Brazil|EconomicForecasts|20162020Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020

GDPGrowthRate(/brazil/gdp 1.70 1.9 1.3 0.1 0.21 3 percent [+](/brazil/gdpgrowth)

growth/forecast)
UnemploymentRate 7.50 7.9 8.3 8.7 9.1 6.1 percent [+]
(/brazil/unemploymentrate/forecast) (/brazil/unemployment
rate)
InflationRate(/brazil/inflation 10.67 11 11.5 10.9 10.5 3.1 percent [+](/brazil/inflationcpi)
cpi/forecast)
InterestRate(/brazil/interest 14.25 14.25 14.5 14.5 14.5 10 percent [+](/brazil/interest
rate/forecast) rate)
BalanceofTrade(/brazil/balanceof 6240.00 3444 1979 1385 1772 1000 USD [+](/brazil/balanceof
trade/forecast) Million trade)

GovernmentDebttoGDP 58.91 66.95 67.05 67.14 69.38 64.41 percent [+]

(/brazil/governmentdebtto (/brazil/government
gdp/forecast) debttogdp)

Markets Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020

Currency 4.15 4.05 4.13 4.17 4.21 3.21

(/brazil/currency/forecast)
StockMarket(/brazil/stock 37717.11 40800 39700 38700 37600 50200 points
market/forecast)
GovernmentBond10Y 16.79 16.74 17.23 18.05 18.87 24.62 percent
(/brazil/governmentbond
yield/forecast)
GDP Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020

GDPGrowthRate 1.70 1.9 1.3 0.1 0.21 3 percent

(/brazil/gdpgrowth/forecast)
GDPAnnualGrowthRate 4.50 3.6 2.9 1.4 2.7 2.8 percent
(/brazil/gdpgrowth
annual/forecast)
GDP(/brazil/gdp/forecast) 2346.12 2282 2264 2250 2244 2221 USD
Billion

GDPConstantPrices 297446.01 280312 279647 277479 281787 351878 BRL

(/brazil/gdpconstant Million
prices/forecast)
GrossNationalProduct 1446839.04 1456943 1466747 1406839 1396839 1466839 BRL
(/brazil/grossnational Million
product/forecast)
GrossFixedCapital 268429.88 265010 266430 264001 265430 305565 BRL
Formation(/brazil/gross Million
fixedcapital
formation/forecast)
GDPpercapita(/brazil/gdp 5969.68 5971 5990 6008 6026 6430 USD
percapita/forecast)
GDPpercapitaPPP 15412.29 15414 14504 14530 14504 18793 USD
(/brazil/gdppercapita
ppp/forecast)
GDPFromAgriculture 16964.27 17466 17479 17477 17478 18522 BRL
(/brazil/gdpfrom Million
agriculture/forecast)
GDPFromConstruction 17478.99 17349 16685 16956 17233 18210 BRL
(/brazil/gdpfrom Million
construction/forecast)
GDPFromManufacturing 31717.80 28380 29005 30935 30159 33521
(/brazil/gdpfrom
manufacturing/forecast)
GDPFromMining 2576.20 2501 2543 2503 2472 2858 BRL
(/brazil/gdpfrom Million
mining/forecast)
GDPFromPublic 40108.42 39093 39892 40342 39882 40676 BRL
Administration(/brazil/gdp Million
frompublic
administration/forecast)
GDPFromServices 178943.56 173052 174127 174594 177047 208723 BRL
(/brazil/gdpfrom Million
services/forecast)
GDPFromTransport 8732.59 8335 8416 8670 8719 9140 BRL
(/brazil/gdpfrom Million
transport/forecast)
GDPFromUtilities 5907.21 5770 5793 5869 5811 5737 BRL
(/brazil/gdpfrom Million
utilities/forecast)
Labour Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020

UnemploymentRate 7.50 7.9 8.3 8.7 9.1 6.1 percent

(/brazil/unemployment
rate/forecast)
EmployedPersons 22.53 22.63 22.37 22 22.65 23.59 Million
(/brazil/employed
persons/forecast)
UnemployedPersons 1.83 1.91 2.1 2 1.9 1.7 Million
(/brazil/unemployed
persons/forecast)
LaborForceParticipation 55.40 55.67 55.45 55.61 55.59 56.5 percent
Rate(/brazil/laborforce
participationrate/forecast)
LabourCosts(/brazil/labour 104.55 103 104 104 104 104 Index
costs/forecast) Points

Wages 2200.78 2197 2186 2185 2197 2306 BRL/Month

(/brazil/wages/forecast)
MinimumWages 880.00 880 880 880 880 1280 BRL/Month
(/brazil/minimum
wages/forecast)
Population 202.77 203 204 204 205 213 Million
(/brazil/population/forecast)
RetirementAgeWomen 60.00 60 60 60 60 60
RetirementAgeWomen 60.00 60 60 60 60 60
(/brazil/retirementage
women/forecast)
RetirementAgeMen 65.00 65 65 65 65 65
(/brazil/retirementage
men/forecast)
EmploymentChange 3.67 3.27 0.58 1.58 1.62 1.16 percent
(/brazil/employment
change/forecast)
EmploymentRate 51.30 51.65 51.63 51.51 51.54 51.56 percent
(/brazil/employment
rate/forecast)
NonFarmPayrolls 596.20 78.13 9.49 9.13 101 20.01 Thousand
(/brazil/nonfarm
payrolls/forecast)
Productivity 104.55 103 99 104 105 110 Index
(/brazil/productivity/forecast) Points

WagesInManufacturing 114.90 116 116 116 117 120 Index

(/brazil/wagesin Points
manufacturing/forecast)
Prices Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020

InflationRate 10.67 11 11.5 10.9 10.5 3.1 percent

(/brazil/inflationcpi/forecast)
InflationRateMom 0.96 0.49 0.38 0.74 0.73 0.72 percent
(/brazil/inflationrate
mom/forecast)
ConsumerPriceIndexCPI 4493.17 4592 4668 4715 4772 5571 Index
(/brazil/consumerprice Points
indexcpi/forecast)
CoreInflationRate 9.45 9.64 9.7 9.1 9.75 4.5 percent
(/brazil/coreinflation
rate/forecast)
GDPDeflator(/brazil/gdp 6.90 7.07 6.8 6.53 6.26 6.04 percent
deflator/forecast)
ProducerPrices 660.53 668 672 674 675 677 Index
(/brazil/producer Points
prices/forecast)
ExportPrices(/brazil/export 116.30 117 117 117 117 125 Index
prices/forecast) Points

ImportPrices(/brazil/import 113.97 114 121 119 118 130 Index

prices/forecast) Points

FoodInflation(/brazil/food 12.10 9 10 10.1 9.9 6 percent

inflation/forecast)
ProducerPricesChange 11.31 11.5 11.5 10.8 10.7 7.35 percent
(/brazil/producerprices
change/forecast)
Money Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020

InterestRate(/brazil/interest 14.25 14.25 14.5 14.5 14.5 10 percent

rate/forecast)
CashReserveRatio 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 Percent
(/brazil/cashreserve
ratio/forecast)
MoneySupplyM0 255288.92 271291 292171 312860 333516 747497 BRL
(/brazil/moneysupply Million
m0/forecast)
MoneySupplyM1 333678.82 335557 355535 376359 398083 922258 BRL
(/brazil/moneysupply Million
m1/forecast)
MoneySupplyM2 2213853.25 2256472 2311522 2369216 2429073 3600620 BRL
(/brazil/moneysupply Million
m2/forecast)
MoneySupplyM3 4649847.67 4864586 5019751 5178993 5342544 8719548 BRL
(/brazil/moneysupply Million
m3/forecast)
BanksBalanceSheet 5517804.51 6438738 6724428 7030947 7360091 17999072 BRL
(/brazil/banksbalance Million
sheet/forecast)
ForeignExchangeReserves 356464.00 352602 351112 349975 349483 548788 USD
(/brazil/foreignexchange Million
reserves/forecast)
LoanstoPrivateSector 863441.00 892484 845854 837302 838660 1277070 BRL
(/brazil/loanstoprivate Million
sector/forecast)
DepositInterestRate 10.02 10.09 9.71 9.33 9.33 8.25 percent
(/brazil/depositinterest
rate/forecast)
CentralBankBalanceSheet 2767020852.00 3010586947 3167529990 3321672084 3474975459 5653036618 BRL
(/brazil/centralbank Thousand
balancesheet/forecast)
LoanGrowth(/brazil/loan 0.60 0.16 0.26 0.26 0.61 0.6 percent
growth/forecast)
Trade Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020

BalanceofTrade 6240.00 3444 1979 1385 1772 1000 USD

(/brazil/balanceof Million
trade/forecast)
Exports 16783.00 17349 14147 14279 14800 16000 USD
(/brazil/exports/forecast) Million

Imports 10543.00 11035 12169 12794 13028 17000 USD

(/brazil/imports/forecast) Million

CurrentAccount 2931.00 3718 3249 3502 2859 5112 USD

(/brazil/current Million
account/forecast)
CurrentAccounttoGDP 4.17 4.26 4.12 3.97 3.82 4.64 percent
(/brazil/currentaccountto
gdp/forecast)
ExternalDebt 340583.03 339720 341645 358953 367149 433825 USD
(/brazil/external Million
debt/forecast)
TermsofTrade 102.06 102 102 102 102 102 Index
(/brazil/termsof Points
trade/forecast)
CapitalFlows(/brazil/capital 2847.40 4613 5003 5160 5234 5294 USD

flows/forecast) Million

ForeignDirectInvestment 4930.00 5772 6213 6105 5740 7005 USD

ForeignDirectInvestment 4930.00 5772 6213 6105 5740 7005 USD
(/brazil/foreigndirect Million
investment/forecast)
Remittances 1909.90 2523 2528 2532 2537 3501 USD
(/brazil/remittances/forecast) Million

GoldReserves(/brazil/gold 67.20 67.2 67.2 67.2 67.2 67.2 Tonnes

reserves/forecast)
CrudeOilProduction 2396.00 2229 2229 2401 2401 2401 BBL/D/1K
(/brazil/crudeoil
production/forecast)
TerrorismIndex 2.21 1.39 1.23 1.07 1.07 1.28
(/brazil/terrorism
index/forecast)
TouristArrivals 5813.00 5814 5819 5824 5828 5807 Thousand
(/brazil/tourist
arrivals/forecast)
Government Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020

GovernmentDebttoGDP 58.91 66.95 67.05 67.14 69.38 64.41 percent

(/brazil/governmentdebtto
gdp/forecast)
GovernmentBudget 0.60 2.5 2.5 2.5 0.71 0.72 percentof
(/brazil/government GDP
budget/forecast)
GovernmentBudgetValue 43057.00 50148 48194 48352 48648 48883 BRL
(/brazil/governmentbudget Million
value/forecast)
GovernmentSpending 95633.23 92126 92304 92332 92336 92337 BRL
(/brazil/government Million
spending/forecast)
GovernmentRevenues 121500.00 108400 110411 108890 108031 106726 BRL
(/brazil/government Million
revenues/forecast)
CreditRating 34.92
(/brazil/rating/forecast)
Business Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020

BusinessConfidence 36.50 38 37.5 49.44 39.44 50.21

(/brazil/business
confidence/forecast)
ManufacturingPMI 45.60 43.1 45.8 47.3 49.8 53
(/brazil/manufacturing
pmi/forecast)
ServicesPMI 43.50 41.3 43.5 45.4 47.8 52.7 Index
(/brazil/services Points
pmi/forecast)
CompositePmi 43.90 42.81 51.98 52.1 50.1 53.63 Index
(/brazil/composite
pmi/forecast)
IndustrialProduction 12.40 11.24 8.41 7.95 6.71 2.53 percent
(/brazil/industrial
production/forecast)
IndustrialProductionMom 2.40 0.3 0.12 0.1 0.15 0.15 percent

(/brazil/industrial
productionmom/forecast)
productionmom/forecast)
ManufacturingProduction 12.50 2.84 1.14 1.14 1.4 2.2 percent
(/brazil/manufacturing
production/forecast)
CapacityUtilization 77.00 76.82 76.79 76.79 76.79 76.79 percent
(/brazil/capacity
utilization/forecast)
ChangesinInventories 5366.16 7020 1020 2153 1140 7141 BRL
(/brazil/changesin Million
inventories/forecast)
CarProduction(/brazil/car 142880.00 182915 184593 183011 191886 185997 Units
production/forecast)
CarRegistrations 228.00 196 200 216 216 216 Thousand
(/brazil/car
registrations/forecast)
TotalVehicleSales 165986.00 165517 165860 160860 159940 175925
(/brazil/totalvehicle
sales/forecast)
LeadingEconomicIndex 137.37 137 137 138 137 150 Index
(/brazil/leadingeconomic Points
index/forecast)
SmallBusinessSentiment 36.90 37.29 37.16 37.1 37.08 37.07
(/brazil/smallbusiness
sentiment/forecast)
CompetitivenessIndex 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.27 4.16 Points
(/brazil/competitiveness
index/forecast)
CompetitivenessRank 75.00 75 75 75 69.68 23.3
(/brazil/competitiveness
rank/forecast)
CorruptionIndex 43.00 40 40 40 40 48 Points
(/brazil/corruption
index/forecast)
CorruptionRank 69.00 71 71 71 71 65
(/brazil/corruption
rank/forecast)
EaseofDoingBusiness 116.00 120 120 120 115 115
(/brazil/easeofdoing
business/forecast)
MiningProduction 1.00 1.2 0.1 0.5 3.84 4.2 percent
(/brazil/mining
production/forecast)
Consumer Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020

ConsumerConfidence 96.30 96.18 96.35 97.05 96.5 99

(/brazil/consumer
confidence/forecast)
RetailSalesMoM 1.50 0.08 0.49 1.27 0.05 0.05 percent
(/brazil/retailsales/forecast)
RetailSalesYoY 7.80 0.6 0.13 2.13 7.33 2 percent
(/brazil/retailsales
annual/forecast)

ConsumerSpending 937194.67 842390 872390 1000560 837195 957195 BRL

(/brazil/consumer Million
(/brazil/consumer Million
spending/forecast)
ConsumerCredit 1500513.00 1555457 1596059 1636290 1676154 2266605 BRL
(/brazil/consumer Million
credit/forecast)
PrivateSectorCredit 2922447.00 2982026 3024633 3067609 3110311 3732078 BRL
(/brazil/privatesector Million
credit/forecast)
BankLendingRate 64.75 58.46 65.46 68.03 68.64 52.43 percent
(/brazil/banklending
rate/forecast)
GasolinePrices 0.92 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.78 USD/Liter
(/brazil/gasoline
prices/forecast)
Housing Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020

HomeOwnershipRate 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 73.49 percent

(/brazil/homeownership
rate/forecast)
Taxes Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020

CorporateTaxRate 34.00 34 34 34 34 34 percent

(/brazil/corporatetax
rate/forecast)
PersonalIncomeTaxRate 27.50 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 percent
(/brazil/personalincometax
rate/forecast)
SalesTaxRate(/brazil/sales 19.00 19 19 19 19 19 percent
taxrate/forecast)
SocialSecurityRate 39.80 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 percent
(/brazil/socialsecurity
rate/forecast)
SocialSecurityRateFor 28.80 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 percent
Companies(/brazil/social
securityratefor
companies/forecast)
SocialSecurityRateFor 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent
Employees(/brazil/social
securityratefor
employees/forecast)

Countries(/countries) Indicators(/indicators) Calendar(/calendar) Markets(/currencies) Forecasts(/forecasts)

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BrazilHoldsKeyRateat14.25%(/brazil/interestrate)
BrazilInflationRateEdgesUpto10.67%(/brazil/inflationcpi)
BrazilTradeSurplusHitRecordHigh(/brazil/balanceoftrade)
BrazilUnemploymentRateUnexpectedlyFallsto7.5%(/brazil/unemploymentrate)
BrazilInflationRateHitsDoubleDigits(/articles/12092015112542.htm)
BrazilTradeSurplusNarrowsto6MonthLow(/articles/12012015174656.htm)
BrazilGDPContractsfor6thStraightQuarter(/brazil/gdpgrowthannual)
BrazilianEconomyContracts1.7%(/brazil/gdpgrowth)
BrazilLeavesSELICRateSteadyat14.25%(/articles/11252015220223.htm)
BrazilUnemploymentRateUpto7.9%(/articles/11192015114325.htm)
BrazilInflationRateAcceleratesto12YearHigh(/articles/11062015113524.htm)
BrazilTradeSurplusBeatsExpectations(/articles/11032015174349.htm)
BrazilUnemploymentRateBelowExpectations(/articles/10222015122150.htm)
BrazilLeavesKeyRateSteadyat14.25%(/articles/10212015235250.htm)
BrazilInflationRateSlowsSlightlyto3MonthLow(/articles/10072015132504.htm)
BrazilTradeSurplusat3MonthHigh(/articles/10012015192426.htm)
BrazilUnemploymentRateHighestSinceMarch2010(/articles/09242015131615.htm)
BrazilInflationRateEasesSlightlyinAugust(/articles/09102015131242.htm)
BrazilHoldsSELICRateat14.25%inSeptember(/articles/09032015002513.htm)
BrazilTradeSurplusWidensinAugust(/articles/09012015192616.htm)

+ (news)

Latest

USJoblessClaimsRiseto6MonthHigh(/unitedstates/joblessclaims)
ECBLeavesRatesUnchanged(/euroarea/interestrate)
MalaysiaLeavesKeyRateat3.25%,CutsRRR(/malaysia/interestrate)
SpainTradeGapWidens19%inNovember(/spain/balanceoftrade)
HongKongInflationRateEdgesUpto2.5%(/hongkong/inflationcpi)
BrazilHoldsKeyRateat14.25%(/brazil/interestrate)
KenyaHoldsKeyRateat11.5%(/kenya/interestrate)
BoCHoldsKeyRateat0.5%(/canada/interestrate)
USHousingStartsUnexpectedlyFallinDecember(/unitedstates/housingstarts)
USInflationRateat12MonthHigh(/unitedstates/inflationcpi)
UKUnemploymentRateatNear10YearLow(/unitedkingdom/unemploymentrate)
SouthAfricaInflationRateat12MonthHigh(/southafrica/inflationcpi)
MalaysiaInflationRateat4MonthHigh(/malaysia/inflationcpi)
NewZealandInflationRateLowestSince1999(/newzealand/inflationcpi)
BoESignalsRatesLikelytoRemainatRecordLow(/unitedkingdom/interestrate)
TurkeyLeavesRatesUnchangedfor11thStraightMonth(/turkey/interestrate)
ChineseQuarterlyGDPGrowthSlowsinQ4(/china/gdpgrowth)
EuroAreaInflationRateConfirmedat0.2%(/euroarea/inflationcpi)
UKInflationRateat11MonthHigh(/unitedkingdom/inflationcpi)
HongKongUnemploymentRateUnchangedat3.3%(/hongkong/unemploymentrate)

+ (../countrylist/news)
Economic Forecasts for Brazil including a longterm outlook for the next decades, plus mediumterm
expectationsforthenextfourquartersandshorttermmarketpredictionsforthenextreleaseaffectingthe
Brazileconomy.1/22/2016

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