YIELD CURVE:

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-
rates/Pages/Historic-Yield-Data-Visualization.aspx

http://intermarketanalysisblog.com/order-ia-book/

1. ng cong li sut tri phiu Yield Curve l g?

Trong ti chnh, ng li sut tri phiu (yield curve) l ng cong th hin cc

mc li sut khc nhau i vi cc hp ng n ging nhau nhng c k hn
khc nhau, v d: 2 thng, 2 nm, 20 nm, v.v ng cong ny biu din mi
quan h gia li sut (chi ph i vay) v k hn hp ng vay (thi gian cho vay
i vi khon n Time to Maturity[thi gian o hn]), bi mt ngi i vay
di mt loi tin t no .

V d: li sut la M phi tr i vi tri phiu kho bc M (U.S Treasury

securities) i vi cc k hn vay khc nhau c rt nhiu nh giao dch theo
di, thng c v trn biu gi l ng cong li sut tri phiu (yield
curve).

ng cong li sut tri phiu c s dng bi nhng nh phn tch tri phiu
nm bt cc iu kin ca th trng ti chnh v tm kim c hi giao dch.
Nhng nh kinh t hc s dng ng ny nghin cu cc iu kin kinh t.

2. Cc loi ng cong li sut tri phiu

Khng c mt loi ng cong li sut tri phiu nht nh cho mi i tng i

vay. Yu t quan trng nht xc nh mt ng cong li sut tri phiu l
tin t m tri phiu nim yt. iu kin kinh t ca quc gia v nhng cng
ty s dng loi tin t cng l yu t c bn xc nh ng cong li sut
tri phiu.
Cc nh ch khc nhau vay mn cc mc li sut khc nhau, ty thuc vo
mc tn nhim ca chng. Ty vo mc tn nhim m ngi ta phn loi ra
lm 3 loi ng li sut dnh cho 3 i tng khc nhau:

+ ng li sut tri phiu chnh ph (government curve): y l ng li sut

tri phiu do chnh ph pht hnh bng ng tin quc gia.

+ ng LIBOR: y l ng li sut tri phiu do cc ngn hng vi mc tn

nhim cao (Aa/AA hoc cao hn) vay mn ln nhau, theo li sut LIBOR. ng
LIBOR thng nm trn ng li sut tri phiu chnh ph bi mc tn nhim
ca cc nh ch i vay nh ngn hng thng thp hn ca chnh ph.

ng LIBOR l ng li sut quan trng nht, c s dng rng ri th

trng ti chnh, v n cn c gi l ng cong hon i (Swap curve).

+ ng li sut tri phiu doanh nghip (corporate curve): l ng li sut tri

phiu do doanh nghip pht hnh. V cc doanh nghip c mc tn nhim thp
nht so vi chnh ph hoc cc nh ch nh ngn hng, ng li sut tri phiu
doanh nghip v th thng nm cao nht.

ng li sut tri phiu doanh nghip thng c nim yt theo mc chnh

lch tn nhim (credit spread) so vi ng cong hon i c cng k o hn.
V d: ng li sut tri phiu k hn 5 nm do Vodafone pht hnh c th c
yt li sut theo dng: LIBOR + 0,25%, (0,25% thng c gi l 25 im c
bn (basic points) hoc 25bps), trong 25bps l mc chnh lch tn nhim.

* ng cong li sut tri phiu thng thng (Normal Yield Curve):

c im:

+ dc dng (li sut tng khi k o hn tng) th trng k vng kinh t

tng trng trong tng lai, i km vi lm pht tng cao, v vy nh u t i
hi li sut vi k hn vay di hn phi cao hn so vi ngn hn.
* ng cong li sut tri phiu dc ng (Steep Yield Curve):

c im:

+ dc ng. Thng thng, li sut tri phiu chnh ph k hn 20 nm

thng cao hn 2% so vi li sut tn phiu k hn 3 thng (T-bills). Khi chnh
lch ny tng ln, nn kinh t c k vng l tng trng nhanh hn trong
tng lai.

ng li sut tri phiu dc ng thng bo hiu chu k kinh t m rng, hoc

kt thc mt k suy thoi. V th, li sut s tng mnh ln khi nhu cu vn
ti thit kinh t tng mnh.

* ng li sut tri phiu phng (Flat Yield Curve)

c im:

+ Nm ngang, do li sut tri phiu cc k hn khc nhau u bng nhau. y

l du hiu kinh t khng n nh.

* ng li sut tri phiu bu (Humped Yield Curve):

c im:

+ Li sut ngn v di hn nh nhau, trong khi li sut trung hn tng cao hn

(ng li sut c hnh dng nh mt ci bu).

* ng cong li sut ngc (Inverted Yield Curve)

c im:

+ Li sut di hn gim dn so vi ngn hn, thng do th trng k vng kinh

t s tng trng chm li trong tng lai, hoc suy thoi.

3. Gii thch hnh dng ng cong li sut tri phiu bng c s no?
C 3 thuyt gii thch hnh dng ca ng li sut tri phiu.

* Thuyt k vng th trng (Market Expectation Theory / Pure

Expectation Theory)

Thuyt ny gi nh tri phiu vi cc k hn cho vay khc nhau c th thay th

hon ho cho nhau, v hnh dng ca ng cong li sut ph thuc vo k vng
ca ngi tham gia v li sut tng lai. S dng gi thuyt ny, cc mc li sut
tng lai, cng vi gi thuyt c hi kinh doanh chnh lch gi (arbitrage) l
thp nht th trng tng lai, v li sut tng lai c tnh ton khch quan
ca li sut giao ngay trong tng lai, chng ta hon ton c th xy dng c
ng cong li sut tri phiu k vng.

Cng thc:

V d: Nu li sut hin ti l 5%, v nh u t k vng li sut k hn 1 nm

nm ti l 6%, li sut k hn 2 nm thi im hin ti c th tnh t thuyt
ny l: ((1 + 5%)*(1+6%))^(1/2) 1 = 5.5%.

Li sut tri phiu di hn c tnh t trung bnh nhn (khai cn) ca li sut
cc tri phiu c k hn ngn hn. Thuyt ny gii thch hon ho cho nhng
quan st v li sut din bin cng chiu vi nhau. Tuy nhin, thuyt ny khng
th gii thch c tnh nht qun ca ng cong li sut tri phiu.

Thuyt ny cn hn ch im n pht l cc ri ro pht sinh khi u t tri

phiu (v li sut k hn thng khng gii thch trit li sut tng lai), l:
ri ro li sut (khi li sut th trng thay i) v ri ro li sut ti u t (u t
li sut cung phiu cc mc li sut ti u t khc nhau).

* Thuyt phn b thanh khon (Liquidity Premium Theory)

Thuyt ny c pht trin t Thuyt K vng th trng. Thuyt phn b thanh

khon cho rng li sut di hn khng ch phn nh nhng gi nh ca nh u
t v li sut tng lai, m cn bao gm phn bi thng cho vic nm gi tri
phiu c k hn di hn (nhng nh u t thch nm gi tri phiu ngn hn
hn l tri phiu di hn), gi l phn b thanh khon (liquidity premium). Phn
b ny b p cho nh u t nhng ri ro tng ln khi phi nh i vic lu gi
cc loi tri phiu c k hn di hn, bao gm c ri ro bin ng gi tri phiu
ln hn. V phn bi thng ny m li sut tri phiu di hn thng cao hn so
vi li sut tri phiu ngn hn, v dc ca ng cong li sut tri phiu v
th cng dc hn. Li sut tri phiu k hn di hn cn cao hn khng ch bi
phn b thanh khon, m cn bi ri ro i km nh ri ro v n bi nm gi tri
phiu trong di hn.

Khi kt hp vi thuyt k vng th trng, cng thc tnh li sut tri phiu k
hn n nm l:

vi: l phn b thanh khon khi u t vo tri phiu k hn n nm.

* Thuyt phn khc th trng (Market Segmentation Theory)

Theo thuyt ny, cc cng c ti chnh vi cc k hn u t khc nhau khng

th thay th c cho nhau. V th, cung cu ca th trng dnh cho tri phiu
ngn v di hn c xc nh kh c lp. Nhng nh u t tim nng quyt
nh trc liu h c nhu cu vi loi tri phiu c k hn ngn hay di. Nu nh
u t thch mt danh mc thanh khon, h s c xu hng nm gi cc cng c
u t ngn hn hn l cc cng c u t di hn. Do , th trng dnh cho
cc cng c u t ngn hn s c cu cao hn, lm gi tng v li sut i hi
t nh u t cng thp hn. iu ny gii thch kh tt khi li sut ngn hn
thng c xu hng thp hn li sut di hn, cng nh hnh dng ph bin ca
ng cong li sut tri phiu thng thng.

Tuy nhin, v cung cu ca hai th trng dnh cho tri phiu c k hn ngn v
di hn l khc nhau, thuyt ny khng th gii thch c mt s tht l li sut
c xu hng dch chuyn cng nhau (v d: dch chuyn ln hoc xung ca
ng cong li sut).

Ngoi ra, cn c Thuyt Thi quen a thch (Preferred Habitat Theory), l mt

cch gii thch khc t thuyt phn b thanh khon. Thuyt ny pht biu rng,
ngoi k vng li sut, mi nh u t c thi gian u t khc nhau, v th h
yu cu phn bi thng khi mua cc tri phiu nm ngoi k hn a thch ca
h, gi l thi quen (habitat).

Thuyt ny tin rng nhng nh u t ngn hn thng ph bin hn trn th

trng tri phiu, v th, li sut tri phiu di hn thng cao hn li sut tri
phiu ngn hn. Tuy nhin, thnh thong vn c trng hp ngc li.

Thuyt ny thng nht khi gii thch c hnh dng ca ng cong li sut tri
phiu thng thng, cng nh xu hng ca ng cong ny l dch chuyn ln
v xung, trong khi hnh dng khng i.

++++++++

1.
TH TRNG TRI PHIU (BOND MARKET)

TNG QUAN, NH NGHA V TH TRNG TRI PHIU

Th trng tri phiu (cn gi l th trng N hoc th trng tn dng) l

mt th trng ti chnh m nhng ngi tham gia c th pht hnh n mi, c
coi l th trng s cp, hoc mua v bn n chng khon c gi l th trng
th cp. iu ny thng l di hnh thc tri phiu.

Theo investopedia nh ngha Th trng Tri Phiu: Mt th trng m

trong vic pht hnh v giao dch chng khon ghi n din ra. Th
trng tri phiu ch yu bao gm cc t chnh ph v chng khon n
ca cng ty, to iu kin cho vic lun chuyn vn t ngi tit kim cho
ngi pht hnh hoc cc t chc huy ng vn cho cc d n ca ca
 chnh ph, m rng kinh doanh v cc hot ng ang din ra trn th
trng.

DEFINITION of Bond Market: The environment in which the issuance and

trading of debt securities occurs. The bond market primarily includes
government-issued securities and corporate debt securities, and facilitates the
transfer of capital from savers to the issuers or organizations requiring capital for
government projects, business expansions and ongoing operations.

Di con mt ca mt Trader th Tri Phiu thc cht l mt m danh t ca

N. Nh nh ngha trn Tri phiu c pht hnh ra vi mc ch l ghi n, v
nhng ngi pht hnh tri phiu thc cht l nhng con n. Ngi mua tri
phiu cng khng khc g mt ngi gi tit kim vi mc li sut no , ch
khc iu l m tri phiu c cng chng v m bo bi Chnh Ph, vy
nn kh nng x n l rt t ty vo mc tn nhim ca mi quc gia. Cng
chnh v c m bo bi Chnh Ph cho nn thng th nhng ngi u t vo
th trng tri phiu l nhng nh u t rt ln v dng vn h u t vo y
thng ln hn nhiu so vi cc th trng khc. Vy Chnh Ph ly ci g m
bo s tr c n nu mt mai ngi u t h ng lot rt tin v. c
th hn ch ri ro ny m cc Chnh Ph ngh ra cch hn mc k hn cho tri
phiu, v c khon li tc cao hn th ng nhin nhng ngi mua tri
phiu s phi chn hn mc k gi l nhiu nm, thng th hn mc trn 7 nm
c gi l tri phiu k hn di hn. Nhng bn cht thc ca N l g, ch ai
cho bn vay tin khi bn ch c ci g m bo c, Chnh Ph c ci g gn n
y: t ai, lnh th, con ngi, hay nhng ngun ti nguyn khong sn
khng th, khng th em bn nhng th gn n c, nu nh l n
quc ni (tc l n ca chnh ngi dn) th khng qu ng ngi v Chnh Ph c
th in tin tr c, nhng nu nh l N nc ngoi (tc l N buc phi
tr bng USD) th khng th no in tin quc ni ra c, m li cng khng th
mang giang sn t nc gn n, lm vy c khc g bn nc u. Do vy
ch c mt cch m Chnh Ph p dng chnh l em chnh nn kinh t ra th
chp, iu ny ngha l nu chnh ph k vng rng nn kinh t trong tng lai
s tng trng, GDP tng cao, tiu dng tng mnh v cc ngnh ngh sn xut
pht trin th lng tin THU thu c s v th m tng ln theo, iu ny
c ngha l CHNH PH ang dng chnh ngun tin thu c t THU m ngi
dn ng gp th chp. Nhng cho d l Chnh Ph pht hnh v c m
bo bi th ch, ch ca quc gia , th nhng khng c ngha l khng X
N nh. Kh nng X N c xt da trn mc tn nhim ca mi quc
gia. Nh c nu phn chng I th mc tn nhim ca Vit Nam hin ti l
BB-, kh l thp v iu ny c hiu th ny: quc gia no c mc tn
nhim cng thp th s tin li sut phi tr cho cc khon vay l cao hn, bi v
hiu nm na l mt bc nng dn v mt doanh nghip cng vay vn, th ng
nhin l ch doanh nghip s c tn nhim cao hn bi v kh nng tr c n
ca h l cao hn so vi bc nng dn kia. Nh bank hay c nhn hay bt k t
chc cho vay vn no cng vy thi, ch ai mun cho mt ngi vay m bit
rng kh nng tr n ca ngi l khng cao c.
 ni r hn v vn kh nng tr n chng ta s tm hiu th no l mc
tn nhim trc v ti sao quc gia cng giu, cng pht trin th s tin li
sut phi tr cho cc khon vay l cng thp v mc tn nhim ny c nh
gi nh th no. Kh nng tr n c nh gi bng mc tn nhim (Credit
rating).

Mt mc xp hng tn nhim l mt nh gi kh nng chi tr ca con n,

c bit l mt doanh nghip (cng ty) hay mt chnh ph, nhng khng phi l
ngi tiu dng c nhn. Vic nh gi c thc hin bi mt c quan xp hng
tn nhim v kh nng tr n ca con n . Nhng nh gi c gi l bo
co tn dng v thc hin bi vn phng tn dng, hoc cc c quan bo co tn
dng ca ngi tiu dng. Xp hng tn nhim c xc nh bi cc c quan xp
hng tn nhim. nh gi tn dng th hin nh gi ca c quan xp hng tn
nhim bng cc thng tin v nh lng cho mt cng ty hay chnh ph, bao gm
c thng tin thu c t bn ngoi bng nhng phn tch ca cc c quan xp
hng tn nhim. nh gi tn dng c s dng bi cc c nhn v thc th mua
cc tri phiu pht hnh bi cng ty v chnh ph xc nh kh nng chnh
ph s m bo c rng kh nng s khng X N ca nhng ngi mua tri
phiu .

1. a) Xp hng tn nhim quc gia: Mt s tn nhim l nh gi tn nhim

ca mt ch quyn thc th, V d: mt chnh ph quc gia. nh gi tn
nhim quc gia (vng lnh th c ch quyn) cho thy mc ri ro ca
mi trng u t ca mt t nc v c cc nh u t s dng khi
mun u t ra nc ngoi. Di y l bng nh gi mc tn nhim
ca quc gia: Cc bng xp hng ri ro quc gia nh gi c mc ri
ro tng th bao gm chnh tr, kinh t.

Trong thc t nhng quc gia nh Vit Nam chng ta tuy hn mc tn nhim
kinh t l khng cao nhng xt trn mt gc khc th Vit Nam li l quc gia
rt an ton v chnh tr tng i n nh. Do vy yu t trn s gp phn khng
nh trong vic xp loi hn mc tn nhim ca chng ta v cng chnh yu t
trn m ngun vn u t vo Vit Nam ang tng ln ng k trong nhng nm
gn y.

Sau khi tm hiu s b v cch xp hng hng mc tn nhim quc gia th

chng ta c th s b phn loi v c mt bng kh chi tit v hn mc tn
nhim ca phn ln cc quc gia trn th gii trong hnh v thng k di y
(Hnh 2.3)
Hnh 2.1: Bng xp hng mc tn nhim xp theo n v Quc gia (ngun:
internet)

Hnh 2.2: Bng so snh xp hng tn nhim quc gia ca 3 t chc hng u hin
nay.
Hnh 2.3: Thng k hn mc tn nhim quc gia ca cc quc gia trn th gii
c thc hin bi t chc Standar & Poor (thng k nm 2011)

Mt nh gi ngn hn l mt yu t xc xut ca mt c nhn ang mua

tri phiu vi k hn trong vng mt nm. iu ny tri ngc vi nh gi
di hn trong mt khong thi gian di. Trong cc t chc u t trong qu kh
rt thch xem xt xp hng hng mc tn nhim di hn tuy nhin ngy nay tnh
hnh kinh t thay i v nhng bin ng n vi tc nhanh hn, cc cuc
khng hong xy ra lp i lp li trong khong thi gian chng vi nm, do vy
ngy ny xp hng tn nhim thng s dng ngn hn.

1. b) Xp hng tn nhim doanh nghip: Xp hng tn nhim lin quan

n cc tp on, cc cng ty m nhng t chc, tp on, cng ty ny
pht hnh cng c ti chnh huy ng vn di hnh thc l tri phiu.
Cc nh gi v mc tn nhim ca doanh nghip c thc hin bi
cc t chc nh l: Standard & Poors , Moodys and Fitch Ratings. Cng
tng t nh cc nh gi mc tn nhim vi quc gia, th vi cc
doanh nghip cng c s dng cc ch ci A,B,C xp hng.

Vi mt doanh nghip c nh gi hn mc tn nhim cao hn tc l doanh

nghip c nng lc v ngha v p ng nhng cam kt v ti chnh ca
h, hay ni cch khc l nhng doanh nghip nh vy t b tc ng, tn thng
mi khi c nhng bin ng v xc xut h thanh ton cc khon n l cao.

V phn tri phiu doanh nghip thc s khng qu quan trng vi nhng
ngi giao dch trn th trng tin t, mt vi hng ha chnh v cc ch s
indices Do vy phn ny chng ta ch cn tm hiu c cu ca th trng tri
phiu v iu quan trng l ch vo mt vi quc gia ln nh M, Nht, China,
Lin minh EU Ngoi ra nhng hng mc khc trong th trng tri phiu chng
ta khng cn thit phi hiu su. Trong cc hng mc xp hng tn nhim ca
doanh nghip cng c 3 t chc Standard & Poors , Moodys and Fitch Ratings
nh gi, v hng mc tn nhim cng c da trn nhng ch ci A,B,C,D.
Hnh 2.4: Bng xp hng hng mc tn nhim doanh nghip c thu thp bi
3 t chc: Standard & Poors , Moodys and Fitch Ratings

LI TC TRI PHIU (YIELDS) L G? TI SAO NHNG QUC GIA C

HNG MC TN NHIM CNG CAO TH LI TC CNG GIM?

Trong phn trn chng ta ln lt tm hiu v bn cht, cu trc ca th

trng tri phiu, tuy nhin mi ch l b ni, cng chnh v th m trn Ti
nhn mnh l chng ta ch cn quan tm ti tri phiu ca mt vi quc gia c
hng mc tn nhim cao. L do l v th ny theo nh gi ca Standard & Poors
th hng mc tn nhim cng cao, tc l ngi vay c nhiu kh nng nht tr
n (chng hn nh M) v hng mc tn nhim cng thp (nh Vit Nam chng
hn) th nc no c uy tn cng cao tc l s c nhiu kh nng tr c n
nht v kh v n nht, m khi ri ro v n, x n cng thp th mc li sut s
cng thp. Nh v d v mt bc nng dn v mt doanh nghip vy, ng
nhin l doanh nghip s c vay vi mc li sut thp hn nhiu ri. Chnh v
nguyn l ny m li tc tri phiu ca nhng quc gia c hng mc tn nhim
cao nh M, Canada, Australia bao gi cng thp hn rt nhiu so vi nhng
quc gia khc. Ngha l th ny: khi chnh ph M pht hnh tri phiu th nhng
ngi dn mua tri phiu ca M s cm thy an ton hn, v iu ng
ngha rng khon li m h nhn c t chnh ph l thp hn. V y chnh l
yu t cn bn quyt nh ti Bond Yield.

Theo investopedia nh ngha: Li tc tri phiu

Ngun thu nhp trn % s vn b ra u t. y chnh l phn li hoc c tc

nhn c t mt tri phiu v thng c thanh ton hng nm nh l mt t
l % da trn chi ph u t, gi th trng hin ti hoc gi tr thc ca tri
phiu.

DEFINITION of Yield

The income return on an investment. This refers to the interest or dividends

received from a security and is usually expressed annually as a percentage
based on the investments cost, its current market value or its face value.

Yields (Li Tc) chnh l linh hn ca tri phiu, cho nn mi phn tch v tri
phiu u xut pht t phn tch li tc ca n. Thng th trong cc bi phn
tch Ti ly tri phiu hn mc trn 7 nm a vo tng nhn nh. Xt v tm
quan trng ca Tri phiu th s cn rt nhiu giy bt lm, hiu mt cch n
gin th th ny: Trong bt k t khng hong no (ly v d l t khng hong
gn y nht vo nm 2008), mc d nm 2008 khng hong bt u t s sp
th trng nh t ca M v sau lan rng ra khp th gii, khin cho th
trng ton cu ri vo chu k suy thoi ln nht t trc n nay, th trng
chng khon ton cu sp (ngay t nc nh b nh Vit Nam m th
trng chng khon cn bc hi tn hn 70%, lm pht tng ln gn 30% kia
m). y th nhng ti sao tm im ca cuc khng hong l M nhng tri
phiu ca M li tng mnh nht, lng tin vo tri phiu m rt ln. Ti sao
vy? Bi v nh c ni trn M c xp hng mc tn nhim rt cao, do vy d
c l tm im khng hong i na th ngi ta vn chy v vi tri phiu M, v
l bc tng thnh an ton nht (nhn quanh khp ni trn th gii th cng
ch c ni no an ton hn na) (Hnh 2.5). Trong v d ny thy c tri
phiu l mt bc tng thnh tr n mi khi c bin ng lin quan n ti
chnh, kinh t. Do khi chng ta quan st trn biu li tc tri phiu m n
gim t ngt th chnh l mt du hiu kh r nt bo trc rng sp ti s
c mt t sp ca th trng . Hay ni theo mt cch n gin mang y
cht kim hip: Tri phiu l mt th v kh va tn cng, va phng th.
gii thch r hn vn ny chng ta c th hiu n gin th ny: Khi th
trng Cm Nhn (k vng) v nn kinh t trong tng lai s tt hn, tc l nn
kinh t s tng trng, lc ny ngi ta s mnh dn vay n ( ni l Chnh Ph
v Doanh Nghip) s pht hnh thm tri phiu huy ng thm vn pht
trin t nc/doanh nghip. Khi m ai cng mun pht hnh tri phiu cho
ngi ta VAY (pht hnh tri phiu cho ngi dn mua huy ng vn) th s
khin cho hin tng d tha s lng tri phiu c pht hnh (d tha doanh
nghip mun VAY vn pht trin kinh doanh) th s gy nn tc ng l s ngi
cn VAY th nhiu m s ngi cho VAY th t (tc l kh m kim c ngi sn
sng mua tri phiu). Vy iu g s xy ra: Cc Bn tng tng nh khi mnh
mun vay tin chng hn, th trc tin phi i KIM ci nh Bng no m li
sut thp nht vay, ai di g vay li sut cao, tuy nhin l iu m nhng
ngi i vay mong mun, nhng nh Bng th khng thch vy, h mun cho vay
vi li sut cao hn kia, nhng m gi chn c Khch hng th nht nh
phi gim li sut cnh tranh ch. ng khng?

Hnh 2.5: US 10 years Bond Yields d bo trc s sp ca th trng chng

khon M giai on u ca cuc khng hong nm 2008.

Tip theo nh: Trong v d trn l phn nh tri ngc so vi ci chng ta

ang tm hiu v hin tng D THA s ngi i VAY m li thiu NGI CHO
VAY. Ni gn li th th ny khi m Chnh Ph/Doanh Nghip pht hnh qu nhiu
tri phiu ra th trng, m ai cng mun bn c cng nhanh cng tt v bn
c vi gi cao (tc l gi tr tri phiu h pht hnh ra s cao) nhng l kh ni
l s lng ngi mun mua tri phiu kim li nhun t li tc th t, v th
nn cnh tranh v mong mun tm kim c thm nhiu nh u t chu
mua tri phiu th h Chnh Ph/Doanh Nghip s phi nng mc li tc ln, tc
l chp nhn tr cho ngi mua tri phiu khon li tc cao hn, c lm nh th
ngi ta mi chu mua tri phiu ch. Trong trng hp ny. Yields tng cao phn
nh NIM TIN vo nn kinh t tt hn trong tng lai.

Mt trng hp khc l gii vic gi tri phiu l th ti sn phng th l v:

Nh c nh ngha trn Tri Phiu l mt m danh t ca N, v t tri phiu
c m bo bi Chnh Ph/Doanh Nghip, n khc vi c phiu ch C Phiu
l mt hnh thc u t m ngi u t gp vn lm n chung vi cng
ty/doanh nghip, cn ngi mua tri phiu li tng t nh mt ngi cho cng
ty/doanh nghip/chnh ph vay mn s tin ca mnh. Bi v bn cht l gp
vn lm n chung cho nn nhng ngi u t c phiu c th kim c nhng
mn li nhun cc ln, hoc cng c th s b thit hi s tin h b ra. Nh vy
c ngha l nhng ngi u t C Phiu s khng c mt s m bo chc chn
no, cn nhng ngi u t vo tri phiu th s c chnh doanh nghip/chnh
ph m bo, bi v n l N m, l n th phi tr c vn v li. Do Tri
Phiu cn c xem l mt cng c trnh ri ro trong nn kinh t. Mi khi c bin
ng kinh t, ti chnh th ngi ta s tm n Tri Phiu nh mt bc tng
thnh tr n vy, bi v lc ch c Chnh Ph/Doanh Nghip ln mi c th
m bo chc chn s tin m ngi dn ang nm gi, thay v gi tin mt
trong ngi hm cha nhiu ri ro, c th l lm pht, mt gi ng tin v
d trn v cuc khng hong nm 2008 chnh l minh chng gn y nht v r
rng nht gii thch cho trng hp ny.

Trn phng din l mt IA Trader th vic quan st bin ng ca Bond Yield

suy on market sentiment (Tm l hay cm nhn ca th trng) ca nn
kinh t trong tng lai. Hu ht trong cc trng hp khi Yield tng ln th tc l
cm nhn ca market trong tng lai s tt hn. Tc l kinh t s tng trng, v
khi nn kinh t tng trng qu cao th tt yu gy nn hin tng lm pht. H
qu ca lm pht l do gi c hng ha tng cao, tc l ni mt cch d hiu th
Th trng Tri phiu s l thc o sm nht, nhanh nht tin on lm pht
trong tng lai ca nn kinh t. M tin on c lm pht th iu u tin cc
Central bank ngh n l phn li, lm pht tng qu cao th phi nng li sut
v ngc li trong trng hp Bond Yield gim.

PHN LOI TRI PHIU: TRI PHIU NGN HN V TRI PHIU DI HN

Trong thc t c kh nhiu cch phn loi tri phiu. Nhng vi mt Trader
th Tri phiu c phn loi thnh cc k hn. Trong Tri phiu c k hn di
2 nm gi l Ngn hn, Tri phiu c k hn t 3-7 nm l trung hn v Tri
phiu c k hn trn 7 nm c gi l di hn. V bn cht ca tri phiu l N,
do vy nn khi k hn cng di th ri ro s cng ln, ri ro c th nhiu hnh
thc, gi s nh lm pht trong nn kinh t qu cao, ng tin mt gi hoc ri
ro v n Chnh ph/Doanh nghip Cng chnh v l ri ro cao nn li tc cng
phi cao hn, nh vy trong mt nn kinh t n nh v khng c suy thoi th
tri phiu c k hn cng lu th li tc s cng tng cao. Ti nhc n trong mt
nn kinh t n nh, v nu nh c suy thoi, kinh t i xung th lc ny li tc
c cn tun th theo quy lut na hay khng? gii thch r hn chng ta
s chuyn sang mt khi nim mi v ng Cong Li Tc (Yield Curve). Thng
thng trong phn tch th trng currency, mt vi hng ha kim khong qung
chnh v nhng ch s Indices th chng ta s dng hnh thc phn loi theo k
hn s phn nh c mt cch nhanh chng nht. Ngoi ra th cng c nhng
hnh thc phn loi khc, nhng t c quan tm hn:

Phn loi theo ngi pht hnh

 1. Tri phiu ca Chnh ph: p ng nhu cu chi tiu ca Chnh ph, chnh
ph pht hnh tri phiu huy ng tin nhn ri trong dn v cc t
chc kinh t, x hi. Chnh ph lun c coi l Nh pht hnh c uy tn
nht trn th trng; V vy, Tri phiu Chnh ph c coi l loi chng
khon c t ri ro nht.

2. Tri phiu ca doanh nghipl nhng tri phiu do doanh nghip nh nc,
cng ty c phn v cng ty trch nhim hu hn pht hnh tng vn
hot ng. Tri phiu doanh nghip c nhiu loi v rt a dng.

3. Tri phiu ca ngn hng v cc t chc ti chnh: cc t chc ny c th

pht hnh tri phiu tng thm vn hot ng.

Phn loi li tc tri phiu

1. Tri phiu cli sut c nh l loi tri phiu m li tc c xc nh theo

mt t l phn trm (%) c nh tnh theo mnh gi.

2. Tri phiu cli sut bin i (li sut th ni) l loi tri phiu m li tc
c tr trong cc k c s khc nhau v c tnh theo mt li sut c s
bin i theo mt li sut tham chiu.

3. Tri phiu c li sut bng khng l loi tri phiu m ngi mua khng
nhn c li, nhng c mua vi gi thp hn mnh gi (mua chit
khu) v c hon tr bng mnh gi khi tri phiu o hn.

Phn loi theo mc m bo thanh ton ca ngi pht hnh

1. Tri phiu bo m l loi tri phiu m ngi pht hnh dng mt ti sn

c gi tr lm vt m bo cho vic pht hnh. Khi nh pht hnh mt kh
nng thanh ton, th tri ch c quyn thu v bn ti sn thu hi li
s tin ngi pht hnh cn n. Tri phiu bo m thng bao gm mt
s loi ch yu sau:

Tri phiu c ti sn cm c l loi tri phiu bo m bng vic

ngi pht hnh cm c mt bt ng sn bo m thanh ton
cho tri ch. Thng gi tr ti sn cm c ln hn tng mnh gi
ca cc tri phiu pht hnh m bo quyn li cho tri ch.

Tri phiu bo m bng chng khon k qu l loi tri phiu c

bo m bng vic ngi pht hnh thng l em k qu s chng
khon d chuyn nhng m mnh s hu lm ti sn bo m.

2. Tri phiu khng bo m l loi tri phiu pht hnh khng c ti sn lm

vt bo m m ch bo m bng uy tn ca ngi pht hnh.

Phn loi da vo hnh thc tri phiu

1. Tri phiu v danh l loi tri phiu khng ghi tn ca ngi mua v trong
s sch ca ngi pht hnh. Tri ch l ngi c hng quyn li.
 2. Tri phiu ghi danh l loi tri phiu c ghi tn ca ngi mua v trong s
sch ca ngi pht hnh.

Phn loi da vo tnh cht tri phiu

1. Tri phiu c th chuyn i l loi tri phiu ca cng ty c phn m tri

ch c quyn chuyn sang c phiu ca cng ty . Vic ny c quy
nh c th v thi gian v t l khi mua tri phiu.

2. Tri phiu c quyn mua c phiu l loi tri phiu c km theo phiu cho
php tri ch c quyn mua mt s lng nht nh c phiu ca cng
ty.

3. Tri phiu c th mua li l loi tri phiu cho php nh pht hnh c
quyn mua li mt phn hay ton b trc khi tri phiu n hn thanh
ton

NG CONG LI TC (YIELD CURVE) L G? TM QUAN TRNG CA

NG CONG LI TC

Vic mua bn tri phiu cng ging nh vay mn ca ngn hng vy, v bt
c dch v g cng u phi tr mt khon tin li sut, th trong th trng tri
phiu cng vy, khi Chnh Ph/Doanh Nghip mun huy ng vn th s pht
hnh tri phiu v ng nhin l h mang tin n cho nhng v th tt nhin
cc v y phi tr li cho h ri, chnh l li tc ca tri phiu. Tuy nhin li tc
cng nh k hn vay vn hay gi tit kim vi ngn hng vy, khng phi k hn
no cng ging k hn no, v nu nh chng ta ni nhng hn mc li tc tri
phiu li th s c mt ng cong gi l ng cong li tc.

Theo Investopedia nh ngha: ng Cong Li Tc

Mt ng cong th hin mc li sut, ti cng mt thi im nht nh. Tri

phiu c cht lng tn nhim ngang nhau (thng th cng mt quc gia/doanh
nghip pht hnh), nhng khc nhau ngy o hn. Cc ng cong li sut k
hn khc nhau nh l: 3 thng, 1 nm, 2 nm, 5 nm, 7 nm, 10 nm, 20 nm,
30 nm ly v d t tri phiu kho bc M. ng cong li sut ny c s
dng nh mt mc chun cho cc khon n khc trn th trng, chng hn nh
li sut th chp hoc li sut cho vay ca ngn hng. ng cong cng c s
dng d on nhng thay i trong sn lng kinh t v tng trng trong
nn kinh t.

DEFINITION of Yield Curve

A line that plots the interest rates, at a set point in time, of bonds having equal
credit quality, but differing maturity dates. The most frequently reported yield
curve compares the three-month, two-year, five-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury
debt. This yield curve is used as a benchmark for other debt in the market, such
as mortgage rates or bank lending rates. The curve is also used to predict
changes in economic output and growth.
Hnh 2.6: ng cong li tc Tri Phiu Chnh Ph M ti thi im ngy
16/11/2015 (ngun: http://www.treasury.gov/)

CC DNG HNH THI C TRNG CA NG CONG LI TC

Cng tng t nh cc hng ha, th trng khc th Tri Phiu cng c rt

nhiu hnh thi khc nhau, rt nhiu trng hp khc nhau phn nh th
trng hin ti v tng lai. c th hiu su hn v cc dng hnh thi ny v
ti sao ng cong li tc li l kim ch nam tin on tng lai ca nn kinh
t th chng ta phi hiu r bn cht ca tng dng ng cong li tc .

ng cong li tc bnh thng (dng chun): T sau giai on i suy

thoi th ng cong li tc tr li dng bnh thng, c ngha l li tc tng
khi k hn o hn cng di (tc l dc ng con li tc l dng tnh).
dc dng phn nh k vng nn kinh t c u t pht trin trong tng
lai, v quan trng cho s tng trng ny l lin kt vi mt k vng ln hn l
lm pht trong tng lai v th cng s tng. K vng lm pht tng dn n k
vng rng cc ngn hng trung ng s tht cht chnh sch tin t bng cch
nng li sut ngn hn trong tng lai lm chm tc tng trng kinh t v
kim ch p lc lm pht. N cng to ra mt nhu cu cho mt chi ph bo him
ri ro lin quan vi s khng chc chn v tng lai t l lm pht v nguy c ny
t ra cho cc gi tr tng lai ca dng tin. Cc nh u t gi tr nhn thy ri
ro ny bng cch nhn i hi mc li tc cao hn cho cc tri phiu ngn hn v
trung hn trong tng lai. Tuy nhin mt ng cong li tc dc tch cc khng
phi lun lun l tiu chun. Qua giai on cui th k 19 u 20 nn kinh t M
c xu hng tng trng nhng li phi i mt gim pht. Trong thi gian ny
cc ng cong li tc thng o ngc, tc l li tc tri phiu k hn cng
ngn th li tc cng cao, phn nh thc t l gim pht khin dng tin hin ti
t c gi tr hn so vi cc dng tin trong tng lai. Nh vy rt ra c rng
trong mt giai on gim pht th ng cong li tc c xu hng o ngc.
 ng cong li tc dc: Trong lch s, tri phiu kho bc k hn 20 nm
t mc trung bnh khong 2% chnh lch so vi k hn 3 thng. Trong cc tnh
hung khi khong cch ny tng ln (v d nh li tc tri phiu 20 nm tng cao
hn so vi li tc k hn 3 thng), iu ny c ngha l nn kinh t trong tng
lai s c ci thin nhanh chng. y l loi ng cong c th c nhn thy
giai on u ca chu k tng trng nn kinh t (hoc sau khi kt thc mt
cuc suy thoi). y, kinh t tr tr s c li sut ngn hn thp, tuy nhin gi
bt u tng ln khi nhu cu huy ng vn c ti thit lp bi cc hot ng
pht trin kinh t. Vo thng 1 nm 2010, khong cch gia li tc tri phiu 2
nm v 10 nm m rng n 2,92%, cao nht t trc n nay. Trong trng hp
ny ng cong li tc qu dc.

ng cong li tc dng phng hoc hi dc: Mt ng cong li tc

phng c quan st thy khi tt c cc k hn u gn nh c mc li tc
tng t nhau, trong trng hp ny th ng cong li tc ang gi mt tn hiu
bt n trong nn kinh t. Tn hiu hn hp ny c th tr li dng ng cong li
tc bnh thng hoc sau ny c th cho kt qu thnh mt ng cong ngc.
hiu thm v tn hiu bo trc s sp ca nn kinh t da vo ng
cong li tc dng phng chng ta c th quan st thi im cuc khng hong
nm 2008 din ra, trc khi cuc khng hong chnh thc bt u th ng
cong li tc c nhng thay i ln v dng phng xut hin nh l mt d bo
trc vy.

Hnh 2.7: ng cong li tc chuyn sang dng phng l du hiu bo trc cho
s sp trn th trng vo giai on cui nm 2007 u nm 2008.
(ngun:http://www.treasury.gov/)

ng cong li tc o ngc: Mt ng cong li tc ngc xy ra khi

li tc tri phiu di hn thp hn li tc tri phiu ngn hn. Trong nhng
trng hp bt thng, cc nh u t di hn s bt u c nhng lo ngi rng
nn kinh t s tng trng chm li hoc thm ch l suy thoi trong tng lai.
Qu thc l trong sut qung thi gian t 1970 n nay 7 ln ng cong li
tc o ngc v c 7 ln nn kinh t n i xung sau v ri vo suy
thoi. Do vy cc ngn hng trung ng s quan st ng cong li tc rt k
tin on nhng giai on trong nn kinh t, kh nng d bo trc nn kinh t
khi nhn vo mt ng cong li tc o ngc l rt cao. Ngoi kh nng d bo
s suy gim kinh t, cc ng cong li tc ngc cng hm rng th trng tin
rng lm pht vn mc thp v s c th dn n gim pht trong tng lai.
iu ny l v ngay c khi c mt cuc suy thoi, li tc tri phiu thp vn s
c kha lp bi lm pht thp, tuy nhin nu c mt thay i no hoc tnh
hung ngoi d on vi kinh t ton cu, c th gy ra s gia tng nhu cu i
vi tri phiu di hn khin li tc tri phiu di hn gim.

TM QUAN TRNG CA NG CONG LI TC

Thng qua nhng nh ngha v ln lt i qua cc dng ca ng cong li

tc phn no cng nu ln c bc tranh ton cnh th trng tri phiu,
mc d c nhiu hnh thi tri phiu nh l tri phiu doanh nghip, tri phiu
chnh ph. Nhng trong khun kh ca mt currency trader th chng ta quan
tm nhiu hn n tri phiu chnh ph, v c bit hn c l tri phiu ca mt
vi nn kinh t ln nht trn th gii trong c bit ch n tri phiu M. V
nh gii thch trn: d th no i na th tri phiu M vn l bc tng thnh
tr n an ton nht mi khi c bin ng khng hong, do ch mt vi thay
i trn ng cong li tc ca M thi cng s l nhng du hiu d bo trc
cho nn kinh t ton cu. Trong nhng phn tch thc t m Ti p dng v trong
khun kh cun sch ny Ti thng s dng mt vi Bond yield k hn trn 7
nm v thng th theo di nhng biu live price trang
web www.investing.com (trong phn ph lc Ti s c gng l gii tht chi tit v
phng php theo di tin tc v biu ).

Thm mt lu na l s c nhiu bn lm tng rng quan st gi tri

phiu, li tc tri phiu ch thch hp vi nhng ngi giao dch di hn, iu ny
khng sai v ng l vi nhng ai giao dch di hn th s rt quan tm n tri
phiu nhng iu khng c ngha l nhng ngi giao dch day trader v
swing trade nh Ti chng hn li b qua, vic quan st th trng tri phiu
trc khi quyt nh giao dch vi hng ha, cc cp tin v mt vi ch s
indices l rt quan trng, theo di streaming chart li tc tri phiu trn 7 nm l
cc k cn thit .

Trch Phn I Chng II Cun sch: Phn Tch C Bn v K Thut Lin

Th Trng Trong Giao Dch Ti Chnh