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Technical Pa Global demand for polyethylene to rise 4% pa to almost 100 mln tons in 2018
Global demand for polyethylene to rise 4% pa to almost 100 mln tons in 2018
12-Dec-14
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Global demand for polyethylene to rise 4% pa to almost 100 mln tons in 2018 Page 2 of 7
Global demand for polyethylene resins (H DPE, L L DPE, and L DPE) will rise 4% pa to 99.6 mln metric tons in 2018, valued at U S $ 16 4 bln, as per a
report by Freedonia. Gains will match overall world economic growth, fuelled by an acceleration in consumer spending and manufacturing activity.
Polyethylene will continue to be the most widely used plastic resin in the world, benefiting from its versatility, easy processability, low cost, and
recyclability. The development of ethylene feedstocks from new sources such as shale gas, coal, and biobased materials will also give polyethylene a
price or sustainability advantage relative to other plastic resins. Moreover, continually improving polymeriz ation catalyst technologies will enhance the
performance, customiz ation, and yield of polyethylene resins. H DPE is the most widely used of the three polyethylene resins, accounting for j ust
under half of total demand in 2013. Analyst K ent Furst notes, however, that further increases in polyethylene demand will be limited by a number of
factors: "Polyethylene is a highly commoditiz ed and mature product, and large volume new applications are unlikely to emerge in the foreseeable
future. Additionally, polyethylene (like all plastics) is perceived negatively by many environmentally-minded consumers, and maj or polyethylene
applications such as plastic bags have increasingly become subj ect to regulations and bans."
The Asia-Pacific region will continue to be the largest and fastest growing polyethylene market through 2018, fuelled by strong growth in China, which
alone accounted for nearly one-q uarter of global demand in 2013. I ndia and V ietnam will also be among the world' s most rapidly expanding markets.
H owever, advances in most emerging Asian countries will rise at a slower pace than during the 2008-2013 period. On the other hand, N orth America
will see a significant improvement in polyethylene demand, while the markets in Western Europe and J apan will rebound from recent declines.
Global polyethylene demand is forecast to rise by approximately 3.7 % pa between 2013 and 2018, at a slightly higher level than its growth during the
2003 to 2013 period, says a report from GlobalData. This higher-than-historic increase will occur in the U S and Europe, primarily in R ussia. The U S
will witness a 2.4% growth rate pa during the forecast period, in comparison to its 0.7 % levels from 2003 to 2013. Meanwhile, demand in Europe,
including R ussia, will climb at 2.8% pa from 2013 to 2018, almost three times the level witnessed during the last decade. These demand rises in the
U S and R ussia will be somewhat offset by a lower increase of 4.8% in Asia, compared to its 6 % rate during 2003 and 2013. This will be due primarily
to the region' s slower economic growth.
Carmine R ositano, GlobalData' s Managing Analyst covering Downstream Oil & Gas, says, "L ower feedstock costs from U S shale gas production are
providing the country with a competitive advantage, with increasing investments in its petrochemical plants driving polyethylene demand growth in
both domestic and international markets. Although below recent historical levels, demand in Asia remains fairly robust and will continue to boost
expansion in the global polyethylene market. As a result, polyethylene capacity is now expected to increase at about 5.3% per year between 2013
and 2018, which is higher than the 3.6 % experienced over the last decade. Capacity additions will be most prevalent in the U S , given its advantaged
cost competitive position, and also R ussia, which is augmenting its petrochemical industry to reduce its reliance on imports. N ew capacity will also
continue to come online in Asia, but at a slower-than-historic rate."
GlobalData states that despite the lower estimated cost of crude oil in the forward price curve to 2018, prices for polyethylene will increase at around
1.3% per year up to the end of the forecast period. This is attributable to petrochemical demand increasing at approximately three times the rate of
that for oil. The key trend emerging in the polyethylene market will be the ongoing surplus position in the U S , where excess production will be
directed to expanding markets in S outh America and Asia. Additionally, the lower feedstock and fuel costs for U S plants, compared with those in
Europe, will likely result in future European plant closures and further adj ust global polyethylene trade flows.
Global polyethylene demand growth is expected to ramp up fairly soon, averaging almost 5% pa between 2012 and 2017 , as per N ick V afiadis, S r
director of global polyolefins and plastics for I H S Chemical, as reported by PlasticsN ews. Annual growth of 4.6 % in that five-year span will have
global demand sitting at j ust over 216 bln lbs by 2017 . "That growth exceeds the current level of N orth American demand, " V afiadis said. "That' s like
growing another N orth America in the next five years. The market has mass and momentum." I n N orth America, that momentum is coming from
newfound supplies of natural gas, mainly from shale rock formations. These new supplies can be used to make ethane and then ethylene feedstock.
The discoveries have led to a wave of expansion announcements, including around 11 bln lbs of new PE capacity that' s set to hit N orth America
toward the end of that five-year forecast period. These proj ections don' t even include new capacity from I neos Group and Dow Chemical Co. that j ust
were announced in late March. "S trong margins are leading to capacity increases, " he said. Much of the new N orth American PE capacity will be
targeted at export markets, which are expected to grow by 5% over the forecast period. Domestic demand also is expected to improve toward the end
of that period. One positive impact of the new N orth American PE capacity should be a resurgence for the region' s PE processors, especially makers
of film and bags. As N orth America gets new production capacity, there will be an increase in processor capacity in the U .S . The domestic market will
become more competitive. S ome big U .S . processors will expand to take advantage of the new [ PE] capacity in N orth America. leading to increased
exports of [ PE] finished goods.
Globally, PE capacity additions in that span are expected to exceed 57 bln lbs. But some regions will benefit more than others. Growth in the Middle
East will continue to move forward as countries there invest in infrastructure and a growing population drives consumer markets. Europe' s PE market,
however, is expected to struggle, with demand down and imports on the rise. More than 2 bln lbs about 7 .5% of Europe' s PE capacity is
expected to be shut down by 2017 . I n China, PE capacity and demand are headed up, but operating rates are expected to remain low. The challenge
for that country' s PE market, V afiadis said, is to rationaliz e higher-cost plants and to move away from commodity products. N o new PE capacity is
slated for L atin America through 2017 , which will improve that region' s operating rates. Globally, new PE capacity should lower global operating rates
almost 1%, from 84.2% in 2007 -12 to 83.4 percent in 2012-17 . N orth America' s PE operating rates will be the highest in the world in that 2012-17
period, ranging from 85-90%. "U .S . producers [ from 2012-17 ] will have the luxury of being able to export and get healthy returns to every region in
world. That will keep operating rates high. Post-2015, U .S . producers will have to rely on export sales outside of S outh America. China' s influence will
leverage down export prices and the domestic price as we move to global price parity. When the new PE capacity arrives in N orth America, some
producers "will put an emphasis on domestic supply, " V afiadis added. "S o we could see N orth American prices drop lower for a short period until
global operating rates improve."
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