Shayna Simona

Homework Assignment 2

Public polls must have a variety of components to consider it either strong or weak. A strong

poll would consist of a large sample size, various demographics, reliable methodology in

obtaining data, and lack of bias. On the other hand, a weak poll would consist of a small sample

size, lack of variety in samples, unreliable methodology in obtaining data, and bias. After looking

through various public polls, I have found two polls that either demonstrate strong or weak data.

The first poll is, Americans Hate Justin Bieber. I consider this poll weak in data and its

conclusion because of the small sample size, methodology, unclear property in question, lack of

demographic diversity, and bias. The second poll is For the First Time, Americans Favor

Legalizing Marijuana. I consider this to be a strong poll because its large sample size, clear

property in question, and a variety of demographics. The two polls are similar in structure;

however, these few components distinguish them from being strong or weak public polls.

The weakly supported 2013 public poll that I analyzed is, Americans Hate Justin Bieber.

The poll consists of five hundred and seventy one individuals. In this poll, participants were

asked whether they favored, unfavored, or were unsure of a certain genre of music, musical

artist, and other random celebrity questions. Although the poll is titled, Americans Hate Justin

Bieber, he was not the center of the poll. They were also asked if they liked a particular artist,

such as Adele, Taylor Swift, Lady Gaga, etc. This poll did not have a clear property in question.

There was no main focus on a question for the sample. The questions ranged from favorable type

of music genre to celebrity life to preference over celebrity. The questions were very random and
all over the place. The sample size only consists of five hundred and seventy one adults, over

eighteen. This sample size is not large enough to use as opinion for the entire nation. One

thousand voters or more is necessary to have, in order to avoid hastiness. This poll is only a little

more than half the necessary amount; thus, too small. This also leads to survey sampling bias

because of the small sample size. The abstract claims that the survey was conducted nationwide;

however, there is no indicator that they survey reached a variety of states. They did not discuss

which regions they conducted the interviews. The methodology of this poll was through

automated telephone interviews. I found that there is a nonresponse bias, due to the telephone

interviews. Only people who have a strong opinion are most likely to respond to the survey.

Also, this leaves no room for the peoples opinion who do not have phones. I have also noticed a

selection bias. There is nothing that says that the selection was random. More than seventy

percent of the respondents are white. Also, sixty percent are over forty-six years old. The only

characteristic that is evenly distributed is their choice of political party . The target population,

based off the polls introduction, is Americans. I would rate this poll a two out of ten and there is

no real property in question, the sample size is much too small, and there are a few bias. The

only thing that I liked was that it shows the respondents demographics and that they included a

not sure option. Based off of the majority of unfavorable factors, this poll demonstrates a weak

conclusion based off its weak data.

The next 2013 public poll that I found to have strong support for its conclusion is, For First

Time, Americans Favor Legalizing Marijuana. The polls property in question is, Do you

believe that Marijuana should be legalized?. The poll consisted of 1,028 adults, eighteen and

over, living in all fifty states and the District of Columbia. This sample size is large enough to

avoid hastiness, since it is over a thousand participants. The methodology in obtaining the data is
through telephone interviews. Fifty percent included landline respondents and the other fifty

percent included cell phone respondents. There was a minimum quota per region in order to

cover all the states. Phone numbers were selected by random-digit-dial methods. The samples

were weighted to cover the national demographics, such as race, gender, age, education, region,

etc. The methodology makes this poll more reliable because of its various demographics of

respondents, coverage of all regions, and randomized selection process. There is a small

nonresponsive bias in regards to the selection process. The people with no phones have no

chance in being selected. However, in regards to that, I believe that the poll still has accurate data

because it covers the whole nation. The poll also claims to have covered all demographics, as

well. The target population is Americans, specifically the younger generation. The data shows

that there is a higher chance of people in the younger age group saying yes to legalizing

marijuana. I would rate this poll a nine out of ten. The one point off is because of the

nonresponsive bias. Other than that, the poll seems to cover all the regions in the US (including a

variety of demographics), there is a clear property in question, the sample size is large enough,

and the selection process is random. These characteristics give evidence that this public poll has

strong enough data to successfully prove its conclusion.

Based off of the two public polls, there were a lot of differences that distinguished them

from either having a strong or weak conclusion. The property in question is not clear in the first

poll, for the main point to of the poll is unclear. The second poll has a clear question of what is

being asked of the sample population. In the first poll, the sample size is too small to represent a

population, as opposed to the second poll. The methodology in the two poll are similar because

they both used telephone surveys. This both leads to a nonresponsive bias. The exception to the

second poll is that it still makes sure to cover each state and all types of demographics. Both
polls target population is Americans; however, only the second poll is able to accurately depict it

because its large enough sample size and variety of demographics. The rating I have for the two

polls vastly differ. The first poll is given a two out of ten, while the second poll received a nine

out of ten. The property in question, sample size, sample demographics, sample methodology,

target population, and biases are large factors that are involved when determining the polls

strength or weakness to its conclusion.

Works Cited

Jensen, Tom. "Public Policy Polling." Public Policy Polling. N.p., 9 May 2013. Web. 01 Apr.
2017. <http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_Music_050913.pdf (Links to
an external site.)>.

Swift, Art. "For First Time, Americans Favor Legalizing Marijuana." Gallup.com. N.p., 22
Oct. 2013. Web. 01 Apr. 2017. <http://www.gallup.com/poll/165539/first-time-americans-favor-
legalizing-marijuana.aspx>.