Hydrological Sensitivity of A Large Himalayan Basin To Climate Change

HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES
Hydrol. Process. 18, 2363 2385 (2004)

Published online 30 June 2004 in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI: 10.1002/hyp.1468
Hydrological sensitivity of a large Himalayan basin to

climate change
Pratap Singh1 * and Lars Bengtsson2
1National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, 247 667 (U.A.), India
2 Department of Water Resources Engineering, Lund University, SE 221 00, Sweden
Abstract:
The present study sets out to investigate the sensitivity of water availability to climate change for a large western
Himalayan river (the Satluj River basin with an area of 22 275 km 2 and elevation range of 500 to 7000 m), which
receives contributions from rain, snow and glacier melt runoff. About 65% of the basin area is covered with snow during
winter, which reduces to about 11% after the ablation period. After having calibrated a conceptual hydrological model
to provide accurate simulations of observed stream flow, the hydrological response of the basin was simulated using
different climatic scenarios over a period of 9 years. Adopted plausible climate scenarios included three temperature
scenarios T C 1, T C 2, T C 3 C and four rainfall scenarios (P 10, P 5, P C 5 and P C 10%). The effect of
climate change was studied on snowmelt and rainfall contribution runoff, and total stream flow. Under warmer climate,
a typical feature of the study basin was found to be reduction in melt from the lower part of the basin owing to a
reduction in snow covered area and shortening of the summer melting season, and, in contrast, an increase in the melt
from the glacierized part owing to larger melt and an extended ablation period. Thus, on the basin scale, reduction
in melt from the lower part was counteracted by the increase from melt from upper part of the basin, resulting in
a decrease in the magnitude of change in annual melt runoff. The impact of climate change was found to be more
prominent on seasonal rather than annual water availability. Reduction of water availability during the summer period,
which contributes about 60% to the annual flow, may have severe implications on the water resources of the region,
because demand of water for irrigation, hydropower and other usage is at its peak at this time. Copyright 2004
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
KEY WORDS climate change; hydrological sensitivity; snowmelt runoff; water availability
INTRODUCTION
An increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide CO2 and other trace gases in the atmosphere over the past
100 years is well established. There is general consensus about global warming over the past 100 years. The
recent IPCC report has summarized the magnitude and trend of changes observed in global temperature and
precipitation during the 20th century and projected trends in the 21st century (IPCC, 2001a). It is reported that
the average global surface air temperature has increased by 06 02 C since the late 19th century. Using
general circulation models (GCMs), the globally averaged surface temperature is projected to increase by
14 to 58 C over the period 1990 to 2100. Present knowledge suggests that the largest influence of climate
change can be expected at high latitudes during wintertime. Moreover, land areas will warm more rapidly
than the global average. Twentieth century data for the Arctic show a warming trend of as much as 5 C over
extensive land areas (IPCC, 2000b). Model simulations suggest that warming in the northern regions of North
America, and northern and central Asia, may exceed global mean warming by more than 40%. In contrast,
the warming is expected to be less than the global mean in south and south-east Asia in summer and South
America in winter. The striking feature is that the interannual variability of global temperature is expected to
* Correspondence to: Pratap Singh, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, 247 667 (U.A.), India. E-mail: pratap@nih.emet.in
Received 21 October 2002

Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Accepted 1 September 2003
2364 P. SINGH AND L. BENGTSSON
be much larger than the trend. Climatic changes will result in changed rainfall patterns. In general, countries
north of 50 N can expect an increase in rainfall. It is understood that warming associated with greenhouse gas
concentrations will increase the variability of Asian summer monsoon along with changes in the frequency
and intensity of extreme climate events in this region. According to IPCC (1995), precipitation may increase
or decrease by as much as 15% under the assumption of a doubling of atmospheric CO2 . WMO et al. (1991)
suggested that possible effects of climate change in the design and management of water resources systems
also should be examined. Studies related to groundwater resources carried out for the Edward Balcones Fault
Zone (BFZ) aquifer, Texas indicate that under the given predicted growth and water demand, the aquifers
groundwater resources appear threatened under 2 CO2 climate change scenario (Loaiciga et al., 2000).
The extent of snow covered and glacierized areas has been greatly affected by climatic changes over the
past 100 years. Satellite data show that the extent of snow cover has decreased by 10% since the late 1960s
(IPCC, 2001a). Long-term records on glacier fluctuations on the global scale indicating the mass loss/retreat of
mountain glaciers support evidence of change in the climate in the past 100 years (Letreguilly and Reynaud,
1990). A widespread retreat of mountain glaciers has been observed in non-polar regions during the 20th
century. These glaciers and ice-caps are projected to continue their widespread retreat during the 21st century.
Climatic changes that occurred during the 20th century have had a pronounced effect on the glacial and
periglacial regime of the Alps. Since the middle of the 20th century, the areal extent of glacierization in
the European Alps has reduced by 3040%, whereas the volume of ice has reduced by 50% (Haeberli and
Beniston, 1998). The IPCC (2001b) have indicated that half of Europes alpine glaciers could disappear by
the end of the 21st century. Jones (1999) reported that climate change will affect the seasonal altitudinal and
latitudinal shift in the freezing line. The result is likely to be generally decreased snowfall over most regions,
combined with more rapid melting at lower altitudes and latitudes, reducing snow cover durations.
Warming of the Indian subcontinent by 04 C over the period 19011982 was reported by Hingane et al.
(1985), who indicated that this warming since 1900 is broadly consistent with observed global warming over
the past 100 years. Based on the results from high resolution GCMs, the IPCC (1990) reported that for the
Indian subcontinent under business-as-usual scenarios (if few or no steps are taken to limit the greenhouse
emissions), the warming will be between 1 and 2 C by 2030 throughout the year. Lal et al. (1992) studied
the impact of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations on the climate of the Indian subcontinent and its
variability by analysing the output of the Hamburg global coupled atmosphereocean circulation model.
The model suggested an increase of over 2 C over the monsoon region in the next 100 years. Analysis of
trends of annual rainfall over India shows that the 5-year running mean has fluctuated around normal rainfall
within plus or minus one standard deviation (Thapliyal and Kulshreshtha, 1991). The IPCC (1990) projected
that precipitation will change little in winter and will generally increase throughout the region by 515%
in summer.
The vulnerability of the Indian subcontinent to the impact of changing climate is of vital importance
because of the impact on water resources and consequent effect on the agriculture based economy of the
region. Possible impacts of climatic change on various aspects of the hydrological cycle have been little
studied (Divya and Mehrotra, 1995). Recent global climate analysis (IPCC, 2001b) has indicated that climate
change is likely to change stream-flow volume, as well as the temporal distribution, throughout the year over
the Asian region, imposing significant stress on the water resources in the region. The major river systems
of the Indian subcontinent, Brahamaputra, Ganga and Indus, which originate in the Himalayas are expected
to be extremely vulnerable to climate change because of the substantial contribution from snow and glaciers
into these river systems. The importance of the snow and glacier melt runoff in Himalayan rivers has been
discussed by Singh et al. (1997) and Singh and Jain (2002). In spite of high vulnerability, studies related to
climate change impact on the hydrological response of the Himalayan rivers are lacking. In the present study
attempts are made to study the possible effects of climatic change on stream flow and its various components
for the Satluj River located in the western Himalayan region. In order to investigate the impact of climate
change on the hydrological behaviour, the following four steps were followed.
Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Hydrol. Process. 18, 2363 2385 (2004)
HYDROLOGICAL SENSITIVITY OF HIMALAYAN BASINS 2365
1. Calibration of a hydrological model using observed climatic inputs and stream flow.
2. Changes in the historical time-series of climatic data, according to some projected climate change scenarios.
3. Simulation of hydrological characteristics of the catchment under changed climatic scenarios using the
calibrated hydrological model.
4. Comparison and interpretations of the model simulations for possible future hydrological characteristics in
relation to the current situation.
USE OF HYDROLOGICAL MODELS UNDER CHANGED CLIMATIC SCENARIOS

Studies related to the impacts of climate change on various components of the hydrological cycle may be
classified broadly into two categories: (i) studies using GCMs directly to predict impact of climate change
scenarios (U.S. Department of Energy, 1980; Cohen, 1986; Gleick, 1987a; IPCC, 1990; McCabe, 1994; Sausen
et al., 1994; Loaiciga et al., 1996); (ii) studies using hydrological models with assumed plausible hypothetical
climatic inputs (Nemec and Schaake, 1982; McCabe and Ayers, 1989; Nemec, 1989; Sanderson and Smith,
1990; Thomsen, 1990; Rango, 1992, Cayan and Riddle, 1993; Burn, 1994; Rango and Martinec, 1994;
Chiew et al., 1995; Singh and Kumar, 1997a). Although GCMs are invaluable tools for identifying climatic
sensitivities and changes in global climate characteristics, the major problem of the current generation of
global climate models is the limitation of their spatial resolution. A single grid of GCM may encompass
at least hundreds of square kilometres, including mountainous and desert terrain, oceans and land areas.
Usually, the output of GCMs is given for a scale much larger than that of even a large watershed. Despite
recent improvements in modelling of the climate dynamics with complex and large-scale models, use of
GCMs is still limited in evaluating regional details of climatic changes or details of the effects of such
changes on hydrological processes and water availability. Interpolation and disaggregation schemes have
been used to overcome the spatial resolution limitation of the GCMs (Epstein and Ramirez, 1994; Bardossy
and Mierlo, 2000). Loaiciga et al. (1996) have presented a detailed review on the interaction of GCMs
and the hydrological cycle. Until current GCMs improve both their spatial resolution and their hydrological
parameterization, information on the hydrological effects of global climatic changes can best be obtained
using hydrological models. After improvement in the spatial resolution of GCMs and reducing the inherent
uncertainties about the details of regional climate changes, perhaps the combination of GCMs output and
hydrological models is more realistic. Jones (1999) suggested carrying out further research on linking GCM
output with hydrological simulation models at all scales of catchments.
Application of hydrological models for climatic change can be further divided into two categories:
(i) statistical methods and (ii) hydrological modelling of basin runoff in a changed climate. The first category
of methods relies on statistical techniques, mainly regression analysis, for evaluating the hydrological
characteristics of a particular basin/region. The resulting empirical equations relate climatic parameters, such
as temperature and precipitation, to stream flow or snowmelt and estimate the change on hydrological variables
(Revelle and Wagoner, 1983; Duell, 1994). These methods assume that the relationship between temperature,
precipitation and stream flow will remain unchanged under future climatic conditions. The second category
of hydrological models uses deterministic or conceptual hydrological models that contain physically based
mathematical descriptions of hydrological phenomena. The input variables to the hydrological models can
be either hypothetical climate scenarios (Cooley, 1990; Nash and Gleick, 1991; Panagoulia, 1991; Ng and
Marsalek, 1992) or the output of GCMs (Lettenmaier and Gan, 1990; Kite, 1993; Epstein and Ramirez, 1994).
Conceptual hydrological models are considered to be suitable tools for assessing the impacts of climatic
change and for assessing the regional hydrological consequences resulting from changes in temperature
and precipitation and other climatic variables. The ability of hydrological models to incorporate projected
variations in climatic variables, snowfall and snowmelt algorithms, groundwater fluctuations and soil moisture
characteristics makes them especially attractive for water resources studies of climatic changes. Moreover,
such models can be combined with plausible hypothetical climate change scenarios to generate information
on water resources implications of future climatic changes (Gleick, 1986, 1989; WMO, 1987). Becker and
Serban (1990) suggested that the parameters of hydrological models actually may be influenced by the new
climatic conditions and such effects should be considered in studies. However, usually the model parameters
used in the conceptual models are not changed under changed climate scenarios (Gleick, 1987b; Arnell,
1992; Singh and Kumar, 1997a, Xu and Halldin, 1997). It is simply not understood how parameters should
change under the warmer climatic scenarios (IPCC, 1990; Chiew et al., 1995). Strictly speaking, validation
of parameter values is not possible until a climate change has actually occurred. Also, in the present study
the same parameters were used under current and changed climatic scenarios. More research is required to
understand the changes in model parameters under changed climatic scenarios and to study influences of such
changes on the hydrological response of the basin.
Depending on the purpose of the study and data availability, various hydrological models have been used
to study the impacts of climate change for snow-fed basins. Gleick (1987a) used a water balance model to
estimate the impact of climate on monthly water availability. Detailed studies using a deterministic model
(National Weather Service River Forecasting System (NWSRFS) Model) were carried out in mountain basins
(Cooley, 1990; Lettenmaier and Gan, 1990; Nash and Gleick, 1991; Panagoulia, 1991). For water resources
systems dominated by snow and glacier melt runoff, vulnerability to changes in global climatic conditions can
be understood better using the conceptual hydrological models. Rango (1992) used a snowmelt runoff model
(SRM) for Rio Grande and Kings river basins to study the changes in snowmelt runoff under warmer climate
scenarios. Rango and Martinec (1994) examined the influence of changes in temperature and precipitation on
the snow cover using SRM. Singh and Kumar (1997a) used University of British Columbia (UBC) watershed
model (Quick and Pipes, 1977) for studying such effects for a high-altitude river. In this study, a conceptual
snowmelt model (SNOWMOD) was used to assess the impact of global warming by modelling the snowmelt
runoff, rainfall runoff, evaporation losses and baseflow from a large Himalayan river basin.
A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF SNOWMELT MODEL USED IN PRESENT STUDY
The stream flow of Himalayan rivers consists of contributions from melting of snow and ice, and rainfall-
induced runoff. Data on precipitation, temperature and river flow are scarce. A hydrological model, which
can handle both snowmelt and rainfall efficiently using limited data, is most suited for the Himalayan basins.
In the present study, a conceptual snowmelt model (SNOWMOD) was developed and applied for simulation
of daily stream flow for the Satluj river basin, which has on average about 60% contribution from snow and
glaciers (Singh and Jain, 2002). Details of input requirement and model structure of various existing models
show that in addition to changes in internal structure of the models for computing snowmelt and rainfall
runoff and routing these components to the outlet of the basin, there is a major difference in their input
data related to snow information. Most snow models use snowfall data as input for computing snowmelt, but
some use snow covered area (SCA) data as input instead of snowfall data. Availability of snowfall data in the
Himalayan basins is very poor because of inadequate networks in the high-altitude regions with rugged terrain
and inaccessibility to the higher altitudes. Under such conditions, SCA data must be used in the snow model.
Thus, the basic inputs to SNOWMOD are temperature, rain precipitation and SCA. Temperature and rainfall
are observed data from ground stations, whereas extent of snow cover is derived from the satellite data.
The snowmelt model SNOWMOD is designed primarily for mountainous basins. The model conceptualizes
the basin as a number of elevation zones depending upon the topographic relief of the mountainous basin.
Because temperature and precipitation vary with elevation in a mountainous basin, the model distributes these
data to different elevation zones. The mean temperature of a nearby station is extrapolated/interpolated to
elevation zones using a lapse rate of 065 C/100 m. When computing the different runoff components, each
elevation zone is treated as a separate watershed with its own characteristics. In addition to the meteorological
data, physiographical information on the basin, which includes total area of the basin, its altitudinal distribution
through elevation bands and their respective areas, and the altitude of precipitation and temperature stations,
is also required.
The temperature index or degree-day approach has been used to compute the snowmelt in the basin. A
part of the generated runoff is assigned as direct surface runoff from snowmelt and rainfall, and is computed
using runoff coefficients. The remaining water contributes to soil moisture, which is used for evaporation and
contribution to the groundwater reservoir depending upon the soil moisture deficit. The model continuously
monitors the hydrological state of the basin over the study period. The contribution to the groundwater
reservoir starts only after saturation of the topsoil to field capacity. Water from the groundwater reservoir
contributes to stream flow in the form of baseflow with much delayed response. The routing of the surface
runoff components is made separately for snow covered area (SCA) and snow free area (SFA) because their
hydrological response is different and also the extent of each of them varies with time. The storage coefficients
are considered as functions of SCA and SFA for the respective area. The storage coefficient for the baseflow
was computed using stream-flow data of the recession period (winter season) and was used for routing of
baseflow. The total stream flow emerging out from the study basin basically has three components: runoff from
the snow covered area, runoff from the snow-free area and contribution from groundwater storage in terms
of baseflow. The computation of runoff for each component was made for each elevation zone separately and
the total stream flow for the whole basin was obtained by summing the runoff synthesized for all elevation
zones. The daily discharge emerging from the basin is calculated by adding the different routed components
of discharge for each day. The flow chart of the model is given in Figure 1a.
STUDY BASIN
The Satluj River basin upstream the Bhakra Reservoir (Indian part) located in the western Himalayan region
was selected for the present study (Figure 1b). The Satluj River originates from the lakes of Mansarover and
Rakastal in the Tibetan plateau at an elevation of more than 4500 m and forms a part of the Indus River
system. In the lower part of the basin only rainfall is experienced. The topographical setting and availability
of abundant water provides a huge hydropower generation potential in this river. Several hydropower schemes
exist and more are planned for this river. The Bhakra Dam, the oldest dam in India, is situated on this river in
the foothills of the Himalayas. This dam is considered a boon to north India both for hydropower production
and irrigation.
The area of the study basin is about 22 275 km2 . The altitude of the basin varies widely from about 500 m
to 7000 m. The areaelevation curve of the study basin is given in Figure 2, which shows that about 57% area
of the basin lies between 3600 and 5400 m altitude, and only a very small area lies above 6000 m. For the
present study, the basin was divided into 10 elevation zones with an elevation difference of 600 m. The area
covered in different elevation zones is given in Figure 3. Owing to large differences in seasonal temperatures
and the great range of elevation in the basin, the snowline is highly variable, descending to an elevation of
about 2000 m during winter and retreating to above 5000 m after the summer season. About 65% of the basin
area is covered with snow during winters (Singh and Jain, 2002). Upadhyay et al. (1983) reported that about
11% area of the basin is covered by glaciers. Kulkarni et al. (1999) made a glacier inventory of the Satluj
Basin using remote sensing data and found that 2700 km2 , about 12% of the basin, is covered with permanent
snowfields and glaciers.
This river basin is characterized by diversified climatic patterns. The westerly weather disturbances deposit
nearly all the precipitation during the winter months in the upper part and middle part of the basin and most
of the precipitation falls in the form of snow in this season. The major part of the basin area lies in the
greater Himalayas where heavy snowfall takes place. The monsoon rains have little influence in the greater
Himalayan range, where the annual rainfall is about 200 mm (Singh and Kumar, 1997b). Part of the Satluj
River basin is within the middle and outer Himalayan ranges for which the annual rainfall is about 700 and
(a)
(b)
Figure 1. (a) Structure of the snowmelt model (SNOWMOD). (b) Location map of Satluj Basin upstream Bhakra Dam (Indian part) with
location of hydrometeorological stations in the basin
1300 mm, respectively (Singh and Kumar, 1997b). This indicates that rainfall is concentrated in the lower
part of the basin. Reliable information on snowfall and its distribution is not available for the whole basin.
This seasonal snowpack, developed during the winter, starts melting around March and depletes either fully
or partially during the forthcoming summer season depending upon the climatic conditions over the basin.
Snowmelt is the major runoff-producing mechanism in the upper part of the basin, whereas in the lower
Figure 2. Areaelevation curve for the Satluj River basin (Indian part) upstream of Bhakra Reservoir
Figure 3. Area of different elevation zones of the Satluj Basin as a percentage of total basin area
part of the basin it is rainfall. The middle and upper parts of the basin have contributions from both rain
and snowmelt. As the altitude within the basin increases, the rain contribution to stream flow reduces but
snowmelt contribution increases. Runoff is dominated by snowmelt-induced runoff above 3000 m altitude,
whereas above 4000 m there is also glacier melt contribution in summer. The contribution of rain and snow
to the stream flow varies with time. Stream flow receives higher contributions from snowmelt during summer,
whereas in the monsoon period rainfall contribution exceeds the snowmelt contribution to stream flow. The
average contribution to annual runoff from melting of snow and glaciers is estimated to be about 60% (Singh
and Jain, 2002). Based on a period of 9 years (198586 to 199091 and 199697 to 199899), it was found
that the contribution of winter, spring, summer and autumn seasons to annual flows was about 9%, 15%, 61%
and 15%, respectively, showing the major contribution in summer season.
DATA USED
Daily mean temperature of five stations and rainfall data of nine stations were used in the present study. The
river discharge is measured at the river basin outlet at Bhakra and also at the upstream Namgia. Difference
in discharge of these two stations provided the runoff from the study area (Figure 1b). The locations of the
rain gauges and temperature stations are shown in Figure 1b and details about the stations in Table I. The
altitude of the meteorological stations used in this study varied from 518 to 3639 m. The period of November
through to October was considered as the water year in this study. The meteorological and hydrological data
were made available by Bharka Beas Management Board (BBMB), Nangal Township (Punjab), India. The
BBMB is the organization responsible for data collection and operation of Bhakra dam.
To obtain snow covered area for the study period for preparing depletion curves, remote sensing data
was used. Landsat (MSS, 80 m resolution) data for 2 years (198586 and 198687), IRS (LISS-I, 725 m
resolution) data for 4 years (198788 to 199091) and IRS (WiFS, 180 m resolution) data for 3 years
(199697 to 199899) were procured from National Remote Sensing Agency (NRSA), Hyderabad, India and
processed and used in the study. The snow cover area maps were prepared using ERDAS IMAGINE. Snow
covered area for each elevation zone is plotted against the elapsed time to construct the depletion curves for
the various elevation bands in the basin. Keeping in view the cost involved in procuring remote sensing data,
the satellite data were obtained at the frequency of 15 days or 1 month and extrapolated for intermediate
periods. In order to simulate daily runoff, daily SCA for each zone is required as input to the model.
SIMULATION OF STREAM FLOW

The model developed was calibrated for the study basin using data of 3 years (198586 to 198788). After
calibration of the model, the model was used to simulate daily stream flow using independent data for 6 years
(198889 to 199091 and 199697 to 199899), keeping the model parameters unchanged. The comparison
of daily observed and simulated stream flow for 199697 to 199899 is shown in Figure 4, which shows a
good agreement with respect to peak flows as well as with respect to low flows. Figure 5 shows the different
components of the simulated stream flow, i.e. snowmelt runoff, rainfall runoff and baseflow. It is clear that
all the high peaks are attributed to the rain but prolonged high flows are the result of snowmelt and glacier
melt runoff. The baseflow sustains the flow in the stream during the winter period, when there is no discharge
either from snowmelt or from rainfall. The overall efficiency of the model, explained variance, R 2 (Nash and
Sutcliffe, 1970) over the study period of 9 years was 090, and the difference in volume of computed and
observed stream flow was 33%. The model performed equally well for the six validation years as for the
calibration years. The model efficiency for all different years is given in Table II.
Table I. Hydrometeorological data and elevation of different stations used

in the study: rainfall (P ), temperature (T ) discharge (Q)
Serial number Station Elevation Data used

(m)
1 Bhakra 518 P, T, Q
2 Berthin 657 P
3 Kahu 649 P
4 Suni 625 P
5 Kasol 661 P
6 Rampur 1066 P, T
7 Kalpa 2439 P, T
8 Rakchham 3130 P, T
9 Namgia 2910 Q
10 Kaza 3639 P, T
Figure 4. Observed and simulated daily stream flow for Satluj River at Bhakra for a period of 3 years (1996 97 to 1998 99)
2372
Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

P. SINGH AND L. BENGTSSON
Figure 5. Different components of simulated daily stream flow for Satluj River at Bhakra for a period of 3 years (1996 97 to 1998 99)
Hydrol. Process. 18, 2363 2385 (2004)

Table II. Model efficiency for simulating stream flow for the study
basin for different years
Year/period R2 Volume Root mean

difference, square error
Dv (%) (RMSE)
198586 093 21 029

198687 085 109 030
198788 088 24 041
198889 090 26 032
198990 089 42 031
199091 090 03 028
199697 087 93 037
199798 088 88 030
199899 085 33 034
Over 9 years 090 33 032
ADOPTED CLIMATIC SCENARIOS FOR THE STUDY BASIN

The coupled oceanatmosphere climate model (European Community Hamburg model (ECHAM) C
large-scale geostrophic ocean model (LSG) demonstrate good simulation of the characteristic features of
the Asian summer monsoon as well as the broad circulation features over the Indian subcontinent (Lal et al.,
1992). The output of the ECHAM3 has been used by several investigators for different studies related to
climate change assessment (Lal and Bhaskaran, 1993; Lal and Chander, 1993). Singh and Kumar (1997a)
adopted the climatic scenarios representing the estimates of changes in climatic variables over the study region
(IPCC, 1990; Lal et al., 1992). The adopted changes in temperature were T C 1, T C 2 and T C 3 C, and
those for rainfall were P 10, P 5, P C 5 and P C 10%. In the present study similar scenarios are used. As
in most other reported studies, both temperature and precipitation data were uniformly varied by the projected
amount of changes over the simulation period (Nemec and Schaake, 1982; Ng and Marsalek, 1992; Rango and
Martinec, 1994; Singh and Kumar, 1997a). The changes in temperature were applied as absolute amounts to
the daily data series of the meteorological stations, whereas changes in rainfall were considered as percentage
difference. As large uncertainty is associated with projected change in regional precipitation, both increases
and decreases in average annual rainfall are modelled. This study investigates the effect of temperature on
the hydrological response of the study basin independently and in combination with rainfall. As such, impact
of a total of 20 climatic scenarios was studied.
Higher temperatures accelerate the melting of snow and seasonal snow cover will disappear faster from the
basin under a warmer climate. For application of a hydrological model for climate impact assessment, which
uses snow cover area as input, it is essential to generate the new snow depletion curves for changed climatic
scenarios. Rango and Martinec (1994) outlined a procedure for generating snow depletion curves for warmer
climatic scenarios, and applied the procedure to a number of basins. For a warmer temperature scenario, a
modified depletion curve for a zone is obtained by relating snow covered area to the cumulative snowmelt
corresponding to the temperature scenario. The same approach was followed in this study to obtain modified
depletion curves for an increase in temperature from 1 to 3 C. It should be noted that for a basin with high
relief, i.e. many elevation zones covered with snow, the generation of new depletion curves for the changed
climate becomes a major task of the study. For the present climate in the basin investigated, it usually receives
snow in seven elevation zones out of ten. For each temperature scenario a modified snow depletion curve is
needed for each snow covered zone. Thus, for the considered range of temperature scenarios (1, 2 and 3 C)
for a study period of 9 years, 162 depletion curves had to be prepared. Figure 6 shows the depletion curves
for an increase in temperature from 1 to 3 C. Rango and Martinec (1994) found that if precipitation during
Figure 6. Snow cover depletion curves for different temperature scenarios for zone 6 (3000 3600 m) of the Satluj River basin
during 1996 97)
the snowmelt period in the present climate does not include snowfall, changes in precipitation do not affect
the snow cover. Moreover, they found that the effect of increase in snow precipitation by 1020% during the
summer period on snow cover depletion was insignificant as compared with the effect of temperature. There
is hardly any fresh snowfall during the melting season in the study basin. Therefore, the effect of fresh snow
during the summer period was not included in preparing the new depletion curves.
There is the possibility that under warmer climatic conditions a part of the present snow precipitation may
fall as rainfall and decrease the winter snow accumulation. For the precipitation to change from snow to rain in
the new climate, the air temperature of the present climate must be close to the critical/threshold temperature
(2 C, used in model) during precipitation events. The most probable period for such events is the beginning
and the end of the winter season. Singh and Kumar (1997a) found that an increase in temperature by 13 C
for a Himalayan basin would not much influence the annual snow water equivalent, because the winter air
temperatures in the present climate are far below the critical threshold temperature. However, a minor effect
of increase in temperature on snow cover would take place at lower zones of the basin. This effect is ignored
in the present study because of non-availability of snowfall data.
EFFECT OF CHANGED CLIMATE ON SNOWMELT RUNOFF

Daily snowmelt runoff was simulated for the study basin for T C 1, T C 2 and T C 3 C climatic scenarios over
the study period of 9 years. The simulated daily snowmelt runoff under a T C 2 C temperature scenarios for a
period of 3 years (199697 to 199899) is shown in Figure 7. The snowmelt runoff volume under a warmer
climate is reduced, but the peaks and durations of the melt runoff are not changed much. Late summer melt
runoff is significantly reduced. Similar changes in snowmelt runoff were obtained for all the simulation years
for a warmer climate. As expected, an increase in temperature provides an early response for the snowmelt
runoff along with a change in distribution of melt runoff. Figure 8 shows the changes in mean monthly melt
runoff for a T C 2 C scenario with respect to present conditions for the period of 199697 to 199899.
The effect of warmer climate on mean monthly snowmelt runoff varies from month to month, but maximum
reduction is observed in July/August. Even though the temperature becomes warmer, the simulations show the
warmer temperature cannot produce melt runoff during December and January. For this study basin, change
in distribution is observed to be more pronounced than early melt signatures.
In order to understand the melting trends over the whole basin under warmer climatic scenarios, zone-wise
analysis was performed for the zones that produce meltwater runoff. Most of the studies reported earlier
Figure 7. Effect of increase in temperature on daily snowmelt runoff for Satluj River at Bhakra for a period of 3 years (1996 97 to 1998 99)
Figure 8. Effect of increase in temperature on mean monthly snowmelt runoff for a period of 3 years (1996 97 to 1998 99)
indicate significant reduction in annual snowmelt runoff under warmer climatic conditions in comparison with
56% computed in the present study. The detailed zone-wise analysis, discussed below, indicates that such
changes are possible for basins that have both seasonal snow and permanent snowfields/glaciers, such as the
present Himalayan basin. Daily and cumulative melt distribution over the melt period for three zones, zones 8,
9 and 10 for the year 199697 is given in Figure 9. The distribution of meltwater for lower zones is similar to
zone 8 because the snow cover depletes completely from these zones. These three depicted zones (8, 9 and 10)
have a different character in terms of snow cover area. For zone 8, the snow cover area reduces to zero during
the melt period, whereas for zone 9, SCA reduces but does not reach zero. All of zone 10 remains snow covered
throughout the year. Because of their snow cover distribution, these zones behave in different ways in terms of
generation of meltwater under warmer scenarios. For all the zones melt starts earlier under a warmer climate.
For zone 8, which becomes snow-free in summer, it can be noted that the melt is higher in the beginning of
summer but that the total melt runoff is reduced. The melting ceased owing to non-availability of snow in this
zone. In contrast, zones 9 and 10 produce higher melt throughout the melting period and the accumulated melt
will be higher for these two zones under higher temperatures. An increase in temperature reduces the total
melting period significantly for zone 8 (by more than 1 month), whereas it will be extended for zones 9 and 10.
Figure 9. Daily and cumulative snowmelt runoff for the warmer temperature scenarios for different zones of the study basin for 1996 97
Table III shows the effect of increase in temperature for T C 1, T C 2 and T C 3 C scenarios on annual
melt for elevation zones (510) having snow for 199697. It can be seen that annual snowmelt is decreased
drastically for all the lower elevation zones, where seasonal snow accumulates during winter and melts away
completely during the summer, as for zones 58 in the present case. However, the high zones, zones 9 and
10, which contain snowfields/glaciers throughout the ablation period will produce more melt under a warmer
climate as compared with the present climate. Thus, on the basin scale, reduction in melt from lower zones
(58) is counterbalanced by the increase in melt from upper zones. For example, for 199697, for a T C 2 C
Table III. Zone-wise effect of increase in temperature on cumulative melt for the year 199697
Zones Cumulative Cumulative Cumulative Cumulative Change in Change in Change in

melt for melt for melt for melt for melt for melt for melt for
T C 0 C T C 1 C T C 2 C T C 3 C T C 1 C T C 1 C T C 1 C
scenario scenario scenario scenario scenarioa scenarioa scenarioa
(mm m3 ) (mm m3 ) (mm m3 ) (mm m3 ) (%) (%) (%)
5 648 534 486 453 18 25 30

6 2 933 2649 2469 2344 10 16 20
7 5 270 3731 3225 3057 29 39 42
8 18 124 15 353 14 282 13 606 15 21 25
9 19 190 20 197 20 847 21 496 5 9 12
10 2745 3139 3560 3997 14 30 46
58 26 975 22 267 20 461 19 459 17 24 28
910 21 935 23 336 24 406 25 493 6 11 16
510 48 910 45 603 44 868 44 953 7 8 8
a With respect to T C 0 C scenario.
Figure 10. Changes in mean annual melt for each zone separately and cumulative from all zones for T C 2 C scenario
scenario annual melt runoff from zones 58 was simulated to decrease by 24%, whereas it increased by
11% from zones 9 and 10. The impact of increase in temperature by 2 C on melt from each zone separately
and on cumulative melt from all zones is shown in Figure 10. This zone-wise analysis for all the years
studied indicates an average decrease in melt from lower zones of about 27% for the T C 2 C scenario. Thus,
if glaciers are not available in the basin the reduction in snowmelt will be very significant as reported in
earlier studies. The decrease is counterbalanced by increased melt from glaciers. However, in the long-term
perspective, glaciers will retreat considerably and cover less area and may even disappear from the basin. The
process is, however, beyond the scope of the present study. How the extent of glacierized area will reduce
for the Himalayan region is very uncertain and needs more investigation.
In the study region, there is a high and seasonally varied demand for water supply, irrigation, hydropower
and other uses. Therefore, the impact of climate change on the seasonal water availability was studied.
The hydrological year was divided into four seasons, winter (NovemberFebruary), spring (MarchMay),
summer (JuneAugust) and autumn (SeptemberOctober). The average seasonal and annual analyses for
Table IV. Effect of increase in temperature on seasonal and annual snowmelt runoff, rainfall runoff and total stream flow
over a period of 9 years (198586 to 199091 and 199697 to 199899). All temperatures are in C and RS denotes the
reference scenario
Period Climatic Change in snowmelt Change in rainfall Change in total
Scenario runoff runoff stream flow
Volume Difference Volume Difference Volume Difference

(cumulative (%) (cumulative (%) (cumulative (%)
days) days) days)
NovemberFebruary TC0 RS 12 135 1095

TC1 15 250 135 00 1074 19
TC2 22 833 120 111 1049 42
TC3 32 1666 105 222 1045 46
MarchMay TC0 RS 979 290 1789
TC1 1036 58 289 03 1854 36
TC2 1097 121 286 13 1910 68
TC3 1152 177 284 21 1970 101
JuneAugust TC0 RS 4840 1305 7229
TC1 4502 70 1262 33 6824 56
TC2 4338 104 1188 90 6570 91
TC3 4281 115 1094 162 6413 113
SeptemberOctober TC0 RS 514 382 1766
TC1 475 76 374 21 1671 54
TC2 503 21 360 58 1658 61
TC3 553 76 354 73 1689 44
Annual TC0 RS 6345 2113 11 879
(NovemberOctober) TC1 6027 50 2067 22 11 423 38
TC2 5960 61 1956 74 11 187 59
TC3 6019 51 1837 131 11 118 64
Figure 11. Changes in snowmelt runoff for different seasons for T C 2 C scenario
different components of stream flow for different climatic scenarios are presented in Table IV; comparison
between present conditions and for the T C 2 C scenario is presented in Figure 11. On the seasonal scale, the
warmer climatic scenarios increased the snowmelt in the spring, decreased it in summer and did not affect
Table V. Effect of variation in temperature and precipitation on annual snowmelt runoff, rainfall runoff and total stream flow
over a period of 9 years (198586 to 199091 and 199697 to 199899). The changes in temperature and precipitation are
in C and percent, respectively; RS denotes the reference scenario
Climatic scenario Change in annual Change in annual Change in annual

snowmelt runoff rainfall runoff streamflow
Volume Difference Volume Difference Volume Difference

(cumulative days) (%) (cumulative days) (%) (cumulative days) (%)
T C 0, P C 0 RS 6345 2113 11 879

T C 1, P 10 5996 55 1710 191 10 840 88
T C 1, P 5 6011 53 1585 117 11 096 66
T C 1, P C 0 6027 50 2067 22 11 423 38
T C 1, P C 5 6042 48 2240 60 11 705 15
T C 1, P C 10 6057 45 2414 143 11 987 09
T C 2, P 10 5931 65 1621 233 10 646 104
T C 2, P 5 5947 63 1783 156 10 945 82
T C 2, P C 0 5960 61 1956 74 11 187 59
T C 2, P C 5 5974 58 2127 07 11 465 35
T C 2, P C 10 5990 56 2318 97 11 777 09
T C 3, P 10 5990 56 1508 287 10 575 110
T C 3, P 5 6002 54 1655 217 10 817 89
T C 3, P C 0 6019 51 1837 131 11 118 64
T C 3, P C 5 6031 49 2021 43 11 409 40
T C 3, P C 10 6045 47 2197 37 11 686 16
it much during winter and autumn. However, on the annual scale, owing to the dominant summer influence
on snowmelt, increase and decrease in snowmelt in different seasons led to little variation in total annual
snowmelt (56%).
The climatic scenarios with changed rainfall were also used as input to the model simulations. Table V
shows the results of combined temperature and rainfall scenarios with respect to current climatic conditions.
Changes in rainfall, as expected, showed little influence on snowmelt-induced runoff, but increased rainfall
resulted in increased rainfall runoff.
EFFECT OF CHANGED CLIMATE ON TOTAL STREAM FLOW

The model simulations include snowmelt as well as rain-induced runoff. Therefore, of course, the simulations
of daily stream flow under different climatic conditions were used to study the seasonal and annual impact
of climate change on total stream flow. Figure 12 illustrates the changes in daily stream-flow distribution for
a temperature increase of 2 C. Under warmer climate, stream flow increases in the beginning of the melt
season and produces small peaks primarily generated by an increase in snowmelt. The magnitude of the major
peaks, generally observed in the later part of the summer, was found to be reduced without much change in
their timings. Usually, these peaks are generated by heavy rainfall with a partial contribution from snowmelt.
Reduction of snowmelt during this period influences the peak flows accordingly. Mean monthly distribution
of stream flow under a T C 2 C scenario, as shown in Figure 13, suggests that the maximum decrease in
stream flow occurs in the months of July and August, and the minimum reduction occurs in winter months.
The average changes in total stream flow with an increase in temperature by 2 C for different seasons and
for the whole year are shown in Figure 14, and Figure 15 shows the trend of changes for 13 C. Seasonal
analysis of stream flow under a warmer climate suggests that water availability is reduced for all seasons,
except spring. An increase in temperature from 1 to 3 C is computed to change the stream flow in winter (2
to 5%), spring (4 to 10%), summer (6 to 11%), autumn (4 to 6%). On an annual basis, the runoff
Figure 12. Effect of increase in temperature on daily stream flow for Satluj River at Bhakra for a period of 3 years (1996 97 to 1998 99)
Figure 13. Effect of increase in temperature on mean monthly streamflow for Satluj River at Bhakra for a period of 3 years
(1996 97 to 1998 99)
is expected to be reduced by 46%. These results indicate that the effect of warmer climatic conditions on
the annual stream flow will not be severe, but the seasonal distribution of stream flow is highly affected. The
reduction in stream flow during summer is alarming, because the demand of water is at its maximum during
this period. Decrease of water availability in summer may have severe implications on water supply, irrigation
and hydropower production. Increase in stream-flow runoff in the spring (pre-monsoon season) owing to the
higher amount of snowmelt runoff as a result of a warmer climate may benefit the country, but cannot be a
substitute for the summer deficit.
On both annual and seasonal scales, it is found that evaporation is increased under a warmer climate. Such
an increase in evaporation is possible primarily because of two reasons. First, the warmer climate increases
the evaporation rate and secondly the extent of the snow-free area where evaporation takes place increases.
Therefore, in spite of the increase in snowmelt during winter, the winter stream flow is simulated to decrease in
the present study. Under a warmer climate, the increase in evaporation during winter and spring will dominate
the influence of increased snowmelt, resulting in reduction in winter flow. Some studies from regions where
Figure 14. Changes in stream flow for different seasons for T C 2 C scenario
Figure 15. Effect of increase in temperature on seasonal and annual stream flow
temperature is not very low, indicate an increase in winter discharge as a result of a warmer environment
(Gleick, 1987b; Bultot et al., 1988; McCabe and Ayers, 1989; Cooley, 1990). In these regions much of the
winter precipitation will fall as rain, if the temperature increases a few degrees. In very cold regions, an
increase in temperature would still mean that winter precipitation falls as snow. The IPCC (2001a) suggested
that the greatest changes in snow precipitation are likely to be in the marginal zonesincluding central and
eastern Europe and the southern Rocky Mountain chain, where a small temperature rise reduces snowfall.
Little changes in winter precipitation for the Indian subcontinent were reported by the IPCC (1990).
In the middle and lower part of the basin most of the precipitation is rain. It was found that the effect of
changes in rainfall on runoff was similar for all the temperature scenarios. A change in rainfall by 10%
to 10% changed the runoff by about 5 to 5%. A higher amount of rainfall produces higher stream flow
maintaining the same timings of peak stream flow, because these peaks are mainly generated from rainfall
events. The combined effect of changes in temperature and changes in precipitation are shown in Table V.
Figure 16. Effect of changes in rainfall on stream flow under different climatic scenarios
For the scenarios studied, scenarios T C 3 and P 10 provided maximum reduction in the annual stream
flow (11%) and maximum reduction in annual rainfall runoff (29%). As shown in Figure 16, for the basin
studied it is found that reduction in stream flow owing to an increase in temperature by 1, 2 and 3 C can be
compensated by an increase in rainfall by 8%, 12% and 135% respectively. As mentioned earlier, owing to
lack of snowfall data, the effect of change in total precipitation could not be studied. The main emphasis was
on the changed snowmelt conditions and the consequent influence on runoff.
SUMMARIZING CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION

The impact of different changed climate scenarios on the hydrological response of the Satluj River basin
(22 275 km2 located in the western Himalayan region was studied. The stream flow was separated into
contributions from snowmelt, direct rainfall and baseflow components. Comparison of computed stream flow
under changed climatic scenarios with the simulated response of the basin under present climatic conditions
provided an indication of the influence of climatic change. Changes in distribution of melt runoff were found
to be more pronounced in summer, when the decrease is expected to be about 10% for a temperature increase
by 2 C; annual decrease is less, about 5%. However, considering only the lower and middle part of the
basin, where snow disappears in summer, the simulated reduction in snowmelt runoff is much more, about
27%. From the high zones, which contain snow/glacier throughout the ablation period, more melt is generated
under a warmer climate. Thus, on a basin scale, reduction in melt from lower zones is counterbalanced by the
increase in melt from upper zones. Almost all of the annual runoff reduction will be during summer. This is
alarming because the demand of water for irrigation and hydropower are at its maximum during this period.
On both seasonal and annual scales, evaporation was computed to be significantly increased under warmer
climate, which influences the stream flow accordingly. The increase in evaporation is because of increase
in evaporation rate from the snow-free area. Moreover, an increase in the extent of the snow-free area also
increases the evaporation because there is very little evaporation from the snow covered area as compared
with the snow-free area (Bengtsson, 1980).
The literature shows that most of the studies are carried out for the basins that have snow during winter
and become completely snow-free during the spring and summer months (Gleick, 1987a; Cooley, 1990;
Lettenmaier and Gan, 1990; Nash and Gleick, 1991; Panagoulia, 1991; Rango, 1992; Rango and Martinec,
1994; Xu and Halldin, 1997; Gellens et al., 2000). The impact of climate change on stream flow of such
basins is fairly well understood, suggesting a reduction in melt runoff under a warmer climate and shortening
of the melt season. There are also studies available from basins that have a major part of the area glacierized
(Braithwaite and Olesen, 1989; Lauman and Reeh, 1993; Braun et al., 1994). For the glacierized basins,
increase in temperature will produce higher melt and the ablation period will be extended. Schaper et al.
(2001) suggested that the runoff regime of high-altitude basins will be affected by the response of both the
seasonal snow cover and glaciers to global warming.
Studies are lacking for complex basins that have both seasonal snow and permanent snowfields/glaciers. As
shown in the present study, in a warmer climate the hydrological response of a basin consisting of seasonal
snow and glaciers will be different from that of basins experiencing only seasonal snow or being extensively
covered with glaciers. For the complex basin, melt runoff will reduce from the portion of the basin that becomes
snow-free during winter, but it will increase from the glacierized part of the basin. Reduction in stream flow
owing to a reduced contribution of snowmelt from the lower part of the basin will be counteracted by the
increase in contribution from the upper part of the basin containing glaciers. The present study has shown
such trends. The resultant impact of climate change on stream flow will depend on the relative contributions
of the upper part and lower part of a basin into total stream flow. The changed influence of glaciers in a
warmer climate as compared with today cannot be be quantified easily. The melt rate at a point will increase
in the warmer climate and the extension of glaciers will reduce, if snow precipitation does not increase. If
snow precipitation increases much, the glaciers may grow in size even in a warmer climate. The extent of
the glaciated area will influence the basin runoff and changes to their advancement rate will be greater when
precipitation increases and temperature does not change. There is a need for assessing the effect of climate
change on basins located in complex geographical and climatic regions in general, but also specifically to
investigate potential impacts of projected climate warming on hydrology and water resources in India. For
example, the present study has suggested that a reduction in the water availability in the Satluj basin during
the summer period would influence the water resources of the region.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Financial support provided by the Swedish Institute for the stay of Dr Pratap Singh in Sweden is thankfully
acknowledged.
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HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES

Hydrol. Process. 18, 2363 2385 (2004)

Hydrological sensitivity of a large Himalayan basin to

Received 21 October 2002

USE OF HYDROLOGICAL MODELS UNDER CHANGED CLIMATIC SCENARIOS

A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF SNOWMELT MODEL USED IN PRESENT STUDY

SIMULATION OF STREAM FLOW

Table I. Hydrometeorological data and elevation of different stations used

Serial number Station Elevation Data used

Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hydrol. Process. 18, 2363 2385 (2004)

Year/period R2 Volume Root mean

198586 093 21 029

ADOPTED CLIMATIC SCENARIOS FOR THE STUDY BASIN

EFFECT OF CHANGED CLIMATE ON SNOWMELT RUNOFF

Zones Cumulative Cumulative Cumulative Cumulative Change in Change in Change in

5 648 534 486 453 18 25 30

a With respect to T C 0 C scenario.

Volume Difference Volume Difference Volume Difference

NovemberFebruary TC0 RS 12 135 1095

Climatic scenario Change in annual Change in annual Change in annual

Volume Difference Volume Difference Volume Difference

T C 0, P C 0 RS 6345 2113 11 879

EFFECT OF CHANGED CLIMATE ON TOTAL STREAM FLOW

SUMMARIZING CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION

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