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Robert A. Manning
Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council, USA
Chen Zhimin
Dean, School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University, China
Song Guoyong
Professor, Institute for International Studies, Fudan University, China
Tatiana A. Flegontova
Director, Russian APEC Study Center, The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public
Administration (RANEPA)
The views and opinions expressed in this Report are those of the authors
and do not represent the views of the Valdai Discussion Club, unless explicitly stated otherwise.
Contents
Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................................3
U.S. Strategy and the Evolving Economic Order in the Asia-Pacific .................................................................5
Asias Coming of Age ..................................................................................................................................6
US Scoring Own Goals.............................................................................................................................. 7
Maintain the Foundations ........................................................................................................................ 7
Conclusion .....................................................................................................................................................8
Introduction
Over the past ten years, the Asia-Pacific in the region mostly benefit US corporations.
region has been the global economys main These rules would ultimately be imposed
center of gravity. The worlds leading non- on the potential members of the community.
Asian centers of power, the United States and China is keen to base the economic
Russia, almost simultaneously announced order in the Asia-Pacific region to another
their turn to the Asia Pacific and proclaimed project the Regional Comprehensive
the region a main foreign policy priority. Economic Partnership (RCEP) as
However, the regions economic order remains the foundation of the economic order
unclear, and represents a concentration in the region, which presupposes profound
of diverse and often incompatible projects trade liberalization, but does not cover
and regimes, from ASEAN, the regions investment and economic policy regulation
most advanced integration project, to APEC, and excludes the United States.
the most broad-based and inclusive economic By the middle of 2016, the US project
cooperation forum. appeared to be gaining the upper hand.
On the one hand, all the major In February 2016, the TPP agreement was
Asia-Pacific economies support further signed, while talks to create the Regional
liberalization of the regions trade and Comprehensive Economic Partnership were
economic regime. On the other hand, there far from over. However, the new US president
is no agreement as to what rules and regimes Donald Trump, in line with his nationalistic
this liberalization should be based on and and even protectionist foreign economic policy
how deep it should be. At the same time, agenda, withdrew the US signature under
the Asia Pacifics main power centers, the US the TPP agreement on his first day in office,
and China, seek to shape the economic order thus destroying the Obama administrations
in the region to their benefit, so that it efforts of the past several years and once again
mostly reflects their economic interests and muddling the shape of the future economic
geopolitical aspirations. order of the Asia Pacific.
In recent years, polarization between The regions future architecture
the United States and China has been and contents are once again unclear,
the prevailing trend in the regions economy and as is the future US policy on this issue.
politics. Both powers have promoted competing The Trump administration prefers bilateral
projects for the regions economic order. trade and economic agreements with
The United States sought to put in its foundation the countries in the region. However, it
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), an economic is also possible that the US will return
community that would be based on the most to the TPP in one form or another under
advanced and stringent trade, investment and the next president after Trump. There
economic regulations and would include 12 is also a possibility that many of the TPP
founding nations, all of which are allies and provisions will be included in the US bilateral
close partners of the United States. economic agreements with Asian countries,
China was excluded from this project. especially those where there is little threat
The Obama administration sought, on the one of outsourcing production due to cheap labor.
hand, to consolidate key partners around What does all of this mean for Russia,
the US, and on the other hand, to ensure which is still a relative newcomer in the Asia-
that the rules underlying the economic order Pacific region? Which of the economic order
scenarios in the Asia Pacific is most appears that the Chinese initiatives
beneficial for Russia? Does it stand to benefit to create an inclusive and open economic
from the regions polarization between order in the Asia Pacific (the RCEP and One
the Chinese and US projects, and should Belt, One Road) are beginning to prevail,
it join one of them? Can Russia seriously but the region and China are still facing
affect the development of the economic serious challenges. First of all, there is still
configuration in the Asia-Pacific region or potential for a trade war between the US and
even propose its own economic project for China. The policy of the current US president
the region? Which areas should Moscow focus on the economic order in the Asia Pacific,
its efforts on? These and many other issues just as that of his predecessor, is causing
are raised and discussed in this report. concern in Beijing.
The report analyzes the approaches Tatiana Flegontova, Director
of the United States and China, as the Asia of the Russian APEC Study Center (The
Pacifics two key poles, to shaping the regions Russian Presidential Academy of National
economic order, and describes in detail Economy and Public Administration),
Russias interests in this dynamic region, has presented Russias comprehensive
which has significant importance for its s t r a t e g y o n t h e e co n o m i c p r o ce s s e s
economic development and global positioning. in the Asia-Pacific region, including detailed
In his analysis of the US strategy recommendations on the approaches toward
on the economic order in the Asia-Pacific the RCEP, APEC, One Belt, One Road and
region, Robert Manning, senior research other key initiatives that shape the regions
fellow at the Atlantic Council, argues that economic landscape.
the creation of an inclusive economic order Strategically, according to Tatiana
in the region, reflecting both the US and Flegontova, Russia and the Eurasian
Chinese interests, is possible, but for this Economic Union should orient themselves
to happen, Washington would need to display toward, but not limit themselves to, joining
flexibility and afford more rights to Beijing the RCEP, and simultaneously continue
and other non-Western players in terms to work actively within APEC and the Great
of global economic governance. The TPP Eurasian Partnership. The expert believes
rules, according to Manning, should play an that Russia should work within the existing
important role in this future order. p r o j e c t s a n d i n i t i a t i ve s i n t h e A s i a
In their analysis of the Chinese Pacific, without trying to offer its own
approach, Fudan University professors Chen megaproject, for which Moscow is still
Zhimin and Song Guoyu emphasize that lacking sufficient resources and standing
the regional players and institutions should in the region.
have the main role in shaping the economic
order in the Asia Pacific. According to them, Dmitry Suslov
the rules of this order should be aimed at Programme Director of the Foundation for
promoting the development of the countries Development and Support of the Valdai
of the region, rather than causing rivalry Discussion Club, Deputy Director of the Centre
between them. for Comprehensive European and International
Since Donald Trump has assumed Studies at the National Research University
the presidency in the United States it Higher School of Economics, Russia
to its credibility in the Asia-Pacific. Nationalist trade and investment (e.g., Europe, North America,
America First rhetoric has sparked doubts Latin America) altering the dynamics of globalization.
about Washingtons reliability among US allies As a burgeoning Asian middle class has
and partners in the region. The most prominent grown, consumption of goods and services have
example has been Philippines President Rodrigo risen. The region relies less on US markets, and
Dutertes tilt to China and threats to curb military more on their own. This activity comprises a large
cooperation and rescind an accord allowing the US portion of the global supply chains and trade and
access to bases in the Philippines. financial flows that define globalization. In 2013,
Given that much of the US anti-trade intra-Asian trade exceeded 53% of the regions
views are more emotional than fact-based, total trade.6 Inter-regional trade between emerging
exaggerating the role of trade in causing job losses, economies South-South trade evident
it is possible that Trumps formal rejection may in Chinas trade with Africa and Latin America,
not be the end of the story. Some US analysts and and a large and growing energy nexus between
in the Japanese government think that by 2019 Asia and the Middle East. . Chinas One Belt,
the shortcomings of Trumps trade view might lead One Road, promises to strengthen intra-Asian
his administration to revisit TPP fix its deficiencies connectivity and that of Eurasia more broadly.
and put a Trump stamp on it. There is also interest While largely the result of market-
in pursuing a US-Japan FTA, favored by some driven integration, this pattern is also reflected
in Japan.5 Such developments would mitigate in a growing number of bilateral and multilateral
the damage to US interests. trade agreements between regional trading
partners, according the WTO, over 524 of them.7
These trends have given rise to the BRICS (Brazil,
Asias Coming of Age Russia India, China South Africa) an unlikely
grouping united in their impatience with the status
But regardless of Trumps intentions, Asias quo. For the US, it is indicative of the weight
growing weight in an increasingly polycentric of the balance of forces tilting against Washington:
economic order raises questions about some even as US trade and investment in Asia grows
of the core assumptions of US strategy. That in absolute terms, it is diminishing in relative
the relatively static 1948 Bretton Woods institutions terms, as the region is growing faster than the US.
and governance structures no longer reflect It is only natural to wonder how much
the proportionate weight of emerging economic and of Chinas behavior has been due to frustration
financial actors in the world of the 21st century was at the inability of the Bretton Woods system
dramatized by Chinas launchof the AIIB, its push to adequately reform, how much is a hedging strategy
for the RMB to become a global reserve currency or whether it reflects Beijings hopes for a Sino-centric
and its pursuit of other parallel institutions world. One stark example of the international systems
like the BRICS bank, known officially as New inertia is the International Energy Agency (IEA) which
Development Bank, and not least, by Beijings One was created by OECD energy-consuming nations
Belt, One Road (OBOR) pivot West strategy. in the aftermath of the 197374 energy crisis. Today,
Asian nations are increasingly trading with, China and India, the two largest drivers of growth
and investing in, each other. This is indicative
of a larger global trend of burgeoning intra-regional 6
See WTO statistics, 2014: https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/
statis_e/its2014_e/its14_world_trade_dev_e.pdf
5
Both METI officials and Japanese think-tank analysts have raised 7
See WTO statistics: https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/region_e/
the FTA idea in conversations with the author. regfac_e.htm Member-states are obliged to notify the WTO of FTAs.
in energy demand over the past two decades, are not Major multilateral economic and
members. Though the IEA has made efforts to work financial institutions with proven track records
with both Beijing and New Delhi, it has failed to make have facilitated growth and development
the necessary structural changes to modernize the IEA over the past 70 years, and reliance on them
such that it reflects current energy realities. continues, particularly if they adapt to new
If the 2010 G-20 reforms of the International realities. The system has shown some ability
Monetary Fund had not been blocked by the U.S. to make adjustments in policy and country
Congress (not passed until 2015) leaving China representation: The US did finally approve
with voting shares equal to those of France, even the G-20 reforms giving China and other emerging
though its economy is five times larger and economies larger votes in the IMF; The G-20 role
if the Asian Development Bank had been reformed in global financial governance was elevated after
to give China a larger role, would Beijing have gone the 2008 financial crisis in which it played a critical
ahead with the AIIB? role; The RMB has been added to the IMF basket
of global currencies known as Special Drawing
Rights, and given substantial weight.
US Scoring Own Goals
The political inertia of international Maintain the Foundations
economic institutions and deficit of proactive US
leadership to remodel the system to reflect current The prospect remains that the U.S., China,
geoeconomic realities is part of a larger US political Russia and other major countries, such as Japan,
dysfunction epitomized by a polarized US Congress South Korea and the ten in ASEAN, can find
that has passed a record dearth of legislation. common ground within an inclusive, open, rules-
Beyond the fate of TPP, neither Trump nor many based economic order. Trade is not a zero-sum game.
in the new Republican-controlled Congress are If the TPP (or its successor), various US, EU and
strong supporters of the Bretton Woods and related Japanese investment treaties with China, and the EU-
institutions. US rejection of TPP would undermine Japan Free Trade Agreement are realized, they will
US credibility and likely be an inflection point create benchmark norms of higher standards
marking a downward trajectory in Asian perceptions for a majority of global trade. If not, the Regional
of the durability of the US commitment to the region. Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)
To ensure durable economic prosperity which China is promoting and includes, Japan, South
in the Asia-Pacific, the regions institutions must Korea and India, but not the U.S. will shape
have broad support among its major constituent the trade architecture in the region.
countries. Otherwise, these structures will be As China implements its market-based
unstable. The U.S. should be prepared to accept new economic reforms, it will benefit from higher
institutional frameworks that operate on standards standards for trade. In any case, new rules for trade
compatible with those now in place and which covering digital commerce, Intellection Property
are inclusive. As a Pacific but not an Asian power, Protection, and emerging new technologies will be
the U.S. need not participate in all regional needed, whether under TPP or other mechanisms.
arrangements. After all, the U.S. has the North If some revised version of TPP is realized, China
American Free Trade Agreement, and Europe has should be welcomed as a member as soon
the European Union. Institutional initiatives with it is prepared. If not, the RCEP might serve
high standards should be welcomed. as the stepping stone to the APEC vision of an
therefore, China should learn from it and join cooperation with countries along the Belt and
it in the future. Yet another and a much bigger the Road, established bilateral FTAs with key
group of people argued that TPP was essentially economies in the region, such as Australian,
a tool for the United States to reshape Korea, Singapore and New Zealand, upgraded
the economic order in the Asia-Pacific region, the existing FTA with ASEAN, created new
and by excluding China in the first place, TPP international financing institutions to meet
was a rule-club targeting at China. Nevertheless, the wider regional demands for funding
even this kind of negative perception of TPP in infrastructure building. Such an approach
did not argue that China needed to worry may be more in line with the immediate
too much about the emergence of the TPP interests of the countries in the region,
economic bloc. On the one hand, Chinese tend and thus may generate more fruitful and
to believe that, with the increase of influence substantial benefits for China and other
in regional economy and Chinas expanding countries to ensure a win-win relationship.
domestic market, a TTP without China would T h e e l e c t i o n o f D o n a l d Tr u m p ,
not serve as the only economic option for all who has been criticizing the TPP project
members of the TTP, including the United throughout his campaign, marked a sudden
States itself, let alone for other smaller and dramatic shift of American foreign
economies. Furthermore, TTP itself would have economic policy. President Trump decided
had huge hurdles to overcome in order to make to pull the US out of TPP on the 1`st working
it effective, considering the adverse attitude day in the Oval office, which changed
towards free trade in the United States, and the economic landscape in the Asia-Pacific.
the uncertain economic impacts on its other Even if countries like Japan still wants
members. to keep the TPP, a TPP without the United
Partly as a response to the TPP, Beijing States is not conceivable and is meaningless.
has been working on a number of initiatives For China, it is comforting to see a project
in building a more inclusive and cooperative which excluded and targeted China is dead for
r e g i o n a l e co n o m i c o r d e r. O n e e f fo r t the moment, and many countries in the region
is to support the Regional Comprehensive starts to give more urgency to reach an early
Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiation. conclusion of the RCEP negotiation, a project
Even though RECP started later than TPP, it which China strongly favors and supports.
is regarded by China as an important attempt Furthermore, as the United States is becoming
to deepen Asian-Pacific economic integration, more economically inward looking and
to open up their markets further to each other, protectionist, Chinas One Belt and One
remove more trade and investment barriers Road initiative is attracting more interests
among sixteen countries in the region, from the neighboring countries. In a word,
including the China, India and Japan. in Asia-Pacific, Chinas view of a regional
Certainly, Chinas One Belt One economic order is becoming more popular
Road initiative is another development than before.
in shaping regional economic order. Through However, there are a number of concerns
deepening economic relations with maritime China should take very seriously. The first
Pacific Asian countries and large number is the potential major trade conflict between
of countries on the Eurasian continent, the United States and China. President
China has focused on project-based economic Trump has pledged during the election
campaign that he would impose additional China did not like the Obamas neoliberal
tariff on imported Chinese goods and label order in the sense that it tried to make new
China as a currency manipulator if elected. trade rules for the region, which China was
Now as he is in the White House, China not ready for. China is also not welcoming
and the rest of the world would watch very the Trump policy that is negating the whole
carefully if president Trump acts as he pledged concept of free trade, which might jeopardize
before. Certainly, China does not want a trade the very foundation of an open economic
war with the United States, which is bound order in the region, and trigger potential trade
to be a lose-lose game for both economies wars between major economies.
and economies highly interdependent with This uncertainty indicates
China and the United States. And it would the presence of competitive economic
be still possible that president Trump would orders in the making in the region. Such
not launch a full-scale trade war with China, a competition could be positive if they could
considering the huge stakes it involves. Such generate new development opportunities,
a trade war between two largest economies inspire best practices. However, as we
in the world would shake the very foundation are witnessing a trend towards a possibly
of an open and inclusive economic order more malign competition, countries
in the region, which will be in no countries in the region shall avoid a race-to-bottom
interests. competition, which would hurt each other
Second, even if a full-fledged trade war economically and further erode strategic
is absent, economic tension will still run high trust in an already fragile regional order.
between the United States and China, casting Therefore, the United States and China do
a long shadow over the prospect of economic have a major responsibility to manage their
development and cooperation in the region. economic disputes and to ensure an overall
We have to see how the two countries cooperative economic relationship. That
will manage their economic relations will be a tremendous challenge for them
in the coming months. in the coming months and years.
Third, we also need to be cautious In addition, China believes that Asia-
about the prospect of the RCEP negotiation. Pacific is a vast area with many important
For instance, Japan, a staunch supporter nations in it. Neither China nor America
of the TPP out of strong counter-China alone can decide the economic order
strategic motivation, may not be willing of this region. Russia, Japan, ASEAN and other
to facilitate an early conclusion of the RECP countries are all important forces in shaping
negotiation. the future economic order. For building a new
The Asian-Pacific economic order economic order in the region, participation
is undergoing major shifts. As the TPP fading and contribution from other economies are
away, and the Trump administrations trade necessary. The cooperation between Chinas
policy is in the process of taking shape, Belt and Road initiative with Russias
uncertainty is the only word to describe Eurasian Economic Union could be beneficial
the current situation in the region. Few people in this regard, and both China and Russia
have anticipated such a U-turn of American could think seriously of the idea of Russia-
foreign economic policy, from a neoliberal China FTA in the coming years.
fashion towards a protectionist one. Clearly,
needs to step up its pivot to the East policy, only recently, and taking into account its current
provide it with substance and, most importantly, commitments, it seems advisable to adopt
devise its own strategy for becoming part a step-by-step approach in terms of joining
of regional geo-economic architecture. the integration processes in the Asia Pacific.
Taking into account the two major Speaking of specific steps, before joining
dimensions of trade and economic cooperation RCEP Russia and EAEU should enter into an FTA
mentioned above, it is necessary to divide with ASEAN. The EAEU-Vietnam FTA entered
the recommendations for Russia into two blocks into force on October 5, 2016. Depending on its
as well. The first is regional economic integration effectiveness decisions to further liberalize trade
through non-preferential, preferential agreements with other ASEAN countries could be made. It
and FTAs with leading regional partners. is important to note that many representatives
The second is developing a proactive agenda of economic ministries of the ASEAN countries,
to strengthen regional connectivity. most of which had already shown interest
As for the first integration dimension, in stepping up integration with the EAEU,
recommendation is the following. Given supported during the 2016 Sochi Summit Russias
the fact that multilateral cooperation is gaining ambitious initiative to establish an EAEU-ASEAN
momentum in the region, it seems advisable free-trade area.
for Russia and its EAEU partners to join one There is a need for enhanced cooperation
of the mega-regional integration projects with other RCEP members as well, primarily South
in the long-term prospect. RCEP appears to be Korea and China. In this respect, it seems advisable
more relevant and acceptable for Russia compared to sign broad non-preferential agreements with
to the TPP, especially considering its uncertain a focus on economic cooperation. The main areas
future. In fact, RCEP is less ambitious in terms of cooperation could be to explore liberalization
of mutual trade liberalization, the possibility opportunities, assess opportunities for trade
to operate the agreement as a living document, facilitation and rules harmonization, and identify
as well as the general propensity of Russia and its sectoral and industrial cooperation opportunities.
EAEU partners to promote political cooperation A number of initiatives to this effect are
with RCEP members, including China and ASEAN already in place. Russia is proactive in its contacts
member states. A simulation of the consequences with South Korea. In addition, the Eurasian
of EAEU becoming part of each of the two blocks Economic Commissions Trade Minister,
has shown that joining RCEP would lead to higher Veronika Nikishina, and the Chinese Commerce
GDP growth for EAEU countries compared to TPP. Minister, Gao Hucheng, signed a joint statement
Remarkably, the fact that Russia seems July 25, 2016 on the start of talks to establish
to prefer RCEP has been confirmed at the official a non-preferential EAEU-China partnership. Ms.
level. According to the final documents of the May Nikishina said the talks covered a broad agenda
2016 ASEAN-Russia Summit and statements made leading to advanced agreements on non-tariff
by the Russian President following the event, Russia matters and on mutual trade facilitation. Duties
will explore ways to join RCEP. They also said that and tariffs will also be discussed at a certain point,
creating an EAEU ASEAN FTA could become but it is so far too early for that.
a major contribution by Russia and the EAEU Gradually advancing toward full mutual
to Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. liberalization of trade could make it easier for
Still, Russia should not rush to join Russia and EAEU to join RCEP and minimize
the RCEP formally. Since Russia joined the WTO potential shortcomings. Entering into several or
at least one FTA with RCEP members, shaping decision to withdraw from the TPP, Japan, Australia
a common position on issues debated within WTO and New Zealand, who participate in both blocks,
and possibly joining any plurilateral agreements will be seeking to impose on their RCEP partners
(GPA, ITA-2, TISA, EGA)10 could have a positive higher TPP-level standards. There is no way
impact not just in terms reduction of tariff China will accept this. It is also worth noting that
protection, but also help to improve domestic India stands apart in this respect. It has the most
economic regulations. These changes, in turn, will closed economy compared to the other parties
strengthen Russias bargaining position in RCEP in the talks, and does not seem to be inclined
talks, securing better terms for Russian and EAEU to move towards greater liberalization.
accession to the Partnership. In this situation, using APEC to set up a Free
As for Russias and the EAEUs relations Trade Area in Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) could provide
with the Pacific integration associations as such, Russia a promising, if not a strategic avenue for
the primary objective should be to liberalize bolstering its involvement in the integration
trade and investment with ASEAN by having processes in the Pacific. There is however an issue
the EAEU sign bilateral FTAs with individual in that APEC economies currently lack a common
ASEAN members Indonesia, Malaysia and vision for FTAAP development prospects. Until
Thailand, since cooperation with these recently, the 12 APEC economies that had signed
countries has the biggest economic impact. the TPP agreement were focusing on its ratification
Besides it is desirable to consider creating an and considering that the FTAAPs role should be
FTA with India, who is also involved in RCEP limited to capacity building. Whereas China being
negotiations, and some countries of the East. a non-TPP country insists on setting up FTAAP as
It is also important to step up efforts to sign a viable negotiating platform. In fact, China wants
broad non-preferential agreements focusing the final part of the Collective Strategic Study
on sectoral cooperation and harmonization on Issues Related to the Realization of the FTAAP
of regulations with those key regional partners to clearly designate 2020 as the deadline for
with whom EUEU (because of a number of things, launching the relevant talks. It is now unclear
including the often contradicting interests how the remaining TPP participants will evolve
of its member states) is not yet ready to sign full- their positions provided the US withdrawal from
fledged agreements on trade and investment the agreement, and how the US approach to this
liberalization.. This is the case for China and project will evolve.
South Korea first and foremost. Moving along In time the FTAAP could well become
all these tracks at the same time will serve as the centerpiece of Chinas strategy to reinforce
a foundation for the EAEU members accession its positions in terms of regional integration,
to RCEP and facilitate active participation especially given the lack of progress in Chinas
of Russia and its Eurasian integration partners talks in the ASEAN+6 format (RCEP). As already
in the key integration processes in the Asia- mentioned above, seven of the parties who have
Pacific, as well as guarantee the overall success already signed on to the TPP, are now seeking
of Russias turn to the East strategy. to bring future RCEP arrangements in line
Still, Russia should refrain from placing all with higher TPP standards, and are very likely
of its stakes on RCEP only. After Donald Trumps to intensify these efforts even further after the US
withdrawal from the TPP. This does not suit many
10
GPA Agreement on Government Procurement; ITA-2 Informa- developing countries participating in the RCEP
tion Technology Agreement; TISA Trade in Services Agreement; EGA negotiations, including China.
Environmental Goods Agreement.
initiative, including efforts to devise a roadmap including APEC, BRICS, the SCO and the G20 by
of hands-on projects and mechanisms for both participating in various projects and shaping
implementing them. a common strategy on the key cooperation areas
It is vital to ensure Russias involvement discussed at these forums.
into recently established investment banks, Specifically, Russia updated its APEC
including the BRICS New Development Bank agenda in 2016 by putting forward a number
and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. of new initiatives regarding enhancing public
Structure-wise AIIB has all it takes to compete procurement efficiency, e-commerce, SMEs
with the Asian Development Bank and the World promotion and human capital development. Russia
Bank successfully. can rely on its updated APEC agenda to promote its
There is also a third dimension to Russias interests in a number of international frameworks,
turn to the East policy, which consists of stepping including the ASEAN-Russia Dialogue Partnership,
up efforts within various international platforms, G20, BRICS and SCO.
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