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journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol
Small streams, diverse sources: Who invests in renewable energy in Finland MARK
during the nancial downturn?
Eva Heiskanena, Mikko Jalasb, , Jouni K. Juntunenc, Heli Nissilc
a
University of Helsinki, Department of Political and Economic Studies, P.O. Box 33, 00014 University of Helsinki, Finland
b
Aalto University School of Arts, Design and Architecture, P.O. Box 21230, 00076 Aalto, Finland
c
Aalto University School of Business, Department of Management Studies, P.O. Box 21230, 00076 Aalto, Finland
A R T I C L E I N F O A BS T RAC T
Keywords: This article addresses the investment gap in renewable energy sources identied by several authors. Examining
Renewable energy investment the case of a country, Finland, which introduced policy measures to diversify its renewable energy portfolio, we
Investor heterogeneity analyse the development of investments in renewable heat and power in response to new policy measures and
Policy mix contextual factors during the downturn period 20092013. We investigate investor heterogeneity, i.e., the
diversity of logics employed by dierent types of RES investors. In spite of a severe nancial recession, we nd
an emergence of new sources of investment. Among these new investor types, we nd diversity in investment
drivers and available options. These include investors mobilized by the feed-in-tari to seek protable targets
and investors such as real estate owners investing in heat pumps for their own use and beneting from low
interest rates. We nd that the diversication of investors supports the diversication in RES sources, and
brings in new investors undeterred by the nancial downturn. Our ndings imply that policy-makers should
recognize that the responses to distinct incentives and pressures vary by investor types. This also means that a
mix of policies is required to maximize the contribution of dierent sectors to lling the renewable energy
investment gap.
1. Introduction et al., 2010; Fagiani et al., 2013; Aguirre and Ibikunle, 2014; Polzin
et al., 2015). Shared understanding exists on the importance of
The role of private investment in bridging the renewable energy economic instruments (Polzin et al., 2015), stable policy schemes
funding gap has raised research and policy interest. Summarizing (Barradale, 2010; Polzin et al., 2015), as well as on the need for
several assessments, Jacobsson and Jacobsson (2012) concluded that tailored technology-specic instruments for emerging technologies
in order to reach the EU 2020 targets, investments of 500700 billion (Johnstone et al., 2010; Polzin et al., 2015). While these studies have
are required for renewable energy supply (RES), and a further 600 sought to explain national dierences and dierences between tech-
billion for transmission and distribution networks. They argue that this nologies, less is known about potential dierences between dierent
gap is not likely to be bridged, since the business logic of the nancial investor types.
sector favors short-term speculative investments rather than renewable Wstenhagen and Menichetti (2012) have reframed the question as
energy projects. One partial solution to this problem might be to attract one of policy impact on investors perceived risks and expected returns
new investors that are not driven by nancial-market logics, which (see also Brer and Wstenhagen, 2009). They argue that dierent
might also enhance the social acceptance of RES (Wstenhagen et al., investors can react to policies in dierent ways, due to cognitive biases
2007). and preference for particular business models (Loock, 2012), i.e.,
Policy is considered an important driver of renewable energy dierent investor logics. An emerging body of research shows that
investment, alongside technological improvements and cost reductions world views, beliefs, policy preferences and attitudes toward technolo-
(Brer and Wstenhagen, 2009; Wstenhagen and Menichetti, 2012). gical risk inuence investor behaviour in renewable energy (Masini and
Research has focused on which policies (e.g. feed-in-taris vs. quota- Menichetti, 2012; Chassot et al., 2014).
based) are more eective in directing investment toward renewables In this context, investor segmentation has been identied as an
(e.g., Menanteau et al., 2003; Dinica, 2006; Barradale, 2010; Marques important research agenda for renewable energy policy (Wstenhagen
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: mikko.jalas@aalto. (M. Jalas).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.03.013
Received 4 February 2016; Received in revised form 2 March 2017; Accepted 6 March 2017
0301-4215/ 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
E. Heiskanen et al. Energy Policy 106 (2017) 191200
and Menichetti, 2012). While most of the existing research has focused in Section 4, discuss their contribution and limitations in Section 5 and
on institutional or professional investors (Wstenhagen and provide policy implications in Section 6.
Menichetti, 2012; Masini and Menichetti, 2013; Polzin et al., 2015),
for instance Bergek et al. (2013) have studied the diversication of 2. Research context: Finnish energy market and policy
investors in renewable electricity in Sweden hence focusing on a wider
set of dierent investor types. Alongside conventional utility-type Finnish energy policy has been industry oriented (Kivimaa and
investors, emerging investors include independent power producers, Mickwitz, 2011) and has favoured large players while excluding small
diversied companies, project developers, farmers, associations, gov- ones (Snkin et al., 2010). Bioenergy is the only renewable energy
ernmental organizations and sole traders. Many of these are not likely source that has consistently featured on the policy agenda since the
to follow an energy-economic logic of levelized lifetime cost. Mignon 1970s (Kivimaa and Mickwitz, 2011), due to the abundance of forest
and Bergek (2012) have identied four main types: (1) prot-driven resources. Bioenergy in particular from black liquor and forest
investors, often independent power producers with large project residues used by the pulp and paper industry has made up a fourth
portfolios, (2) technology-driven investors, who did not compare their of the country's total energy supply (Kosenius and Ollikainen, 2013).
investment to other options but were committed to a particular Additional growth has been expected in small-scale plants for heat or
technology, (3) solution-driven investors, who invested in order to CHP production (Kosenius and Ollikainen, 2013), due to years of low
solve problems, for example divert taxable income into real assets and domestic investment in pulp and paper production.
(4) eciency-driven investors, who invested in order to develop In response to the Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC),
existing assets (e.g., farmland, water or biomass). Dierent types of Finland committed to raise the share of renewable energy from the
investors are also associated with dierent RES technologies; Polzin 2007 level of 2538% by 2020, which requires increased deployment of
et al. (2015) nd that biomass-based technologies have beneted from other renewable sources than bioenergy (Kosenius and Ollikainen,
institutional support and direct investments by local public actors, 2013). The target is to increase annual wind power production to 6
whilst wind power has benetted from measures directly inuencing terawatt hours (TWh) and ambient energy from heat pumps to 8 TWh
the competitiveness of the technology, and Brger et al. (2008) argue (NREAP, 2010), both of which represent more than tenfold growth
that investments in heat provision have more local premises than from 2005 levels. Increase and diversication of bioenergy investments
investments in power production. is also envisaged. The use of wood chips is expected to more than
In addition to policy and investor-specic characteristics, invest- double through subsidies for harvesting and chipping of small-scale
ment in RES is also inuenced by the investor's context. For example, thinning wood, a feed-in-tari (FIT) to compensate for the cost
Wstenhagen and Menichetti (2012) discuss the path-dependence of dierence between wood chips and other fuels, and a FIT for small
renewable energy investments due to investors previous experiences, CHP plants (NREAP, 2010).
and Mignon and Bergek (2012) mention the other (real and perceived) Policies to promote renewable energy have mainly relied on
options available for investors. However, there is little research investment subsidies distributed by the Ministry of Employment and
connecting the behaviour of heterogeneous investors in response to Economy and its regional units. In recent years, greater subsidies (25
policy instruments and the conditions created by the timing of policies 30% of investment costs) have been oered for more innovative
vis--vis other institutional and market (i.e., contextual) factors technologies, such as solar energy and biogas (MoEE, 2014). Smaller
inuencing investor behaviour (Bergek et al., 2013). Such other factors subsidies (1520%) are provided for investments in biomass-powered
can include the logic of nancial markets and market responses to heating plants and in the fuel supply chain (biomass harvesting,
nancial cycles (Jacobsson and Jacobsson, 2012; Eleftheriadis and distribution and processing).
Anagnostopoulou, 2015). Hence, the existing knowledge base calls for Finland was comparatively late among European countries to
better understanding of how policy measures and investor contexts introduce a FIT for renewable electricity, which represented a para-
inuence investments by dierent categories of investors following digm shift from a technology-neutral and least-cost policy to proactive
dierent logics. This article aims to address this research gap with promotion of new energy sources. In 2010, a FIT scheme was
empirical data from Finland. introduced for wind power (with a premium for the rst three years
This article aims to answer the following research question: What to accelerate construction) and power plants using biogas and wood-
policy and contextual factors inuence the diversication of invest- based fuel (Energy Authority, 2015), yet excluding small plants ( <
ments in renewable energy production? We have selected Finland as a 100 kVa) (Snkin et al., 2010). At the same time, and partly to support
case country which has a traditionally large share of renewable energy the FIT, energy taxation was changed resulting in a cost increase for
production by the pulp and paper industry (i.e., a strong element of fossil fuels (especially natural gas) and small electricity consumers
path dependence), but where it has been recognized that new sources (Parkkonen, 2011; IEA, 2013).
of investment are needed to meet the country's RES targets (Kosenius Small-scale investment, in particular by households or small
and Ollikainen, 2013). Finland is a small, unitary country enabling a businesses, has not featured prominently in Finnish energy policy
relatively granular case study. It is also a country where important (Snkin et al., 2010). Unlike other European countries, Finland has not
policy measures were introduced at a time (20092013) when the introduced a FIT for solar power. The combined share of solar heat and
country was suering from low investment levels following the power was less than 0.01% of inland energy consumption (Motiva,
nancial crisis (Banerjee et al., 2015). 2014) and there is no national target for increasing this share
Our contribution is fourfold: (1) We break down total RES (Hirvonen et al., 2015). While for example German investments in
investment development by energy source and investor type in a yet PV built on long-term policy support and learning eects since the
unexplored country context. Following Wstenhagen and Menichetti early 1990s (Seel et al., 2014), Finnish experts remained skeptical
(2012), we do so by examining nancial investment ows rather than about the potential of solar energy (Pesonen, 1996), although the
installed capacity. (2) We examine the drivers and contexts for RES mainstream view is gradually changing (Nissil, 2015; Tekes, 2012).
investment by new investor categories during a period when new policy Some interest in households investment is visible in the NREAP's
measures were introduced in a nancial downturn (20092013) (3) We (2010) expectations of a sharp increase in ambient energy from heat
extend the analysis beyond power production by including heat- pumps. This is mainly left to the market, but there has been a small
provision technologies, and (4) We examine how public policy in government grant (15% of investment cost of ground source heat
combination with other contextual factors has inuenced investment pumps, bioenergy boilers and solar collectors) for homeowners, as well
in renewable energy by new investor categories. The following sections as a tax deduction for the installation costs of new heating systems
present our research context and methodology. We present our results (Heiskanen et al., 2013).
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Table 1 2011.
Investor categories in renewable energy supply (informed by Mignon and Bergek, 2012;
Bergek et al., 2013).
3.2. Creation of a database on RES investment in Finland
Energy companies Companies and business groups operating in energy
retailing or district heat retailing Our focus is on nancial investment ows in physical production
Other industries Industrial investors other than energy companies capacity for four categories of renewable energy: bioenergy, wind, solar
Service sector Diverse service companies (e.g. health care, tourism, and heat pumps, which are used for the generation and recovery of
retail), transport and waste management
Agriculture and forestry Farms, forest owners
heat. Because our focus is on new investor types, we have excluded
Non-prot Municipalities, religious organizations, other NGOs hydropower investments from the main analysis, but we include an
organizations estimate of these investments when presenting data on total invest-
Households Investments by private persons ments and comment on them briey when discussing the role of energy
Other Heat entrepreneurs
companies. Waste incineration plants are excluded due to diculties in
assessing the bio-based share of waste fuels.
We focused on investments in renewable heat and power, rather
than on renewable electricity (cf. Bergek et al., 2013). This focus aimed
to encompass other forms of renewable investment, such as the
3. Methodology ambient energy captured by heat pumps. In order to capture the
increasingly important share of small-scale distributed capacity
In order to uncover the inuence of contextual factors and policy (Frankfurt School, 2014), we included investments by households.
measures on dierent types of investors, we employ a mixed-methods Following Wstenhagen and Menichetti (2012), we focused on nan-
strategy (see Cresswell and Clarck, 2010; Starr, 2014). Our analysis cial ows into the production of renewable heat and power, in terms of
drew on the following research operations: gross investment ( million).
The choice of the timespan to examine was based on several
1. Identication, delimitation and characterization of the main investor considerations. The period 20092013 has seen several new policies
categories active in renewable heat and power investment in Finland introduced in Finland, most notably, the FIT for wind power and RES-
2. Creation of a database: Collection, combination and verication of CHP plants and changes in energy taxes. It has also been a dicult
quantitative data on investment ows into renewable energy pro- period for energy investment globally (Frankfurt School, 2014) due to
duction during the time period 20092013. the nancial crisis, and has seen a sharp downturn in industrial
3. Analysis of investor context, drawing on insider interviews (cf. investment in Finland (ETLA, 2012). Hence, this period oers the
Starr, 2014), published research and economic statistics. opportunity to examine how renewable energy policies, other institu-
4. Comparison of changes in investment to changes in policy, economic tional forces and the overall market context inuence the emergence of
and institutional context relevant to each investor category. new investor categories.
Since there is no central registry of renewable energy investment in
3.1. Identication, delimitation and categorization of investors Finland, several sources of data were required (see Annex A). A main
source of data was the Ministry of Employment and Economy (MoEE),
The investor categories used for this study (Table 1) were informed by which disburses investment subsidies for renewable energy invest-
prior research (Mignon and Bergek, 2012; Bergek et al., 2013), but revised ments and monitors the distribution of similar funds by Regional
during the data collection process on the basis of industry classications Centres for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment
and investment volumes. Alongside such traditional investors as energy (RCEDTE) to projects with a capacity of less than 20 MW (MW) by
companies, we include other industries investing in their own production companies or organizations. We manually processed an Excel le of
sites or diversifying. The service sector includes traditional service sectors more than 1500 grant decisions by the RCEDTEs, as well as two Excel
(retail, logistics), waste management, nancial services, and transport les of 132 grants by the MoEE. These rendered a database of
companies. In order to apply consistent system boundaries, we have investments in bioenergy, heat pumps and solar energy, which experts
included all investments in physical assets dedicated to renewable energy at the ministry consider to cover more than 90% of all investments with
production, including, in the case of bioenergy, production, transport and a capacity of < 20 MW. Records of grants to bioenergy investments by
processing of fuel for heat and electricity. The category agriculture and farms and rural enterprises were obtained from the Ministry of
forestry captures investments made by farmers, forest farmers or forest Agriculture and Forestry (MAF).
machinery operators. Households refers to investments made by private Wind power data are based on statistics from the Finnish Wind Power
persons in their properties, while the other category refers to investments Association complemented by Finnish Energy Authority data regarding
made by new heat entrepreneurs, established to deliver heat by biomass the FIT scheme in 20112013. The Finnish Heat Pump Association
combustion. Several investments have been made jointly by two or more provided data on sales volumes of its member organizations and beyond;
investors from dierent sectors (e.g. pulp and paper and energy): in these these data were complemented with information on large heat-pump
cases, the investments have been divided by ownership shares. installations from the Finnish Refrigeration Enterprises Association.
In our analysis, energy companies and the pulp and paper industry Large investments with a capacity of > 20 MW are within the scope of
represent traditional investor categories. While households have also the EU Emission Trading Scheme, and hence not eligible for subsidies.
traditionally invested in bioenergy, they are rarely considered as an These data was collected from the Finnish Energy Industries, the three
investor. In our analysis, we consider them one of the new investor large pulp and paper groups in the country and the Finnish Food and
categories, due to growing investments in heat pumps and solar energy. Drink Industries Federation and one non-member food company.
The service sector, agriculture and forestry, non-prot organizations There are no central subsidy registries for households investments
and heat entrepreneurs represent new investor categories that are not in RES. We collected sales data from the industry association on heat
traditionally highlighted in energy policy. pumps, and purchased survey data on investments in room-based
In the analysis we make no dierence between equity and debt. biomass heating from the Building Information Foundation, RTS. Data
Hence banks as lenders are not included as investors. On the other on wood and pellet boilers were calculated on the basis of Vihola and
hand, when investments are made by equity funds, we list these Heljo (2012) and expert estimates from the Bioenergy Association of
investments as service sector investment. Currently this category is Finland. For solar collectors and solar photovoltaics (PV), data were
most relevant for wind and biogas, following the FIT introduced in collected from unpublished statistics by Statistics Finland.
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Plausibility and compatibility checks were made to ascertain the 4. Results: RES investment and its drivers and contexts in
validity of the data. These include sales volumes and market shares of Finland, 20092013
dominant companies, used to ascertain the correct order of magnitude,
and more aggregate statistics (for example, our calculation of total 4.1. RES investment and main investor categories
household energy investments, derived bottom-up, were compared to
surveys of household investments in new heating systems). Overlaps In spite of the dicult investment environment, investments in
between data sources were eliminated (for example, gures calculated renewable energy production technology increased slightly during the
from investment subsidies by the rural development agency were analyzed period, from about 900 M in 20091030 M in 2013, albeit
cleaned of heat entrepreneurship data derived from an annual survey). with a dip in 20112012. Fig. 2 presents the trends per RES type and
Plausibility checks were made with experts and industry associations. Annex C details the developments in each category. Bioenergy invest-
Nonetheless, it is possible that some sources of error remain. Since ments dipped in 20112012, largely due to a lack of large ( > 20 MW)
dierent data sources were used, the household bioenergy investment investments by energy companies and pulp and paper companies in
data might be slightly overestimated (Vihola and Heljo, 2012), whereas those years. Heat pump technology made a major breakthrough before
those of other investor categories might be slightly underestimated the analyzed period (Vihola and Heljo, 2012; Heiskanen et al., 2011),
Fig. 1. which is visible as diminishing annual growth rates in investments in
this technology. Wind energy investments were impacted by a major
3.3. Analysis of investor context, drawing on insider interviews and policy change, as the FIT was implemented in 2011. Finally, solar
published data sources investments are small in absolute numbers. In this category, the
decreased price of PV panels contributed to reduced total investments
In order to complement our quantitative data and understand the even though new investors have entered the market and the installed
logic and context of emerging investor categories, 27 insider inter- capacity has grown. Up until 2013, grid connected systems were few
views (cf. Starr, 2014) have been conducted with experts (5), industry and o-grid installations dominated the PV sector.
associations (5), funding bodies (5), equipment providers (5) and In spite of the annual variability in large-scale bioenergy invest-
major investor types (7). These interviews varied in length (1590 min) ments, other investors have contributed quite steadily. Fig. 3 presents
and some respondents were interviewed repeatedly. The aim was to the investments volumes per investor type. The rapid growth of the
understand reasons underlying the growth or decline of investment service sector is a sum of their increased presence in wind power and
during the period, hence the interviews focused on market develop- heat pump investments. As we classify equity funds as services, their
ments and the insiders views on factors inuencing them. Careful engagement in wind power through the FIT scheme has increased the
notes were made of the interviews and they were analyzed from a nancial contribution of the service sector. Parallel to this, the
realist, factual perspective as well as compared with each other to increased availability of heat pumps in the power range of 1 MW has
triangulate observations. Often, the industry insiders also provided enabled various commercial buildings to make investments in this
further statistical data points and other relevant market data sources. technology. Interestingly, the greatest single investor in wind energy
These data have been complemented with published research and stems from a joint eort of a retail chain and a biofuel producer.
reports (for more details, see Annex B).
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Fig. 8. Key policy changes and contextual factors relevant for RES investments.
renewable heat and power in Finland, in spite of limited policy support, (2010) have suggested, overall nancial support mechanisms set the
with investments made with a low cost of capital and out of perceived framework, but the responses to incentives depend on a wide range of
need or for improved comfort rather than with high expectations for investor-specic factors. Investor preferences are one of these and they
returns. are related to the investor's core activity (such as nancial services,
Our research design, focusing on a period of persistent economic waste streams in industrial production or real estate ownership).
downturn in Finland, suggests a wider range and greater complexity of However, the investor's context is equally important: what sources of
contextual factors that inuence investments, alongside policy. capital the investor can draw on, and how other than energy policies
Previous research has included GDP mainly as a control variable and nancial cycles inuence the investment context by inuencing the
(e.g., Polzin et al., 2015). Yet, the eects of economics cycles vary: core activity from which the renewable energy investments are derived
while Eleftheriadis and Anagnostopoulou (2015) suggest that Greek (Brger et al., 2008; Barradale, 2010). For many of the investor
investments were halted by lack of capital during the nancial crisis, categories, energy investments are not merely energy investments,
RES deployment in Finland has benetted from the low interest rates but investments in real estate, comfort, resource utilization, even local
of the downturn period. Extending the analysis of Bergek et al. (2013), employment. Non-professional investors are also sensitive to the
a granular analysis by investor categories shows how some investments supply and perceived reliability of new technologies. It follows that
are closely linked to nancial activity in the building sector and others, investments decisions are not so focused on which RES technology to
like the case of heat entrepreneurship, are more closely connected to choose, but whether and when to engage with suitable technologies,
regional economic development, whereas investments that are driven given the investor's resource base.
by regulation (EPBD directive) are less sensitive to economic cycles. Our ndings concerning the investment logics of dierent investor
Moreover, we see that dierent sectors can respond to economic cycles categories are tentative, and based on a small number of interviews,
at dierent rates: in our data, household investments have responded statistical data and published material. Five years is also a short period
little to the nancial crisis. While more research is needed to identify to identify trends. Our ndings are specic to one country, but
the exact combination of factors that inuence investment levels in contribute to the research agenda on investor heterogeneity
dierent categories, our study provides a rst identication of relevant (Wstenhagen and Menichetti, 2012; Bergek et al., 2013; Mignon
factors and investor types. and Bergek, 2012) by highlighting the diverse contexts, motives and
Our research suggests that further work should consider a wider cost of capital of dierent investor types. Further research in dierent
taxonomy of energy investors, and a wider range of investor logics and country contexts is merited on how and why dierent types of investors
contextual factor, since energy policy instruments may engender very choose to invest in renewable energy, and what alternative investments
dierent responses among investor categories. As Johnstone et al. they are likely to consider.
Table 2
Investment logics of the new investor categories.
Other industries Investments mainly depend on reduction of energy bills, optimization of existing resources and availability of suitable technologies.
Service sector Diverse logics, depending on primary line of business. For transport companies, investments open up new business. Commercial and residential real
estate owners make investments to enhance the value of property, reduce energy bills and anticipate building energy standards. Financial services
include profit-driven investors.
Agriculture and forestry Investments primarily made to develop existing assets and to reduce energy bills and enhance self-sufficiency. Sometimes offers a new line of
business (heat entrepreneurs).
Non-prot organizations Investments made to reduce energy bills. Environmental considerations can lift certain solutions into the decision set.
Households Diverse logics for different types of investments. Heating system investments made due to need, to enhance comfort and reduce energy bills. Solar
systems due to interest in technology and environment.
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