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TheOpinionPages

ACrisisattheEdgeofPhysics
JUNE5,2015

GrayMatter

ByADAMFRANKandMARCELOGLEISER

DOphysicistsneedempiricalevidencetoconfirmtheirtheories?
Youmaythinkthattheanswerisanobviousyes,experimental
confirmationbeingtheveryheartofscience.Butagrowingcontroversyatthe
frontiersofphysicsandcosmologysuggeststhatthesituationisnotsosimple.
AfewmonthsagointhejournalNature,twoleadingresearchers,George
EllisandJosephSilk,publishedacontroversialpiececalledScientific
Method:DefendtheIntegrityofPhysics.Theycriticizedanewfound
willingnessamongsomescientiststoexplicitlysetasidetheneedfor
experimentalconfirmationoftodaysmostambitiouscosmictheoriesso
longasthosetheoriesaresufficientlyelegantandexplanatory.Despite
workingatthecuttingedgeofknowledge,suchscientistsare,forProfessors
EllisandSilk,breakingwithcenturiesofphilosophicaltraditionofdefining
scientificknowledgeasempirical.
Whetherornotyouagreewiththem,theprofessorshaveidentifieda
mountingconcerninfundamentalphysics:Today,ourmostambitiousscience
canseematoddswiththeempiricalmethodologythathashistoricallygiven
thefielditscredibility.
Howdidwegettothisimpasse?Inaway,thelandmarkdetectionthree

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yearsagooftheelusiveHiggsbosonparticlebyresearchersattheLarge
HadronCollidermarkedtheendofanera.Predictedabout50yearsago,the
Higgsparticleisthelinchpinofwhatphysicistscallthestandardmodelof
particlephysics,apowerfulmathematicaltheorythataccountsforallthe
fundamentalentitiesinthequantumworld(quarksandleptons)andallthe
knownforcesactingbetweenthem(gravity,electromagnetismandthestrong
andweaknuclearforces).
Butthestandardmodel,despitethegloryofitsvindication,isalsoadead
end.Itoffersnopathforwardtouniteitsvisionofnaturestinybuildingblocks
withtheothergreatedificeof20thcenturyphysics:Einsteinscosmicscale
descriptionofgravity.Withoutaunificationofthesetwotheoriesasocalled
theoryofquantumgravitywehavenoideawhyouruniverseismadeupof
justtheseparticles,forcesandproperties.(Wealsocantknowhowtotruly
understandtheBigBang,thecosmiceventthatmarkedthebeginningoftime.)
Thisiswherethespecterofanevidenceindependentsciencearises.For
mostofthelasthalfcentury,physicistshavestruggledtomovebeyondthe
standardmodeltoreachtheultimategoalofunitinggravityandthequantum
world.Manytantalizingpossibilities(liketheoftendiscussedstringtheory)
havebeenexplored,butsofarwithnoconcretesuccessintermsof
experimentalvalidation.
Today,thefavoredtheoryforthenextstepbeyondthestandardmodelis
calledsupersymmetry(whichisalsothebasisforstringtheory).
Supersymmetrypredictstheexistenceofapartnerparticleforeveryparticle
thatwecurrentlyknow.Itdoublesthenumberofelementaryparticlesof
matterinnature.Thetheoryiselegantmathematically,andtheparticles
whoseexistenceitpredictsmightalsoexplaintheuniversesunaccountedfor
darkmatter.Asaresult,manyresearcherswereconfidentthat
supersymmetrywouldbeexperimentallyvalidatedsoonaftertheLarge
HadronColliderbecameoperational.
Thatsnothowthingsworkedout,however.Todate,nosupersymmetric
particleshavebeenfound.IftheLargeHadronCollidercannotdetectthese
particles,manyphysicistswilldeclaresupersymmetryand,byextension,

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stringtheoryjustanotherbeautifulideainphysicsthatdidntpanout.
Butmanywont.Somemaychooseinsteadtosimplyretunetheirmodels
topredictsupersymmetricparticlesatmassesbeyondthereachoftheLarge
HadronColliderspowerofdetectionandthatofanyforeseeablesubstitute.
Implicitinsuchamaneuverisaphilosophicalquestion:Howareweto
determinewhetheratheoryistrueifitcannotbevalidatedexperimentally?
Shouldweabandonitjustbecause,atagivenleveloftechnologicalcapacity,
empiricalsupportmightbeimpossible?Ifnot,howlongshouldwewaitfor
suchexperimentalmachinerybeforemovingon:tenyears?Fiftyyears?
Centuries?
Consider,likewise,thecuttingedgetheoryinphysicsthatsuggeststhat
ouruniverseisjustoneuniverseinaprofusionofseparateuniversesthatmake
upthesocalledmultiverse.Thistheorycouldhelpsolvesomedeepscientific
conundrumsaboutourownuniverse(suchasthesocalledfinetuning
problem),butatconsiderablecost:Namely,theadditionaluniversesofthe
multiversewouldliebeyondourpowersofobservationandcouldneverbe
directlyinvestigated.Multiverseadvocatesarguenonethelessthatweshould
keepexploringtheideaandsearchforindirectevidenceofotheruniverses.
Theopposingcamp,inresponse,hasitsownquestions.Ifatheory
successfullyexplainswhatwecandetectbutdoessobypositingentitiesthat
wecantdetect(likeotheruniversesorthehyperdimensionalsuperstringsof
stringtheory)thenwhatisthestatusofthesepositedentities?Shouldwe
considerthemasrealastheverifiedparticlesofthestandardmodel?Howare
scientificclaimsaboutthemanydifferentfromanyotheruntestablebut
usefulexplanationsofreality?
Recalltheepicycles,theimaginarycirclesthatPtolemyusedand
formalizedaroundA.D.150todescribethemotionsofplanets.Although
Ptolemyhadnoevidencefortheirexistence,epicyclessuccessfullyexplained
whattheancientscouldseeinthenightsky,sotheywereacceptedasreal.But
theywereeventuallyshowntobeafiction,morethan1,500yearslater.Are
superstringsandthemultiverse,painstakinglytheorizedbyhundredsof
brilliantscientists,anythingmorethanmoderndayepicycles?

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Justafewdaysago,scientistsrestartedinvestigationswiththeLarge
HadronCollider,afteratwoyearhiatus.Upgradeshavemadeitevenmore
powerful,andphysicistsareeagertoexplorethepropertiesoftheHiggs
particleingreaterdetail.Iftheupgradedcolliderdoesdiscover
supersymmetricparticles,itwillbeanastonishingtriumphofmodernphysics.
Butifnothingisfound,ournextstepsmayprovetobedifficultand
controversial,challengingnotjusthowwedosciencebutwhatitmeanstodo
scienceatall.
AdamFrank,aprofessorofastrophysicsattheUniversityofRochester,and
MarceloGleiser,aprofessorofphysicsandastronomyatDartmouthCollege,
arecofoundersofNPRs13.7CosmosandCultureblog.

AversionofthisopedappearsinprintonJune7,2015,onpageSR5oftheNationaleditionwith
theheadline:ACrisisattheEdgeOfPhysics.

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