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HOLSTI, Ole R. Theories of International Relations. Arquivo digital.

O estudo das relaes internacionais como a convergncia entre a histria e a cincia


poltica. p. 1
Objetivo. This essay is an effort to contribute further to an exchange of ideas between the
two disciplines by describing some of the theories, approaches, and models political
scientists have used in their research on international relations during recent decades. p. 2

Realismo

Autores principais. Entre outros, E. H. Carr (historiador), Nicholas Spykman (gegrafo),


Hans Morgenthau (cientista poltico). p. 3
Cinco paradigmas. Although realists do not constitute a homogeneous school [] most of
them share at least five core premises about international relations. p. 4
1. Causas da guerra e paz. [] To begin with, they view as central questions the causes of
war and the conditions of peace. p. 4
2. Structural anarchy. Structure of the international system is a necessary if not always
sufficient explanation for many aspects of international relations. According to classical
realists, structural anarchy, or the absence of a central authority to settle disputes, is the
essential feature of the contemporary system, and it gives rise to the security dilemma: in
a self-help system one nations search for security often leaves its current and potential
adversaries insecure, any nation that strives for absolute security leaves all others in the
system absolutely insecure, and it can provide a powerful incentive for arms races and
other types of hostile interactions. Este o motor para o conflito entre as naes, o que,
portanto, os realistas vm como natural. p. 4
3. Estados soberanos. Os atores centrais no sistema internacional so os Estados
soberanos, geograficamente delimitados e definidos. p. 4
4. Comportamento racional. Os Estados agem racionalmente, guided by the logic of the
national interest, usually defined in terms of survival, security, power, and relative
capabilities. pp. 4-5
5. O Estado como ator individual. Finally, the state can also be conceptualized as a
unitary actor. Apenas residualmente as questes internas influem na poltica externa, ou
seja, o Estado tratado como uma caixa preta black box em que no possvel, ou
no interessa, os seus determinantes polticos internos. p. 5
O realismo a teoria dominante dos ltimos sessenta anos. p. 5
As crticas internas ao realismo so variadas.
Crtica natureza humana. O realismo assume o homo politicus como naturalmente mau.
Mas se a natureza m explica os conflitos e as guerras, como explicar a paz e
cooperao? Enfoque na estrutura do sistema: most modern realists have turned their
attention from human nature to the structure of the international system to explain state
behavior. pp. 5-6
Crtica aos conceitos e aos pressupostos. Os crticos vm contradies no uso de
conceitos como poder, interesse nacional e equilbrio de poder, especialmente quando
usados de forma prescritiva e descritiva. Basta ver a necessria diferena entre poder
como capacidade e opes usveis: muitas vezes o poder nuclear no uma opo
usvel.
A crtica ao realismo levou alguns autores a buscar maior preciso em outras cincias,
principalmente na cincia econmica. Ver Morton Kaplan e outros. p. 7
Kenneth Waltz. Theory of International Politics is the most prominent effort to develop a
rigorous and parsimonious model of modern or structural realism. O livro se apoia
bastante nas ideias da microeconomia. Waltz afirma que teoria da guerra tem que ter trs
nveis: 1. Teorias da natureza humana; 2. Atributos dos Estados; 3. Sistema. Waltz
desenvolve sua teoria sobre trs fundamentos que definem a estrutura do sistema
internacional: 1. O sistema ordenado (ordered): Estados iguais num sistema anrquico;
2. Os Estados soberanos, num sistema anrquico, agem de forma similar, horizontal; 3.
Distribuio das capacidades no sistema. Como os dois primeiros fundamentos raramente
mudam, o foco de Waltz na distribuio das capacidades. pp. 7-9
Crticas a Waltz. As principais crticas a Waltz focaram-se em quatro itens: interests and
preferences, system change, misallocation of variables between the system and unit levels,
and an inability to explain outcomes. Ver pgina 9 e seguintes. p. 9
Robert Gilpin. Realista moderno. Leva em conta as crticas feitas a Waltz, focando, assim,
na dinmica das mudanas do sistema. Sua teoria tem cinco proposies bsica,
baseadas na economia e na sociologia: 1. O equilbrio do sistema se mantm se nenhum
Estado ver vantagem em sua alterao; 2. Um Estado tentar mudar o equilbrio do
sistema se os benefcios esperados superarem os custos; 3. Um Estado tentar a
mudana (territorial, poltica, econmica, etc.) enquanto os benefcios marginais superarem
os custos marginais; 4. Chegando ao equilbrio da mudana, os custos para manter o
status quo tendem a aumentarem mais rpidos do que os recursos para tal; 5. Havendo
um desequilbrio devido redistribuio de poder, novas mudanas ocorrero at que o
equilbrio a distribuio relativa de capacidades. pp. 10-11

Global Society, Interdependece, Liberal Institutionalism

Crtica ao realismo. [] this discussion focuses on two common denominators; they all
challenge the first and third core propositions of realism identified earlier, asserting that
inordinate attention to the war/peace issue and the nation-state renders it an increasingly
anachronistic [too wedded to the past] model of global relations. p 11
Novas abordagens e enfoques. Abordagens: no esquecendo da guerra, aborda-se
tambm o bem-estar, a modernizao, o meio-ambiente, etc. Enfoque: [...] It is important
to stress that the potential for cooperative action arises from self-interest, not from some
utopian attribution of altruism to state leaders. p. 12
Novos atores. A ampliao da agenda, impossibilitando solues puramente nacionais.
[] Thus, although states continue to be the most important international actors, they
posses a declining ability to control their own destinies. The aggregate effect of actions by
multitudes of nonstate actors can have potent effects that transcend political boundaries,
desde os grandes atores (Exxon, OPEP, Al Qaeda, ONU) at os pequenos atores (ONGs,
indivduos agindo em massa, etc.). pp. 12-13
Realismo como ponto de partida. [] according to CS/CI/LI perspectives, analysts of a
partially globalized world may incorporate elements of realism (anarchy, self-interest,
rationality, etc.) as a necessary starting point, but these are not sufficient for an adequate
understanding. p. 13
Nuanas territoriais. Parte deste grupo pensa ser o fim do Estado-nao. Sendo prematura
esta concepo, percebe-se o surgimento de atores que disputam com o Estado a
lealdade dos indivduos. Desde grupos religiosos e tnicos at multinacionais e ONGs,
que muitas vezes agem internacionalmente, alm das fronteiras nacionais, em torno de
uma agenda de questes que vo muito alm dos assuntos de segurana. Ainda assim, a
relevncia do papel do Estado-nao nos dias atuais inquestionvel. pp. 14-15

Marxism, World Systems, Dependency

Rather than focusing on war and peace, these theories direct attention to quite different
issues, including uneven development, poverty, and exploitation within and between
nations. These conditions, arising from the dynamics of the modes of production and
exchange, and they must be incorporated into any analysis of intra- and inter-nation
conflict. p. 16
Sistema capitalista mundial. Os atores principais so as classes sociais e seus agentes.
Distino entre os pases da periferia e os do centro, com grande desigualdade da diviso
de trabalho entre eles, bem como dos ganhos e do usufruto da riqueza gerada, sempre em
favor do centro; relaes de dependncia. Reproduo interna das desigualdades externas
(ou vice-versa); unio terica das concepes internas e externas de poder. Ignora os
atores (Estado-nao) e as questes (segurana) tradicionais, bem como o nacionalismo.
nfase na perspectiva histrica. pp. 16-17
Desigualdade no desenvolvimento. Duas explicaes: 1. Geografia: dificuldades em lidar
com questes internas e econmicas; 2. Diferenas culturais: religio, moral, etc.. p. 18

Construtivismo

Apoio terico e epistemolgico nas cincias sociais. Tendncia ampliao da teoria. p. 18


Conceitos e abordagens. Principal concepo: [...] the environment in which states act
is social and ideational as well as material. Muitos conceitos e abordagens tradicionais
(anarquia, poder, segurana, inimigo, etc.) so vistos como construes sociais, e no
como uma estrutura determinada. [...] constructivism is less a theory than an approach. p.
19-20

Decision Making

[] Decision-making models challenge the premises that it is fruitful to conceptualize the


nation as a unitary rational actor whose behavior can adequately be explained by reference
to the system structure the second, fourth, and fifth realist propositions identified earlier
because individuals, groups, and organizations acting in the name of the state are also
sensitive to domestic pressures and constraints []. O interesse nacional se molda por
questes internas e externas. Viso do Estado oposta perspectiva do black box. pp. 20-
21
A paz democrtica (democratic peace). Estabelece que, while democracies are no less
likely to engage in wars, they do not fight each other. p. 21
Para o autor, a teoria decision-making fundamental para se compreender as relaes
internacionais. p. 22

Bureaucratic and organizational politics

Viso clssica. nfase na diviso do trabalho, na hierarquia e na centralizao, bem como


no saber, na racionalidade e na obedincia. Separao da poltica (decision making) e da
administrao (execuo). p. 22
Viso atual. [] The central premise is that decision making in bureaucratic organizations
is not constrained only by the legal e formal norms that are intended to enhance the rational
and eliminate the capricious aspects of bureaucratic behavior. There is an emphasis upon
rather than a denial of the political character of bureaucracies, as well as on other informal
aspects of organizational behavior. p. 22

Small group politics

Modelo suplementar dentro da perspectiva do decision-making que trata somente do


contexto de grupos pequenos (small-group). P. 25
Premissa: [...] the group is not merely the sum of its members []. p. 25
Fundamentao na sociologia e na psicologia social. p. 25
Autores. Irving Janis. p. 26

Individual leaders

[] focus on the individual policymaker, emphasizing the gap between the demands of
the classical of rational decision making and the substantial body of theory and evidence
about various constraints that come into play in even relatively simple choice situations.
pp. 26-27
Suporte na psicologia cognitiva. p. 27
[...] Efforts to include information-processing behavior of the individual decision maker
have been directed at the cognitive and motivational constraints that, in varying degrees,
affect the decision-making performance []. p. 27
Trs concepes de decision-maker importantes para RI. Bounded rationalist: seeks
satisfactory rather than optimal solutions. A racionalidade humana no abarca toda a
complexidade dos problemas, no podendo resolv-los. Error prone intuitive scientist:
is likely to commit a broad range of inferential mistakes [] views the decision making as
the victim of flawed decision rules who uses data poorly. Domination forces: emphasizes
the forces that dominate the policymaker, forces that will not or cannot be controlled. []
These models direct the analysts attention to policymakers belief systems, images of
relevant actor, perceptions, information-processing strategies, heuristics, certain personality
traits [] and their impact on decision-making performance. pp. 27-28
Noes convergentes. Conformao: [] Policymakers have a propensity to assimilate
and interpret information in ways that conform to rather than challenge existing beliefs,
preferences, hopes, and expectations. Duplo padro: [] a tendency to explain the
adversarys behavior in terms of his characteristics [] rather than in terms of the context
or situation, while attributing ones own behavior to the latter rather than to the former.
Personalidade: Os traos de personalidade impactam a tomada de deciso. pp. 29-31

Post-modern challenges

What can we know? O ps-modernismo coloca em debate um problema epistemolgico,


sobre o que podemos ou no conhecer. [...] most post-modernists challenges the premise
that the social world constitutes an objective, knowable reality that is amenable to
systematic description and analysis. p. 32
[] all existing theories and methodologies are in the cross-hairs of post modern critics
[]. p. 32
Linguagem. [] the choice of language unjustifiably grants privileged positions to one
perspective or another. Thus, the task of the observer is to deconstruct texts (everything is
a text). p. 33
Aplicabilidade. Para o autor, o ps-modernismo pouco ajuda na anlise e na ao nas
relaes internacionais ao rejeitar todas as principais premissas tericas e metodolgicas
em voga, apesar de eventualmente iluminar o campo da cincia fazendo uma crtica da
imagem estabelecida do mtodo cientfico, como tambm trazendo tona teorias
abrangentes que na maioria das vezes so ignoradas. pp. 33-34

Concluso

At a very general level, this conclusion parallels that drawn three decades ago by the
foremost contemporary proponent of modern realism: The third image (system structure) is
necessary for understanding the context of international behavior, whereas the first and
second images (decision makers and domestic political processes) are needed to
understand dynamics within the system. But to acknowledge the existence of various levels
of analysis is not enough. What the investigator wants to explain and the level of specificity
and comprehensiveness to be sought should determine which level(s) of analysis are
relevant and necessary. In this connection it is essential to distinguish between two different
dependent variables: foreign policy decisions by states, on the one hand, and the outcomes
of policy and interactions between two or more states, on the other. pp. 36-37
VOLTAR DEPOIS A ESTA CONCLUSO PARA UMA MELHOR COMPREENSO E
ANLISE.