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Case Vignette
Stephen, a 52-year-old white jogger with a body- other physician to discuss his fathers blindness,
mass index (BMI, the weight in kilograms divided which is related to type 2 diabetes. Both his par-
by the square of the height in meters) of 25, wants ents have hypertension that is controlled with
you to assess his cardiovascular risks. He had medication; neither smokes.
scheduled his visit after taking his father to an- Stephen is here to discuss the results of blood
tests that had been performed before the day of You think this is a great opportunity for
the visit. Im an accountant, Doc, and I live by shared decision making and explain that al-
the numbers. I dont want to be my father in 20 though his LDL cholesterol level is not high, he
years, he says. He tells you that he has recently has three risk factors for heart disease and
increased his running regimen to 3 miles a day stroke (he has a low HDL cholesterol level,
and that he smokes a half-pack a day during tax smokes, and is a man). You explain that the
season, when he is under stress. new risk calculator, developed by the American
So what do the numbers say, and whats this College of Cardiology (ACC) and the American
calculator thing? he asks. His total cholesterol Heart Association (AHA), estimates his 10-year
level is 180 mg per deciliter (4.65 mmol per li- risk of an event such as a heart attack or stroke
ter), the high-density lipoprotein (HDL) choles- at 10.9%, and the new guidelines recommend
terol level is 35 mg per deciliter (0.90 mmol per statin treatment for that level of risk. The new
liter), the triglyceride level is 150 mg per deciliter guidelines assess the risks of death from ath-
(1.70 mmol per liter), and the calculated low- erosclerotic heart disease, nonfatal heart at-
density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol level is 115 tack, and stroke and do not call for laboratory
mg per deciliter (3.00 mmol per liter). His blood testing of LDL cholesterol once treatment with
pressure is 130/85 mm Hg. a statin is started.
common use, and thereafter. Func- sentative of broad U.S. populations, dations on the basis of those risk func-
tions developed with the use of data since the data are from clinical trials or tions.
collected after statins and daily aspirin from studies in which there is a sub-
Disclosure forms provided by the author are
became standard therapies would be stantial healthy volunteer effect; fur-
available with the full text of this article at
contaminated by these treatments thermore, some of the studies lack NEJM.org.
and interventions. Such modeling precise baseline measurements. It is
would describe history as shaped by unlikely, for example, that physicians From Boston University and the Harvard Clini-
the risk factors and subsequent treat- participating in these studies who had cal Research Institute both in Boston.
ment rather than assessing the risk a total cholesterol level of 260 mg per
solely or mainly on the basis of base- deciliter (6.70 mmol per liter) would 1. Stone NJ, Robinson J, Lichtenstein AH, et al.
line risk factors. not immediately have begun taking a 2013 ACC/AHA guideline on the treatment of
blood cholesterol to reduce atherosclerotic car-
Even with the above considera statin, and thus they would have con- diovascular risk in adults: a report of the Ameri-
tions, it is important to investigate the taminated the 10-year outcome with can College of Cardiology/American Heart As-
application of the new functions to this treatment. Furthermore, the selec- sociation Task Force on Practice Guidelines.
contemporary data, which reflect the tion of the cutoff point for risk of 7.5% Circulation 2013 November 12 (Epub ahead of
use of intensive treatments. Such actually reflects a recalibration (since print).
2. Goff DC Jr, Lloyd-Jones DM, Bennett G, et
studies are under way. The RAWG re- recent clinical trial data indicate a pos- al. 2013 ACC/AHA guideline on the assessment
port2 includes three evaluations made 1
sible benefit with even a 5% risk) to of cardiovascular risk: a report of the American
with the use of recent data. They show take into account the possibility that College of Cardiology/American Heart Associa-
that the new functions do overesti- the risk functions may still have a bias tion Task Force on Practice Guidelines. Circula-
tion 2013 November 12 (Epub ahead of print).
mate risk, as was expected. Ongoing toward overestimation related to treat- 3. National Cholesterol Education Program
analyses of these data sets show wide- ment and secular trends. (NCEP) Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation,
spread introduction of cholesterol The cholesterol guidelines were and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in
and blood-pressure treatments in ad- written with all of the above in mind. It Adults (Adult Treatment Panel III). Third report
dition to increases in aspirin use and was essential to consider data that of the National Cholesterol Education Program
(NCEP) Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation,
smoking cessation after the baseline were representative of U.S. popula- and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in
measurements. tions and that were not contaminated Adults (Adult Treatment Panel III): final report.
Some have complained that the by the many treatments and interven- Circulation 2002;106:3143-421.
RAWG did not use more contemporary tions available today. The RAWG at- 4. Ridker PM, Cook NR. Statins: new Ameri-
can guidelines for prevention of cardiovascular
data sets for developing the new risk tempted to develop risk functions that disease. Lancet 2013;382:1762-5.
functions.4 In addition to the con- were based mainly on the effects of
founding treatment issues mentioned risk factors, and the cholesterol guide- Copyright 2014 Massachusetts Medical Society.
above, these data sets are not repre- line group made treatment recommen-
You also explain that the new guidelines have TREATMENT OPTIONS
shifted the approach to using statins and that Which one of the following three approaches
they have generated controversy. You tell him that, would you recommend for Stephen?
in fact, statin treatment would not be recom-
mended under the old guidelines, which assess 1. Do not begin statin therapy.
Choose an
the risk of coronary heart disease, even though 2. Begin statin therapy, and monitor LDL cho-
option and
comment on the predicted risk would be higher. You have been lesterol.
your choice using the Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III calcula- 3.Begin statin therapy, but do not monitor
at NEJM.org tor in your practice, and Stephens 10-year calcu- LDL cholesterol.
lated risk according to that guideline is 13%. At
that level of risk, with an LDL cholesterol level To aid in your decision, three experts in the
below 130 mg per deciliter (3.40 mmol per liter), field defend these approaches in the essays below.
statin therapy would not be advised. In addition, another expert provides background
You tell him that you want more time to con- information on the new guidelines regarding
sider the new guidelines, and the two of you cholesterol levels and the risk of atherosclerotic
agree to meet again in 2 weeks. Stephen, with cardiovascular disease. On the basis of your read-
his hand on the doorknob, says, Doc, I really ing of the published literature, your clinical expe-
want to know what you would do. rience, your understanding of recent guidelines,
After he leaves, your nurse tells you that your your knowledge of the patients history, and your
practice has 500 patients who may need similar assessment of the experts opinions, which option
reassessments if you decide to use the new cal- would you choose? Make your choice and offer
culator. your comments at NEJM.org.
O p t i on 1
Drug Administration safety labeling changes for by a low-to-moderate dose of a statin if his risk
the class of statins.9 The estimated incidences of remains elevated. It is reasonable to monitor his
statin-related diabetes associated with low-to- lipid, glucose, and glycated hemoglobin levels
moderate-intensity and high-intensity statin while he is receiving the statin an approach
therapy are 1 case and 3 cases per 1000 persons that is supported by evidence from prospective
per year, respectively.8 Stephens risk is higher, studies and indirectly by observations from ran-
however, because he has the metabolic syn- domized trials. The statin dose should be re-
drome.3 Although statin-related diabetes has not duced if warranted by the side-effect or safety
been shown to increase the risk of atheroscle- profile, and the dose should be increased, if
rotic cardiovascular disease, the long-term mac- necessary, to achieve a reduction of at least 20 to
rovascular and microvascular effects remain 30% in the LDL cholesterol level (there is poten-
unknown. tially more benefit if a greater reduction is
Dose adjustment is one reasonable approach achieved). In primary prevention, drug safety is
to balancing the benefits and risks of statins. especially important, since the risks of long-
The 2013 ACCAHA guidelines, citing the lack term therapy should be balanced with achievable
of randomized trials testing various goals for benefits, and therapy should be tailored to the
LDL cholesterol levels, indicate that a reduction individual patient.
in LDL cholesterol levels may be useful as a Disclosure forms provided by the author are available with the
marker of adherence and response to treatment full text of this article at NEJM.org.
but should not be a goal of therapy.8 Even so, all From the Divisions of Cardiovascular and Preventive Medicine,
the statin trials monitored LDL cholesterol levels Brigham and Womens Hospital, and Harvard Medical School
and showed that the reduction in the risk of both in Boston.
in a person with Stephens medical profile who justed according to laboratory test results; this is
does not stop smoking is about 50 that is, the same approach that is now recommended in
about 50 people like him would need to be the Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) IV guidelines.15
treated for 10 years for 1 person to avoid the I would explain that this is good news, since he
risks detailed in the vignette. It also means that will not have to incur the cost and inconvenience
among people with his medical profile, about of returning for this testing. I would also ex-
98% will have the same outcome, whether or not plain that this approach does not imply that
they take a statin. There is some controversy cholesterol is not important, but that we now
over the risk calculator, but even if the risk cal- think about statins as risk-reduction medica-
culator overestimates the risk by 20%, the num- tions in the same way that we consider aspirin.
ber needed to treat would stay in the same ball- We are no longer treating to reach a target LDL
park (about 60).14 To reap the benefits of statin cholesterol level. We are treating to lower risk,
therapy, Stephen would need to take one pill a using medications and doses that have been
day and incur the costs of treatment and the proven effective for lowering risk, not those that
small risk of adverse effects, many of which are are effective just for lowering the LDL choles-
reversible. terol level.
It is important to note that if Stephen were to Disclosure forms provided by the author are available with the
quit smoking, the number needed to treat would full text of this article at NEJM.org.
almost double. At that point, his risk would be From the Section of Cardiovascular Medicine and the Robert
lower than the treatment recommendation thresh- Wood Johnson Foundation Clinical Scholars Program, Depart-
old of the guideline. Nevertheless, he still may ment of Medicine, Yale University School of Medicine; the De-
partment of Health Policy and Management, Yale School of
decide that the magnitude of benefit is a suffi- Public Health; and the Center for Outcomes Research and
ciently large motivation to choose statin therapy. Evaluation, YaleNew Haven Hospital all in New Haven, CT.
How might the discussion go? If Stephen
1. Kannel WB, Higgins M. Smoking and hypertension as pre-
failed to quit smoking, I might explain that his dictors of cardiovascular risk in population studies. J Hypertens
LDL cholesterol level is not very high but that he Suppl 1990;8:S3-S8.
has more than a 1 in 10 chance of a major heart 2. Quitting smoking among adults United States, 2001
2010. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2011;60:1513-9.
problem or stroke in the next decade and that 3. Ridker PM, Pradhan A, MacFadyen JG, Libby P, Glynn RJ.
statins can lower the risk. And then I would Cardiovascular benefits and diabetes risks of statin therapy in
explain the magnitude of the benefit and discuss primary prevention: an analysis from the JUPITER trial. Lancet
2012;380:565-71.
costs and potential harms. I would also empha- 4. Tuomilehto J, Lindstrm J, Eriksson JG, et al. Prevention of
size that taking statins does not diminish the type 2 diabetes mellitus by changes in lifestyle among subjects
importance of quitting smoking and that the with impaired glucose tolerance. N Engl J Med 2001;344:1343-
50.
decision about statins can be reevaluated in the 5. Downs JR, Clearfield M, Weis S, et al. Primary prevention of
future. I would be sure that he felt supported in acute coronary events with lovastatin in men and women with
the decision and knew that reasonable people average cholesterol levels: results of AFCAPS/TexCAPS. Air
Force/Texas Coronary Atherosclerosis Prevention Study. JAMA
might make different choices. 1998;279:1615-22.
With regard to the need for monitoring, I 6. Ridker PM, Rifai N, Clearfield M, et al. Measurement of
would tell him that he will not need to return Creactive protein for the targeting of statin therapy in the pri-
mary prevention of acute coronary events. N Engl J Med 2001;
regularly to have his cholesterol levels checked. 344:1959-65.
I would explain that the new guidelines have 7. Alberti KG, Eckel RH, Grundy SM, et al. Harmonizing the
recognized that the major studies did not in- metabolic syndrome: a joint interim statement of the Interna-
tional Diabetes Federation Task Force on Epidemiology and Pre-
clude the need for monitoring lipid levels.8 vention; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; American
Monitoring is recommended only for assessing Heart Association; World Heart Federation; International Ath-
adherence, but I would tell him that I do not erosclerosis Society; and International Association for the Study
of Obesity. Circulation 2009;120:1640-5.
have to check his adherence by means of a blood 8. Stone NJ, Robinson J, Lichtenstein AH, et al. 2013 ACC/AHA
test; we can just talk about whether he is taking guideline on the treatment of blood cholesterol to reduce athero-
the pills and wants to continue taking the pills. sclerotic cardiovascular risk in adults: a report of the American
College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force
In these trials, patients received a particular drug on Practice Guidelines. Circulation 2013 November 12 (Epub
at a particular dose, and the doses were not ad- ahead of print).
9. FDA drug safety communication: important safety label science and action. Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes 2014 Febru-
changes to cholesterol-lowering statin drugs. Silver Spring, MD: ary 4 (Epub ahead of print).
Food and Drug Administration, 2012 (http://www.fda.gov/ 13. Cholesterol Treatment Trialists (CTT) Collaborators. The
drugs/drugsafety/ucm293101.htm). effects of lowering LDL cholesterol with statin therapy in people
10. Nakamura H, Arakawa K, Itakura H, et al. Primary preven- at low risk of vascular disease: meta-analysis of individual data
tion of cardiovascular disease with pravastatin in Japan (MEGA from 27 randomised trials. Lancet 2012;380:581-90.
study): a prospective randomised controlled trial. Lancet 2006; 14. Ridker PM, Cook NR. Statins: new American guidelines for
368:1155-63. prevention of cardiovascular disease. Lancet 2013;382:1762-5.
11. Boekholdt SM, Arsenault BJ, Mora S, et al. Association of LDL 15. Hayward RA, Krumholz HM. Three reasons to abandon low-
cholesterol, non-HDL cholesterol, and apolipoprotein B levels density lipoprotein targets: an open letter to the Adult Treatment
with risk of cardiovascular events among patients treated with Panel IV of the National Institutes of Health. Circ Cardiovasc
statins: a meta-analysis. JAMA 2012;307:1302-9. [Errata, JAMA Qual Outcomes 2012;5:2-5.
2012;307:1694, 1915.] DOI: 10.1056/NEJMclde1314766
12. Ting HH, Brito JP, Montori VM. Shared decision making: Copyright 2014 Massachusetts Medical Society.