitivity, speci-
charge diagnoses were recorded using ve-digit ICD-9-CM codes. city, positive predictive value and negative predictive value.
Physician claims include the date of service, and three-digit Youden's J, an index that equally weights sensitivity and
ICD-9-CM code for one physician-assigned diagnosis for all specicity, was calculated as: (sensitivity+specicity) 1
physicians irrespective of physician type (e.g. primary care (Youden, 1950). We also report a kappa () statistic for the
provider versus specialist). Since 1996 the Drug Programs agreement between administrative and medical records data,
Information Network captures the date, drug name and interpreting as follows: slight (00.20), fair (0.210.40),
identication number for all outpatient prescription drugs moderate (0.410.60), substantial (0.610.80), and almost
which are dispensed to Manitoba residents. perfect agreement (0.811.0) (Landis and Koch, 1977).
Previously, we validated an administrative case denition We applied selected case denitions to both study popula-
for MS (Marrie et al., 2010) which we applied to identify all tions. Once a person met the case denition for IHD, he or she
persons with MS in Manitoba. We used the date of the rst was dened as affected in all subsequent years while alive and
Prevalence and incidence of ischemic heart disease in multiple sclerosis 357
resident in Manitoba (National Diabetes Surveillance System, disease based on medical records review was 2.8% (n= 12),
2003). The point prevalence was estimated on October 1 each and was 5.7% (n= 24) based on self-report.
year using the mid-year population gures from the Manitoba
Health registry for denominators in the calculations. To 3.2. Case denitions
estimate incidence we required a 5-year run-in period pre-
ceding the rst IHD claim to ensure that cases were truly We tested several administrative case denitions (labeled
incident. We estimated age and sex-specic incidence and AP) for IHD (Table S1). Agreement between case denitions
prevalence using age groups 2044, 4559, and 60 years and and medical records ranged from 0.48 (moderate) to 0.73
older, which were selected to ensure adequate cell sizes to (substantial). Agreement was highest for case denitions C
protect participant condentiality. (1 physician and 2 prescription claims in one year;
We age-standardized the incidence and prevalence results k = 0.72) and D (2 physician and 1 prescription claims
to the 2001 Canadian population (Rothman and Greenland, in one year; k = 0.73). Both of these denitions produced
1998) and 95% condence intervals (CI) were calculated using high specicities of 99.5100%, but modest sensitivity (58.3
an exact binomial distribution. In a matched cohort design a 66.7%).
matched analysis is not needed (Rothman and Greenland,
1998) and adjustment is not needed to control for confound-
ing due to the matched variables if follow-up time is the 3.3. Prevalence
same in both cohorts. If follow-up time is not the same due to
differential survival for example, then adjustment is needed. Denition D had the highest value (0.73) when compared
Because of overdispersion we used negative binomial regres- with medical records review. Denition N had a slightly
sion to calculate prevalence ratios (PR) and incidence rate lower value of (0.66) but similar sensitivity and specicity.
ratios (IRR) and 95% CI between the MS and control groups, Using denition N, the crude prevalence of IHD in 2005
adjusting for sex, age, and scal year. was 5.90% (95% CI: 4.947.05%) in the MS population and
The University of Manitoba Health Research Ethics 5.17% (95% CI: 4.7615.63%) in the controls. The age-
Board approved the study and the Manitoba Health Informa- standardized prevalence was 6.77% (95% CI: 5.488.07%) in
tion Privacy Committee approved administrative data the MS population and 6.11% (95% CI: 5.566.66%) in the
access. To protect condentiality data linkage was per- controls. Since this denition produced a prevalence of IHD
formed via scrambled PHIN, using anonymized versions of in the general population consistent with the published
the administrative databases. Informed consent was literature (Chow et al., 2005) and could be used even in
obtained from participants in the validation cohort. Statis- jurisdictions without prescription claims, subsequent ana-
tical analyses were conducted using SAS 9.2 (SAS Institute lyses used this denition.
Inc., Cary NC). The prevalence of IHD increased with age (Table 2) in
both populations. When stratied by age group (p for
interaction [age group population] = 0.0008), a negative
3. Results binomial model adjusting for sex and scal year showed that
the prevalence of IHD was higher for persons with MS than in
3.1. Participants the controls for persons aged 2044 years (PR 1.87; 95% CI:
1.652.12), and persons aged 4559 years (PR 1.21; 95% CI:
The study population included 2366 persons with incident 1.081.35). In persons aged 60 years, however, the pre-
MS (74% female) and 11,786 persons from the general valence of IHD was lower in the MS population than the
population (Table 1). The validation cohort comprised controls (PR 0.81; 95% CI: 0.700.92).
430 persons with MS, most of whom were white (391, Women in both populations and across all age groups had
91.6%), women (331, 77.0%), with a mean (SD) age at a lower prevalence of IHD than men, although the disparity
symptom onset of 33.2 (11.1) years, similar to other MS between sexes decreased with increasing age. Thus, after
populations (Jacobs et al., 1999). Of these 422 had com- adjusting for year and population (MS versus controls), in
plete data regarding heart disease. The frequency of heart persons aged 2044 years, women had a 68% lower
n 2366 11786
Female, n (%) 74.1 74.1
Age at rst demyelinating disease claim (years)a, mean (SD) 40.5 (12.4) 40.5 (12.4)
Person-years of observation 16848.43 83604.64
No. incident IHD cases 82 330
Censored due to death or migration, n (%) 272 (11.5) 1237 (10.5)
Alive and disease free at end of study period, n (%) 2012 (85.0) 10219 (86.7)
a
Index date for matched controls from general population.
358 R.A. Marrie et al.
Table 2 Prevalence per 100,000 persons of ischemic heart disease in 2005 in the multiple sclerosis and general populations,
according to age and sex.
2044 0.44 0.14, 1.35 2.29 0.86, 6.09 0.26 0.14, 0.50 0.82 0.39, 1.72
4559 3.23 2.10, 4.95 12.5 8.81, 17.8 3.17 2.62, 3.83 7.08 5.74, 8.73
60 17.2 12.2, 24.2 29.5 20.6, 42.2 17.7 15.3, 20.5 28.1 24.0, 32.9
Total 3.70 2.85, 4.79 12.3 9.69, 15.7 3.77 3.36, 4.22 9.36 8.26, 10.6
Table 3 Average annual incidence per 100,000 person years of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in the MS population and
matched general population cohort by gender and age group in Manitoba, 19892005.
Multiple sclerosis
2044 a 81.3 36.5, 180.9 a 156.1 50.3, 483.9 0.52 0.13, 2.08 9 96.7 50.3, 185.9
4559 a 377.6 237.9, 599.3 a 1077.6 709.5, 1636.5 0.35 0.19, 0.65 40 587.5 430.9, 800.9
60+ 17 1247.83 775.7, 2007.2 16 2271.5 1391.6, 3707.8 0.55 0.28, 1.09 33 1596.7 1135.1, 2246.0
Total 41 303.4 223.4, 412.0 41 878.3 646.7, 1192.8 0.35 0.22, 0.53 82 451.0 363.2, 560.0
General population
2044 14 38.5 22.8, 65.0 8 85.4 42.7, 170.8 0.45 0.19, 1.07 22 48.1 31.7, 73.0
4559 78 326.8 261.8, 408 70 697.0 551.4, 881.0 0.47 0.34, 0.65 148 436.4 371.5, 512.7
60+ 90 1318.5 1072.4, 1621.1 70 1915.3 1515.3, 2420.9 0.69 0.50, 0.94 160 1526.6 1307.5, 1782.5
Total 182 271.4 234.7, 313.8 148 641.8 546.3, 754.0 0.42 0.34, 0.53 330 366.1 328.7, 407.8
prevalence of IHD (PR 0.32; 95% CI: 0.290.36), while in in the MS population and 93 years in the controls. The
persons aged 60 years, women had a 34% lower prevalence incidence of IHD increased with age in both populations
of IHD (PR 0.66; 95% CI: 0.600.73). (Table 3). As compared to persons aged 2044 years, the
incidence rate of IHD was 7-fold higher in persons aged 45
59 years (IRR 7.70; 95% CI: 5.2311.3) and more than 50-fold
3.4. Incidence (Denition N) higher in persons aged 60 years (IRR 59.0; 95% CI: 27.3
128.7). The wide CIs reect the small numbers of affected
We identied 82 incident cases of IHD and 330 incident individuals in some cells.
cases of IHD in the general population (Table 1). In 2005, In a stratied regression model, the incidence of IHD was
the age-standardized incidence of IHD was 754.7 (95% CI: similar among persons aged 60 years in the MS population as
335.61173.7) per 100,000 persons per year in the MS in the controls (IRR 1.04; 95% CI: 0.691.56), consistent with
population and was 436.9 (95% CI: 292.6581.2) in the the ndings for prevalence and suggesting that the overall
controls. Over the period from 1989 to 2005, the incidence increased incidence was driven by the ndings in those aged
rate of IHD was 24% higher in the MS population (IRR 1.24; o60 years. Unlike prevalence, the incidence of IHD did not
95% CI: 0.971.59). The incidence of IHD was lower in differ between the MS and controls for persons aged 2044
women than men (Table 3). After adjusting for age, year years (IRR 2.01; 95% CI: 0.944.30) or 4559 years (IRR 1.33;
and MS status, women had a 46% lower risk of IHD (IRR 0.54; 95% CI: 0.951.86) as compared to the controls; however,
95% CI: 0.440.65). the number of incident cases in the MS population was
Based on the rst IHD claim, the mean (SD) age of onset small in these age groups, making it difcult to draw rm
of IHD in the MS population was 58.1 (11.5) years versus 59.7 conclusions.
(11.4) years in the general population; the earliest age of Although the incidence of IHD varied from year to year,
onset was 25 years in the MS population and 37 in the there was no change over time (IRR 1.00; 95% CI: 0.981.03)
general population but the latest age of onset was 85 years in either population.
Prevalence and incidence of ischemic heart disease in multiple sclerosis 359
comparing the incidence and prevalence of disease across and receives research funding from the Canadian Institutes for
populations. Health Research, the Institute of Health Economics and the
Aside from the small number of incident IHD cases among Alberta Collaborative Research Grants Initiative.
persons with MS, another limitation of this study was that Larry Svenson reports no disclosures.
medical records review for the validation cohort did not involve Helen Tremlett currently receives funding from: the
all records of all health care providers; potentially contributing Multiple Sclerosis Society of Canada [Don Paty Career
to disagreement between data sources. Strengths of the study Development Award]; US National MS Society [#RG 4202-
included validation of the administrative case denition in a 0A-2 (PI)]; Canadian Institutes of Health Research [MOP:
population similar to that in which it would be applied (Marrie #190898 (PI) and MOP-93646 (PI)]; Michael Smith Foundation
et al., 2012a,b) the population-based design, use of data for Health Research (Scholar award) and the Canada
covering hospitalizations and outpatient care, and use of a Research Chair program. She has received speaker honoraria
longitudinal dataset covering more than 20 years. and/or travel expenses to attend conferences from: the
Consortium of MS Centres, US National MS Society, Swiss
Multiple Sclerosis Society, the University of British Columbia
5. Conclusions
Multiple Sclerosis Research Program, Teva Pharmaceuticals
and Bayer Pharmaceutical (honoraria declined) and
Future studies should evaluate the performance of these and
ECTRIMS. Unless otherwise stated, all speaker honoraria
potentially other administrative case denitions in the MS
are either donated to an MS charity or to an unrestricted
population in other jurisdictions, and in other chronic disease
grant for use by her research group.
populations. Such evaluation is necessary to determine if the
John Fisk is the Director of the endMS Atlantic Regional
performance characteristics of the case denitions are stable,
Research and Training Centre which is funded by the Multi-
and to establish their use for pharmacovigilance. More than 5%
ple Sclerosis Society of Canada. He receives research
of the MS population had IHD, and the incidence of IHD was
funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research
higher than expected in persons aged o60 years. Further
(CIHR) and in the past has received grants, honoraria and
evaluation of the possible increased risk of IHD in persons with
consultation fees from AstraZeneca, Bayer, Biogen-Idec
MS and the underlying mechanisms is warranted.
Canada, Heron Evidence Development Limited, Hoffmann-
La Roche, MAPI Research Trust, Novartis, Sano-Aventis,
Conict of interest Serono Canada, and QualityMetric Incorporated.
James Blanchard receives research support from the
Ruth Ann Marrie receives research funding from: Canadian Multiple Sclerosis Society of Canada, CIHR, Bill & Melinda
Institutes of Health Research, Public Health Agency of Gates Foundation, Canadian International Development Agency
Canada, Manitoba Health Research Council, Health Sciences and the United States Agency for International Development.
Centre Foundation, Multiple Sclerosis Society of Canada,
Multiple Sclerosis Scientic Foundation, Rx & D Health Acknowledgments
Research Foundation, and has conducted clinical trials
funded by Sano-Aventis.
This study was supported (in part) by operating and Don
Nancy Yu receives research support from the Canadian
Paty Career Development grants from the Multiple Sclerosis
International Development Agency, the Multiple Sclerosis
Society of Canada, the Manitoba Health Research Council
Society of Canada, CIHR, and Manitoba Health and Healthy
and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, and the Rx
Living.
& D Health Research Foundation. The funding source(s) had
Stella Leung reports no disclosures.
no role in the study design, collection, analysis or inter-
Lawrence Elliott receives research support from the
pretation of the data, nor in the decision to submit the
Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Health Sciences
article for publication. The results and conclusions pre-
Centre Foundation, Public Health Agency of Canada, and
sented are those of the authors. No ofcial endorsement by
the Multiple Sclerosis Society of Canada.
Manitoba Health is intended or should be inferred.
Patricia Caetano has worked on a research project funded
CIHR Team in the Epidemiology and Impact of Comorbidity on
by Amgen.
Multiple Sclerosis (by site): University of Manitoba (James
Sharon Warren receives research funding from the CIHR,
Blanchard MD, PhD; Patricia Caetano, PhD; Lawrence Elliott,
the Canadian Health Services Research Foundation, Alberta
MD, MSc; Stella Leung, MSc; Ruth Ann Marrie, MD, PhD; Bo
Health Services and SSHRC.
Nancy Yu, MD, PhD; Yichuan Wei, MSc), Dalhousie University
Christina Wolfson receives research funding from the
(Virender Bhan, MBBS; John D. Fisk, PhD), University of Alberta
Multiple Sclerosis Society of Canada, Canadian Institutes
(Joanne Profetto-McGrath, PhD; Sharon Warren, PhD; Larry
of Health Research, Canada Foundation for Innovation, and
Svenson, BSc); McGill University (Christina Wolfson, PhD);
Public Health Agency of Canada.
University of British Columbia (Helen Tremlett, PhD); University
Scott Patten was a member of an advisory board for Servier,
of Calgary (Scott Patten, MD, PhD).
Canada. He has received honoraria for reviewing investigator-
initiated grant applications submitted to Lundbeck and Pzer
and has received speaking honoraria from Teva and Lundbeck. Appendix A. Supporting information
He is an associate editor for the Canadian Journal of Psychiatry
and a member of the editorial board of Chronic Diseases and Supplementary data associated with this article can be found
Injuries in Canada. He is the recipient of a salary support award in the online version at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.msard.
(Senior Health Scholar) from Alberta Innovates, Health Solutions 2013.03.001.
Prevalence and incidence of ischemic heart disease in multiple sclerosis 361