Meteorological warning system

in Poland
(current state and plans for the future)

Julianna Drodyska
Piotr Maczak

30.09.2016
The existing warning system
WEATHER FORECAST AND WARNING SYSTEM types of information
I. Preliminary information: weather forecasts for 7 days
daily short-term forecasts (for 2 days) and mid-term forecasts (for the next 5 days)
fixed time of issue
II. Approximate information: forecast of a dangerous meteorological phenomena for 3 days
daily
fixed time of issue
III. Warning information: warning message
up to 48 hours (heat wave and hard frost warnings can last longer)
issued depending on weather situation, no earlier than 24 h before phenomenon beginning
IV. Post-warning information:
connected with specified warnings, sometimes issued without a warning
state as observed
forecast up to 3 hours

I. 168 h
II. 72 h
III. 48 h*
IV. 3h
WEATHER FORECAST AND WARNING SYSTEM phenomena location

Warning and post-warning information

worked out for:
16 voivodeships
46 subregions
18 voivodeships' capital cities

Subregions groups of smaller

administrative units or geographical
regions (e.g. mountains, coast) defined
for more accurate phenomena location
 Hazard Level Hazard Level
Phenomenon Phenomenon
1 2 3 1 2 3

Strong wind 1 2 3 Heavy snow 1 2 3

Icing 1 - - Freezing precipitation 1 2 3

Ground frost 1 - - Blowing or drifting snow 1 2 -

Melting snow 1 2 3 Dense fog 1 2 -

Heat wave 1 2 3 Intense freezing fog 1 2 -

Hard frost 1 2 3 Thunderstorm/

Thunderstorm 1 - -
with hail

Heavy rain 1 2 3 Heavy thunderstorm/

Heavy thunderstorm - 2 3
with hail
Snowfall 1 - -
The current criteria for meteorological warnings
1. The criteria for yellow warnings (1 hazard level):

have the formal legal regulation The Regulation of the Ministry of Environment
IMWM participated in the development of the criteria (more than 20 years ago)
current regulations require more or less radical changes of the criteria
for the most phenomena from the list

2. The criteria for orange and red warnings (2 and 3 hazard level):

have been developed by the IMWM

are based on experts' experience and climatological data overview
are modified in cooperation with end users, if it is needed
Strong wind

1 hazard level
15 m/s < average wind speed 20 m/s
20 m/s < wind gusts 25 m/s
2 hazard level
20 m/s < average wind speed 25 m/s
25 m/s < wind gusts 32 m/s
3 hazard level
average wind speed > 25 m/s
wind gusts > 32 m/s

Remarks or planned modifications:

spatial diversity necessary to be included
impact analysis taken into account
Heat wave

1 hazard level
Tmax 30C
lasting 2 or 3 days
2 hazard level
Tmax 30C
lasting 4 or 5 days
3 hazard level
Tmax 30C
lasting more than 5 days

Remarks or planned modifications:

under development in cooperation
with biometeorologists
Heavy rain

Total precipitation (R) in mm during the period up to 24 hours:

1 hazard level
30 mm R < 50 mm
2 hazard level
50 mm R < 90 mm
3 hazard level
R 90 mm

Remarks or planned modifications:

the first consultations were held with hydrologists,
they agree that these criteria should be changed
Thunderstorm/thunderstorm with hail
1 hazard level
a) 20 mm < R 30 mm, locally possible 40 mm
b) or/and 20 m/s < wind gusts 25 m/s

Heavy thunderstorm/heavy thunderstorm with hail

2 hazard level
a) 30 mm < R 50 mm, locally possible 60 mm
b) or/and 25 m/s < wind gusts 32 m/s
3 hazard level
a) R > 50 mm
b) or/and wind gusts > 32 m/s

R precipitation during thunderstorm

Remarks or planned modifications:

these criteria are not expected to be changed
Hard frost
1 hazard level
-15C* < Tmin -25C
2 hazard level
-30C < Tmin -25C
3 hazard level
T min -30C

Remarks or planned modifications:

* -15C threshold on request of Crisis Management
Center; -20C according to legal regulations
Changes are planned to be discussed with:
the Medical College in Cracow with experts from
the Institute of Anaesthesiology, who have great
experience in bringing out a human body from the
state of hypothermia
Crisis Management Centre they are responsible
for helping the homeless
Heavy snow Snowfall beyond the winter season

1 hazard level 1 hazard level

10 cm E <15 cm / 12 h or 5 cm E <10 cm / 12 h or
15 cm E 20 cm / 24 h 10 cm E 15 cm / 24 h
2 hazard level
below 600 m AMSL 20 cm < E 30 cm / 24 h
above 600 m AMSL 20 cm < E 50 cm / 24 h
3 hazard level
below 600 m AMSL E > 30 cm / 24 h
above 600 m AMSL E > 50 cm / 24 h

E snow accumulation (cm)

Remarks or planned modifications:

criteria change in cooperation with representatives of
General Director for National Roads
Blowing or drifting snow

requires unstable dry snow cover

depends on wind speed
requires precipitation when declaring blowing snow warning

1 hazard level
8 m/s < average wind speed 11 m/s
and/or 15 m/s < wind gusts 20 m/s
2 hazard level
average wind speed > 11 m/s
and/or wind gusts >20 m/s
Freezing precipitation

Freezing drizzle or freezing rain occurs in a given area in a period of time (T):

1 hazard level
T < 12 h
2 hazard level
12 h T 24 h
3 hazard level
T > 24 h
Atmospheric icing

1 hazard level
Lowering of the temperature below <0C causing (in a widespread area*)
freezing of wet surface after rainfall, sleet or wet snow fall.

* spatial coverage greater than 50% of the area forecast to be affected by

the phenomenon

Remarks or planned modifications:

criteria change in cooperation with representatives
of General Director for National Roads
Melting snow

Rise in the air temperature from negative to positive in a given area with snow cover
of at least 10 cm causing melting of snow, when:

1 hazard level 2 hazard level

T > 0C / 48 h T > 0C / 24 h
Ts 5C Ts > 1,5C
or 10 mm < R 20 mm / 24 h
T > 0C / 48 h
Ts 1,5C 3 hazard level
R 10 mm / 24 h T > 0C / 24 h
Ts > 1,5C
R > 20 mm / 24 h
Ts average daily temperature
T air temperature (at 2 m above ground)
R rainfall
Ground frost

1 hazard level
Change in the air temperature (at 2 m above ground) from positive to negative
during early growth of plants in spring:
minimum temperature at 2 m above ground Tmin < 0C
average daily temperature Ts > 0C

Remarks or planned modifications:

current thresholds were discussed with experts
in the field of agrometeorology
Dense fog / rime fog

Fog in a widespread area lasting more than 8 hours with visibility limited to:

1 hazard level
200 m > V > 50 m
2 hazard level
V < 50 m

V - visibility
Impact base warning products
Daily danger phenomena forecasts Daily threat forecasts
for 72 h for 72 h
Types of impact in combination with the dangerous
phenomena threat risk (low/1, moderate/2, high/3)

Examples:

Damage to overhead power lines

strong wind, heat wave, thunderstorms, heavy snow, frost

Considerable damage to infrastructure, buildings

strong wind, thunderstorms, heavy rain

Significant difficulties in traffic flow

heavy rain, heavy snow, strong wind, thunderstorms

Flood
heavy rain, melting snow

Heat wave posing danger to human health and life

high air temperature

Threat forecasts are worked out for Government Centre

for Security (RCB)
 The new approach to the criteria
of warning messages an example
Heat wave warnings impact-base criteria:

Investigated on the base of climatological data and using statistical methods

The number of elements taken into account increased minimum temperature,
differentiation in value of maximum temperature

Current criteria for heat wave warnings New criteria for heat wave warnings

Warning Max temp Min temp Days Warning Max temp Min temp
level [C] [C] level [C] [C] Days

1 30 - 2-3 1 30 < 18 2
2 30 - 4-5 2 30-33 18 2
3 30 - >5 3 34 18 2
How have these criteria been investigated?

Minimum temperature 18C

Thermal criterion of 18C minimum temperature has been determined based on the average
monthly air temperature in July in Poland, and biometeorological literature studies (according
to researches, 18C is a threshold below which human body is able to regenerate at night
during heat wave period)
1 hazard level with minimum temperature < 18C there is a night break for human
body regeneration
for 2 and 3 hazard levels during nights with minimum temperature 18C human
body doesnt manage to regenerate

A minimum 2 days heat wave duration

Based on literature studies (one-day heat
wave does not cause discomfort for human body)
Maximum temperature criteria
Data base: 1980 2015
Number of cases with max temp > 30C: 3011
Statistic assessment:
A. Percentiles method:
I group below 33 percentil: from 30C to 31,9C
II group betwen 33 a 66 percentil: from 32C to 33,9C
III group above 66 percentil: 34C

B. Cluster analysis algorithm k-means:

Sorted data are divided into as many groups as we want (3 groups in this case), then
we set their centre of gravity and assign each data item to the nearest center of gravity
The results:
I group: from 30C to 31,9C
II group: from 32C to 33,9C
III group: 34C
What else could be done?
Investigation of spatial differences of phenomena based on the climatological data
in order to differentiate criteria for individual areas
Use the statistical methods to create separate criteria for each region
Collect information about impact of danger phenomena in combination
with their intensity

But
We have to find the anwser to the question:

Are our end users willing to engage in the process of modifying

current warning criteria and are they ready for such changes?

A good opportunity to find the answer are our annual meetings with end users.
 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

Piotr Maczak
Weather Forecast Office
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Branch Wroclaw
piotr.manczak@imgw.pl