RecentTrendsforPetroleum,Electricity

&Renewables

WesternStatesCoordinationMeeting
WebEx
April20,2017

GordonSchremp
EnergyAssessmentsDivision
CaliforniaEnergyCommission
gordon.schremp@energy.ca.gov
 CrudeOil

4/20/2017 2
 GlobalDemandGrowthOutlook

Europe
240 300
50 FSU
North 170 140
America
40
390
60 10 160 Asia
60 30
1,210
Middle 970 930
East

230 120 140

Latin
America Africa

Thous.Bbls/Day
2015vs.2014 2,000
2016vs.2015 1,610
2017vs.2016 1,360

Source: International Energy Agency (IEA) Oil Market Report March 15, 2017

2017 outlook 97.96 MMB/D vs. 96.60 MMB/D in 2016 (up 1.41%).

4/20/2017 3
 GlobalDemandForecast Rising
QuarterlyOilDemand World
105

100 99.2
97.9 98.6 98.0
MillionsofBarrelsPerDay

97.1 97.3 96.6

96.7
96.0 95.7 95.5 95.9
95.0
95 94.4
93.8
93.0
91.9
90.6
90 89.1
88.3
86.4 86.1
85.5
85.2
85 83.9

80

Source: IEA Oil Market Report March 15, 2017

75
1Q2015
2Q2015
3Q2015
4Q2015
1Q2016
2Q2016
3Q2016
4Q2016
1Q2017
2Q2017
3Q2017
4Q2017
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
4/20/2017 4
 NADemandForecast Steady
QuarterlyOilDemand NorthAmerica
26.0

25.5 25.4 25.5

25.5

25.0
MillionsofBarrelsPerDay

UnitedStates19.68
24.5 24.4 24.4 24.3
24.2 24.1 24.2
24.0 24.0 24.0
24.0 23.9 23.8 23.9
23.8 23.8 23.7 23.7
23.6
23.5 23.4
23.5 23.3
23.3

23.0 23.0

22.5

22.0
Source: IEA Oil Market Report March 15, 2017

21.5
1Q2015
2Q2015
3Q2015
4Q2015
1Q2016
2Q2016
3Q2016
4Q2016
1Q2017
2Q2017
3Q2017
4Q2017
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
4/20/2017 5
 GlobalCrudeSupplyImbalance
100 2.5
OPEC production cuts
1.96 1.24
holding thru February. 1.72
1.25 2.0
98
1.38
0.40
1.47
1.5
96 1.00
MillionsofBarrelsPerDay

0.98
1.0
94
0.14
0.5
0.09
920.29 0.09
Supply 0.0
0.15
Demand
90
SupplyImbalance 0.5

88 0.80
1.0
1.08 Source: IEA Oil Market Report March 15, 2017

86 1.5
1Q2013

2Q2013

3Q2013

4Q2013

1Q2014

2Q2014

3Q2014

4Q2014

1Q2015

2Q2015

3Q2015

4Q2015

1Q2016

2Q2016

3Q2016

4Q2016
4/20/2017 6
 GlobalCrudeOilProductionChange
7,000

5,918
2015vs.2008
6,000

5,000
U.S. increase about 1.7 times greater than the other
ThousandsofBarrelsPerDay

4,000 top 20 countries combined 5,918 vs. 3,567

thousands of barrels per day.

3,000

Sources:2016BPStatisticalReviewandEnergyCommissionAnalysis
2,000
1,603
1,351
1,178
1,030
1,000 875
628
495 460
310 218 185
0

Algeria

Brazil
Norway

Qatar
SaudiArabia

Mexico
Iran

Venezuela

UnitedArabEmirates

Iraq

Kazakhstan
Libya
RussianFederation

US

Kuwait

UnitedKingdom
Nigeria
Canada

Angola

Indonesia
China

441
1,000 579 518 384 90
595 181
1,388
590
2,000

4/20/2017 7
 MillionsofBarrelsPerDay

10
12
14

0
2
4
6
8

4/20/2017
1961
1967
1973
1979
1985
1991
1997
2003
May04
Nov04
May05
Nov05
May06
Nov06
Source: IEA Oil
Market Reports.

May07
Nov07
May08
Nov08
May09
Nov09
May10
Nov10
May11
Nov11
May12
Nov12
May13
Nov13
May14
Nov14
May15
Nov15
OPEC production cuts enable increase of spare capacity.

May16
Nov16
3.59

8
SpareOPECCapacitySlightlyDown Feb.17
 PercentageofWorldOilDemand

4/20/2017
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%

1989
1995
Jan00
Jul00
Jan01
Jul01
Jan02
Jul02
10.89%

Jan03
Jul03
Jan04
Jul04
Jan05

0.76%
Jul05
Jan06
Jul06
Jan07
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Jul10
Jan11
Jul11
Jan12
Jul12
Jan13
Jul13
Source: IEA Oil Market Reports.

Jan14
Jul14
Jan15
Jul15
Jan16
SpareOPECCapacityDrops Feb.17

Jul16
3.71%

Jan17
9
 DollarsPerBarrel

20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60

4/20/2017
4/18/2016
5/2/2016
5/16/2016
5/30/2016
6/13/2016
6/27/2016
AlaskaNorthSlope

7/11/2016

Prices thru 4/18/17

7/25/2016
WestTexasIntermediate

8/8/2016
8/22/2016
9/5/2016
9/19/2016
10/3/2016
BrentNorthSea

10/17/2016
SanJoaquinValley

10/31/2016
11/14/2016
11/28/2016
12/12/2016
12/26/2016
1/9/2017
1/23/2017
2/6/2017
2/20/2017
3/6/2017
3/20/2017
Source:Oil PriceInformationService

4/3/2017
4/17/2017
CrudeOilPrices WestCoast,Brent&WTI

10
 DailyBrentCrudeOilPrices(2012 4/18/17)
140
Source: Energy Information Administration & OPIS

120
DollarsPerBarrel

100

2012 2013 2014

80
2015 2016 2017

60

40
Y-T-D price has averaged
$54.61, last year $36.34
20

27.9 percenthigher thansametimelastyear.

0
Apr

Oct
Jan

Aug

Sep

Nov
Mar

Jul

Jul
Feb

May

Jun

Dec
4/20/2017 11
 DollarsPerBarrel

0
5
10
15
20
25
30

4/20/2017
Jan11
Apr11
Jul11
Oct11
Jan12
Apr12

Sources: EIA and IEA

Jul12
Oct12
Jan13
Apr13
Jul13
Oct13
Jan14
Apr14
Jul14
Oct14
Jan15
Apr15
Jul15
Oct15
Jan16
Apr16
Jul16
Previous Y-T-D $1.82 - Tuesday $2.48

Oct16
Year-to-date differential average of $2.77
BrentWTIDifferential(2011 4/18/17)

Jan17
12

Apr17
 Cushing,OKCrudeInventory(4/9/04 4/14/17)
80,000 20%
New record level of 69.42 million barrels
reached on 4/7/17. 18%
70,000

16%
PercentofUSTotals
60,000
Cushing,OKInventoryLevel
14%

PercentofU.S.Totals
ThousandsofBarrels

Source: Energy Information Administration

50,000
12%

40,000 10%

8%
30,000

6%
20,000
4%

10,000 Total U.S. crude inventories at 532.34 million barrels. Cushing 2%

share of U.S. rises from 12.75 to 12.89 percent of total.
0 0%
4/9/04

6/9/05
1/9/06
8/9/06
3/9/07

5/9/08

7/9/09
2/9/10
9/9/10
4/9/11

6/9/12
1/9/13
8/9/13
3/9/14

5/9/15

7/9/16
2/9/17
11/9/04

10/9/07

12/9/08

11/9/11

10/9/14

12/9/15
4/20/2017 13
 USGulfCoastCrudeInventory(4/9/04 4/14/17)
300,000 80%
New record level of 280.94 million
PercentofUSTotals
280,000 barrels reached on 3/31/17.
70%
USGulfCoastInventoryLevel
260,000
60%
240,000

PercentofU.S.Totals
ThousandsofBarrels

50%
220,000

200,000 40%
Source: Energy Information Administration

180,000
30%

160,000
20%
140,000

10%
120,000 US Gulf Coast share of U.S. drops from 51.81 to 51.49 percent
of total. Inventory rises to 274.11 million barrels.
100,000 0%
11/9/04

10/9/07

12/9/08

11/9/11

10/9/14

12/9/15
4/9/04

6/9/05
1/9/06
8/9/06
3/9/07

5/9/08

7/9/09
2/9/10
9/9/10
4/9/11

6/9/12
1/9/13
8/9/13
3/9/14

5/9/15

7/9/16
2/9/17
4/20/2017 14
 CrudeOil Inputs,Imports&Inventory

Source: IIR Energy

532.3 million barrels as of April 14, 2017

25.0 million barrels more crude oil
inventory than same time last year
Record level of 545.186 million barrels
during October 1929

Much higher refinery runs & elevated inventories

4/20/2017 15
 12,000
U.S.CrudeOilProduction Jan.81Jan.17
Chart peakof9.627 millionbarrelsperday Apr.2015
Alltimepeakof10.044 millionbarrelsperday Nov.1970 8.835 millionbarrelsperday

10,000

California production stays below Alaska.

Thousands ofBarrels PerDay

8,000

3.195 millionbarrelsperday

6,000
USCrudeOilProduction Alaska

NorthDakota Texas

California+OCS RestofUS

4,000
0.974 millionbarrelsperday

2,000

Source:Energy Information Administration(EIA)

0
Jan1981

Jan1992

Jan2003

Jan2014
Oct1983
Sep1984

Oct1994
Sep1995

Oct2005
Sep2006

Oct2016
Nov1982

Nov1993

Nov2004

Nov2015
Aug1985

May1988

Aug1996

May1999

Aug2007

May2010
Dec1981

Jun1987

Dec1992

Jun1998

Dec2003

Jun2009

Dec2014
Jul1986

Jul1997

Jul2008
Apr1989
Mar1990
Feb1991

Apr2000
Mar2001
Feb2002

Apr2011
Mar2012
Feb2013
4/20/2017 16
 ChangeinCrudeOilProduction
January2010vs.January2017
2,500
U.S.crudeoilproductionhaschangedfrom5.390 millionbarrelsperdayin
January2010to8.835 millionbarrelsperdayduringJanuary2017
2,096
2,000
U.S.crudeoilproductionhasdecreased 0.792 millionbarrelsperdayfrom
ThousandsofBarrelsPerDay

thepeakinApril2015

1,500

1,000
845
739

500

Source:Energy InformationAdministration(EIA)

0
Texas NorthDakota RestofU.S. California Alaska
111 124

500

4/20/2017 17
 2,500,000
U.S.TightOilProduction Jan.07Mar.17
Ghawar(SaudiArabia)Peak5.0MMBPDin2005,now4.5MMBPD
Samotlor(Russia)Peak3.0MMBPDin1980,now0.84MMBPD
2,214,589
Burgan(Kuwait)Peak2.4MMBPDin1972,now1.7MMBPD
Cantarell(Mexico)Peak2.1MMBPDin2003,now0.41MMBPD
2,000,000 Rumaila(Iraq)Peak1.6MMBPDin1980,now1.3MMBPD
Safaniya(SaudiArabia)Peak1.5MMBPDin1990s,now1.2MMBPD
Kirkuk(Iraq)Peak1.2MMBPDin1980,now0.23MMBPD
Daqing(China)Peak1.1MMBPDin1997,now0.75MMBPD
1,151,242
BarrelsPerDay

1,500,000

3 U.S. fields - Combined 4.396 MM BPD 1,030,570

1,000,000

Bakken EagleFord
500,000 Permian
Source:EIADrillingProductivityReport

0
Jan07

Jan08

Jan09

Jan10

Jan11

Jan12

Jan13

Jan14

Jan15

Jan16

Jan17
Sep07

Sep08

Sep09

Sep10

Sep11

Sep12

Sep13

Sep14

Sep15

Sep16
May07

May08

May09

May10

May11

May12

May13

May14

May15

May16
4/20/2017 18
 OilRigDeploymentRebounding
1,800

Number of rigs deployed specifically for U.S. oil drilling 57.5 1,601
1,600
percent lower than the peak level on October 10, 2014
Y-T-D up 30.1 percent
1,400
367 additional rigs have been deployed since 5/27/16 low
1,200 point in response to higher crude oil prices increase of
116.1 percent
1,000
683
Source: Baker Hughes data through April 13, 2017.
800

600

400

200
Lowof316
0
7/17/1987
7/17/1988
7/17/1989
7/17/1990
7/17/1991
7/17/1992
7/17/1993
7/17/1994
7/17/1995
7/17/1996
7/17/1997
7/17/1998
7/17/1999
7/17/2000
7/17/2001
7/17/2002
7/17/2003
7/17/2004
7/17/2005
7/17/2006
7/17/2007
7/17/2008
7/17/2009
7/17/2010
7/17/2011
7/17/2012
7/17/2013
7/17/2014
7/17/2015
7/17/2016
4/20/2017 19
 5,000
CrudeOilBasins DUCBacklog
Permian EagleFord Source: Energy Information Administration
4,500
Bakken Niobrara
DrilledButUncompletedWells(DUCs)

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000 Total rises from 4,476 to a record 4,581 in March 2017.

1,500

1,000

500
Increasing backlog awaiting hydraulic fracturing.

Aug14

Aug15

Aug16
Oct14

Oct15

Oct16
Jun14

Jun15

Jun16
Dec13

Feb14

Dec14

Feb15

Dec15

Feb16

Dec16

Feb17
Apr14

Apr15

Apr16
4/20/2017 20
 NaturalGas&LNG

4/20/2017 21
 U.S.NGStorageWeeklyInventory
(CurrentYearthroughApril7 vs.5YearHigh&Lows)
4,500
U.S. Working Natural Gas Design Storage Capacity: 4,658 Billion Cubic Feet; Sources: EIA

4,000
Billions of Cubic Feet

2017 Low 2012-2016 High 2012-2016

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

-
Jan

Feb

Jun

Sep
Jul

Nov

Dec
Mar

Apr

May

Oct
4/20/2017 22
 U.S.NGStorageWeeklyInventory
(CurrentYearthroughApril7 vs.PreviousYear)
4,500
Source: EIA weekly working gas in underground inventory.
4,000
2016 2017
3,500
Billions of Cubic Feet

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

-
Jan

Feb

Jun

Sep
Jul

Aug

Nov

Dec
Apr

May

Oct
Mar

4/20/2017 23
 HenryHubNaturalGas DailySpotPrices
9
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) through April 10, 2017.

7
Dollars Per Million Btus

2012 2013
6 2014 2015
2016 2017
5

1
Current price 65.8 percent higher than same time last year.
0
Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep

Nov

Dec
Apr

Jul
May

Oct
Mar

4/20/2017 24
 NGRigDeploymentAlsoRebounding
1,800

Number of rigs deployed specifically for 1,606

1,600 U.S. NG drilling 89.9 percent lower than
the peak level on September 12, 2008
1,400 Y-T-D up 22.7 percent

1,200 81 additional rigs have been

deployed since 8/26/16 low
1,000
point in response to higher
NG prices increase of
100.0 percent
800

600
162
400

200
Source: Baker Hughes data through April 13, 2017.
Lowof81
0
7/17/1987
7/17/1988
7/17/1989
7/17/1990
7/17/1991
7/17/1992
7/17/1993
7/17/1994
7/17/1995
7/17/1996
7/17/1997
7/17/1998
7/17/1999
7/17/2000
7/17/2001
7/17/2002
7/17/2003
7/17/2004
7/17/2005
7/17/2006
7/17/2007
7/17/2008
7/17/2009
7/17/2010
7/17/2011
7/17/2012
7/17/2013
7/17/2014
7/17/2015
7/17/2016
4/20/2017 25
 1,400
NaturalGasBasins DUCBacklog
Marcellus Utica Haynesville Source: Energy Information Administration
DrilledButUncompletedWells(DUCs)

1,200

1,000

800

Count rises from 925 to 931 in March 2017.

600
Decreasing backlog awaiting hydraulic fracturing.
400

200

Aug14

Aug15

Aug16
Oct14

Oct15

Oct16
Jun14

Jun15

Jun16
Dec13

Feb14

Dec14

Feb15

Dec15

Feb16

Dec16

Feb17
Apr14

Apr15

Apr16
4/20/2017 26
 U.S.NGSupply Jan.2017vs.LastYear
100

7.4Percent
80
BillionsofCubicFeetPerDay

60
PipelineImports
38.7Percent

DryGasProduction
40
NetPipelineImports 3.6Percent

NetLNGImports
20
NetWithdrawals
LNG Imports
419.3 Percent
0
2016 2017
Sources:Energy InformationAdministration&EnergyCommissionanalysis.
January supply averaged 71.50 Bcf/day 7.1 percent lower than last year.
20
Y-T-D supply averaged 71.50 Bcf/day 7.1 percent lower than last year.

4/20/2017 27
 U.S.NGDemand Jan.2017vs.LastYear
100
93.07Bcf
86.51Bcf
90
Sources:Energy Information
80 Administration&EnergyCommission
analysis. 17.1Percent
BillionsofCubicFeetPerDay

70

60
+1.2Percent
50

40
Residential 5.3 Percent
30
Commercial
20
Industrial 6.0 Percent

10
ElectricGeneration
0
2016 2017

January demand averaged 86.51 Bcf/day 7.0 percent lower than last year.
Y-T-D demand averaged 86.51 Bcf/day 7.0 percent lower than last year.
4/20/2017 28
 DailyU.S.NGDemand(AllSectors)

NG demand tracking low end of historical range.

Source: FERC slide derived from Bentek Energy data.

4/20/2017 29
 MonthlyU.S.NGDeliveries(Bcf)
1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

Industrial ElectricPower
200
2ndOrderRegression(Industrial) 2ndOrderRegression(Electrical)
Source: U.S. EIA March 2017 Natural Gas Monthly Data through January 2017.
0
Jan2001

Jan2008

Jan2015
Jul2004

Jul2011
Oct2002

Oct2009

Oct2016
Dec2003

Feb2005

Apr2006

Dec2010

Feb2012

Apr2013
Mar2002

Nov2006

Mar2009

Nov2013

Mar2016
Aug2001

Sep2005

Jun2007

Aug2008

Sep2012

Jun2014

Aug2015
May2003

May2010

4/20/2017 30
 U.S.NGConsumption PowerGeneration
Source: FERC slide derived from Bentek Energy data.

4/20/2017 31
 DailyWesternNGDemand PowerGen.

Source: FERC slide derived from Bentek Energy data.

4/20/2017 32
 ThousandsofMegawatthoursPerDay

1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000

4/20/2017
Jan01
Aug01
Mar02

Coal
Oct02
May03
Dec03
Jul04
Feb05
Sep05
NaturalGas
Apr06
Nov06
Jun07
Jan08
Aug08
Mar09
Oct09

Source:EIAElectricityDataBrowser DatathroughJanuary 2017

May10
Dec10
Jul11
Feb12
Coal use continues to outpace NG.

Sep12
Apr13
Nov13
Jun14
Jan15
Aug15
Mar16
Oct16
U.S.NetGeneration Coalvs.NaturalGas

33
 U.S.NetGeneration Coalvs.NaturalGas
2,500,000
Coal NaturalGas
*DatathroughJanuary 2017
Source:EIAElectricityDataBrowser
2,000,000
ThousandsofMegawatthours

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

*2017
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016
4/20/2017 34
 DollarsPerMMBtus

10
15
20
25

0
5

4/20/2017
11/1/2012
1/1/2013
3/1/2013
5/1/2013
7/1/2013
9/1/2013
11/1/2013
1/1/2014
3/1/2014
5/1/2014
7/1/2014
9/1/2014
11/1/2014
1/1/2015
3/1/2015
5/1/2015
Brazil
Japan

7/1/2015
9/1/2015
UnitedKingdom

11/1/2015
1/1/2016
3/1/2016
5/1/2016
Spain
China

7/1/2016
9/1/2016
Everett,Maine

11/1/2016
LNGLandedPrices thruApril2017

1/1/2017
3/1/2017
35
 Electricity

4/20/2017 36
 U.S.MonthlyElectricityNetGeneration
byFuelType ThruJanuary2017

Natural gas back below coal.

Source: EIA Electricity Data Browser.

4/20/2017 37
 U.S.RegionalElectricNetGeneration
byFuelType January2017

Source: EIA Electricity Monthly Update March 2017.

4/20/2017 38
 120%
WesternStatesElectricNetGeneration
byFuelType 2017YTD
100%

80% Other
Wood&WoodDerivedFuels
Wind
OtherBiomass
60%
SolarThermal&Photovoltaic
Petroleum
Nuclear
40% NaturalGas
Hydro&PumpedStorage
Geothermal

20% Coal

0% Source: EIA Electricity

Monthly Updates Data
California

Nevada
Arizona

Washington
Oregon

Utah
NewMexico
Hawaii

thru January.

20%
4/20/2017 39
 March 21, 2017

8.2 percent of U.S. under

drought.
15.4 percent same time
last year.

4/20/2017 40
 March 21, 2017

4/20/2017 41
4/20/2017 42
 CaliforniaMonthlyNetGeneration
ConventionalHydroelectricSources
4,000
California20122016HighRange

3,500 California20122016LowRange

California2017
3,000
ThousandsofMegawatthours

2,500
Not a typo.
2,000

1,500

1,000

Source: EIA Electricity Data Browser.

500

California net generation thru January 248.4 percent higher than 2016.
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

4/20/2017 43
 WAORMonthlyNetGeneration
12,000
ConventionalHydroelectricSources
Washington20122016HighRange
Source: EIA Electricity Data Browser. Washington20122016LowRange
Washington2017
10,000 Oregon20122016HighRange
Oregon20122016LowRange
ThousandsofMegawatthours

Oregon2017

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

Oregon net generation thru January 12.9 percent higher than 2016.
Washington net generation thru January 21.5 percent higher than 2016.
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

4/20/2017 44
 CaliforniaReservoirStatus4/19/17
CAnetgenerationfromhydroelectric
sources,percentoftotalU.S.
2011 13.3%
2012 9.7%
2013 8.9%
2014 6.4%
2015 5.5%
2016 10.9%
Jan.2017 13.7%

Sources: California Department of Water

Resources, Data Exchange Center & EIA.

4/20/2017 45
 SnowpackOutlook WesternStates
Sierras&CascadesHigherYOY

4/20/2017 46
 SnowpackOutlook HighWaterContent

4/20/2017 47
 Western Region Unemployment Rates
15%
Percent of Labor Force Unemployed
14%

13%
Unemployment rates as of 2/1/2017
12%

11%

10%

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%
Source: U.S.Bureau ofLabor
3%
Statistics
2%
Aug-08
Nov-08

Aug-09
Nov-09

Aug-10
Nov-10

Aug-11
Nov-11

Aug-12
Nov-12

Aug-13
Nov-13

Aug-14
Nov-14

Aug-15
Nov-15

Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-09

Feb-10

Feb-11

Feb-12

Feb-13

Feb-14

Feb-15

Feb-16

Feb-17
May-09

May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16
U.S.(4.7) Arizona(5.1) California(5) NewMexico(6.8)
Nevada(4.9) Oregon(4) Utah(3.1) Washington(4.9)

4/20/2017 48
 Gasoline

4/20/2017 49
 WesternStatesRetailGasolinePrices
440

390
Prices through 4/18/17 UnitedStates Arizona
California Illinois
Nevada NewMexico
340 Oregon Utah
CentsPerGallon

Washington

290

240

190

Source:AAAretailgasoline regulargradeprices.
140
6/1/2015

7/1/2015

8/1/2015

9/1/2015

1/1/2016

2/1/2016

3/1/2016

4/1/2016

5/1/2016

6/1/2016

7/1/2016

8/1/2016

9/1/2016

1/1/2017

2/1/2017

3/1/2017

4/1/2017
10/1/2015

11/1/2015

12/1/2015

10/1/2016

11/1/2016

12/1/2016
4/20/2017 50
 Gasoline InternationalComparison

United States ranks 31st in the world.

4/20/2017 51
 18
CaliforniaGasoline LCFS&FUTCValues
Current values FUTC 11.3 cpg, LCFS 4.0 cpg
16
Values through 4/18/17
14
Source: Oil Price Information Service.
12
CentsPerGallon

10

8
FuelsUnderTheCapGasolineAssessment
LowCarbonFuelsStandardGasolineAssessment
6

0
1/2/2015
2/2/2015
3/2/2015
4/2/2015
5/2/2015
6/2/2015
7/2/2015
8/2/2015
9/2/2015

1/2/2016
2/2/2016
3/2/2016
4/2/2016
5/2/2016
6/2/2016
7/2/2016
8/2/2016
9/2/2016

1/2/2017
2/2/2017
3/2/2017
4/2/2017
10/2/2015
11/2/2015
12/2/2015

10/2/2016
11/2/2016
12/2/2016
4/20/2017 52
 U.S.Gasoline RisingProduction&LowerDemand

4/20/2017 53
 U.S.FinishedGasolineDemand
(1981 January2017)
10,000

9,000
ThousandsofBarrelsPerDay

8,000

7,000

6,000
2016 finished gasoline demand of 9.327 million
barrels per day was a U.S. record.
5,000

Source: Energy Information Administration.

4,000
May82

May86

May90

May94

May98

May02

May06

May10

May14
Jan81

Jan85

Jan89

Jan93

Jan97

Jan01

Jan05

Jan09

Jan13

Jan17
Sep83

Sep87

Sep91

Sep95

Sep99

Sep03

Sep07

Sep11

Sep15
4/20/2017 54
 U.S.FinishedGasolineDemand2017vs.2016
9,800

9,600
ThousandsofBarrelsPerDay

9,400

9,200

9,000

8,800
8,670
2017 Y-T-D gasoline demand down 1.9 percent
8,600
compared to same period in 2016.
8,503
8,400

8,200
Source: Energy Information Administration.
2016 2017
8,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

4/20/2017 55
 CaliforniaGasolineOutput AboveNormal

Data through April 14, 2017

Source: California Energy Commission.

4/20/2017 56
 GasolineProductionAboveNormal North

Data through April 14, 2017

Source: California Energy Commission.

4/20/2017 57
 GasolineProductionAboveNormal South

Data through April 14, 2017

Source: California Energy Commission.

4/20/2017 58
 RefineryOperations LookAhead
Otherrefineryissues:
Crudeoilmaintenanceactivityaverageforthistimeofyear
Plannedgasolinerelatedmaintenanceduring2Q2017muchlighter
thannormal

Sources: Industrial Information Resources (IIR) Refinery Off-line Report & DOE Review.

4/20/2017 59
 CAGasoline InventoriesAboveNormal

Data through April 14, 2017

Source: California Energy Commission.

4/20/2017 60
 200
WestCoastForeignGasolineImports
Source:CaliforniaEnergyCommissionanalysisofweekly importdatafromtheEnergyInformationAdministration.

2017TotalGasolineImports
180
YTD2017averaged24.3TBD
2016TotalGasolineImports
31.1TBDsameperiod2016
160 24.2TBDsameperiod2015 2015TotalGasolineImports
10.4TBDsameperiod2014 2014TotalGasolineImports
ThousandsofBarrelsPerDay

140
Data through
April 14, 2017
120

100

80

60

40

20

10/16
10/23
10/30
11/13
11/20
11/27
12/11
12/18
12/25
1/2
1/9

2/6

3/6

4/3

5/1
5/8

6/5

8/7

9/4
1/16
1/23
1/30
2/13
2/20
2/27
3/13
3/20
3/27
4/10
4/17
4/24

5/15
5/22
5/29
6/12
6/19
6/26
7/03
7/10
7/17
7/24
7/31
8/14
8/21
8/28
9/11
9/18
9/25
10/2
10/9

11/6

12/4
4/20/2017 61
 70
CaliforniaForeignGasolineExports
2014 2015 2017 Y-T-D exports have averaged 38.3 TBD vs.
15.7 TBD during 2016.
2016 2017
60
99.3 percent of
54.1 shipments originated
ThousandsofBarrelsPerDay

from Northern
50 California during 2017.

40

30

20.8
20

10

0
June

August

November
May
January

December
July

September
March
February

October
April

Source:CaliforniaEnergyCommissionanalysisoftheInternationalTradeCommission'sInteractiveTariffandTradeDataWeb.

4/20/2017 62
 70
PacificNorthwestForeignGasolineExports
Source:CaliforniaEnergyCommissionanalysisoftheInternationalTradeCommission'sInteractiveTariffandTradeDataWeb.

2014 2015 2017 Y-T-D exports have averaged

60
2016 2017 43.8 TBD vs. 26.9 TBD during 2016.
ThousandsofBarrelsPerDay

50.1
50

40 36.9

30

20

10

0
June

August

November
May
January

December
July

September
March
February

April

October
4/20/2017 63
 CAGasolineMarket TighterSupply
160
Sources:EIA NYMEXRBOBContract 1Prices
OPIS CARBOBSpotPipelinePrices
CARBOBSpotPriceLessNYMEXMonthAheadPrice(cpg)

140
2012averagewas11.6cpgpremiumtoNYMEX
2013averagewas5.9cpg
120 2014averagewas3.5cpg
2015averagewas28.0cpg
2016averagewas4.3cpg
100 2017averagetodate+8.7cpg Tuesday+12.2cpg

LosAngeles
80
SanFrancisco TightSupplies

60

40

20

0
Ample
Supplies
20
1/3/12
3/3/12
5/3/12
7/3/12
9/3/12
11/3/12
1/3/13
3/3/13
5/3/13
7/3/13
9/3/13
11/3/13
1/3/14
3/3/14
5/3/14
7/3/14
9/3/14
11/3/14
1/3/15
3/3/15
5/3/15
7/3/15
9/3/15
11/3/15
1/3/16
3/3/16
5/3/16
7/3/16
9/3/16
11/3/16
1/3/17
3/3/17
40

60
4/20/2017 64
 Calif.Mogas Demand2016vs.SeasonalRange
45

44

43
MillionsofGallonsperDay

42

41

40

39 2016 Y-T-D demand thru December up 2.26

percent versus previous period.
38 20112015HighRange
Most recent 3 months demand up 1.68 20112015LowRange
percent versus previous period.
37 2016
Source: Board of Equalization & CEC Analysis
36
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

4/20/2017 65
 Calif.GasolineDemand19452016
18,000,000
Sincethepeakin2004,gasolineconsumptiondeclinedsevenofthenexteightyears.
Gasoline consumptiondropped8.94percentbetween2004and2012.
16,000,000
2016 consumption15.492billiongallons.
Highestlevelsince2007.
14,000,000
ThousandsofGallons

12,000,000
Source:CaliforniaEnergyCommission

10,000,000

8,000,000

6,000,000

4,000,000

2,000,000
2015 demand totaled 15,107,812,480 gallons.
0
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
4/20/2017 66
 CaliforniaGasolineConsumption
1945 2015
900
814 GasolineSource:CaliforniaEnergyCommission
800 AnalysisofFederalHighwayAdministrationand
GallonsofGasolinePerPersonPerYear

CA BoardofEqualizationData

700
591.7

600 PerCapita
PerDriver
525
PopulationSource: CaliforniaDepartment ofFinance
500 DemographicResearchUnit,May2016

384.9
400

300

Between 1973 and2015 Between 1978 and2015

200 PerCapitaConsumption Has
PerDriver Consumption Has
Decreased 27.29 Percent Decreased 26.64 Percent
100

0
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
4/20/2017 67
 DieselFuel

4/20/2017 68
 WesternStatesRetailDieselFuelPrices
340
UnitedStates Arizona
California Illinois
320
Nevada NewMexico
Oregon Utah
300 Washington

280
CentsPerGallon

260

240

220

200

180
Prices through 4/18/17
Source:AAAretaildiesel fuel prices.
160
6/1/2015

7/1/2015

8/1/2015

9/1/2015

1/1/2016

2/1/2016

3/1/2016

4/1/2016

5/1/2016

6/1/2016

7/1/2016

8/1/2016

9/1/2016

1/1/2017

2/1/2017

3/1/2017

4/1/2017
10/1/2015

11/1/2015

12/1/2015

10/1/2016

11/1/2016

12/1/2016
4/20/2017 69
 DieselFuel InternationalComparison

United States ranks 37th in the world.

4/20/2017 70
 20
CaliforniaDieselFuel LCFS&FUTCValues
18
Current values FUTC 13.7 cpg, LCFS 3.7 cpg

Values through 4/18/17

16
Source: Oil Price Information Service.
14
CentsPerGallon

12

10

FuelsUnderTheCapDieselFuelAssessment
6
LowCarbonFuelsStandardDieselFuelAssessment
4

0
1/2/2015
2/2/2015
3/2/2015
4/2/2015
5/2/2015
6/2/2015
7/2/2015
8/2/2015
9/2/2015

1/2/2016
2/2/2016
3/2/2016
4/2/2016
5/2/2016
6/2/2016
7/2/2016
8/2/2016
9/2/2016

1/2/2017
2/2/2017
3/2/2017
4/2/2017
10/2/2015
11/2/2015
12/2/2015

10/2/2016
11/2/2016
12/2/2016
4/20/2017 71
 DollarsPerGallon

$1.00
$1.25
$1.50
$1.75
$2.00
$2.25
$2.50

4/20/2017
4/18/16
4/27/16
5/6/16
5/17/16
5/26/16
6/6/16
6/15/16
6/24/16
Portland

7/5/16
LasVegas

LosAngeles

7/15/16
7/26/16
8/4/16
8/15/16
8/24/16
Reno

9/5/16
Phoenix

9/14/16
9/23/16
10/4/16
10/13/16
10/24/16
11/2/16
11/11/16
11/22/16
12/1/16
4/18/16 4/18/17

12/12/16
12/21/16
12/30/16
1/10/17
InterstateDieselRackPrices

1/19/17
1/30/17
2/8/17
2/17/17
Source: Oil Price Information Service

2/28/17
3/9/17
3/20/17
3/29/17
72

4/7/17
4/18/17
 ULSD U.S.Supply/DemandBalance
6,000
ULSD production drops from 4.776 to 4.446 million barrels per day
during January 2017
5,000
Thousands of Barrels per Day

4,000

3,000

2,000 Inventory Build or Draw

Net Imports

1,000 Production

Apparent Demand Source: Energy Information Administration

-1,000
Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17
Sep-09

Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16
May-09

May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16
-2,000

4/20/2017 73
 ULSD U.S.Demand2017vs.2016
4,000
2017YTD demand0.3percentlower
thansametimelastyear.
3,900
January2017 demand0.3percentlower
thansametimelastyear.
ThousandsofBarrelsPerDay

3,800

3,700

2016
3,600
2017

3,500
3,546

3,400

3,300
Source: Energy Information Administration

3,200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

4/20/2017 74
 ULSD Drilling,Rail&WeatherRelated
PADD 4 Y-T-D demand
up 5.8 percent.

PADD 5 Y-T-D demand PADD 1 Y-T-D demand

down 7.8 percent. up 7.3 percent.

1,350 900
2017YTDPADD2 demand
2.3percentlowerthansame
1,300 850
timelastyear.
ThousandsofBarrelsPerDay

ThousandsofBarrelsPerDay
1,250 800
730.7
1,200 750

1,121.0
1,150 700
694.4
1,100 650
1,095.7
1,050 600

Source: Energy Information Administration 2017YTDPADD3 demand

1,000 550 5.0percentlowerthan
2016 2017 sametimelastyear. 2016 2017
950 500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

4/20/2017 75
 WeeklyTrafficofMajorU.S.Railroads
350,000
Source: Association of American Railroads Weekly Rail Traffic Summary
330,000
Mostrecent4weeksaverageup9.30percentvs.sameperiodin2016
WeeklyRailActivityOriginatinginU.S.

310,000

290,000

270,000

250,000

230,000

210,000
Up5.79percentvs.
2016 Holidayimpacts
190,000
Carloads
170,000 2017YTDrailtrafficup5.25percentversus2016
2016railtrafficdown3.73percentversus2015 ContainersandTrailers
150,000
3/15/2014
4/26/2014

7/19/2014
8/30/2014

2/14/2015
3/28/2015

6/20/2015

9/12/2015

12/5/2015
1/16/2016
2/27/2016

5/21/2016

8/13/2016
9/24/2016
11/5/2016

1/28/2017
3/11/2017
10/11/2014
11/22/2014

10/24/2015

12/17/2016
2/1/2014

6/7/2014

1/3/2015

5/9/2015

8/1/2015

4/9/2016

7/2/2016
2001
2007
2013

4/20/2017 76
 CarloadActivityofMajorU.S.Railroads

Source: Association of American Railroads Weekly Rail Traffic Summary 4/15/17

4/20/2017 77
 CarloadActivity CoalShipments

2017 Y-T-D up 17.8 percent or 12,608 carloads per week versus 2016 Y-T-D.

4/20/2017 78
 U.S.CrudebyRailTransportation
1,200 14%
4.05percentofU.S.production asofJanuary
2017.ExcludesCanadian import movements.
12%
1,000
Crudebyrail volumesincludeoil
fromU.S.productionandCanadian
Thousands ofBarrels PerDay

railimports. 10%

PercentageofU.S.Production
800

8%

600
NationalCBRMovements
6%
PercentageofU.S.Production
400
4%
Source:EnergyInformation
Administration
200
2%

0 0%
Jan2010

Jan2011

Jan2012

Jan2013

Jan2014

Jan2015

Jan2016

Jan2017
Oct2010

Oct2011

Oct2012

Oct2013

Oct2014

Oct2015

Oct2016
Jul2010

Jul2011

Jul2012

Jul2013

Jul2014

Jul2015

Jul2016
Apr2010

Apr2011

Apr2012

Apr2013

Apr2014

Apr2015

Apr2016
4/20/2017 79
 CaliforniaCrudeOilImports
1,400,000
ViaRailTankCars
Source:California EnergyCommission CBR numbers for 2016 down
1,200,000 32.6 percent compared to
2015 (1,188,510 barrels versus
1,762,373 barrels).
1,000,000
BarrelsPerMonth

2016 Y-T-D CBR deliveries Canada

averaging 3.3 TBD less than Colorado
800,000
0.2 percent of total supply.
NewMexico
NorthDakota
600,000
Utah
Wyoming
400,000
OtherLower48States

200,000

0
July13

July14

July15

July16
January13

March13

May13

September13

November13

January14

March14

May14

September14

November14

January15

March15

May15

September15

November15

January16

March16

May16

September16

November16
4/20/2017 80
 CADieselProduction Normal

Data through April 14, 2017

Source: California Energy Commission.

4/20/2017 81
 CADieselInventory Normal

Data through April 14, 2017

Source: California Energy Commission.

4/20/2017 82
 DieselMarket TighterSupply PNW
70
2013CAaveragewas2.4cpg PNWwas2.4cpg
LosAngeles
2014CAaveragewas1.4cpg PNWwas4.0cpg
DieselSpotPriceLessNYMEXMonthAheadPrice(cpg)

2015CAaveragewas0.9cpg PNWwas7.0cpg SanFrancisco

2016CAaveragewas2.3cpg PNWwas6.1cpg
2017CA averagetodate+1.7cpg,Tuesday+3.5cpg PacificNorthwest
50 2017PNW averagetodate+5.1 cpg,Tuesday+11.5cpg

TightSupplies

30

10

10
Ample
Supplies
11/3/12

11/3/13

11/3/14

11/3/15

11/3/16
1/3/12
3/3/12
5/3/12
7/3/12
9/3/12

1/3/13
3/3/13
5/3/13
7/3/13
9/3/13

1/3/14
3/3/14
5/3/14
7/3/14
9/3/14

1/3/15
3/3/15
5/3/15
7/3/15
9/3/15

1/3/16
3/3/16
5/3/16
7/3/16
9/3/16

1/3/17
3/3/17
30

Sources:EIA NYMEX HeatingOil Contract 1Prices

OPIS DieselSpotPipelinePrices

50
4/20/2017 83
 Calif.DieselDemand2016vs.SeasonalRange
12.0

2016 demand through up 1.01 percent

11.5
versus 2015.

11.0
MillionsofGallonsperDay

10.5

10.0

9.5

9.0

Most recent 3 months of demand up 0.74

8.5
percent versus previous period.

8.0

20112015HighRange
7.5
20112015LowRange
Sources: Board of Equalization & CEC Analysis 2016
7.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

4/20/2017 84
 1,400
U.S.TransportationFuelExports
YTDExportsThroughJanuary,versusPreviousYear
Sources:EIAandEnergyCommissionAnalysis.

ULSDaveraging947.0 TBD,up 25.5 percent

1,200 FinishedGasolineaveraging810.3 TBD,up40.2percent
JetFuelaveraging174.4 TBD,down14.9percent
GasolineBlendingComponentsaveraging109.3 TBD,down 38.5 percent
ThousandsofBarrelsPerDay

1,000 FinishedGasoline
GasolineBlendingComponents
CommercialJetFuel
800 UltraLowSulfurDieselFuel

600

400

200

0
Jan2009

Jul2009

Jan2010

Jul2010

Jan2011

Jul2011

Jan2012

Jul2012

Jan2013

Jul2013

Jan2014

Jul2014

Jan2015

Jul2015

Jan2016

Jul2016

Jan2017
Apr2009

Apr2010

Apr2011

Apr2012

Apr2013

Apr2014

Apr2015

Apr2016
Oct2009

Oct2010

Oct2011

Oct2012

Oct2013

Oct2014

Oct2015

Oct2016
4/20/2017 85
 RenewableFuels

4/20/2017 86
 120,000
CornAcresPlanted&Harvested(1866 *2017)
AcresPlantedAllPurposes
110,000
AcresHarvestedGrainOnly

100,000
ThousandsofAcres

90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000
*USDA estimate as of 4/11/17.
50,000

90.0 million acres forecast to be planted in 2017,

40,000 down 4.26 percent versus 2016.

30,000
1866
1871
1876
1881
1886
1891
1896
1901
1906
1911
1916
1921
1926
1931
1936
1941
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
4/20/2017 87
 U.S.AnnualCornYield(1866 *2016)
200
Corn yield estimate for 2016 at a record 174.6 bushels
180 per acre. Up 3.68 percent compared to 2015.
160

140
BushelsPerAcre

120

100

80

60
*USDA estimate as of 4/11/17.
40

20
Source:USDA NationalAgriculturalStatisticsService
0

*2016
1866
1871
1876
1881
1886
1891
1896
1901
1906
1911
1916
1921
1926
1931
1936
1941
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
4/20/2017 88
 U.S.AnnualCornProduction(1866 *2016)
16,000

14,000 2016 production estimated a record 15.148 billion

bushels, 11.37 percent higher than 2015.

12,000
MillionsofBushels

10,000

8,000

6,000

*USDA estimate as of 4/11/17.

4,000

2,000
Source:USDA NationalAgriculturalStatisticsService
0

*2016
1866
1871
1876
1881
1886
1891
1896
1901
1906
1911
1916
1921
1926
1931
1936
1941
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
4/20/2017 89
 6,000
U.S.CornEndingStocks 90%

EndingStocks 80%
5,000
PercentofForecastDomesticUse 70%

4,000 Stocks prior to start of 2017 harvest 60%

MillionsofBushels

forecast to be 33.6 percent higher than the

levels of 2016. Highest level in 30 years.
50%
3,000
*2017 value is based on estimate by 40%
USDA as of April 14, 2017.

2,000 30%

20%
1,000
10%

0 0%
197576

197778

197980

198182

198384

198586

198788

198990

199192

199394

199596

199798

199900

200102

200304

200506

200708

200910

201112

201314

201516
4/20/2017 90
 9.00
U.S.MonthlyCornPrices
26.8%cornpricerisebetweenMay
andJulyof2012due todrought
8.00
2013 price averaged $5.79
7.00 2014 price averaged $4.15
2015 price averaged $3.77
2016 price averaged $3.58
6.00 2017 Y-T-D price average $3.65
DollarsPerBushel

Record lowendofseason
March 2017 price averaged $3.63
inventoryoutlook
5.00
40.2%cornpricerisebetweenMayand
Julyof2008 previousworstdrought
4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00
Source: Moore Research Center, Chicago Board of Trade Daily Month-Ahead Futures Prices
0.00
Sep75

Sep79

Sep83

Sep87

Sep91

Sep95

Sep99

Sep03

Sep07

Sep11

Sep15
Jan77
May78

Jan81
May82

Jan85
May86

Jan89
May90

Jan93
May94

Jan97
May98

Jan01
May02

Jan05
May06

Jan09
May10

Jan13
May14

Jan17
4/20/2017 91
 U.S.CornDisposition&Production
16,000
Other Uses Sugars & Starch
Feed & Residual Use Fuel Ethanol
14,000
Exports Production

12,000

10,000
Millions of Bushels

8,000

6,000
2016 estimate that 44.0 percent of domestic
4,000 corn use was for ethanol production.

2,000
*2016 estimate based on estimate by USDA as of April 14, 2017.
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
*2016
4/20/2017 92
 70%
U.S.CornEndUse PercentofSupply
2016estimate forcornusedtomakefuelethanol
at37.4percentoftotaluseordisappearance.
60%

50%
PercentofTotalUse

FuelEthanol BeverageAlcohol
Cereal HighFructoseCornSyrup
40% Sugars,Starch&Seed Exports
Feed&Residual

30%

20%

*2016 based on estimate by USDA as of

April 14, 2017.
10%

0%

*2016
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
4/20/2017 93
 CornFuturesPriceSlidesToward$3.60

4/20/2017 94
 EthanolFuturesPriceRallyEases

4/20/2017 95
 EthanolCrushSpread MarginsImproving
1000
LineFormula:[(OPIS Ethanol*2.74) CBOTCorn]CentsperBushel
OPISEthanol=AverageofDailyLosAngelesEthanolRailcarPrices
CBOTCorn=AverageoftheDailyMonthAheadValues
CrushSpreads(CentsPerGallon&Bushel)

CBOT=ChicagoBoardofTrade

800
Formula:[OPIS Ethanol (CBOTCorn/2.74)]CentsperGallon
OPISEthanol=AverageofDailyLosAngelesEthanolRailcarPrices
CBOTCorn=AverageoftheDailyMonthAheadValues
CBOT=ChicagoBoardofTrade

600

400

200

0
1/1/04
4/1/04
7/1/04
10/1/04
1/1/05
4/1/05
7/1/05
10/1/05
1/1/06
4/1/06
7/1/06
10/1/06
1/1/07
4/1/07
7/1/07
10/1/07
1/1/08
4/1/08
7/1/08
10/1/08
1/1/09
4/1/09
7/1/09
10/1/09
1/1/10
4/1/10
7/1/10
10/1/10
1/1/11
4/1/11
7/1/11
10/1/11
1/1/12
4/1/12
7/1/12
10/1/12
1/1/13
4/1/13
7/1/13
10/1/13
1/1/14
4/1/14
7/1/14
10/1/14
1/1/15
4/1/15
7/1/15
10/1/15
1/1/16
4/1/16
7/1/16
10/1/16
1/1/17
4/5/17
4/10/17
4/13/17
4/19/17
200
4/20/2017 96
 U.S.EthanolPlantsOperatingStatus
18,000 220

16,000

NumberofEthanolPlants Operating&Idle
170
14,000
MillionsofGallonsPerYear

12,000
UnderConstruction
120
10,000 IdlePlants

OperatingPlants
8,000
EthanolPlants 70
12 plants idle as of Sept. 2016
6,000 2.7 percent of U.S. capacity

4,000
20
Source: Energy Information Administration,
Renewable Fuels Association, Nebraska
2,000 Energy Office & Energy Commission
analysis.
0 30
Jan'01
Jan'03
Jan'05
Jan'07
Jan'09
Jan'10

May12
Aug12
May13

May16
Mar12
Jan'99

Oct.14
Jun11
Jan12

Feb14

Dec15

Sep16
Apr11

Jul13

Jul15
4/20/2017 97
 California Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock Prices
(January 2016 - April 18, 2017)
250
Ethanol Railcar LA
225 Spot Alkylate Gulf (+Transport)
Spot CARBOB LA
200

175
Cents per Gallon

150

125
550

100 525
500
Prices Back to Jan. 2010
E85 blending currently 475
450
425
uneconomical. Favorable 400

75 375
350
zero percent of the time

Cents per Gallon

325
300
275
during 2017 Y-T-D. 250
225

50 200
175
150
125

Ethanol blender differential narrows 100

75

25 from 7.3 to 0.3 cpg more than gasoline

50
25
0

1/4/10
4/4/10
7/4/10
10/4/10
1/4/11
4/4/11
7/4/11
10/4/11
1/4/12
4/4/12
7/4/12
10/4/12
1/4/13
4/4/13
7/4/13
10/4/13
1/4/14
4/4/14
7/4/14
10/4/14
1/4/15
4/4/15
7/4/15
10/4/15
1/4/16
4/4/16
7/4/16
10/4/16
1/4/17
4/4/17
as of April 18.
0
1/4/16
1/25/16
2/15/16
3/7/16
3/28/16
4/18/16
5/9/16
5/30/16
6/20/16
7/11/16
8/1/16
8/22/16
9/12/16
10/3/16
10/24/16
11/14/16
12/5/16
12/26/16
1/16/17
2/6/17
2/27/17
3/20/17
4/10/17
4/20/2017 98
 EthanolRINCreditValues1/4/16to4/19/17
320

270
2016EthanolRIN
2017EthanolRIN
220 2016CellulosicEthanolRIN
CentsPerGallon

2017CellulosicEthanolRIN

170

120

70

Source: Oil Price Information Service

20
1/4/16
1/25/16
2/15/16
3/7/16
3/28/16
4/18/16
5/9/16
5/30/16
6/20/16
7/11/16
8/1/16
8/22/16
9/12/16
10/3/16
10/24/16
11/14/16
12/5/16
12/26/16
1/16/17
2/6/17
2/27/17
3/20/17
4/10/17
4/20/2017 99
 U.S. Ethanol Production 1979 - 2016
18,000

Ethanol production for 2016 increased to a

16,000
record 15.329 billion gallons, 3.53 percent
higher than 2015.
14,000
Millions of Gallons Per Year

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000
Source: Energy Information
Administration, Ethanol Producer
4,000 Magazine & Energy Commission analysis.

2,000

0
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
4/20/2017 100
 U.S.ImportsofFuelEthanol
120
Sources: Energy Information Administration Other Countries
& Energy Commission analysis. Canada
Trinidad & Tobago
100
Thousands of Barrels Per Day

Brazil imports averaged 12.7 TBD during Jamaica

January 2017. El Salvador
Costa Rica
80
Brazil

60

40

20

0
Jul-04

Jul-05

Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16
Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17
4/20/2017 101
 U.S. Imports & Exports for Ethanol
1989 through January 2017
140
Thousands of Barrels Per Day

Exportsinclude: Sources: Energy

2207106010 Undenaturedethylalcoholfor fuel Information Administration,
120 2207106090 Undenaturedethylalcoholfor nonbeverage USDA Foreign Agricultural
2207200010 Denaturedethylalcoholforfuel Service & Energy
2207200090 Denaturedethylalcoholotherthanforfuel Commission analysis.
100 Net exports rise from 75.3 to
80.8 TBD
80 Imports

Exports

60

40

20

0
Feb-08

Feb-09

Feb-10

Feb-11

Feb-12

Feb-13

Feb-14

Feb-15

Feb-16
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007

Aug-08

Aug-09

Aug-10

Aug-11

Aug-12

Aug-13

Aug-14

Aug-15

Aug-16
May-08

May-09

May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16
Nov-08

Nov-09

Nov-10

Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-13

Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16
4/20/2017 102
 Brazil & U.S. Imports & Exports for Ethanol
2008 through January 2017
80
Exportsinclude:
Thousands of Barrels Per Day

2207106010 Undenaturedethylalcoholfor fuel

2207106090 Undenaturedethylalcoholfor nonbeverage
60 2207200010 Denaturedethylalcoholforfuel Net exports to Brazil drop
2207200090 Denaturedethylalcoholotherthanforfuel from 32.6 to 32.5 TBD

40

20

0
Jan-08
Apr-08

Jan-09
Apr-09

Jan-10
Apr-10

Jan-11
Apr-11

Jan-12
Apr-12

Jan-13
Apr-13

Jan-14
Apr-14

Jan-15
Apr-15

Jan-16
Apr-16
Oct-08

Oct-09

Oct-10

Oct-11

Oct-12

Oct-13

Oct-14

Oct-15
Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16
-20

-40

Imports Into U.S.

Sources: Energy Information
-60 Administration, USDA Foreign Agricultural Exports to Brazil
Service & Energy Commission analysis.
Net Balance Between Brazil and U.S.
-80
4/20/2017 103
 U.S.EthanolSupply&Demand
1200
Inventory Build or Draw

1000 Net Imports

Production
Thousands of Barrels per Day

Apparent Demand
800

600
Sources: Energy Information Administration
& Energy Commission analysis.

400

200 Demand drops from 959.3 TBD in December

2016 to 859.1 TBD in January 2017.

-200
Jul-04

Jul-05

Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16
Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17
4/20/2017 104
 U.S.EthanolConcentrationinGasoline
12%

Ethanol "BlendWall"
10%

8%

6%
Source: Energy Information Administration

4%
Average concentration drops from 10.30 to 10.10 percent in
all gasoline for January 2017. Can exceed 10 percent blend
2% wall through use of E15 & E85. 2014 E85 sales estimated to
range between 150 and 173 million gallons by U.S. EPA.

0%
Jul05

Jul06

Jul07

Jul08

Jul09

Jul10

Jul11

Jul12

Jul13

Jul14

Jul15

Jul16
Jan05

Jan06

Jan07

Jan08

Jan09

Jan10

Jan11

Jan12

Jan13

Jan14

Jan15

Jan16

Jan17
4/20/2017 105
 U.S.BiodieselBalance
200

Biodieseldemand drops to156.37thousand barrels perdayinDecember 2016.

150
2016 demand 37.8 percenthigher than2015.
ThousandsofBarrelsPerDay

100
*Y-T-D imports through December 2016
averaging 30.8 percent of supply.

50

50
Production NetImports
Sources: EIA & Energy Commission
InventoryChange ApparentDemand analysis.
100
May09

May14

Jan16
Jan06

Jan11
Jul08

Jul13
Apr07

Dec08

Oct09

Apr12

Dec13

Oct14
Feb08

Feb13
Mar10

Mar15
Aug15

Jun16
Jun06
Nov06

Sep07

Aug10

Jun11
Nov11

Sep12

4/20/2017 106
 1,800
U.S.BiodieselProduction
Sources: Energy Information Administration & Energy
Commission analysis. 1,556
1,600
2016 production total reached a record 1.556 billion
gallons for the year, increase of 23.1 percent compared to
1,359
1,400 2015.
2016 calendar year requirement was 1.90 billion gallons, 1,279 1,263
excluding the use of carry-over RIN credits.
MillionsofGallons

1,200
2017 calendar year requirement is 2.00 billion gallons,
excluding the use of carry-over RIN credits.
967 991
1,000

800
678

600 516
490

400 343
250
200
91
9 10 14 28
0
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016
4/20/2017 107
 U.S.BiodieselExports&PercentofSupply
800 80%
2016 exports totaled 87.9 million
gallons for the year 3.9 percent of 700.3 Sources: Energy
700 total supply. Information Administration 70%
& Energy Commission
analysis.
600 60%
MillionsofGallons

500 50%

400 40%
BiodieselExports

ExportPortionofSupply 281.2 274.9

300 30%

196.3
200 20%
128.3
108.7 75.5 87.8 87.9
82.9
100 10%
35.9
1.7 2.3 4.6 5.2 8.9
0 0%
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016
4/20/2017 108
 U.S.BiodieselConcentrationinDieselFuel
5.0%

Average concentration drops from 4.33 to a 4.12 percent

4.5%
PercentBiodieselinOnRoadDieselFuel

during December 2016 in all on-road diesel fuel. Actual

percentage could be lower, depending on quantity blended
4.0% with heating oil. Total U.S. heating oil market estimated at
6.67 billion gallons for 2015 which equates to a potential of
3.5% 133.4 million gallons of biodiesel assuming a blend of 2
percent by volume.
3.0%

2.5%
Source: Energy Information Administration
2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%
Jul05

Jul06

Jul07

Jul08

Jul09

Jul10

Jul11

Jul12

Jul13

Jul14

Jul15

Jul16
Jan05

Jan06

Jan07

Jan08

Jan09

Jan10

Jan11

Jan12

Jan13

Jan14

Jan15

Jan16
4/20/2017 109
 140
BiofuelRINCreditValues1/4/16to4/19/17
130

120
CentsPerGallon

110

2016BiodieselRIN
100
2017BiodieselRIN
2016AdvancedBiofuelRIN
90 2017AdvancedBiofuelRIN

80

70

Source: Oil Price Information Service

60
1/4/16
1/25/16
2/15/16
3/7/16
3/28/16
4/18/16
5/9/16
5/30/16
6/20/16
7/11/16
8/1/16
8/22/16
9/12/16
10/3/16

12/5/16

1/16/17
2/6/17
2/27/17
3/20/17
4/10/17
10/24/16
11/14/16

12/26/16
4/20/2017 110
 AlternativeVehicles

4/20/2017 111
 U.S.NewVehicleSales
1,200,000

Y-T-D thru March passenger car sales down 11.5 percent

1,100,000
compared to 2016. Light truck sales up 5.9 percent.
1,000,000

900,000
NewVehicleSales

800,000

700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000
PassengerCars
LightTrucks
300,000
Source: Motor Intelligence, AutoData monthly light vehicle deliveries.

200,000
Jun2007
Oct2007

Jun2008
Oct2008

Jun2009
Oct2009
Feb2008

Feb2009

Oct2010

Oct2011

Oct2012

Oct2013

Oct2014

Oct2015

Oct2016
Jun2011

Jun2013

Jun2014

Jun2015

Jun2016
Feb2013

Feb2014

Feb2015

Feb2016

Feb2017
Jun2010

Jun2012
Feb2010

Feb2011

Feb2012

4/20/2017 112
 U.S.NewPassengerCarSalesShare
60% $4.50
Passenger cars portion rises from 37.7 to 39.3 percent during March 2017.
$4.00
PercentageofTotalNewVehicleSales

55%
$3.50

$3.00

DollarsPerGallon
50%
$2.50

$2.00
45%
$1.50

$1.00
40%

PassengerCars $0.50
Source: Motor Intelligence, AutoData monthly
U.S.RetailGasolinePrice light vehicle deliveries and EIA retail prices.
35% $0.00
Jan2012
Jun2007

Sep2008
Feb2009

Dec2009

Apr2013

Jul2014
Nov2012

May2015
Mar2011
Aug2011

Mar2016
Aug2016
Jul2009

Oct2010

Oct2015
Apr2008

May2010

Sep2013
Feb2014

Dec2014
Nov2007

Jan2017
Jun2012

4/20/2017 113
 60,000
U.S.HybridVehicleSales 4.50
34 models March 2017 $28,902 volume-weighted sales price
4.00
50,000
MonthlySalesintheUnitedStates

3.50

40,000 3.00

DollarsPerGallon
2.50
30,000
2.00
Sources: EIA & Hybridcars.com

20,000 1.50
HybridsAllModels

U.S.RetailGasolinePrice 1.00
10,000
0.50
Y-T-D sales up 11.9 percent compared to 2016.

0 0.00
Jan10
May10

Jan11
May11

Jan12
May12

Jan13
May13

Jan14
May14

Jan15
May15

Jan16
May16

Jan17
Sep10

Sep11

Sep12

Sep13

Sep14

Sep15

Sep16
1999Avg.
2003Avg.
2007Avg.

4/20/2017 114
 U.S.PHEVVehicleSales
12,000 4.50
18 models March 2017 $37,050 volume-
weighted sales price 4.00
10,000
MonthlySalesintheUnitedStates

3.50

8,000 3.00

DollarsPerGallon
PHEVVehiclesAllModels
2.50
6,000 U.S.RetailGasolinePrice

2.00

4,000 1.50

1.00
2,000
Sources: EIA & Hybridcars.com
0.50
Y-T-D sales up 56.0 percent compared to 2016.
0 0.00
Dec10
Apr11

Dec11
Apr12

Dec12
Apr13

Dec13
Apr14

Dec14
Apr15

Dec15
Apr16

Dec16
Aug11

Aug12

Aug13

Aug14

Aug15

Aug16
4/20/2017 115
 U.S.BatteryElectricVehicleSales
14,000 4.00

12,000 3.50
MonthlySalesintheUnitedStates

3.00
10,000 Y-T-D sales up 47.4 percent

DollarsPerGallon
compared to 2016.
2.50
8,000
$68,294 volume-weighted
sales price 2.00
6,000
1.50
13 models March 2017
4,000
1.00
BEVsAllModels
2,000 U.S.RetailGasolinePrice 0.50
Sources: EIA & Hybridcars.com

0 0.00
Dec10
Apr11

Dec11
Apr12

Dec12
Apr13

Dec13
Apr14

Dec14
Apr15

Dec15
Apr16

Dec16
Aug11

Aug12

Aug13

Aug14

Aug15

Aug16
4/20/2017 116
 U.S.CleanDieselVehicleSales
20,000 5.00
$51,085 volume-weighted sales price 19 models March 2017
18,000 4.50
MonthlySalesintheUnitedStates

16,000 4.00

14,000 3.50

DollarsPerGallon
12,000 3.00

10,000 2.50

8,000 2.00

6,000 1.50
Y-T-D sales down 54.5 percent compared to 2016.
4,000 1.00
CleanDieselsAllModels
2,000 0.50
U.S.RetailDieselPrice Sources: EIA & Hybridcars.com
0 0.00
May11

May12

May13

May14

May15

May16
Feb11

Feb12

Feb13

Feb14

Feb15

Feb16

Feb17
2010Avg.

Nov11

Nov12

Nov13

Nov14

Nov15

Nov16
Aug11

Aug12

Aug13

Aug14

Aug15

Aug16
4/20/2017 117
 U.S.Alt.VehicleSales PercentofTotal
90,000 6.0%
Sources: EIA & Hybridcars.com
80,000
Sales market share 5.0%
MonthlySalesintheUnitedStates

70,000 rises from 3.27 to 3.41

percent.
60,000 4.0%

PercentofTotal
50,000
3.0%
40,000

30,000 2.0%

20,000
BatteryElectricVehicles PHEVs 1.0%
10,000 CleanDiesels CNGVehicles
Hybrids PercentofTotalVehicleSales
0 0.0%
Jan10
May10

Jan11
May11

Jan12
May12

Jan13
May13

Jan14
May14

Jan15
May15

Jan16
May16

Jan17
1999Avg.
2003Avg.
2007Avg.

Sep10

Sep11

Sep12

Sep13

Sep14

Sep15

Sep16
4/20/2017 118
 $40,000
U.S.LightDutyVehicles WeightedSalesPrice
New vehicles averaged $34,290 in February 34,290
2017, 1.5 percent higher than previous year.
$35,000

$30,000

$25,000

Used vehicles averaged $19,579 in February 19,579

2017, 3.0 percent higher than previous year.
$20,000

$15,000
NewVehicleSales
Sources:NationalAutomobileDealers Association
UsedVehicleSales
dataand CaliforniaEnergyCommissionanalysis.

$10,000
Jan06

May09

Jan11

May14

Jan16
Jul08

Jul13
Apr07

Oct09

Apr12

Oct14
Feb08

Dec08

Feb13

Dec13
Jun06
Nov06

Mar10
Aug10

Jun11
Nov11

Mar15
Aug15

Jun16
Nov16
Sep07

Sep12

4/20/2017 119
 U.S.LightDutyVehicles Newvs.Alternative
$80,000
Hybrid vehicle sales prices are consistently
tracking lower than average vehicle sales prices,
a contributing factor along with greater model
$70,000 availability for the 59.0 percent market share
among alternative-fueled vehicles over the last
12 months.
$60,000 AllNewSalesVolumeWeighted

HybridSalesVolumeWeighted

PHEVSalesVolumeWeighted
$50,000 DieselSalesVolumeWeighted

BEVSalesVolumeWeighted

CNGSalesVolumeWeighted
$40,000
Sources:NationalAutomobileDealers Association,
HybridCars.commonthlysalesdashboarddata, and
CaliforniaEnergyCommissionanalysis.

$30,000

$20,000
Jan06
Jun06
Nov06
Apr07

Feb08
Jul08
Dec08
May09

Mar10
Aug10
Jan11
Jun11
Nov11
Apr12

Feb13
Jul13
Dec13
May14

Mar15
Aug15
Jan16
Jun16
Nov16
Sep07

Oct09

Sep12

4/20/2017 Oct14 120

 NextMeeting May18,2017

American Widgeon (male), Colusa NWR, Colusa County, CA 12/27/16

4/20/2017 121