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1
For month ending February 28th, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Gold: +3.1% (February), +8.3% (QTD), +8.3% (YTD)
Investment Outlook Gold price, daily moving average (dma), and volume
Volume (rhs) Gold Price (lhs) 50 dma (lhs) 200 dma (lhs)
Gold rose 3.1% in February to $1248.3/ounce (oz). In our 2017 $1,400 $120,000
base case outlook, gold may rise to $1300/oz in the first half of $1,350
$100,000
Dec-16
Jun-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Sep-16
Feb-17
Feb-16
Oct-16
Mar-16
May-16
Apr-16
In a bearish scenario, the Fed may move more aggressively,
Jul-16
Aug-16
seeing the USD appreciate and bursting the bond market bubble
and pushing gold near the $1100/oz level. Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 02/29/16 to 02/28/17.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2016
2017
2014
2015
2009
2008
Pr ice ($/ounce)
Rates: Volatility in market rates saw the US 10yr Treasury yield $1,250
US Dollar Index
102
hit a 4 month low of 2.31% before ending February at 2.39% vs 100 $1,200
98 $1,150
2.45% the month prior, with real rates remaining range bound.
96
$1,100
94
USD: The dollar rose 1.6% in February, recovering some of the 92 $1,050
lost ground in January, as the market shifted focus back to the 90 $1,000
Fed as hawkish rhetoric and robust economic data remain
Feb-16
Feb-17
Apr-16
Nov-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Jan-17
Oct-16
Mar-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
May-16
9.4%
February saw weakest US Mint sales for bullion coins in 14 60% 7 .8% 7 .7 % 8.7 % 9.0% 8.9%
months as higher gold prices curtailed retail demand. 50%
2
For month ending February 28th, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Silver: +4.3% (February), +15.1 % (QTD), +15.1% (YTD)
Investment Outlook Silver price, daily moving average (dma), and volume
Volume (rhs) Silver Price (lhs) 50 dma (lhs) 200 dma (lhs)
Silver continued its year to date trend higher in February as it $22 $20,000
rose 4.3% to $18.3/oz with daily volume in silver front month $21 $18,000
(in first half of year) and improving manufacturing growth. $16 $8,000
$15 $6,000
Slowing mine production due to reduced capital expenditures $14 $4,000
may continue to be a tailwind for silver. As mining capital $13 $2,000
expenditure and investment continues to decline this should $12 $-
Dec-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Oct-16
May-16
Feb-17
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
further weigh on silver supply which has been in a supply deficit
for the past 11 years.
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 02/29/16 to 02/28/17.
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
2010
2015
2009
2008
70
Industrial Cycle: US industrial activity rose again in February
to 57.7 up from 56.2 in January (as measured by the 60
$1,050
Platinums discount relative to gold extended in February to $1,500
$1,000
18% or $224 per ounce. Platinum, which historically
$1,000
averaged a $132 premium to gold, continues its longest $950
lasting discount to gold for only the 4th time since 1976. $900
$500
$850
An expected balanced market with slight deficits in 2017 may
$800 $-
support prices, but remain tied to demand from key markets
Jun-16
Dec-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Oct-16
May-16
Feb-17
Feb-16
Mar-16
Jul-16
Apr-16
Aug-16
for diesel engines and jewelry globally.
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 02/29/16 to 02/28/17.
2010
2011
2012
2014
2015
2016
2013
2017
2008
1450
sales rose slightly by 0.7% from December (up 10% year over 1050
year), while total European vehicles sales fell 12% in January. 0.06 950
850
Chinese Consumer: Consumer retail sales in China rose
0.05 750
0.1% to 10.9% in December year over year as further signs of
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Apr-15
Apr-16
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
4
For month ending February 28th, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Palladium: +2.2% (February), +13.2% (QTD), +13.2% (YTD)
Investment Outlook Palladium price, daily moving average (dma), and volume
Volume (rhs) Palladium Price (lhs) 50 dma (lhs) 200 dma (lhs)
$800 $1,400
Palladium rose for the 3rd consecutive month in February by
2.2% to $770.9/oz. Palladiums technicals remain the most $750
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Sep-16
Nov-16
Feb-16
Oct-16
May-16
Feb-17
Aug-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
infrastructure spending and recovery in global growth.
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 02/29/16 to 02/28/17.
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2012
2010
2008
2009
fell by 18% helping spur price volatility this month.
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 12/31/07 to 02/28/17.
in January from the month prior to 2.2 million. In the US, $800 120
total auto sales rose 16.5% in February from last month to $750 115
Price (US$/ounce)
$700 110
1.33 million versus 1.13 million in January.
Index level
$650 105
Market Balance: Expected continued supply deficits, $600 100
growing demand, and drawdowns in above ground stocks $550 95
have kept the market balance for palladium favorable. $500 90
$450 85
Industrial Metals: Palladiums correlation to industrial $400 80
metals (0.57) is the highest among precious metals and the Feb-17
Feb-16
Nov-16
Apr-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Jan-17
Jul-16
Dec-16
Mar-16
Sep-16
Jan-16
May-16
Oct-16
5
For month ending February 28th, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Important Risks
The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are as of the date of this report. All information is historical and not indicative of
future results and subject to change. Reader should not assume that an investment in any securities and/or precious metals mentioned was or would
be profitable in the future. This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The ETFS Silver Trust, ETFS Gold Trust, ETFS Platinum Trust, ETFS Palladium Trust and ETFS Precious Metals Basket Trust are
not investment companies registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 or a commodity pool for purposes of the
Commodity Exchange Act. Shares of the Trusts are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds. These
investments are not suitable for all investors. Trusts focusing on a single commodity generally experience greater volatility.
Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. Trusts focusing on a single commodity generally experience
greater volatility. Please refer to the prospectus for complete information regarding all risks associated with the Trusts. Shares in the Trusts are not
FDIC insured and may lose value and have no bank guarantee.
The value of the Shares relates directly to the value of the precious metal held by the Trust and fluctuations in the price could materially adversely
affect investment in the Shares. Several factors may affect the price of precious metals, including:
A change in economic conditions, such as a recession, can adversely affect the price of the precious metal held by the Trust. Some metals are
used in a wide range of industrial applications, and an economic downturn could have a negative impact on its demand and, consequently,
its price and the price of the Shares;
Investors expectations with respect to the rate of inflation;
Currency exchange rates;
interest rates;
Investment and trading activities of hedge funds and commodity funds; and
Global or regional political, economic or financial events and situations. Should there be an increase in the level of hedge activity of the
precious metal held by the trust or producing companies, it could cause a decline in world precious metal prices, adversely affecting the
price of the Shares. Should there be an increase in the level of hedge activity of the precious metal held by the Trusts or producing
companies, it could cause a decline in world precious metal prices, adversely affecting the price of the shares.
Also, should the speculative community take a negative view towards the precious metal held by the Trusts, it could cause a decline in prices,
negatively impacting the price of the shares. There is a risk that part or all of the Trusts physical precious metal could be lost, damaged or stolen.
Failure by the Custodian or Sub-Custodian to exercise due care in the safekeeping of the precious metal held by the Trusts could result in a loss to the
Trusts.
The Trusts will not insure its precious metals and shareholders cannot be assured that the custodian will maintain adequate insurance or any
insurance with respect to the precious metals held by the custodian on behalf of the Trust. Consequently, a loss may be suffered with respect to the
Trusts precious metal that is not covered by insurance.
Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors.
Please refer to the prospectus for complete information regarding all risks associated with the Trust.
Investors buy and sell shares on a secondary market (i.e., not directly from Trusts). Only market makers or authorized
participants may trade directly with the Trusts, typically in blocks of 50k to 100k shares.
Commodity definitions: ETFS Physical Precious Metals Basket Index reflects the daily performance of a basket with the following components and ratios: gold
(0.030oz), silver (1.100oz), platinum (0.004oz) and palladium (0.006oz). Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is a broadly diversified commodity price
index. Futures contract = agreement traded on an organized exchange to buy or sell assets at a fixed price but to be delivered and paid for later. Long position =
buying of an asset with the expectation the asset will rise in value. Short position = sale of a borrowed asset with the expectation that the asset will fall in value.
Spot price = current market price at which an asset is bought or sold for immediate payment and delivery.
Index definitions: S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks selected by the Standard & Poors Index Committee designed to represent the
performance of the leading industries in the U.S. economy. MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index is an equity index that captures large and midcap
representation across Emerging Markets countries. Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark measuring investment grade, US
dollar, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of
foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of US trade partners' currencies. The Euro/US Dollar exchange rate is the relative pricing of the euro (the
official currency of the European Union) and the US dollar. The US Dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate is the relative pricing of the yen (the official currency of
Japan) and the US dollar. The HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index is designed to be representative of the overall composition of the hedge fund universe. Year
over year = the percent change over a full calendar year. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket
of consumer goods and services; headline includes all categories while core excludes food and energy. South African Rand (ZAR) = official currency of South
Africa. The Purchasing Manufacturing PMI Index (PMI) is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. Producer Price index (PPI)
measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total value of goods
produced and services provided in a country during one year.
Entity definitions: The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central banking system of the United States of America. COMEX = the primary market for trading metals
such as gold, silver, copper and aluminium. NYMEX = New York Mercantile Exchange.
Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. This material must be accompanied or preceded by the
prospectus. Carefully consider each Trusts investment objectives, risk factors, and fees and expenses before investing. Please
click here to view the prospectus.
ALPS Distributors, Inc. is the marketing agent for ETFS Silver Trust, ETFS Gold Trust, ETFS Platinum Trust, ETFS Palladium
Trust and ETFS Precious Metals Basket Trust.
Maxwell Gold is a registered representative of ALPS Distributors, Inc.
ETF001123 02/28/18