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Pakistan is passing through the most interesting phase of its history when it comes to

foreign relations and strategic alignments. At a time when we are moving towards
attaining a semblance of internal stability, we appear to be hounded by demons from all
sides and there is talk of encirclement of Pakistan, much to the chagrin of our foreign
policy establishment, who are getting all the flak, especially in the absence of a full time
Foreign Minister and with the Prime Minister expected to remain abroad for some time.
This has given the impression of the dominance of, what they call the security
establishment in strategic decision making.

In order for us to analyse and make some sense of the fast moving scenario around us,
we have to look at the series of events which took place since 2013, and which is
reflective of our internal and external scene. I have selected 2013 because this year
marked the first smooth transition of political power after a general election, which
installed Mr Nawaz Sharif to power and who in turn selected General Raheel Sharif to
head the military establishment in the same year. Actions by these two personalities
brought by far the most significant changes in the national scenario, which in turn
effected our foreign policy outlook.

Now let us look at these milestones, not necessarily in the chronological order.

First, is the ascendency to power of Mr Narendra Modi as Prime Minister of India, who
owes this more to his anti-Muslim agenda then to good performance in Gujrat. His main
credentials which endeared him to Hindu-India was his presiding over the massacre of
Muslim in Gujrat Province. Anti-Muslim means anti-Pakistan, a trait which he
significantly demonstrated in his treatment of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif who was
simple enough to assume that his attendance of Mr Modis inauguration would endear
him to Indian people and the Government. Mr Modis belligerent policy towards Pakistan
was amply demonstrated till he changed strategy and made a surprise personal visit to
Jati Umra, Lahore. However, by then, Pakistan had firmed up a policy to deal with
Modis India and the Indians too had finalised and put into operation its plans against
Pakistan.
The second event is the commencement of Operation Zarb-e-Azb, with or without the
consent of the Government, coupled with the Karachi Operation and the unannounced
Operation in Balochistan. This was immediately followed by the Army Public School
massacre, which put the seal of national approval to the Operation. It was for the first
time that the whole nation was united in its resolve to eliminate the TTP menace and we
never looked back. The success of this Operation gave new vigour and confidence to
the despondent nation and put Pakistan Army in the driving seat of decision-making
related to matters of security.

The third is the Saudi operation against Yemen and the refusal by Pakistan to be a part
of the Saudi Coalition. This brought a strong reaction from the Gulf States, manifested
by the statement from the UAE Cultural Minister of teaching Pakistan a lesson,
prompted by the disappointment over always having taken Pakistan for granted.
Coupled with this is the Saudi-Iran row over execution by the former of a senior Shia
cleric which brought a very strong reaction from Iran, and here again Pakistan remained
neutral, opting for the role of a mediator.

Fourth is the visit of the Iranian President to Pakistan, eclipsed by announcement of the
capture of Mr Kalbhushan Yadav. Pakistan for the first time publicly reprimanded Iran for
having hosted him.

Fifth is the winding up of the Afghan Dialogue through disclosure of the news about
death of Mullah Omer and the later killing by United States of his successor, Mullah
Akhtar Mansoor. This dealt the final death blow to the whole exercise and finally ended
the confusion as to who leaked the news and who wanted this process to terminate.
With U.S in the driving seat in Afghanistan, this is the unfolding of a new policy by them
and which our security establishment must be trying to appraise. Read into this the new
emerging alliance between United States and India.
Sixth, is the game changer and cause of all this diplomatic upheaval around us, the
CPEC. The Chinese have been working on CPEC for at least ten years, if not earlier. I
know for sure that since 2005, they have been broaching this subject at various
bureaucratic levels. Handing over the Gawadar Port to Singapore irked them, but
indicated their resolve remained firmed, till they decided to take it back. The Chinese
have always been extremely supportive of Pakistan, even in areas which the general
public has not known of. However, they have always endeavoured to avoid this
becoming public knowledge. The motive behind this is to avoid any backlash from world
powers, including India. It is, no doubt, the first time that China came out openly and
with a table-thumping gesture, in the case of signing the CPEC agreement with
Pakistan. In any case there was no choice because of the enormity and size of the
project. This agreement has not just been signed between two governments but
between the two establishments of the state, indicating an even stronger partnership
between them. By announcing the $42 billion investment package, the two nations have
come up with their resolve to support each other, come what may, and laid the
foundation of an enduring strategic alliance, the cornerstone of which is the Gawadar
Port. China has been given access to the waters of the Persian Gulf, which was denied
to the Russians for two centuries and which was the basis of the Great Game, giving
Afghanistan its historic importance. China has achieved this in no time, thanks to
Pakistan.

Thus Pakistan, with its newfound confidence in tackling the internal threat and in having
realised the primacy of its national interest, is embarking into the realms of a policy
away from opportunism, which was based on short term gains, both economic and
political, all thanks to democracy.

There is a tremendous strategic fallout to this for United States and its allies, which now
includes India, the greatest of which is the rescuing of Pakistan from the United States.
USA has benefitted more from its relationship with Pakistan then we have. It will take a
very long time for US to lose its relevance for Pakistan but the process has just begun.
With the signing of CPEC, Pakistans Foreign Policy is coming on its own. What India
has been doing is following the events. Mr Modis visit to Saudi Arabia, UAE and Iran is
indicative of this trend, that is to capitalise on Pakistans more independent stance.
Contrary to what has been said, throughout these events, the military and civil
establishments appear to have remained on the same page. It is not possible for such
decisions to be taken separately. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif learned his lesson early
when dealing with Mr Modi. There is nothing he could do to prevent him from coming to
Lahore. Detractors aside, all decisions appear to have been taken in unison. The
extraordinary huddle in the GHQ simply indicated that decisions cannot wait, as events
dont. They have to be taken. Mr Sartaj Azizs tone and tenor has left no doubt about
this.

The future holds many challenges. More pressure is coming. However, massive
Chinese investment will mark the beginning of reducing our economic reliance on the
US. The F-16s episode has set the ball rolling for moving away from military
dependence.

Pakistans Foreign Policy is getting aggressive. It has found its direction in CPEC.
Whether this was the right path to choose, only time will tell, but with a democratic setup
in place, it could not have been devoid of the peoples will. The key to this success will
be democracy and the personal integrity of our political leadership.

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