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A. Asimakopulos
To cite this article: A. Asimakopulos (1986) Finance, Liquidity, Saving, and Investment, Journal
of Post Keynesian Economics, 9:1, 79-90, DOI: 10.1080/01603477.1986.11489601
Download by: [University of California Santa Barbara] Date: 09 May 2016, At: 23:15
A. ASIMAKOPULOS
Introduction
The post Keynesian approach to economic theory builds on Keynes's
emphasis on the key role of investment in determining the level and rate
of growth in economic activity (this emphasis is also to be found in
Kalecki's writings). Desired saving is brought into equality with in-
vestment as a result of both the multiplier and income distribution
effects of changes in investment. It is this investment which determines
saving, rather than the reverse.
For the rate of investment in fixed capital to increase, entrepreneurs
must be confident enough about the prospects of future profitability to
commit themselves to the development and ownership of productive
facilities, which require the provision of finance by banks, the expendi-
ture of funds, and the assumption of liabilities by entrepreneurs that
reduce their liquidity. 1 This requirement for finance-whose availabil-
ity is a necessary condition for an increase in investment-was first
treated explicitly in connection with a theory of aggregate demand by
Kalecki in 1935 and by Keynes in 1937. 2 The banking system thus has a
crucial role in making possible an increase in investment, since it must
supply the money needed to enable the investing firms to increase their
purchases of capital goods, as well as to supply the money required to
meet the higher transactions demand which follows the increase in
economic activity brought on by higher investment. 3
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with its own method of satisfying this demand or regulating its position. It may re-
fer to the position of an entrepreneur intending to purchase goods, with his demand
for liquidity at an end as soon as the purchase is made. It may refer to the position
of an entrepreneur who has invested in working capital in anticipation of an in-
crease in demand and whose liquidity is restored when the goods he has produced
are sold. It might refer to the position of an entrepreneur who has invested in fixed
capital on the basis of short-term credits and whose liquidity position is improved
when he has funded these debts through the sale of long-term securities or equity.
Finally, it might refer to the position of the banking system, which becomes more
"unliquid" (Keynes, 1973, p. 219) as it increases its assets and liabilities.
82 JOURNAL OF POST KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS
short-term bank loans, S when they expect to be able to fund these short-
term loans by subsequent long-term issues at reasonable terms. They
are, in this way, speculating on the term structure of interest rates.
Alternatively, they may obtain long-term finance in the new issue
market, but in that case, since investment and saving have not yet
increased, it is those purchasing the securities with increased bank
loans who are speculating on the term structure of interest rates. They
are borrowing short and lending long.
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Kregel confuses the question of the need for both short- and long-
term finance. He makes a one-sided interpretation of Keynes's state-
ment that investment finance "may be provided either by the new issue
market or by the banks; which it is makes no difference" (Keynes,
1973, p. 208) when he writes: "In his exposition Keynes assumed that
the extra money-finance required by firms in advance of investment
expenditure is raised by issue of securities in the long-term capital
market ... " (Kregel, 1984-85, p. 149). Not only did Keynes give the
possibility that investing firms might initially borrow short term equal
emphasis in his June 1937 paper, from which the quotation given at the
beginning of this paragraph is obtained, but it was regarded as the
"characteristic" process in Keynes's December 1937 article (Keynes,
1973, p. 217). He recognized in that article the need to extend his
treatment of finance and investment. Keynes wrote: "[Ohlin] com-
pelled me to attend to an important link in the causal chain which I had
previously overlooked, and he has enabled me to make an important
improvement in my analysis" (pp. 215-216). This "important link"
was the explicit recognition of the increased bank credit required to
make possible an increase in investment in fixed capital. In making this
"improvement" Keynes refers to the two-fold process for an increase
in investment, where firms first obtain short-term finance with the
expectation of being able to eventually fund, at reasonable terms, these
short-term obligations by a long-term issue (p. 217).6 But quite apart
5Use of short-term bank loans is the normal way in which firms finance increases in
their working capital when they foresee an increase in demand for their output.
Graziani (1984) discusses the financing of working capital as part of his consider-
ation of Keynes's "revolving fund of finance."
6Minsky (1982b) also refers to the financing of investment "as a two step process,
in which short-term borrowings are used to finance investment in process and inter-
nal funds and longer term debts are used to finance the holding of the capital assets
that result from investment" (p. 10). Short-term credits might be used by the in-
vesting as well as by the capital-goods producing firms. For the latter, it is the nor-
mal way of financing the increase in working capital required to increase output,
while the former might use short-term credit to make initial payments before turn-
ing to the securities market.
FINANCE, SAVING, AND INVESTMENT 83
case oflong-term bonds than for any other commodity; and this means
that the Keynesian theory, though a 'special case,' gives, nevertheless,
a fair approximation to reality" (Kaldor, 1960, p. 52). This assessment
is very much affected by economic conditions at the time (1939) when
Kaldor's article was written. Prices and wages had been relatively
stable, or even falling, in the 1930s, stocks of raw materials were
plentiful, and there was excess productive capacity in many industries.
Increases in both investment and consumption demand could be readily
accommodated without serious price effects. In the absence of infla-
tionary fears, the term structure of interest rates could be expected to
remain relatively stable. In other circumstances, as we shall see below,
a higher propensity to save may facilitate an increase in investment.
Kaldor noted that Keynes's statement "the investment market can
become congested through shortage of cash. It can never become con-
gested through shortage of saving" (1973, p. 222) does not hold in an
open economy. Domestic saving will not increase by the amount of
domestic investment, because part of the increased expenditure is di-
rected to foreign goods (and increases in foreign incomes). If foreign-
ers do not use their trade surplus to purchase long-term domestic
bonds, then eventually the "long-term rate rises relatively to the short-
term rate simply because, owing to a shortage of savings, speculators
are required to expand continuously the size of their commitments: and
there are limits to the extent to which this is possible" (Kaldor, 1960, p.
51). The expectation of government deficits that are large in relation to
domestic saving would also tend to increase long-term interest rates,
constraining investment even if short-term interest rates were kept
relatively low by monetary expansion (Asimakopulos, 1983, p. 231).
available to be used over again" (Keynes, 1973, p. 219). But for the
banks to become temporarily unliquid again, something must happen to
restore their initial liquidity position. This "something" is the repay-
ment of bank debt equal to the initial increase in loans, a repayment that
would normally be made out of saving directed to the purchase of
securities, as the issuing firms use the proceeds to retire short-term
debt. This is recognized in Davidson's re-statement of Keynes's posi-
tion: "The additional short-term finances obtained from the banking
system and used initially to pay for the resources committed to the
increment in capital goods output becomes a revolving fund which is
being constantly extinguished when firms repay their bank loans"
(Davidson, 1978, p. 276). In the same vein Davidson had noted: "The
revenue from the sale of new placements . . . will be sufficient to pay
off the outstanding short-term bank loans, thus making the bank credit
available again to finance another project" (p. 276).9 When the in-
creased rate of investment is maintained, as in Kaldor's example pre-
sented in the preceding section, the "lack of liquidity" that made
possible this increase is never made good, but its extent is limited by the
increased saving, which keeps extinguishing old bank debts as new
ones are created. A steady rate of increase in investment would require
ever-increasing bank debt. There is, of course, no particular advantage
for the banking system in maintaining its initial liquidity position. It
9Davidson also recognized the importance of a relatively stable term structure of in-
terest rates if the availability of short -term finance is to foster higher investment. He
noted that, when new issue underwriters fear a fall in the prices of long-term securi-
ties, they may be "reluctant to aid in the initial financing of the net investment
projects .... Consequently, financial market conditions, which may be self-im-
posed by financial institutions, can restrict growth even if entrepreneurs have the
proper animal spirits" (Davidson, 1978, p. 276). The importance of long-term fi-
nance for investment purposes has been stressed by Minsky. "While the banking
system does provide business with short-term financing ... the financing of invest-
ment and of capital asset ownership involves longer term equity and debt
instruments" (Minsky, 1982a, p. 99).
FINANCE, SAVING, AND INVESTMENT 87
grows and profits by increasing its assets and liabilities, as long as only
a very small proportion of loans turns sour.
IORobinson used the term "bastard golden age" for the steady growth situation
where the fear of inflationary pressure results in financial checks that keep invest-
ment below the rate that would produce full employment. "A bastard golden age
sets in at a fairly high level of real wages when organised labour has the power to
oppose any fall in the real-wage rate. Any attempt to increase the rate of accumula-
tion, unless it is accompanied by a sufficient reduction in consumption out of prof-
its, is then frustrated by an inflationary rise in money-wage rates. In such a situa-
tion, the rate of accumulation is limited by the 'inflation barrier' "(Robinson, 1962,
pp.58-59).
88 JOURNAL OF POST KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS
the face of monetary stringency and high interest rates. Financial con-
ditions that would cause a downturn in a particular historical situation
may be insufficient to restrain investment in another. There is implicit
recognition of this in Joan Robinson's comments on finance in connec-
tion with her theory of accumulation. She wrote: "For purposes of our
model [finance] is best treated, along with the 'animal spirits' of the
firms, as an element in the propensity to accumulate of the economy"
(Robinson, 1962, p. 43). There could obviously be some trade-off
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between buoyant "animal spirits" (that can influence the lending prac-
tices of financial institutions, as well as the investment decisions of
firms) and stringent conditions of finance, which can maintain the rate
of accumulation. 11
Conclusion
The post Keynesian approach to economics, which is based on the
works of Keynes and Kalecki, emphasizes the importance of invest-
ment behavior in determining the growth and cyclical movements of
capitalist economies. This behavior is difficult to predict or model,
because it is the factors "which determine the rate of investment which
are most unreliable, since it is they which are influenced by our views
of the future about which we know so little" (Keynes, 1973, p. 121).
The availability of increased finance, both short and long term, is
needed to make possible higher investment, but the provision of long-
term finance at reasonable terms, and thus the achievement of higher
investment, may, in certain circumstances, be contingent on the expec-
tation of a substantial increase in the flow of savings into the securities
markets. The post Keynesian position-as exemplified by the writings
of Kaldor and Robinson referred to here-is broader than the view of it
taken by Kregel. Credit expansion by the banks may not be sufficient to
keep long-term interest rates from rising when domestic savings are
insufficient to finance increased investment, either because of the re-
sulting trade deficits or because of the diversion of savings to finance
llInvesting firms might also be prepared to change the usual proportion of short-
and long-term credits in financing increased investment if long-term rates of inter-
est are high relative to short-term rates. The American financial economist Henry
Kaufman noted in an interview that in the 1984-85 period the high long-term rates
led American firms to "take greater interest rate risks" by financing' 'many of their
requirements through floating interest rates or through short-term credit instru-
ments, such as commercial paper" (The Financial Post, Toronto, March 9, 1985).
FINANCE, SAVING, AND INVESTMENT 89
economy over any period of time. There are occasions with consider-
able unemployment and excess productive capacity, where investment
is low and entrepreneurs are very cautious and fearful of committing
themselves to new projects. An increase in the propensity to consume-
a lower propensity to save, in such cases-would increase effective
demand, output, and eventually investment. The necessary finance,
both short and long term, for this increased investment could be avail-
able at reasonable terms and without concern about the adequacy of the
flow of savings. At other times, when the urge to accumulate is high
and inflationary pressures are strong, or when large projected govern-
ment deficits raise concern over the balance between expected savings
and the demand for long-term finance, an increase in the propensity to
save would ease financial constraints and allow higher investment. The
possible relations between finance, investment, and saving in the post
Keynesian approach are thus complex. They very much depend on
particular historical circumstances, and no general statement about
their relationship which does not recognize these circumstances can
adequately represent the post Keynesian position.
REFERENCES
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Journal of Economics, 1983, 7,221-233.
Davidson, Paul. Money and the Real World. 2nd ed. London: Macmillan, 1978.
Graziani, Augusto. "The Debate on Keynes' Finance Motive." Economic Notes. 1984. 13. 5-
32.
Kaldor, Nicholas. Essays on Economic Stability and Growth. London: Duckworth. 1960.
Kalecki. M. "A Macrodynamic Theory of Business Cycles." Econometrica. 1935.3. 327-
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90 JOURNAL OF POST KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS
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