Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
The Department of Defense has shown increasing concern about further Chinese
militarization and consolidation of control in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) after last
years Arbitral Tribunal Award. When news broke that the China Coast Guard (CCG)
had fired at Filipino fishermen China reacted by quickly announcing they would look
into the matter. Usually China blames the other side and lets its CCG act with impunity.
If Duterte has any strategy it is to use the Philippines position as ASEAN Chair to
promote the current momentum to reach a framework COC under ASEAN auspices. It
should be noted that no bilateral discussions between the Philippines and China on
the WPS has started.
Q3. With the Philippines moving much close to China under Duterte, and Philippines
hosting the event, does this change the dynamics of ASEANs approach to China? Will
ASEAN also now be much more accommodating compared to the previous
administration under Aquino?
ANSWER: There are two answers to your question. The Duterte Administration will
continue to be more accommodating than its predecessor and this will reinforce
ASEANs commitment to negotiate a Code of Conduct with China. Recall that bilateral
ties atrophied under Aquino. ASEAN always viewed the Philippines under President
Aquino as something of wild card if not trouble maker. The Philippines did not consult
in advance when it lodged its claim for an Arbitral Tribunal, for example. Aquino made
other proposals that met with silence from his ASEAN counterparts. And China blamed
lack of progress on the Philippines.
Countries like Vietnam let the Philippines take the point (advance position) on the
South China Sea. Now that Duterte is more accommodating to China, Vietnam has had
to pursue two paths simultaneously seek reassurance from China and lobby within
ASEAN not to roll over. If the Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore and arguably Malaysia
formed a quartet within ASEAN previously, Dutertes policies mean that the quartet
has been reduced to a tripartite grouping. Given the strategic slack in Southeast Asia
caused by the Trump Administrations inaction, ASEAN will continue to pursue the
framework COC and then the formal COC. It is the only diplomatic game in town.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.