Analysis on Traffic Safety and Road Accidents

a Case Study on Selected Roads in Muscat

N.Srinivasa Reddy1

Safiya Addy AL.Barwani2

Pankaj Sarma3
1
Senior Faculty, Built and Natural Environment Department ,Civil Engineering Davison
Caledonian, College of Engineering

Glasgow University, CPO Seeb 111 Sultanate of Oman. (srini8265@gmail.com)

2
Under Graduate Student, Built and Natural Environment Department, Civil Engineering Davison
Caledonian, College of Engineering

Glasgow University, CPO Seeb 111 Sultanate of Oman

safiya11699@cceoman.net

3
Asst Professor, Amity School of Engineering and Technology (ASET), Department of Civil Engineering,
Amity University Jaipur India pankaj sharma Civil Amity (ximb.pankaj@gmail.com)

Abstract:

Highway safety is of serious concern not only to the Highway Authorities but
also to the whole Nation, as they involve in loss of property and human life.
Increase in vehicular growth and there by the traffic on Muscat roads is of
serious concern. Even though the accidents growth rate is declaiming over
the last ten years, but the number of accidents is of serious concern to the
Authorities. The reasons for accidents are many fold and among them, high
speeding of vehicles is the major factor contributing to the accidents. This
study aimed at conducting an investigation to understand the causes of
accidents for improving highway safety in Muscat. The methodology involved
is discussions with the Authorities, elicit the opinion of Royal Oman Police
(ROP) and collection of data from ROP and field road inventory data. Also
operating speeds of the vehicles during peak and non-peak hours are
collected on the selected roads to validate the hypothesis. Data collected
from primary and secondary sources, analysis of vehicular speed data and
accident statistical data facilitated to draw conclusions for the traffic safety
concerns.
Keywords: Highway Traffic Safety, Highway Accidents, road accident factors,
analysis of accidents.

Introduction:

In Sultanate of Oman, economic development and modernization coupled

with infrastructure development brought structural changes in peoples life
styles and vehicular growth over the last four decades. Increased vehicular
ownerships is the major causative factor for road accidents and is a problem
of serious concern to authorities, the Royal Oman Police (ROP). Muscat
population has been increased from 0.7M in the 2006 to 1.3M in the year
2015 showing an annual growth rate of 6.0% over the last decade. Whereas
the vehicle registrations in the country for the same period were recorded as
0.3M to 0.7M showing an annual compound growth rate of 8.8%. Muscat
being the capital city of Oman most of the vehicles are operated in the
capital city region.

According to official reports of the Ministry of Health (MoH) in Oman,

highway and road accidents is of serious concern as they are resulting in
maximum number of premature deaths and disability(MoH, 2009). The
World Health Organization (WHO) has also ranked Oman at fourth place
among the Arabian Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states and 57th
worldwide as far as the occurrence of traffic accidents and resulting injuries
and deaths are concerned (WHO, 2009). The incidence of high accident
rates on Muscat Roads in Oman, require a scientific study to take preventive
measure to reduce the accident rates. The reason for the occurrence of
accidents is multifold, involving human factors, vehicular factors and the
road way factors. In this research paper an investigative study is carried to
establish accident causative factors and their quantification. Also indicators
for the measurement of accidents is developed to assess the trends in
occurrence of accidents which will help the policy makers to take decisions.

Literature Review:

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) defines safety as the crash frequency
and/or crash severity and collision type for a specific time period, at a given
location, and for a given set of geometric and operational conditions.
Safety is defined in similar terms by the American Association of State
Highway and Transportation Officials. More number of accidents are being
reported in developing countries compared to developed countries. Banik
et.al(2011) reported that road traffic accidents in developing countries is
worse and of serious concern due to the facts under reporting of accidents
and use of scrapped vehicles which are not removed from the records.
Nantulya (2002) reported that in developing countries poor people are the
vulnerable section mostly affected by road accident and crashes. In 1998,
more than 85 percent of deaths and 90 percent of disability occurred due to
road traffic accidents occurred in developing countries. Budania. M. et al,
(2014)., concluded that regular checks on fitness of the vehicles and
checks at all the stages of road execution like planning, construction,
operation and maintenance is required to achieve accident free roads.
Chelugo & Chepchieng et al, (2015)., collected accident information from the
police stations in Nairobi and also elicited the opinion of road users on
highway safety and developed indicators for accident frequency and
accident crash rate. Farag,S.Ibrahim et al, (2014)., analyzed accident data
at signalized and un signalized intersections and roundabouts in Dhofar
Governorate, Oman and concluded most of the accident are occurring at T-
Intersections. And concluded rear-end accidents are the most frequent
occurring accident types at urban intersections.

Sumaila & Abdul Ganiyu Femi (2013)., carried a study in Nigeria on trends in
road crashes and gave a critical review of current road safety approaches
with a view to identifying their defects and deficiencies in tackling the traffic
accident problem in the country. Montello (2009) evaluated highway
geometric design parameters for the effectiveness of highway safety. It is
reported that all the curves are characterized by low radius and high
deflection angle, limited sight distance, and limited super elevation.
Measures for improvement of horizontal curves are suggested. Vorgelegt et
al (2013) investigated the effects of route familiarity and driving conditions
(open road vs. car following) on visual scanning patterns of experienced
drivers. Their results revealed that the driver's visual scanning
systematically depends on the task to be performed. Occurrence of accidents
on highways is a result of many complex factors such as highway geometry,
driver behavior and human factors, speed limits, vehicle functions, and
environmental conditions (Hashim, I.H. (2006)). Effective analysis and
understanding of the accident causative parameters facilitate to improve
highway safety performance. Al-Maniri et al (2013) carried statistical
analysis of the data on road traffic fatalities in Oman between1995 to 2009
and concluded that overall, mortality increased by around 50%. There was a
significant increase in the proportion of deaths and death rates among
individuals aged 26-50 years, males, Omani nationals, and drivers. A.S.
Hakkert et.al.,(2002) estimated accident rates at different at grade intersections as a function of
average daily traffic volumes.
Aim and Objectives

The aim of this study is to understand the causes of road accidents and
thereby to suggest preventive measures for the improvement in highway
safety in Muscat. Specific objectives of the study include:

To collect road accident data for the last few years and analyze the
reasons for the causes of accidents.
To collect speed data on selected roads during peak and non-peak
hours to examine the role of speed in accidents.
To categorize causes of accidents in to various groups, human,
highway geometry, vehicle condition, environmental etc.
To identify the causes of accidents and thereby to suggest preventive
measures for accident reduction.

Methodology:
Data Collection: Accident data from Royal Omani Police (ROP) and the
other data on population, length of roads in Muscat is collected from
National Center for Statistics & Information (NCSI). The collected data is
collated to establish indicators and the trends in accidents over the last few
years. Personal interviews from the officials of ROP helped the investigators
to understand the reasons for the occurrence of accidents and ongoing
accident preventive measures. Also operating speeds of the vehicles
captured on the selected roads, analyzed and collated to draw conclusions
that high speed is the major causative factor responsible for road traffic
accidents (RTA)

Data Analysis:
Accident data collected from various notified agencies is collated analyzed
and presented in the form of tables and graphs for comprehensive
understanding.

Table:1 Accidents Trends in Muscat

Accidents rate per

Year Population NO. Accidents Thousand
Population
2000 661145 2236 3.38
2001 685676 5650 8.24
2002 709776 3219 4.54
2003 632073 5707 9.03
2004 664826 5190 7.81
2005 695432 4861 6.99
 2006 718917 4557 6.34
2007 785515 3173 4.04
2008 834760 2738 3.28
2009 949694 2487 2.62
2010 775878 2896 3.73
2011 1003742 2978 2.97
2012 1093360 2759 2.52
2013 1155861 2582 2.23
2014 1210480 2260 1.87
2015 1281232 2107 1.64
Source: Collated data from ROP and NCSI 2016

Road Traffic Accide nts in Muscat

Accidents rate Per 1000

population
Number of Accid etns per 1000Population
Linear (Accidents rate
Per 1000 population )

Year

Figure: 1 Road Traffic Accident Trends in Muscat.

Table:2 Trends in growth of Road length, accident and Accidents per km road
length in Muscat

Single Double Paved Total Cumulativ Accident Accident

Year
Lane Lane Road Road e Length s s Per Km
2010 68 54 25 201 201 2896 14.41
2011 124 105 85 419 620 2978 4.80
2012 106 0 1077 1183 1803 2759 1.53
2013 280 0 176 456 2259 2582 1.14
2014 410.2 2 40 454.2 2713.2 2260 0.83
2015 304.6 6 258 574.6 3287.8 2107 0.64
Source(ROP,2016)
 Accidents Per Km Road Length in Muscat
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00 f(x) = - 2.32x + 4669.07
Accidents Per Km R = 0.65
6.00 Linear ()

4.00
2.00
0.64
0.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Year

Figure: 2 Trends in Accidents per Km length.

Table 3 Causes of Accidents in Muscat governorate*

Accidents/Years 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Speed 1867 1637 1183 1373 1444 1388 1753 1089 1024
Fatigue 0 2 7 4 4 5 1 1 0
Neglects 800 241 241 188 215 247 312 193 245
Drunk Driving 51 83 98 134 93 87 84 61 31
Overtaking 33 107 67 58 83 84 66 39 39
Weather 1 1 43 18 5 5 8 4 2
condition
Sudden Stopping 33 38 44 32 38 50 14 6 0
Safety Distance 188 199 109 138 310 269 302 257 246
Improper Act 185 397 644 890 692 545 533 554 466
Vehicle Defects 13 27 38 44 70 51 57 36 44
Road Defects 2 6 13 17 24 28 21 20 4
Total 3173 2738 2487 2896 2978 2759 3151 2260 2101
Source(ROP,2016)
 Accident Causitive Factors

466 44 4
246
1024
2
39 245
31

Speed Fatigue Neglects

Drunk Driving Overtaking Weather condition
Sudden Stopping Safety Distance Improper Act
Vehicle Defects Road Defects

Figure: 3 Accident causative factors

From the figures presented in the table-3 and further analysis it is observed
that the three major factors responsible for RTA are:

High Speeding of vehicles (49%)

Wrong decision and improper judgment of the driver while driving
(25%)
Negligent driving not following the rules (10%).

Operating speeds of the vehicles are captured on two selected roads namely
the Express Highway and service road for the peak and non-peak hours. Two
road mid-block segment were selected for capturing vehicle speeds on
Express Highway which is located in Muscat, Al-Hail region between Airport
to Al-Hail and a service road, which is also from the AL Hail South region
adjacent to the Express highway. Mid-block traffic volume counts and
operating speeds are captured with the radar speed gun were collated and
analyzed. Summary of the analysis is presented below tables.

Table: 4 Operating speeds on Express highway

Operating Speeds Captured During

Morning Peak 7.00AM-8.00AM On
Express Highway
Number of
Speed Vehicle
Mean Speed KMPH Recorded
30-40 35 84
 40-50 45 152
50-60 55 185
60-70 65 140
70-80 75 79
80-90 85 25
90-100 95 15
100-110 105 5

Table: 5 Operating speeds on the Service Road

Operating Speeds Captured During

Morning Peak 7.00AM-8.00AM On
Service Road

Number of
Speed Mean Vehicle
KMPH Speed Recorded
30-40 35 38
40-50 45 88
50-60 55 106
60-70 65 222
70-80 75 157
80-90 85 95
90-100 95 15
100-110 105 18

Frqency Dsitribution of Vehicle Speeds on Express Highway During Morning 7.00AM-8.00AM

Frequency

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Speed in Kmph

Figure: 4 Vehicle Speeds distribution on Express Highway

Cumulative Frequency Distribution of Opearting Speeds on Express Highway During Morning Peak 7.00 AM-8.00AM
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%

Cumulative Frequency 50%

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

Opearting Speed in KMPH

Figure: 5 Cumulative Frequency distribution of speeds on Express Highway

Frqency Dsitribution of Vehicle Speeds on Service Lane During Morning 7.00AM-8.00AM

Fequency No

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Speed Kmph
 Figure: 6Vehicle Speeds distribution on Service Road

Cumulative Frequency Distribution of Opearting Speeds on Service Line During Morning Peak 7.00 AM-8.00AM
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%

Cumulative Frequency 50%

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Speed Kmph

Figure: 7 Cumulative Frequency distribution of speeds on Service Road

Classified vehicle traffic volume counts(CVTVC) for the peak hour duration
also have been collected Summary of the Traffic Volumes and operating
speeds analysis is presented below.

Table: 6 Speed and traffic Volume on Express highway and Service Road

Peak Hour data (7.00AM-8.00AM)

Peak hour 85th
Traffic Design Mean Percentile
Description of
Lane Volume Speed Speed Speed.
Sl.No the Road Configuration PCU KMPH KMPH KMPH
Express 6 Lane
1 highway Divided 7029 120 57 67
2 Lane
2 Service Road Undivided 3839 60 66 75
Non-Peak Hour Data(11.00AM-12.00PM)
Non-Peak 85th
hour Design Mean Percentile
Description of Lane Traffic Speed Speed Speed.
Sl.No the Road Configuration Volume KMPH KMPH KMPH
Express 6 Lane
1 highway Divided 2600 120 99.12 112
 2 Lane
2 Service Road Undivided 1565 60 67 75

Interview with ROP officials

Opinion of the ROP officials (15,16,17) were elicited to obtain their views on, ongoing traffic
safety awareness programmes and safety measures for the reduction of accidents. In this
connection various issues pertaining to traffic safety, such as the role of vehicle, the road, the
human elements in RTA, use of mobile while driving, safety of school children, sense of
responsibility and traffic discipline, knowledge of driving rules, road maintenance and finally
the strategies of ROP to reduce fatal accidents have discussed with the ROP. The discussions
gave a comprehensive understanding of RTA issues and preventive measures adopted which in
turn helped the authors to draw conclusions.

Discussions:

From the secondary data collected, discussions with the ROP officials and
analysis of traffic and speed characteristics, inferences are drawn. Consistent
efforts by the authorities and ROP, it is seen the trends in accidents are
continuously declaiming. From the analysis of RTA data, it can been seen that
the major factors responsible for accidents are, high speeding, negligent
driving and improper judgment. In Muscat the Express highways are
designed for 120Kmph and the service roads are designed for 60 Kmph. The
speeds captured on the express highway and service road reveal the mean
and 85th percentile speed are 65Kmph and 75KMPH respectively, which are
higher than the normal designated speeds. The service road is a secondary
road where it is having direct access to multiple land uses and residential
areas and also the roads are designed for very high accessibility, where the
driver is supposed to maintain low mobility. At the moment high availability
of mobility and accessibility on service roads is also one of the factors
responsible for making these roads more vulnerable to RTA.
Primary roads the Express highway and are designed for high mobility and
low accessibility with a designed speed of 120Kmph. Normal expected level
of service (LoS) on the express highway would be A. But during the peak
hours the level of service falls (LoS- C and D) due to high traffic volumes than
the designed capacity. It is recorded that during the peak hour the traffic
volumes are more than the designed capacity and the mean speed is
57Kmph and 85th percentile speed is 67Kmph. The 85th percentile speed is
comparatively high for the level of service C and D, during the peak hour
prevailing conditions. Also the most vulnerable locations on the express
highway are at-grade intersections and Y- Junctions where the service lanes
are merging with express highway. It is reported that rear end collisions are
also most common feature on the express highway which is result of wrong
assessment and improper judgment by the driver. To monitor the operating
speeds, ROP has installed cameras all along the expressway to capture the
vehicles which are exceeding the speed limits. All such captured vehicle
drivers are penalized by heavy fines which is automatically done using
Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) technologies. Also use of mobile on
express highway is strictly prohibited, but some drivers are violating the
rules. The use of mobile while driving is resulting in improper assessment of
situation and wrong judgment by the driver making him to commit accidents.
Even though the accident rate is declining, still the situation is alarming,
other secondary factors contributing for high RTA is: high vehicle
ownerships, vehicle low occupancy rate and low dependency on public
transport

Concluding Remarks

In this technical paper the causative factors responsible for the RTA in Muscat
is reviewed. Proposed hypothesis, high speeding of vehicles is the major
contributory factor for the RTA is validated through the field studies.
Consistent efforts by the ROP over the last one decade could bring down the
accident rates significantly from 3.8 to 1.6 per thousand population which is
highly commendable. Sultanate of Oman aim at bring the accident rates
below 0.5 in the years to come. Constant monitoring of operating speeds and
imposing heavy penalty on high speeding vehicles would help in accident
reduction significantly. Also there is need to monitor the use of mobile use
while driving, which would significantly improve accident reduction. High
vehicle ownerships low occupancy and low dependability on public transport
are the other reasons for RTA. Through policy changes and by offering
incentives, it would be possible to bring changes in the mindset of its citizens
to go for car pooling and use of public mode of transport, which would
greatly reduce traffic congestion and accidents on Muscat roads.

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