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Bo Sanchez
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Looking Ahead
By Mike Vias
So far in the year, the market has performed well against expectations as risk factors seen at the beginning of
the year did not materialize and as our economy surprisingly grew.
COL Research and TRC expect that the Philippine economy as well as the stock market will continue to be strong
in the next six years under the Duterte Administration. The new government inherited a very strong balance sheet
from the Aquino administration defined by low debt levels, positive primary balance, and low cost of debt. It also
inherited an abundant pipeline of projects that only needs execution. There are 14 Public Private Partnership (PPP)
projects in the bidding stage, and five that only need NEDA board approval.
The current administration also announced an action-oriented 10-point socio-economic agenda, where they
showed plans on how they will capitalize on several growth opportunities in the country. Last year, the Philippine
just entered the demographic window, a period of rapid economic growth driven by the expansion of the productive
population to more than 55 percent of the entire population. This is expected to last for 40 years until 2055. Our
country is also largely a domestically-driven economy. This makes it less vulnerable to external developments.
Furthermore, the country still has room to grow investments as capital formation remains at low levels in comparison
to other ASEAN nations.
However, the market is susceptible to a correction in the short term. Given governments plan to cut taxes and
increase spending on infrastructure, it is possible that the countrys budget deficit might go higher. This could possibly
lead to a downgrade in the countrys credit rating. In addition, valuations (stock prices) are no longer attractive with
the PSEi currently trading much higher compared to its corporate earnings (20X Price-Earnings Ratio by end of 2016).
Also, potential upside for COLs end of 2017 PSEi target has become limited. This makes the market vulnerable to sell-
offs with the assumption that companies come out with disappointing earnings results. There is also an increased
likelihood of companies taking advantage of high levels of prices to raise capital through share placements. Lastly,
government spending growth may also slowdown in the short term. This is a normal occurrence when there is a new
administration.
These possible corrections are opportunities to buy our SAM stocks at low prices for its positive long-term
growth outlook. So continue to buy SAM stocks that are below its Buy Below Price regularly.
P.S. If you or a friend would like to learn more on the basics of investing in the stock market, I conduct free seminars
twice a month at the COL Financial Training Center. Here, I teach the basics of long-term investing in the Stock Market.
Heres our SAM and Mutual Fund Tables (as of September 7, 2016 closing).
Stock Current Price Buy Below Price Target Price Action to Take
Mike Vias is an Investment Trainer of COL Financial Group, Inc. He is a Certified Securities Representative and
Certified Investment Solicitor.
NAVPS WHEN
CURRENT NAVPS ESTIMATED
FUND CODE FUND BOUGHT ACTION TO TAKE
(08/19/16) RETURN
(01/12/16)
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Note: The percentage returns cannot be compared between the two tables below. The All Time Winners table does
not take into consideration a cost-averaging method. The percentage return is only from a buy-and-hold strategy. The
2015 Table however integrates a cost-averaging method throughout the months it was under the Buy-Below.
ESTIMATED
STOCK TIME PRICE ESTIMATED
STOCKS TIME
SYMBOL RECOMMENDED RANGE RETURN
HELD
May 2014 to September
Aboitiz Power AP 16 Months P36.40 to P43.40 21.32%
2015
February 2012 to
SM Prime Holdings SMPH 10 Months P12.48 to P17.00 27.75%
December 2012 (1st week)
P268.00 to
Meralco MER January 2013 to April 2013 3 Months 28.05%
P377.00
First Phlippine
FPH June 2011 to June 2013 25 Months P63.18 to P95.20 32.92%
Holdings
February 12 to October
JG Summit Holdings JGS 18 Months P25.75 to P43.50 39.96%
2013
February 2013 to April
D&L Industries DNL 14 Months P6.45 to P10.00 44%
2014
Banco De Oro BDO April 2013 to August 2014 16 Months P89.60 to P93.00 24%
May 2014 to September
Aboitiz Power AP 16 Months P36.40 to P43.40 21.32%
2015
(Disclaimer: Past performance doesnt guarantee that youll have the exact same results in the future. After all, your
earnings all depend on the markets performance.)